How much can the Packers get if they trade Jordan Love

Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

 
When back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers decided to come back to Green Bay and the parties agreed to a four-year extension, it became obvious that he will be the Packers starting quarterback for the near future. And then, the next question is what will the Packers do with developmental QB Jordan Love, who was selected with a 1st-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
 
First, the Packers are not obliged to trade Love. We still haven't seen the exact structure of Rodgers new contract, so it's premature to assure Rodgers has strong guarantees that can't be moved beyond 2022. And, even if he has, general manager Brian Gutekunst might rather keep Love as a backup option and potential future starter if there isn't a good enough trade offer. Love has two years left in his rookie contract, and now it's fair to assume his fifth-year option won't be exercised next offseason.
 
But, considering the Packers probably will have an all-in approach to give Rodgers the best chance to win, a solid offer could entice Gutekunst to move Love and use the extra draft capital or some player to help the current roster.
 
Jim Nagy, Senior Bowl's Executive Director, tweeted that scouts around the NFL think the Packers could get a 2nd-round pick in return for Love. So, let's analyze some previous trades in order to understand how the market works. To use a fair parameter, I included here only recent trades, because deals made before 2011 were agreed in an era where there weren't rookie-scale cheap deals. Also, I cited deals with quarterbacks still on rookie contracts, because expensive contracts alter the value and the perspective of the trades.
 
Jimmy Garoppolo
Patriots received: 2018 2nd-round pick
The Patriots had a similar approach to its veteran quarterback in 2014 as the Packers had in 2020. Tom Brady was 37, and Bill Belichick decided to draft Jimmy Garoppolo with a second-round pick - the highest pick used to get a quarterback by the Patriots since Drew Bledsoe. Brady, though, kept playing at a high level. So, three and a half years later, New England was forced to trade Garoppolo in order to recoup some draft capital before the young QB hit free agency.
There wasn't much room for negotiation. According to reports from 2017, Belichick called the San Francisco 49ers and offered the QB for a second-round pick. The deal was made. Maybe, the Patriots could have gotten more draft capital if they were willing to create a bid war with the Cleveland Browns. Like Jordan Love, Garoppolo had little playing time (two starts, during Brady's suspension), but he played better than Love when given the chance.
 
DeShone Kizer
Browns sent: Kizer, 2018 higher 4th and 5th-round picks
Browns received: Damarious Randall, 2018 lower 4th and 5th-round picks
You might remember this one, because it was made with the Green Bay Packers (the first trade agreed by Gutekunst as general manager). Kizer was drafted by the Browns in the 2017 second-round. After a promising preseason, he played poorly and the Browns lost every game during the season. So, with the Browns inclined to select Baker Mayfield with the 2018 first overall pick, the Browns sent Kizer plus a swap of late-round picks to the Packers for Damarious Randall.
 
Brett Hundley
Packers received: 2018 6th-round pick
With Kizer as the new backup, the Packers traded their previous backup. Brett Hundley, who had been drafted in the 2015 fifth round and had played badly during Rodgers injury in 2017, was sent to the Seattle Seahawks after the preseason for a 6th-round pick.
 
Josh Rosen
Cardinals received: 2019 2nd-round pick, 2020 5th-round pick
Rosen was a top-10 pick in 2018 and played bad football in his rookie season, which led the Arizona Cardinals to have the first overall pick in 2019 - they used it to select quarterback Kyler Murray. So, during the 2019 draft, Rosen was traded to the Miami Dolphins for a future 2nd and a 5th. He had three years left in his deal.
 
Joshua Dobbs
Steelers received: 2020 5th-round pick
Dobbs was selected by the Steelers in the 2017 4th round. During the 2019 season, when he was a third-stringer and after Nick Foles broke his collarbone, he was traded to the Jaguars for a 5th-rounder. He had never played significant time for the Steelers, but the situation made it possible for Pittsburgh to keep similar value from the original draft slot.
 
Sam Darnold
Jets received: 2020 6th-round pick, 2021 2nd and 4th-round picks
The Jets had three years of evidence that Sam Darnold was not a good quarterback. Even so, the Panthers thought it was more an Adam Gase problem and traded significant draft capital to acquire the former third overall pick. Besides giving up 2nd, 4th and 6th-rounds picks for one cheap year left, the Panthers immediately exercised Darnold's fifth-year option and guaranteed him $ 18 million for the 2022 season.
 
Gardner Minshew
Jaguars received: 2022 6th-round pick
Minshew was the Jaguars starter for most of two years, in 2019 and 2020. After the team selected Trevor Lawrence and signed CJ Beathard in free agency, Minshew became expendable. He, who had been drafted in the 6th round, was traded exactly for a 6th-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles.
 
Verdict
Several factors influence a trade final price, such as remaining contract time, performance, and the trade partner circumstances. But, when the playing time isn't significant, the original draft slot tends to be a parameter for the value. Jordan Love was a first-round pick, but might have lost some value since he has now only two cost-controlled years left and because he played poorly when had the chance. But it's still plausible for the Packers to get a second-round pick for him (or at least a third), as long as a team who liked Love in the pre-draft process is willing to trust the previous evaluation and give the young quarterback another chance, especially in a year where the draft class isn't well regarded and there are a good number of quarterback vacancies around the league.
 
Photo: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

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Wendell Ferreira covers the Green Bay Packers for Zone Coverage and Cheesehead TV. He is a Brazilian journalist with over a decade of experience covering the NFL, soccer, NBA, and MMA. Follow him on twitter at @wendellfp  

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1 points

Comments (38)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

March 09, 2022 at 09:19 am

Have no idea why the Packers would consider trading Love now. If the Packers are all in this year they need a quality back-up QB. Love has not had many opportunities to play and gain experience. Trade him and they still need a back-up QB. What would be the upside? We do not know terms of Rodger's contract yet. Plus, with that 5th year option if Love is showing upside and improvement they have continuity at QB when Rodger's is at/close to end of his contract. A trade makes zero sense to me.

7 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 10, 2022 at 03:03 am

Because GB is all in for 2022 and 2023. A second round pick could help GB win in 2022 and 2023. [How high is that 2nd round pick, anyway?] Could be worth a Jenkins, Dillon, Myers (?) or a Josh (Jackson or Jones) or Spriggs.

That said, Gute's track record is Myers, Dillon and Jenkins. Any of those types of players would help the all-in effort.

Every comment by LaFleur and Gute about Love has been either lukewarm or otherwise not enthusiastic. I don't know if that was to appease AR, but that as the reason would be a nasty thing to do to a young player.

Reasons not to:

1. I've no idea whether Love can play. Can Love help in 2022? IDK. Can Love help in 2023? IDK. Doubt he will be around in 2024 since I can't imagine GB picking up his option, but depends on AR, perhaps.

2. Negative cap consequences. Trading Love = 110K in cap savings, easily offset by whatever the team has to pay a backup: that is still a negative $600K even if it is Benkert.

3. Love knows the offense, presumably, and has at least a passing acquaintance with some of the receivers (how many remains to be seen and pun intended).

4. The other reason is ignoble. Gute would have to tacitly admit to having made a mistake, either in his evaluation of Love, or AR, or both.

3 points
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jhtobias's picture

March 09, 2022 at 09:36 am

I agree with the first poster. We don't even know what rodgers contract looks like yet . Makes no sense unless you get a first round pick or a stud rookie to trade him at this point .

4 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 09, 2022 at 09:40 am

It is frustrating to read that after 6 quarters of NFL regular season football over 2 years that Love played "poorly". In 4 quarters vs the Chiefs he outplayed Mahomes in a game of solid defenses. In two quarters vs Detroit, playing with backups, he actually outplayed MVP Rodgers who played with starters. Love actually led the team to take a lead the Packer D could not hold.

It took Rodgers 3 years to show up playing behind Favre. Trading Love would be the height of stupidity unless some team would give up a top ten first rounder, which will not happen. Tom Clements is in GB for two reasons, one major and one minor. The minor reason is he has a great rapport with Rodgers...the major reason is to groom Love. He did a fantastic job coaching up Kyler Murray.

5 points
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edp1959's picture

March 09, 2022 at 10:40 am

So wait....
it's the defense's fault when they couldn't hold the lead when Love is QB but it's Rodger's fault when the defense couldn't hold the lead when he is QB. Yep real typical.

ROCK ON REAL PACKERS FANS!!!

0 points
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croatpackfan's picture

March 09, 2022 at 11:21 am

Well, Packers Diva put only 13 points on the board, while Jordan Love put 17 points on the board in the same allowed time, also playing with 2nd and 3rd stringer, while Diva played with starters.

In that game D played very basic D and played lousy throughout whole game...

EDIT: I made mistake, not "Packrers", but Green Bay Rodgerses Diva....

-6 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 09, 2022 at 11:46 am

So wait...

What are you commenting on? I never said the defense failing to hold a lead was "Rodgers fault".

You can push your narrative all you want...but don't misstate my opinion above. And because I have one, you assert I am not a "real Packers fan".

Yep, real typical of judgmental people.

-2 points
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Fubared's picture

March 09, 2022 at 12:54 pm

Realistically there is zero, nada, zip, no mas, that any team in football would want Love other then to be a third string fill in. If the Packers could be a top pick for him and they cant, he would have been dealt by now. If he was the next Rodgers, they would have traded Rodgers away and made the rebuild now using all those picks.
The Org knows what it has in Love and thus gave Rodgers the moon to stay.

-3 points
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Nate-1980's picture

March 11, 2022 at 04:47 pm

Completely agree, he really has very little trade value, they’d be lucky to get a 6 rounder for him, unless that gm is as dumb as ours for picking him in the first place..If that pick was a wr in his second year maybe we score more than 13 last post season..

0 points
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Gerbino's picture

March 09, 2022 at 09:50 am

Love has had better numbers his first 2 seasons than Rodgers. I don’t understand all the hate for the guy. GB drafted Love with the intention of sitting him for 3-4 years. Why would they get rid of him now? All these reactionary writers and fans must have very short memories… this all happened before with Rodgers and the narrative was exactly the same then as it is now. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills because I’m the only one that remembers this, lol.

6 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 09, 2022 at 11:49 am

^^^Required reading for edp1959!

2 points
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egbertsouse's picture

March 09, 2022 at 12:22 pm

No, it's different. You could see Rodgers improve as he played more. You heard good things from the coaches about how he looked in practice. When Favre became a diva they didn't care because they had confidence in what they had.

In Love's case, he looks the same as his Utah State tape. You never here about how good he looks at practice. The coaches comments? Crickets. MLF could only say he "had a long way to go" at his postseason presser. And.....this is a big one....when Choker started his diva crap Gute, Murph and MLF all peed their pants and opened the vault for him knowing Love was a bust.

Please stop comparing Love's situation to Rodgers. It's apples to oranges.

-3 points
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Gerbino's picture

March 09, 2022 at 02:12 pm

And I saw Love improve against KC. Drove down the field to tie the game and then the D never gave him a chance at the W. Plus, if Rodgers is the diva you say he is, then of course the Packers brass isn’t going to gush over Love. They know Love needs more time and don’t want to piss off their MVP QB. Only time will tell how Jordan Love turns out but the non-stop insistence that he’s awful and hasn’t shown anything is rubbish. The numbers speak for themselves: Rodgers completion % was 10 points lower than Love, no TDs, and sacked twice as much with half the playing time. Sounds like you’ve read too many Florio articles.

2 points
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Befuddled's picture

March 10, 2022 at 06:15 am

"You could see Rodgers improve as he played more" That is what is lacking with Love. After 2 seasons Rodgers had the opportunity to play in 8 preseason games. Love has only 2 preseason games after 2 seasons and if he stays this year he will have 5 total preseason games to Rodgers 12 after 3 seasons. I think it is a difference worth pointing out. Twelve games to evaluate vs. five.

0 points
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HarryHodag's picture

March 09, 2022 at 12:46 pm

I don't understand the hate for the guy either. It tells me more about the haters than Love, i.e. lack of football knowledge.

7 points
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Fubared's picture

March 09, 2022 at 12:51 pm

No Gutts plan was to draft Love, someone who was coveted by almost no one except his mother, and slowly develop him over a nine year period, paying him big money to bench sit.
Hell we let Hundley go and he was god awful abut way better then Love.

-7 points
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Return_To_Sanity's picture

March 09, 2022 at 07:08 pm

Its confirmation bias. People are still angry the Packers drafted him so they latch on to anything they see as proof they were right. These same fans all seem to have forgotten just how terrible Rodgers was his first 2 years. He was so bad, fans booed him at the Family Night scrimmage and wanted to trade him for Randy Moss. Sound familiar? At this point, I hope they trade him and he becomes a superstar elsewhere cuz a majority of Packer fans dont deserve him. They didnt Rodgers either.

-1 points
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tincada's picture

March 09, 2022 at 11:11 am

"the Packers could get a 2nd-round pick in return for Love." I want some of drugs this dude is taking. Gute won't trade him for a load of reasons. 1. he won't get a 2nd by any means. 2. They've got bottom feeding $ for someone to keep the bench warm. 3. Trading him would mean that they would have to admit Gute is an idiot, Which he just proved again with this deal with the jerk. Nope they'll kill the kid's career and smile as they lie and make up crap about how great they are on the way to the NFC N.

4 points
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HarryHodag's picture

March 09, 2022 at 12:50 pm

All wrong reasons.

1. Mitchell Trubisky, former high round pick and destroyed by a lousy Bears team, is back being sought after. It does happen for forgotten players.
2. I guess you were not watching when the Packers played the Chiefs. Had it not been for two special teams screw ups the game would have been tied in regulation against one of the top teams in the NFL. Who was the QB that day? Don Majkowski?
3. They likely should trade him and probably will. There are teams more than eager to take a shot at a #1 pick.
4. When you say Gute is an idiot, you apparently forgot about Stokes, Myers, Newman, A.J. Dillon, Deguara, Runyan, Gary, Savage, Jenkins, Alexander, MVS, EQ.St. Brown and others, plus the free agent signings of David B., the Smiths, Turner, Amos and the signing of Tonyan among others. Oh, ya, and that Rodgers guy and D. Adams. Almost forgot them.
(sarcasm) Ya, that Gute is an idiot. He only crafted together the personnel for three back-to-back 13 win seasons, the most in the NFL for a new coach, whom he also hired.

7 points
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Nate-1980's picture

March 11, 2022 at 04:56 pm

Deguara Hahahahahahahaha, you mean the wasted 3 rounder that has done nothing but drop passes?? Huh ?? I’m not even gonna look up his stats I know they stink..Oh but he hustled on that one special teams play in college so we had to have him, he’s a bust..

0 points
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gpt999's picture

March 09, 2022 at 11:17 am

In a sense, I feel for Love. He gets drafted high the first round only to have the incumbent QB have 2 MVP years as he starts his career. And in reality, Love is not a huge hit on GBs salary cap so why look to deal him away? Rodgers' warmed the bench for 4 years. I believe it will come down more to Love's patience as to whether he stays in GB? But yes, GB could certainly use another second round pick ASAP given the cap issues...

7 points
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croatpackfan's picture

March 09, 2022 at 11:27 am

Mr Wendell, I see you also believe that everything should be allowed to Aaroin Rodgers aka Choker. Even to ruin someone's else dreams, just to please Diva...

No, thank you. This franchise will suffer hard in the near future. You'll learn soon enough.

Just imagine what happened if Aaron Rodgers suffers significant injury. What is not impossible related to his age and how hard is to play football...

-11 points
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wildbill's picture

March 09, 2022 at 11:47 am

Love=Kizer 2.0. We would be lucky to get a subway footlong and a drink.

-2 points
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egbertsouse's picture

March 09, 2022 at 12:10 pm

Kizer 2.0, that's my line! You are correct, sir.

-3 points
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Packers0808's picture

March 09, 2022 at 11:57 am

Just wondering if Benkert be farther along than we know and he maybe Clements mentor as well Rodgers! Just a thought and wonder before you all jump all over me.

1 points
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egbertsouse's picture

March 09, 2022 at 12:13 pm

A second rounder? Has that guy been asleep for the last 2 years? A 6th rounder at best. Teams may just wait for him to hit the waiver wire.

-4 points
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Fubared's picture

March 09, 2022 at 12:48 pm

Hell I said we'd be lucky to get a fourth rounder and a sic pack of miller

-3 points
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ricky's picture

March 09, 2022 at 12:14 pm

Love played poorly when he faced KC because the game plan was terrible. It was obvious that the Chiefs would be blitzing a lot to rattle the inexperienced Love. They did. Did MLF make any adjustments during the game to help Love? Did he draw up a game plan to emphasize his strengths? Nope. He was thrown to the wolves, and got eaten alive by the pass rush. Also, Rodgers didn't look all that good when he played early on. So, if the Packers trade Love, they need to find another backup, and would be lucky to receive a second for him. Why not keep him around, see what shakes out this year, and wait until next off-season's drama abates until the team makes any decision.

7 points
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Fubared's picture

March 09, 2022 at 12:47 pm

Wow shocked at how people have placed Love on this high pedestal considering he did little in college and has shown little in practice or pre season games.

Heck if a team offered a 4th round pick and a six pack of Miller, the pack should take it. They already let some third stringers go who has better numbers then Love. and they got nothing for them.

-4 points
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arthurl's picture

March 09, 2022 at 03:12 pm

I am hoping they keep Love and continue his development. The team has brought on a familiar face as their new QB coach, so hopefully Clements can work this guy. He’s learning from #12 and he could still turn out to become a very good player. I remember ARod’s development and it was a work in process where by year three, he began to show signs. There still have not been enough opportunity warranted to judge Love’s performance, so it would seem to me since the team has invested two years, they need to see it through.

6 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

March 09, 2022 at 04:08 pm

Continue his development for what? They're not picking up his 5th year option, they can't afford it. He'll be on another team by the time Rodgers retires. I don't think he's straight trash like some people, he hasn't played enough to judge one way or another yet. But he needs to play in 5 or 6 straight games to get handle on how good or bad he can be and if that happens on the Packers the season is shot anyway.

2 points
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stockholder's picture

March 09, 2022 at 03:25 pm

PEOPLE- THE WAR IS OVER. Rodgers Won. Love must go! Follow the money here. Cap hit is 3 mil. Plus! And it's only going up. For a bench warmer.? You can't keep a Guy that you can get a pick for. It's just that simple. Cap + Pick = Gone! Why let a cap casualty happen. 3 mil Also works for signing draft picks.

-1 points
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Roadrunner23's picture

March 09, 2022 at 04:10 pm

Let Love develop, he might have to play this year if Rodgers bangs his toe on the coffee table after one too many glasses of Scotch 😂

4 points
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Matt Gonzales's picture

March 09, 2022 at 04:52 pm

The Packers could easily get the same deal Indy just got for Wentz (a three this year and a conditional 2/3 next year) for Love - maybe more since his contract is so much cheaper.

On one hand - GB needs someone that at least gives them even odds to win as a backup if Rodgers misses a couple games. Any other available quarterback that does that is going to cost much more than Love.

On the other - if Rodgers misses more than a couple games the season is probably toast anyway. If they can get that next stud ILB or OL/DL help this year (or a special teams maven) by trading a player who by all rights shouldn't ever see the field when it matters anyway, go for it.

I think Love being traded will depend on what other moves get made in the next two weeks, but my guess is he is on the roster this year.

1 points
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Fubared's picture

March 09, 2022 at 06:27 pm

Wouldn't it be ironic if in game 1 Rodgers breaks a leg misses the whole season -50 mil down the drain baby. and tries to come back next year closing in on 40, arm a noodle and another 50 mil down the drain baby.
Sounds silly until you thing, wow that is a huge amount of money going up in smoke if he gets hurt and a major injury at 39 doesnt heal that quick. Okay where is Love when you need him?

-3 points
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canadapacker's picture

March 09, 2022 at 08:15 pm

The point here is that Love has 1 game under his belt and it was a flop - he has one mop up against Detroit and it wasnt a success. Unlike AR who had a nice outing in his backup roll against Dallas. So the point has to be not to trade him and let him really get some more OTA/Preseason/ practice reps. If he gets to play because AR gets hurt - GB will probably lose - unless he is as good as Matt Flynn was in his limited time. If he has shown something - then maybe he will have some draft value. If he doesnt develop then the team needs to start looking at AR's "real replacement" . Finally they may get a cheap 5th year option since he hasnt played many snaps - and that may end up being a Favre-AR scenario again in year 3 of this new AR contract.

1 points
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Cartwright's picture

March 10, 2022 at 06:22 am

We need WR's, after Davante its a nose dive take what draft picks you can get ( a two would be sweet ) and bring back Bortles, a proven commodity who may win you a game or two in a pinch. Unload where possible and go all in while we still got da Man. Go Pack go.

0 points
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jont's picture

March 10, 2022 at 11:47 am

FWIW
At this link a Colts writer makes the case that Indy should offer GB a 2nd for Love:
https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2022/03/10/indianapolis-colts-jordan-love...

0 points
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