Grading the Pack - Week 10 (Offense)

Green Bay went into Chicago in desperate need of a win and in dire need of finding some rhythm on offense. Green Bay got the win and as the game progressed they began to find more and more rhythm on offense. That rhythm was the direct result of Brett Hundley starting to gain comfort in the offense and in the pocket.

Make no mistake about it, this offense is going to go as Brett Hundley goes the rest of the way. We’ve started to see some creativity with the Wildcat and we’ve seen a transition to a quick/short passing game but if Green Bay wants to find sustained success on offense, it needs Brett Hundley to be better in the intermediate to deep passing game. For the first time in his young career, we saw flashes of that ability on Sunday.

While the offense will go as Hundley goes, it’s paramount that the rest of the offense performs at a high level in order to put the young signal caller in favorable positions. Davante Adams, David Bakhtiari and the trio of running backs were particularly strong in this game. Its performances like theirs that will allow Hundley to have time, be in favorable down in distances and find open targets.

Lastly, I want to speak briefly on Justin McCray. McCray is quite heavily my lowest graded player this year. That being said he deserves a ton of credit for his versatility and his effort throughout this season. He’s played all along the offensive line and he’s really put in a solid effort game in and game out. It’s easy to forget that McCray wasn’t expected to make it out of camp and even when he made the roster he was a back of the roster developmental guard at best. To be thrust into a starting tackle position and never gain any semblance of routine is an incredibly tough ask for a young guard. Yes his grade is poor but he’s battled, stayed confident, and has never shied away from the moment. He deserves a ton of credit despite the low grade.

Top 3 Performers

David Bakhtiari +1.55
Jamaal Williams +1.20
Davante Adams +1.05

Bottom 3 Performers

Justin McCray -1.70
Richard Rodgers -0.65
Jordy Nelson -0.45

Quarterback

Brett Hundley +0.65

We saw Hundley scramble, throw an Aaron Rodgers-esque touchdown to Davante Adams, and later find Adams on a go-route to basically seal the game. We’re starting to see signs of what he could be capable of. It’s not easy to thrust an un-tested quarterback into an offense midway through the season but Green Bay is trying their best to make it work. If Hundley can gain a bit more consistency and keep his eyes down field a little longer, he could continue to progress into a solid quarterback.

Running Back

Jamaal Williams +1.2
Ty Montgomery +0.95
Aaron Jones +0.25
Aaron Ripkowski +0.2

This was a really strong performance by all three young running backs. Montgomery looked the most explosive, Jones looked the shiftiest, and Williams looked the most powerful. I really haven’t been a fan of Williams’ vision or patience but there’s no denying that he runs hard and unafraid. He could be an ideal late game back and could be a prime example of a running back who gets stronger as the game goes on. All three running backs have had solid performances this year and can now be trusted to carry the load as needed going forward.

More on Williams from Zach: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/like-aaron-jones-did-jamaal-williams-answers-the-call-130

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams +1.05
Geronimo Allison +0.1
Jeff Janis +0.0
Randall Cobb -0.1
Trevor Davis -0.2
Jordy Nelson -0.45

There wasn’t a ton of flash or productivity out of the receiving corps in this game but Davante Adams came up big when needed. His release on the touchdown on a scramble drill was perfect and his ability to get deep late in the game was the nail in Chicago’s coffin. Adams has been Green Bay’s best receiver this year and will put Ted Thompson in a tough position this offseason.

Tight End

Lance Kendricks +0.35
Richard Rodgers -0.65

Kendricks was on the receiving end of some additional playing time and he rewarded the coaching staff with one of his stronger performances of the year. This was the best I’ve seen Kendricks block during his time in Green Bay and he held up multiple times against Bears edge rushers including Leonard Floyd.

Offensive Line

David Bakhtiari +1.55
Lane Taylor +0.5
Corey Linsley +0.0
Jahri Evans +0.0
Justin McCray -1.7

Brett Hundley has one thing that Aaron Rodgers didn’t this year—a healthy David Bakhtiari. Bakhtiari has been a machine since coming back from injury and has done a wonderful job protecting Hundley’s blind side. The line didn’t have one of their best performances of the year but it was solid. Akiem Hicks gives just about every offensive linemen troubles and Green Bay was no different. Overall the line gave Hundley enough time to find his receivers and opened just enough space for the running backs to thrive.

To find an updated, running total of the grades throughout the season, click here: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/grading-the-pack-regular-season-totals-454

How I Grade

  • Each player starts by getting a zero or neutral grade on a play. If they performed as expected on a play, their grade stays at zero.
  • For a slightly above or below average play, the player gets graded -0.1 or +0.1. The vast majority of grades on the vast majority of plays are graded -0.1, 0, or +0.1.
  • The highest and lowest grades on an individual play are +2.0 and -2.0 respectively. These would be large, game-changing plays.
  • I won’t grade a play negatively if I cannot tell which player was at fault.
  • Most of the time it’s impossible to tell the play, so I’m not grading on the execution of the play call as an NFL coach would.
  • The goal of this exercise is to grade every snap over the course of the season to get a long-term view of which performers are performing well and which are not meeting expectations. This is very similar to what Pro Football Focus tries to achieve. Is it perfect? No. But what you are getting is a consistent grader who is watching specifically Packer games and putting multiple hours into every week to breakdown film and assign grades.
  • Grades are for offense and defense only (including two point conversions). Special teams does not factor in.
  • Preseason does not have All-22 film which makes this exercise even more challenging than usual
  • Bigger plays in the game such as a 4th and 1 or a two-point conversion are weighted higher than say a normal 1st and 10 play to start the game.
  • Lastly, the grades do not necessarily reflect who the best players are on an overall basis. As an example, Morgan Burnett may grade almost two full points below Jermaine Whitehead. Does this mean that Whitehead is the superior player to Burnett? No. It means that given the opportunities each player was given, Whitehead performed at a higher level for this individual game.

Please feel free to ask questions or comment below!

__________________________

Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. You can find him on WFRV's Green Bay Nation and every Friday on the Friday Film Room on WDUZ . Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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Comments (9)

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Packer_Fan's picture

November 16, 2017 at 05:44 pm

The things you are calling out is what the Packers needs. Beating your man on pass route. Making one handed catches. Getting in the way of a defense player to get the receiver open. Gritting out a first down when the blocking fails. Making good reads and passes. If this continues then they have a chance to win some games. Defense probably have the same things to too.

Keep going Pack. Also, I wish there is more of this analysis. Better than opinions. A measure of how the team us progressing

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Turophile's picture

November 16, 2017 at 06:42 pm

Absolutely. Analysis beats 'gut instinct' every time, because sometimes your gut 'knows things' that just aren't true.

This week by week focus also shows much more clearly the ebb and flow of how players are doing. Over time it might even be able to pinpoint undisclosed injuries.

This series does not get a huge number of comments each week, but I bet if CTV have a way to count the 'reads', it is very well liked.

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4zone's picture

November 16, 2017 at 05:51 pm

The kid needs a few lessons on how to slide.

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Denver's picture

November 16, 2017 at 09:21 pm

#12 will hopefully teach him a thing or two since he is very good at it...looks like a guy sliding into 2nd base with the 'pop up' sometimes.

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GBPDAN1's picture

November 16, 2017 at 07:57 pm

Nice to see all of the running backs with positive grades.

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J0hn Denver's Gavel's picture

November 16, 2017 at 09:08 pm

If the o line can play at this level or even better, good things are bound to happen for the offense. Props on McCarthy for truly developing a run to pass mentality with Hundley out there running the O. That run game of theirs is freezing the lbs and bringing the ss into the box. All good signs for a better passing attack in the weeks to come. GPG. Love this series, keep up the great work.

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croatpackfan's picture

November 17, 2017 at 09:05 am

Andrew this is my favorite articles. There is no "experts" here who can argue with data you publish. It is objective as it can be...

Love it!

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AndyHerman's picture

November 17, 2017 at 11:50 am

Thank you, Croat, and everyone for the kind comments. I greatly appreciate it!

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

November 17, 2017 at 07:14 am

Let's talk about this when we play the Steelers !!! Not the bears. .

And another thing. ..the freaking steelers have been running their 3_4 def since 1982 and it seems like their def id always better than ours. .what the frik is up with that? ??

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