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Film Review: Packers' Draft - Day 3

Day three of the NFL Draft came and went for new Packers’ General Manager Brian Gutekunst and while days one and two were mostly celebrated, some fans had a few more questions on day three. Most of the second guessing was in regards to trading up for a punter in the 5th round and then doubling down on specialists by taking a long snapper in the 7th round.

We’ll get to the tape of the day three picks in a moment, but first I’ll give you a quick take on the two different philosophies that seemed to take shape during the draft. In the first 140 picks, Gutekunst and team identified players that could come in and compete for roster spots and playing time from day one.

In my previous pieces we’ve discussed the opportunities that Alexander, Jackson and Burks have to immediately contribute on defense; but don’t be surprised if Cole Madison and J’Mon Moore push for playing time as well. Moore will be battling players like Geronimo Allison, Trevor Davis, Michael Clark and Deangelo Yancy for playing time behind Cobb and Adams. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of super talented receivers.

The same goes for Cole Madison. Madison, at the moment, could be battling Jordan McCray, Lucas Patrick, Kyle Murphy, and Jason Spriggs for playing time along the line. While McCray and Patrick both showed flashes last year, there are plenty of opportunities on the right side of the line, especially if Bulaga isn’t ready by week one.

So in the first 150 picks Gutekunst focused on players who could fill immediate needs. Then, from pick 150 on, he focused on players who either:

1) Can come in and make an impact on a long-struggling special teams’ unit
2) Have a massive athletic profile and huge upside but haven’t quite put things together yet
3) Have both tremdnous upside and can immediately make an impact on special teams

From a special teams’ standpoint, Gutekunst obviously drafted JK Scott to come in and compete with Justin Vogel. Scott is a fluid kicker with a weapon for a leg as both a punter and as a kickoff specialist. Scott can also be used as a holder and can kick extra points and field goals in a pinch. With Hunter Bradley they hopefully found their long-term long snapper. The amazing thing is, there’s a real shot that Bradley could stay on this team longer than any other player in the draft class. Good long snappers are hard to find and when you find one you generally try to keep them around for a long period of time.

Both Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Kendall Donnerson are players who have extremely impressive athletic profiles and have the ability to help on special teams immediately. Valdez-Scantling as a Jeff Janis-esque gunner and Donnerson as a coverage specialist who plays like his hair is on fire. If both can make an impact on special teams their odds of making the team go through the roof.

Meanwhile, James Looney and Equanimeous St. Brown are huge upside players who once again have incredible athletic profiles. Looney needs to add functional strength and become more consistent on a down by down basis but his flash plays are impressive. St. Brown also needs to work on his consistency but more importantly needs to fine tune his route running and develop a much broader route tree. If either can develop they both have the potential and athletic ability to play at a high level in this leaguei

Overall I thought it was a masterful job of navigating the draft by Brian Gutekunst. I guarantee you that at least one diamond in the rough comes from pick 170 or later. Now enough about philosophy and predictions, here's the tape breakdowns on Green Bay's day three picks:

J’Mon Moore

J’Mon Moore is easily one of my favorite picks in this draft. He needs to work on limiting his drops and will need to develop his route running but he just absolutely looks like a Packers receiver. If you watch enough of him you start to see more and more Davante Adams in his game. He’s obviously not at that level yet, but amazingly enough, he has very similar upside.

Moore’s athletic profile is incredible and the only minor blip on the radar was a 4.6 – 40 at the combine. He quickly erased those fears with a sub 4.5 – 40 at his Pro Day and his game speed on tape looks fast enough. Moore shows the ability to win on short, intermediate and deep routes and is adept at finding yards after the catch. He’s going to make an impact on the team sooner or later; the only question is how long will it take him to acclimate to this level.

Cole Madison

If you’re not familiar with Washington State’s offense, they throw the ball a lot. If you’re not familiar with Green Bay’s offense, they throw the ball a lot. It's not hard to see why this is a good fit. Madison will need work on his run blocking but with some time in the weight room and some additional technique work he will be able to pick that up much easier than a player who is a solid run blocker but struggles in the passing game. Madison, like Moore, looks like the traditional Packer pick. He was a tackle in college who will kick to guard in the pros and has great versatility on the offensive line.

Ideally it would probably take a year for Madison to develop in the NFL and in the offense but with the current depth on the offensive line he will challenge for playing time sooner rather than later.

JK Scott

Scott has a unique punting motion and has very few punts returned. He did shank a couple kicks this past season and both were under 20 yards. Scott has a Lambeau-ready leg and can be a weapon on punts and kickoffs while also holding on field goals and being used as an emergency kicker. Justin Vogel won’t go down quietly in this battle but the showdown between Scott and Vogel should be a fun one. Don’t be surprised if Green Bay can pick up a 7th round pick at the end of camp for whichever of these punters doesn’t make the team.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Valdez-Scantling has rare high-end speed. It seems Green Bay drafts one of these receivers every year (Kevin Dorsey, Jeff Janis, Trevor Davis, etc...); a fast receiver who could potentially be a deep threat on offense while helping on special teams for the time being. MVS will really need to hone his craft because he’s far from a finished product, but again, if he can make it on special teams he buys himself time to develop as a wideout.

Equanimeous St. Brown

Besides having one of the best names in football, ESB also can play some football. There were many that were hoping the Packers would take ESB at the end of round three or beginning of round four. That was always a little high for my liking but Green Bay certainly got a really solid player in the 6th round. ESB also has a fantastic athletic profile and is incredibly dangerous when he gets the ball in his hands. Unfortunately he is a year or two away as a route runner and really needs time developing his technique as a receiver. He’s a really good bet for the practice squad in 2018 but don’t be surprised if he breaks out a year or two down the road.

James Looney

When I put on the tape of James Looney for my breakdown on defensive tackles for the CHTV draft guide I wasn’t overly impressed. Looney struggles to hold up against stronger offensive linemen and plays with poor pad level. He’s a bit of a tweener and you just wonder if he has a spot in the NFL. That said, once again, his athletic profile is amazing and his flash plays are impressive. He will need to show he can make an impact as an interior pass rusher to stick with the team because he’s not going to help with much else for the next few years. While I’m not a fan of the tape, you’re not drafting him for what he was, you’re drafting him for what he can become. The potential is there.

Hunter Bradley

I’m not even going to pretend that I can breakdown long snapper tape. Here’s him snapping; judge for yourself!

Kendall Donnerson

This may sound crazy, but Donnerson has the talent and mentality to be the best 7th round pick since Scott Wells in 2004, Mark Tauscher in 2000 and Donald Driver in 1999. Don’t get me wrong, if you’re putting the odds on Donnerson becoming a long term starter or never making an NFL roster, give me the latter, but Donnerson impressed the hell out of me on tape. He’s going to win over coaches with his mentality and make it as a special teams star early in his career. He’s nowhere near ready right now but I just really have a feeling about this pick. Mark it down, Donnerson will be the steal of the 2018 draft.

As mentioned earlier, I really like the path that Brian Gutekunst took during the draft. He navigated the entirety of the draft like a seasoned veteran. Don’t be concerned about taking a punter or a long snapper in the 5th/7th rounds. The vast majority of players taken in these rounds don’t go on to anything in their careers. Gutekunst found ways to maximize the value of these picks by taking high end specialist and high upside lottery tickets. That’s the perfect philosophy late in the draft and I have a strong feeling it will be a winning philosophy for years to come.

You can find my breakdowns on the first two days of the draft here:

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/film-review-jaire-alexander-131

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/film-review-josh-jackson-oren-burks-228

__________________________

Andy Herman is an avid Packers fan and season ticket holder. He has graduated from National Football Post's and Sports Management Worldwide's NFL Scouting courses and is the owner of the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Find him on Twitter @sconniesports.

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (80) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

jeremyjjbrown's picture

Yeah, it is easy to see the Davante in J'mon. I do hope he matures more quickly than Davante though.

CJ Bauckham's picture

Depends on if he wrecks his ankle in year two

worztik's picture

Matt Ryan just signed a 5 year contract for $150 mil with $100 mil guaranteed!!! Can you say our priorities are way off base??? I’m definitely worth that (IMO) but, no one should make that much for playing a game... soooooo sad!!!

MITM's picture

I know what you mean but you must not be familiar with NBA contracts then. Basketball to me has some of the wildest contracts. Those guys dont have to worry about CTE, among so many other risks that come along with playing football. Those guys imo are the most overpaid. Also the same guys with the biggest contracts also have shoe deals comparable to their NBA contracts to boot. Insane

Flow49's picture

Why is it sad that they can make a boat load of money for being good at something? The NFL is a business and they bring tremendous value to that business.

worztik's picture

It’s sad that our priorities are sooooo warped!!!!!! But, I wouldn’t trade the football season for anything... well, “almost” anything!!!!

4thand1's picture

high ankle sprains suck

jeremyjjbrown's picture

I was talking more about mental and emotional maturation.

GBPDAN1's picture

Rodgers contract just went up :

"Kirk Cousins' reign as the NFL's highest-paid player lasted less than two months.

The Falcons have agreed to terms with quarterback Matt Ryan on a five-year, $150 million contract extension with $100 million guaranteed, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported, via a source informed of the situation. The new deal runs through the 2023 season and will make Ryan the first player to average at least $30 million per year. "

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

Atlanta only had $1.8M in salary cap space. Next year they were scheduled to have $60M, not counting Ryan, starting LT and LG Jake Matthews and Levitre, monster DT Grady Jarrett, RB Coleman, and to a lesser extent, starting SS Ricardo Allen.

I sense cap casualties coming.

flackcatcher's picture

What a way to decap your team. I know Atlanta had no choice but to sign Ryan. But this has to cut short any SB run they were planning. This looks likes New Orleans all over again. Makes me happy that TT was our GM.

The TKstinator's picture

Some people drink decap coffee.

stockholder's picture

I like the fact we drafted some Wrs. But Seriously, Devante Adams? Please don't go there. They'll cut st. Brown, and bury Valdez in the gunner spot. He's already a better route runner than Adams, viewing this tape. WE PLAYED THIS GAME BEFORE. And now the mix also includes Davis, Allison, and any other bubble player. Please don't put a cape on anyones back until they earn it.

Community Guy's picture

dreaming is part of the joy of being a football fan. at this point, why not think about how the new Packer additions are going to help the Green and Gold dominate the league? the future is not written.

Tundraboy's picture

Exactly. Take a walk back to the 70s and 80s when all we had was hope that any pick might be the one to turn things around, or even turn into a player.

Coldworld's picture

Don’t like the tone of post Stockholder, but it is true. It is now up to MM and co to give these physical specimens a chance by implementing appropriate plays for their current skill sets and talents

holmesmd's picture

Lol. You can’t be serious. Rodgers throws to Adams more than anyone. You think he does that because he “can’t run routes”?! That’s funny. You’ve obviously not seen how many defender’s ankles he’s “broken” at the line of scrimmage. If he’s vulnerable to a criticism, it’s an inopportune drop, not a friggin route. He’s a good WR and will be even better if some of these clowns help the guy out and produce at the position. I find your characterization of Adams reactionary and silly.

The TKstinator's picture

You might also want to fart in his general direction and call his door opening request a silly thing. Chances are his mother was a hamster and his father smelled of elderberries.

holmesmd's picture

I’m profoundly puzzled by your wordplay there;) Lol. WTH?:P Haha

The TKstinator's picture

https://youtu.be/QSo0duY7-9s

We have Monty Python to thank.

dobber's picture

I would've beat you to it, but I watched the clip three times before I posted it...

Now go away or I shall taunt you a second time!

The TKstinator's picture

Large segments of this are permanently burned into my memory.
(Approximately since the age of ten.)

We can’t risk another frontal assault; that rabbit’s dynamite!

Tundraboy's picture

Lobbeth thy Holy Hand Grenade so thou might blow thine enemy to tiny bits!

The TKstinator's picture

(In thy mercy)

Now if only I could remember how high to count first...

dobber's picture

youtube.com/watch?v=xOrgLj9lOwk

Minniman's picture

I so want to re-dub the word "Holy Grail" with "Quarterback" and photoshop John Dorsey's head on Graham Chapman (King Arthur)

dobber's picture
HankScorpio's picture

TK has been known to bang two halves of coconuts together.

The TKstinator's picture

Proudly, I might add!

jeremyjjbrown's picture

you empty-headed animal food trough water!

Tundraboy's picture

Good one.

Oppy's picture

I can't say I agree with your assessment of Aaron Rodgers unfortunately.

Oppy's picture

As far as if Rodgers liked to throw it to Adams, I doubled checked to confirm, and the numbers check out, Aaron Rodgers targeted Adams more than Jordy Nelson through the first 6 weeks of 2017. Both Cobb and Nelson were targeted 38 times, Adams 49 through week 6.

Projected to a full 16 game season, that would be 101 targets for Cobb/Nelson each, 130 for Adams, if Rodgers kept on dishing out the ball at the same rate. (It should be noted that Adams actually finished out 2017 with 117 targets, Cobb 92, Nelson 88 with Hundley at the wheel.)

4thand1's picture

I liked Adams right out of the gate, he gets open all the time. AR knows this and he saw what Adams could do and looks to him 1st. He was touting Adams skills and went to bat for him after his soph year when people were doubting him.

stockholder's picture

A-Rod didn't know dilly. Adams got his butt chewed on the sidelines. AROD LOVES BASKETBALL, AND ADAMS COULD JUMP. It took MM 4 years to figure out which routes were best for Adams. He couldn't complete routes and stopped on the field. INT A-Rod. But what is on display; is Adams cannot be counted on like Nelson. Lets not forget Adams is not a 1000 yard WR yet. Ok lover boys.

Oppy's picture

Lover boys? Lol.

Looks like this is a touchy subject for someone.

The TKstinator's picture

Everybody’s workin for the weekend

Oppy's picture

Been thinking about starting up a LoverBoy tribute band.

Gonna name the band, "CoverBoy".

Tundraboy's picture

Please don't. Not a commentary on your musical ability, just that the world needs to forget Loverboy.

The TKstinator's picture

Respectfully disagree.
Red leather pants 4 ever!

Tundraboy's picture

Respectfully laugh. Enjoy.

Oppy's picture

I supplied targets from 2017, and specifically excluded Hundley's tenure under center (hence, first six games). The projected targets were based on the rate at which Rodgers was throwing to Jordy/Davante/Cobb.

I just can't get on board with Rodgers throwing guys open at this point. He used to throw into tight widows, no question- but the last few years he shies away from throwing to most WRs unless they are WIDE open, exception being Nelson back shoulder tosses and Adams in general.

I agree whole heartedly a more balanced offense will be best for the Packers. That means using ALL the weapons on the field and running the ball more frequently. That said, I have no questions that Adams could shoulder the load if he were force-fed the ball. I'd rather not see that happen. I believe he will still be a big producer either way.

dobber's picture

You could normalize that back to number of snaps played, too. Each of Cobb and Nelson missed virtually a whole game early in the year (Cobb missed CIN and was on a pitch count against DAL, Nelson missed all but 7 snaps of the ATL game). Adams missed a little over a quarter of the Chicago game.

Snaps played through game 6:
Cobb 251
Nelson 310
Adams 366
Targets/snap played:
Cobb 0.151
Nelson 0.122
Adams 0.133

Game flow/game plan all come into play when looking at a sample like this, but I would argue that 5+ games is enough to start to get a feel for tendencies, especially in players that have played together for awhile like ARod has with these three. You could turn those numbers into number of snaps played per target (so invert the ratio) and Cobb got a target every 6.6 snaps he played, Adams every 7.5 snaps, and Nelson every 8.2 snaps. Maybe these numbers hint toward why, in part, Nelson was let go and Cobb was kept. But I would argue that those numbers are actually pretty clustered up on this sample size for Cobb and Adams, and for Adams and Nelson, but the difference between 6.6 and 8.2 seems pretty meaningful over almost 1/3 of the season.

In Edit (to beat a dead horse): in 2016, the numbers looked like this:
Nelson: 16 games played, 1013 snaps, 152 targets, 6.7 snaps/target
Cobb: 13, 679, 92, 7.4
Adams 16, 913, 117, 7.8

Oppy's picture

good stuff, dobber.

Have to say im shocked by the cobb rate. Seen him passed over so much in the last two years- surprised he was getting so many targets per snap. could be even higher. i feel like his numbers could be astronomical.

Coldworld's picture

Thank you again for all the work. Great to see tape on these picks. Certainly shows some raw promise. Even the long snap: one thing that we haven’t seen in GB in a very long time is a long snapper getting out and tackling the returner for a minimal return!

CJ Bauckham's picture

Donnerson will pick up a flag for that second to last clip, lol. But boy is he a specimen

Johnblood27's picture

its hard to make a tackle when even the punter gets further downfield after kicking!

Oppy's picture

Donnerson looks like he might be just on the wrong side of the aggressive/reckless line.

The helmet to the head of the QB is bad, but blowing up your own RB in an underwear practice seems a little questionable. Granted, he didn't drive him into the dirt.. but I'd be a little nervous about this guy trying to show out in training camp and hurting one of my starters.

Keep it in check, and I'm on board though :)

croatpackfan's picture

If Packers starters can not suffer light TC collisions, I can not imagine how quickly they will be injured when preseason starts...

Oppy's picture

Pads make a big difference, croat

croatpackfan's picture

Just to some extent. Pads remove sharp bumps and spread them over larger area. But when you have body collision (pads on pads) it is not that large help. Because you got collision from large area already so, it force stays the same. That is why players always feel "beaten" after football game...

Pure physics

sonomaca's picture

With Landry available at #42, why didn’t Pack move up the three spots to get him? I have many questions about Josh Jackson.

Madison is a good tester and a poor player, at this point. Spriggs 2.0?

Every pick after Alexander is a question mark, and even he isn’t a sure thing. This could turn out to be a bad draft, although I hope not.

The TKstinator's picture

I’d take that to mean GB was not that enamored with Landry.
Every draft pick is always a question mark. Every year, every time.
Death and taxes, señor!

Johnblood27's picture

are you kidding me?

madison a workout warrior? have you ever seen wsu play? he has very good feet and a nasty streak.

the titans need fans, get your landry jersey and hit the road!

worztik's picture

Man Man!!! Give it a rest!!! I’m soooo happy that we picked 2 corners with our first 2 picks! Especially as BOTH had 1st round projections. I’m not even gonna bring up the extra 1 next year... that would be redundant! We have outstanding edge rushers, if and when healthy, but, who’s to say a rookie won’t get hurt in TC? Gute and his staff knew what they were doing at every step along the way! I’m soooo pumped to see how they do but, to condemn the draft at this point is just plain ass-o-nine!!! Just sayin’...

The TKstinator's picture

Bordering on ass-o-ten!
(!!!!!)

Oppy's picture

Ass-o-nine-to-five is when you take it to a professional level

The TKstinator's picture

Ass-o-seven is what’s left after budget cuts.

dobber's picture

Wasn't Ass-o-seven of nine a character on Star Trek Voyager?

4thand1's picture

Thanks for the clips, I don't have search all over the place, just come here and get insight and put in my 2 cents. Might have to take a road trip to GB and become a rail bird for a day or two since I retired.

Oppy's picture

If you've never done it, I highly suggest it. It's great fun.

I try to get up and catch a day or two every season, I wish I could spend all of TC up there.

I miss the two-a-days

MarkinMadison's picture

Interested to see how the WRs look against NFL competition. Clark has intriguing height but little else. It's probably time to shake up the bottom of the WR roster. Waiting to hear them say, "J'Mon Man" on the Sunday morning show. You know it's coming. Write it down. I called it first.

Seriously, I hope everyone is wrong about Madison and that he is Tauscher 2.0. Spriggs 2.0? Please. Show me a tackle who is not ripped and I'll show you a guy that everyone is projecting to guard. He may need to work on his strength (what rookie lineman doesn't) but he's got feet.

I like the JK pick. Vogel is really good 90% of the time, but he has some seriously poorly timed shanks. Maybe it is nerves.

The TKstinator's picture

Re: Madison, I agree about the feet vs. strength thing. I'd also wager that it's more realistic to expect a guy with good feet developing strength than the other way around. But as always, time will tell.

Handsback's picture

Thanks for the article. Gutsey made every pick count. LS, punter, and three receivers seem to be head scratchers at first but realize those picks will either provide depth (WR) and starting capability (LS and punter). Green Bay has always had UDFA make the team....maybe it won't be the case this year.
The picks of Madison, Looney (great name), and Donnerson were at positions of need. Will they be starters? Doubt it right away, but all three show they have the potential to make the team and starter possibilities.

RCPackerFan's picture

I just have to say, you guys at Cheeseheadtv do an amazing job, especially with all the draft stuff.

I can't wait to see the WR competition this summer. I really like the size they have at WR too. Clark, St. Brown, Valdes-Scantling are all 6'4+. Moore and Allison are 6'3.
We don't know who will make the 53, but having that kind of size on the outside is something we really never had before.

The only thing that we really know is that Adams and Cobb will most likely be on the 53. That means that 3-5 spots are open up for grabs. Allison, Davis, Clark, Yancey will be battling the 3 rookies.
Its going to be a fun battle to watch.

I bleed green more's picture

Davis better play strong from practice on.

RCPackerFan's picture

I really think Davis has to step up on offense or he maybe gone. I don't know if just being a punt returner is enough to save his job.

LambeauPlain's picture

Really a nice start for Gute. I was hoping he would have drafted Leon Jacobs over a LS in the 7th...but oh well.

He may not be done yet. For example, with Chubb now in Denver and the Broncos telling OLB Shane Ray they will not exercise his 5th year option, is a trade possible to get him in GB?

Going to be a fun camp.

cheesehead1's picture

Don’t know much about Ray. Would he be a big upgrade? With all our WR and RB why not package Montgomery in a trade. I like him but he just can’t stay healthy. Just a thought.

marpag1's picture

Maybe I'm the only one, but I'm pretty skeptical about the Cole Madison pick. At best, I think, he needs a redshirt year. He might be light on his feet and blah, blah, blah, but I don't see much anchor with this guy. You move him to guard and put him up against stud NFL tackles and they're gonna bull rush right over the top of him.

Just my opinion, at least.

cuervo's picture

You're probably correct, but that's why he's a 5th round pick. If anyone thinks their 5th rounders are expected to come in and start from day 1, they're nuts. Every now and then you get lucky, but those are the rare exceptions.

If he ends up "redshrting" as you suggest and in 2 years is starting for us, that's a great pick.....got to look at the long view.

wildpalms's picture

Excellent article and clips ! Well thought out and presented. Look forward to more from A.H.

Bure9620's picture

WRs 53 predictions
Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, J'Mon Moore, Equinemious St. Brown, MVS and Allison

PS after waivers, Yancey, Clark

Cut: Davis, Kumero, Pearson,

Corners
King, Tramon, Alexander, Jackson, House, Pipkins

Cut: Rollins, Brown, Hawkins, Waters, Goodson

Safetys
HHCD, Jones, Brice, Evans,

Cut: Whitehead

Tundraboy's picture

I'm good with that.

croatpackfan's picture

Before any cuts, I would like to see what happens during TC. Just to be sure I do not cut the wrong player(s)...

AGM - Armchair GMs...

Tundraboy's picture

I'd also like to see an addition or two before camp.

Fountaintown's picture

I gaurantee they keep more than 3 safeties

MITM's picture

Another grear article much appreciated.

Just to add, I remember last college FB season watching the Syracuse upset over Clemson. In that game there was a MONSTER hit by a Syracuse LB on a Clemson receiver. As fate would have it we picked up said Syrcause LB Parris Bennett.

https://youtu.be/cQfv6rpqx4A

Hopefully this link works, if it does you can check it out around the 6:30 mark.

Lphill's picture

The culture of the past was to hope a bunch of late round picks and un drafted players were going to play a big role for the Packers and without any splashy free agents mixed in, let's hope those days are over .

The TKstinator's picture

Hopes vs expectations

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