Can Packers Recapture Tight End Magic?
By jasonperone
Green Bay Packers tight end Jimmy Graham. A phrase that many Packers fans likely dreamed of during Graham's heyday with the New Orleans Saints.
Now he's a Green Bay Packer and, assuming good health, will pair up with Aaron Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in the game. As soon as Graham signed, media and analysts began drawing up schemes and visions of that duo tearing up opposing defenses.
The assumption is that both players will play at an elite or, at least, very high level in 2018. The Packers acquired Graham with that same assumption hope. Many what if's exist as far as both being over 30 and having had injuries in the past, but now, the Packers can't let those things hamper those hopes.
The tight end has long been said to be a focal point of Mike McCarthy's offense yet there have only been a few seasons of top-notch production from the position and with Rodgers under center.
Many immediately will point to 2009 and 2011 when Jermichael Finley manned the tight end spot and had seasons that we still talk about.
Finley's 2009 regular season wasn't that flashy. 55 catches and five touchdowns. He had six catches in one postseason game that year, all for first downs.
In 2011, Finley had his best statistical season, tallying another 55 catches for eight touchdowns and 767 yards. That Packers offense was one of the best and there were a lot of options for Rodgers to throw to, otherwise, Finley may have lit the world on fire.
Richard Rodgers was never great or elite. That's not the type of player he is, but his 2015 stats show 58 catches and eight touchdowns and 510 yards. Similar to Finley's 2009 catch total and a few more touchdowns, including one Hail Mary grab.
So with those being the top tight end seasons during Rodgers' tenure as starting quarterback, it's fair to argue that the Packers have not utilized that part of the offense well. It's also safe to say that Green Bay hasn't succeeded in acquiring the right type of player at that spot.
So here we are with Graham. A look at his career shows that he caught no fewer than 85 balls from 2011 - 2014 and had double-digit touchdowns in three of those four seasons. That was with Drew Brees at quarterback. That was also between four and seven years ago.
Over his last three seasons with the Seattle Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson, Graham has caught between 48 - 65 passes and topped out at 10 touchdowns last season. Those totals are more likely to be what Graham can realistically give the Packers in 2018.
Graham is 31 years old and will turn 32 in November. He's surely lost a step or two and isn't going to stretch the field at this point. But his rise in touchdowns last season indicates his biggest potential add: goal line production.
We heard this same story a year ago when the Packers signed Martellus Bennett. Bennett was supposed to be the X-factor near the goal line and give Rodgers a big target to play pitch-and-catch with.
It was hardly the return to glory we hoped for, for many reasons, but we can't allow ourselves to be soured by that experiment. Graham may finally be what this Packers offense has needed.
Seattle's had the 23rd ranked run game last season and scored a paltry four touchdowns all season. I'm not a guru on Seattle's offense, but it would seem to me that Graham almost acted as an extension of the run game in the red zone or near the goal line.
If healthy, he represents a major problem for opposing defenses. The Packers have running threats in Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams and now add Graham. McCarthy and new offensive coordinator Joe Philbin need to get creative and find a way to be as productive as we've seen in a long time.
With the loss of Jordy Nelson, the bigger impact may be seen between the 20-yard lines where the Packers need a pass catcher to keep the chains moving. Hopefully they can add another legitimate receiver to pair with Davante Adams and allow Graham to keep defenses honest when covering all options.
If all of the cards fall the right way, the Packers have another opportunity to get top-flight production from their tight end position and keep their offense rolling to big numbers in 2018.
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Jason is a freelance writer on staff since 2012 and also co-hosts Cheesehead TV Live, Pulse of the Pack and Pack A Day podcasts. You can follow him on Twitter here
Comments (42)
Cubbygold
April 02, 2018 at 06:16 am
Sorry to be the first commenter on an unrelated topic. The article below discusses clays use as both olb and ilb in the upcoming season. I'm curious to know why OLBs primarily line up on the same side every play, rather than rotating. (maybe they do and im just unaware). It would seem that lining matthews at rolb one play and lolb the next would require offensive players to prepare for a wider variety of looks.
https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/packers-clay-matthews-ti...
NickPerry
April 02, 2018 at 06:27 am
I still find it absolutely baffling it took Thompson until 2016 to go out and get a TE for McCarthy's offense after Finley went down in 2013 when he signed Cook. What made it even more baffling was letting Cook walk AFTER McCarthy had made a public plea at the end of 2015 he needed a TE in his offense who could stretch the field. A one and done year with Cook was actually worse than not signing him at all.
Now I'll admit, I was pretty excited about the possibilities of Bennett and Kendricks BUT there was a reason Bennett was playing for his 5th team in 6 years (Whatever it was)..The dude is a NUT.
Enter Jimmy Graham who IMO the Packers will be able to get at least 2 very productive seasons out of. I don't think it's out of the question he grabs double digit TD's, catches 60 balls for over 700 yards. I also feel that Graham will produce more than what Nelson would have in 2018 because he has Rodgers throwing the ball.
The Packers now have one of the best TE's in football even at the age of 31. I believe McCarthy AND Philbin will take full advantage of Grahams skills even if he's not the same he was when he was 25. Jimmy Graham at 31 is BETTER than any TE the Packer have had here while Rodgers is QB. The back shoulder fade in the corner of the endzone to Graham will be as close to indefensible of a pass there is in the NFL this season.
Barfarn
April 02, 2018 at 07:06 am
You are not DOROTHY! You can’t click your heels 3x and repeat “Graham is great” and cause it to happen. WATCH HIS “TAPE!”
Did anyone see Graham play against us last year:
His 1st snap: no separation against Dix
2nd: On a run wide he tries to block House, who blows him up and makes the tackle for -3.
3rd: He doubles Perry with OT and Perry got sack running thru Graham easier than Mike Bennett pushing past a 66 year old paraplegic women.
Then, 4 times on 3rd and long Graham stayed in to “block” only to run a valve route near LOS. Graham wasn’t released into pattern because he’s Jeff Janis in his route running ability.
His soft and lazy play led to 4 INTs last year. One bounced off his hands; on 3 he absolutely REFUSED any attempt to knock down a less than perfect pass. Against Texans, he allowed Bouya to run in front for INT, then pushed him like a girl after he was OOB for another minus 15.
In 24 of 24 RZ targets in 2017, Graham was never bracketed or doubled and the guy covering him was almost always on a total island with no help in sight. The defense's top DB was rarely the one this island. In other words, 13 of 13 DC’s he faced in 2017 failed to see him as a threat in RZ. He got 10 TDs, but had 18 targets. Most receivers that get 18 chances will get more than 10 TDs
On this site Andy Herman, did a marvelous piece a few weeks back. He said he searched the film to find Graham’s qualities that would justify the signing. And in the 6-7 “positive” clips provided, Graham committed a penalty, dropped a ball and bobbled one and was never doubled or bracketed. There's yer sign!
As a Saint Graham had some great plays. Though raw, Graham’s unbelievable athleticism and huge catch radius allowed great stats; but the offense was dumbed down for him. Graham got his big 4 yr contract in 2014, and Saints dumped him in 2015. Ask yourselves: Who gets rid of a superstar, signed for 3 years at $27M cash, so they could take a $9M Cap hit and give Pick #112 to Seattle for Pick #31 and a 29 YO pretty good, not great, injured center [Unger only finished 4 games the year before due to two significant injuries]? Answer: When the Saints paid Jimmy, he took his Sainthood too seriously and decided that he didn’t need to improve. His true soft, lazy me-firstest ugly inner character was revealed. And the Saints dumped him.
PFF overall graded Graham as “poor.” The Outsiders only measure receiving stats like baseball WAR. They compare a player work to the average player and weigh productive yards higher than garbage yards and Graham is #28 TE in DVOA. The guy stinks.
Cubbygold
April 02, 2018 at 07:40 am
I'm assuming you also think jordy and cobb are terrible recievers because they ranked 60th and 61st in dvoa last year?
Fire_Gute
April 02, 2018 at 07:50 am
Thanks for the analysis. Never thought about the huge contract and then shipping out an insanely popular player for a center angle before. I didn't like the deal because I think they grossly overpaid. Everyone had him going back to the saints. GB and NO were the only 2 teams talked about. So why the Packers over the Saints. He knows NO, they had a much better season and are probably on a better path,even with an aging Brees. Had a ridiculous draft that we Packer fans have been saying we need for 5 years now. So all GB had was more money to offer.
Barfarn
April 02, 2018 at 09:36 am
GB offered a TON more $$$$. And, thanks, here’s more stats and thinking “angles:”
In 2014, before Graham, Seattle’s 3rd Down Efficiency was 8th in NFL at 43.57%.
In ’15, Graham played the first 10.75 games and it dropped to 38% [54-142]
In ’16 and ’17 Graham played 16 and Seattle was 15th [39.74%] and 20th [37.26%], respectively. For reference GB w/ Hundley playing in 11 games was 39.34%.
In the 5.25 games Graham missed in ‘15, Hawks were 44-71 or 62% in converting 3rd downs.
3 years with Jimmy Boy in, 37%, 38%, 39%....Jimmy out 62%, Jimmy not there 44%. Though the 62% sample size is small, its results are statistically significant because of the huge deviation from a base line that is large and super consistent.
There are parts of Graham’s receiving game that enhance converting 3rd downs RZ TDs. But, every other part of his game is horrific. People watch his highlights, read ONLY traditional TE stats and confirm their biases by listening to talking heads in much the same way the 16th century person heard in school and church, looked into the sky and concluded the earth is the center of the universe. But, when one gets into the science of the matter; Graham’s turnovers, route running and blocking weaknesses negate and perhaps overtake his receiving worth. Saints team offensive stats also improve when Graham wasn’t playing. Graham was never valuable, because he made too many mistakes, a lot very big [7 career fumbles, too] that don’t show up in stats. In New Orleans Graham was raw and improving his weaknesses, so he got a deal. Now we have a snapshot of 4 years of him REFUSING to improve his weaknesses, 3 years of him unable to learn Seattle’s route adjustments that are infinitely less complicated than GB’s; and his super human athleticism is now very much human. NFL GMs don’t pay 1x$13M, 2x$22M, 3x$30M for a player that plays 600 of 700 snaps poorly and only 15 well.
Compare this signing to Wilkerson’s, who had almost 100 pressures in 2015, a historic season for a DLman. He’s been an average player in ’16 and ’17 and quickly snatched-up a deal for 1 yr $5M w/ incentives and DEs get paid more than TEs. Several teams were interested in Graham, but the best deal Graham was ever going to get was $1.5-3M plus incentives.
dobber
April 02, 2018 at 10:11 am
" Several teams were interested in Graham, but the best deal Graham was ever going to get was $1.5-3M plus incentives."
Can you support that or is it just hyperbole?
NickPerry
April 03, 2018 at 04:55 am
I was going to respond but you've got you mind made up so what's the point. Is Graham what he was? Nope, not many are as good at 31 vs say 26 years old. But the Seahawks had one of the worst OC's in football and just replaced him with one probably as bad or worse.I also feel pretty safe in saying Seattles 3rd down efficiency drop had more to do with Marshawn Lynch walking away.
$1.5 -3M plus incentives? Yeah, okay.
TKWorldWide
April 02, 2018 at 08:06 am
So you’re saying there’s a chance...
4thand1
April 02, 2018 at 09:52 am
You forgot one important stat, barf. Seattle's o-line is putrid, can't run or pass block.
ScaryGary
April 02, 2018 at 09:57 am
saints got rid off graham because they were in a salary cap nightmare and they wanted to move to a run based offense as bree's aged. it took them 3 years to recover from going "all in". i don't think u can compare someone production with russell wilson to Aarod. jimmy and his attitude are coming to titletown, he will be a monster on third down and in the redzone.
dobber
April 02, 2018 at 10:15 am
Not to mention that the Seahawks overpaid for him terribly...Max Unger, one of the top C in the league and a first round pick.
kevgk
April 02, 2018 at 01:59 pm
I think the fact the saints still wanted him back after being underwhelming in seattle speaks good things about him. Not to mention trading him and not cutting him ensured he kept his fat contract likely to stay in good relations.
Savage57
April 02, 2018 at 06:54 am
Graham has all the physical tools. He's gotten the money. He'll have AR throwing the ball. He'll have a coach who says a TE is a critical part of his offense.
Now all he needs is the durability for the contract to have made sense.
RCPackerFan
April 02, 2018 at 07:00 am
With Graham I don't think its really fair to him to look at his production in Seattle compared to New Orleans. Seattle's offense is very different from New Orleans. Seattle basically was built around strong defense and an ability to run the ball. New Orleans has been built around Brees and the offense and more/less to outscore the opponent. Much more similar to Green Bay.
In Green Bay Graham will be used a lot more like how he was used in New Orleans rather then Seattle. Now that he is older I don't see him putting up the numbers he did in New Orleans but I think he will be productive, and he will help the offense out a ton. A few of the best offenses Green Bay has had, has been with great TE play. Finley and Cook provided those moments. Last year Bennett was supposed to be that guy, but obviously it didn't work out.
With Graham in Green Bay he brings a guy who can line up all over the field. McCarthy knows how to use those types of TE's. We will see Graham line up in the slot, and out wide a lot. He instantly becomes a matchup nightmare for defenses in the Packers offense. They have Adams on the outside, Cobb in the slot. Graham essentially is the 2nd outside WR. From there they can either add another WR or TE or a couple of RB's.
This is where I am hoping that Philbin really helps McCarthy. They said that they are redoing the playbook. My hope is that they get a lot more creative. Having Graham allows them to be more creative and create more mismatches. Especially with the versatile RB's and Cobb.
If they can stay healthy, this offense might be one of the best all around offenses we have had in a while.
Barfarn
April 02, 2018 at 07:37 am
TEs only become match-up nightmares when they can block. It is scheming against a Gronkowski, Olsen or Bennett in the run game, that creates a mismatch when they release.
Graham often makes no effort whatsoever to block. On the rare occasion he uses some effort, he stinks.
RCPackerFan
April 02, 2018 at 08:02 am
So Graham spread out wide is not a mismatch? A 6'-7" WR is not a match up nightmare for teams?
I don't know how much you watched Cook or Finley play but they were not good blockers either. And they played great in Green Bay. They were players that created mismatches because McCarthy knew how to use those guys. Same as Graham.
In the Packers offense Graham will be moved around. He won't be asked to play inline TE where he is not good at. He will be playing a lot from the slot and out wide. Moving him around puts stress on defenses. Especially when they throw in Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery in the backfield who are very versatile players.
The Packers offense is going to be very tough to defend especially now that they have Graham.
Barfarn
April 02, 2018 at 10:20 am
If it were that easy every team would have 6’7” WRs. Graham is not a mismatch nightmare because he can’t process route adjustments, hasn’t worked on his feel for getting separation, has poor hands and can’t out jump [anymore] whoever is defending him. You don’t think Bevell could have figured this out? He only had 1 PI [10 yards] call from last year on 96 targets…NINETY-SIX!
And it’s not me saying it. 13 of 13 2017 DCs Graham faced have spoken UNANIMOUSLY that Graham is not in any way a threat. They assert by action that Graham doesn’t warrant a double, doesn’t warrant a bracket, doesn’t warrant a top DB, and that that mediocre DB or LB can be on an island. Ya gotta WATCH THE “TAPE.”
Of course, I watched Cook and Finley block, did you ever watch Graham? Cook and Finley often blocked very well and usually blocked with effort. They weren’t considered great blockers because they were not consistent like a Marty Bennett. Graham is the laziest and softest player in the NFL and the 2nd lazy-softest isn’t close. Comparing his blocking prowess to Cook and Finley’s is an affront to the history of human thought. Graham’s blocking isn’t bad….it’s despicable and a disgraceful example to any youngster that dons a GB uniform.
How does moving him around put stress on a defense? WATCH THE TAPE! Seattle moved him around and the Ds were wholly unconcerned.
Finwiz
April 02, 2018 at 10:48 am
Well I'm going to have to disagree with you a bit.
Did you watch Bennett last year with the Packers?
He put zero effort into blocking, and was gawd awful!
I focused on him when he wasn't in the pass pattern because I heard so much about his blocking.
He didn't block a lick for the Packers, so I doubt it will be a huge dropoff to Graham.
RCPackerFan
April 02, 2018 at 01:30 pm
I will go with the professionals on this one. Graham is a matchup nightmare.
https://twitter.com/BenFennell_NFL/status/980851541816020992
Barfarn
April 02, 2018 at 05:23 pm
Love Mr. Fennell’s work.
On March 18, he said this: “Firing up some Jimmy Graham tape... Can't say I'm thrilled. Graham is a nightmare sized WR - but he isn't a football player.”
I’ve graded over 350 of Graham’s 2017 plays, including his 96 targets, and can confirm the correctness of Mr. Fennell’s observations of the tape…it is not pretty!
Not sure how Mr. Fennell would resolve the conflicted assertion that a guy that is not a football player can be a match-up problem. Surely, he wouldn’t assert any 6-7 athlete could line up wide for GB, right?
I suspect Mr. Fennell is indulging biases casually acquired over the years after listening to talking heads and watching highlights [Just like you]. The tape he’s watching brutally contradicts his biases and he just needs a little more time to shed them.
The tape trumps opinion and it NEVER lies!
More facts- over last 3 years:
TE Graham, 265 targets, 18 TDs, TD%= 6.8%
TE Rodgers, 152 targets, 12 TDs, TD%= 7.9%
TE Willson, 69 targets, 7 TDs, TD%= 10.1%
And we’ve established that Graham doesn’t draw any extra coverage; so Rodgers is 20% more of a RZ threat than Graham and his teammate Willson is almost twice the RZ threat Jimmy is.
dobber
April 02, 2018 at 09:33 am
There are some very good TEs out there who aren't blockers at all...Graham has always been a poster child. Jordan Reed comes to mind, too. Delanie Walker. It's about how you deploy them and how you force your opponent to defend them.
lou
April 02, 2018 at 04:22 pm
Barfan, Whiten & Gates today are match up nightmares and do not block well or much of the time. The best TE we had didn't block at all and not only was match-up nightmare but we won a Super Bowl with him and had he played a couple more years his numbers were Hall of Fame worthy, Keith Jackson. There are opinions both ways on Graham but just about anyone would have been an upgrade at TE after last seasons collection at the position, lets let it play out.
lou
April 02, 2018 at 04:28 pm
I should have said Jackson was the best TE of that era for the Packers, my apologizes to Ron Kramer and his fans, you talk about a combination of blocking and receiving, this guy was the ultimate, just ask Sam Huff and that highly rated Giants defense they beat back to back for the titles.
Handsback
April 02, 2018 at 07:56 am
Green Bay's list of TEs on their roster is pathetic...so yes Graham will make a difference. They still need a couple more guys maybe one that can block.
Tundraboy
April 02, 2018 at 09:07 am
Now that makes sense.
dobber
April 02, 2018 at 09:35 am
They gained more by replacing a zeroes-ville TE group with Graham than they lost by cutting Nelson and replacing him with <<fill in 3rd WR here>>. The fact that they can plug just about anyone into that 3rd WR spot and still likely come out ahead in total speaks volumes, not to the decline of Jordy Nelson, but to how bad the TE position has been in GB.
Tundraboy
April 02, 2018 at 10:21 am
Exactly. TE hasn't been a factor since Cook, which followed the preceding abyss.
Pikeman
April 02, 2018 at 08:10 am
Number one Jermicheal was not a great tight end. He was a little boy in a mans uniform. Graham alone is not a life saver. His greatness will depend on Cobb, Adams and Montgomery. We got rid of our best route runner and defense disrupter. It’s a guessing game, what kind of “TEAM”are we going to have?
RCPackerFan
April 02, 2018 at 08:51 am
Finley wasn't a great TE. He was a matchup problem for teams. He basically was a bigger WR. Same as Cook. Similar to Graham. The common theme with all the players is that they played or will have played in McCarthy's offense. McCarthy has proven to know how to use these players and scheme them to be used at their best.
You are right. We have no idea what type of team we will have this year. 2 new coordinators. New defensive scheme. New GM.
But we do know this. We have Rodgers and if he stays healthy, we will have one of the best offenses in the league.
dobber
April 02, 2018 at 08:46 am
"Richard Rodgers was never great or elite. That's not the type of player he is, but his 2015 stats show 58 catches and eight touchdowns and 510 yards."
After last season, 8 TDs and 510 yards from a TE sounds like a tremendous windfall...
Bert
April 02, 2018 at 08:59 am
Let's wait and see with Graham. I'm hopeful but also have the feeling he may be over-the-hill and we won't see the Graham of the Saints days. I kinda think TE may still be a weak area.
dobber
April 02, 2018 at 09:15 am
I expect opposing defenses will need to go out of their way to account for Graham, especially in the red zone, until he proves that they don't have to. Supposedly he'd added some weight to try to fit in better with his blocking responsibilities in Seattle, but he's already dropped 15 lbs this off-season. I'll see if I can find that article...
4thand1
April 02, 2018 at 09:57 am
Dammed if you do, dammed if you don't.
blue eyes
April 02, 2018 at 09:57 am
Just look at the picture at the top of this page. This guy is going to be a redzone nightmare with AR throwing to him.
Tundraboy
April 02, 2018 at 10:24 am
Potentially yes. Could be a Gronk like effect for us but that's a big IF. Depends on MM and Philbin.
Barfarn
April 02, 2018 at 10:29 am
Brian G., is that you? 'Cause I think that is how the new GM decided to pay Graham 1x13, 2x22, 3x30.
What I see is a guy totally uncovered/ a guy a DC decided wasn't even worth covering [Smile].
stockholder
April 02, 2018 at 10:33 am
I like the signing of Graham. I don't like the price. He has seen better days. I liked R. Rodgers. I didn't like him falling down! He was as Advertised! And TT blew it with Cook! If Graham stays on his feet that will be the difference. He's much better than we could draft this year. So we save the picks. But should we? Everyone wants an Edge player. Al Jersey mocked Davenport at Draft- Tek. Let's use the picks and move up. If edge or OLB is the preference. I'm for getting Edmunds. Let's not fool are selves by taking the value pick here. 2nd PRIZE! It's time to take the best player for the TEAM! Re -think the draft. We took A-Rod when we had Favre. Don't settle on getting the AS ADVERTISED player, when the IMPACT player can be grabbed first!
worztik
April 02, 2018 at 12:32 pm
We are all beating a dead horse here guys. It is what it is as the deal has already been finalized! Gute didn’t ask me or any of you what we felt about the signing. I would have told him to go a different route! We STILL need to draft a TE quite early this year and there appears to be some good ones available, probably in round 2 or 3, but, probably 2 if we want our first choice! For as much as MM supposedly values the TE position, I see NOTHING that TT did to fill the void after Finely. Yes, we let a player walk that could have been better than what we got in Bennett or Kendricks... obviously! Hind sight is always 20-20 unless your name is Ted Thompson, who never seemed to learn from his mistakes!!! Personally, I believe we definitely could have used that money wiser but, what’s done is done. Graham is a Packer, for now. It would be interesting to see the contract and how releasing him will affect our cap in the near future! I hope not too detrimentally... we all need to wait and see how he performs... or doesn’t!!!!
Doug_In_Sandpoint
April 02, 2018 at 04:03 pm
Speaking of recapturing TE magic, I believe Martellus Bennett should be offered a one day contract so he can retire a Packer.
Go...
Spock
April 02, 2018 at 08:28 pm
DIS, Even as sarcasm that's way too soon.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 02, 2018 at 08:33 pm
Too soon?
Comedy is tragedy plus time.