Another Monster QB Contract Spells Hefty Cash-In for Aaron Rodgers
While the president was delivering his first State of the Union Address, the Kansas City Chiefs and Washington Redskins were hard at work in the midst of it all.
Terez Paylor of The Kansas City Star reported that the Chiefs agreed to trade quarterback Alex Smith to the Redskins. In exchange, the Redskins were reportedly seconding a third-round pick and cornerback Kendall Fuller, according to ESPN's Field Yates.
The blockbuster trade that occurred Tuesday night put the future of Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins into question -- even more so than it already was after being smacked with the non-exclusive franchise tag in 2016 and the exclusive franchise tag a year later -- and offered a chance at rejuvenation for Smith.
Through it all, ESPN's Adam Schefter said that the Redskins had already extended the contract of Smith, who originally had one year left on his deal with the Chiefs. Once the Redskins inherited that contract, they tacked on another four years, giving him an annual average of $23.5 million with $70 million guaranteed.
Why is this important? It's the case of another case of an inferior quarterback hitting the jackpot for average-to-slightly above average play, meaning Aaron Rodgers is about to be one overwhelmingly rich man.
The market for quarterbacks continues to skyrocket in the meantime. In June, the Oakland Raiders extended Derek Carr's contract via a five-year deal worth $125 million and $40 million guaranteed at the signing.
Just two months later as the preseason was winding down, the Detroit Lions inked Matthew Stafford as the highest-paid player in NFL history. His deal was worth roughly $10 million more than Carr's. Specifically, five years for $135 million with $92 million guaranteed.
This leaves the Packers at the plate with some important financial decisions to make with Rodgers this offseason.
Rodgers last signed an extension in the spring of 2013 -- a five-year, $110 million dollar deal that guaranteed him $62.5 milion. Five years later, Rodgers may very well eclipse $100 million guaranteed at the time of his inevitable signing, and rightfully so.
The standard that Rodgers has set in comparison to quarterbacks such as Stafford and Carr -- and now Smith -- is virtually insurmountable. In his five seasons since his last extension, Rodgers has started 64 of a possible 80 games -- thanks to the two broken collarbones suffered four seasons apart -- and thrown for over 16,800 yards along with 142 touchdowns and just 32 interceptions.
Rodgers' contract doesn't expire until after the 2019 season, however, the Packers would be wise to cash in on a new deal sooner rather than later given the market continuing to ascend. It would only cost the Packers more financially if they chose to not extend Rodgers, however, a deal will more than likely be struck within the coming months.
“That stuff usually takes care of itself,” Rodgers said in June of last year. “When it comes to setting the market values, I let that stuff take care of itself. I know my value in this league and I know the team appreciates me.
"I’m going to continue to make myself an indispensable part of this roster. When you do that and when your time comes to get a contract, you usually get a contract extension.”
__________________________
Zachary Jacobson is a staff writer/reporter for Cheesehead TV. He's the voice of The Leap on iTunes and can be heard on The Scoop KLGR 1490 AM every Saturday morning. He's also a contributor on the Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter via @ZachAJacobson or contacted through email at [email protected].
Comments (38)
Johnblood27
January 30, 2018 at 10:46 pm
trade Rodgers to Cleveland and rebuild the whole damn thing.
he is more likely to win another super bowl with the browns than under mclardys leadership.
we need way too much to just plug holes and hope.
rebuild
GBPDAN1
January 31, 2018 at 04:09 am
How much was Rodgers making when we won the Super Bowl in 2010? A lot less then what he's making now and much more less than what he's going to make in the near future . Rodgers is worth it, but, extremely high priced QBs put a big hit on the salary cap. I was hoping for some difference makers FAs, but Rodgers getting 10 more million a year will hurt our FA spending.
One more year and the Cowgirls will have to pay Dak. Franchises with pro bowl QBs on rookie deals have a big advantage. That's how Seattle won their SB
Did I say " much more less" lol
dobber
January 31, 2018 at 09:03 am
I only see it as being the Packers' responsibility to see to it that ARod wins titles in GB...not in Cleveland or anywhere else.
Finwiz
January 31, 2018 at 11:52 am
Seriously?
Where is this pearl of wisdom coming from?
John Ramble Kirk
January 30, 2018 at 10:47 pm
This has implications for the Packers in other ways.
Denver may sign Cousins thus freeing them from using their pick before ours on a QB weakening the non QB pool for our 14th overall.
My gut tells me he goes to Minnesota and that's a whole 'nother issue for us. Minnesota with Cousins and Cook back at RB with that D is going to be formidable. Our path might have to be wild cards for the next few seasons.
I can't wait to see where he lands. I'm hopeful it's someone drafting behind us and not Minnesota.
zeke
January 31, 2018 at 01:55 am
Jets.
dobber
January 31, 2018 at 09:18 am
Washington is all but guaranteed to be taking a QB now, though. If they'd have signed Cousins, not so much. Alex Smith can't be much more than a short-term solution on what looks like a rebuilding team (they dealt away their best cover CB to get Smith).
John Ramble Kirk
January 31, 2018 at 05:51 pm
What I think this move most likely means for Washington is they take Josh Jackson at 13. I believe, those on the Jackson train are going to be disappointed unless Brian trades up to get ahead of the Skins. Like you said, he was a fine CB for them. Josh Norman is there until 2020 with reasonable cap hits if he's still a star at 33. If they want to hedge like we would, they'll draft Jackson and waive Norman in a year or two if he tails off.
Washington very well may add another QB ala when they grabbed RGIII and Cousins but I think it's incredibly doubtful they draft a QB with 13.
NickPerry
January 31, 2018 at 05:21 am
Just listened to Rappaport list the teams most likely to sign Cousins and Minnesota was a ways down the list. BUT I'm with you, I think Minnesota would be a HUGE player in making a run at Cousins with $56 million in cap space.
BUT if you look at the Vikings Free Agents for NEXT season they'd be hard pressed to sign even half of them if the signed Cousins. The 2019 FA for the Vikings are...
Barr
Hunter
Kendriks
Diggs
Floyd
Depending what happens with Floyd and his injury I'd imagine the other 4 players are at the top of the Vikings must sign list. It will be an interesting off-season for sure.
dobber
January 31, 2018 at 07:18 am
There are several teams with plenty of cap space who could be vying for Cousins. My hope is that if the Vikings get him...
1. The Packers get ARod's deal done first
2. The bidding makes him (Cousins) OUTRAGEOUSLY and disproportionately costly
TimBackes
January 30, 2018 at 10:57 pm
Packers should try as hard as they can to get Rodgers signed to an extension before Cousins hits free agency, because whichever of the two of them signs later will be the highest paid player in the NFL.
John Ramble Kirk
January 30, 2018 at 11:27 pm
I'll be curious to see where Garoppolo fits in the contract pyramid. He may not be too far off from the leaders.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 31, 2018 at 01:32 am
Maybe, but I suspect that AR would be higher regardless of the timing. That depends on what AR wants. He may leave some money on the table, or settle for being the highest paid QB for a year, much like last time. Or he might want to be the highest paid player in the NFL for most or all of his contract. Who can say?
I'd want to see AR throw with his old zip and ease from multiple arm angles before I'd commit to the kind of money we're talking about. That means waiting until OTAs or even TC. Since Cousins will sign sometime in March most likely, I am resigned to Cousins setting the market for AR.
Stafford got $60.5M guaranteed at signing including a $50M signing bonus. He has $25.5M more that is essentially guaranteed since that money becomes guaranteed at a time when his dead money hit is $49M. A case can be made that Stafford is better than Cousins (better comp %, 3 to 1 instead of 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio, higher passer rating and QBR, better yds/att and yds/completion), but Cousins is a FA while Stafford was extended. I'd guess Cousins gets 15% more than Stafford.
I'd expect GB to extend AR for 5 years. GB has him under control for 4 seasons as it is: 2 under contract and 2 more with franchise tags. Clearly it is important to keep him happy, but the new contract carries tons more risk and is likely to be more expensive than just letting him play out this contract and then franchising him twice (notwithstanding Zach's line that "It would only cost the Packers more financially if they chose to not extend Rodgers" - It probably wouldn't.) Likely $51M to $80M signing bonus, $60M to $80M guaranteed at signing, and over $100M essentially guaranteed. 2018 cap hit probably $16M to $23M.
flackcatcher
January 31, 2018 at 06:20 am
Packers could cut their entire team, and still not have enough to sign Rodgers. No team would have enough to sign him. How do you rate a player who single handily changes the nature of your entire football team. If you look at it in that way, then the Packers cap picture becomes a lot clearer. Packers will pay the man, but it won't even be close to his actual value to this team. Unreal. Simply unreal.
dobber
January 31, 2018 at 07:05 am
I'm hoping he takes a look around him and realizes that if he takes the kind of deal we're talking about that he'll be tying one hand behind his back with regard to winning more titles. Tom Brady has, in some ways, laid out that framework. I have no problem with compensating the man rightly, but I think we all not-so-secretly have our fingers crossed that he goes the "discount for titles" route.
flackcatcher
January 31, 2018 at 09:15 am
Goodness, I hope so.
Razer
January 31, 2018 at 08:07 am
The Alex Smith signing makes this a whole lot more difficult. Committing a huge amount to your QB is at the expense of your supporting cast. The only ways to overcome this are:
- great drafts and develop, I mean great
- great value FA pickups
- dramatic cap increases
I've only seen one of these hold true for the Packers over the last years.
I guess if we dump high priced WRs and keep turning over the RB corps we could compensate for the QB costs. But then, what's the point of having a high priced QB. Gutekunst better be good at picking WR/RB...
Thegreatreynoldo
February 01, 2018 at 05:44 am
Depends on one's definition, but the only "dramatic" increase really was from 2005 to 2006 when the cap increased from $85.5M to $102M, a 19.7% increase. Otherwise, there has been a nice significant increase over the years: 8.36%, 7.73%, and 8.13%. After that, it was 1.99%, less than 1%, uncapped, [there was a negative %: the cap was 123M in 2009, 2010 was uncapped, and 2011 had a 120M cap], then 6.03%, 6.42%, 6.86%. Most services are suggesting a $9M increase from 167M to $176M, or 5.53%, while some suggest $178M, which would be 6.59%. Who knows, maybe it goes up a lot more than $9M?
Point is that if AR's cap increases from $21M or so to $30M, a 43% increase, that doesn't compute so well, and things get tight. Hard to say, it may be that other positions get squeezed, but I doubt it.
Savage57
January 31, 2018 at 08:41 am
"The cap's going up N million dollars next year."
There's a limit on how high it can go. When the cost of attending a football game exceeds the perceived value, that cap isn't going to rise anymore. At some point, networks are going to look at declining ratings and just decide it's no longer worth the price to get into the dance. Contracts executed with the expectation of an ever-increasing cap amount ("It's OK, we'll just keep borrowing against the equity - home values always rise") are going to hurt when all of a sudden they are a disproportionate amount of a declining total salary cap.
No one, ever, should be paid a guaranteed $100M for 5 years work playing a game.
People have lost their minds.
Razer
January 31, 2018 at 08:52 am
...No one, ever, should be paid a guaranteed $100M for 5 years work playing a game.
People have lost their minds...
Couldn't agree more.
dobber
January 31, 2018 at 08:59 am
Yeah, MLB said "hold my beer" to that years ago...
Thegreatreynoldo
February 01, 2018 at 05:49 am
FTFY: "hold my $8.75 (up to $12 for a nice IPA) beer"
dobber
February 01, 2018 at 07:15 am
Yet another good argument for doin' your drinkin' in the parking lot.
4thand1
January 31, 2018 at 08:59 am
Sell the team to AR, he can have my stock.
dobber
January 31, 2018 at 09:04 am
Keep the frame, though. That could be worth something... ;)
worztik
January 31, 2018 at 09:30 am
Maybe the days of EXTREME paydays for QBs is on the horizon? I don’t know how these (all) football players make as much as they do in comparison to IMPORTANT vocations such as MDs and 7/11 cashiers. The lowest paid players will make more in a year than most of us make/made in our lifetimes! I’m not against getting ALL a person can if that’s the ultimate in happiness for them! However, it’s more of an ego thing as I see it... not pay for play in many cases! Salary cap??? That’s an oxymoron in today’s NFL! How does it REALLY WORK? TB counts 10 million against the Patriots’ cap... REALLY? Where is the rest of his pay going? Some “retirement” plan that some creative lawyer came up with? Gimme a break! Yes ARod is a valuable commodity but, so is every QB on every team. The question is what percent of the total cap can teams continue to throw at one player? Look at Suh in Miami... how good are they? How much money is enough? How are these players gonna possibly survive on only 5 mil a year for the rest of their lives? My tickets are getting way over priced!!! What’s next?
zeke
January 31, 2018 at 10:51 am
"How are these players gonna possibly survive on only 5 mil a year for the rest of their lives?"
Who has that contract?
worztik
January 31, 2018 at 12:41 pm
Zeke... $30 million a year for 5 years is $150 million and $5 million into $150 million is 30 Years... but, I guess math was never a strong suit of yours!!!
worztik
January 31, 2018 at 09:34 am
I’d have a hard time getting by without my Packers’ stock dividends, however!!!
Since'61
January 31, 2018 at 11:06 am
My guess is that Rodgers will get a huge signing bonus plus a contract which keeps him the highest paid QB in the league if another QB is paid more money. Similar to the deal that Favre had on his last contract with the Packers.
If you trade Rodgers to another team for picks there is no guarantee that will lead to another SB. Rodgers remains the best shot at the SB for the foreseeable future, so pay him and get it over with.
Better to keep Rodgers and chuck the overrated players we currently have and try to replace them with good football players. It is easier to find pass rushers, DBs and WRs than it is to find a generational QB. Thanks, Since '61
stockholder
January 31, 2018 at 11:26 am
With the #14 pick of the draft = QB. (BPA) A-Rod gets signed! The packers have to pay him 20 mil. plus a year. ( They were willing to pay Favre a 20 mil. Bonus +, just to retire. ) We then keep are #14 Qb on the bench. Isn't that what we did with Spriggs?
Finwiz
January 31, 2018 at 12:18 pm
So on another subject, and off topic, who's this David Nicholson all over the twitter feed last night?
And what did ANY of his comments have to do with sports?
The guy comes across as a totally clueless moron, and it offends me to have to read his stupidity on a Packer site.
marpag1
January 31, 2018 at 12:58 pm
There are about three things on Twitter, maybe four, that are NOT stupid. If you sign up or follow or tweet or whatever, it's kind of on you.
Just dump twitter or don't follow the chuckleheads. Problem solved.
Finwiz
January 31, 2018 at 01:02 pm
Don't use TWITTER. Saw it in the feed ON THIS SITE!!!
Here....on a Packer website, TWEETS about displeasure with a POTUS SOTU speech.
Thought I made that clear.
Why here?
But thanks for the comment.
Doug Niemczynski
January 31, 2018 at 03:23 pm
QB Josh Allen could be available with the 14th pick.
You just never know.
I would take Calvin Ridley WR if the Packers dont get a couple FA WRs..
I'm still gonna review game tape of
Courtland Sutton and James Washington
Im tired of the packers taking def. People evey year in the 1st roud ...if they do get another def. Player it better be a solid pass rusher.
HankScorpio
January 31, 2018 at 03:40 pm
Rodgers can get paid what he's worth or he can get veteran help around him. He can't get both.
It's really up to him. The Packers will pay him whatever he wants.
John Ramble Kirk
January 31, 2018 at 05:07 pm
If I had the opportunity to get paid a few more million a year in salary from football, or have a better shot at winning SB's, what I would choose would reveal my character. Same goes for Aaron. Especially, given the fact Aaron pulls in millions from his ability to market himself in commercials.
Tom Brady has a cap hit of 14 million this season and just under that last season. Aaron's been at 20 and 19 the last two seasons. Brady is allowing for approximately 6 more million in cap space per season over the last two.
If Aaron gets this insane contract and stands up and says he's all about SuperBowls, I'd consider what Tom Brady has done. Brady wants SB's. He gets them but he isn't getting anywhere near what he deserves in money from the Pats. Next year his cap hit is 22 million. I'll bet he retires or renegotiates.
This team has fallen short 7 straight seasons with Aaron Rodgers, well, 6, because this last one doesn't count but he wasn't going to carry us to the SB with this defense. If we can't win with him not on a mega monster contract, how are we going to win with him on one? It might be insane but if he's going to cost so much that we can't really up his supporting cast, there's no reason to keep him. He should be dealt to another team and we should start over. If keeping Aaron is going to hinder this team from rings, then he has to go. I realize he's the best player in the game but like I said above IF we can't do enough to give him what he needs what's the point in keeping him? I don't want to watch 3-6 more years of falling short...do you? Personally, watching a rebuild with Kyle Lauletta from Richmond or Mike White from WKU or even Lamar Jackson would be more exciting to me.
HankScorpio
February 01, 2018 at 07:26 am
That's the uncomfortable reality of the salary cap. The fact is that the Packers achieve what they do because of Rodgers. It's only fair that his pay reflect that. But once it does, it becomes more important that he be great every single time out because their is less money available to pay for a good team around him.
I won't begrudge him any contract he signs. But if he demands and gets max value, it puts more pressure on him to carry the team. And he'll own whatever choice he makes.
The dirty little secret that many don't want to acknowledge is that Rodgers has been less than impressive in most of the playoff losses they have suffered. He's mostly gotten a pass for that as people have pointed their fingers at the defense for those losses. That excuse will ring more hollow if his contract continues to take up a bigger & bigger piece of the salary cap pie.