Crunching Numbers: How Much Does The Packers Defense Need To Improve?

There is no doubt that in years past, due to injuries and other factors, the offense has not always been the caliber of a Super Bowl champion, but far more often than not the defense has been the culprit of the Packers’ postseason woes.

So, with the all-important draft approaching, and with fans and mock drafts alike calling for another year of defensive-focused drafting, the question should be asked: How much improvement do the Packers need on defense to go all the way? How reasonable is it to expect such a performance in 2017 on the defensive side of the ball?

Warning: There are a lot of numbers here to digest. History and literature brains should proceed slowly to avoid burnout - this includes me. Math and science brains will be disappointed there aren't more numbers. You can't please everyone. 

Let’s look at some recent history of Super Bowl champions’ defenses in comparison to what the Packers have done, and a little bit of broader Super Bowl champion defensive history.

One area in which the Packers have performed relatively well compared to the rest of the league has been in the pass rush. No doubt it needs to improve, but based on the numbers it has been serviceable. Nearly every Super Bowl champion, going back to the days of Willie Davis, has registered 30 or more sacks. The last four seasons the Packers have registered 40 (2016), 43 (2015), 41 (2014), and 44 (2013) and been ranked in the top third of the league. 

Naturally the conversation about the pass rush will bring to mind what happens on the back end of the Packers defense when the opponent throws the ball. It is no secret that performance has not been good enough. 

The passing defense rank for the regular season of the last five Super Bowl champions is as follows: 2016 New England – 12th, 2015 Denver – 1st, 2014 New England- 17th, 2013 Seattle – 1st, 2012 Baltimore - 16th. 

The Packers' passing defense rankings the last five years are as follows: 2016 – 31st, 2015 - 6th, 2014 - 10th, 2013 - 24th, 2012 - 11th. These numbers reflect a true roller coaster and the years where the defense is performing well against the pass, injuries were plaguing the offense. Except when it was all coming together in 2014. 

Recent Super Bowl champions have averaged 9th in pass defense, while the Packers have averaged 16th.

Turning now to the run defense rankings of the five most recent  Super Bowl champions, they are as follows: New England – 3rd, Denver – 3rd, New England – 9th, Seattle – 7th, Baltimore – 20th. 

The Packers' run defense rankings the last five years: 2016 - 8th, 2015 - 21st, 2014 - 23rd, 2013 - 25th, 2012 - 7th. 

Recent Super Bowl champions have averaged 8th in run defense, while the Packers have averaged about 19th. 

In the history of all 51 Super Bowls, the team with the best scoring defense during the regular season has won it all 15 times (29%).

The most recent four Super Bowl champions (Super Bowls 48-51) have been dominant in the category of points allowed, but the four before that (44-47) were surprisingly below average with the exception of the 2010 Packers. 

The regular season rankings in points allowed for the winners of Super Bowls 44-47 are as follows – Baltimore – 17th, Giants – 27th, Packers – 5th, Saints – 25th. 

The regular season rankings in points allowed for the winners of Super Bowls 48-51 are as follows -- New England - 1st, Denver - 1st, New England - 8th, Seattle - 1st.

The 2009-2012 period in Super Bowl history broke from the overall trend of Super Bowl history. The average defensive ranking through the first 47 Super Bowls was 7th. 

14 teams with the best overall scoring defense have appeared in the Super Bowl, and 10 won it.

The average scoring defense ranking of the last 11 Super Bowl champions is 10th. The Packers have averaged 16th the last five years.

So, let's summarize and oversimplify. The Packers need a 6-spot jump in scoring defense, 11-spot jump in run defense, and a 7-spot in pass defense, based on comparing their season averages with those of the Super Bowl champion of that year. The Packers sack the quarterback pretty well, so they have that going for them. 

Based on these numbers, can the Packers make it back all the way next season? If not, how long might it take? How many successful drafts?

Also, I am trusting the comments section to add more context to the data I've provided. I know you'll do good work. 

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Comments (22)

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Bearmeat's picture

April 23, 2017 at 03:35 pm

Can they make that jump? Yes. Will they? Honestly, I doubt it.

It depends on Randall and Rollins becoming good CBs. And CM3 staying healthy. And Clark/Lowry taking jumps. And Perry staying healthy. And a high defensive rookie pick contributing in a meaningful way.

That's a lot of "Ands." AND most of those "ands" would be avoided if TT would just build a roster using all available avenues.

FIRW TT for settling on very little risk and just hoping that young guys step up in order to win it all. (I'm only half joking here).

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stockholder's picture

April 23, 2017 at 01:53 pm

No. To many revolving doors. Until TT shuts them. Just division champions. And when the offense loses their magic and stars. People will say "The Pack will be back" in another generation.

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Colin_C's picture

April 23, 2017 at 02:01 pm

We won't get to the Super Bowl this season with a Bronco's or Seahawk's shutdown type defense. Maybe someday, but not this season. What we need to do is be a top 5 turnover defense. With 12 at the helm of the offensive, turnovers can quickly put game out of reach. I'm expecting the D to give up a lot of 20+ yard plays, but I hope it's balanced out by opportunistic turnovers.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2017 at 02:55 pm

"How much does the Packers defense need to improve?"

I'm going with: A LOT.

(Sorry if that's too precise. I'm one of those sabermetric geeks.)

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 23, 2017 at 03:10 pm

I am a stats guy, but all stats need context. "A lot." Yep, that covers it.

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Turophile's picture

April 23, 2017 at 03:45 pm

For improvement, I'm looking more at the year 2/3 guys on defense, than those from this years draft.

Clark, Fackrell, Lowry, Randall, Rollins, Martinez, Ryan. that's seven round 1-4 picks that should be making a jump in performance and that would impact all three levels of the defense. . If most of these guys improve AND If you could get a decent pass rusher and CB this year, that D could get better in a hurry.

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dschwalm's picture

April 24, 2017 at 10:55 am

"IF" is the operative word in this post. It just ain't gonna happen!

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4zone's picture

April 23, 2017 at 03:59 pm

Look at the overall Defense rankings of the packers their last two SB wins. Very sobering. We aren't remotely close to either and unless they draft three instant starters this year, not likely for some time

I am, however, quite excited about our two new TE additions and if we add a starting RB to our mix, we may not need a great defense this year.

Can't wait to see TTs new additions. Will be an exciting year ahead for sure. Would be nice to have a freak, low injury impact season for a change.

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dobber's picture

April 23, 2017 at 04:21 pm

in 2008, the season before their last SB win, they were in the low 20s in pass defense and around 10 in rush defense. Admittedly, last season the Packers were worse than that, but they made the jump in '09. Why not in '17?

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Tundraboy's picture

April 24, 2017 at 08:26 am

"Would be nice to have a freak, low injury impact season for a change."

Wouldn't that be great along with a surprise immediate impact draft pick. It is not like we are not overdue.

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4thand1's picture

April 23, 2017 at 05:58 pm

Regular season doesn't mean shit, when playoffs start the defense rears it's ugly head. The Pack made it to the NFCCG because Dallas had a shit D too. We all knew the Falcons were going to carve them up, we were all just hoping they would outscore them. This D has to get in the top 20 to win it all.

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stockholder's picture

April 23, 2017 at 06:21 pm

If I wanted an improved defense. And to stop a revolving door. This is how my mock/draft would be. I'm saying Watt is off the board before 29. Kevin King CB WA. is my first pick. Size speed and change of direction. Can play the outside. @61 Tyrus Bowser LB Hou. @92 Daeshon Hall DE Texas A&M You now have CB,LB,DE.

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Since'61's picture

April 23, 2017 at 06:45 pm

First the Packers defense needs to find some level of consistency. That means getting off the field on 3rd and long situations at least. It is frustrating to see the Packers defense with a 3rd and +7 and allow a first down, especially late in the game. At times like this we see either the pass rush disappear or the CBs totally lost or the middle of the field wide open. Why? The defense needs to get off the field in these situations. Beyond this the defense needs to protect the middle of the field better and needs better tackling overall. These are minimum improvements that must be achieved. We need better play from the DL, ILBs and CBs. Far too often, the Packer defenders look out of position when the play starts. Now I admit that I don't know every defenders assignment on every play but I do understand situational football and the Packers defense has been consistently bad at situational football in big spots and the result has been early playoff exits annually because we face the best offenses during the playoffs and they expose poor defenses. I don't need to go any further than the Atlanta debacle or the collapse in Seattle or Kapernick running all over the field during the 2012 playoff loss. Our offense can get us to the playoffs every season but the defense has determined how far we have gone in the playoffs. To me it's not a matter of rankings but rather a matter of when the defense makes stops. Make plays and get off the field at the end of the first half and during the 4th quarter. If our defense can achieve that they will have improved both in their performance and their rankings. That's what I look for and that is what the Packers defense needs to do. After that everything things else the defense achieves is gravy. Thanks, Since '61

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Tundraboy's picture

April 24, 2017 at 08:28 am

If I had to pick one single thing that I would like to see this year, it would be for us to get off the field on 3rd and long.

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

April 24, 2017 at 12:55 am

You can talk CB's, Shut Down Corners, Charles Wilson all you want, None of that means the same as it did 10 years ago. The league has changed, & you can argue for the Better, or Not. As DPF has said, you need Quality CB's to stop the opposing passing offence. I agree. I wish we had some. We haven't had Quality CB's in a long time. It won't help that much if Randall & Rollins improve & play like average CB's. The edge has been taken away from the CB's & given to the WR's. That will never change back. Also, every CB in the league is at a huge height disadvantage to most starting receivers. Pass Rushing should be 1st in GB's thinking, while the league still allows the opposing QB to be tackled. I've said a number of times, GB should stop trying to stop the pass, & try to stop the opposing QB. We need Quality pass rushers. Maybe a different defense. This linebacker thing we've tried for 10 years, isn't working. CM3 is all but through in my opinion. He's been hurt since the day we got him, & he doesn't seem to be getting any better. I don't know what the answer is, but I don't think it's T J Watt.
I've seen him play enough. He's a good football player, but no where's near JJ. Potentially he might get there, but I don't think our defense will improve much with him. I'm afraid AR will have to carry most of the load, once again. I don't care who they draft, I don't see any different defense on the field than the one that's made us all sick, for much too long of a time. I think they should work on extending AR as soon as possible.
LVT

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Mebrooks5291's picture

April 24, 2017 at 03:19 am

one thousand times over

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croatpackfan's picture

April 24, 2017 at 03:23 am

Everybody posting here has at some percentage right. Pesimists and optimists.
I say, not counting injuries (or, better to say rush of the injuries) hit heavily on one position group, Packers D should be at least average.
So, I might be unrealistic optimist, but I think Packers will be substantially better.

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packrulz's picture

April 24, 2017 at 05:25 am

I think losing Raji hurt our D a lot. TT let Heyward walk, Shields couldn't play, (again), Gunion will be suspended. Capers is a good coach, but he needs some quality players to work with. At least half of our draft should be defensive players, with at least 2 CB's, an OLB, an ILB, and a DT. We need more speed on both sides of the ball. I would love it iff TT traded down for more picks. I think Watt will be gone, but I really think his team mate, Vince Biegel, would be a nice consolation price in the 3rd round. I think this is a deep draft for our needs.

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4zone's picture

April 24, 2017 at 10:54 am

Vince Biegel is better in coverage than TJ. I think I'd try to get him in the third instead of TJ. Better value, wider skill set.

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Matt Gonzales's picture

April 24, 2017 at 08:15 am

Something that strikes me about these stats is they are all very illustrative... but they kind of miss the point, as most of the 'meaningful' stats are interdependent. We do have a strong pass rush, and our interior line and safeties are pretty strong. A good secondary fixes most of the issues:

First, and obviously, it fixes the pass defense if we can get better coverage.

Second, a stronger secondary does actually improve our pass rush as the opposing QB will be holding onto the ball longer.

Third, it could improve our turnovers as QBS either make errant throws under pressure OR take riskier chances because they are rattled.

Fourth, it allows our safeties to come into the box more often because we won't need to sell out to stop the pass. Heck, with stronger corners we may be able to actually put 3 DLs on the field for a change. This should translate into a better run defense.

These things should combine for a better scoring defense, though it also requires the offense to keep the defense off the field.

I'm not saying marginal improvements aren't needed all over. But, the building blocks are there in more places than they aren't. If GB can improve the secondary and keep the same (or better) production from their OLB core and maintain consistent offensive efficiency, it should actually lift the unit as a whole.

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4zone's picture

April 24, 2017 at 10:58 am

I think the position of greatest impact would be NT. Problem is getting one. If you can collapse the middle of the pocket, the edge guys will have a field day.

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davids's picture

April 25, 2017 at 12:51 am

This is really good blog .

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