Is it a Guarantee the Packers Will Keep a Fullback?

The way the Packers have used the fullback position in the last two years indicates there's at least a small possibility the team eliminates the position entirely in 2018.

For years now, the Packers have been one of the few remaining teams in the NFL to reliably use a fullback every year. Players like William Henderson, John Kuhn, Korey Hall, Quinn Johnson and Aaron Ripkowski have all been key role players on offense and special teams as fullbacks.

But the league continues to evolve to a more spread-out game, with less room for specialized players like fullbacks who rarely touch the ball and don't have the speed or agility to be very versatile chess pieces. 

The way the Packers use the fullback certainly appears to be changing, based on the recent usage of Aaron Ripkowski and his predecessor John Kuhn. Just look at the last three years.

In 2017, Ripkowski played 180 offensive snaps, merely 17.19 percent of the total snaps taken on offense. Compare this to the 288 snaps he took in 2016 for 26.52% of the total offensive snaps that year. In 2015, John Kuhn (305) and Ripkowski (18) combined for 323 offensive snaps, just over 27% of the total offensive snaps taken that year. In every other year except one since 2012, Kuhn played a minimum of 318 offensive snaps, including 374 in 2012 (33.91% of offensive snaps that year).

Clearly, there has been a massive decline in fullback usage over the last six years while the Packers are on offense, and an especially large dropoff in the last two. The explanations for this are either:

  • The Packers' offensive scheme no longer places as high of a level of emphasis on the fullback position, or
  • The Packers do not value Aaron Ripkowski specifically as an offensive contributor

Both of these could be true to an extent. Kuhn's larger usage on average indicates the Packers viewed him as a more valuable piece of the offense. But I think the first is at least as large of a factor. Consider that Ripkowski has still solidly held down a roster spot for three years, and is still an odds-on favorite to make the roster again in 2018. Plus, with the way the league and the Packers' offense is going, the Packers could simply be one of the last teams to phase out the fullback position.

So is there a chance the team could carry no fullbacks at all in 2018?

I wouldn't bet on it, personally, but it also would not be a shocking development. The Packers have a lot of intriguing prospects at the wide receiver position right now, and they absolutely will not be able to keep all of them. If they intend to keep seven receivers on the roster, that seventh roster spot will need to come from somewhere else. There is also a real possibility the Packers keep three quarterbacks on the 53-man roster, and depth players at other positions (like cornerback) could make some decisions difficult for the Packers. The Packers also signed run-blocking stud Marcedes Lewis at the tight end position this offseason, and the team could ask him to line up in the backfield as a lead blocker in some formations.

Given the rapidly decreasing usage of the fullback position in the Packers' offense, it could be a potential spot that gets the axe.

An article by Football Outsiders that closely analyzed NFL teams' run games in 2017 also investigated the relic that is the fullback position and its shrinking place in the modern game. 

According to FO's numbers, the Packers ran out of a single back formation 221 times in 2017 versus just 92 times out of a two-back formation. On single back runs, the Packers averaged 4.4 yards per carry, a full yard per carry more than they averaged on runs out of two-back formations (3.4 ypc). 

These are some telling figures that are emblematic of the changing offensive gameplans seen around the league. Even more telling: there was only one team in the entire league in 2017 that ran out of two back sets more often than out of single back sets: the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers averaged 4.4 ypc out of single back and 4.0 ypc out of two back. 

The fullback position has been dying out for decades in the NFL, and there are signs that it is beginning to go extinct in Green Bay, as well. It might be a minor surprise to see the Packers go without a fullback in 2018, but it's certainly not out of the question any more.

 

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Tim Backes is a lifelong Packer fan and a contributor to CheeseheadTV. Follow him on Twitter @timbackes for his Packer takes, random musings and Untappd beer check-ins.

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Comments (38)

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Chuck Farley's picture

August 14, 2018 at 07:28 pm

This is another non issue like k Mack coming here. Mm loves fullbacks He still has the we will pound the ball mentality. No way in he'll he doesn't have one or two on his roster. No way.

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DD's picture

August 14, 2018 at 08:07 pm

Chuck: MM rarely runs the ball.

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KenEllis's picture

August 14, 2018 at 10:48 pm

MM may have the we will pound the ball mentality but in his 12 years in Green Bay he has rarely displayed it.

The FB does very little for the offense and unnecessarily takes up a roster spot.

Time for MM to evolve with the rest of the NFL.

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KenEllis's picture

August 14, 2018 at 10:49 pm

MM may have the we will pound the ball mentality but in his 12 years in Green Bay he has rarely displayed it.

The FB does very little for the offense and unnecessarily takes up a roster spot.

Time for MM to evolve with the rest of the NFL.

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Turophile's picture

August 15, 2018 at 03:25 am

Not 'No way', Chuck, Way.
I was only thinking about whether GB should keep a FB yesterday.

The NFL is always evolving, MM has had to keep up with NFL philosophies which these days are more geared to passing and stopping the pass than ever before. Just because he has kept a fullback in the past, doesn't mean he will continue that.

This year has extraordinary pressures on the makeup of the offensive side of the ball in the final 53. If you split the O and D equally, there are 25 spots available on offense. I'm sure MM would LIKE to keep 3 QBs, 7 WRs and 9 OL this year. That leaves 3 spots for TEs and three left over for the RBs and FB. You COULD live with two RBs and a FB for two weeks (until RB Jones comes back), but who gets cut to allow him back. RB is such a high-contact position, you absolutely need more than 2 RBs for a season.

The less a FB is needed, the more likely it is that pressure from other positions combine to threaten it's roster spot. Because a team either has a FB or does not have one, it's easy to miss seeing the pressure applied over time, as to whether you actually NEED a FB. That might be particularly true this year, when the playbook has been re-done from scratch.

MM hasn't really shown much 'pound the ball' mentality on the field. If anything he has a 'throw the ball' mentality, largely due to the quality he has had at QB, over the years.

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Bure9620's picture

August 14, 2018 at 07:39 pm

I actully think Rip is our best goal line and short yardage back. Williams was getting better at fighting for short yardage but 3rd or 4th and inches or at the goal line, gimme the RIP!

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NickPerry's picture

August 15, 2018 at 06:46 am

At the beginning of last year I would have agreed with you but by the end of the year Williams was doing what just about every scouting report said he'd do...Fall Forward....Obviously 3rd or 4th and inches at the goal line isn't really the place a RB falls forward for extra yards but this kid impressed me more and more as the year progressed. Give me Williams down there at the one inch line. You never know when he might have to leap over the line and Ripper ain't leaping... : )

Last thing...If it comes down to Rip or one of these young WR the Packers just drafted making the 53 give me the WR. Sorry Rip.

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Lare's picture

August 14, 2018 at 07:44 pm

Ripkowski really struggled last year. He whiffed on a lot of lead blocks that led to minimal rushing gains. He kept hitting the hole with his head down and totally missed the player he was supposed to block. If he's going to continue his career in the NFL he needs to keep his head up so he can see the person he's supposed to be blocking.

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Coldworld's picture

August 14, 2018 at 09:06 pm

Rip was a big disappointment last year. I believe that was the cause of the decline in reps. I don’t know if he had an injury of some sort but he was a shadow of the player of the year before. If he doesn’t show something in preseason then maybe an extra TE or LB for special teams could be an option.

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Hawg Hanner's picture

August 14, 2018 at 09:40 pm

Agree that Ripkowski doesn't bring enough to the table to warrant making the roster, forget about Kerridge as well. There is a reason fullbacks are an anachcronism. Just put a tight end in the backfield if you need a buster,

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

August 14, 2018 at 10:10 pm

I'd suggest that Rip simply isn't very good.
2015: Our DVOA was better with 2 backs than 1.
2016: Our DVOA was much worse with 2 backs.
2017: Our DVOA again was much worse w 2 backs.

I can't find data for 2014 and earlier. Rip gained 150 yds in 2016, and 13 yards in 2017. He caught 9 passes and 7 passes in 2016 and 2017 for a total of 85 yards. Low to almost non-existent rushing and receiving stats for FBs is pretty normal, though.

So he isn't a good runner, not much threat as a receiver, and his lead blocking is poor. I don't get the Rip love, but he is a big part of special teams. If the main thing is lead blocking and pass pro, Kerridge is better.

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Striker's picture

August 14, 2018 at 07:48 pm

KUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUHN

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DD's picture

August 14, 2018 at 08:06 pm

Let fullback go. Use two half back sets and flare one of them out or run one.

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Bret Iverson's picture

August 14, 2018 at 08:11 pm

Special teams is still a major duty for any fullback in Green Bay.

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PatrickGB's picture

August 14, 2018 at 08:21 pm

I am glad that this has been written about. My eyes told me what your stats have shown. GB fans love their fullback but I don’t see the value in it. Or perhaps it’s just Rip not getting the job done. An H back can do the same thing and we have plenty of bodies for ST, so a fullback can be replaced there as well. Kuhn was smart in pass pro but not do much else. Those one yard goal line runs can be made without a fullback. I realize that often defenses can be fooled when a fullback actually catches the ball and is not covered well but those plays are rare.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

August 14, 2018 at 09:53 pm

Tim: How does the return of Philbin affect the FB if it does?

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TimBackes's picture

August 15, 2018 at 10:16 am

Unsure. They definitely still had some big fullback usage after Philbin left--just look at the numbers for 2012, when Kuhn was on the field for more than a third of offensive snaps.

I'd have to go back and look at the numbers for 2011, without any analysis my recollection is that they ran quite a bit more from the gun that year than they did in other years of the Rodgers era, even for a team that makes relatively frequent use of the gun. Plus, with the insane depth they had at receiver that year, I would guess they probably used more no-back sets than at any point in the Rodgers/McCarthy era.

My guess is that Philbin's return wouldn't affect the fullback position as much as other factors already mentioned, but it is certainly something to consider.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

August 15, 2018 at 11:16 am

Thanks for the response Tim. For me Philbin is that X factor in how will his return change the predictable offense we've seen from MM since Philbin left. A lot of people take predictable as offensive which isn't how I intend it. Even if the defense knows what's coming it's still tough to stop Rodgers. I just want to see more creativity to change tough to next to impossible.

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dobber's picture

August 15, 2018 at 07:00 pm

Outstanding talent and great execution can make even a predictable play hard to stop. Sadly, the Packers had neither to go with their predictable play on defense a year ago.

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DraftHobbyist's picture

August 14, 2018 at 11:38 pm

I agree that we will probably keep the FB, but I also wouldn't be completely shocked if we ended up with 0 FB's. There are a few things I take issue with in your article, so I'm going to go through those:
1) Marcedes Lewis is no replacement for Aaron Ripkowski. Lewis is 265+ lbs, while Ripkowski is around 245 lbs. That's a huge difference. I would much rather see both Lewis and Ripkowski in than just Lewis in the backfield as the H-back/FB. I think that having a FB out there also adds value in potential where you can force the Defense to bring numbers up and then throw with Rodgers to Adams in 1-on-1. 5 OL, Rodgers, Adams, Graham, Lewis, Ripkowski, and a RB seems very strong to me.

2) I think you got a little too much into the stats. I don't really care what the YPC is with 1- or 2- back sets necessarily. Would you rather have 4 yards on 2nd and 10 in a 1-back set or 1 yard on 3rd and 1 in a 2-back set? Give me the 1st Down all day, but that's going to come up as a 1 yard average and a 4 yard average in the stats.

3) You mentioned it, but I wanted to highlight it. A FB is very good on ST's. They can get down the field and blow blockers up, tackle if they have to, are excellent blockers, etc. They are like a LB, but instead of specializing in defensive talents, they specialize in offensive talents. If we aren't going to carry a FB, I really think we need to carry a TE that have FB skills, and I just don't see that guy on our roster. Lewis and Graham aren't those kind of TE's. The other TE's, like Byrd, I have not been impressed with so far.

4) I'd like to point out that Rodgers got hurt last year. It might be smart to protect him a little more this year. Running the ball more, especially while ahead, is a great way to do that. Using FB's for extra protection in the passing game can also help. FB's can keep Defenses honest, too, because they can slip out so easily and offer a checkdown for big yards much like a TE.

I hope we keep Ripkowski. I think he's a good enough player, and I think we lack a good replacement. I also think we'll keep him, but never say never.

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BradHTX's picture

August 15, 2018 at 07:59 am

Your point #2 about number of yards gained being meaningless outside of context is a good one. A further point: without context you also can't tell whether the lower YPC with two backs would be lower still with only one. It's possible those 2-back run plays were in tough situations where that lower yardage gained was actually a better outcome than if a single back had attempted the run.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

August 15, 2018 at 08:57 am

I think all 4 points are reasonable, although point 1 and 4 seem largely the same. Kendricks was listed as an FB/TE in his 2nd season, FWIW. I don't know if Lewis can block in space in pass pro the way a FB is required to. I don't know if either Lewis or Kendricks can lead block. Kendricks has one carry for -8 yards in 7 seasons. Lewis has no rushing attempts. I should think that Lewis or Kendricks could leak out and catch a pass.

I expect that we will keep a FB.

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TimBackes's picture

August 15, 2018 at 10:19 am

Right, my intent wasn't to imply that Lewis would be a replacement at FB, just that it's possible he could be used occasionally in a FB capacity. As could Kendricks, really (and possibly more likely).

Given how rapidly FB usage is decreasing, I wouldn't be shocked to see tight ends taking 100-150+ snaps out of the backfield if they really wanted to use two-back sets.

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DraftHobbyist's picture

August 15, 2018 at 12:16 pm

I know you weren't saying Lewis would be a permanent replacement at FB. My point was that Lewis really isn't ever a replacement, even occasionally, at FB. He's just too big, slow, etc. And sure, you can throw Kendricks back there (or Lewis), but I just don't think they'll be very good at it. I'd much rather have a real FB, and just having a body isn't good enough. We need the right guys in the right spots who can actually get the job done consistently. Would you rather have Ripkowski at FB or Lewis/Kendricks?

Another thing is that if you cut Ripkowski, there's a good chance you are cutting a guy who sees the field for a guy who most likely never sees the field. A #7 WR, #3 QB, etc. are likely never seeing the field unless there is an injury. So you can bring up how few plays Ripkowski plays, but they are situational and usually very important plays (like 3rd and short and goal line), while the other guy on the roster is likely to see fewer, less important snaps.

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4EVER's picture

August 15, 2018 at 12:00 am

One would think the new lowering of the helmet contact rule would be the final nail in the coffin for the FB. They physically can't juke 80% of today's defenders and have an innate bulldozer running style of dropping the shoulder and plowing - tough to do without the helmet joining the party.

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Mibster's picture

August 15, 2018 at 05:22 am

I agree with 4EVER, A fullback with head held up high would get leveled (and injured for sure). One, rethink and find new possibilities for the fullback position, or two, scrap it completely!

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RCPackerFan's picture

August 15, 2018 at 06:39 am

'Is it a Guarantee the Packers Will Keep a Fullback?'

This is something I honestly never gave any consideration to. That they actually may not keep a FB.

But there are some reasons why they may not.

First they may want to use the extra roster spot for other positions.
Perhaps TE where they have 3 veteran players and then they have a young guy that they seem to like in Byrd. Instead of using a traditional FB they could then use a TE like Kendricks essentially as a FB or H-back which would then put a 3rd TE on the field. It gives the offense a ton of versatility. A lot more then what any FB would offer.

They will likely be running a lot more 2 TE sets which almost always takes away the FB.

I'm not saying they won't keep a FB, because honestly I think they will. But I think there is a case to be made that they actually might not.
More then anything the FB will be kept for special teams. If there aren't better players for special teams I think Ripkowski who is a good special teams player, will stay.

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DraftHobbyist's picture

August 15, 2018 at 06:48 am

If Graham is split out wide, though, then 2 TE sets are actually 1 TE sets.

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RCPackerFan's picture

August 15, 2018 at 07:39 am

True, but that is what is great about having the 2 TE sets with Graham as one of the TE's. It can go from 2 TE's to 3 WR's on any given play.

Add in Kendricks to that and it can go from 3 TE's, to 2 TE's with 1 becoming a WR. It can also go to 1 TE with one being a FB and 1 a WR or 2 becoming WR's.

The flexibility of these players should give the offense a ton of options and give defenses a tough time to defend it.

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Since'61's picture

August 15, 2018 at 07:55 am

With Rodgers injured last season the Packers may have chosen to keep more versatile players on the field in the futile hope that Hundley could get the ball to them.

With Rodgers return from injury they may want to keep a FB for extra pass pro. To me that is not enough of a reason to take a roster spot so unless Rip or Kerridge are really special on STs I don't see the need to keep a FB.

Philbin's plan for the offense will factor heavily into this decision. Other factors will be how many QBs, WRs, TEs and OLs are kept on the 53. It may be that keeping 7 WRs provides more upside for the offense than keeping a FB. Maybe a FB is retained until Jones returns? We'll see, but I don't think the FB position will last much longer in GB. Thanks, Since '61

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Johnblood27's picture

August 15, 2018 at 09:21 am

point 3

fb are good on st.
bs
fb as a position are not de facto good st players.
individuals can be good on st. positions are not.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

August 15, 2018 at 10:04 am

For Point 3 he said FBs in GB have been good on ST JohnBlood or at least that was my interpretation. Rip and Kuhn took a ton of snaps on ST.

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Johnblood27's picture

August 15, 2018 at 09:25 am

im with the its time to move on from (our current crop) of fb.

not enough value.

rip had one good year. he has been borderline useless since his atl fumble.

if not a killer st player and versatile enough to excell at blitz pickup, lead blocking, occasional short yd carries and flexing to h back duties just cut the cord.

fb traditional is an anachronism and useless in todays game.

tough players are always useful, they just dont fit into the tradional fb role in todays game.

get tough, bail on the fb role

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fthisJack's picture

August 15, 2018 at 09:48 am

very nice article Tim. i would love it if they go 4 RB without a FB and give the roster spot to a guy with upside....7 WR. and Rip hardly played last year so it really seems like a wasted roster spot.

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4thand10's picture

August 15, 2018 at 11:53 am

Traditionally FBs are shorter and thicker than a TE. Blocking in the backfield is different than blocking on the line. In the past FBs were more tough and stout than TEs. They have to be able to block a defender at full speed with a 5 yard head start coming at them and QB so they have to be able to “ stick” em. Occasionally you can sneak them out for a pass but this play has been always used sparingly as they are slower, but have more power. I remember the days of Henderson absolutely blowing people up....yeah, they would get on him fast, but he would still drag 2 dbs and a linebacker 5-6 yards down the field because they couldn’t get him down. The speed did not help them any.

While I do appreciate the speed of today’s game and players I sometimes miss the power of a good fullback.

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billybobton's picture

August 15, 2018 at 02:39 pm

Watch the bad kickoff run last thursday v the titans....it is RIP who blows the block, he can not run block, he can not pass block

he is a better runner than blocker but rarely gets rushing attempts

he should not have made the team last year and with a GM not named teddie believing his pay is tied to keeping his draft choices will probably be gone

the choice of RIP over JK spoke volumes but to compare our # TE and RIP?
or our WR 7 or RIP?
or a QB?

Rip does not make the grade

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Lare's picture

August 15, 2018 at 06:31 pm

Agreed, the Packers can keep someone else on the 53 man roster who provides more performance, production and value than Ripkowski.

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porupack's picture

August 15, 2018 at 07:07 pm

Fullback as a 'position' is no longer needed.
But Fullback as a 'function' can be had with a Jamaal Williams in for 2-back sets; to be used as either a blocker, decoy, or the ball carrier.

Jamaal Williams can replace Ripkowski. JWilliams' most acclaimed asset is his pass blocking, which I'm sure is a bit different than a power forward block. But you would have a better ball carrier in the game as one of the two-back sets still able to deliver a blow to a linebacker;
JWilliams is more valuable piece in the offfense than ARipkowski
FB as a 'function' can be retained with JWilliams for special plays.
Keep only 4 RBs and save a slot for the 7th WR

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