The Packers will be making a change to a 4-3 defense next season and everyone is racing to Twitter to talk about how much it doesn't matter in the modern NFL whether a team uses a 4-3 or a 3-4 because they're in nickel all the time. I don't really think that's accurate anymore. Sure, the peak McVay Rams ran 11 personnel every play and today most teams run a lot of 11 personnel, but teams are moving away from that sort of static offense. The Packers, for example, were in 11 personnel (one tight end and one running back) on 63% of plays last season, according to Sumer Sports. 63% is a lot, but its nowhere near the 99% the Rams were in. If you include very obvious run situations, it means opposing defenses had to be in base defense 40% of the time or risk getting shredded by Aaron Jones & co. Let's use this lens to review how the inferior three NFC North teams play offense. 

Lions

The Lions are the benchmark offense in the division until further notice. They had the second highest cumulative offensive PFF grade in the league and the seventh best DVOA. And they did it by running the ball a ton to hide their average QB. Goff and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will both be back for at least one more season next year, so we can rely on their 2023 numbers to project what they'll do in 2024. 

The Lions were in 11 personnel 62% of the time - that means they used at least two tight ends or a fullback on almost 40% of plays. Next season, they may be even more willing to run heavy offenses. JAG WR Josh Reynolds' contract is up and Johnson has hinted at wanting to use 2-RB personnel packages even more. It's likely that the Packers will have to match up with them in base defense a lot of the time.

That may seem frustrating for seasoned pass defense likers, but I think base defense is how you stop the Lions and Goff. Don't let them build any momentum running the ball. Get more guys in the box who can confuse Goff and potentially pressure him. Clog up the middle and collide with low crossers. If the Packers can match up with Sam La Porta and Jahmyr Gibbs with their linebackers and safeties (admittedly a pretty hefty ask) they can stop this offense with their base D. If they can't, they might continue to give up hundreds of yards on the ground. 

Bears

The Bears are a bit of an enigma. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron used 11 personnel at a Lions-like rate in Seattle (64%) but that was with two pro-bowl receivers and a first-round pick. Waldron made his name with creative 12 personnel formations and reportedly had some level of conflict with players because he wanted to use even more 12 personnel. In Chicago, he'll have one pretty good tight end, one pretty good wide receiver and that's pretty much it. Darnell Mooney was more like Darnell Asteroidey last season at receiver and Big Bob Tonyan is washed. It's unlikely that the team's current personnel will influence Waldron in one way or another. 

The other part of the equation is that the Bears will likely draft Caleb Williams, who has played in an insane level spread offense his entire college career. The trend in the NFL is to attempt to give younger QBs a run game and the play action off of it to lean on, but that would mean attempting to totally rewire Williams' brain. Does this coaching staff have the time to do that? 

If I had to bet, I would bet on Waldron increasing his heavy offense usage from what he did with the Seachickens last year. Use Khalil Herbt and Roshon Johnson, make Cole Kmet the number one target on third downs, and try to make it a simpler offense for Caleb Williams to execute. 

Vikings

I was honestly shocked to find out, just now, that the Vikings only used 11 personnel 65% of the time. You'd think with two first-round draft picks at receiver and a horrific run game they'd be in it more. Of course, when your third receiver is KJ Osborne (ranked 111th among WRs by PFF) and your second tight end is one of the best run blocker in the league, it makes sense to try to get the tight end on the field more often. 

The Vikings are another situation where we don't know who the QB will be next year. They reportedly tried desperately to trade up for a QB last draft and will likely do so again. If they do land on a rookie QB, it's even more reason for them to base out of heavier personnel. 

Kevin O'Connell's big year with the Rams was when they went HAM with Stafford out of empty with three receivers. He's used that offense to some success in Minnesota. It's been a good offense when Kirk Cousins was healthy and the run offense wasn't earth shatteringly bad. Meanwhile, the other branches of the McVay/Shanahan tree are evolving. Waldron is doing funky two tight end sidecar stuff, LaFleur is getting six wide receivers, two running backs, and two tight ends meaningful snaps, even Shanahan and McVay have totally changed their schemes over the past few years. If O'Connell is going to evolve like them, the personnel in Minnesota lends itself to heavier formations. Which means, again, more base D for the Packers.