It’s been a brutal stretch for the Packers ever since halftime of the Denver game.

The team is now 0-4 in its last four contests, with a whole bunch of injuries added on to the pile. The team is entering the playoffs with absolutely no momentum for the second season in a row–even less this year than last.

I was curious about a history of teams that ended the season on 0-4 or worse stretches but still made the playoffs, and I could only find three examples:

• The 1986 New York Jets finished the season with FIVE consecutive losses and end their season 10-6. They actually ended up winning in the wild card round against the Chiefs, but then lost in double overtime in the divisional round against the Jets.
• The 1999 Detroit Lions lost their final four games to finish 8-8, then got immediately bounced in the wild card round by Washington.
• The 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers lost their final four games to finish 10-7, then got immediately bounced in the wild card round by Baltimore.

So as you can see, history isn’t particularly kind  to teams in the Packers’ situation. Yes, there are some slight differences between this edition of the Packers and those teams, but there also isn’t a very large sample size of teams that lost four straight games to close the season and still made the playoffs. 

So with the Packers skidding back into Soldier Field, what are some realistic expectations for this team?

Well, on the bright side, this is the most wide open either conference has been in years. There are not any dominant teams in the NFL, and especially in the AFC, many of the traditional contenders are noticeably absent from the tournament.

In the NFC, the defending champions are still there, but nobody is fearing them. The Rams were seen as a possible juggernaut at one point in the season, but have struggled of late. The Bears have lost three of their last five, including two straight, and the Packers have no reason at all to fear them based on their two matchups this season. These teams are evenly matched with perhaps even a slight edge to Green Bay. The 49ers are a dark horse and could surprise people. The Seahawks have an outstanding defense and capable offense; people will continue to doubt them simply because of Sam Darnold, but it’s time to recognize that Darnold has played at a very high level for back to back seasons on two different 14-win teams.

So, realistically, I think the Packers are capable of pushing deeper into the postseason. They have a favorable draw in the first game with a team they already know they can beat (they did so once already, and should have done so a second time). On any given Sunday, even without Micah Parsons, I see no reason why they couldn’t surprise some of the other teams seeded ahead of them.

Of course, the odds are against a deep run or a title push, but anything can happen in January, especially after you get out of that wild card round. 

In this way, the Packers probably have the most favorable position of any of those four-straight loss teams that have previously made the playoffs. Which, of course, is not exactly saying much. But it’s something to consider, anyway.

Does momentum matter? Heck yeah it does. Let’s not discount that. There’s a sort of innate belief that builds up within a person and a team when it’s made a habit of achieving at a high level. But let’s also not discount the variance that exists in professional football and the ability of these high-end athletes to turn it on when needed.

Here’s to the Packers doing exactly that on Saturday evening in Chicago.

Wisconsin Beer of the Week

Wisconsin residents and many beyond know New Glarus Brewing Company to be the brewery that makes SPotted Cow, but there are a whole lot of other offerings from the brewery that are equally good or better. One of my favorite things the brewery does is its Thumbprint series, which are its high-quality, slightly more limited release beers or beers that are a bit more difficult to brew.

One of these is Framboise, and I picked up the 2025 edition from Woodman’s this past weekend. And hoo boy is it yummy.

This limited-release Belgian-style fruit beer features sour ales blended with fresh raspberries. It’s a great beer for over the holidays especially, but it tastes good at any time of year. Usually it’s released in the late fall and early winter specifically for the holidays.

The beer rates very highly on Untappd; it’s sweet and flavorful without being overwhelming or having that sickly sweet feel. At just four percent ABV you don’t have to worry about it overpowering you, and there’s no bitterness at all. 

Of your various fruited sours, this is definitely of the more traditional variety. Highly recommend, especially if you like beers like New Glarus’s Raspberry Tart or Wisconsin Belgian Red. 

Matchups to watch against the Bears

It’s only fitting that the Packers will have to win a rubber match with the Bears to extend their season. The two games the team has played have been very different; the pre-Parsons and post-Parsons eras may as well be two different seasons. And yet in both games, the Packers handled the Bears from start to… well, almost finish, in the case of the second.

Here’s where the Packers are going to have to succeed to be able to win this game:

• Packers defensive front versus Bears offensive line: Rashan Gary simply has to be better. He’s been invisible in the absence of Parsons and has likely played himself out of Green Bay. But he’s still on the team at the moment, and still being paid to be an elite pass rusher. He must have a strong game, and the other big bodies along the line need to hold their own and avoid getting pushed around; otherwise, the Bears could easily control the clock with their running game.
• Packers’ cornerbacks in coverage: It’s been rough going for Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine since the Packers’ pass rush evaporated. The presence of Micah Parsons was masking just how overmatched these corners are. They’re going to need to be able to play solid defense even if the pass rush doesn’t get home. 
• Christian Watson versus the Bears’ secondary: All of the Packers’ pass catchers are important, but none more so than Christian Watson. He is the team’s biggest matchup nightmare (especially in the absence of Tucker Kraft), and could cement himself as a true number one receiver with a dominant postseason performance. He is capable of having an excellent game against this Bears secondary.
• Packers’ offensive line versus Bears’ defensive front in the run game: The Packers need to be able to control the clock themselves, and have had a tough time getting the ground game going of late. The offensive line had a couple rough outings, and need to be able to get some push in the run game to make the Packers’ offense multi-dimensional.

This is a game the Packers can win, but it’s going to be a tight one. Critical matchups like these will be the difference maker.

Expect LaFleur and Gutekunst to both be back

If you didn’t see Justis Mosqueda’s excellent analysis of the Packers’ coaching and GM situation and the decision Ed Policy is likely to make this offseason, do yourself a favor and check it out. 

Justis agrees with the reporting of Adam Schefter that it is likely that Policy will extend both Gutekunst and LaFleur this offseason. The details of that extension, of course, are going to be very interesting to see; how long will the extension be? Will we get any of the details about compensation amounts? Remember that coaching salaries frequently are not made public, at least not immediately.

Justis’s article goes into detail about some of the decisions the Packers have made with coaching in the past, largely due to a need to remain fiscally conservative with that pool of money. For this reason, he says, an extension of LaFleur could be less about belief in LaFleur’s ability to lead the team to a title than it could be about financial implications. See the article for more.

Ultimately, I have been saying all season that one of two things will happen this offseason: Policy will either fire or extend both LaFleur and Gutekunst. Their contracts expire after the 26-27 season, and teams almost never allow coaches or GMs to go into a season as lame ducks (see what happened with Mike McCarthy in Dallas as one recent example of this rarity occurring and why teams would rather avoid it). As long as the Packers made the playoffs, it was always far more likely they would both be extended.

Anything short of a three-year extension, though, would raise my eyebrows. It would be a less-than-full-throated endorsement of LaFleur and Gutekunst as the leaders of this team into the future, and an indication that perhaps Policy does have both men on a bit of a short leash.

Around the NFC North

As always, it’s time to go around the NFC North. 

• The CHICAGO BEARS ended up losing their last two games, exactly as I predicted they would when I said the Packers would still win the division after losing to this team. Unfortunately, the Packers decided to not show up to play against Baltimore, which ended their hopes and resulted in a meaningless week 18 contest. The Bears are 2-3 in their last five games taking on a Packers team that is 1-4 in their last five games this weekend. A real barn burner. But the postseason results in extra juice, and given what we’ve already seen in the teams’ first two matchups, that could make for a particularly spicy affair. While the intensity certainly cannot match an NFC Championship contest between these two teams, it’s most definitely going to be quite the atmosphere for this one.

• The DETROIT LIONS end the season on the outside of the playoffs, but at least managed to take a final parting shot at the Bears before doing so. As it turns out, losing both coordinators in a single offseason is a large hurdle to overcome, and that’s before considering Detroit’s offensive line ineptitude. There was a significant brain drain this past year, more than Dan Campbell and this team were able to overcome. It will be extremely interesting to see whether the Lions are able to return to the upper echelon of the conference in 2026 or if who they were this year is much closer to what their true identity will be moving forward.

• The MINNESOTA VIKINGS beat the Packers’ JV squad to end the season with a winning record, marking just the second time since realignment that there has been a division where all four teams had a winning record. The fact that this team was able to win as many games as it did with a quarterback situation this terrible is a testament to head coach Kevin O’Connell. However, it’s only going to get harder for Minnesota moving forward. Not only do they not have a quarterback, but their financial situation is awful and they’re also rapidly aging. With how much this team’s starters struggled against the Packers’ third string early on in the contest, things could get pretty rough for the Vikings in the near future. 

Mr. Backes’s “This or That”

Every day I put a different “this or that” poll up on my whiteboard and have students leave tallies throughout the day. I then compile this information and post it here for laughs. However, this week we’re out all week (and next) on Winter Break. There are only a few updates since we just got back from Winter Break:

• Driving in rain defeated driving in snow
• A relaxing winter break defeated a busy winter break
• Stranger Things defeated Euphoria

Wild Card Weekend

Look, as bad as it’s been for the Packers over the last four weeks, you’re out of your skull if you think I’m ever picking the Bears to beat the Packers. Not only that, but I genuinely think this Packer team is better. They’ve handled the Bears for about seven and a half quarters of football this season. They’ll do it again.

Packers 27, Bears 23

THE REST:

RAMS over Panthers
PACKERS over Bears

JAGUARS over Bills

49ERS over Eagles

PATRIOTS over Chargers

TEXANS over Steelers

Setting up the following divisional round matchups:

Packers at Seahawks

Rams at 49ers

Jaguars at Patriots

Texans at Broncos