Cory's Corner: The Rookie Deal Or Franchise QB?
The Packers have bucked the trend by being patient with their quarterbacks.
The middle class is disappearing in the NFL — at least at quarterback.
For years, teams believed they could survive with a solid but unspectacular starter. A quarterback who might not dominate games but could manage them. That middle tier of passers once populated the league, players good enough to win with the right roster around them.
But the modern NFL has moved toward a two-tier reality: elite superstars or rookie contracts.
Teams now either commit massive money to franchise quarterbacks or quickly start looking for the next one in the draft. The financial structure of the league is a major reason why.
Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert have reset the market with contracts that approach or exceed $50 million per year. Those deals are justified because those players can elevate an entire roster. They are the rare quarterbacks who can overcome roster flaws and still carry their teams deep into January. But there are also outliers as well. Dak Prescott’s average contract is worth $60 million and Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love’s deals are both $55 million. All three of those guys have four combined playoff wins.
If teams don’t have their franchise guy, they chase the financial advantage of a quarterback on a rookie contract. A young quarterback making a fraction of a veteran’s salary allows teams to spend heavily at other positions. The model has worked across the league: load the roster while the quarterback is cheap and hope he develops quickly enough to take advantage of the window.
That strategy, however, has created a new form of impatience. There are plenty of examples. Josh Rosen was traded after one season, Johnny Manziel was out after two seasons, Paxton Lynch was released after two seasons, Dwayne Haskins was released during his second season, Trey Lance was traded after two seasons, Zach Wilson was replaced and then traded inside of three seasons, Mac Jones was traded after three seasons, Justin Fields was traded after three seasons and Sam Darnold was traded after three seasons.
And those are just first rounders starting from 2014. There are also second rounders like Jimmy Clausen, DeShone Kizer, Drew Lock and Geno Smith.
Young quarterbacks are often expected to prove themselves almost immediately. If they struggle early, franchises begin searching for the next solution before the current one has fully developed. The league’s quarterback carousel spins faster every season.
In that environment, patience has become one of the rarest qualities in the NFL.
Which is why the approach taken by the Green Bay Packers stands out.
Green Bay has long resisted the league’s urgency at quarterback. Instead of forcing young passers onto the field right away, the organization has trusted development and time.
Love is the latest example.
After being drafted in the first round in 2020, Love spent three seasons learning behind Aaron Rodgers. He watched, practiced and waited. In many organizations, that type of timeline would have been seen as wasted opportunity. In Green Bay, it was part of the plan.
The Packers had already followed the same formula decades earlier with Rodgers himself, who famously sat behind Brett Favre before becoming a starter.
In a league obsessed with instant results, the Packers chose patience over urgency.
And it may be a model worth revisiting.
As quarterback salaries climb and the rookie contract strategy becomes more aggressive, teams are increasingly operating with narrow margins for error. The middle-class quarterback — the reliable veteran who isn’t elite but can still guide a competitive team — has become harder to justify financially.
The result is a league built on extremes.
Either you have a superstar worth every dollar, or you’re hoping the next young quarterback becomes one.
In that landscape, Green Bay’s approach serves as a reminder that development still matters. Quarterbacks are not always finished products when they enter the league. Sometimes, the best investment isn’t just money or draft capital.
Sometimes it’s patience.
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Cory Jennerjohn is a graduate from UW-Oshkosh and has been in sports media for over 15 years. He was a co-host on "Clubhouse Live" and has also done various radio and TV work as well. He has written for newspapers, magazines and websites. He currently is a columnist for CHTV and also does various podcasts. He recently earned his Masters degree from the University of Iowa. He can be found on Twitter: @Coryjennerjohn
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Comments (30)
Collins26
March 14, 2026 at 07:28 am
Love is in the second tier of quarterbacks he can win you a Superbowl but when there were the injuries that happened last season he just cannot elevate the rest of the team to get them over the top. The team is definitely better with him than without him but if he doesn't deliver a title this season it will be even more difficult down the road when you you have to pay Kraft a top of the market deal and Watson will command something north of 30 mil a season and then lose your depth
GregC
March 14, 2026 at 07:35 am
A Cory article is always good for at least one howler. This time it's listing Justin Herbert along with Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow as one of the three quarterbacks who can "elevate an entire roster" while contrasting them with Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, and Jordan Love, who only have four playoff wins among them.
Justin Herbert has an 0-3 playoff record. Cory isn't the only one who overrates Herbert, though. I see it all the time. I've got nothing against the guy, he's a very good QB, but for some reason there seems to be a different standard for him. Other QBs need to win a bunch of playoff games before they gain respect. Not Herbert.
The teams that win with young QBs don't have that as their main strategy. They just get lucky by drafting a really good one (often with a very early pick) and they ride the wave. They do not discard that QB when his rookie contract expires. They sign him to a big long-term contract.
Guam
March 14, 2026 at 08:03 am
The other chuckle I got was Cory referencing Love's contract as $55MM AAV. While nominally true, it is that high only because of the $74MM due on the last year of the contract. Love's actual cap hits over the current form of the contract only averages $32MM per year for the first four years of the deal. The $74MM will never happen. It is just there to get both parties to return to the bargaining table and negotiate a new contract.
dobber
March 14, 2026 at 08:43 am
Bingo...just like people went after ARod's contracts, I think his largest cap hit while active in GB was about $35M.
The Packers will either adjust Love's '28 bubble year through extension or they'll move on from him.
NFLfan
March 14, 2026 at 08:11 am
Love would 'improve' exponentially with a decent O-Line and top-notch play-caller.
BuckyBadger
March 14, 2026 at 08:39 am
He has a top notch play caller. His play caller got one QB back to back MVPs and just made a back up QB a ton of money.
I think Love plays above his talent level because of his coach who keeps things simple for him. Love has been playing a top 10 level now for 3 years. MLF has success with QBs, no one can deny that,.
NFLfan
March 14, 2026 at 09:54 am
MLF is an erratic play-caller in most second halves. He becomes emotional, challenges the wrong calls and cannot focus on clock-management
BuckyBadger
March 15, 2026 at 01:38 pm
He has his team in position to win all the time. People want to blame the collapses on the coach will blame the coach for everything. No one who has had the success with the QBs MLF has is a bad play caller, he has the results to back it up. He has gotten great results out of 3 different QBs.
In Chicago he didn't tell Love to have two grounding calls, that was Love making a mental mistake that killed two drives. He wasn't the one who couldn't hold a block all 2nd half giving no room for the run game to manage the clock. He isn't out there missing kicks. What happens when you can't net any positive yards in the run game, miss 3 kicks and your QB is making mental mistakes? You lose games and there isn't much a coach can do there.
I listen to a lot of handicappers who praise MLF as a top offensive mind and I agree with them. MLF had Rodgers a missed through away vs SF from a Super Bowl run as well. He gets his team there, the team has to cross the line themselves. No coach can do that for them.
BuckyBadger
March 14, 2026 at 08:37 am
Didn't Seattle just win a Super Bowl with a middle tier QB on a cheaper contract? I have been saying for years teams are over paying at QB. You can't pay just anyone Mahomes money unless he can actually give you that value. If not you are killing your team. Many times I would bet the team would be better off trading that QB for a bounty of picks and paying a Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield half the money and having a great team around them.
The 49ers are another team not paying their "franchise" QB top dollar. It is a copy cat league and Seattle just showed you don't need a QB on a rookie deal or an elite super star at QB to win. They did it by trading away their franchise QB and going with middle tier guys. Didn't work out with Geno but his contract was easy to cut and bring in Darnold.
Oxymoron 3339
March 14, 2026 at 09:02 am
Bottom line is if you have an expensive QB you need to be great at drafting players to get to the SB.
Oxymoron 3339
March 14, 2026 at 08:49 am
The Chiefs set the benchmark by Picking Mahomes and having him sit for a year under Alex Smith.
Then trading Smith and having several years with their QB being on a cheap rookie contract allowing them to improve the team around him. Signed multiple time All Pro Joe Thuney, drafted multiple time All Pro Creed Humphrey and excellent RG Trey Smith. So there interior OL was outstanding.
I am assuming the Pack was going down the same path with picking Love and having him sit for a year. Something went sideways and either Love wasn’t ready or 12 was just too good.
Anyway that cost us from benefiting from your QB being on a cheap rookie contract and from getting a bunch of draft picks for 12 (See Stafford to Rams Trade).
It also cost us because we had to resign Love after only playing a short while.
Since'61
March 14, 2026 at 09:17 am
Love would benefit from improving his footwork. He also would benefit from playing behind an improved OL. As of today the Packers starting OL appears to be, from left to right, Morgan, Banks, Rhyan, Belton, and Tom. If that is the case the OL is full of question marks. Will Morgan be a solid LT? Will Banks play up to his contract? Will Rhyan improve at center with a full TC prior to the season? Will it be Belton or another OL at RG? Will Tom return from his injury at 100%?
If the answer is yes to those questions than the OL and Love behind them should be fine.
The Packers need to start their best 5 and not play musical positions with their OLs. Hopefully the Packers do not have a repeat of 2025 in terms of injuries. Keep the OL together and let them play at their best positions. Thanks, Since '61
dobber
March 14, 2026 at 10:08 am
I'm not convinced, yet, that we know what that OL alignment will be. The draft and Tom's injury recovery might still have something to say about who's playing where. Whatever the case, barring injury, I hope they get their best alignment set in camp and roll with it.
Just as important will be finding a couple depth pieces that keep the falloff when players get hurt from being too large, and that can play capably enough that the Packers don't have to shuffle players to make the OL work.
Since'61
March 14, 2026 at 10:35 am
Yes, I agree Dobber which is why I said as of today. For a while, before FA began< I was thinking that maybe the Packers would go with Morgan, Banks, Tom, Belton and Walker. Obviously they have let Walker go and they resigned Rhyan. They had been rumors in the past of moving Tom to Center but I'm assuming now that won't happen.
Bottom line is that you are correct. We don't yet know what the final alignment might be. They can draft an OL who is ready to start at one of the positions and they probably should sign a low cost FA to add depth and experience for the OL. The Packers definitely need to figure it out and get it right before the season begins. Thanks, Since '61
dobber
March 14, 2026 at 10:04 am
Darnold's contract had him with $13M cap hit in '25, but that Seattle team really wasn't about Darnold--that said, I don't think they win it with Geno Smith. I don't think anyone would call him elite. He had a really good supporting cast that was playing really well. They also had some beneficial cheap deals and high picks due to gaining the picks and shedding the contract from the Russell Wilson deal. Darnold's hit triples for '26, and Seattle lost some important pieces off their roster...look at their 2022 draft: Mafe, Walker, Woolen, Bryant--all those guys were key pieces from the first draft post-Wilson and had to walk. They did win a SB, though, which will make it easier to swallow the harder decisions.
I think there are several different case studies for getting to a title. Case studies, and not blueprints, because it's way too variable to be able to apply a term that's so deterministic. Sometimes winning an SB is just lightning in a bottle, but I'd argue the bottom line is that you have to have enough players, and they have to be coached (and playiing) well.
pantz_bURp
March 14, 2026 at 10:07 am
There appears to be something off with the culture or disconnect with the team these last few years. Not sure where it comes from but I would look at Coach LaF first. The collapses late in games recently is a troubling trend. And, home field advantage seems to only exist as a hollow talking point. Yes, give Coach LaF kudos for helping the QBs develop. But those are kudos reserved for a QB coach/asst coach...he is the Head Coach. Is he capable of instilling and holding Asst Coaches accountable? Maybe he is trying behind closed doors, but the proof in execution is lacking. Slowly we'll peel the layers of reasons (excuses) and they will all be exhausted at some point: youngest roster, injuries, starters not playing a role on STs.
I will be back to cheer on the GBP but not excited about the group tasked to turn it around.
Antz in the Pantz
Eating Grape Nutz for roughage
crayzpackfan
March 14, 2026 at 12:09 pm
I can't eat those Grape Nuts. It's like pouring a bowl of kitty litter while trying to convince myself through the melancholy and self loathing, that somehow, this is supposed to be throwing a party for my internal organs.
pantz_bURp
March 14, 2026 at 12:42 pm
Oh, do I understand you CPF! Loud and clear... 🤮
LambeauPlain
March 14, 2026 at 10:17 am
If other teams had the wisdom and the courage and good fortune to make a risky trade for a Favre, draft both Rodgers...then Love...while their predecessors were in their prime...other teams would have followed the Packers' acquire and develop strategy too.
And since Holmgren, the Packers have followed Ron Wolf's top priority "to get a top NFL QB" and had excellent QB coaching all during the reign of Favre, Rodgers, and Love.
They have not adhered to part two of Wolf's priority plan..."and surround that QB with an elite defense." After Favre, with few exceptions, Packer Defenses have been average to below average. I believe this has torpedoed more SB appearances.
Since'61
March 14, 2026 at 10:47 am
Lambeau Plain - Going back to the Lombardi era the Packers have not won a championship without a top 3 defense. IN '96 the defense was #1 in the league in points allowed. In 2010 they were #2. During the 5 Lombardi championship seasons the defense was ranked either #1 or 2 in points allowed except in '67 when they ranked #3.
I mention this because it supports Wolf's plan for having an elite defense to compliment their top QBs. The Packers 3 best QBs of all-time, Starr, Favre and Rodgers all had an elite defense when the Packers won their last 7 championships. Thanks, Since '61
Oppy
March 14, 2026 at 11:26 am
I'm just going to throw this out there for anyone who needs to hear this
the NFL salary cap is $301,200,000.
I repeat, the NFL salary cap is $301,200,000.
Carry on.
crayzpackfan
March 14, 2026 at 12:20 pm
And that doesn't mean being able to acquire more talented players, it means the same 3-4 players or positions getting paid even more money while everyone else only slightly moves up in pay. It has been this way since the dawn of the cap. 6 players use up 45-50 percent of your cap and then the rest spreads around to the rest of the team.
HarryHodag
March 14, 2026 at 11:38 am
The rumor that has been around is the Packers are in play for Anthony Richardson which would provide a troubled but experienced back up to Love. Love has had a number of injuries and not having a semblance of an adequate back up is troubling. I suspect they will try to draft one. They have Tune and McCord on the roster--both are inadequate--and Ridder who has flopped in other locations.
stockholder
March 14, 2026 at 12:28 pm
Forced change does not make you great.
Starting QB is just a title in Gb.
Hall of Famer says you were good.
LeotisHarris
March 14, 2026 at 02:16 pm
"For years, teams believed they could survive with a solid but unspectacular starter. A quarterback who might not dominate games but could manage them. That middle tier of passers once populated the league, players good enough to win with the right roster around them."
This era, I must have missed, when the middle tier passers, unspectacular starters populated the league. I understand they could manage games but might not dominate them. That must have been something. With the right roster around them.
canadapacker
March 14, 2026 at 06:50 pm
It is hard to win a Superbowl - How many did #4 and AR win each ? Love definitely has the talent and desire - now put the pieces together - and with some luck and a more consistent defense ( and I might add that Lafleur needs to fix his second half 3 and outs) - and we can win. Now we must admit that the Bears and the Lions are much improved since 4 and 12 played but they both could have had extra Superbowls - remember the 4th and 26 against the Eagles and AR's fumble in OT against the Cards. You build the team - and then get to the playoffs - which is what we have been doing - and if you get lucky and dont lose your QB to injuries ( or other key pieces) you have a chance if you are in the dance.
Since'75
March 15, 2026 at 09:57 am
"The Packers chose patience instead of urgency."
Well, that starts with having the luxury of 30 years of two HOF QB's
No team in NFL history has had that luxury.
Favre was actually urgency over patience.
With Favre, Rodgers had to sit for 3 seasons.
With Rodgers two MVP seasons in his late 30's, Love had to sit for 3 seasons.
*In retrospect, it's a good thing Rodgers won those MVP's, because if Love had to start early on, he might have been a disaster like some of those other QB's you mentioned.
Love needed those 3 years learning under Rodgers.
I think the Packers knew Love wouldn't look good, which is most likely why they refused to trade Rodgers when he asked to be traded.
Oppy
March 15, 2026 at 01:26 pm
I'm pretty certain Gutekunst was ready to move on from Rodgers a couple of years before we eventually did, but Mark Murphy wasn't having it.
Since'75
March 16, 2026 at 10:34 am
Being pretty certain, is like being kind of pregnant.
If you weren't there, and Gute or Murphy didn't tell you personally.
Then you are just writing fiction.
Because you don't know.
Oppy
March 16, 2026 at 09:01 pm
Oh, I see, so you can have your outlook on the matter ("I think the Packers knew Love wouldn't look good, which is most likely why they refused to trade Rodgers when he asked to be traded.") but I can't have mine?
Okay, whatever. For what it's worth, there was a ton of indicators I tracked and shared for the years leading up to Rodgers' eventual trade, including roster building queues and anomalous salary cap decisions, that were strong indicators of an impending changing of the guard a couple of years before they finally pulled the trigger. I guess we'll just go with they kept Rodgers because they knew Love needed more time, since, apparently, you were there and Gute and Murphy told you that personally.