3 Biggest Questions Facing the Packers on Defense
The Green Bay Packers are just days away from reporting to training camp for the 2019 season and they will do so with plenty of optimism. There will also be plenty of questions.
With a new head coach in Matt LaFleur, a new offensive system and some new pieces on both sides of the ball, hope springs eternal in Green Bay.
Certainly, there are reasons to be cautious with our optimism as the Packers try to avoid a third-straight season of missing the playoffs.
While the offense will be essential in turning things around, with a big part of that centered on getting Aaron Rodgers back to playing at an elite level, the defense needs to hold up its end of the bargain too.
Mike Pettine was kept on as defensive coordinator because he made progress last season and with two first-round picks as well as three starting-level free agents, there is no excuse for the defense not to be a top-10 or at least a top-12 unit.
All the pieces are there. It's just a matter of it all coming together and with that in mind, here are three key questions facing the defense:
Will the secondary meet expectations?
Over the past few seasons, few position groups have gotten more investment than the secondary. The Packers doubled down with the drafting of Darnell Savage in the first round of the draft. That gives the Packers three corners and two safeties picked within the first two rounds over the past three years.
At times, those young players such as Kevin King, Josh Jackson, Jaire Alexander and even at times, Josh Jones, have all played well. But their play has either been inconsistent or there have been nagging injury issues. At any rate, the play at corner hasn't been up to snuff for years and it needs to change. Alexander showed All-Pro potential last season, while King and Jackson have both had their moments.
Adrian Amos should be a steady presence at the safety position and if the Packers young talent can make the impact they believe it can, Pettine should have all the pieces required to build a really good secondary group.
Will the pass rush improve?
The pass rush wasn't terrible last season but it certainly wasn't consistent enough. Over the past few years, that has been a constant problem and that's why Green Bay invested a ton in the position. Not only did the team sign Preston Smith and ZaDarius Smith in free agency, but it also spent a first-round pick on Rashan Gary, a DE/OLB out of Michigan with huge potential.
If things work out with Gary, he could be someone in the mold of Khalil Mack or Julius Peppers. The kid is that gifted athletically and he's tougher than most give him credit for being. If the Packers can tap into his potential, it could give them the difference maker on the edge they have been looking for ever since Clay Matthews started to decline.
In the short term, Gary is just a piece of the puzzle and the Smiths along with Kyler Fackrell will have a big say in how things go this season. The interior rush will also be key.
Kenny Clark has gotten better and better in that role and if Mike Daniels can return to form, the potential is there for a dominating pass rush.
You have to like what the Packers have done from a depth perspective and Pettine has to like all the pieces at his dispoal intended to wreak havoc with the pass rush.
Will splashy moves pay dividends?
The Packers spent big money on Preston Smith, Zadarius Smith and Amos, as well as using first-round picks on Gary and Savage.
GM Brian Gutekunst used his most prescious resources to upgrade his defense, both in the short term and the long term and only time will tell how that works.
It could be just what the Packers needed to take that next step from an average defense to a good one, but it's still too early to tell.
All of the pieces sound good on paper but seeing how they fit on the actual defense will be different and that's before the injuries strike, which they always do.
Green Bay has done as much as possible to address needs and even depth at key issues.
Now, we just have to see if those moves will work and if those players will deliver as expected.
If they do, a playoff berth is a reasonable expectation. If they don't, the drought may continue.
__________________________
Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru
Comments (50)
PAPackerbacker
July 21, 2019 at 05:44 am
All these questions will soon be answered. The quality of players is there for the defense to be in the top 10. The DL should be a big improvement on rushing the QB and forcing turnovers over last season. The competition in the secondary should make everyone better. And there should be more interceptions this year over last year. Expectations are high because the level of talent has increased with both FA and the draft. The biggest question is whether everyone can stay healthy. It will be fun to watch the competition at each position.
Rak43
July 21, 2019 at 05:50 am
Gute wasted no time cutting bait with dead weight once the contracts and draft allowed. Letting Brice, Mathews, and Perry walk was addition by subtraction. Signing the Smiths and Amos was icing on the cake. Amos is a "huge" upgrade over Brice while the Smiths are also upgrades who's availability and consistency should go a long way in helping this defense rise into the top 10. The Packers have so many talented athletes on defense, I'm truly excited to see what the season brings.
Bearmeat
July 21, 2019 at 06:56 am
I would say "if the secondary stays healthy" I think they'll at the very least be a top 15 passing defense, and probably a top 10.
I have to quibble with your characterization of our pass rush last year: "The pass rush wasn't terrible last season but it certainly wasn't consistent enough."
No. The pass rush absolutely was terrible last year. Go look at QB pressure and hit rates. We were in the bottom 7 (again) IIRC. We did get sacks, but we had a high percentage of QB Pressures that turned into sacks. I'd rather have an average percentage of sacks to hits and more hits. The only piece of the pass rush that was was decent was interior pressure, and that was a 1 man wrecking crew in Clark.
Coldworld
July 21, 2019 at 08:38 am
Agreed, if you define the pass rush in question as coming from the front 7. The Packers were terrible on sacks and pressures when not blitzing players from the back field.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 21, 2019 at 09:26 am
GB finished 9th in pressure percentage and 10th in the overall number of pressures per Chris Trapasso of the Buffalo News. They finished bottom 5 in QB hits with 74 IIRC. And they had a nice number of sacks.
That's contrary to my eye-test. A deeper dive might be interesting. Perhaps the pressures came late.
Bearmeat
July 21, 2019 at 12:58 pm
Wow. I didn't look it up, but that is NOT what I saw (just eyeballing it) last year. What I saw was a savant DC manufacture pressure with creative blitzes. Those worked sometimes, but always left a hole open (or we just had busted coverage in the back end) for good QBs to exploit.
Leatherhead
July 21, 2019 at 02:13 pm
TGR. Eyes lie, and that’s why every team in the league employs statisticians.
I have repeatedly said our pass rush was effective but we didn’t have guys covered. That’s what the numbers said, that’s what the stopwatch said, and if you watch a tape, you’re going to see a high percentage of passes thrown...in under three seconds....to open guys.
You should do a deep dive.
Xxxxxxxxxxxxx
If you’d like to understand why our pressure and sack numbers are above average, and we were in the bottom five in hits........think back to some of the early season officiating and ask yourself if maybe we didn’t get extra cautious.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 21, 2019 at 10:03 pm
I'd love to see a list of Green Bay's defensive players with their pressure numbers. It occurs to me that if GB got an unusually high number of pressures from safeties and CBs, that probably negatively affects interception totals. If the team sent the safety or CB on a blitz there are fewer defenders around to capitalize on an errant pass or a tip.
flackcatcher
July 22, 2019 at 06:40 am
Eyes and stats can and do lie. It all depends on the context. I don't think your eyes were lying tgr. Green Bay scheme within their defense was contain-collapse then pressure late into set. More out need with only one true pass rusher in CM3. Both Wilkerson and Perry's job was to set the edge and allow pressure up the middle. It worked as long as the secondary remained healthy, and the QB was restricted in the pocket which also limited his field of vision. That the Packers believe in the scheme, was proven by the free agent signing this off season.
dobber
July 22, 2019 at 09:51 am
"Both Wilkerson and Perry's job was to set the edge and allow pressure up the middle."
Isn't that what Pettine was preaching from the start: pressure up the gut? I might argue that this is--in part--why his defenses tend to not have a dominant sack artist. If you look back at his NYJ defenses, the sacks were well distributed...only once did he have anyone log more than 6.5 sacks (2009, Calvin Pace had 8). His 2013 defense in Buffalo was a wrecking crew: 52 sacks, 3 players in double-digits, 4 with more than 7.5--and 3 were legit DLs.
flackcatcher
July 23, 2019 at 03:38 am
It's also to protect the back 7. Pro defenses coming in two basic types. Contain and pressure, or attack and collapse. The change in NFL rules puts a great deal of pressure on the secondary, so using the back seven in deep drops to keep the WR in front is natural. It also limits the yards gained (in theory). Attack and collapse is more high risk, with leaving more voids in coverage areas, but with a higher reward of turnover if executed. Pettine use both schemes but seems to prefers contain and pressure when he has his complete set of DB on the field. But against the 49ners, he threw his game plan away in the second half and went to a complete formation change and outright attack mode. Hell of a gutsy call. Guy is really special.
Leatherhead
July 22, 2019 at 09:28 am
TGR, I can't help you with pressure numbers, but only 5.5 of our 42 sacks came from DBs.
Our OLBs got 18. Clark and Martinez combined for 11 more up the middle.
As I've said before, I think our pass rush was more than adequate last year. Coverage, and stopping the run, were bigger issues. I wonder if that's why we drafted Gary and Savage?
EddieLeeIvory
July 22, 2019 at 07:21 am
You're right. The zebras horrific BS flags on Matthews not only stole a win from his vs Minny in week 2, they also slowed him down in week 3 in Washington when he had a textbook clean sack of Alex Smith but the zebra flagged it. That tackle made the national cover of Sports Illustrated.
It definitely forced him & us to be more cautious.
It caused national outrage & was the talk of all the ESPN & Fox Sports talk shows.
This year, it's time for QBs to be petrified of their ribs getting drilled each & every time they throw the ball.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 23, 2019 at 02:09 am
Dobber, I suppose that might in part explain the decision to select Gary over Burns.
dobber
July 23, 2019 at 08:34 am
Very possibly.
It may have more to do with the slow development of Montravious Adams and the potential departure of Daniels this offseason, though. Gary and Z. Smith (and eventually KeKe) can help alleviate some of the upcoming roster pressure there.
CoachJV
July 21, 2019 at 07:46 am
Defense wins Championships... I think we're gonna have a great one this season. I just wish we had a ballhawk.
Leatherhead
July 21, 2019 at 08:50 am
The last 4 teams playing...Pats, Rams, Saints, Chiefs...were the four best offensive teams. Only one of them was a top ten defense.
dobber
July 23, 2019 at 08:38 am
...but as you look at their performances in the playoffs, these big-scoring offenses got stymied repeatedly. Only one huge performance--NE hanging 41 on the Chargers)--and a 37 point outburst against KC. Otherwise, games played in the 20s and teens. Coaching? Game-planning? Conservative offensive approaches? Rising to the occasion?
Leatherhead
July 21, 2019 at 02:16 pm
I think we’ll most likely not be as good as the Bears on defense. We might have caught up to the Vikings.
CoachJV
July 21, 2019 at 03:48 pm
I'm not so sure about that... We took Amos away, which is not only a plus for us, but a hindrance to them. And what do they do about it??? They replace him with HHCD... so - in essence - we quadrupled our Safety play over theirs in just one move. Not to mention drafting Savage, who will likely be a clone of Eddie Jackson.
Our new OLBs are over all better than theirs, down for down. With the Exception of Mack, the Defense is average now.
Throw in the fact that Fangio is gone, and the Bears D doesn't look so elite.
dobber
July 23, 2019 at 09:02 am
I just don't see HHCD getting exposed all that much unless teams are able to stay balanced against the Bears' defense. The secondary is the Achilles heel of that defense--I know it seems odd to say that about a team that forced as many INTs as they did a year ago--but they're protected by that strength of that front 7 and allowed to freelance and play the ball. They lose Amos and they lose Callahan (one of the better slot CB in the league), and replace them with lesser players, but I don't see it making a huge difference in their performance overall.
ThxJackVainisi
July 21, 2019 at 08:40 am
Watching the new innovative offense should be all kinds of fun, but I think the defense is the key. In their last two championship seasons the Packers finished first and second in scoring and first and fifth in yards surrendered in those regular seasons. I haven’t been this excited about the defense in years: Considering the lack of talent he had to work with last season, I think Pettine did a respectable job. With the infusion of talent and with many reaching the ‘graduate level’ of understanding his defense, I expect great things. I don’t expect a Super Bowl appearance this season – a rookie HC and new scheme on offense will likely be too big a hurdle to overcome. But if LaFleur is up to the job, I they should be in the mix over the next few seasons.
Packer Dave
July 21, 2019 at 09:06 am
I would wager the defense will be better than the offense this year, as it should given the investments.
Yes the ILB isn't full of all pros but you can't stack every position. Our current personal should be serviceable.
You can't underestimate how much of a difference the smiths + Gary will make compared to clay. If Savage is as good as Davante says he'll be that is a completely new addition at FS, which has been atrocious.
Cubbygold
July 21, 2019 at 03:32 pm
I believe GB still has a substantial tilt of resources to the offense compared to the average team. Between 12, adams, graham, and the tackles... Lots of money being spent on the offense. The offense needs to drive this team while the defense tries to get these young guys to mature and improve
Cubbygold
July 21, 2019 at 03:34 pm
According to sportrac... GB is 26th in spending on defense and 4th on offense
Thegreatreynoldo
July 21, 2019 at 11:13 pm
The offense/defense percentage of spending is somewhat exaggerated, combined with timing.
1. Most teams spend more on offense than defense. The ones that don't usually have rookie quarterbacks or cheaper QBs.
1a. By AAV, GB's offense is indeed 4th, with the defense being 19th.
2. Our offensive stars are all on the 2nd or later years of the contract. Z Smith will increase $10M in 2020, P. Smith $7.5M and Amos by $3.5M. GB will lose Daniels' $10M cap # and probably Tramon's, but Martinez, Clark, Lowry probably will offset Daniels.
3. GB has tons of defensive players on rookie deals. Cash/Cap isn't that much because our entire secondary consists of rookie deals except the moderately priced Tramon and now Amos, all the ILBs are on rookie deals, and our entire D-line is also on rookie deals except Daniels. 7 defensive starters and all of the back-ups are on rookie deals. The situation is reversed on offense, with 7 starters on 2nd or third contracts.
GB - Offense: $116.8M; Defense $72.9M
MN - O = $98.3; D = $102.9
Chi - O = $90.5; D = $97.0 rookie QB
Det - O = $98.0; D = $78.0M
Dal - $114.2/$78.2
PHI - $104/77
Atl - $107/78.5
NO - 103/70
LAR - 93/97 QB on rookie deal
SF -- 100/96
Sea - 95/71
NE - 103/96
Bal - 66/96 Rookie QB
Cin - 101/79 ~ QB (Dalton = $16M)
Cle - 103/104 QB
Pit - 94/97
Hou 75/108 QB
Ind - 117/86
Jax - 83/103 ~ QB Foles = $12M
TN - 105/89
KC - 98/65 QB
LaC 108/80
Thegreatreynoldo
July 21, 2019 at 09:32 am
1. Savage needs to play 900 plus snaps at a reasonably high level.
2. Martinez needs to stay healthy.
3. The free agents have to produce at a reasonable facsimile of fan expectations.
I'd add CB, but for reasons I can't really articulate, I think the depth is better than many people think, making any single player's production less vital.
blacke00
July 21, 2019 at 10:16 am
At least 2 of our divisional opponents have very good defenses. The reality is we have to be on par with them in order not just to compete in the NFC central but the entire league! Reality is reality!
I predict the defense will have a start slow and by the end of the season barring major injuries will be a top 5 defense.
If the OL holds up the offense will gel. A good offense makes a good defense.
If the Packers get off to a fast start (which is not likely), but if they do" Nelly bar the door".
It all come down to the OL. Good OL..means a comfortable Rodgers...which means good passing game...which means a good running game which is created by a good OL. It's all one big cycle!
Lare
July 21, 2019 at 10:35 am
I agree. Just as their failure was the key to the Packers losing record, the play of the OL will be the key to their success this season. Give the running backs holes and Rodgers plenty of time to find open receivers and this should be a winning season again.
TarynsEyes
July 21, 2019 at 10:55 am
" .... Rodgers plenty of time to find open receivers and this should be a winning season again."
I thought this new offense was to get the ball out quick.
NickPerry
July 21, 2019 at 11:06 am
"I predict the defense will have a start slow and by the end of the season barring major injuries will be a top 5 defense. "
I agree with most of you post but I think the defense is the one thing that starts fast, stays fast, and hopefully, they stay healthy for a faster stronger finish. Even with new starters at both safety positions, both OLB positions and barring a trade Owen Burks at ILB, the "NEW" players on this defense are all veterans except for Savage. The Packers added a lot of talented players to a defense that already had a few and NOW they head into year 2 of playing under Pettine.
Good things are coming and they'll start in week one.
oldpointer
July 21, 2019 at 11:32 am
All the new additions on the defense are great but marked progress will only happen if the young holdovers, i.e., King, Alexander, Burks, Jackson, etc. can stay healthy and make positive strides in their game. If they can stay on the field, play meaningful snaps and learn the system they, along with the new additions acquired via FA and the draft, the Packers defense has a chance to be really good. Rankings don't matter. Getting stops, particularly on third down, and giving the ball back to the offense does. More opportunities for Rodgers & Company should translate to more points scored. Hopefully more than the majority of opponents on the schedule.
NickPerry
July 21, 2019 at 11:48 am
If I had to choose one of the "Biggest Questions" I suppose I'd point to the first of the three.
I don't think there's any question the pass rush will be much better. Even though Z and P Smith combined for just 12 sacks last season, they had a ton of pressures and QB hits last year. Throw in Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels, Kyle Frackrell in year 2 of this defense, new coaches who have a history of success in this league, I don't think it's even a question actually.
Obviously, if question #2 was answered yes, question number 3 is a resounding yes too.
The secondary has a chance to be a real strength this year and I think they will be. I think the Safety position is the best it's been in years. Amos and Savage will be a top 10 safety tandem, possibly top 5 even with a rookie. Alexander is a stud and is a clear #1 IMO. IF King is actually able to play say 12 games and be available for the playoffs, this secondary will be scary good. Tramon Williams, Josh Jackson, Ka'dar Hollman and my sleeper pick Tony Brown give them some quality depth.
This is going to be fun! For ONCE!!
Brandip
July 21, 2019 at 11:56 am
It doesn't matter how many points the Packers produce on offence if the other side of the ball gives up more. The Packers finally made the defense a priority for player acquisition. I think this was a smart move. Looking at the 2020 draft prospects, offence seams to be prevalent in the first couple of rounds. This years draft produced a high yield of defenders. This my dudes, was a very good way to address team needs. With the new Head coach and Rodgers at the helm, my only major concern is Special teams. Field position is a key aspect when it comes down to the wire. There were several errors in this area that turned the momentum to opposing teams. We could have defeated the Rams and the Deflatriots. If players can stay healthy and develop into a team, we have a chance for a wildcard playoff game. GO Pack GO!
Since'61
July 21, 2019 at 12:04 pm
Three biggest questions for the Packers on defense:
1. Will they remain healthy?
2. Will the tackling improve significantly?
3. Will the front 7 become a consistently disruptive force for the opposing offense against both the passing and running games?
Yes to those 3 questions and the Packers defense will make stops, generate turnovers and provide the offense with good field position. The rest is window dressing. Thanks, Since '61
Guam
July 21, 2019 at 03:28 pm
While I would love to see better tackling, I am not sure the CBA is going to allow that. Poor tackling has become a league wide issue and the lack of tackling in practice is a big part of that. The new guys coming out of college aren't going to improve that situation either as the 20 hour per week limit on sports has had the same impact on tackling in college as the CBA has on the pro game. If we get #1 and #3, I will be very happy.
Lare
July 21, 2019 at 12:34 pm
My biggest question on defense is Oren Burks. He's pretty much been given a starting ILB spot without showing much last season. It will help the defense considerably if he can handle the job.
PatrickGB
July 21, 2019 at 12:41 pm
Outside of scoring more points, the best way this offense can help the defense is to utilize the run game and a true WCO. Short pass plays on time keeps the other defense on their heels and eats up the clock. This revamped defense of ours can create pressure and frustrate the QB. Hopefully that will lead to a takeaway or two. As the article states this defense sure looks better than the last few years.
SmallmouthBass
July 21, 2019 at 03:05 pm
The pass rush was terrible last year. Not only did they need major talent upgrades, it was evident after re-watching the painful loses (and ties) last season that our edge defenders had major issues shedding blocks and/or wrapping up the quarterbacks and running backs during very key moments when the secondary had done itself a well enough job at covering downfield, forcing the QB to hold onto the football longer than they would like to on most drives.
Many times it seemed they could easily escape the grasp of our edge players (*sigh*). The pocket would collapse and said QB would scramble out (or re-adjust their pocket position) to make a good throw outside the pocket all while forcing the secondary to readjust based on that scramble. Or just gain yards using their legs. All this happened on key second, third and even fourth down plays.
I was very frustrated watching the reruns of these disastrous plays. With that said, I fully believe our OLB's will not have this issue moving into next season. If they do, I'll just admit I was very wrong and these signings were an utter disappointment. ZaDarious, Preston, and especially Rashan, will be the utter opposite and repair these problems that occurred way too frequently last season. This should mean that we will be much better with our opportunities to close out winnable games similar to the Vikings, Rams, and Seahawks games 18' .
Sincerely, Smaillie
Lphill
July 21, 2019 at 05:58 pm
Just imagine if Gary turns out to be better than Mack . I think Gary was the number 1 high school prospect then projected number 1 draft pick , it’s not impossible to believe he can be as good as or better than Mack.
ChrisPeterson
July 21, 2019 at 07:35 pm
I don't think that's likely. However, I do think Gary could be a dominant player if he reached his potential. His ceiling could be Mack as a pass rush but I don't know if he would have the same overall impact. His ceiling probably isn't far off though.
fthisJack
July 22, 2019 at 08:23 am
with his athleticism and size he could very well be as good or better than Mack. it all comes down to technique. if he develops some pass rush moves to go along with his freakish speed and strength, the skies the limit.
YouAskedForThis
July 22, 2019 at 09:33 am
Being as good as Mack is not impossible, but highly unlikely as Mack is such a rare talent. That said, I am looking forward to seeing what Gary becomes cause he's loaded with a good amount of talent himself.
In addition to his top shelf measurables, it's exciting to know that Gary has a great group of leaders to follow and teach him to become a PRO. Couldn't ask for a better group of guys to learn from in Mike Daniels, Kenny Clark, Z'Darius, Preston, etc,....and then you have the OLB Whisperer - Mike Smith.
Can't wait !!!!
Qoojo
July 21, 2019 at 06:38 pm
As far FA goes, I think Amos will be the biggest difference maker of the 4. While it sounds like he won't be making the splash plays, he won't be giving up the huge mental mistakes plays either. The other 3 will be solid upgrades, but I anticipate a solid defense this coming year. But I am always a Homer this early in the new season.
The question I have is if injuries will decimate one or two positions, and effectively end their season.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 21, 2019 at 11:20 pm
Agreed. I think Amos and his ability to come up aggressively to limit gains will turn 3rd and 4s into 3rd and 7s. Brice was terrible and so was HHCD at this.
Spock
July 22, 2019 at 09:40 am
Defensive three-and-outs (and none of those 4th down conversions that happened last year) and get Aaron & Company back to work would me make very,very, happy. I'm excited about all the additions and especially that Gute's FA additions are still young & ascending good players who can still get better. I like that the Smith brothers have records of consistent play and and have been available for most games. I'm excited to see what Pettine can do with a lot of real good "chess pieces" and I'm hoping that MLF's offense gets off to a faster start than expected (I'm expecting a slow start and "growing pains" but hoping I'm wrong). All in all this season seems to have some of the most positive anticipation we fans have felt for a while. Training camp is almost here. :) :)
dobber
July 22, 2019 at 09:53 am
"Defensive three-and-outs (and none of those 4th down conversions that happened last year) and get Aaron & Company back to work would me make very,very, happy."
TOP is always a very telling stat. Winning teams tend to win TOP...there are always exceptions, of course, but it would be nice to get back to dominating the clock and wearing down opposing defenses.
Lare
July 22, 2019 at 10:25 am
That generally means your running game is working.
dobber
July 22, 2019 at 01:16 pm
Generally true, but in 2016 the Packers were 4th in the league in TOP with Rodgers running a ball-control passing game and a run game that was 30th in attempts per game. Even an average offense can win TOP playing next to a defense that gives it the ball back on a regular basis.
Leatherhead
July 22, 2019 at 02:47 pm
The best offense cannot score if it does not have the ball. It’s boring but effective. Shortening the games means fewer snaps, fewer plays, fewer possessions and fewer points .
If you just stick it into the line, burn three minutes and punt that’s still better than three incompletes and a punt. Heaven forbid that you might get a first down and burn more Minutes!
Big fan of grinding the clock and helping the defense.