Abandoning "Project" Player Selection

Pausing the selection of players who "could be good."

Draft and develop. It's a philosophy that has long benefitted the Green Bay Packers. The vast majority of the best players to wear the Green and Gold in the last two decades were drafted by the Packers themselves. Some of those players were projected to make an impact early in their careers, and some of them were pleasant surprises. Others may have been deemed a "project" player. These are raw prospects with a high ceiling, where, after a year or two of learning the ropes, they could become much better than previously projected. 

If someone were to say that Aaron Rodgers was a project player, it would likely be met with skepticism. How could a project player be projected to go first overall? Well, the reasons could be why he fell to pick 24. One of the biggest criticisms of Rodgers at the time was the high-ball grip he was taught while playing at Cal. Members of the broadcast kept saying, "NFL pass rushers are going to knock that ball out every time." If this was one of the biggest reasons for his slide, perhaps teams viewed having to teach Rodgers to hold the ball lower as too long a project for them to defend his top-20 selection. 

Well, we all know how Aaron Rodgers turned out. He may not have taken over the starting role until three years later, but that high-ball grip that everyone criticized seemed to be almost gone by the time preseason rolled around in his rookie year. Perhaps that's because Rodgers had quarterback coaching legend Tom Clements in his corner. Not every team had that luxury. There's a chance the Packers won the lottery simply because of who they had to teach Rodgers and unlock that full NFL potential. 

Not every project player turns out like Aaron Rodgers, though. 

The Packers' draft philosophy lately seems to be taking risks on the first two days of the draft. Players who will take some time before they become a true asset. Names like Rashan Gary, Quay Walker, and Lukas Van Ness come to mind. Their selection was met with a lot of criticism as it was known from the start that they wouldn't likely be first-year contributors. They would need a few years to develop. And except for some flashes here and there, all three of these picks haven't quite reached that "eventual potential." 

With the Packers sitting in what is being deemed a championship window of only a few years, it's now crucial that they let go of this early project pick philosophy and start drafting players who can contribute now. 

Drafting for Now

In a city nicknamed "Titletown," you're not competing for playoff berths. You're not competing for division wins or even to just win one playoff game. You're competing to win Super Bowls. And when you have a roster that could be capable of getting there, you need to take advantage now, not later. 

The Packers started the 2025 season as a Super Bowl hopeful, just inside the top 10 in Super Bowl odds. But after trading for Micah Parsons on August 28th, suddenly, they were a favorite in the top 5. That dream of a Super Bowl 60 appearance, unfortunately, went by the wayside. But luckily for the Packers, the majority of key players from 2025 are returning in 2026 and some likely in 2027 as well. That puts the Packers in win-now mode. They need to do everything they can to build a Super Bowl-winning squad. 

That means no early-round project players. 

Hindsight is forever 20/20. But two years ago, when the Packers were thought to have needed a defensive back in the first round of the NFL Draft, it was rare to find a Packers fan who didn't want them to choose Cooper DeJean. DeJean fell to the Packers at pick 25, but the Packers instead selected offensive lineman Jordan Morgan. It's too early to call Morgan a failed pick, especially with the musical chairs they've had him play along the offensive line. DeJean, however, would go on to make a key play in the Eagles' winning Super Bowl 59 and would be named as one of the top corners through the 2025 season. Imagine the Packers taking DeJean over Morgan in the first round, as many fans hoped. Would things be different?

In the 2026 draft, the Packers can't afford the "what ifs." They need to stay away from the projects and focus on early contributors. Obviously, players to immediately fill holes on your team aren't just going to fall in your lap. But given the players available at the time of selection, we need to focus on guys who can push for playing time now, not 1-2 years from now. If we already have starters in positions, then draft players to push them and step up immediately if needed. 

The Packers have thrived on a "not just for now" philosophy when choosing players. But it hasn't always paid off. It's time they focus on "now, and then beyond." The time to win is now, not just 2-3 years from now. 

 

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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz and Bluesky @gmeinholz.bsky.social for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.

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Comments (42)

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TKWorldWide's picture

February 11, 2026 at 10:36 am

I’m a big fan of “starting out well, and then improving”, myself.

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KenEllis's picture

February 11, 2026 at 06:30 pm

The author asserts, "The vast majority of the best players to wear the Green and Gold in the last two decades were drafted by the Packers themselves."

Not on defense and not even close, even though they rarely signed any free agents under Thompson and almost always used their 1st round pick on defense.

A lot if not most of the best defensive players came from outside the organization, including Amos, McKinney, Parsons, Peppers, Pickett, P. Smith, Z. Smith, and Woodson,

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golfpacker61's picture

February 11, 2026 at 10:49 am

I don't think any team should ever waste a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a project. Projects are late round flyers where the risk isn't so great. GB has taken too many of these "projects and I was surprised they didn't take a chance on Shemar Stewart-Edge rusher who was constantly mocked to GB. He was the ultimate 'Project" with virtually no production in college.

GB has to hit a home run with this draft, especially with no first round pick.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 11, 2026 at 11:22 am

Nic Scourton and Turner were always the better players on the A&M front.

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TKWorldWide's picture

February 13, 2026 at 06:43 am

And Shemar was ranked dead last among last year’s first rounders.
Whew!

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ricky's picture

February 11, 2026 at 10:51 am

Welcome to the club. Now, if we can convince Gutekunst to do this, that would be nice. Also, notice that Rodgers had the benefit of excellent coaching to help him become a franchise QB. Do you believe the present coaching staff is the same caliber? Or even close? Because the coaches seem sub-par, but somehow keep their jobs despite diminishing returns.

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Oxymoron 3339's picture

February 11, 2026 at 11:27 am

I think MLF is a good coach. I know this isn’t a popular stance but I don’t think we actually have that much talent.
MLF is overachieving where as Gute is underachieving.

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GregC's picture

February 11, 2026 at 12:03 pm

If you are claiming that the coaching staff is bad, QB is not the best example, because Jordan Love is an excellent QB. They've missed on most of their other project players, though. Hard to tell whether that's due to coaching or just a failure to project the potential of those players.

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ricky's picture

February 12, 2026 at 09:11 am

You're a bit confused. I wrote that Rodgers benefited from good QB coaching. I then asked a question about the entire Packers coaching staff, and did not knock either Love or the coaching he received. But what about the OL? Butkus has underachieved for years, yet keeps his job. Stenavich, who was an excellent OL coach, was over promoted to become the OC. There also seems to be a problem with the DL (though this could well be traced to a lack of talent). And as I stated in an earlier post, MLF just doesn't trust Love to finish off games. LaFleur seems reluctant to replace people who have proved, after years of service, that they cannot do the job.

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Cheezehead72's picture

February 11, 2026 at 10:52 am

Fact the Packers 2026 first round pick will start the season injured.

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fthisJack's picture

February 15, 2026 at 10:56 am

LOL.

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splitpea1's picture

February 11, 2026 at 10:58 am

Amen.

The other point is that when you draft players that are ready to contribute, play them and let them contribute! Some draft picks have been thrown right out there (like Quay Walker and Stokes) but others like Golden, Wyatt, and to a lesser degree Cooper, have been brought along at a slower pace in favor of playing veterans. The quicker these guys get experience, the quicker they become impact players.

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T7Steve's picture

February 11, 2026 at 12:12 pm

I was thinking "Amen " while reading the article.

Start the good ones so they can learn on the fly. The post season will be like their second season. Dejean had his problems during his rookie season for Philly and balled out during the playoffs and Super Bowl.

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Savage57's picture

February 11, 2026 at 11:06 am

When I grow up, I want a job where I can suck ass for two or three years, then suddenly produce something my fourth year, then threaten to leave if they don't give me a raise.

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Since'61's picture

February 11, 2026 at 11:11 am

Cookie for Savage57. Thanks, Since '61

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crayzpackfan's picture

February 11, 2026 at 11:22 am

I have been dismayed by this approach for the better part of 4 years now. Gute needs to focus on college kids who have a wealth of production, a high floor, who are smart and play the game with high effort. He also needs to stop picking hybrid players with this grand delusion of versatility of his players. Versatility should be discovered later on via really good coaching, not some grand projection prior to selecting the player.
I mean come on. Is he a safety, a LB, a big CB? I don't know, pick him in round one guys, his RAS is a scorching 9.18 and he played like a beast for 5 games his whole college career. We can virtually put him anywhere we have a need. Yeah, right up until you find out he was average at all those positions and you now have a high draft pick who's a mere role player if anything at all.
If you need an IOL, go pick the best one you can find who played IOL in college and has a lot of production. Don't pick a T and try squeezing him into the inside all the time. Those changes or experiments should only take place if the T isn't working out at T.
In conclusion, projects should be for later round picks. Players should be picked in the top 3-4 rounds based on experience and production in college with high floors and intelligence (if they happen to have a high RAS, fantastic bonus). Players should be picked to play the positions they actually played in college unless they aren't panning out there or you have depth issues throughout the course of the season due to injuries. Players picked high should be players who are coached hard with expectations that they will contribute right away or soon thereafter.
Please. We need to win titles here, not trying to win Nobel Prizes for how to turn a first round tackle into a guard 3 years down the road or turning an unproductive athlete in college with a 9.24 RAS into an all pro. It's a football team, not a high school science project.

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bjb2012sime's picture

February 11, 2026 at 09:48 pm

cc: Brian Gutekunst

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bjb2012sime's picture

February 11, 2026 at 09:52 pm

cc: Brian Gutekunst

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fthisJack's picture

February 15, 2026 at 11:10 am

Gary, LVN, Morgan.....meh. Gute has fallen off his game in the last several years drafting on projection instead of production. Previous Packer scouts are all looking better than Gute at building SB teams. Wolf Patriots, Schneider Seakawks, now Jon-Eric Sullivan Miami. An up and coming team if they can find a good QB.

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Ray L 1122's picture

February 11, 2026 at 11:22 am

in the immortal words of Kevin Green "It is time".

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harleycops's picture

February 11, 2026 at 11:34 am

Pick the dogs who can bark now instead of waiting 3 years for them to learn how!

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Since'61's picture

February 11, 2026 at 11:43 am

This is no time for the Packers to be drafting project players. They need players who can contribute in 2026 especially with their 2nad 3 round picks. There is such a thing as trial by fire. Those of us who served, despite our training, had no idea what real combat was actually like until we faced it for the first time. IMO if the Packers want their rookies to learn how to play put them out there and let them get the experience they need by playing against real opponents in real games.

Draft and develop needs to become draft and play. Thanks, Since '61

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T7Steve's picture

February 11, 2026 at 12:19 pm

"Those of us who served, despite our training, had no idea what real combat was actually like until we faced it for the first time."

That's what I told the second lieutenant.

Thanks for serving, by the way.

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Since'61's picture

February 11, 2026 at 12:56 pm

Thank you your service also. It was a long time ago for me. Thanks, Since '61

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T7Steve's picture

February 11, 2026 at 12:59 pm

Got me thinking about it all over again. Shave Tails!

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 11, 2026 at 02:19 pm

Those who stay, Endure.

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GregC's picture

February 11, 2026 at 12:13 pm

I wanted Cooper DeJean too. My wife was highly amused when the Morgan pick was announced, and I howled! Having said that, I don't think Morgan really belongs in this article. He was considered to be NFL ready to play tackle or at least guard. The problem was that the Packers already had two starting tackles, so Morgan was immediately bumped to guard, where his performance has been underwhelming. It seemed like he was actually decent there as a rookie and regressed in year two, for whatever reason.

I agree with the author's premise, though. We need impact players in this draft.

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T7Steve's picture

February 11, 2026 at 12:20 pm

I remember how you called out for Dejean.

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Turophile's picture

February 11, 2026 at 04:33 pm

I am absolutely fine with the 'project pick' ........in theory at least.

It's an attempt to get a player with a higher ceiling than you could get going for the 'sure-thing' with top college production, but lesser athleticism. An attempt to get a higher tier player with a lower pick. It makes sense in theory, when you are always drafting towards the end of the round.

However, it has to work out over time - and the results with Gary and more recently with Van Ness have not validated this approach. The Quay Walker choice also missed, compared to LB Devin Lloyd (taken 5 picks later).

Maybe the Packers have just been unlucky, maybe they mis-evaluated the players ceiling (though Van Ness might still work out). Will they keep doing this or will they change their approach - who knows ?

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

February 12, 2026 at 05:55 am

Very much my thoughts Turo. People forget how difficult it is to constantly draft in the late first-round. (Though it HAS been frustrating that the Packers seem to end up picking the same positions I do, but different players, i.e. I took Devin Lloyd--they took Quay Walker, I took Creed Humphrey--they took Josh Myers, I took Nico Collins--they took Amari Rodgers...)

I have some hope for VanNess; he was looking much better last year before the injury.

The premise of the article is EXTREMELY short-sighted. You should ALWAYS make each pick taking EVERYTHING into consideration. It's why Best-Player-Available should consider ALL qualities of the player AND the situation. I always remind people that Ted Thompson, in a radio interview, let slip the Packers' actual approach: "We pick guys who we think have the best chance of beating out the players we currently have on the roster." You have a good RB and a mediocre DT? You choose the GREAT RB prospect over the mediocre DT prospect "at a position of need."

This is why in my current mock drafts, I'm often picking RB Emmett Johnson of Nebraska; he "fills the need" for a GREAT returner and very good #2 RB, and he easily is better than the people we currently have in those positions. I take HIM instead of the mediocre CBs and DTs that are usually available at 52, who MAYBE will be better than Nixon/Valentine or Wooden/Brinson/Stackhouse.

Additional note: In 2023 when we took VanNess, the guy I wanted was Jahmyr Gibbs--but I wanted to take him to use as a slot WR; of course the Lions took him right before our pick.
I ended up taking CB Christian Gonzalez. :-(
I also picked Brian Branch instead of Luke Musgrave in that draft. :-(

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stockholder's picture

February 11, 2026 at 05:31 pm

I have No problem with project players.
Especially along the OL.
Tony Mandrich, and Spriggs, were suppose to be
the next franchise Lts.
So -
Why does everyone believe Belton will be the RG.?
He played 3 years at Lt in NC.
I say RG kept his feet ready for LT.
That if Morgan plays RT - As PFF grades indicate.
Tom could be your next center.
Moving Rhyan back to RG.
A position every scout said he should end up at.
Versatility along the OL must be praised.
The Ol has always had projects.
Especially with more injuries to OL now.

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Turophile's picture

February 12, 2026 at 02:26 am

It might work.....................in Madden.

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MooPack's picture

February 11, 2026 at 06:02 pm

Not taking DeJean was a major gaffe by Gutekunst. On the level of Creed. And there have been others, but the DeJean has bothered me the most. Partly because I'm an Iowa fan, but more importantly because he was a 1st team All-Pro. WTH Brian. He was a difference maker almost every game at Iowa. A real talent not some potential talent. OL was a need as it is now, and so was/is DB, but he could have taken DeJean and taken a better, or at the very least, on par OL next. DB wouldn't be as big a need now. These blunders lead me to believe he is getting bad advice, he isn't the evaluator claimed to be, or he thinks he is smarter than everyone else. Gutekunst has made some good picks and some good trades/signings, but he has made some very bad ones as well. I'm a fence sitter on him now. He has to hit the next couple drafts with limited capital or I'm jumping over.

As for development player picks, I've posted a couple times on that philosophy nearing its end. High draft pick 2nd Contracts are proving too costly for average at best players that never truly develop either by coaching or player, it doesn't matter. Every team makes mistakes, but the ones sitting in the Superbowl usually don't, at least for a few years.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

February 12, 2026 at 06:18 am

I also picked Cooper DeJean in my "Concurrent Draft" (I make my picks just before the Packers announce theirs each year). Though I wasn't completely sold on him; it was more that I didn't see a better option on the board (several I wanted more had gone shortly before our pick).

Your point about second-contracts is vital to remember. I actually think Gute is coming around to that too. The rules are different today.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 12, 2026 at 07:06 am

I would have preferred an attempt to move up for Quinyon Mitchell and get the shutdown corner. He is another ALL-PRO guy. He's seems to always be chasing need, looking at the forest. The Van Ness, Iowa, selection really
blew my mind with so much talent on the board.

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Handsback's picture

February 11, 2026 at 06:13 pm

Sometimes patience rewards you, sometimes it doesn't. Two players come to mind off the top of my head...Hyde and Guy. Guy won SB with Patriots and Hyde was all-pro for a few years.
Sometimes you have to let players mentally and physically develop.
I belive two players the Packers can't give up on are Lynch and Van Ness.
JMHO

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

February 12, 2026 at 06:13 am

Lynch is a good example of a guy who was a "project" because he didn't have a lot of "wear on the tires," but was ALSO a "safe" pick, because he had been very successful at running, receiving, and blocking. No one can predict injuries.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 12, 2026 at 07:12 am

The guy was staring him the face, Bucky irving. He would have taken the Arron Jones role. Had a great rookie year and came on the latter half of 2025 after dealing with a couple dings. Explosion is the name of the game in the NFL.

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Since'75's picture

February 11, 2026 at 08:41 pm

"In a city nicknamed "Titletown," you're not competing for playoff berths. You're not competing for division wins or even to just win one playoff game. You're competing to win Super Bowls."

That hasn't been the case since the 2020 draft.
If you draft for the 'future', you're not trying to win the Super Bowl.
Disagree?
If you don't draft to help that current team win now, the team that went to the NFCCG, then your priority, isn't improving that current team.
Pretty simple really.
********
As far as drafting ready made NFL starters, you CAN draft NFL ready starters, but it's rare.
(See Justin Jefferson, Tristan Wirfs, etc.).
It's been done, but for Gute, it's hardly a given.
Gute hasn't drafted a ready made starter (Sans Reed) in the first two rounds, since the 2022 draft.

Yes, of course we 'should' draft ready made starters, in a perfect world.
But drafting them and starting them when they are not ready, is slightly suicidal.
I don't know if starting rookies by 'trial and fire' is the best road to the Super Bowl.
The transition from college to the NFL takes a learning curve for most players.

Sure, some have a positive impact right away, but that's an anomaly.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

February 12, 2026 at 06:08 am

I think this article overstates the concept of "project."
Firstly, EVERY draft choice is a "project." No one is EVER certain of a player's ability to transfer their college skills to the NFL, much less their health.

TJ Watt is a perfect example. I picked him that year, but I was FAR from confident in my selection. Watt was a project on TWO aspects: he had been injured a LOT in college, and he was considered a "project" (much less so than his brother JJ) going into the NFL.

I picked Nico Collins, who was a "project," but the Packers picked Amari Rodgers, who had much more production/was a "safer" pick.

Heck, I was excited about adding Tony Mandarich--he was the ultimate "safe pick" who was not just "high RAS" but completely DOMINATED in college. (That tiny RB Barry Sanders would be injured in the NFL, that egomaniac Deion Sanders was going to be a locker room cancer, that pass rusher Derrick Thomas seemed awfully light weight for the NFL...)

Hindsight is always 20/20.

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Rebelgb's picture

February 12, 2026 at 07:28 am

This is one of the best articles on this website in a long time.

Drafting ready to play rookies is important to the Packers future now.

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golfpacker61's picture

February 12, 2026 at 06:06 pm

NFL.com shows how bad our draft was last year.

"A recent article at NFL.com ranked and graded every 2025 rookie class from worst to first, and there were NFC North bookends with the Chicago Bears on top at number one (A) and the Green Bay Packers bringing up the rear in last place (D+).

The Bears being number one wasn’t much of a surprise, since they had a trio make history, but I wasn’t expecting to see the Packers ranked 32nd, far below the 31st-ranked Buffalo Bills (C-)."

That's why we still have holes and no depth. We would do better by grabbing Jo-Schmo's mock draft and using it.

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