Finding the Right Unicorns in Free Agency

Finding the right unicorns in free agency.

The perfect free agent is a player who is still young, is a proven performer with no injury history or character concerns, and who is not overpriced.  Good luck finding many of those unicorns in free agency.  

The combine opens up next week, so soon we will be talking about who performed well there and how the combine changes perceptions of these players.  The Packers will have plenty of people at the combine to observe and finalize their draft board.

What is undeniable is that free agency starts before the draft.  While General Manager Gutekunst won't know which players will be available when he is on the clock at the draft, or whether he will be able to move up or down in any particular round, he should know the positions of strength and depth in the draft.  

That knowledge should be pondered when Gutekunst is considering which players to add in free agency.  The upcoming draft reportedly should provide both depth and some strength in defensive linemen, outside linebackers, tight ends, and safeties. 

Normally I would suggest that the Packers should shy away from signing players in free agency who play positions that the draft has an abundance of talented players.  However, the positions that the Packers need to upgrade often need an infusion of multiple players.  Let's look at my free agent wish list, with projected AAV, first-year cap number, and possible targets noted:

POS AAV Cap # Targets - in order of preference
FS 11.0 8.0 Thomas, Boston, Amos, Harris (RFA)
SS 1.0 1.0 I. Campbell, Burnett, Vacarro. Collins
OLB 11.0 8.0 P. Smith, Houston, Ford, Barr,  
RG 7.5 6.0 Saffold, JaWaun James, Spain, Carpenter
WR 10.0 6.0 Ty Williams, Beasley, Crowder, Humphries
WR 2.0 2.0 Allison
CB 8.0 5.6 Breeland
TE 3.5 2.0 Maxx Williams, Nick Boyle, J. James, Cook

That adds up to $54.5 million AAV and more importantly $38.6 million in first-year cap space.  Some of the alternative targets would cost more and some less than shown in the table.  I certainly would make a strong offer for Dee Ford if he gets released even though he might cost $17 million AAV and $11 million for a first-year cap hit.

Unfortunately, OTC is currently estimating that the Packers will have cap space of $35.2 million (including a $7.8 million rollover), and space is also needed to sign the draft class.  Ignore the draft pool number you might see assigned to the Packers: signing the draft class as currently constituted should cost roughly $5 million.

It is also likely that Gutekunst will save some cap space to roll over into 2020.  Since the uncapped year, the Packers have rolled over into the next year an average of $7.33 million, and the Packers are projected to roll over $7.8 million into 2019.  Gutekunst has not been the general manager long enough to have a real track record, but so far he has been consistent with the team's long-term trend.  I am going to assume he will aim to roll over $7 million into the 2020 season.

If the $35.2 million cap space estimate for the Packers is correct, then after deducting $5 million for the draft class and $7 million for a rollover, that leaves $23 million in first-year cap space to spend on free agents.  That is not enough for Thomas, Saffold, Breeland, Allison, one of the outside linebackers and Campbell as those players add up to more than $30 million.  The team can generate more cap space. 

Cut June Player
5.33 9.0 Graham - already thin at TE
3.337 10.737 Perry - thin at OLB
4.75 N-A Tramon Williams - thin at safety
3.6 N-A Crosby - do I want to find out?
2.1 N-A A. Morrison - one down player?
3.75 Convert Bakhtiari - convert base to bonus
1.65 Convert C Linsley - convert base to bonus

I think Campbell and Allison provide good production given their presumed $3 million combined cost.  I thought Wilkerson was competent, but since the draft is deep in defensive linemen, I would pass on Wilkerson (unless he would sign more cheaply than I think he will, perhaps $2 million or less). 

The draft also appears to have good depth at the tight end position so, despite LaFleur's predilection for two tight end sets, while I would still inquire about the tight ends, that would be lower on my priority list.  The team needs a third running back, but Jones and Williams are pretty good and running backs can get on the field more quickly than players at other positions.  I did not even put that position on my free agent wish list.  The Packers probably will settle for drafting a running back on day three or acquiring a UDFA.

For the rest, it depends on which players actually reach free agency and are willing to sign for a number that the Packers are comfortable with.  I am down to having just $20 million in first-year cap space after keeping Allison and Campbell, but I think acquiring three above average starting players in free agency would do wonders for this team.  I prefer them to be at outside linebacker, free safety, and right guard, which leaves Breeland out in the cold absent generating more cap space.

I do recommend wringing additional cap space out of Perry, either by a straight release, a June designation, or a pay cut.  There is a narrative that Seattle and McCarthy both misused Graham, which I find hard to accept.  It is possible that in year two the connection between Rodgers and Graham will improve, but watching Graham run, I do not expect it to become super-conductive any time soon.  I think I would admit the mistake and try to sign one of the free agent tight ends for Graham's cap savings or less, which might depend on whether I am negotiating with Jess James or Jared Cook, who both might cost more than $5 million.  I would not overpay for those two.  I would be fine with a blocking type like Boyle or Williams.  If the Packers can enter a season with Richard Rodgers as the #1 tight end, why not Williams, Tonyan and a draft pick? 

If the Packers whiff on acquiring a single-high free safety, then I think Tramon Williams has to stay in Green Bay. If Breeland prices himself out of the team's range, would Alexander, King, and Jackson (and Brown) be enough at cornerback?  If either event occurred, Williams would be a pricey but useful player to have as cornerback and safety depth.  If it came down to Breeland or Williams, I would go with Breeland. 

I complain about Crosby, but I am not sure that I want to see what a rookie kicker looks like.  I also can't see retaining Morrison at $2 million though he is very good at the one thing he does do.

Using a June designation on Perry and/or Graham does present issues because the cap space would not accrue to the Packers until June 2.  The Packers could reach a handshake deal with Breeland or less likely the other free agents but not make the signing(s) official until June.  The team could wait to sign its draft class until June.  The Packers could release Bibbs, Vitale and Trevor Davis to generate enough cap savings to sign all six of its day-three draft picks and probably the third-rounder as well.

It seems most likely that the Packers will have somewhere between $23 million and $33 million in first-year cap space to spend on free agency. How should they use it?     

          

          

      

 

 

 

        

 

  

 

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8 points
 

Comments (30)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
CheesyTex's picture

February 23, 2019 at 03:29 pm

Boston
Campbell, Vacarro and Collins (dump Pleasant)
Barr
Allison
Boyle

Collectively less than 20M Cap used; Keep the rest of Cap for flexibility.

Would also try to trade Graham with a 4th round pick to any taker (to free up cap space, maybe even an additional sweetener to make the deal). (For all Jimmy's fans -- I believe him when he said he sucked).

-2 points
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Doug Niemczynski's picture

February 24, 2019 at 06:02 pm

Can you help build the wall?

0 points
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carlos's picture

February 24, 2019 at 07:07 pm

I don’t think anyone would pick Graham up Cheesy. Not productive any more. Unless he was hurt. Can’t run or block that well anymore. Not saying he was ever a good blocker. Just saying. It would be nice to trade him and get something. Even a 7 th.

0 points
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Jonathan Spader's picture

February 24, 2019 at 07:14 pm

The Saints were competing with the Packers for Graham's services in 2018. Wouldn't be surprised with how terrible their TE core is if they still wanted Graham's services. If we could get a draft pick for Graham and get his cap hit off the Packers books I'd be thrilled. If not I hope Graham has a good 2019 for the Packers.

1 points
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CoachJV's picture

February 23, 2019 at 03:56 pm

I think you offer Breeland $7M...
We keep I. Campbell for $1.5M...
Spend $10.5 - $11M on a good Edge rusher... (hopefully Ford will be available)
Sign a good OG and Safety for $7M each...

Draft the rest...

-2 points
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Rak43's picture

February 23, 2019 at 10:10 pm

Sign Breeland, and make a play for P. Smith, A. Barr, Shaq Barrett, Z. Smith, and or Markus Golden. I think if Gute can come away with two of those guys it would help the pass rush tremendously. Adding a FS like Thomas would be the icing on the cake, affording Gute much more flexibility with his picks come draft day. I'd like to see them add two veterans on the edge and another rookie in the draft that can come in and contribute situationally and not have to be depended on to come in and start right away.

4 points
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Rak43's picture

February 23, 2019 at 10:44 pm

I don't want Ford. The man finally had his breakout year in year 5 at the age of 28 in a contract year. Too many times I've seen guys have breakout years in contract years only to flop once they sign that big deal. I'll pass, I'd rather have a younger guy who's been solid for more than one year. Ford sounds like Nick Perry part two, to me. I also wonder how many of Fords sacks were do to having a 6'6 320lb defensive end playing opposite of him that had 15.5 sacks of his own in a breakout year of his own for Chris Jones.

9 points
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NickPerry's picture

February 24, 2019 at 04:36 am

LOL...Exactly what I was thinking. Ford has stayed healthy but not as productive as I thought he would have coming out except last year....No Thanks on Nick Perry 2.0

2 points
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Ryan3468's picture

February 24, 2019 at 02:06 pm

Thanks Nick Perry!

0 points
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carlos's picture

February 24, 2019 at 07:10 pm

Preston Smith.

1 points
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CoachJV's picture

February 24, 2019 at 09:45 pm

Yeah... I like Smith too

0 points
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jww061356's picture

February 23, 2019 at 04:44 pm

Breeland, EDGE(Smith from Baltimore?) a Safety, and a guard. Draft the rest, and FORGET ABOUT BELL OR BROWN. Go EDGE, TE, Safety, OL and slot receiver in the draft. Keep Allison. Opening Day receiving corp- TE Fant, Smith or Hockenson, Kumerow, Allison, Adams, MVS, Brown, and a rookie(Isabella?) and possibly Moore.

3 points
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Lare's picture

February 23, 2019 at 06:13 pm

The real variable in free agency this year is what the teams with tons of available cap space are going to do. There are seven teams with at least twice the available cap space as Green Bay and two with three times that amount. If any of these teams go after a player that Green Bay wants they simply can't compete.

How free agency plays out will dictate what the Packers can do and how they'll need to compensate in the draft. The combine next week will help to separate the winners and the losers in the underwear olympics. After that, most of the Packers FA options will shake out after March 13th.

6 points
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ShooterMcGee's picture

February 23, 2019 at 08:09 pm

Least expensive positions in FA are safety and guard. We could sign 1 each in the 3-5 million range. Thus we eliminate that need from the early rounds of the draft. Then we can take 2 edge rushers, TE/WR and DL in the 1st 3 rounds with later rounds focused on depth at other positions. Sign some of our own such as Breeland and Allison while letting go of Cobb and Matthews.

6 points
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Leatherhead's picture

February 24, 2019 at 08:46 am

I'd sign two each. We need starters and backups at safety, we need one starter at guard and one quality backup.

Breeland is not going to be resigned by the Packers, IMO. With us, he's a third corner and we're not going to pay him like a starter.

-1 points
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PeteK's picture

February 24, 2019 at 10:12 am

I'm not giving Breeland more than 5 mill guaranteed. He's a nickel back because Tramon is better and that's about what he got.

0 points
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Packer_Fan's picture

February 23, 2019 at 08:18 pm

You missed cutting Cobb. Also cut Perry as his salary gets worse next year. Best just to get rid of him.
- OLB $10=$12 mil
- Safety $6-$8 mil
- Guard $6-8 mil
- Humphries $8-$10 mil

BG has to figure out how to get one big name and then good vets for the balance. Lafluer has to figure out how to get some big steps this year on the young players. That has been absent the past few years. Like sign Breeland and somehow get Brown, Jackson or Jones to take a jump.

-1 points
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Leatherhead's picture

February 24, 2019 at 08:44 am

You cannot replace Perry for the $3 million you save by cutting him.

And we don't have to cut Cobb because he's already a free agent.

2 points
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ShooterMcGee's picture

February 23, 2019 at 09:01 pm

I think we should also consider compensatory picks in the evaluation of any free agents. BG may consider this since he mentored under TT and more draft picks is always better. How many unrestricted free agents could we lose? Breeland, Ryan, Matthews, Cobb, any others? What players do not figure in the compensatory calculations such as cut players? These players may be much more attractive to Gutey for this reason.

2 points
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Bert's picture

February 23, 2019 at 09:53 pm

I'm kinda hoping that Gute has already forgotten much of what he learned during his mentorship under TT. More draft picks is only better if you are good at scouting and drafting.

1 points
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Jonathan Spader's picture

February 23, 2019 at 11:27 pm

TT was good at scouting that's why he found hidden gems in the later rounds and UDFAs. The drawback to TT is he hardly ever supplemented his roster with FAs. Gute has shown a willingness to add FAs. Rodgers sitting behind Farve learned toughness and how to avoid throwing interceptions.

0 points
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ShooterMcGee's picture

February 24, 2019 at 12:27 am

I agree the roster should be improved with free agents unlike under TT. That being said smart GMs surely will consider comp pick into their decisions. I have noticed some teams sign players to 1 year deals then get comp picks when they are signed away. This could be the case with Breeland, Wilkerson, and Campbell. I did read we have 11 UFA. While not all will be signed by other teams if we lose more than we gain thats a plus.

-1 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

February 24, 2019 at 05:11 am

I would argue TT was good at scouting.

Honestly I think several here could have done just as well

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Leatherhead's picture

February 24, 2019 at 08:43 am

No, we couldn't have done just as well. That's a delusion. It's like me thinking I could do Cesar Milan's job just because I'm good with dogs.

He was a former NFL player and worked his way up through the scouting chain to become a GM. None of us are even close to having his chops.

-1 points
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Leatherhead's picture

February 24, 2019 at 08:41 am

Yes, but by not supplementing with FAs he achieved two important things:

1) He didn't make any costly FA mistakes.
2) We got comp picks, and some of those comp picks turned into good players for us.

If you play with fire, you will eventually get burned. IF you play the FA game, you're going to get burned too. Thompson got some good guys in FA, like Woodson and Picket, didn't get burned with a bad deal, and got comp picks. It was a strategy that put us in the Championship game 4 times in 10 years.

0 points
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Barnacle's picture

February 24, 2019 at 11:46 am

Also, remember we got into those championship games with an incompetent HC. Thompson was not our problem.

0 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 24, 2019 at 12:51 am

Ryan isn't worth much money. Vet min. won't get you a comp picks most years. Cobb, CM3 and Breeland look like 5ths to me at most. If we were to sign Boston, Saffold, and WR - say Crowder, they'll likely cancel out and we get no comp picks.

It is a hard sell to tell fans we're not going to sign a FA for 2019 because we want to draft a 5th round rookie in 2020 who most likely (but not always - see Linsley) won't contribute much until 2021.

5 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 24, 2019 at 01:57 am

FS: Thomas might like Dallas. Boston is in play but might like his current coach. He'd be cheaper. I watched some extra Bears games, but due to their ferocious pass rush, they played two safeties deep a lot. I couldn't tell if Amos can play single high. Harris is an RFA and arguably a one-year wonder. MN has at least some cap issues, and Gute isn't afraid to write an offer sheet. I did see Harris play single high. Looked okay doing it. I'm guessing MN uses a 2nd round tender on Harris.

RG: LAR has $24M in cap space and has FAs Suh, Joyner, Saffold and Fowler. Someone might be able to pry Saffold away: it depends on LAR's priorities and how much Saffold values a ring. JaWaun James is an OT - this envisions Bulaga moving to RG. OTs aren't cheap. Perhaps GB ends up with a Spain, Levitre, Carpenter type.

I think we'd be doing well to sign Earl Thomas and Campbell to infuse talent at the safety spot, someone who can play RG, bring back Allison cheap. We still should draft a safety but it doesn't have to be Adderly, it can be a 3rd or 4th rounder at SS or FS. Gute should take a run at one of the OLBs, rollover be damned, and we still draft one in the first round.

I've got Wilkerson and Breeland out in the cold. If Gute likes the OGs or even the OTs and is contemplating using #44 (maybe even #75) on an OL (OT or OG), I could see foregoing a FA RG. Saffold is the only one that would be a average or plus starter. I'd be okay with a rookie RT and Bulaga at RG, or Ford, Cajuste, perhaps a rookie RG taken in the 3rd.

If we get Thomas/Boston, tough to keep Williams over Breeland. Good FA CBs are scarce this year, so I am concerned about Breeland's FMV.

2 points
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Monsmoy's picture

February 24, 2019 at 03:17 am

Sign Breeland and Campbell. Let's get continuity at the back. Add Adrian Amos (and Boston if poss) who can be a significant player for years to come. Amos and Boston probably less $ than Earl Thomas. If you can the draft Gardner-Johnson, a utility DB, at 44 our DB Corp is set and strong with the required depth.
We can draft a OLB later than people think as this class is deep and after Josh Allen I am not sure there are 1st round talents that fit with us naturally. Therefore, I would target aggressively, Shaq Barrett. He has been in the shadows and is prime to make a name for himself. Recognising we can get proper OLBs
after round 1 allows us to focus on a RG and RT early in the draft. Bring in Spain would be a great security blanket but I think every Packers fan has to acknowledge with AR12 getting older, that we need to protect him properly. I would draft Williams, Ford or Risner 1st (pending combine results)

4 points
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Cartwright's picture

February 24, 2019 at 05:35 am

In free agency you get the guy who can have the biggest impact on your team. On offense we who the man is, on defense who is that guy, Clay was the man but he is a Clay maker no more, of all the FA's out there the one that stands out like that is Earl Thomas. We lost out on Khalil Mack, thinking Gute may make a run for Earl and pry him away from the 'boys so long as his broke leg isn't so broke. For the other FA's I can see waiting and see what shakes out. We lost out on Khalil Mack, who would have been a difference maker, should we let Earl Thomas pass by too? At the safety position he's in the same class.
Aaron's window is closing fast, can't just wait on draft picks to develop. Gute's needs to take some chances here, spend the money and strike while the iron is hot.

-1 points
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