Jones or Dillon, Who Will Have a Bigger Year?

Running backs will be busy as passing game finds its way.

Running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon don’t get the national acclaim they deserve.  When the network talking heads are gabbing about the best rushers in the NFL, they expound the virtues of guys like Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara.  Cbssports.com recently ranked the top ten running backs in the NFL.  The highest ranked Packer was Jones at ninth.  Dillon did not make the list. 

Perhaps one reason for this is Jones and Dillon live in the shadow of Aaron Rodgers, who dominates any media coverage that is not local.  I have a feeling that is about to change.   One of them, if not both of them, are going to break out this year as major stars. 

Understandably, most of the focus in training camp has been on Jordan Love, the young receivers, the shuffle along the offensive line, and the stalwart defense.  Okay, but once the games begin for real, the key to the success of the offense is going to be Jones and Dillon.  When the 2022 season comes to a close, I’m betting the leading pass receiver on the team will not be Allen Lazard or Sammy Watkins, or Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs.  It will be a running back.   

Rodgers intimated as much when he said recently that fifty receptions for both backs is reasonable.  Told of that remark, Matt LaFleur went even further.  “I don’t want to put limitations on that”, he said.  “It could be more than that.  I think it just speaks to the confidence he (Rodgers) has in those guys, not only in the run game but as pass catchers.  It’s pretty unique to have two guys as versatile as those two guys are.” 

Even last season, when the great Davante Adams was still on the team, the player with the second most receptions was Jones.  He caught 52 throws, twelve more than third place Lazard.  Consider also, that Green Bay figures to run the ball more to set up the pass.  Even more opportunities for Jones/Dillon to rack up the stats. 

I do ponder whether the coaches will try to divide the running back work evenly, or if one will emerge more dominant than the other, and if so, which one?   In 2021 it was clear that Jones was still the lead back, and Dillon was the change of pace.  Despite missing two games during the regular season, Jones averaged more yards per carry, was targeted more in the passing game, had more receiving yards and touchdowns, and more catches that resulted in first downs. 

Dillon, however, was coming on strong.  Playing in all seventeen regular season games, he had more rush attempts (187 to 171), just barely more rushing yards (803 to 799), more rushing touchdowns (5 to 4), and more rushes for first down (50 to 37).   

One phrase heard repeatedly from the coaching staff is “we want to put our best eleven guys on the field”.   If that’s true, look for Jones and Dillon to spend a lot of time lining up together.  The Packers have also shown plays where Jones is split out wide as a receiver.  Both players have shown they can be effective not only by catching the ball in the flat, but downfield as well. 

I suspect what we will see this season is Dillon gradually taking over the primary role.  “There’s just not too many backs that size that have those kinds of hands, that are true halfbacks”, LaFleur added.  “You can see some fullbacks that do that, but not halfbacks.”   Meanwhile Jones may be utilized as more of a receiver, sort of a Christian McCaffery type player.  That may also help preserve Jones availability, as he will not have to take as much punishment running the ball through the heart of the defense. 

The age at which running backs are said to decline is thirty.  That is subjective, of course.  Jones will turn 28 in December.  His age is not yet a factor, but his contract might be.  As currently constructed, Jones’ cap hit in 2023 is around $20 million.  It’s hard to see the front office fitting that number into an already cramped 2023 salary cap.  If the team wants Jones to return next year, they will likely have to push some of his money further down the road.   

Then again, if Kylin Hill or Tyler Goodson show the kind of explosion and wiggle that Jones is known for, and also show they can catch the ball, it would not surprise to see Green Bay trade or release Jones, a fan favorite. 

Those are decisions to be made after the season.  For now, just enjoy this tandem.  If both stay healthy, they are going to be a double headache for opposing defenses. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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7 points
 

Comments (22)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
NickPerry's picture

September 05, 2022 at 07:04 am

We saw it several times last season when Jones and Dillon were on the field together and how well it WORKED. There were numerous times my friends here at CHTV asked the same question I had...Why not do it more MLF? We'd see it in a game and it was working and then it was gone, sometimes for multiple games at a time.

I think Dillon will get more carries than Jones, maybe over 100 more. He'll still have at least 40 catches but it will be on the ground where Dillon really earns. Jones will have OVER 70 catches this year. He's picking up where he left off against the 49ers.

I don't think it's a question of who will have a bigger year. Both players if they stay healthy will be HUGE parts of this offense. My hope is they account for at least 2500 yards combined and around 20 TDs. I think this season we look at the POSITION, and not just who's doing it. Both are equally important to the Packers success in 2022.

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NitschkeFromTheGrave's picture

September 05, 2022 at 01:01 pm

100% agreement

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Handsback's picture

September 05, 2022 at 07:32 am

New England won how many SBs w/o a number 1 WR? How did they do it?
Yeah we know it can be done, but MLF isn't BB and AR isn't TB. BUT they CAN replicate the same concepts into their existing system and they have more talent (with Bak and EJ in the fold) than NE did on the offensive side of the ball.
Will they have success doing it is the big question. I think they will. It may not start out very pretty, but I hope we like the final results.
To me, Jones is their best chess piece. He can do so many things that it's hard for a defense to counter. It's like what the 49ers do with Debo but in reverse by using a rb as a wideout. Always a mismatch for the defense. While we know Jones can do it, what other teams will find out this year is that Dillon can do it to...scary.

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murf7777's picture

September 05, 2022 at 09:03 am

“New England won how many SBs w/o a number 1 WR? How did they do it?“.

They did it by being a top 5 defense in almost every SB win. Defense still wins championships.

I agree with how the offense needs to be played out by using quick passing routes, a lot of movement and an occasional big play down field. We have a chance to have a Top 5 D this year and with proper ball control Offense the future looks bright.

Not taking anything away from Dillon as I think Jones and Dillon are complimentary pieces and Dillon is very good. But, as you said Hands, Jones is a big mismatch on the offense, and he will be utilized more this year in the passing game as well as the run. Look forward to seeing more two back sets. Next year will be Dillon’s time to shine big when they probably can’t afford Jone’s contract salary cap hit.

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Bure9620's picture

September 05, 2022 at 01:35 pm

NE also ran the ball very efficiently. Played a lot of 12 and 21 personnel which left defenses in guess mode between run and pass. I think the pony package can create alot of confusion for defenses and potentially create some matchup issues like a linebacker covering Jones or a 180 lb corner having to try and tackle a 250 pound back.

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mrtundra's picture

September 05, 2022 at 07:37 am

I think it is Jones, over Dillon, by a nose, with the bigger stats, this season. GO PACK, GO!!!

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Houndog's picture

September 05, 2022 at 08:55 am

Personally, I have no preference over who does better, and it'd be hard to predict.
Two great backs, two really good men, and both are Packers.
I'm happy with that.

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MooPack's picture

September 05, 2022 at 09:05 am

Whichever stays healthiest.

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RuntheFootball's picture

September 05, 2022 at 09:13 am

For a running backs, their primary role is being able to run the football! The running game in football is about getting just enough yardage based on down and distance. Successful runs (or carries) are a better measurement than avg yards per carry.

As for career statistics, Barry Sanders averaged 5.0 yards per carry and Emmitt Smith averaged 4.2 yards per carry. Barry Sanders would get 40 yds and then 0 yds and 0 yds, but Emmitt Smith would always get 5 or 6 yards on each run. In my mind, Emmitt Smith was a much more successful running back. Running backs should be measured by success and not total yardage or yards per carry. One yard for a touchdown and one yard for a first down could have a bigger impact on a game than one long run of twenty yards.

In the Successful Run Method, each run would be measured by success or failure, so 1 point for success and 0 points for failure on any given run. The system would have no bonus points for a great run and no partial credit for a terrible offensive line. Success would be measure by the down and distance. For 3rd or 4th down, did the runner get enough distance to get a 1st down or touchdown? 1 or 0. For example, 3rd and goal did the runner score? 1 or 0. For 3rd and 8 yards to go, did the runner get a first down? 1 or 0.

For 1st or 2nd downs, did the runner get half the distance to the next 1st down or goal line? 1 or 0. For example on 1st down and 10 yards to go, did the runner gain 5 yards or more? 1 or 0. For example on 1st down and 5 yards to go, did the runner gain 3 yards or more? 1 or 0. For example on 2nd down and 20 yards to go, did the runner gain 10 or more yards?

How this relates to the Packers? My assumption is that Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon could have similar yardage by the end of year. Yet, AJ Dillon could be a much more successful running back by getting the hard yardage on the difficult “money” downs. Let’s focus on percentage of successful runs and devalue yards per carry. Is anybody up for this challenge (Andy Herman)?

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PatrickGB's picture

September 05, 2022 at 10:20 am

And then to complicate things more, what about the offensive line? Are they opening up holes. And then there is the issue of the opposition defense. Are they stout against the run? Do they have a weakness against zone runs vs power runs? When looking at the run game, so much more than the player himself goes ito that.

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Rebecca's picture

September 05, 2022 at 04:01 pm

You contradicted your premise in the second paragraph. “Emmitt Smith averaged 4.2 yards per carry.” And then…” but Emmitt Smith would always get 5 or 6 yards on each run.” If he had a 4.2 ave. then how could he run for 5 or 6 yards each carry? Jeez, who cares? Points scored and turnovers are much more important. Eleven players have to do their part in each successful play.

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LLCHESTY's picture

September 05, 2022 at 05:17 pm

Put Sanders behind Dallas' OL from back then and tell me who would be the more successful RB. I don't think it's close.

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Lphill's picture

September 05, 2022 at 09:26 am

Last season there was still a number of instances where a yard or less was needed and Jones seemed to be in for those plays more than Dillon .

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PatrickGB's picture

September 05, 2022 at 10:03 am

I remember MM not playing Jones much in his first few years. Fans complained that Williams was taking too many snaps over Jones when Jon’s was clearly the superior player. Mike’s answer was that he did not want to wear out Jones. It makes sense now that I look back at it. I expect the same emphasis with Dillon in the backfield as a starter and Jones in relief. As to the two back idea, I do see it happen but not as often as we might suppose. But I do like the idea.

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Since'61's picture

September 05, 2022 at 10:21 am

Jones can score from anywhere on the field. The Packers should get the ball in Jones' hands more than Dillon. I'm not saying that Dillon is not good but he is just not the same threat to a defense as Jones. Dillon is great for pounding away at the defense and wearing them down. He's a solid receiver and he can take some of the load off of Jones but I think that Jones will be the mainstay for the Packers offense this season. He is a mismatch for most defenses and he can break a game open for the Packers.

I'm looking forward to seeing Jones and Dillon on the field at the same time. I think it will force defenses to make choices which the Packers can exploit both on the ground and in the passing game. The 2 back set will go a long way to giving the Packers offense a much needed different look this season. GPG! Thanks, Since '61

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PatrickGB's picture

September 05, 2022 at 11:39 am

I agree about Jones. Yet I see Dillon taking more and more snaps than he did last year. In fact I see him listed as the starter in many games. Jones IS the superior player yet he fits in better as a third down back or the guy who comes in after Dillon wears the defense down. In doing so he might end up with more yards even when relied upon less. So, who is the real #1RB? They both are. 1a and 1a.

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2022 at 01:22 pm

Dillon needs to pick his spots: backs with his punishing style don't have a long shelf life in the league. He can't freight-train down after down. They need him for the stretch run, too.

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Jaqu’eau's picture

September 05, 2022 at 12:16 pm

Flip a coin!

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cpabandit's picture

September 05, 2022 at 02:22 pm

Why are the Packers giving only 1.5 points to Minny. I get home field for Minny but only 1.5 points?

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pack69go's picture

September 05, 2022 at 04:13 pm

Does anyone have a link where you can find out which 4 players from their practice squad the packers protect each week, I believe the notify the league on Tuesdays, but I've been unable to find link that has this info on weekly basis! Any help would bee appreciated!

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 06, 2022 at 03:06 am

I don't know of such a site. I get it from the beat writers sometimes. I looked around and could not find such a site. Perhaps this site might do it, but I don't know if it does.

https://nfltraderumors.co/nfl-practice-squad/

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PhantomII's picture

September 05, 2022 at 09:01 pm

If ML is serious about running out 2-RB's at a time...We need 2 more on the 53. We need Dillon-Taylor and A.Jones-Goodson/ Hill and they could rotate with them and will be trained up for blocking, running and receiving for the playoffs. Maybe when BAK and Jenkins are starting they can adjust the 53/ practice squad to get it started. That is the best fix for our run program this season. Let's see what ML will do.

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