CheeseheadTV Packers Draft Predictions
CheeseheadTV writers tell you who they think the Packers first round selection will be.
By JerseyAl
Here you have it - our annual futile attempt at predicting who Brian Gutekunst will select with the Packers' first round pick.
Jonathan Krim - Dalton Kincaid. You don’t take a traditional, inline tight end in this spot. But when a tight end could be the highest-impact receiver to come out of this entire draft, you do. At 6’4, Kincaid isn’t one of the tall trees in the TE class, but he stands head and shoulders above the rest when it comes to a combination of speed, athleticism, ability to separate and YAC production. An elite receiving tight end diversifies the offense as it transitions from the perimeter, go-ball-heavy approach preferred by Aaron Rodgers. It opens up middle-of-the-field options for Jordan Love in ways that would cause huge headaches for opposing defenses who also have to worry about Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and two running backs who can catch. We’ve wondered if Matt LaFleur has the scheme chops of Shanahan and McVay. This is his opportunity.
Tony Wilson - Peter Skoronski. There are too many mocks out there that have JSN going to the Packers, and I think there's going to be a ton of movement in the top 15 picks. In that movement, skill guys go fast and furious and big uglies like Skoronski could slip a bit. And, honestly, that last name would just look damn fine on a Packers jersey.
Mike Price - Darnell Wright. Wright fits into Gute's trend of increasing the size of the offensive line and planning ahead for a player who likely won't be on the team next year (David Bakhtiari). Add in his 90th percentile 40 yard dash, 94th percentile broad jump, and the fact that the Packers had him in on a visit and this one is a cinch.
Maggie Loney - Myles Murphy. Myles Murphy makes so much sense as a Green Bay Packer. He plays a premium position that Gutekunst values in the first round, he has a high ceiling, is a freak athlete, and will be 21 years old his entire rookie season. Pair him with a healthy Rashan Gary and your pass rush is set for practically the next decade.
Gil Martin - Jaxson Smith-Njigba. The former Buckeye will give the Packers a great receiving target from the slot and the perfect compliment to the talents of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. In the second round, the Packers will be able to add a tight end and either an edge rusher or offensive tackle.
Ken Lass - Nolan Smith. Gutekunst favors those Georgia Bulldogs, and if he liked Quay Walker, he's gonna love Smith. He's the most explosive pass rusher in a deep class of edge prospects. He dropped jaws at the Combine running a 4.39, with the fastest ten yard split.
Bruce Irons - Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Yes, I think wide receivers are overrated. Yes, I know the Packers haven't taken a wide receiver in the 1st round since Quay Walker was in diapers. At the same time, everything seems to be coming together. JSN fell due to his injury. The Packers moved up in their trade, leap-frogging the receiver-needy Patriots. And, with Aaron Rodgers finally gone, the Packers are allowed to draft a wide receiver in the 1st round.
Tim Backes - Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN is a perfect fit for what the Packers need to complement Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. The Packers need to give their young quarterback more receiving options; we've seen just how much that's helped players like Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. It just makes far too much sense, which is probably why it's not going to happen.
Rex Sheild - Darnell Wright. As much as I want the Packers to select Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I think they will look to shore up their offensive line for the future by selecting Tennessee OT Darnell Wright. He played both tackle spots in college and did not allow a single sack in 2022, while only giving up eight QB pressures, in 13 games. The 6-foot-6 West Virginia native also registered an impressive Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 9.67 during the pre-draft process.
Mark Oldacres - Jaxon Smith-Njigba. After seeing the top wideouts in previous drafts fly off the board before he had a chance to select one, Brian Gutekunst finally gets his guy and ends the 1st round receiver drought in Green Bay.
Wendell Ferreira - Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I'm ready to get hurt again and, yes, Jaxon Smith-Njigba makes more sense after the Aaron Rodgers trade for multiple reasons. First, because it would be smart to surround Jordan Love with more talent around him, putting the young quarterback in position to be evaluated and succeed. But also because the Packers jumped the New England Patriots, who might have wide receiver as a target as well.
Joseph Randolph - Paris Johnson Jr. He's the best tackle in this class but has the flexibility to play anywhere on the offensive line. With the expected departures of David Bakhtiari and Yosh Nijman in 2024, Johnson Jr can solve that dilemma.
Gunnar Davis - Darnell Wright. The Packers have never cared about making the flashy pick. And as much as I’d like to see the front office take JSN or a skill position player at No. 13, I wouldn’t be surprised if the team goes with an offensive lineman. Darnell Wright has the capability of playing multiple positions up front, which has always been important to Green Bay’s coaching staff. I’d be happy with this pick.
Jersey Al Bracco - Paris Johnson Jr. I pray that he's there. I predict he is a future All-Pro thanks to his athletic traits, on-field effort level and off-field dedication and work habits. The Packers may not need a tackle this year, but they sure will in 2024. This is a pick with Jordan Love's future in mind.
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther. Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP.
__________________________
Comments (47)
dobber
April 26, 2023 at 02:25 pm
Just say no to Darnell Wright at 13.
"We’ve wondered if Matt LaFleur has the scheme chops of Shanahan and McVay. This is his opportunity. "
The cynic in me says that if it were really about scheme, we would've seen more flashes than this so far....
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 02:38 pm
Not with MVP-level cock blocking going on.
Coldworld
April 27, 2023 at 04:54 pm
That will soon be proven either way. If Dobber is right, LaFleur will be gone or a lame duck this time next year.
stockholder
April 27, 2023 at 05:05 pm
Why did they switch Wright from LT to RT.
That should tell you everything!
Turophile
April 26, 2023 at 02:34 pm
I'm going with Maggie Loney and picking Clemson Edge Myles Murphy, as the pick at 13 (assuming he is there of course, which is only about a 40% chance).
I'd follow it with a TE at 42. I'd take Washington if he's there, but more likely it will be one of Mayer, Musgrave or Kraft. I think Kincaid is gone for sure by 42.
For the pick at 45, my guy is Florida DT, Gervon Dexter (if he's gone, which I don't expect, Keanu Benton is a fine alternative).
I like Tyrique Stevenson (a CB but could be a safety) at 78, but I also love WR A.T.Perry, I can't decide between them.
I can see an OT at 13 instead of an Edge............... and I can see Edge Van Ness instead of Murphy - but not a WR (sorry to all you Smith-Njigba fans).
Coldworld
April 27, 2023 at 04:35 pm
Best of the bunch with Johnson. I’d love Smith … but he’d ride the pine with Barry or just get flattened.
NO JSN or other dubious athletic specimens (Meyer & Branch)— they are late second however good they are in college, preferably 3rds. I don’t want a T, but Johnson is the one who is good enough that you have to think hard before passing.
Trade down if we can is still likely to be the best option. Only Johnson, Van Ness and Smith would tempt me, but there’s so much more value to two picks in the next bunch I think. I think we can get Kincaid/Washington after doing so, possibly Van Ness too. If they are gone then I lean towards Johnston as a bigger, physical WR who is incredibly good at contested catches with great hands and radius. Lazard role upgraded and expanded offensively. Then we’d just need more perimeter options later at WR.
greengold
April 26, 2023 at 02:44 pm
I don’t think we’ll pick at 13.
I think we trade up with Arizona for the #3 and take EDGE Will Anderson (kudos The_Baloney_Stops_Here! - you’ve convinced me), or we trade down to #20 with Seattle to take TE Darnell Washington or WR Quentin Johnston should he drop.
At 13 I’d take DT Calijah Kancey.
Coldworld
April 27, 2023 at 04:52 pm
A trade up to 3 would hamstring this years drafts and next year’s too. That’s double the value of our 13th pick!
So this years first and a second plus next year’s first and a second as well, maybe another as well.
That should get a GM fired. Not happening.
jimtalkbox
April 26, 2023 at 03:03 pm
I hope we end up with an OT in the first round, preferably Johnson or Jones. I'll say Gutey goes with a Georgia Bulldog for the 3rd year in a row and drafts Broderick Jones - OT - Georgia.
Cubbygold
April 27, 2023 at 03:51 pm
I agree with you that it'll likely be an OT.
The irony there is that the Jets are the most OT needy team in the league, and taking OT at 13 likely removes the last of the top tier prospects at that position.
Swisch
April 26, 2023 at 03:07 pm
Whomever is taken by the Packers with all of this talent available, I like Jersey Al's concern with a player's previous record of effort on the field and dedication off the field.
If that consideration is seriously taken into account, it seems like any of these guys would be exciting to take at #13.
I appreciate the staff going on the record with each one's preference.
PackEyedOptimist
April 27, 2023 at 03:16 pm
My head says Myles Murphy or Paris Johnson, but my intuition (which has never been wrong...yeah, right! :-D) says Gute does a classic misdirection and takes Quentin Johnston.
Well, if he didn't bomb the combine.
I'm sticking with the belief he's going to trade down (or...gulp...up), so the pick is less predictable. I'll say late first round, Darnell Washington.
SoCalJim
April 27, 2023 at 05:55 pm
Yes! Paris Johnson, Jr., or trade down!
TKWorldWide
April 27, 2023 at 09:42 pm
Myles was there but they took LVN. Clearly they rated Lukas higher.
Matt
April 27, 2023 at 03:20 pm
I only hope it's not Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 1st round.
Turophile
April 27, 2023 at 03:25 pm
Good slot receiver, but do you want a slot at 13 ?
Also, those hammy injuries are a red flag.
hobowilly
April 27, 2023 at 07:04 pm
Hah!!! I only hope it's not an overrated buckeye. I'd like a hawkeye, like Ness!!! He appears to be in the Bosa mold...but he may not be there. If Ness is available @ 17 (meaning GB passes) just watch the Steelers grab him!!
splitpea1
April 27, 2023 at 03:27 pm
I'm going with Joseph and Al if we stand pat and Johnson is available. Gute: "Left tackles don't grow on trees." Johnson would be a really tough prospect to pass on.
The only thing I worry about a little bit with this pick is that we're talking about a very intelligent guy with a lot of other talents and interests--who may be a candidate to hang the cleats up early and pursue those interests. I don't have any evidence at all to back this up, but it's just a particle that crossed my mind.
Waypack
April 27, 2023 at 06:31 pm
Just to be clear, no positions actually grow on trees! Excellent comment. GPG!
PeteK
April 27, 2023 at 03:36 pm
Trading down a bit and still getting a top LT is my hope. Less pressure for a rookie LT as we have choices. Then move up for my man Mayer. However if price is too high grab Washington hopefully with second round pick.
Turophile
April 27, 2023 at 05:54 pm
Trading down needs a partner to trade up, which I don't think is easy to find. The best chance is either if a QB drops, or perhaps more likely, there is a run on OTs and a team in real need of one trades up to get the remaining one, as the last of the top 4-5 prospects.
I'm also guessing we just miss out on TE Washington at 42, with him going in the 38-41 region. Sad, but that's my thinking.
MainePackFan
April 27, 2023 at 03:45 pm
JSN would be my pick but I suspect he will be gone, as will the Tackles except for Wright. I think it's Lucas Van Ness or they trade down. My sleeper pick would be Mayer. Next to JSN, I think he offers the most immediate benefit to Jordan Love
Turophile
April 27, 2023 at 06:00 pm
I don't think JSN will be there, but i agree tackles will be coming off the board fast - too many teams are in need of an upgrade here. I think TE Mayer goes at the top of round two.
There is a chance Edge Myles Murphy is here and at pick 13 I'd take him over Van Ness (not certain the Packers will, though).
TheKanataThrilla
April 27, 2023 at 04:01 pm
Guessing there may be a trade down if there is a willing partner. If trade down Darnell Wright.
If we stay at 13 I have the feeling one of the top CBs drops. Christian Gonzalez as the value of the position is too large to ignore.
Turophile
April 27, 2023 at 06:02 pm
Best player available even if it isn't one of the top needs is a very Gute thing to do, and the Packers do love to take DBs in round one (and two).
pantz_bURp
April 27, 2023 at 04:04 pm
We ain't done with the Jets yet. They trade with us AGAIN and move back up to #13 to get "their" preferred OT or WR.
The Pack moves back to #15, makes another trade to about 5 spots back with Bijan STILL sitting there. The Pack selects Bijan!!!!
THIS IS THE YEAR I FINALLY GET IT RIGHT!!! I can hear the jolly fat man on my roof right now, pacing back and forth...
*overthinking has been a downfall of many a man. Not today, not today.... :)
murf7777
April 27, 2023 at 08:04 pm
Funny write up….don’t agree but thumbs ups!
jhtobias
April 27, 2023 at 04:34 pm
When will gute understand that the defensive talent is not the issue but the schemes and coaching are horrific . go ahead and add an 8th first round talent and let Joe Berry aka Matt Lafluer choice yes this is on lafluer from here on out will have no idea how to use the kid ..
Why not let Rich B make the pick he is the only one on that staff that can use talent properly
stockholder
April 27, 2023 at 04:42 pm
Michigan killed OSU. Don't give me any.
And Paris can't handle the Bull rush!
And lets not forget Sherod, And Spriggs
When they sat.
I'll go with Ken Lass on this one.
hobowilly
April 27, 2023 at 07:08 pm
recalling those 2 errors over & over. I like Lukas ("Eliot") Ness to pair with Preston to start the season. Gary may not be ready. Either way, i want so bad a starter @ pick #13, not a developmental player.
Alberta_Packer
April 27, 2023 at 05:25 pm
Unless there is an unexpected fall from one of the top 7/8 players, or, Johnson has been selected before 13 - I think that Gutekunst will trade down 5-7 spots - then select Myles Murphy.
Also, I think that Gutekunst will hold form by not selecting a WR or a TE in the first round. Frankly, I'm not too impressed with Kincaid - being an HH prospect (Hyped & Hurt) - while Mayer - a solid but non-dynamic performer. So it's Darnell Washington for me as GBs first receiver off the board (if available).
hobowilly
April 27, 2023 at 07:16 pm
Yes, I'd agree from many analitical points Washington is the best TE for GB. It would be awesome if they could select Wolverine Schoonmaker late but they'd have to pay more for a player like Kraft. I sure hope Gutey has as good a draft as he had last year.
Leatherhead
April 27, 2023 at 05:32 pm
If we could get an OT that would help us pick up 3rd and 1, I'd get that guy.
Rarescope
April 27, 2023 at 05:35 pm
You know what I think? I think I'm glad that I don't have the responsibility of not F'ing up a first round draft pick. Even the Packers' internal writers like JSN but man, those hammy issues scare me. I really liked Wendell's article the other day on positional value, so no to a TE, WR or RB.
Alberta_Packer
April 27, 2023 at 05:54 pm
Continuous hamstring problems are a red flag. Drops JSN to the 3rd round for me.
Leatherhead
April 27, 2023 at 05:55 pm
Rarescope, everybody wants to hit a homerun with a top pick. Equally important....MORE important.....is not screwing the pooch and ending up with a guy who never really helps the team. Sherrod, for example. Even some bad choices like Ahmad Carroll and Datone Jones contributed something, even though it's less than hoped.
You're an NFL GM. 32 of those jobs You make millions of dollars. IF you screw it up, you're done.
So I totally agree with putting in safeguards and checks to keep from making colossal screw ups. Rich Campbell. Brent Fullwood. Bruce Clark. Tony Mandarich. Those are career killers.
Generally speaking, the safest course of action is to avoid offensive skill position players in the first round. Trading down and spreading out the risk across more players also reduces the chance of a colossal screwup.
If we have to pick at 13, I'd look for an OT that could help us convert 3rd and 1.
Turophile
April 27, 2023 at 06:07 pm
"Trading down and spreading out the risk across more players also reduces the chance of a colossal screwup."
You are quoting a rule taken straight from TT's famous book 'Drafting For Dummies'.
CheesedDeadHead
April 27, 2023 at 06:03 pm
I loved last years draft (I even got the reason for drafting Rhyan in the 3rd). Tom was my round 4 "steal" pick and I liked Enagbare earlier (3rd) and Walker was a steal in the 7th. Just a very pleasurable draft.
This year I want them to go offense heavy in rounds 1-3:
4 picks (no dropping and adding) I expect 2 TE, 1 WR, and 1 OT
5 picks (drop from #13 and pick up a #2 or #3) I expect 2 TE, 1 WR, 1 OT and 1 Edge.
Barry has all the talent he needs. He just needs a team effort to pull his head out of his butt, try it in OTAs and if it still is stuck, spend the first week of training camp getting his head out. I expect asst. HD Coach Bisaccia to lead the effort.
The Offense needs the talent infusion and a big one. DB is gone after 2023 so we need his replacement (whether that is Yosh with Tom slotting into RT) they will still need another high quality LT for depth and to keep Yosh and Tom in better roles (RT and maybe C, respectively). We are too thin at TE and WR to not add at least 2 of each and if they go WR first then we likely see the same emphasis at TE that has been so pathetically used the last umpteenth years. If they emphasize draft capital on TEs then unleash the Kraken!
pantz_bURp
April 27, 2023 at 06:33 pm
Rare, you would be a natural. Oh, your sister says howdy.
GPG!
WD
April 27, 2023 at 05:59 pm
If it is about helping Love succeed; It is Dalton Kincaid hands down. For a most persuasive argument reread Jonathan Krims views on Kincaid. Moreover, just because we have not drafted a WR with a number one pick in many years is no reason we should. The fact of the matter is there is very little difference between this years number one wide receiver and the next five or six. The main difference is JSN got more hype and had a better QB. Let's be honest. Of greater concern is the Packer defense which last year was a major disappointment. It fell way short of expectations. Maggie Loney said it all. Edge Myles Murphy makes the most sense for the Packers at 13. With a strong crop of TEs we will easily find a good one in round two. Also another WR. So I am okay with Kincaid as he is the best playmaker of the TEs. However I am more than okay with Myles Murphy. Both are game changers and both make sense for Green Bay. Next year we will likely have two number one picks so we can re assess the offensive line at that time. Good hunting tonight. Go Pack!
StarrtoRodgers
April 27, 2023 at 06:07 pm
Personally I am hoping Jaxon Smith-Njigba falls and Packers pick him at 13 and Darnell Washington is still available at 42 or Packers trade up with the 45th pick if they think they are going to miss Jaxon or Darnell.
"GREEN BAY, Wis. – Each team is allowed 30 visits with NFL Draft prospects. Thanks to Instagram and solid reporting, we know the identities of 26 of those players. (Note: STR counted 27 on Sports Illustrated's list)
When Ted Thompson was general manager, the visits were used mostly for medical/character checks and undrafted free agent recruiting. There’s some of that with current GM Brian Gutekunst, as well, but the Packers brought in eight players who could wind up going in the first round."
Based on the 33 players various websites:
Sports Illustrated
Fan Nation
Acme Packing Company
Dariyland Express
CBS Sports
Packers Wire/USA Today
list as college players that have visited the Packers:
# Name College POS HT,WT Buzz Rk Round
1 Michael Mayer Notre Dame TE 6-4, 249 18 0.5
2 Darnell Wright Tennessee OT 6-5, 333 44 0.8
3 Dalton Kincaid Utah TE 6-4, 246 38 0.8
4 Will McDonald IV Iowa State DE 6-4, 239 39 1.1
5 Darnell Washington Georgia TE 6-6, 264 27 1.2
6 Felix Anudike-Uzomah Kansas State DE 6-3, 255 51 1.5
7 Keion White Georgia Tech DL 6-5. 285 48 1.6
8 Hendon Hooker Tennessee QB 6-3. 217 23 1.7
9 Adetomiwa Adebawore Northwestern DL 6-2, 282 52 1.8
10 Tyrique Stevenson Miami CB 6-0, 189 67 2.2
11 Rashee Rice SMU WR 6-1, 204 73 2.3
12 Jammie Robinson Florida State S 5-11, 191 79 2.8
13 Jaquelin Roy LSU DT 6-3, 305 124 2.9
14 Jartavius “Quan” Martin Illinois CB 5-11, 194 118 3.1
15 Karl Brooks Bowling Green DL 6-3, 296 142 3.4
16 Dontayvion Wicks Virginia WR 6-1, 206 179 4.1
17 Josh Whyle Cincinnati TE 6-6, 248 179 4.4
18 Keaton Mitchell East Carolina RB 5-7, 179 138 5.5
19 Atonio Mafi UCLA G 6-4, 329 168 6.7
20 Evan Hull Northwestern RB 5-10, 209 243 7.0
21 Quindell Johnson Memphis S 6-0, 204 258 7.3
22 Jordan Howden Minnesota SAF 5-11, 203 315 7.8
23 Lew Nichols III Central Mich. RB 5-11, 222 274 9.3
24 Tyrus Wheat Miss. State OLB 6-2, 263 315 9.5
25 Ben Sims Baylor TE 6-4, 250 315 10.8
26 Kadeem Telfort UAB OT 6-7, 322 363 11.8
27 Tanner Morgan Minnesota QB 6-0, 204 354 12.1
28 Sean Clifford Penn State QB 6-2, 218 478 12.9
29 Marte Mapu Sacremento State LB 6-3, 217 0 0.0
30 Cole Tucker Nothern Illinois WR 6-2, 195 0.0
31 Ryan Miller Furman WR 6-1, 210 0.0
32 Camren McDonald Florida State TE 6-4, 237 435 0.0
33 Scott Matlock Boise State DL 6-4, 296 0.0
34 Adonicas Sanders Temple WR 6-0, 189 0.0
it looks like Packers are emphasizing Tight End in round 1 and edge rusher and/or defensive lineman in round 2.
TE - 6 (3 in round 1, 1 in round 4 or 5, 2 undrafted free agents)
QB - 3 (1 in round 1 or 2, 2 undrafted free agents)
WR - 5 (1 in round 3, 1 round 5 thru 7, 3 undrafted free agents)
RB - 3 (1 in 5th, 2 undrafted free agents)
OT - 2 (1 in round 1 or 2, 1 undrafted free agent)
G - 1 ( 1 late 4th or 5th)
Total offense = 20
DL = 4 (2 late round 1, 1 mid round 3, 1 undrafted free agent)
DE = 2 (early 2nd round)
DT = 1 (late round 2 or early round 3)
LB = 2 (1 5th round, 1 undrafted free agent)
CB = 1 (3rd round)
SAF = 3 (1 late 2nd, 2 7th round or undrafted free agent)
Total Defense = 13
MooPack
April 27, 2023 at 06:18 pm
I’m going with Darnell Wright. I like Broderick Jones more, but he is likely gone. The Packers wanted the #13 for a reason. I think that was either for OT or Edge. I think OT is more likely. 3 top OT’s in the 1st, then a drop off. Edge runs deeper in this draft. TE runs deeper. WR always runs deeper and none are very top prospects this year. Love needs a legit Oline or all the skill position players won’t matter. Darnell was the highest ranked Packer visit. No sacks allowed last year. Big man that can actually get some push in the run game rather than getting stalled out. Packers should be getting tired of getting stymied on short yardage plays. Time to kick some arse. GPG!
pantz_bURp
April 27, 2023 at 06:31 pm
"One of the latest draft rumors involves the Green Bay Packers. The Baltimore Ravens are supposedly contacting the Packers about a potential trade up from No. 22 to No. 13."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/ravens-rumored-to-be-contacting-pac...
murf7777
April 27, 2023 at 08:14 pm
Interesting, but I tend to agree with the article, Gutey made a point to move up from 15-13 with the Rodgers trade that i think unless his man is already drafted he picks at 13.
CheesePuff
April 27, 2023 at 08:52 pm
All wrong - again. Nobody knows what Gutekunst is going to do. Not dazzled by Van Ness as no 1 pick.
GregC
April 27, 2023 at 10:08 pm
Nobody called Van Ness here, but I heard his name mentioned a few times as a possible first round pick for the Packers.
StarrtoRodgers
April 27, 2023 at 10:34 pm
Interesting 14 Packer writers.
5 of them picked Jasxon Smith Njigba - and I did too - and none of the writers nor I picked Lukas Van Ness.
Only Packy Cheese 500 saw this coming.