Nice, comprehensive writeup.

First of all, throw out 2017. The only thing that matters is how Nelson does with Rodgers. That said, because he has a special timing with Rogers he's worth more to the Packers than other teams. And it benefits him to stay. If I was BG I would offer him a 2 year 10 million extension and spread out his hit to about 7 million a season. He can play with Rodgers in the slot for several more years.

Jordy is such a technician and possesses such a knowledge of this offense that he has the trust of 12 and we've all seen and heard how important that is.

I'm not fully convinced Jordy is finished. He suffered a strange injury at Atlanta and wasn't the same. I'm hopeful that it actually had a lot to do with his decline along with Hundley.

No way can you pay him his current cap number as you noted.

Cobb has suffered a similar decline after he got his money that Jordy is going through right now. Not sure what is behind that decline but he had the AC joint issue that hurt him all year a few seasons ago. Our guys just can't stay healthy.

Way too much money going to guys who aren't available or are compromised too much to be valuable.

Hate to see Jordy go but wouldn't be opposed to it, IF, it wasn't about that injury at Atlanta last season.

6-7 mil a year is reasonable for what will be a veteran part time player, sounds about right. He might still surprise with Rodgers back, he was playing well till Rodgers got hurt.

Nelson had six TDs the first five games of 2017. Then Rodgers got hurt and the rest is history. So, can he still be useful? Absolutely. Slot receiver for a reduced salary? Great. Spread it out for two or three more years, heavily front loaded. Or with a small cap hit if he's cut in later years. As was stated, that special connection with Rodgers will pay dividends, especially in the red zone, if 2017 is any measure.

If people don't blame his lack of production on Hundley they just ...arent smart. To think that Jordy still won't be damn good with AR back is also..not smart.

He was slower in 2017, but is he too slow? He got behind the Carolina defense, so he can't be that slow.

The packers shouldn't keep Nelson and Cobb at their current pay. Both need to take a cut or move on.

Why are you all so eager to send Jordy packing? He’s the epitome of a Packer and deserves to be let out to pasture with great respect, celebration and grace!!! Aren’t many like him before or going forward!!! He’s a true champion and another BART STARR legacy!!!

When you play with AR and lose him, the let down is huge. Jordy would be deadly in the slot. So that leaves us with no deep threat. Adams gets open but isn't a burner, we need a burner. This will be Gutes 1st big gut wrenching decision, cut him or hopefully extend him. Jordy is the type of guy that will do what's best for the team, and I for one don't want to see him in Minny. Those pricks would probably sign him the next day.

Very nice article. Thanks. I would like to see a similar write up on Cobb. It's clear one of them has to go, and the other has to he restructured. I just don't know which yet.

We all love Jordy and everything he has done for the pack. His forte, speed. The past two years he lost step one and two, and is now covered like a blanket. His break away days are done. I was hoping he would call it a career and go out with his head high. Rogers can't make him faster.

So if you look at the data that Andrew pulled together it is clear that the downward trajectory was in place before Rodgers went down. Also, if you look at just thwe first five games, Jordy averaged only 12.1 yards per reception and 8.2 per target, which is at or below his numbers for 2016. At best, Jordy in 2018 will look like Jordy in 2016 - which was still good for 14 TDs and over 1200 yards. Cobb had ONE season like that in his career, and Adams still needs to crack the 1000 yard mark.

In terms of money, yeah, he probably needs to take a pay cut, and he has already publically said he would. He also agreed to team-friendly deals in the past. And when Cobb got paid more than him he never complained, not once.

Jordy is a good football player. Yes, he is not as fast as he was before his injury and he should probably be moved to the slot if the Packers keep him. I hope the Packers keep him because the Packers need good football players. Not only does Jordy have a great rapport with Rodgers but Jordy would make a great mentor for younger receivers.
If the Packers decide to keep Jordy they should restructure his contract and draft another 1 or 2 WRs. If they decide to go to FA for a WR then it's more likely they will release Jordy for the cap space sign a veteran WR and maybe draft another.
Assuming Jordy would move to the slot if kept that would be 3 slot receivers; Jordy, Cobb and Monty. To me that's one player too many and in that case I would expect Cobb to be released. The decisions made with Jordy and Cobb could give us an insight into Gute's philosophy about building the roster. Time will tell. Thanks, Since '61

As much as you say restructure. Is he done? No./\. I wouldn't sign any FA until they cut him. Or Retirement. Cut Cobb, lose Janis. Cut Allison. Then they'll ," Find that long term answer". Cause it sure the heck isn't Adams either.

You may be right about Jordy losing a step, but most of that analysis is built of comparison to his defender. I’m more of a data analysis guy. Use the video to time and calculate his speeds.

Looks plenty fast to me. Week 15, 2017.

https://twitter.com/The_Green_Gold/status/953311017081229312

No.

Not sure I agree with all the analysis here. Maybe Jordy's not what he was, but I think it's not as precipitous as presented here. For example examining the five videos following the caption "Fast forward to 2017, and you see a lot of this:" I come up with a slightly different narrative.

The first one against the Cowboys, the pass is clearly underthrown forcing Jordy to completely turn around and slow down to even have a chance. Bad throw.

The second one against Minny, he was well covered. Can't tell if it was 4.31 40 time Trae Waynes in coverage on that one, but nonetheless Jordy has to track the ball on his route. He went where the ball was and the DB was able to also. Good coverage plain and simple. Don't know what else Jordy could have done on that play.

The third one against Chicago, Jordy has the dude beat inside. A throw to the numbers and he's off to the races. Instead the pass floats towards the boundary. Bad pass.

The fourth one - a deep route down the seam, Jordy gets past the DB despite a 10 yard cushion. If the QB goes over the top near the numbers it's a long completion. Instead the pass is late and inside allowing the safety to get over. Bad throw.

The last one I don't care how much speed a WR has he's not going to blow by a DB who has a 15 yard cushion and the boundary to help squeeze the receiver. It's just not a pattern any receiver is going to blow by a DB. A well placed ball might allow Jordy to snatch it away else that play was dead on arrival.

From what I saw Jordy still has the long stride and the ability to get on the DB quick. If you rewatch some of the 2014 footage note how precise most of the passes are.

To me Jordy's fall off in 2017 is mostly synchronized with advent of number 7 at QB.

Here’s a question, based on contracts given to Kan Chancellor (12 mil) and Micah Hyde (6 mil) they’re is a possibility that Morgan Burnett could ask for and get 10 mil on the open market. Do you guys think he’s worth that type of money for the Packers? We’re talking about a safety that has 9 career interceptions, 7.5 sacks, 8 FF, and 9 FR not exactly a guy they should be breaking the bank for. I think MB has been solid throughout his career nothing more nothing less.

Jordy not going anywhere Rodgers will make sure of that , probably restructure with incentives . Would the Patriots take away one of Brady's guys without him having a say in it , I don't think so .

Yes. They have on a number of occasions. There is no loyalty in NE once ability wanes. It has been a key factor in their continual renewal.

sentiment loses seasons.

Just to add to the discussion - Jordy already publicly said that he is open for restructuring his contract and that he would prefer to retire as Packer....

Tough decisions. Love both Nelson and Cobb, but somethings got to give. We definitely need a burner to complement Adams, and a big, fast TE. So I say restructure both Cobb and Nelson for two year contracts at 6 million each. Platoon them in the slot; fresh legs, know the system. That way if a receiver gets nicked, likely, you still have a veteran stepping in. Unlike Hundley stepping in for Rodgers!! Thoughts?

Thank you for one of the best analytic articles one could ask for. I agree Jordy has hit the wall and for the good of the team has to retire or be waived. Why mess around another year even at a veteran minimum salary when the ability to make a big play has so diminished.
Cobb has great hands and can get open too. We need speed and deep threats.

Jordy washed up? I seriously doubt it. You have to throw out this year and look at next year to see how effective he is. Cut his pay, sure. You don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

In those video replays, are the defenders getting faster and are the teams shown not of the same calibre? It could be that the offensive pass routes simply aren't as effective in today's game as in the past few years. Just asking.

Number 1 - No way you get rid of him just on stats.
Stats for first 5 games (missed Atlanta due to injury) he put up the following:
TDs - 6 (on pace for 18 for the year)
Yards - 290, ave 58 per game (on pace for 870)
Average for long catch in each game - 30.6 yards. His shortest long in a game before Brett started was 14 his only game that was lower than his highest with BH which was 17. His longest play was 58 yards which ain't bad.

Put him in the slot, draft Ridley and put him and Adams wide and you have the makings of one lethal passing attack!

Any discussion of Jordy being done is just sill He's not as fast as he once was, but a lot of last year had to do simply with Rodgers not being there. That's obvious. For me it's more important being on the roster, more critical than normal as he's going to be an example to the other players of what it means to be a Packer and that can only help their development. Lead by example.

Once again I admire the work of the article and video but the comments tend to be far more accurate than the writer

It is tough to understand how someone could do all the work for an article like this and not watch video, not watch how open Jordy is on several of the videos and the ball does not come, the routes Jordy got open deep on v the panthers are missing

you can justify your conclusion ahead of time but the video did not support it

Nelson's production more to do with change in QB/gameplan than loss of a step. And, while I admit Jordy looked slower at times this year and I appreciate the work done by the author, there are some things overlooked in this analysis.

For example, including Nelson’s 2011 stats to show a decline ignores the fact that from his rookie season through 2011 he was basically a #2, 3, or 4 WR. Add to that the fact that his 2011 season stats are historically unique. The NFL has tracked targets for 25 years. In that time, NO ONE in the league has achieved Nelson's productive efficiency in 2011 - 68 rec for 1263 yds and 15 TDs on only 96 targets. You can find comparative numbers here…Player Season Finder | Pro-Football-Reference.com. Just search WR seasons with equal to or less than 120 targets. Sort however you like. Any subsequent season will certainly show a decline.

Any observation from before the ACL, film or stats, clearly shows Jordy was one of the best all-around WRs in the game for the first half of this decade. Guys his size with hands, body control, brains, and his top end speed do not grow on trees. That version of Jordy Nelson will be missed and will be very hard to replace (as it was in 2015). A healthy and maturing Adams will help. He’s a different WR with his own abilities, but Davante hasn’t come close to prime Nelson in terms of productivity. Time will tell.

In regards to Jordy’s 2016 which everyone seems to forget…Well, he missed pretty much all of camp and basically had to play himself back into shape. In his first six games, he looked off. BUT barely over a year ago, Nelson was finishing a stretch of 10 games where he averaged 7 catches on 10 targets for 93.6 yards and .9 TDs per game. That’s probably the best production in the league at the WR position over that stretch.

Less than a year later, six games into the season Nelson’s leading the league in TDs and no one’s questioning anything. Okay, the yardage isn’t there but the OL is in shambles and there’s no time for longer developing deep routes. Then it all ends. For the second time in Jordy’s career, the Packers lose Rodgers and are completely unprepared at backup QB.

Enter Hundley…Ironically, Jordy’s best game with Hundley was probably the Vikings game when Rodgers left. Why? Because the gameplan was designed for Rodgers and not Hundley. And defenses had no idea Hundley couldn’t hit the broad side of a bus with a downfield pass. I don’t think anyone can dispute that or the fact that Nelson runs most of the Packer’s deep routes. Can anyone think of more than a couple of nicely thrown deep balls like the one to Adams in the Bears game (where Adams was tightly covered BTW) over the course of Hundley’s entire season? Most of the deep throws were off, and the one’s he completed were to guys who were wide open (busted coverage in Steeler’s game, Adams double move).

Not only did defenses recognize this, but the whole Packers offensive gameplan changed due to this limitation. Entire games with almost all of Hundley’s passes travelling less than 7 yards. Nelson’s typical game with Hundley was 5 or 6 targets with 3 around the LOS and maybe one inaccurate deep shot that at best drew PI and at worst was picked. Hundley forced the Packers to change the gameplan and Jordy was relegated to blocking and running clearing routes. For all the clips of Nelson you posted, there are still more of Jordy getting separation and a ball is delivered in the dirt, or behind him, or late, or never delivered at all. Even if Jordy was consistently getting behind defenses, does anyone think Hundley had the accuracy, patience, or vision to get the ball downfield to him? (see Jordy wide open running down the center of the field in the Lions game while Brett drops his eyes and panics at the hint of pressure).

If you broke down all the time Jordy ran deep routes, I bet you’d find a pretty good percentage where he got enough separation or drew some sort of PI. You’ve pretty much presented all the ones where he’s been covered, but not all the routes he ran. For every clip you have of Jordy running downfield, I can go through the coaches film and find a matching clip of Julio Jones or Antonio Brown with corners running stride for stride. The difference is those guys were given opportunities to make plays with balls that were catchable.

As for the short to intermediate stuff, well sure defenses played tighter. Is that because Nelson was slower or Hundley’s inadequacies forced an offensive game plan that was reluctant to throw the ball deep? I’d say more of the latter.

So, has Jordy lost it? Was he playing hurt (Nelson’s never been forthcoming about injuries)? Is it the gameplan? Is it the QB? No doubt a combo of all the things to different degrees just as you suggest. I’m sure the team knows far more than any of us and will do a much deeper evaluation. I tend to think Jordy’s still pretty much the player he was in 2016 and would like to see him come back for another couple of seasons and finish his career as a Packer. If he comes back next season, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him get over 1000 yds and and 10 TDs.