The thing I fear is Jacksonville could be the classic 'trap game'. The Jags are off to a poor start so it would be easy to think this is in the bag. Coming off a victory over a tough team from Houston and the Lions game approaching I hope the players are ready Sunday. Traveling to a warm weather location also could factor in.

It will be interesting this week if Quay Walker sits out to see how the defense is with Cooper in there as a starter.

Al thank you for letting me know what happened in this game. I did not get to watch it as my wife and I moved to a new house and I was getting the old house ready for selling. I did listen t it and it sounded like I missed a good game. Word of advice do not move during football season.

I am glad to hear that the defense looked good. It sounded good. I am concerned with the interceptions Love is throwing. He needs to keep that up.

"Historical stats I found show that NFL teams that win the turnover battle by a differential of three or more win the game roughly 91% of the time."
- Its crazy to see them have a -3 turnover differential and still win. Even crazier when we gave the Texans the ball at the 11 yard line twice, and they came away with 10 points.

"The Packers defense stopped the Texans NINE times on third downs while allowing only four first down conversions."
- Remember when we considered holding the other team to a FG a good thing for our defense. My have times changed. I don't think we can consider this a bend but don't break defense anymore.

"Hafley has finally delivered on the "we have a shiny new DC" promise that we've endured for multiple iterations."
- I liked the Hafley hiring from day one. And I'm definitely enjoying it more and more. You can just feel the defensive players are all in with Hafley. The style of play, the energy. Its crazy how different this defense is compared to the previous regimes.

"A lot of second-guessing Packers fans started to chirp when Houston went up 22-21 as to why LaFleur didn't choose to go for a two point conversion earlier when the Packers scored in the third quarter."
- I get the thought process with that. I just look at it you can't always chase points because of what the other team has done. To me going for 2 in the 3rd was too soon. If it was the 4th, then yeah.

"This polluted mind is left wondering if Matt Orzech is somehow compensated by the Packers for agreeing to be temporarily cut with the promise of not signing elsewhere if approached by another team? Do they hand him a Starbucks gift card or is he just a good guy who is happy to oblige and still have a job at the end of it?"
- My polluted mind is wondering why they are bringing him back to begin with. I'm sorry but his snaps aren't good enough. If it wasn't for Whelan being a freaking stud we likely lose. That last snap was horrible. He also had another one on a punt that almost hit the ground. At what point is enough? Last year a lot of Carlson's misses were on bad snaps.

"Jaire Alexander was out of his mind on Sunday. From pre-game warm-ups to the end of the game, he was continually in everyone's face. A few times I thought it could have been called taunting, but you don't see that called much anymore so perhaps it's been de-emphasized by the league."
- I don't care if he gets a penalty. Let Jaire Jaire. This is the guy I love. The guy in your face all game long. When he is playing that way, he is elite.

"Is it possible that when the Packers line up for an easy field goal try from now on I don't have to be a nervous wreck? Can it be?"
- Not until we get a new long snapper.

"I wrote earlier this season that I kept seeing Van Ness on the ground way too much. Well, that has changed, but it doesn't mean he's been involved in much when he's out there. His pad level is poor and he has real difficulty disengaging from blocks. He certainly has not taken that second year jump you want to see from your draftees."
- He hasn't taken the 2nd year leap yet. But something else to consider is that he also learning a new defense again. So that may take some time again.

"Did you see Kyler Murray take off for a 44 yard touchdown run against the Chargers Monday Night?"
- I saw the highlight of it. And immediately I thought, the Packers defense held him in check all game. And this wasn't the only QB they have done that too.

I'm not saying, but I'm saying. Something big is being built in GB. Its a look, its a smell, its a feeling. Something big is happening and I'm loving it! I remember Rodgers telling the media after the first game a few years back that "we have a defense". And that night it looked like it. After that it fizzled out. But not this time. We have watched this defense now for 7 games, and it just keeps getting better and better.

Like Al, I am excited about the new Packer defense. They rank 10th in the league in scoring defense, 13th in the league in rush yards allowed per game and 15th in pass yards allowed per game. While statistically not an elite defense yet, they are better than any recent version of the Packer D and more importantly improving every game. Unlike the Barry defense of recent vintage, this defense can actually get three and outs and even more importantly get three and outs in the fourth quarter. The Packer offense no longer has to score 30 points to win.

I wish there were a replacement for Orzech but I fear there isn't, at least for this season (or Gute would have already replaced him). He needs some healthy competition next preseason.

Thanks for polluting me, Al!

I think the only time you go for a 2-point conversion (besides not trusting your kicker) is when it will make the other team have to score a TD rather than attempt a field goal or if you'd missed on a previous extra point attempt which basically amounts to about the same thing.

The only way not to stress your kicker is to only have him kick-off and do extra points. TDs every time is my wish that for some reason gets ignored by Packers at times. I think that the other goal is to have the punter just hold for extra points. Saves allot of other special teams practice too. If all you do is score TDs it will be much less stressful.

“Big fan! Big fan!” Seinfeld? Matthew McConaughey?

Love the defense this year. Also gotta adjust expectations as to what good/great/reliable/productive (you choose) defense looks like in 2024. The domination of the 85 Bears or the 2000 Ravens just ain’t realistic. Points allowed, turnovers, 3 and outs, stops in key situations?

I think that last one is really it, and it’s kind of like an anticipation thing. Did you feel like Barry’s defenses would hold the lead in the 4th quarter? I didn’t. Do you feel like this year’s defense can do it? I do.

Top it off with several gallons of GPG!

The defense was really good on Sunday. Dominant? Maybe not that, but they certainly kept a good offense and QB in the clubhouse most of the day. We had good stretches under Barry and Pettine, too, but the ups and downs were the real problem...so far the defense has been, to my mind, a little more consistent. There's a lot of ball to play yet, and good teams waiting. The defense came to play on Sunday...we saw better energy and more downhill play than in past weeks. I was with many who was waiting for that taunting flag to come out, if only to try to settle the chirpiness some. This was the kind of game and attitude you see between divisional teams who have long histories.

I thought Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary were better on Sunday. Was it just me, or was Gary stunting and rushing from the interior more? Wilson was a missile. He was in the backfield making plays, and running sideline to sideline. I think he's earned a bigger role. I'm not going to say the defense got better when Walker got hurt, but it certainly didn't suffer. As for Van Ness, I'd like to see his run defense grade. He played a larger share of the snaps on Sunday and seems to be someone who can hold the edge on run downs. Preston Smith has seen his snaps decline, and the beneficiaries have been Van Ness and Kingsley Enagbare (who, in my mind, is quietly having a really good year).

I'm someone who is in favor of more 2-pt conversions and fewer kicks, esp. since they pushed PATs back, but I have no problem with the Packers' PAT choices. If anything--and I posted the same sentiments as Al yesterday regarding time and scoring--I was a little more confused as to why Houston went for 2 (and failed). Even though I'm more pro 2 pt than most, I think I kick that one.

I was waiting for someone on the watch party Sunday to co-op the "we have a defense!" line to "we have a kicker!" We'll see how he plays when the weather turns "cold" (how cold has it really been in GB in November and December in recent years?), but McManus has played in Colorado where the weather turns on a dime, so I'm less nervous about it than Narveson.

Jacksonville is mostly healthy and has offensive playmakers that are capable of putting up points. They're just not a very good team, overall...until they are. Detroit looms on the horizon, so I'll mirror those who are looking at Sunday as a potential trap game. This is a game where the Packers hopefully start fast and put the Jags behind them early.
Packers 31, Jaguars 19

George backstage at the tonight show with Corben Bernsen!!

I got nothing on "Big Fan." Googled it and got pictures of large fans; industrial, "Big Ass Fans" etc.

Thinking more about Jaire, after the game I was past ready for someone to pour him a huge cup of STFU. In retrospect, maybe the kid needs to play like Gary Payton to keep his motor running. Gary was described as the most intrusive human being on the planet, and George Karl used to leave him in the game so he wouldn't have to listen to him on the bench. I agree, let Jaire be Jaire.

Something for all our polluted mindsets. This came from David Roth and was in reference to his disappointment over the Mets exit. I tweaked it to apply to many of us here:

"It's easier to understand a football team as an expensive entertainment product that generates revenue across various platforms than it is as a machine that helps people become insane in ways of their own choosing."

Always appreciate your thoughts Al, as well as Three Plays. I'm hopeful after after squeaking out a win, the offense buckles down and is champing at the bit to start fast on Sunday. I think the entire defense is starting to believe and will be locked in.

As for Orzech, I would hope his happy little a** would be putting in double time to get his snaps right. Can't say enough good things about how well Whelan handled that snap and literally saved the game.

Went to the game on Sunday with a few business colleagues that are Cowboy and Texans fans. They were absolutely amazed at the pre-game and crowd during the game. They came away believing Packers' fans are the greatest (something we already know). What a great atmosphere on Sunday!

As for the Big Fan! reference, is it DJT?

GPG!!

Hafley is learning too. Just as the players needed to adapt to a different philosophy as well as a scheme. Hafley is a rookie as an NFL coordinator. It’s different from college and from being a positional coach.

Furthermore, he’s proved true to his words, it’s not the same defense or priorities each week. That means we should have the chance to be much better each week, but it also carries the risk that we get it wrong sometimes. I think he did to some extent versus the Eagles and completely in the first half versus the Vikings.

We’ve seen him hone his approach versus dual threat QBs, we saw a great plan for Stroud, who has a slightly different weakness to most pocket QBs. Hafley learns. The downside of adjusting is that sometimes the tweaks are wrong (Vikings). However, as Hafley learns, so I think those become fewer and less pronounced and in game adjustments become quicker too. It’s reasonable to be excited by Hafley. We just need to expect the odd miscalculation still as he grows.

I went to this game. A wild and wonderful finish! Stroud played lights out for their last drive. Keeping the play alive and completing some tight throws. Credit to the.

I had two fears, one that the defense would allow a TD and Love throwing an interception by being too aggressive. Just like the SF game last year. Well, lo and behold, the defense only yields a FG and Love doesn't get too aggressive and gets them into field goal range. Both things happen and the kicker nails it.

This is what I wanted with the new DC. And maybe a kicker too. I wore my Super Bowl t shirt in anticipation of the playoffs. Go Pack!

Interesting Item #1;

Players to know

S Darnell Savage: The former Packer has played mostly in the slot this season. Despite playing closer to the line of scrimmage, he’s remained a liability in coverage.

WR Brian Thomas Jr.: The rookie first-rounder leads the Jaguars in catches (30) and receiving yards (513) and receiving touchdowns (4). He’s a legitimate big-play threat.

DE Travon Walker: The 2022 first overall pick has 6.0 sacks to start 2024. While not as down-to-down dominant as Josh Hines-Allen, Walker is starting to consistently impact games as a pass-rusher.

CB Ronald Darby: The veteran corner has allowed 372 passing yards into his coverage, the third most among cornerbacks this season. Quarterbacks are completing 76.3 percent of passes and have three touchdown passes and zero picks when targeting Darby.

Al, about the turnover differential thing.....

I usually measure just our own turnovers, since it is possible to play a game without turning it over. We had three turnovers, which by the old measure would have put our chances at about 75%, regardless of what Houston was doing. So yeah, it was a rare win and a good omen for this team, as was the final, successful possession of the game...

IMO, there are other things in the game that should be counted as turnovers. A failed 4th down is a turnover just the same as a fumble. A missed FG is the same as a sack/fumble. The question, for me, is always, "what did you do with the 11 or so possessions?" Again, this is independent of what the opponent is doing....it's strictly a measure of what you're accomplishing on offense.

So sometimes, when you're reading the turnover numbers, take a glance at missed FGs and failed 4th downs and see if that changes anything.

Here is a trivia question: Since 2000, which Super Bowl winning team had the MOST regular season turnovers, and how many was it? I'll give you a little hint....KC had 28 turnovers last year, among the league's highest; GB had 18, among the league's lowest.

Well said Al!

Jordan Love put their ass in the fire a couple times but he also pulled them out of it.

"Jordan Love when trailing in the win vs the Texans:

❄️ 19/25
❄️ 173 passing yards
❄️ 3 TDs
❄️ 0 INTs
❄️ 133.8 passer rating"

Never mind.

Why do they dump Carlson, Joseph & Navreson and keep Orzech? Makes no sense.

Rodney Dangerfield?

“Historical stats I found show that NFL teams that win the turnover battle by a differential of three or more win the game roughly 91% of the time.”

Al, can you provide the name and date of the publication you found those historical stats in or a link for the source of those historical stats? I would like to learn more.
The numbers sound right.
For instance, in 2023 there were 272 regular season games and 13 playoff games.

In 53 of those games there was a turnover advantage of 3 or more and the team with the turnover advantage won 49 of those games – 92.5% of the time.

In 57 of those games there was a turnover advantage of 2 and the team with the turnover advantage of 2 won 48 of those games – 84.2% of the time.

In 113 of those games there was a turnover advantage of only 1 and the team with the turnover advantage of 1 won 69 of those games – 61.1% of the time.

No reason to believe those numbers vary much year to year.
What’s more amazing than the Packers defense prevailing without causing a turnover is the Packers defense prevailing despite Jordan putting the pressure on the Packers defense twice with his NFL leading interceptions and three and outs on 5 of the 9 remaining offensive possessions - including 3 possessions in a row from the middle of the 3rd quarter through the middle of the 4th quarter - and of course the Packers special teams also put the Packers D back on the field with the 1 muffed punt. .Had to be wearing on the Packers defense that late in the game.

Of course the Texans were missing Nico Collins, Stroud’s favorite receiver, who was leading the entire NFL in receiving yards after 5 weeks despite missing almost the entirety of the week 5 game against the Bills. I am sure that allowed the Packers to play more defenders closer to the line of scrimmage to take away the short pass and run. Game would have been very different with Collins playing.