Cory's Corner: Simple Economics For Brian Gutekunst
The Packers sold high and are preparing to buy low.
The wide receiver bubble has to burst soon right?
The amount of money being thrown around for wide receivers is astounding. Tyreek Hill is getting $52.5 million in guaranteed money, Stefon Diggs is getting $47.9 million guaranteed and D.J. Moore is getting $41.6 million in guaranteed money.
I wouldn’t consider any one of those guys a top three wideout. But when the money is flowing, you might as well get a seat on the money bus. Heck, Brandin Cooks just got a contract from the Texans for $36 million in guaranteed money.
Just when you thought that it was pertinent for the Packers to dip their toes into the free agent pool for a wide receiver that they are in dire need of, reality smacks the front office in the face with a frying pan.
I originally thought that the Packers should take a swing at D.K. Metcalf. But not anymore. First of all, Green Bay is going to have to give up at least a first and a second rounder. Secondly, this is a contract year for the physical freak. If Hill is getting that much money guaranteed, the 24-year-old, with quick feet and an excellent route running is going to command close to $60 million.
So what does this mean? It means the Packers are all-in on taking a wide receiver or two in the draft. That’s obviously a gamble because we know Aaron Rodgers’ history with young receivers and how frustrated No. 12 can get when a young wideout isn’t exactly where he’s supposed to be. Precision is important for a quarterback like Rodgers, who has made a career out of throwing guys open. If he asks a receiver to run five strides and make a square in, he doesn’t want four or six.
So in a way, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst is playing the market. He sees the run on wide receivers. I still remember what my teacher in Economics 101 routinely said — buy low and sell high. The Packers got a lot of value for Davante Adams — after seeing what the Chiefs got for Hill, maybe they could’ve got more. That’s a smart play, because this league isn’t a wide receiver league. Wideouts are a dependent position. How much value does the best wideout in the league have with a middling quarterback? Look to the Raiders this season for the answer.
The Packers have been called cheap and thrifty in the past. In a salary cap sport, I would call them smart. There’s no reason to invest a large amount of money on a player that could get taken out of the game with double teams and blanket coverage.
Gutekunst saw the fork in the road and made the right decision. Whenever you have to choose between the elite quarterback and the elite wide receiver, you have to always choose the elite quarterback.
A quarterback will make more receivers look good as opposed to the other way around. Many pundits have already written off the Packers to make a deep playoff run because of a lack of pass catchers.
I disagree. Gutekunst sold high and from April 28-30 will buy low and could land Ohio State's precision wideout Chris Olave in order to keep the Packers competitive for years to come.
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
Cory Jennerjohn is a graduate from UW-Oshkosh and has been in sports media for over 15 years. He was a co-host on "Clubhouse Live" and has also done various radio and TV work as well. He has written for newspapers, magazines and websites. He currently is a columnist for CHTV and also does various podcasts. He recently earned his Masters degree from the University of Iowa. He can be found on Twitter: @Coryjennerjohn
__________________________
Comments (142)
stockholder
April 09, 2022 at 06:39 am
I agree with everything you said. Until you threw in Chris Olave. First, he's the Yo Yo of the draft. Some like him. Some Don't. Sure he'll go first round. But I'm not going to build my offense around him. And if you compare him to Adams. He's not for me. I want that mis match. Olave isn't a mismatch. He needed Wilson. And we just don't have a Wilson or #1 wr.
murf7777
April 09, 2022 at 07:20 am
Stockholder……There isn’t a WR in this draft where some like and some don’t with parts of their game. You also don’t need a #1 to win it all. Now, have a Top 3 Defense and that’s a different story. In this draft, with top players coming off injuries and others with question marks I highly doubt you land a #1 in their rookie year. If Olave falls to the #22 pick, I think the Packers will be hard pressed not to take him. He has a lot to like about his game and I feel he would be a very good contributor to the Packers success as a Rookie.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 09:42 am
I think the Packers need to have a plan and they need to be flexilble in it to allow for the surprises that come in the draft. I say that fully realizing that they've probably charted out as many contingencies as they can think of regarding draft positioning and players who fall and those who get snatched up ahead of them.
While it's my hope that the Packers use these picks they have (and not package a big trade-up), it's way too easy for a team that covets a Treylon Burks or a Chris Olave to jump ahead of the Packers to snatch them up. Other teams are going to know what positions and players the Packers are looking at--agents talk, visits and contacts are well documented in the media. The Packers might be forced to move up a spot or two (minimum) to prevent someone from jumping ahead of them.
Personally, I think Olave is their best early bet at a WR who can play and be a contributor right away. He runs well and is more finished in his route-running and a better technician than most, even if he doesn't fit the physical profile. Not a big RAC guy (as noted below), but they need the C of RAC more than anything else right now.
stockholder
April 09, 2022 at 11:16 am
Keep in mind. Olave was the #2 WR. Burks, Watson, Williams and Pickens were the #1.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 12:53 pm
Actually, Olave was the #3.
greengold
April 10, 2022 at 09:35 am
As we get close, I like looking at all the latest published 7 round mock drafts, just to get a sense of slotting, then kind of come up with a mean value of players, including trusted top 100-300 listings.
I find that helpful just to figure out range where players can be had, as a best guess.
Then I like to think about what the team needs in triage manner, what parameters Gutekunst leans towards, where other teams sit in order who are looking for same position needs, and build out my own mock accordingly.
Thiese are my most recent buildouts/ best guesses. I like doing a few to see different options, etc. Pure fun, but I do think these players listed have a decent chance of being at the draft positions we have throughout…
Every player listed is TOUGH and DYNAMIC. Any one of them, I’m very confident, would be a positive contributor to the Packers.
22 WR Treylon Burks
28 DT Travis Jones
53 WR Velus Jones
59 EDGE Sam Williams
93 CB Zyon McCollum
132 LB Troy Andersen
140 OT Max Mitchell
171 TE/H Chig Okwonko
228 S Markquese Bell
249 WR Jarreth Sterns
258 WR Jaivon Heiligh
22 DT Devonte Wyatt
28 WR Velus Jones
53 EDGE Cam Thomas
59 WR Jalen Tolbert
93 CB Zyon McCollum
132 TE Chig Okwonko
140 S Kerby Joesph
171 OT Kellen Diesch
228 OT Nick Zakelj
249 WR Deven Thompkins
258 DE Zach Vanvalkenburg
22 WR Chris Olave
28 WR Skyy Moore
53 S Lewis Cine
59 WR Alec Pierce
93 DT Perrion Winfrey
132 LB Channing Tindall
140 EDGE DeAngelo Malone
171 OT Braxton Jones
228 DE/DT Eyioma Uwazurike
249 CB Marcus Jones
258 WR/KR Deven Thompkins
22 LB Devin Lloyd
28 DT Devonte Wyatt
53 EDGE Cam Thomas
59 WR Velus Jones
93 EDGE Sam Williams
132 WR Alec Pierce
140 RB Rachaad White
171 OT Jean DeLance
228 OT/OG/C Cade Mays
249 OT Dare Rosenthal
258 WR/KR Deven Thompkins
stockholder
April 09, 2022 at 11:09 am
Murff 7777 - Everything you say here is true. But is Olave what you want in a #1 WR? Because thats how you have to look at this. Can his body hold up? Can his frame pack on additional muscle? -- ( So he doesn't make a living on the trainers table. ) If you want a {"good Contributor"} he's the wrong pick. I believe Gutey will give away picks just to get his man. No Top 5 WR is going to fall in this draft. (per rd. 1) GMs will gamble on the injured. And the Top 10 will be gone by #53. You will only find a contributor past 50. Truthfully I would gamble on Williams, before Olave. Knowing he could be a #1. Olave won't. LONG TERM= Burks, Watson, or Pickens.?? Couldn't they really be better than Olave? Rumor- Bears want Olave.
LambeauPlain
April 09, 2022 at 11:44 am
Bares don't have a #1 pick at this time to draft Olave. To get 4 spots ahead of the Pack at 18, they would have to trade both their #2 picks. That would leave them with a 3rd, two 5ths and a 6th for the rest of the draft.
Or I suppose they can continue to trade away future day one and two draft picks. And that hasn't worked out for them in the past under the old regime.
I don't see the new decision makers following in the footsteps of the guys that were just fired. But it is the bares.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 01:08 pm
"To get 4 spots ahead of the Pack at 18, they would have to trade both their #2 picks. That would leave them with a 3rd, two 5ths and a 6th for the rest of the draft."
Sounds like a great plan to me. You're getting my hopes up!
murf7777
April 09, 2022 at 07:12 am
Cory, I couldn’t agree more with your thoughts. WR’s, maybe not dime a dozen, but don’t spend your top dollars on that position if you want to win consistently. I still think they will bring in a lower end FA who still has a little left in the tank….AJ Green for example who still had 56 catches last year. Also, you might see them trade for someone like Terry McClaruen from Washington who still has 2 or 3 years left on the rookie contract. If you could get him for a 1st and a 4th, go all in. If you can’t, use the draft to boost the WR’s corps.
Dtrsi
April 09, 2022 at 08:09 am
McLaurin is entering the final year of his contract.
murf7777
April 09, 2022 at 08:15 am
I stand corrected, that makes a difference, but they could do the Franchise tag for year two if it made sense. With only one, not sure the trade would make sense.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 09:44 am
These recent contracts are going to impact the franchise tag--it's going to start blowing up.
Irish_Cheesehead
April 09, 2022 at 09:20 am
For a first and a fourth? No thanks.
Savage57
April 09, 2022 at 07:17 am
There are two WR's I want to see the Packers take a run at, no matter what.
Treylon Burks out of Arkansas and Christian Watson from North Dakota State. Both are big, both are fast. Burks is an all-around athlete and grounded young man who's into fishing and he hunts wild pigs with dogs and a knife for chrissakes. Watson played his college ball in a small, cold weather town and his college team's colors are green and gold.
#meanttobe
#nodivas
#nosmurfs
murf7777
April 09, 2022 at 07:22 am
Based on 40 time, Burks isn’t labeled fast, but when watching his tape, I also didn’t see him getting run down from behind! I like him and think he game speed is faster than giving credit for.
Johnblood27
April 09, 2022 at 08:32 am
maybe his 40 time would have been faster if he had somebody chase him down the track...
Ferrari-Driver
April 09, 2022 at 10:54 am
That was a clever response. Made me chuckle. Thumbs up to you.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 09:56 am
Based on his film in SEC games, I don't worry about his workout numbers, but the allegations that he did little to prep for the Combine raises red flags on what might be going on in his head if they're true.
LambeauPlain
April 09, 2022 at 12:16 pm
4.55 is fast enough if it translates into football speed combined with other skills
Adams ran a 4.56 40. He compensated the lack of blazing speed with his sublime footwork at the snap to get separation and great route running to remain a target. And after his early career drops, he began catching everything and was unstoppable at times.
Burks got open with good awareness, used his size and strength to literally win contested passes, and once the ball was in his hands, became YAC Man. He will be a very productive Packer with Rodgers throwing to him with those tight window bullseyes he makes.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 01:07 pm
"4.55 is fast enough if it translates into football speed combined with other skills"
But can he make the Kessel run in under 12 parsecs?
LLCHESTY
April 09, 2022 at 03:39 pm
The 10 yard split is more important than the 40. Burks had a 1.6 10 yard, Adams had a 1.64 at 13 pounds lighter.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 09:56 am
I’m in.
BirdDogUni
April 09, 2022 at 10:00 am
It would not surprise me if Gutey drafted Burks at 22 and Watson at 28. Add Pickens in the 2nd round and Danny Gray or Velus Jones later and your WR Corps is remade with plenty of speed. Add Jelani Woods with your 2nd - 2nd round pick and pass catchers are a strength and not a weakness.
Forcing Rodgers to find the open WR is probably the best thing we can do for our offense.
In no particular order:
*Treylon Burks
*Christian Watson
*Gearge Pickens
Allen Lazard
*Danny Gray or Velus Jones
Amari Rodgers
Big Bob Tonyan
*Jelani Woods
Marcedes Lewis
Josiah Deguara
If Rodgers can't win with this roster, he can't win with Parker and OBJ either.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 10:25 am
Word is well out around the league on Jones. I don’t expect him to reach our #93, and that’s why I’ve advocated often taking him R2, if possible. He might be snapped off board by #52. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 03:28 pm
That’s surely way too high for a returner? I like Jones, but at his age he’s a limited receiver in terms of routes any technique, so probably a situational speedster. I like him for his returning, but I’d say Round 3 is possibly high on overall merit, and that’s largely because he really could make a difference on STs.
greengold
April 10, 2022 at 07:01 am
Based on that, you’re seeing him much differently than I am. Velus Jones is simply one of the most dangerous WRs in this draft. Period.
While his abilities as a returner are exemplary, his WR skills, true gifts to run any route, 4.31 speed, with the best hands and greatest YAC in the entire draft?
You might want to do some real digging on him, watch his film, then opine.
Too many people don’t know him because he doesn’t fit into their neat little box. He didn’t make it into the CHTV Draft Guide, and outlets have him listed outside the Top 200, blah, blah, blah.
His path was not a straight line, but he bet on himself, transferring out of USC to get more playing time. Older? Yes. Do we NOT want that kind of confidence and maturity gained in a possible rookie starter this season, with those abilities?
Coldworld, I’ve studied him and all the others. I kid you not, I think he’s the best WR in this draft, and the most qualified to become a true, dominant WR1.
Stickwin
April 09, 2022 at 03:13 pm
It is a horrible idea to draft more than 2 wr with high picks this year. With wide receiver salaries going up so much we need a steady flow of lower cost rookie contracts coming in every year.
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 03:33 pm
At a 50% league wide historical bust rate on WRs picked in the first round, if we have to worry about which receiver we drafted early next year can be retained we should be very happy.
Worry instead about none being worthy, because the team will have struggled if that is so. Past round one it’s 1 in 3 succeeding and worse. Our need is such that we may need to take early and often this year and pray we want to offer any second contracts
greengold
April 10, 2022 at 08:02 am
This draft is extremely lean on dominant WR1s. That’s a fact. There are fewer than a handful IMO. If you want 1 of them, you’ll have to be either lucky or bold.
This draft is LOADED with WR2/WR3s, and very good ones at that.
HDbikerguy
April 09, 2022 at 10:02 am
Well Savage....if we get Burks.... and I would be ok with that.....we might want him to start using a different weapon when huntin' hogs..... don't want him getting cut up or worse..... I would be happy to go with to help him out.....
PeteK
April 09, 2022 at 11:14 am
If he was really fast and a real man he wouldn't need a dog or knife to hunt a pig. What's that Talking Heads song?
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 11:19 am
Boar hunting is hardcore.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 11:47 am
True. Baller. No fear. There’s a lot to like with those qualities.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 12:16 pm
I’ll bet $1000 that it’s not Totally Nude.
LambeauPlain
April 09, 2022 at 12:04 pm
Savage, I am on the Burks/Watson bandwagon too. And Gutey may need to use both #22 and #28 to fulfill our wishes. Watson is moving up boards as teams evaluate his potential as an NFL receiver after playing for a the run first NDSU powerhouse.
I like Olave too. Kind of reminds me of Robert Brooks.
blondy45
April 09, 2022 at 11:58 pm
I am not an Olave fan. I am growing fonder of BURKS and to a lesser degree Watson. In my foggy crystal ball, I do not see the Pack taking 2 first round WRs. Olave cannot block and his RAS score is low. He was 2nd or 3rd string at Ohio State! We need fast big bodies who can block, RAC, and catch the ball. I see a WR paired with either an OT or Edge being the picks in round one. Now I need to get to the store to get some Windex for my crystal ball.
MarkinMadison
April 09, 2022 at 07:33 am
Olave is probably the best route runner in the draft, but I don't see him as a scheme fit with a team that values run-blocking wide receivers. And at his size I don't see him getting better in the run game. It will all depend on how the draft board falls. I wouldn't throw my beer at the TV if the Packers drafted Olave, but I suspect they will go somewhere else.
I'll take a couple of stabs at predictions for the first two rounds: Drake London and George Pickens (if he clears medical). Watson is an absolute freak but London's drop rate is among the best in class. https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/01/28/sure-handed-wr-prospects-ny-jets-2022...
Later rounds: Treylon Burks and Alec Pierce.
This WR class is loaded. #12 is going to have to develop patience and frame his mind around cultivating his new talent.
jannesbjornson
April 09, 2022 at 09:38 am
Get TEs if you want fetchers to block.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 10:00 am
I’ve got a dear friend who used to be a Packers beat writer. He knows his shit. Gets a lot of deep insider info. We text a lot about this stuff.
Another writer described Olave’s route running as “buttery.”
FWIW… lol.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 10:17 am
This is where I absolutely agree with you: as much as I see Olave as being the most immediate fix in this draft with regard to early impact, you give something up with him. You've built your offense a particular way--asking your WR to at least be competent at walling off DBs and being more physical on the outside in the run game. If you're drafting guy who brings little, physically, to the table with regard to the function of your offense and you're going to ask him to play 60+% of the snaps right off (which is close to what Lazard played last season--even with some missed time due to injury), then you've charted a different direction fo your offense through that pick and you've called into question how you've spent your off-season.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 10:42 am
Olave thrives in zone coverage and will fit best as a Z receiver, split wide. All of his stuff is in sideline work moving chains. He doesn’t have the strength to beat man coverage, and size limits recovery in bump. He’s not going to be a downfield blocker.
Great routes? Yes. Justin Jefferson? No.
That’s what has me perplexed.
Despite that, we need an array of different types of WRs He’s not going to give you much in Jet concepts, being as limited as he is after contact, with 2nd lowest YAC amongst top 21 WRs in this draft. Worst yards after contact and worst missed tackles forced amongst same group of 21… Wouldn’t surprise me if he drops like a hot rock well into R2.
Chain mover on sidelines and prolific red zone scorer. Without question a high volume WR in receptions, yet didn’t crack 1000 receiving yards. It’s weird.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 11:01 am
"Chain mover on sidelines and prolific red zone scorer. Without question a high volume WR in receptions, yet didn’t crack 1000 receiving yards. It’s weird."
I think you have him pegged.
The volume/yardage thing is a pretty standard thing for OSU teams, though, if you look back over recent years. People are listing Wilson and Olave as first-round talents, but neither was the most prolific WR on that team.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 11:56 am
It’s pretty much why I said very early here, this is not a WR draft with a consensus #1WR prospect, or two, or three of them.
LOADED with great #2 WRs and #3 WRs Loaded. Very deep group of fine talents.
I mean, Maybe Drake London is that guy, but, coming off a broken ankle, already a diva? Eh… I think Skyy can be a #1 WR. Same with Dotson. Burks. Jones.
Personally, I think Jones is the closest thing to Justin Jefferson in this draft, and more.
LambeauPlain
April 09, 2022 at 12:58 pm
Jones has played slot in college, little experience wide. Only one productive year. He would need a lot of work play boundary. He doesn't have a lot of time. He will be 25 at season's start.
As a late round pick, he would be an instant starter returning kicks and as a gunner on STs. He's elite in the return game.
You see him as a pro bowl player followed up as an all pro his first two years in the NFL...like Justin Jefferson?
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 03:46 pm
Very well put. I agree with almost everything GG is saying except that. Olave, if picked, needs to be used to his strengths and that would mean he’s the non blocking receiver (as Adams was) on many plays. I think it can be done, but I think he’s not the answer alone. Watson is just not ready to help much this year and not will Jones (STs aside): these two will be massively over drafted I suspect. Burks worries me as a number one, but his physicality might help paired with Olave. Alternatively, we are going to have to look at someone like Pickens, who can stretch the other side from Olave .
LLCHESTY
April 09, 2022 at 03:56 pm
I don't see Jones going that high at his age. 3rd round seems like the highest he'd go. Have to remember there's a lot of depth at WR on this draft that was quite a bit more productive than he was up until his 6th year.
He did practice outside at the Senior Bowl and looked good doing it. The QB at Tennessee looked pretty questionable which could be a big reason he played in the slot so much. I saw him adjust for a couple nice catches deep from the outside when watching some of his Tennessee plays.
LambeauPlain
April 09, 2022 at 11:57 am
OSU also had Ruckert and their usual chain moving, powerful run game. Lots of playmakers to get the ball to.
I watched Olave vs MI State. The game was over after the first quarter. Olave caught all 7 of his targets for 140 yards and two TDs...IN THE FIRST QUARTER.
I am certain Gutey has watched that tape a few times. He got open at all 3 levels with sublime route running leaving Spartan DB jockstraps all over the field.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 12:32 pm
Same sportswriter friend of mine & former Packers beat reporter wants Olave at 22. His dream pick for GB. He knows his football. Glad you shared that LP.
I’ll trust Gutekunst & his staff here. No probs.
scoonie_penn
April 09, 2022 at 07:52 am
with all the high dollar contracts GB has on the books, they really are in desperate need of young, talented, low salary, controllable contracts. 1st RD picks offer 5 years of control and manageable salaries, 2nds give you 4 years. Add to that these 1st and 2nd RD players should be impact players or at least contributing starters or major minute players. I think last year was the real "all in" season while this year is "be good enough to have a chance but let's start looking ahead" is the underlying thought process. IMO If GB takes a LT in the first two rounds expect this to be Bahk last season with GB. JMHO they go (in no particular order) RD 1-2 Edge, LT, WRx2, RD3-4 TE, S, DL, CB, RD 5-7 ST Return specialist, then whatever is left...
BruceC1960
April 09, 2022 at 09:34 am
I’m not sure Rodgers would have been kept if this is truly a “looking ahead” year? Still not sold on bringing him back. If he doesn’t show up for voluntary and summer camps, it was clearly a mistake.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 10:45 am
Agree, given the stakes and youth infusion at WR.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 10:29 am
"1st RD picks offer 5 years of control and manageable salaries"
Absolutely. I don't want to see them deal back out of round 1 for that reason unless the cupboard is bare. Someone would have to offer me a haul to deal those picks out of round 1, and if the Packers package those picks to move up into the top part of the draft, I'll be really unhappy...espeicially if they go for a Garrett Wilson as some "insiders" are projecting.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 10:46 am
No shit. 100%.
mnbadger
April 09, 2022 at 11:03 am
Really depends on who's available, how the board falls. Mock drafts are as likely to be accurate as March madness brackets.
The first group to come up with a real time app to allow armchair GMs like us to submit mock picks on draft night will be a hit.
Otherwise it's just playing with house money.
IN GUTE I TRUST! GPG!
LambeauPlain
April 09, 2022 at 12:43 pm
CHTV Draft guide has Olave and Watson mocked as the first two WRs on the Packer's board.
Burks is way down at 9. Velus Jones didn't even make it on the list, a soon to be 25 year old who had one good year and played exclusively in the slot.
If Gutey's top WRs on his board are gone at 22 and 28, I can see him taking his highest rated OL, Edge, ILB, DL or DB taken. That will get the natives riled up!
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 03:37 pm
Watson is a pick for tomorrow not today. Great athleticism, raw and needs time; high ceiling low floor. Hardly a rational early pick for this year. Normally I’d love him, but for us now? Daft. We paid Rodgers and we need to give him people to throw to this year or he may not be around.
Stickwin
April 09, 2022 at 03:23 pm
Good call Scoonie_penn. I really like a couple of the safeties that fit late first round then get your OT in round 3-5.
murf7777
April 09, 2022 at 07:43 am
I took at take at a 4-round mock draft with one trade where I traded back 2 spots in the first round and picked up an extra 4th #129.
#22 Jermaine Johnson EDGE. Florida State (I couldn’t pass up one of the best pass rushers in the draft)
#30 Olave. WR. OSU
53. Watson WR NDS
59 Phidarvia Mathis. DL. Alabama
92. Dulcich. TE. UCLA. (This is a sleeper pick for me)
129. Nick Cross. S. Maryland (speed like Savage, pair up two Maryland grads)
132 Dare Rosenthal OT. Kentucky
140 Troy Anderson. LB. Montana State. (I missed having Anderson at LB and he scored a RAS 10)
There you go, any thoughts?
Packer_Fan
April 09, 2022 at 08:03 am
Pretty good. I have thought about trading back too. I think Gute will trade for a receiver, so trading back to get another pick from one or two that is lost is helpful. How good is that LB from Montana. I would like to see draft capital spent on the ILB position.
murf7777
April 09, 2022 at 08:20 am
WIth Anderson I was thinking ST’s and if he becomes a starter someday at LB that’s a plus. Honestly, I did it cuz of the 10 RAS score and didn’t watch any tape on him, come to think of it there might not be any. He ran a 4.42 and a 3.99 short shuttle at the combine.
LLCHESTY
April 09, 2022 at 12:38 pm
There's plenty of him on YouTube, even him playing QB.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 09:40 am
I like it if available.
JJ dropping to 22 might be a stretch, but he’s ranked nearby.
Olave could drop there as easily as he could be selected #8 overall. If choice is Burks or Olave forcing trade down w KC, I’d rather make the choice between the two ourselves v. the trade down from 28. First WR we take couldn’t be a more important decision this year. Optimal system fit is key. jmtc
Watson, I’m liking him more, a lot more, after seeing his Catch% >70%. QB rating when targeted an elite 142.9… 43 rec for 801 yds is a relatively small sample size, not a volume WR, but definitely effective. 15 rushes for 114 yds… solid. Doubt very much that he drops below high 30s, despite his slotting should normally fit 40-50ish. I was wrong on this kid. I’d take him R1 at 28, if they really feel it merits doing so. I’d prefer a high volume WR with our first WR off board.
—-
*** On WRs - Don’t care much about anything other than securing best fits to our roster, even at cost of drafting one considered a round early, under today’s known circumstances needing at least 2 starters. Think of it this way, WE determine the player’s real slot, if we determine that value to be correct. History tells who was right on that stuff. If he is not the fit, or that fit doesn’t merit the value of taking someone else, don’t do it.
I always figure if a player is an R3 projection, if we really want him, we’ll likely have to jump everybody and steal him away R2 (as an example), being we almost always pick end of round.
—-
Mathis, I really like him. Ascending. Explosive. Better v. Pass than Run, rare for such a big guy. Versatile enough to play 0-5.
Dulcich would provide more immediate help as a receiver exclusively at F TE, like many. But, he’s good at that. Looks to be placed right.
—
Love Cross. Underrated
6-1 212 ran 4.34 - Nothing about him under 72nd percentile except 31.5” arms.
5 PD, 3 INT 3 sacks 3.5 TFL 2 FF = HUSTLE
In 2021 Cross played 781 defensive snaps.
2- Dline
53- Slot
24- Corner
281- Box Safety
420- Deep Safety
I think Cross would be a great add for GB.
—
Love Rosenthal, but seriously believe he could be had R5-7.
Love Andersen to pair with Campbell. Seems he might be available there. Would rather take him 129 to secure to roster.
*** if I love a player, that means he’s tough AF, or has Elite skills elsewhere. Toughness is big. Availability key. No injuries key. Always.
*** I was really wrong on some players & position groups earlier. Didn’t have half my normal study in on this particular draft. Good Safeties can be had.
murf7777
April 09, 2022 at 10:16 am
GG....many like Jalani Woods, but I like Dulcich.
If you watch the film, you will notice Woods as being a project and he takes way too long to get out of the LOS. Kind of lumbering out of the gate. Probably due to his 6'7 frame. He might become something but it's going to take a while, which the Packers don't have.
Now, look at Dulcich and you see a person who explodes out of the LOS and gets down field quickly. He understands the nuances of Zone D. He averaged 17.6 YPC as a TE for goodness' sake, excellent YAC and is more athletic than people think. I wouldn't even mind if they took him in round 3 if he's still there. Other teams will notice this as well.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 10:48 am
Solid, murf. Yeah, I like Dulcich almost as much overall, maybe more for immediate impact as you say. He’s got the resume.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 10, 2022 at 04:39 am
Since GB drafts late in every round, all those 3rd round guys probably have to be taken in the 2nd in GB's case.
Yup. trading back can be done. Example: trade back from 59 to 75 (DEN) and pick up Denver's 115th pick. That works out exactly on the Rich Hall trade chart. [That's a little further back than I'd like to go, but the example worked. I think there will be a guy I really like at 59, but that definitely is subject to change!]
stockholder
April 09, 2022 at 11:49 am
I would rather have Leo Chanal than Mathis.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 12:35 pm
Kind of funny that DT Phidarian Mathis (5) has more PDs than ILB Leo Chenal (1). Not a slam, stockholder. Chenal is an outstanding run defender, and a superior run defender to Mathis.
Everybody’s got their strengths/weaknesses. Joe Barry might really like a shot at coaching Chenal.
stockholder
April 09, 2022 at 01:11 pm
I would take Travis Jones first. More upside. If not reinforcements.
LambeauPlain
April 09, 2022 at 01:07 pm
Decent draft...but with the loaded OL class and Packers needing quality depth that can start, and will be graded far higher on Gutey's board at #59 in my view.
Anderson is a phenom. Played numerous positions, even QB, and played them all well. His best year was last year when he played ILB all season and dominated. Athletic freak and a damn good football player.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 08:20 am
Good piece, Cory.
I’m really, really torn on Olave:
1. He gets 3.34 YAC/REC, the 2nd lowest total among the top 21 WRs in the 2022 draft class.
2. He gets 1.06 YAContact/ REC, the LOWEST among the top 21 WRs in the 2022 draft class.
3. He gets 0.02 MTF/REC, the LOWEST among the top 21 WRs in the 2022 draft class. (Missed Tackles Forced)
I’m a bit concerned about those numbers. Been trying to figure it out. If I’m not mistaken, I recall seeing his hot spots where he makes the majority of his receptions are on the outer boundaries. 35 TDs has to figure in there as well. I think that number is right. Intended to deep dive this a bit, as I do really like him. Smaller speed guy, I guess, but 1-3 listed are worth careful discernment with such a valuable pick.
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 08:47 am
I don’t see a single solution pick that Is reasonably likely to fall to us. Olave isn’t going to bowl anyone over, so he’s going to need to be used thoughtfully to best exploit his speed and route technique early. Is that an admission of high floor low ceiling? It could be, if he can’t add to his frame, but is what we want in the now or the future anyway? I think he needs to be used more narrowly initially and that we need a different type to compliment whomever we take first at WR.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 10:47 am
A guy Olave reminds me of is Robert Brooks. It's a very Packers-centric comparison--and Brooks was no speed merchant--but I see some similarities.
jannesbjornson
April 09, 2022 at 11:41 am
Marvin Harrison
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 11:57 am
I could see that.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 11:22 am
I see 2 solution picks. Devonte Wyatt and Devin Lloyd. 22 & 28.
I also see Skyy Moore and Christian Watson.
For those not of the faint of heart, Treylon Burks and Velus Jones. Burks and Moore would make me happy AF, as would Burks/Jones.
Burks/Jones gives you the top 2 YAC producers in the draft = Jet concept success. If I believe in something, it’s for good reason and I’m fearless about my reasonings.
*** A lot of people might say, “Yeah, yeah, yeah, we can take Velus in R3 or R4.” Not based on what I’m seeing. Regardless, if you know with a high degree of certainty he is a perfect fit, why not spend a little more insuring he’s secured to your roster? Risk aversion.
KC is a PRIME, PRIME, PRIME example, with picks #29 & 30, right behind us, having just lost Tyreke Hill.
******* Does everybody understand, Velus Jones is WAY FASTER than Tyreke Hill? Way bigger too???!!! AND, he catches 75% of Targets???!!!!
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 09, 2022 at 08:53 am
Olave is a good WR but I'd prefer many others after watching tape. I feel he is over hyped. Not good at contested throws.
jannesbjornson
April 09, 2022 at 01:04 pm
He's not your possession guy or post-up. He is the guy to take it to the house. People are over-thinking these guys. He went up against some of the best secondaries and made them look like fools as well as Wilson. Olave has plenty of high point and contested catches.
egbertsouse
April 09, 2022 at 08:45 am
When Gute gave away the keys to the vault to Diva he committed to an All-in course of action. Therefore, he needs to get players that can start immediately, not Davante Adams or Rashan Gary 3 year development projects. To combine a “Win now” philosophy regarding Diva with a draft and development philosophy regarding everyone else is a sure fire way to go nowhere. By the time he develops these players Diva will most likely be gone. He needs to go All-in, not Half-assed in at this point. He can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube.
Lphill
April 09, 2022 at 09:06 am
You mean the future HOF QB ?
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 09, 2022 at 10:18 am
Egbert,
Like you I am not a professionally trained NFL scout. However, if you haven't done this yet I ask you (and others) go watch video on the top 15 to 20 ranked WR's you consistently see on all these draft websites. The videos show the highlight reels of each player during live action. Olave is a good player but there are quite a few WR's this non-professional has watched that allegedly are going in rounds 2 thru 4 that I either like better than Olave, or as good. Based on his video I see him more of a #2 WR for the Pack. He isn't going to make a lot of contested catches & high point passes. Maybe I am all wrong but that is my opinion.
Watch a WR like Danny Gray that appears to be ranked somewhere after the 200th pick and compare to Olave's game and tell me if you see where Olave is better. Take a look at Kahlil's video who appears to be like a 4th round pick and tell me if you think Olave looks better. There are many other WR's I could same the same about. I think we get to wrapped up in these internet ratings. There are fortunately a lot of good WRs available this year and while I have favorites of my own whomever Gutey selects I will be okay with that. I agree with some of the posters that we need a big strong fast WR somewhere in the draft. Then there has to be one of those WRs who can make those contested catches consistently.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 10:54 am
"Watch a WR like Danny Gray that appears to be ranked somewhere after the 200th pick and compare to Olave's game and tell me if you see where Olave is better."
I think Olave is more finished. He's far less of a projection than guys like Danny Gray or Velus Jones who run fast and could find a spot on a roster early as returners, but need a lot of development to find their way into regular work in 11 personnel. We can isolate individual plays for guys that show potential, but the play-to-play bust potential on Olave is much lower--I think he's got a safe floor as a #2 which might push the Packers to take him.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 10:59 am
He’s definitely safe. Agree. Not multidimensional in any aspect, but, safe.
We gotta remember the many pieces we need at WR. For myself, I want all 3 or 4 WRs we add to be able to run Jet concepts.
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 03:53 pm
I don’t see only one opening at WR, I see 2 maybe 3. I don’t see one player being available that can tick all the boxes we need. This is a draft where we should probably be looking to add complimentary pieces not one piece that resolves it all, if we want to be successful. Olave could be part of that, but whomever we take first likely changes the types we ideally seek after.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 09, 2022 at 11:28 am
Dobber,
You may be correct and time ultimately will determine. My point is there are a LOT of good receivers out there in round 2 and 4. All of us Including me tend to get focused on one WR and if not drafted become frustrated. As Since 61 states I would be very comfortable having Gutey focusing on big bodies early and WR's a little later. If he does then I tend to think Gutey agrees with me. One thing you and I am in agreement though is Olave may end up being a #2 WR before all said and done. He likely needs a Burks, Pickens, Watson, Pierce, and possibly even a Dotson type to be effective. Someone else to help keep defense from focusing on him too much.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 09, 2022 at 10:38 am
Egbert,
Want to add I do understand your thought process of needing players who can start and contribute right away. I get that! However, if Gutey passes on better talented players to take players that can contribute more now who are not as talented long-term than Gutey should not be GM.
An example would be Jameson William's who I think everyone knows by now is my draft crush. The guy is the best WR in the draft by most peoples evaluations and my own. He may not be ready to play until October or November, but so what? Do you pass on him simply because he may not be ready the first half of the season? The long term investment based on talent is there without question and he has potential to be one of the best in the league. My hope is Gutey is thinking both short term and long term and can figure out how to bridge this with those who are going to benefit the team for years to come.
WestCoastPackerBacker
April 09, 2022 at 11:31 am
Your statement seems to assume that anyone can know with certainty that someone will be a reliable starter as a rookie. That is completely unknown at this point for every single player in the draft. If you remember the year they drafted our very talented left tackle, he was chosen in the fourth round, well the number one and number two pics at left tackle never really panned out very well. You just can’t know until you see them against NFL talent.
What to say about arguing against paying the MVP quarterback what he is worth? I think fans are just incredibly angry that Green Bay lost to the Niners. And so they blame that on #12 and swallow media stories about Rodgers. Would you rather be like the Saints? Or the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, or giants? None of them have been very fun to watch since they lost their Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. Would you rather be a fan of a team that is going 9-8 with a cheaper QB?
gjbender1
April 09, 2022 at 09:52 am
Sorry, but I stopped taking you seriously when you implied that Tyreek Hill is not a top 3 wide receiver in the NFL.
PeteK
April 09, 2022 at 11:31 am
Kupp, Adams, Samuel are better and probably Chase.
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 11:50 am
I think we're talking about guys who are on the same tier, and all of them are different kinds of players.
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 03:55 pm
Fair reposte, though I’d be happy with any of those.
Since'61
April 09, 2022 at 10:06 am
It seems crazy to me that teams are paying such outrageous sums to WRs. Even on their best days they only have 10-12 touches per game. At best that is about 15% of their team’s plays on offense.
Even in his best seasons in Green Bay, Adams or any other receiver never averaged 10 receptions per game. Madness and desperation if you ask me.
As for the Packers, keep their 11 picks, I’m thinking they draft defense defense with their two first round picks, specifically DL and Edge. Then use their next 3 picks on WRs and go from there. We still have 6 picks to build some depth at OL, DB, LB, RB and STs.
Looking forward to receiving Al’s draft guide.
Thanks, Since ‘61
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 09, 2022 at 10:21 am
Since 61 more and more I like your approach as have been thinking the same. There is so much WR talent in rounds 2 thru 4. Get those big talented DL/EDGE guys and an OT high.
Since'61
April 09, 2022 at 10:42 am
Agree. We have a good chance to solidify our defense with our 2 first round picks. Then we can go heavy into the WRs with our second and third round selections. How much difference will there be between the 28th pick in the first round and a second round pick? It might even make sense to trade down from #28 and pick up another second round pick plus an additional 4th or 5th round spot. We'll see how Gute plays it.
Thanks, Since '61
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 01:04 pm
If it were me taking these first 5 picks, my hope would be to draft 3 defenders (a DL, a pass-rusher, and a S) and 2 pass catchers. I'd be hoping for a big TE and a developmental OT at some point, too. Everything else is projection and special teams contributors.
Leatherhead
April 09, 2022 at 01:30 pm
If it were me, and I'd just paid an enormous wad to an old QB, I'd make sure that the offense was loaded. I'd get blockers, and I'd get weapons. I'd do what I could to ensure Rodgers has help getting the ball into the endzone.
Take Burks at #22. Trade down #28 to get an extra 2nd and extra 3rd. Use both of those picks on offensive linemen. Use our pick at #53, which we got for trading Adams, on the best WR on the board and there are lots of them available. Get Velus Jones or Thornton in the 3rd at #92. Get a pair of TEs at 132 and 140
That's SEVEN offensive players and probably every single one of them has a shot at making the 53 man squad and dressing out on gamedays.
On defense, we'd rely on what we have and FAs. I understand the appeal of guys like Wyatt and different edge rushers, but the engine that's going to power the 2022 Packers is on the offensive side of the ball, and we should put all the horses we can there.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 02:30 pm
We could also take the pressure off this whole WR success thing for rookies and just run more. Way more.
Minimum 40-50 carries for our RBs. Draft a mauler OT at 22…
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 04:01 pm
Then why the hell did we pay Rodgers 50 million? If we don’t find a way to give him true catching talent it will prove that this wasn’t a thought out gambit but the result of screwing it up.
Yo your point though, this is a team built not to be centered on the QB but paying one to be it’s fulcrum in spite of that.
blondy45
April 10, 2022 at 01:04 am
I agree Coldworld, why did we cough up 50 million? To be fair, it was better to keep Rodgers instead of Adams. Again, I restate that no matter who the Pack drafts at WR this year, that player will not be a reliable # 1 go to option this year. When we lost Adams, MVS, and ESB, we were screwed. The tight cap (thanks to Rodger's contact) limited us so we could not upgrade our team with FA vets. Until games start in September, we have no idea right now what our roster is going to be. We should have a great Defense, an improved Special Team, and a run game that needs to be the strength of our team on offense this year. Again, the draft is for the future, not the immediate plug-in fix it now players, especially picking at 22 and later.
MainePackFan
April 09, 2022 at 07:17 pm
"Burks at 22. Velus or Thorton at 92, back to back TE at 132 and 140" Your fired LB :)
Since'61
April 09, 2022 at 07:55 pm
Leatherhead I agree with your overall approach. Where I disagree slightly is that our offense will not be as prolific as it has in the past. We will be more of a grind it out offense with a solid run game and a quick short passing game. We will not be able to win shootouts. or come from behind as we have in the past. Maybe in a one score yes. But the bottom line is that we are going to need a defense that consistently makes stops.
Therefore I believe that we should get some solid defensive players in the early rounds before the best are gone. I agree with taking a WR at 53 and 92, no problem. I'm also OK with trading down from #28 as I mentioned in my post. Basically I'm saying to prioritize defense and WRs with our first 5 picks or 6 if we trade down.
I don't know enough about college football players to identify which players to take in which rounds. However, I think we should've a plan going into the draft. I have no idea what Gute's board will look like or how he will decide which player to take if his top choice is already selected when the Packers are on the clock. but he could have priorities to focus on. Of course the trade play is a wild card and could impact numerous decisions.
Bottom line it's a crap shoot. Hopefully we are holding good dice. Stay safe. Thanks, Since '61
MainePackFan
April 09, 2022 at 12:10 pm
Since 61. You are thinking the same way I am. Every mock I do I try to get Wyatt at 22. Easy to do on PFN, but probably not so much in real life. I then take Mafe or the best edge at 28. I have been able to trade up to get Dotson and then grabbed Pierce at 53.
If the Pack walk out the first two rounds with that combo I would be thrilled.
Then I worked on OT, DB, LB in rds. 3 and 4. All along the way, I have tried to target players that have special teams experience.
Sorry, gotta go, Gute's calling me :)
Since'61
April 09, 2022 at 08:05 pm
MainePackFan - if it is Gute calling make sure you get well paid! Thanks, Since '61
Gman1976
April 09, 2022 at 04:05 pm
Love that you want to keep feeding this defense to make it even stronger, but one of the picks should really be an OT. We haven't been able to win the NFC Championship game the last 2 seasons due to weakness at this position. Build the lines, & blow out our opponents!
Since'61
April 09, 2022 at 08:15 pm
Gman1976 - I'm OK with taking an OT early. A team can never have enough of the big nasties up front.
Thanks, Since '61
Leatherhead
April 09, 2022 at 10:47 am
We "bought" Davante Adams for a second round pick, and got very good play out of him for quite a few years, and now we "sold" him for picks #22 and #53. IMO, that's an impressive return on investment. That's like buying a nice car, driving it for 8 years, and then selling it for way more than you paid for it.
We should use both of those picks to get WRs, and see if we can do that trick again.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 10:55 am
Yeah, I can’t argue that and won’t. But, if Devonte Wyatt or Devin Lloyd is there at 22 and or 28, I’d pop em both, running up with the draft card in one hand and a champagne bottle in the other!
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 09, 2022 at 11:30 am
Lol...me too GG!
LambeauPlain
April 09, 2022 at 01:26 pm
Devin Lloyd would be a demon next to Campbell! So many of the first round ILBs in recent years have instantly made their D's so much better in their rookie years. Watt would be fine too, but if not WRs in the first, I would go OL at 28...so many quality, ready to start prospects.
However Watt one of the best in a class that has a few good players at the top and pretty average/below average after.
Watt, rotating with Clark, Reed, Lowery...Lloyd and Campbell playing behind them...Gary and Smith on the flanks and a nice DB group might give the Packers the best D since the Fritz Schmer days.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 09, 2022 at 11:32 am
LH,
Always love your analogies and thoughts. Agreed!
Now think about if Roger's was traded after 17 years and the haul we would have gotten. Would love to hear your analogy if that happened. :)
ImaPayne
April 09, 2022 at 11:41 am
Good call not ot mention the play he gave us while we had him.
Turophile
April 09, 2022 at 11:32 am
Top 12 receivers listed in the order listed at thedraftnetwork (best to 'worst').
Wilson 6'0", 183. Marginal weight and gone before the Packers first pick at 22.
London 6'4", 219. Good size, Lacks breakaway speed. Opinions mixed - might be there at #22, might not. His failure to run a 40 to this point in time is worrying.
Williams 6'1.5" 179. Too light to be a Packers outside WR. Very likely gone at #22
Dotson 5'11" 178. Again, too light for the Packers if they are to play outside.
Olave 6'1", 188. Marginal weight but talented, probably available at #22, just might be there at #28.
Burks 6'2", 225. Another powerfully built WR 4.55 40 time.. Probably there at #28, gone by #53.
Skyy Moore. At 5.9.5" he is probably short of the height requirement for outside WRs, GB likes 'em tall.
Christian Watson. 6'4", 208 4.36 40. Right in the Packers wheelhouse. Could be there at #53 but popular - might need to be snatched at #28
George Pickens 6'3", 200 4.47 40. Fits the Packer profile, some injury concerns, probably could be landed with the #53 or #59 picks
Alec Pierce 6'3", 213, 4.33 40. Great measurables. Depoending on who you listen to, could go early in round 2 or as late as mid round three.
David Bell 6'1", 212 4.65 40. Talented but relatively slow. Probably 3rd round.
John Metchie III 5'11", 187, 4.36 40. Not tall but quick. Round 3.
For me the value is at picks 53 and 59. If a run on receivers starts that may be too late. One alternative is to grab one of Olave, London, Watson, with a round one pick, so even if you miss out on a value for money WR pick at 53 or 59, you have at least one possible top WR.
PeteK
April 09, 2022 at 12:13 pm
Thanks for the comparisons. I like Williams and that frame can add some weight. The Olave pick while a good one, bothers me a bit because he wasn't even the best receiver on his team. Watson at 53 would be great. choices choices
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 09, 2022 at 12:20 pm
Turo,
One never knows what Gutey will do but believe you are probably right about drafting one WR in round 1. If he does I wouldn't be surprised if it is with #28, and it is a bigger body WR like Burks, Pickens, or Watson
stockholder
April 09, 2022 at 12:39 pm
Jalen Tolbert is the biggest mistake on your list. Everyone liked him at the senior Bowl. No injuries. Fast 40. Was the 5th best WR for tracking the ball deep. But what people are over-looking is this. He's #6 on the College football individual stats. Just behind Williams.
LambeauPlain
April 09, 2022 at 11:33 am
Steelers QB Dwayne Haskins killed in a car accident in FL. I am shocked! Great kid with a promising future with the Steelers after they traded for him from Washington. Just wow.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 09, 2022 at 12:22 pm
Unfortunate!
However, it was my understanding Haskins had a LOT of issues and was out of control partying, etc?
LambeauPlain
April 09, 2022 at 01:33 pm
Have not read all the details, but it seems he was in FL to workout with another player. I read he was hit by a car and it was not reckless driving by him...in other words a true "accident".
WestCoastPackerBacker
April 09, 2022 at 11:36 am
Thank you for the injection of sanity into the wide receiver discussion.
ImaPayne
April 09, 2022 at 11:39 am
My mind set I guess is totally different on this issue. Hey you got mulitple receivers in college looking great catching passes from lesser QB's then they will see in the NFL. Thus if they can catch those passes they can catch and run routes for the NFL as well.
I say you get two of three really top receivers and they will play out. Ya rusty at first but the wait shouldnt be long.
Jefferson of the Vikes didnt need three years to be the best in the league. He lit it up on day one. No reason our new guys cant. Forget experience go with youth
dobber
April 09, 2022 at 12:02 pm
"Jefferson of the Vikes didnt need three years to be the best in the league. He lit it up on day one. No reason our new guys cant."
Nothing quite like assuming the special case is the norm.
beerandbrats
April 09, 2022 at 02:05 pm
Good article Cory. My take away is that the veteran wide receiver market is out of control and the Packers cannot afford a veteran contract. Putting all of our eggs in the rookie basket is a considerable risk. What if we swing and miss? I anticipate the Packers making a move for a veteran receiver at some point before the season starts. I took a beatdown for mentioning AB but this is exactly why I brought him up. The Packers have little cap space but they need a veteran receiver! I won't go there again but I will keep my fingers crossed and hope that we hit on a stud receiver in the 1st round of the draft! Go Pack!
stockholder
April 09, 2022 at 12:23 pm
Just when you think 2 WRs would be perfect. Gil Brandt comes up with his latest Top 100. He's a Burks over Olave man. But this caught my eye. Ranked @ #33. Travis Jones DL Cinn.
The 6-4, 325-pounder's 40 time was 4.92 seconds at the combine, ninth-best among participants weighing 280-plus pounds. According to PFF, Jones led Connecticut last season with 25 QB pressures.
LLCHESTY
April 09, 2022 at 12:50 pm
Still stuck on 40 times hunh? 40 times don't matter at all for D lineman. 10 yard split, 3-cone and jumps are all MUCH more important. His 7.33 3-cone is a freakish time at that weight.
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 04:07 pm
I second that, Fastest DL 40 on our roster was Lancaster. Slowest 10 time though, and it showed in his inability to get penetration and slow short area adjustments.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 12:55 pm
Thanks for the share stockholder. If that’s GB’s pick, I will not argue Travis Jones. Super talent Pro ready with immense skills v. pass & run.
GB D allowed >60% conversion rate on 3rd & short.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 09, 2022 at 04:26 pm
That's good data right there GG. Doesn't surprise me though as watching teams picking up those 1st downs. Why someone like Wyatt or Davis would really be a blessing.
jannesbjornson
April 09, 2022 at 01:23 pm
I like Reuter's mock with the trade of #28 to Belichick for the #21. He had them giving the three pick and #132 to go up in a chess move to control the middle hoping for Olave, and bagging Karlaftis. I would move the #140 in that deal. In any case get back to your focus on Speed and forget the Muc carthy offense, hopefully LaFleur will delete some of the remants from the scrap heap Rodgers was employing with Adams. Skyy Moore with a two and Lucas at OT. He went DT in the fourth with Zach Carter. No complaints with that order.
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 03:13 pm
Jannesbjornson, we’ve studied these receivers front to back. If the Packers feel it best to hit D, I’ll understand it with one of 22 or 28. Both might be a gamble, and a big mistake.
Depends on if they want the top players, truly, for LaFleur’s concepts, and those require, on top of high quality, reliable route running, hands, separation and toughness, both SPEED & YAC.
I think if we pass on Skyy or Jones, KC takes either right behind us as Tyreke Hill’s replacement. Possibly both, if we give them that opportunity at 29 and 30.
***Actually, MVS is the ONLY WR that KC has under contract past this season. KC is DYING to grab 2 WRs early in this draft.
Seems Skyy will go R1. Possibly ahead of us to New Orleans with the 18 or 19 - as the Saints need WR, OT and QB.
A lot of this is projecting what a player’s going to do as a Pro. I think Jones is THE guy - the one in this class who will project as the high-volume, unstoppable #1WR. I firmly believe that’s the case.. Anyone added to that will be a bonus - be it Burks, Moore, Dotson, Watson, Tolbert, Pierce…
—
One other thing on taking a D player, or a starter at OT, or both before hitting WR: There are plenty of great ones we can add later. The cream of this WR crop will reside somewhere between #8 and #44. That’s my guess. 52 and 59 might be a little late to take our first WR this draft.
There’s some small school guys I like later who I think might eventually be able to help, but…
As mentioned many times, even the best rarely become 1000 yd WRs as rookies. I think Jefferson 2 years ago was a bit of an outlier (possibly the best WR I’ve seen drafted in decades - you could see the silky smooth Lamborghini stuff he has at the combine), as was Chase last year… While we might re-sign Lazard, I hope we do, we will still need quality contributions from the best we can find.
Also, we can run the damn rock more too… and should. Troy Aikman never won an MVP, but he did win 3 Super Bowls, and Emmitt Smith was a 4-Time Rushing Champion during that span.
stockholder
April 09, 2022 at 03:25 pm
KC Needs S, WR, ER. I say they jump up for a WR. Burks won't make #28. And might not make it to #22 now. The Safety position is Deep. And Mofe is the next guy up. ( at ER.) Expect KC to try to get ahead of the packers.
TxPackFan
April 09, 2022 at 02:10 pm
Bold prediction followed by the rationale.
Bold prediction: The Packers package their 2 first round picks to draft one of the top 2 or 3 (Wilson, London) receivers of the class. (Possible one first and one second for Olave).
Rationale: If the Packers are truly "all-in" on 38 y.o. Aaron Rodgers' last year(s), then they will need the receiver they pick to be ready to dominate on Day 1. Having to develop (Burks, Dotson, Pickens) or wait for (Jameson Williams) the pick to be a solid #1 is a deal breaker. They've made the Rodgers commitment, so there is really no time to waste. The clock is already ticking. If one of the top 2 gets past the 10th or 12th pick, they have the draft ammo to go get their Day 1 dominator. And they can't hesitate and *hope* that Day 1 guy somehow falls to #22.
I can see a scenario where either Drake London or Garrett Wilson slips to, say, 13 where a team like the Texans -- who need help all over their roster -- would probably jump at the chance to get our #22 and #28 for their #13 and #68. That allows the Texans (or whoever) to have their chance.to pick a larger quantity of impact players while the Packers get their chance to pair a Day 1 dominator with an elite but rapidly aging Rodgers. Win-win.
If this is the window they're banking on, they don;t have the luxury to wait on a kid to develop. He will need to be special (IN THE NFL) right now.
stockholder
April 09, 2022 at 03:32 pm
London will drop. Stay @22. They will get a good player. And good players; are better than a question mark.
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 04:11 pm
If London doesn’t run or runs poorly, maybe. If he runs well then no.
stockholder
April 09, 2022 at 04:16 pm
The saints have brought in Williams and Burks. The Patriots are looking at Olave and Pickens. Don't think running poorly has anything to do with it. McShay says Watson for the chiefs.
White92
April 09, 2022 at 03:36 pm
Depending on rookie wideouts to get you to the SB is a fools errand. While I agree taking a receiver or two in the first round is the thing to do, I'm just not going to have very high expectations for 2022 unless they also somehow get legit veteran help.
croatpackfan
April 09, 2022 at 03:55 pm
"Gutekunst saw the fork in the road and made the right decision."
What right decision was made by Gutekunst? He was pushed to trade Davante Adams (packers matched the Raiders offer at least, by other reports they offered more than Raiders!) and let go MVS and ESB, but there was information they tried hard to sign MVS. So that was not Gutekunst decision. That was the players decision to go elsewhere...
"Whenever you have to choose between the elite quarterback and the elite wide receiver, you have to always choose the elite quarterback."
While I agree with your claim, I do not think that Packers have, at the moment, "elite quarterback" as many still believe. Father time catched AR and that fact will not be erased by repeating all the time that AR is elite QB, because he is not any more. He was, once for some time, but he is not any more...
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 04:18 pm
An elite WR can make a decent QB look great, just look at Stafford and Kupp. The same can work in reverse, but only so far; the lesser player has to be good enough. Right now, it’s questionable if there is enough to balance out Rodgers in that equation.
Maybe a rookie can step in, but Jefferson types are rare. One in a year is a result and I don’t see an obvious candidate this year. The closest likely won’t play and I’d have taken Jefferson over Williams in a shot.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 09, 2022 at 04:38 pm
I think anyone looking for one WR to come in and carry the load from the onset is wrong. The Packers need a major infusion of WR and TE help.
Personally, I will be dissapointed if the Pack do not take at least 3 WR's and one tight-end (assuming no FA pickups or trades). I am not even convinced Cobb makes the team come 1st game of season. The Packers need two and maybe even three WR's to come in and carry the load but don't expect just one to do it alone. It can be done! We have a 4 time MVP QB for crying out loud with a good OL, and RB's. I am not seeing why there is this perception we cannot succeed with young WR's. With 4 pre-season games, and 17 games during regular season those rookies get one hell of a lot of experience by end of year.
stockholder
April 09, 2022 at 06:04 pm
April /6 / 2022 DRAFT Mock by Long. -- Sends Jordan Love and pick #28 to Panthers for #6 Wilson Wr.
croatpackfan
April 10, 2022 at 03:02 pm
Unfortunatelly for you, Jordan Love isn't going anywhere else than to Lambeau Field.
MaryAnderson
April 10, 2022 at 02:58 pm
Make money online from home extra cash more than $18000 to $21000. Start getting paid every month Thousands Dollars online. I have received $26000 in this month by just working online from home in my part time.
just Open This Website.....> 𝗪𝘄𝘄.𝗡𝗲𝘁𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗵𝟭.𝗖𝗼𝗺
gsd3
April 13, 2022 at 02:32 am
Putting aside the needs for the upcoming season and looking at the big picture, there is 1 receiver under contract for 2023. Additions must be made this year and next year as well. With 11 picks in the draft, I could see them adding at least 2, possibly more.
I know many would disagree with this but if Olave and Burks were both there at 22 and I had to make a choice, I would go with Burks. Olave is more polished, faster, and a better route runner. Burks is a weapon. People want to knock his speed but he does not get caught from behind. He ran a 4.55. Adams ran a 4.56. Burks is also a big strong guy who will help in the running game in a variety of ways.
I would go Burks at 22, Watson at 28, and Velus Jones JR if he is there in the 4th round because he has speed and is one of the top return guys available.
Just my 2 cents.