What Is Matthews' Future in Green Bay?
By jasonperone
Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews has made many memorable plays in his time as a Packer.
There was the time he took the ball right out of the hands of Adrian Peterson and ran it all the way in for a touchdown. Or the time he nabbed a big pick-six against Eli Manning and the Giants to help keep the Packers undefeated late in 2011. Of course, the most famous of them all is the big hit and forced fumble in Super Bowl XLV just moments after linebackers coach Kevin Greene told Matthews "It is time" (to make a big play).
There are many others over the course of the eight seasons Matthews has been in Green Bay, but this year might be his curtain call in green and gold. He'll count over $15 million against this year's salary cap and under his current deal, if the Packers were to pick up the option for 2018, he would count another $11.4 million. That's simply not going to happen.
Matthews has struggled with various ailments throughout his career but a quick glance at his stat sheet shows that there have only been three seasons in which he appeared in less than 15 games. It's not so much the missing time that has been the issue. It's the time that he is playing but isn't effective.
Quickly establishing himself as a high-motor wrecking crew early in his career, Matthews carries a presence and reputation with him on the field. While it's clear that he's not the same player he was years ago, Matthews still manages to make a splash play during most games. Things can quickly change but as of this very moment, opposing offenses still have to respect him.
Matthews just turned 31 years old in May. Time, wear and tear and injuries have likely started taking a toll on his speed and ability to play a full game at full effect. But he's still likely to be of interest beyond the 2017 season. The question is: how much of that interest belongs to the Packers?
The team has other priorities, however. Well, at least one big one.
With Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr signing a 5-year, $125 million deal yesterday, Aaron Rodgers is going to want more money and years added to his deal very soon. Whatever the dollar amount ends up being that the Packers pay Rodgers (and he deserves every penny), it's going to be a boatload.
The Packers, led by Vice President of Football Administration/Player Finance Russ Ball and General Manager Ted Thompson, have long been very diligent about managing the salary cap. They've been able to keep their top players while leaving enough to keep the roster competitive and rarely having to let go of a player they want to keep. The hope is that even after signing Rodgers, the Packers still have room to sign more of their own.
Is Matthews to be one of them? Safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and wide receiver Davante Adams both appear to be at the front of the line among young players up for new deals.
Clinton-Dix had his fifth-year option picked up by the team and is under contract for at least the next two seasons, but will eventually be looking to be paid like one of the top at his position.
Adams is entering his fourth and final season of his rookie deal and will become a free agent after 2017. At present pace and unless he falls apart this year, Adams should also be in line for a new contract and he won't be the cheapest guy on the payroll either.
Both Clinton-Dix and Adams are younger players and have more years to offer. The team may also have other young players they want to extend. That age factor along with the number of players they want to re-sign could help make the decision on Matthews for the Packers.
Unless Clay is willing to take a team-friendly deal, he won't be back in Green Bay. He's at that tough spot where age, production, durability and cap space collide. As far as his production, Matthews hasn't registered double-digit sacks since 2014 and has just 11.5 in the last two seasons combined.
Matthews has been a good teammate on the field, moving around where the defense needs him. He's respected in the locker room and the kind of player that you would much rather have on your side than on the other. This season will help tell which direction he's headed in with the Packers but enjoy what the Claymaker does on the field this season. It may be our last chance to see him in a Packers uniform.
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Jason is a freelance writer on staff since 2012 and also co-hosts Cheesehead TV Live, Pulse of the Pack and Pack A Day podcasts. You can follow him on Twitter here
Comments (34)
Lphill
June 23, 2017 at 06:14 am
The Packers defense is better when Clay is on the field. We need to retain him , the guy is a gamer , had played hurt do to lack of depth , let's see him healthy and in a nice rotation I think it's a positive outlook.
carusotrap
June 23, 2017 at 07:03 am
That may be true, but he's become dangerously close to being a JAG. That's not to take away from his early days, but I think his PR and branding guys are at least as good as he is.
The hand grenade I'd like to toss into the room is this: is CMIII going to the NFL HoF? If your answer is no, then how do you re-up him at north of $10 mil when you've got to pay the aforementioned guys, and you know AR is going to be closer to $30 mil than not?
RCPackerFan
June 23, 2017 at 07:12 am
One of the most positive takes on Mathews that I have seen for a while. I completely agree btw.
dobber
June 23, 2017 at 08:55 am
I wouldn't say "positive" so much as I would say "objective". So many posting here swing heavily in either direction. This lays the situation and variables out very plainly.
RCPackerFan
June 23, 2017 at 09:03 am
This is very true. I guess according to most of the other posts its positive.
Handsback
June 23, 2017 at 07:35 am
This is very true, however when he's hurt...he's JAG (see comment below). How often is he hurt? The last few years, quite a bit. So Green Bay needs another CM3, but right now he's not on the roster. I would have loved for Green Bay to draft Spence last year to groom for CM3, but Clark was a very solid pick and in the long run a better pick.
NE gets rid of guys like CM3 before they hit that downward performance slope. This same NE team also picks up vets (on the cheap) after their prime for specialized duties that gives them maximum flexibility. TT and MM see that Clay has some good years left. If he can remain healthy, then they might use him as a wrecking ball without any specified position. His salary may be too high but I bet that won't be addressed until after the season.
jeremyjjbrown
June 23, 2017 at 12:05 pm
"let's see him healthy"
That's the real problem though. Sadly, he just can't stay healthy. When he is healthy he worth the money, but that seams like it's about 6-8 games per season for several years running.
egbertsouse
June 23, 2017 at 07:41 am
One of the most overpaid player in the League. He should be restructured or cut. GB can't afford quality FAs (unless they're bargains) because Ted throws money at aging, injury-prone players like Fabio and Cobb.
RCPackerFan
June 23, 2017 at 08:24 am
Thompson does not go after expensive free agents. It has nothing to do with what the players on the current roster make or don't make. The most expensive free agent he went after was Charles Woodson, and he basically was signed at a bargain price back then.
Thompson bargain shops. If he went to a store to buy cloths he would rather go to Goodwill then to Kohls.
He could have paid out more money this year to Cook, instead he took that money and brought in Bennett, Kendricks.
A pretty good example of why Thompson prefers to build his team from within and not go after expensive free agents was from a couple of years ago. Everyone was up in arms that the Packers didn't throw out top money to Jarius Byrd. He signed an enormous deal with the Saints and still fans were upset that the Packers didn't go after him. Fast forward 2-3 years and Byrd is no longer with the Saints and is going to be on their cap for a while.
dobber
June 23, 2017 at 08:56 am
Aging? Randall Cobb is 26, dude.
Ferrari Driver
June 23, 2017 at 08:23 am
15 million will go a long way to signing younger up and comers currently on the Packers' roster who will be free agents, especially Dix, and still keep the salary cap in check.
My guess would be that the true value of Mathews by next season will be in the five million area. He has been a terrific player, but the reality of the NFL is that it is a young man's game and he is on the wrong side of that formula, playing a position (edge rusher/linebacker) where youth, speed, and durability are key factors.
dobber
June 23, 2017 at 09:00 am
I'm not sure what CMIII would bring on the open market. It's a premium position in the NFL. I would have guessed that if the Packers cut him this off-season, someone would've given him $8-9M easy...but then Connor Barwin didn't get very much (although I suspect his own "selectiveness" may have hurt him, there). Hard to say.
Thegreatreynoldo
June 23, 2017 at 04:16 pm
Somewhere above Hali, around Orakpo and Mcphee, and less than Sheard area. That is probably $7.5M to $8.5M or so, depending on structure. Hali is older, but the other three are considerably younger.
gr7070
June 23, 2017 at 08:29 am
"Unless Clay is willing to take a team-friendly deal, he won't be in the NFL."
There, I fixed that for you.
The guy literally wasn't one of the top 75 *OLBs* in the entire NFL last year! He wasn't very good the two years before that either. I fully expect Perry and Fackrell to be better and I wouldn't be shocked if Elliot was too, and frankly nor Vince either.
He doesn't win one on one matchups any more, hasn't for years. He is a JAG, right now, even when "NFL-healthy".
There's no animosity; it's simply matter of fact. The guy is old; his body is older; and he's a shell of his former self. That's what happens eventually to NFL stars. It's ok to recognize it. Move on...
RCPackerFan
June 23, 2017 at 08:34 am
'The guy literally wasn't one of the top 75 *OLBs* in the entire NFL last year! He wasn't very good the two years before that either. '
Yeah, he was completely unnoticeable at OLB in 2015.
dobber
June 23, 2017 at 08:57 am
lol!
gr7070
June 23, 2017 at 10:32 am
Those are separate sentences there, for that very reason.
dschwalm
June 27, 2017 at 11:09 am
Finally, some objective observations.
dobber
June 23, 2017 at 09:16 am
I really don't know what to think of CMIII's chances to earn his 2018 paycheck. It will likely come down to two factors:
1. Does he stay healthy in 2017? I say this, and not just a comment on how he produces, because historically a healthy and available CMIII is a productive CMIII.
2. How does the three-headed Biegrelliott juggernaut step up in 2017? If they are injury-riddled or show that they're not ready to take on major roles in the defense, the Packers will be over a barrell because they haven't addressed the pass rush significantly in the draft over the last 3 years, and will be hard-pressed to get a premier rusher on the open market with the other mouths they currently need to feed.
CMIII is essentially on a series of one-year deals at this point. He's in a position where he must produce. He's going to get his 2017 money. That's a given. But after this season, he's at the mercy of the Packers for his 2018 money. I think he could still earn that last year of his deal with a strong year by both him and by Perry. We saw last season that Perry needs a threat on the other side of the defense to be at his best rushing the passer...CMIII's effectiveness should be judged in combination with Perry.
In all honesty, CMIIIs 2018 cap number of $11.4M is really not all that high among pass-rushers (DEs and LBs), and he's likely to slide down the list as new contracts sign in the upcoming off-season. If CMIII is let go after the season, which I think has a reasonable likelihood of happening, it would likely put the Packers on the hook to draft an edge player high in 2018...and maybe 2019, too...and force them to wait for that player to grow into the role. But the Packers need to address other needs high in the draft in recent years, and their unwillingness to attend the edge position in the draft recently, works in his favor.
stockholder
June 23, 2017 at 09:22 am
CMlll only has to stay healthy and on the field to get his money. Peppers showed us that. TT honored his contract. So regardless what may be said about effectiveness. He is this teams leader. Hall of Fame player, and still a fan favorite. You pay the fan favorite.
gr7070
June 23, 2017 at 10:44 am
Matthews is #80 on the sack list.
There's over 50 players ahead of him not in the HOF! He has so little chance at the HOF it's a joke he's even mentioned as such.
www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/sacks_career.htm
dobber
June 23, 2017 at 10:48 am
Packer HOF, probably. I think he needs a real, long-term renaissance to be an NFL HOF player.
CJBauckham
June 23, 2017 at 01:29 pm
Biegrelliot! Also known as Cerberus, three headed guardian of hades gates!
J0hn Denver's Gavel
June 23, 2017 at 09:53 pm
Those were an amazing 3 paragraphs you wrote, very illustrated, fun read! Loved the 3 headed monster's name.
Thegreatreynoldo
June 24, 2017 at 04:40 pm
As long as one or two of "Biegrelliott" turn out to be beasts, rather looking fierce and acting like the cowardly lion.
croatpackfan
June 23, 2017 at 09:52 am
For Clay Matthews I forsee wealthy and long future with Packers...
Packer_Fan
June 23, 2017 at 03:19 pm
The Packers are better with him on the field. Just like another comment made. This isn't like Sutton where they probably knew a replacement was available. There is still a lot of 2017 cap money to be spent to retain Adams and Clinton-Dix to worry about Matthews. Matthews is still one of the better players on defense. He has been a team player by moving to the inside. Is this an article on creating an issue where none is there?
jasonperone
June 23, 2017 at 06:27 pm
Not an issue, a discussion. And thank you for doing just that. That's what it's all about
J0hn Denver's Gavel
June 23, 2017 at 09:55 pm
Don Sutton?
packerbackerjim
June 23, 2017 at 04:15 pm
Matthews will be as good/great as his hamstring will allow. He is aware of the realities of life in the NFL. I am certain he has pursued remedies to allow him a future in GB or elsewhere. We will see if his hammy cooperates.
PatrickGB
June 23, 2017 at 09:27 pm
Clay still is quite disruptive. Sure his cap # is high, but the cap goes up each year. The Packers tend to be loyal on contracts and that makes this team attractive to FA's. I really doubt any change is made.
NickPerry
June 24, 2017 at 06:28 am
If Matthews is moved around as McCarthy suggests he will AND he can stay relatively healthy CMIII will be productive in 2017. The day's of beating most LT's in the NFL are fewer and far between for Matthews but he still has to e accounted for. Like a few have pointed out already, the Packers are a better defense with Matthews on the field.
IMO dobber made an excellent point. Perry's numbers are much, much better when Matthews is on the field with him vs when he's not. I think Thompson may have made a mistake not bringing in a veteran OLB like Barwin or even Dumervil but that could still happen once cut downs begin. If Matthews can be productive this season it wouldn't surprise me to see TT restructure Matthews 2018 contract by adding on another year or two. At the end of the day I'm happy Matthews is still here.
Bearmeat
June 24, 2017 at 10:46 am
I've made my feelings on CM3 patently clear in the past. I think he'll be gone after this year unless he starts using again or unless he takes a paycut. Or (hopefully this doesn't come to fruition) unless GB has literally no one else who can rush the passer at all after this year. Again.
He's JAG now. A very much overpaid JAG. Again. Hope I am proven wrong.
Thegreatreynoldo
June 24, 2017 at 04:45 pm
I kept thinking CM3 is very average, yet every time I analyze his pressures per snap or tackles per snap, his results are way better than I anticipated.
His days of beating LTs on a regular basis are over, but he does quite a few things well. Somewhat above average player until he shows otherwise by his play, who likely need to restructure in 2018.