Looking for Prospects That Fit the "Packer Receiver Way"
Vrable knows what a Green Bay wideout should look like.
By KenLass
As the Green Bay Packers try to decide which wide receivers to take in the upcoming NFL draft, and when to take them, one of the most influential voices in the room will be that of Jason Vrable. He is the team’s receivers coach and passing game coordinator. He has been intensely studying a plentiful class of college pass catchers who appear to be first tier prospects. This is his fourth year on the staff. He knows the Matt LaFleur system inside and out. He has spent three seasons working with Aaron Rodgers. He knows what kind of receivers QB12 likes and doesn’t like.
So what is he looking for in a rookie? “What we look for always is someone who will represent the ‘Packer Receiver Way’. There is a standard of toughness and smarts and grit and then overall athleticism. When you watch our tape over the last three years, we try to put our hat on that, more than a guy who just runs fast or maybe does some flashy plays.”
What does that actually look like? Vrable says players such as Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard are perfect examples. They are different in terms of skill set and assignments, but share the same overall qualities. Since the beginning of the Ron Wolf era in the early 1990’s, Green Bay generally likes tall, physical pass catchers who can block. They have seldom put an emphasis on speed. Vrable says every receiver on the team has a specific role, and the Packers will be looking to draft prospects who fit those roles.
What is the single most important thing a young Packer receiver will need to have? “Confidence”, Vrable says. “Typically every team has an elite corner. So you’re going up against guys that, you know, you just have to have that confidence (that you can beat them). I think, for some guys, that takes a little more time than others.” Vrable used second year receiver Amari Rodgers as an example. Asked what Amari needs to do to take the next step, he replied “Just like I talked about, the confidence. I think that’s the biggest thing for him is, how can you go out there and just believe in yourself the way you did at Clemson.”
Speaking of Clemson, Vrable was on the Buffalo staff in 2014 when the Bills drafted Sammy Watkins number four overall out of Clemson in 2014, and no doubt had input in the decision to bring him to Green Bay.
The assistant coach didn’t give away which receivers in the draft class he might be leaning toward. Chances are Green Bay will tab at least one, and possibly two, from a group that includes Drake London, Chris Olave, Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams, John Metchie, Alec Pierce, Christian Watson, Jahan Dotson and George Pickens. Vrable has pored through all of them. “I watch all of the guy’s targets over his career. I study game tape. Watch the combine, watch their all-star games. That way I can feel good about the draft class, where guys are going.”
Of that group, the players who fit the “Packer Receiver Way” profile of recent years are London (6-4, 219), Pickens (6-3, 195), Burks (6-2, 225), and Pierce 6-3, 211). All have just so-so times in the 40. The smaller, speed burners like Williams and Olave have not been the Packers’ preference.
With the possible exception of special teams, the receivers coach may be the most highly scrutinized position coach on the staff in the coming season. Vrable will have to pull together a unit full of rookie draft picks and new veterans, along with returning veterans who have merely played supporting roles in the past. The hole left by the departure of Davante Adams is the size of the Grand Canyon. To put it in perspective, Adams caught 123 passes during the 2021 regular season. All of the other wideouts combined caught a total of 117. The second leading pass catcher was a running back, not a receiver. Aaron Jones caught 52 throws, less than half of Davante’s total.
Vrable chooses to be upbeat about the challenge. “It’s exciting. It’s a test for me. Matt (LaFleur), along with our offensive staff will get these guys up to par, whoever it might be.” His optimism is well founded. The Packers have won the last seven games in a row, and ten of the last thirteen, in which Davante Adams did not play. They haven’t lost a game when they were minus their star receiver since 2018.
Maybe that’s just coincidence. Or maybe it’s because “the Packer Receiver Way” is the perfect formula for success.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (118)
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 07:22 am
“TOUGHNESS. SMARTS. GRIT. ATHLETICISM.” = “The Packer Way.” = Cobb, Lazard, Watkins
“The Packer Way” is missing SPEED. HANDS. ROUTES. YAC. SEPARATION. VERSATILITY. ELUSIVENESS. QUICKS. JET. AVAILABILITY - all in one player. Complete players at the position.
None of those players above offer speed, quicks, YAC, separation, versatility, elusiveness, Jet, availability. The Packers WR Room is more empty than it may appear with the recent signing of Watkins, a signing I really like, btw. We need his veteran mentorship & presence, as with Lazard. We’re stuck with Cobb, a player who’s time has passed.
“Physical pass catchers who can block,” doesn’t necessarily mean “tall.” I keep thinking about this tall thing. Seems to be looking more like a failed experiment in Green Bay, to some degree. All tall WRs require some runway, and nearly all of them don’t offer speed in short areas.
We shouldn’t forget we just lost arguably the best WR in the NFL - a player who was 6-1. He made his mark with QUICKS. SEPARATION. HANDS. ROUTES. SPEED in short areas… and, that took years to develop. There are some in this draft class that literally have it all, but they’re not of the 6-5 variety some fans continue to cling to.
The Packers need to concentrate on adding VARIETY. COMPLETE players who are proven, special. Another tall WR with speed, hands, toughness would be nice, later, not necessarily R1. Alec Pierce would be a great addition for development, and he comes from a more proven field of competition. I think his stripes might be a little more earned than Watson. Balance that with SPEED & TOUGHNESS. YAC. QUICKS.
Nice piece, Ken!
Archie777
April 18, 2022 at 07:53 am
Excellent commentary.
btw - The odds of London falling in this draft went up recently when he refused to get timed in the 40 before the draft - instead telling GMs to look at the tape.
Maybe he should be considered a TE.
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 12:08 pm
Thanks, Archie. Seems to me, London is very much like Allen Lazard, a player we already have. Doesn’t appear to have the speed of Watkins, a player we already have.
This is just the weirdest set of circumstances I can ever recall heading into a Packers draft, being we have to appease Aaron Rodgers… right? Is that not what this is all about? Surrounding him with the picks he trusts/wants???
It’s a scenario that’s highly likely to be true here. Let’s see what they do. The pressure is on to deliver.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 18, 2022 at 02:21 pm
Been saying London TE
He isn't and shouldn't be what Packers are seeking...at least with the first WR selection. We had a 6'5" faster WR in ESB but chose not to use him.
Okayfinedavid
April 18, 2022 at 07:58 am
I dont really see Cobb time having passed. He was crazy productive on 3rd down last year and nabbed some great td catches. I think its more a matter of working him into the offense more. He's definitely not in his prime but I think he's still a great guy to have especially for the money
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 08:07 am
True, Okayfinedavid. I was referring more to his loss of speed, which is noticeable, taking him out as a Jet concept option, and his missing 11 games over his past two seasons due to injury.
Figure, if Cobb & Lazard are on the field, those are two players that defenses won’t have to key on as Jet possibilities. Kind of takes “illusion of complexity,” out the window, or lessens its effect.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 08:26 am
You make a good point: 21 of his 28 catches went for first downs, and his YPC went up. But on 3rd down, the guy I'd be keeping my eye on was 17, not 18. Without Adams and the attention he garnered, this whole passing game looks very different in 2022...and I think this WR group will struggle to uncover on a regular basis as a result of it. Whatever the case, I feel pretty confident in saying that if ARod weren't returning, neither would Cobb.
mrtundra
April 18, 2022 at 08:31 am
I agree, Okayfinedavid, Cobb is still relevant. He was hardly used in the game against the 49ers. Rodgers went directly to Adams, on most passing plays, in that game. Randall in the slot, is a solid weapon.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 10:00 am
He was still hurting and hobbling about in the 49r game and was in slow motion. They ignored him as a decoy.
Coldworld
April 18, 2022 at 08:31 am
You are correct, variety is the key. A varied set of threats increases the challenges for any D as well as permutations in offensive design. A team of Lazard or Cobb types isn’t the answer. From where we are today, we certainly need to add different dimensions.
We would be unwise to view Cobb or Watkins as true answers because history says they will play limited snaps. We need to have depth. I’m starting to think that numbers mean that one pick will need to be a returner with deep speed and height to make this work. I don’t see them giving up on Rodgers, so I think that they will go for perimeter types. Not necessarily what I think we should do but more what I suspect we will do.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 09:06 am
"...so I think that they will go for perimeter types. "
Sadly, that's not really the strength of this WR class. There are a small number of guys who can run who profile this way, but IMO the strength of this class is in guys who need to play a significant number of slot snaps, and who may struggle to hold up physically in a scheme that's likely going to ask them to do more than just get in the way of DBs on run calls.
Coldworld
April 18, 2022 at 10:35 am
I realize it’s not the strength and I think that that fact gets too often overlooked. This draft is not as deep in the types we need.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 09:58 am
No need for lummoxes, they have a chance to snag 2-3 Playmakers w/ 4.3 speed at WR and a couple of TEs to reload the depth chart. The Game has changed. The Packer Way didn't score any points when it counted. They should have tossed that script after the J'mon Moore selection. Refocus, get innovative, get better and Win.
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 10:54 am
ALL THE WAY. If it’s not working, make the necessary changes. Making the same mistakes expecting different results is not a recipe for success.
WestCoastPackerBacker
April 18, 2022 at 11:23 am
I didn't assume they don't want SPEED. HANDS. ROUTES. YAC. SEPARATION. VERSATILITY. ELUSIVENESS. QUICKS. JET. AVAILABILITY , just because they want smarts and grit and athleticism. Davante fit their mold and he had quite a few characteristics on your list. I expect they'll go for plenty of talent to go with grit and smarts.
murf7777
April 18, 2022 at 01:07 pm
GG...yes, too much is made of the 40 time and height. Yes, those matter to an extent, but more importantly, is route running, quickness to get off the line and make cuts, 50/50 catch, body control and ability to catch the ball at a high percentage. I don't care what size they come in for the Packers draft, just be able to do the above.
I've noticed that historically most great WR's are within a couple of inches of 6' tall and don't have track speed. In fact, if anything I think track speed is over drafted and many become busts and fail to meet expectations.
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 05:32 pm
So true., murf. Davante, the one WR we are missing the most, was 6-1 200.
There’s a disproportionate number of Packers fans unwilling to want a WR his size, preferring instead the 6-4 or 6-5 guys who have zero quicks. Zero short area speed, which is entirely different than running a 40. Never mind the toughness aspect of those 5-10 to 6-2 or 6-3. Jordy Nelson was on that top end at 6-3. The guy could do anything.
6-4, 6-5 WRs are entirely different players, with different limitations. If they’re big ones, the punishing behemoths who can block, they’re usually slower. The thinner ones are usually faster, but more brittle, and not the best blockers. To me, they all appear to offer fewer qualities that set the truly greats apart.
Jerry Rice ran a 4.71, to bolster your point, murf.
dobber
April 19, 2022 at 08:28 am
You're about 15 pounds shy on Adams.
glblank24
April 19, 2022 at 04:50 pm
There is one skill needed that you missed, imo. The ability to take the top off of the defense. MVS was that guy in the recent past. Watson has that ability as well.
Postman
April 18, 2022 at 06:51 am
With addition of Sammy Watkins the Packers should swing for the fences. Christian Watson would truly fit the Packers' wide receiver model. The four best receivers drafted by the Packers came from Fresno State, Kansas State, Kentucky and Central Michigan. Not the Power Programs and it 2 years for them to mesh the QB1because the Packers look ahead in the draft. Watson appears to have the greatest upside. Would work on Teams, Tall, Fast, coachable and knows what COLD means.
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 06:58 am
Worst career Drop% in the entire WR class at 12.5%. Limited route tree. No Quicks. Not a blocker. Color me intrigued. Go on…
LambeauPlain
April 18, 2022 at 09:13 am
G&G: Watson only had two drops last year, his most productive season. His QB rating last year when targeted was among the best in the entire WR class at 143. His avg per catch was over 18 yards. And he had 1,142 total purpose yards. Very intelligent, an honor student and very coachable. Huge catch radius and better than 50/50 on contested balls. Don't know about "not a blocker" comment. Never read that about him.
Very versatile. He played outside, in the slot, effective taking handoffs running the ball and would thrive in jets, screens..."illusion of complexity" contributor. And an elite KR and a gunner.
Watson will continue to grow...ceiling is blue sky. He just needs more opportunities. Remember, the potent SDSU Offense ran the ball and gained 2X as much on the ground as through the air! Why pass when you are getting first downs on 1st or 2nd down a majority of the time?
This kid just seems like a Packer.
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 09:47 am
This is who he lit up for a whopping 42 receptions:
Albany W 28-6
Valparaiso W 64-0
Towson W 35-7
North Dakota W 16-10
Northern Iowa W 34-20
Illinois State W 20-0
Missouri State W 27-20
Indiana State W 44-2
SDSU L 19-27
Youngstown State W 49-17
South Dakota W 52-24
Southern Illinois W 38-7
East Tennessee W 27-3
James Madison W 20-14
Montana State W 38-10
Have you looked at those game logs? Where those numbers came from?
I’m sorry, LP, but I place higher value upon R1s, and question taking him R2 over other far better players.
Give me Chris Olave running his buttery routes. Give me Treylon Burks, who also catches everything and is a versatile, more proven YAC demon. Give me Jahan Dotson, possibly the best route runner in this class, with the proven pedigree and résumé against top competition to develop into a true #1WR. Give me Velus Jones, possibly the toughest WR to defend in this class, with the best hands in the class, best YAC, and the FBS current KR leader with 3000 return yards without a single muff, and the 2nd fastest WR at the combine with a 4.31 - again, against Power 5 competition. His 62 receptions just 4 fewer than Burks.
Sometimes it’s best to allow your opponent to make the mistakes.
LambeauPlain
April 18, 2022 at 09:55 am
I would love Olave, Burks, Dotson in the first...but they have to be available. If they are all gone at #28, they have to trust their board. Watson was in GB for visit. I expect he is high on their board.
BirdDogUni
April 18, 2022 at 10:00 am
I understand where you are coming from gg, but the draft is not only about past performance, but projected future potential.
Christian Watson has huge hands. 10 1/8" He's 6' 5" tall. Runs an official 4.36 40, with a 38.5" Vert. When I watch him with the ball in his hands, he looks like a natural carrier of the football, which is unusual with guys that tall.
Could he struggle? Of course, but he could just as easily come in and be a difference maker right away too. I suspect any rookie WR will have to overcome some obstacles, especially with a veteran QB like Rodgers expecting perfection.
I think his floor is MVS and his ceiling could be unlimited. IDK how he will turn out, but I won't bat an eye if Gutey drafts him at 22, 28, 53, or 59...
Someone will draft him, I hope it's Gutey, and I will let him determine where that might be.
Minniman
April 18, 2022 at 02:47 pm
There are absolutely the gems in this WR class to reload this team for the near future. in my humble and unprofessional opinion I see at least 3 different rookie WR pairing (or 3) that could work exceptionally well for the Packers
Per GG's comment above relating to the traits of a WR, I'm not uncomfortable if individually the draftees do not possess all (or many) these attributes (with the exception of speed)....... so long as collectively they can attack every possible route combination on the field.
One thing that is clear is that if a rookie WR comes in and busts out big numbers, it will be because everyone else (OL, RB, TE & WR's) are doing their jobs, not because of individual brilliance on the part of the rookie WR.
As an aside - I love the fact that next years opposing DC's will actually have to do some work....... and not just dust off their same plan from the last 4 years!
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 05:55 pm
Yeah Minniman & BirdDog, I was really just referring to what we should get spending high picks like R1 on a WR. You want a player that has it all selecting one at that spot.
This is nothing against Watson, but more about him being not deserving of such a high selection, when you consider the negatives.
Christian Watson is Ourlads #74 player in their Top 300. He doesn’t even make Athlon’s Top 100. I believe his true value is somewhere in that R3-R4 range. Definitely a lot of hype. The good teams with sound personnel people probably aren’t going to bite R1. Who knows? We’ll see.
A comparable player, Alec Pierce, is Ourlad’s #75, and Athlon’s #91…
I’d love to be able to take him closer to his real value. I can see both players gone by 45-50. Easy.
Gutekunst usually goes the other way, where a player really is value at a given draft slot. Not a reach. He’s been pretty consistent there, with a few misses, which all GM’s make.
blondy45
April 18, 2022 at 05:13 pm
I agree Bird Dog, future potential. I would draft Watson at 59 or later. I would draft Dotson 33 or later. I would draft Burks at 22 or later. I would draft Pierce 92 or a little sooner. I would draft Pickens 53 or later. I want Jalen Tolbert 59 or move to get him before 92. Now will any of these players be available come draft day at these picks, I do not know. We just can't pass up a super Defensive talent at 22 no matter what Rodgers wants. This is still the Green Bay Packers team, not the Rodger's Favorites Clansmen.
croatpackfan
April 18, 2022 at 04:10 pm
"This is still the Green Bay Packers team, not the Rodger's Favorites Clansmen."
You are wrong about this claim...
blondy45
April 18, 2022 at 05:19 pm
Croat unfortunately, you are probably right. I am hoping Gute still has final say, fingers crossed.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 01:03 pm
I love volume WR, especially in college players, and admit that Watson wasn't what you'd call a volume WR. It shows usage, ability to get open, and ability to complete the plays when you're catching 60+ passes. But game flow is pretty important, too, and NDSU won 10 of those games by 3+ scores with a run-first offense (4 guys ran for 600+ yards).
So even though Watson was far-and-away the catch leader on that team, I can see how his numbers lead to a concern over volume. In this case, he's more traits and projection than others, but I like this kid and think he's got a pretty good shot at being a good ball player. He's like the exciting AA player that comes out of spring training and makes the MLB club....does he show he belongs or does he exit with a whimper?
murf7777
April 18, 2022 at 01:12 pm
Good thoughts Dobber and that is why I don't think the Packers should take him. He will need time to develop. He might end up great, but I don't think he will out of the gate. More like a Jordy Nelson timeframe.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 01:05 pm
Who did Jerry Rice compete against @ Miss.Valley State or Andre Reed @ Kutztown State, etc. Players not Programs.
MooPack
April 18, 2022 at 01:29 pm
Or Randy Moss at Marshall.
dobber
April 19, 2022 at 08:29 am
We do not speak of him, here....
Bitternotsour
April 18, 2022 at 08:57 pm
similar arguments were made over Josh Allen, the competition, the lack of quality.
i have no idea how the packers talent evaluators determine who to select. i want a guy who snatches the ball with his hands. MVS bodied WAY too many throws. i want guys who win 1 v. 1, catch contested throws.
i'd like another Javon Walker. sign me up for Sterling Sharpe.
LLCHESTY
April 18, 2022 at 02:25 pm
I agree on the drops but no quicks? 1.48 10 yard split is plenty quick, as is a 6.96 3-cone for a 6'-4" guy. Deebo ran a 7.03 and he looks quick enough to me.
Minniman
April 18, 2022 at 02:58 pm
That was the thing about Davantae Adams, wasn't it - a "pedestrian" 40 time (4.56) and a blazing 3 cone (6.82).
I'd have loved to have seen Olave run the 3-cone drill - on tape he reminds me of Victor Cruz from NYG, moves his hips like a salsa dancer, accelerates through turns.
Coldworld
April 18, 2022 at 08:38 am
Where do you get coachable from? This guy is an athletic freak but he’s extremely raw and wasn’t a huge producer even in division 2. He needs a lot of coaching. The epitome of a high ceiling but low floor pick.
If the focus is this year then it’s a huge stretch to see him contributing. His routes are primitive and limited and he would be playing with Rodgers. I loved him back when he might have gone on the third day, to start on STs as a gunner and learn, but if we are here to win and need catchers this year, he makes zero sense as an early pick.
LambeauPlain
April 18, 2022 at 09:45 am
Watson makes great sense as an early pick. He would be contributing day one on every ST unit as a returner (elite) and a gunner for a unit ranked the worst in the NFL.
He can be used wide, slot, jets, screens, and out of the backfield. I would argue Watson would quickly see an increasing number of snaps and someone Rodgers would begin to target due to his ability to get open and also grab contested catches with his wide radius, leaping and size/strength.
He would contribute in 2022!
He is an honor student and was on the Walter Payton Watchlist for outstanding college O player for 2021...my guess he is very, very coachable and would be a player coaches will love.
Leatherhead
April 18, 2022 at 01:34 pm
I think other guys would be better choices, but he doesn't really make zero sense.
I think the focus is this year, and the future. Whoever we draft is still going to be on their rookie deal after Rodgers is gone.
Coldworld
April 18, 2022 at 02:10 pm
Watson in round 3 would make terrific sense. In round 1 he’s the high upside developmental flyer pick that is not going to help Rodgers this year. Is that what we want? To my mind, now we have Rodgers back it makes no sense to go that route.
dobber
April 19, 2022 at 08:32 am
If you draft a Watson early and bank on him making this team better immediately, you have to have a very specific plan for how to use him and how to get the most out of what he can do right now. That seems to pretty much be drag routes and running past DBs. Guys like that are fairly easy to cover if they don't adjust and grow quickly.
But I think early-to-mid round 2 is where he likely goes as the going rate for a guy with his kind of measurables.
mrtundra
April 18, 2022 at 08:42 am
Olave is, IMO, the best route running WR in this class. I would also look at Watson and Pierce. Jalen Tolbert, while not on a lot of people's radars, is a solid blocking WR, ala Lazard, and could be a pick in round 3 or 4.Tolbert would be good on STs, as well. Metchie III would also be a reliable pick for plays across the middle of the field. Not a burner, but solid there. London will probably be gone by the time #22 rolls around. He is a lot like Lazard, as well. Pickens or Skyy Moore could be there for GB, too. I have not seen much press on Moore or Pickens to know how they would fit in GB. Still, it will be "In Gute we trust" come Draft Day.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 10:39 am
Move up a couple spots for Olave if he's close, then move on Pierce and Skyy. This Packer Way nightmare has to end.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 01:09 pm
"This Packer Way nightmare has to end"
This is a team that's going to need to run the football even more than in the past. Good running football teams block on all levels. "The Packer Way" isn't a mythical figure, it's a player fit for the offense. You can only have so many guys who don't fit...and sadly, GM12 has decided one is Randall Cobb. If you're advocating to shitcan the scheme, that's fine, but they should've cleaned house and started over after 2021, not kicked the can down the road.
That said: I'd give away Cobb for Skyy Moore in a heartbeat at this stage.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 01:24 pm
I concur, but this mythic Packer Way of the Wolf is premised upon having HOF QBs running the show. Jennings is no bigger than Olave. The low-round shuffle gave them a 50/50 guy in MVS they chose not to re-sign. The bait and switch about running the Play Action didn't show up during the Playoffs. I still want TEs trained since freshman year, WRs will a 3.0 grade point as well as speed, Two more OTs so we do not field scrubs during showtime. Milt Hendrickson has added a clear head to the room. I believe they meet the challenge this year and play to win the draft.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 01:27 pm
Geez I hope so.
LLCHESTY
April 18, 2022 at 02:28 pm
I don't think they ever play it not to win, it just looks that way in hindsight sometimes!
jannesbjornson
April 19, 2022 at 01:41 pm
I submit Exhibit A, the 2018 draft. Maybe the One pick to 2019 is the redeeming grace.
murf7777
April 18, 2022 at 01:08 pm
IMO, I think he is a project and will need a few years of development, of which the Packers don't have. I'd pass. When they are in a rebuild, I think he would be a great prospect.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 18, 2022 at 02:28 pm
Actually, while Watson has some upside and intrigue Pickens is better at WR IMO, plus he is ready NOW! Watson will take longer before being ready, but likely better ST's play.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 18, 2022 at 02:29 pm
Duplicate from phone!
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 18, 2022 at 02:35 pm
Postman and Lambeau you both may end up being right about Watson, however....pretty much everyone out there says coming from small school with less competition it will take time for him to develop".
Here is my thing....
Everyone said the same thing about Jordan Love in 2020 draft, yet many are now apparently a savant & think he is a bust after one game. Watson getting a lot of LOVE on here pre-draft. Comical no one can see the similarities even though ARod has basically signed a 2 year contract and the Packers need to win NOW!
NickPerry
April 18, 2022 at 07:16 am
Well let's see, since today is here we have 10 days and counting until the Packers make (Hopefully) their picks at #22 and #28 in the 2022 Draft. This Packers team is a REALLY good team, and with a few lucky breaks, hopefully a run at QB's in round one, the Packers will be able to get their men.
My new obsession has been doing mock drafts on The Draft Network and PFF. I've consistently been able to add 2 WR's, Edge, Safety, and OT in the first 3 rounds and if I do a 4 round mock include TE and or DL in that mix.
Whatever the Packers "Type" is, my hope is Gute keeps nailing his 1st and 2nd round picks as he's done pretty much of the time since he's been here. I know, I know, the likelihood of Gute absolutely nailing those first 4 picks are slim. But I do believe he'll be able to add to those positions I've mentioned above with good ATHLETIC football players who'll not only add to this years 2022 Packers team, but also to those in 2023 and 2024, when the Packers IMO will win two SB in a row and Rodgers will retire.
Damn the "Type"! Just go out and get as many good young players who can not only help this year, but years after when you give out 2nd contracts. That's when you know you've hit on your "Type".
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 07:52 am
" I know, I know, the likelihood of Gute absolutely nailing those first 4 picks are slim. "
With the cap outlook the Packers' brass has nailed this team to, it puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the scouting department--even more so than in other years--to get these picks right. You obviously want to get them right every year, but even with the cap expansion that's expected after 2023, the Packers are pushing out so much hit into that time that they'll be non-competitive on the FA market relative to other teams who have shepherded their caps more.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 07:47 am
Keep coming back to the comments made by Murphy that this was going to be an exciting draft (and it's just not clear if he also meant the run-up leading to the draft, too), and it makes me nervous that the Packers are going to go for a big round-one trade-up (with the guy I absolutely DON'T want them dealing big capital for, Garrett Wilson, being the target). I think this is a draft where they could do very well staying put in the first round, and using those other 9 picks go jockey for position.
Depending on which draft value chart you like, the two Raiders picks (for Adams) packaged together net you a pick in the 10-13 range. I wonder if Packer management is thinking of those picks as found money...?
Archie777
April 18, 2022 at 08:00 am
I had been thinking GB would make a big trade up but as the draft nears my feeling has changed. I now think that if they trade up it will be a small trade up (only a few slots). And, if there is a run on WRs like there was when Gutey traded up for Love, my feeling says he will pass on a WR in R1 altogether and either trade down from 28 or up from 53 or 59 to get one. Which he probably should have done in the Love draft.
T minus 10 days and counting.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 08:07 am
Your interpretation seems sound...Gute doesn't have a track record of letting the draft come to him. I don't expect that to change this time 'round.
Coldworld
April 18, 2022 at 08:47 am
I think it’s fair to say that letting the draft come to him is a particularly difficult concept to realize when the team is in a position in which it has to source players for this year almost exclusively via the draft.
That means specific holes must be accounted for and player readiness is crucial. Both act against sitting back and picking on traditional best value available assessed on career potential. It tends to promote jumping around for specific targets and in a way that departs from most “expert” predictions.
Last year was not nearly as extreme, but I think Gute did rather well picking for early contribution. Let’s hope he can again this year.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 08:59 am
I think last year they hedged their bets early by picking higher-floor guys from high-end programs who have played a lot of football. They were known quantities...at least in their college play. Maybe not as exciting because the ceilings might not be viewed as highly, but safer picks on guys who you know can play. I think you're right in that I wouldn't be surprised if they go the same route this year.
murf7777
April 18, 2022 at 01:21 pm
CW, great comments about this year's draft. It doesn't lend itself to draft and develop. They need contributors now, not a year or two down the road. Different philosophy this year IMO.
HawkPacker
April 18, 2022 at 08:06 am
Dobber, I really hope the packers do not bundle picks to move up in the 1st round.
If you look at the early picks we have, we can put ourselves in position to be very strong in the future, even with CAP issues. I think we need 2 possibly 3 WR's in this draft but no more than 2 in the first 2-3 rounds. We could use a few more early round picks to get fill all the positions of current and near future needs. These are WR, of course, DL, Edge, TE, OL and safety. If we get the right players now, they will be ready to go in a year or two and hopefully get some help now. If we have to get rid of a few of our studs on large contracts in a couple of years, that would be fine and I have to believe the FO is thinking about this in the upcoming draft.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 08:15 am
I tend to favor a more conservative approach to the draft--especially this year where the Packers have more capital in the early rounds than we've seen in some time. Let the board come to you and watch for unique opportunities (sliding players). Manufacturing that kind of opportunity (a big trade-up for a player the Packers covet pre-draft) feels unnecessarily expensive. So, yeah, I think we're in the same place, here.
LambeauPlain
April 18, 2022 at 10:15 am
I agree...especially since the draft has such a deep class of Edge, WRs, OL, and DBs. With the depth at those positions, it plays to the Packers.
In any move, I would prefer to see a trade down at #28 for another 2nd and 3rd if their board is still looking strong for the 2nd & 3rd rounds.
Where will the run come on Day 1...Edge, WRs, OL? Packers will get a talented player(s) pushed down to them from all 3 positions. Sitting tight this year can provide a high ROI, I think.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 01:14 pm
It is a deep class, but if you think they will be hanging around even into the mid-second round, you may be disappointed. So many teams have multiple selections in the first and second rounds. Some are stocked into the 3rd to 6th rounds. The choices really have to hit home and the blue chips are on the top.
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 08:17 am
It seems all splash with no smarts, should they do such a thing.
Many scouts have openly stated that this draft does not contain those clear cut, consensus #1 nor #2 overall WR1 talents found in other drafts previously.
If Gutekunst does this, I’ll question, “What the hell’s going on out there?”
This draft is DEEP in a variety of prime talents, which is what GB needs. Not just one guy, who there’s still no consensus on…
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 08:31 am
People point to the Love pick as being the defining moment in BG's time as GM for the Packers, but a trade-up of that sort (two 1s for a top 7 pick) in this draft would likely be more significant and polarizing--especially if the pick bombs or plays a secondary position. If you move up that way, it's because a guy you have as far-and-away the best player in this draft just slid into range (for some reason)--and he plays a position of need. And he's healthy. As you state, I don't know if that player exists in this draft.
Coldworld
April 18, 2022 at 09:04 am
There are an awful lot of what I believe are 1/2 and 2:3 value receivers. Players that have some great film but also some questions over speed, strength, short area etc. Another problem is that there are an awful lot of slot types in that group.
Having kept Cobb and drafted Rodgers, I just don’t see us going there or being able to fit slot types on the roster. We also have Lazard who plays a lot over the middle. The chances are our pool is much smaller than a lot here seem to think in my opinion. This draft class really asks the question whether we should have kept Cobb.
That increases the risk that a run on those makes us trade up if we do have a true first round value on a player. A lot depends on what others do. They basically have to get 2 contributing receivers capable of perimeter play. How many do they truly rate highly and how many are still on the board by the late terms and then mid 20s?
If the draft starts to thin them out then I think our lack of cap may result in us feeling that we have to burn capital in a draft where I think better value may be there at another position and also would ordinarily suggest we win by trading back.
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 09:19 am
Lost in this conversation is we are not just 2 capable, dynamic WRs away from winning it all, or even being in that conversation. OT, EDGE, 3-Tech, S, ILB, TE… all call out for upgrades, along with KR/PR.
Neither Garrett Wilson nor Jameson Williams addresses KR duties. We need picks to fill those spots with the best talents available.
Barnes? Upgrade.
OT? We need 2 of them!
EDGE? Again, add 2…
TE? More questions than answers. Add 2…
S? Add one.
3-Tech??? …OMG.
But, yeah, let’s trade away the top half of our draft… ugh. No thanks.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 10:26 am
Depends what you get on the moves. A move down from #22 nets a few more in the second and third+.
I expect him to focus on the film, not the NFL Network Sideshows. He has the ability to move all over the first three rounds and add picks. Still two WRs w/4.3-4.4 parameters. The TEs are a necessity. TWO OTs, the safety will be there in the third or fourth. Five tech over the three tech for the pass rush. Could be Winfreey at #28. The Group Neurosis seems to ruminate over the idea of picks for Metcalf or Lockett. I do not believe they are desperate enough to go down the Dan Devine tunnel into a head on with the Empire Builder.
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 11:08 am
Winfrey at #28 makes one hell of a lot of sense.
My thing, is getting Velus before KC does. He’s the perfect replacement for Tyreke Hill, and if others can’t see the value I’m sharing here, I guess they haven’t watched his tape, looked at his numbers, looked at all the articles written about him and his history. TEN also targeting him…
Forget the draft industry missing on him. NFL Personnel Departments haven’t…
I’d take Velus at 22 if he’s there and not look back. The guy is legit R1 talent. It also gives us a real shot at Perrion Winfrey at 28.
justjan
April 18, 2022 at 11:58 am
Velus at 22? You must not have read about his drops.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 01:35 pm
Probably a fourth round shot, maybe Andy Reid goes for him in the third with his draft capital. #22 may not be valid given his age.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 18, 2022 at 12:52 pm
Garrett's the only receiver in this class whos actually worth a 1st round pick. If theyre going to force the issue at receiver, he's the guy to go after.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 18, 2022 at 02:41 pm
Dobber,
Personally, I don't want to see any of those first 2 round picks traded unless there is a move up earlier in round 2 to snag a top WR who fell into round 2. No draft pick trades for a veteran WR like Metcalf, or Lockett!
Packers need to infuse youth at the WR & TE position.
PackEyedOptimist
April 18, 2022 at 08:12 am
Good article Ken, but I'm not sure why you think Jameson Williams is "small" when he's 6'2" and 190 pounds. I personally think the Packers see him as the best "Packers WR" in this class after he recovers from his ACL.
Pickens checks all the boxes, but his personality clashes with coaches could easily knock him way down for the Packers--MLF is a strong believer in "locker room fit" (I think that's why Keke is gone).
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 08:19 am
I'm hearing more and more that teams--especially teams with multiple first round picks, and picking early in the draft--aren't discounting Williams, and that he'll go much higher than people were anticipating shortly after he got hurt. The medicals and his rehab will say a lot, but if the Packers packaged picks to move up for Williams? Well, these boards would likely explode.
Coldworld
April 18, 2022 at 09:10 am
What we need this year and what many teams are looking for may be rather different. If Williams is, for the sake of argument, as good as his boosters assert, in an ordinary year, we’d look at his rookie contribution as nice but a relatively small factor in his value and attractiveness. This year the Packers likely have to be much more concerned about year 1 than they would normally and others likely are.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 10:35 am
He couldn't break the OSU lineup. I would pass on him.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 01:20 pm
First off: injury is a problem in terms of draft position and the "Packer window.' So, I don't take him at 22 and maybe not even at 28..
Secondly: OK, he didn't see a path to the field at OSU. He didn't transfer down to a directional U or to a 1-AA school like other guys do, he went to 'Bama and played in the SEC---which is significantly better that the Big Ten. He came in, beat the field, and was the alpha dog at 'Bama. I think it speaks volumes that he had a monster year without being part of a three-headed monster (Olave, Wilson, Smith-Njigba (who was better than Wilson and Olave)) in that setting to draw coverage.
For me, the OSU thing isn't a problem. The injury is the problem.
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 08:35 am
If Gutekunst exhibits some patience, grabs a healthy WR who can contribute early this season with the #22, and waits for Williams at the #28, I could see it making some sense. Or maybe they pop him at #22, and choose another healthy player with 28 at WR.
No trade ups for an injured player, please.
Yes, Williams is my choice between he & Pickens, and Jameson would hopefully become an important part of the teams’ future success, eventually. I’d look a year out for that.
Really don’t like us drafting injured players, period. Certainly not trading up for them.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 08:35 am
You make a good point in that the Packers could see that #28 as a 'shot-at-greatness' pick if they get their guy at #22. I don't know if I'd have the guts, given the circumstances, to free-wheel it that way...but I think you need to get your guy first and feel really good about what you get at 22 to use 28 that way.
This just has the feel of a "future-defining" draft. I'm glad I don't have to make these calls.
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 08:49 am
Exactly. While 28 isn’t 22, it’s still a first round pick. I’d rather we use both selections on healthy players who can contribute Day 1.
Burning one of those on a WR coming off recent ACL surgery assumes great risk.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 10:46 am
Injury-risk guys in rounds four-seven.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 18, 2022 at 08:37 pm
Jameson is my #1 WR choice and Pickens is my #2 but they are close IMO.
The only other WR I really like is Garrett but no way he is around and available, so I don't ever consider him.
Get me either Jameson, or Pickens or both. That would be absolutely crazy and unbelievable if that happened.
Otherwise, if unavailable go all out and get Khalil who I am nuts over. Everyone wound love this guy. Josh Johnson is also surprisingly good and not rated high. Lastly, I still would love to add Calvin Austin.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 18, 2022 at 02:44 pm
PEO,
Totally agree with you about William's and Pickett! Was with you all the way until you didn't include Aaron Rodgers as one of the players clashing with team.
MooPack
April 18, 2022 at 08:27 am
Ok, so lets focus on everyone’s No. 1 need – WR.
I suggest checking out this article on WR WROPS-RAS-WRAPS (similar to MLB OPS stats).
It was an eye opener for me.
https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/nfl-draft-2022-packers/2022/4/9/23017...
The first graphic is WROPS for those receivers with 50+ catches. Basically production. So you won’t see Watson, because he had 43. And that’s because he was in a RUN First offense. Jameson Williams is at the top for a reason. He is the top WR in the class.
The second graphic is WRAPS (WROPS + RAS). Production, not just 50+ catches, plus athletic ability. You won’t see Jameson Williams since he got hurt and didn’t test. Christian Watson is at the top for a reason. His athletic ability is off the charts and what he did with fewer catches blows many others away, except for Williams.
The third graphic is the supposed big board PFF rankings and their above scores. Personally I think too much weight is given to WR’s that come from the big programs and perceived competition. Happens every year, and yet tier down schools produce some very good to great players.
What is also talked about is those they believe are overrated because of these scores. I was high on Dotson, but my attitude starting changing even before reading this. Now he is off my personal board. The others I had already believed were overrated. Stats can lie, or they don’t, but other reasons can factor in to their production.
1. Justyn Ross
2. Johan Dotson
3. Drake London
4. David Bell
These are my current best options on WR the Packers could have a shot at in the first couple rounds:
1. Jameson Williams – He is hurt so is off my draft list, but in a year, two big thumbs up.
2. Christian Watson – I really, really think people were sleeping on him, but he is rising. Best WRx.
3. Chris Olave – Needs to gain upper and lower body strength and about 10+ lbs.
4. Alec Pierce – Close to Watson, but with less agility.
5. George Pickens – Smaller hands and possible coachability issue, but talent is there.
6. Treylon Burks – Torn on him. Slower and less agility, but get ball in his hands and he is A+.
7. Jalen Tolbert – Production is there with a little less agility, WR2.
My best one-two draft punch would be Watson and Tolbert, if they take two WR 1-3 rds.
What WR position is the greatest Packers need?
The big, fast spilt end to beat the jam and with speed to take the top off the defense, like LaFleur said. The one that will make the safety go ‘Oh Crap’ I need to roll over to help the corner. That opens center field for the other receivers/TE . That’s most often WR-x, not flanker -z, not slot. Not many teams have a really good split end. There are fewer of them and why they are coveted. That’s Christian Watson. He’s gonna draw flags. I rank the best WRx as Watson, Pierce, Pickens in that order. If you think you can get him past #28 you will be very disappointed.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 08:54 am
That's a really interesting article. It casts several of these higher-end pass-catching prospects in a very different light. I find that some of the usage of analytics in football is misleading, though. Analytics have taken over baseball, but baseball is still mostly a matchup sport (hitter v. pitcher) in a team format, and in this era of swing-and-miss ball where situational hitting is as poor as it has ever been, probably more defining than it's ever been (and, frankly, ruining the sport).
I don't think football is nearly as definitive, especially when it comes to secondary positions like WR and TE where usage, scheme, quality of play by the OL/QB, and game-script define an awful lot what they do and how they're used on the field. I think there are indicators of success, but I don't put too much on the analytics because they don't do anything to project into other fits or schemes--especially going from college to the NFL.
"What WR position is the greatest Packers need?
The big, fast spilt end to beat the jam and with speed to take the top off the defense, like LaFleur said. The one that will make the safety go ‘Oh Crap’ I need to roll over to help the corner."
Yup, yup, and more yup. They might think they have a stopgap for a year in Watkins as they look for that guy, but this is an immediate and long-term need for this offense. The LaF offense is predicated on making a defense defend not just sideline-to-sideline, but LOS to goal line...they lost a big piece of that last year when MVS got hurt.
MooPack
April 18, 2022 at 09:50 am
Analytics isn't the end-all-be-all, but I believe it's a good indicator for success. The chances are higher for those that have it as opposed to those that don't.
I like this quote from the article:
All of that said, WRAPS still poses an important question to every scout. “If you weren’t productive in college, and you’re not that athletic compared to your peers, why should we like this you?” Sometimes there is a good answer to this question...
Coldworld
April 18, 2022 at 10:42 am
I thought it was an interesting perspective. Like all metrics, it’s a flag to look harder rather than a certain prediction, of course. It’s certainly one that made me ponder a little harder.
HarryHodag
April 18, 2022 at 08:32 am
It's a crap shoot who will be available when the Packers select. But don't be surprised if Gute trades some draft picks to move up and get one of the top tier receivers. They need a player who can contribute on day 1 of the season. Watkins has a history of injury. Lazard is a potential find as the #2 receiver but can't do it alone. Cobb/Rodgers in the slot will catch some.
There's always the potential shock that the Packers don't draft a receiver in the first round. Most draftniks(I include myself) tend to make mock drafts based on need. But drafting the top player, regardless of position, is always the NFL front office policy. That is how Aaron Rodgers ended up in Green Bay.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 08:39 am
I think people oversell Lazard. He's a smart, try-hard guy--don't get me wrong, as a UDFA, he was a steal--but I think he's best cast as a 3rd WR/possession/3rd down guy, and he'll be exposed more without a guy the caliber of Adams playing across from him. Maybe a healthy year and playing well will make Watkins someone opponents fear, but he's not going to draw attention the way 17 did, even if he gets off to a blistering start.
Packer_Fan
April 18, 2022 at 08:48 am
I like the Watkins signing. Fills part of the void after Adams left. But the Pack need to add WR talent. No long term plan without them. I think that Gute should sign two WR's in the first three rounds. I am not up on every WR, but pickimg Burks or Perkins seem to fit the mold. Not Olave. And then they should pick Watson from North Dakota to spread the field.
Here is my take. I think that Gute should trade down one of the first round draft picks with a fourth round pick for a early second and third round picks. That gives six picks in the first three rounds. Then with the two WR;s, pick a IDL, Edge, ILB and a TE. Then a tackle with the fourth round.
My thoughts are get defense help. We have good starters, but need depth and long term help. And what we need to happen in the playoffs is have Bak and Jenkins starting at the tackle positions.
greengold
April 18, 2022 at 09:03 am
Love it, Packer_Fan. There is ENORMOUS talent available from R2-R4, especially early in those rounds, where we don’t have picks. Gathering picks ahead of both KC and CHI should be considered, as they both want what we want. Here are some good options to address that:
28 to NYJ for 35 111, 146
28 to NYJ for 38, 111, 117
22 to NYG for 36, 67
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 09:08 am
I really don't like the idea of trading down out of 22.
LambeauPlain
April 18, 2022 at 10:30 am
Sit tight or trade down at #28. There will be many talented prospects at both spots, but more talent at #22, obviously. But most likely at WR, Edge, OL. All depends how the Packer Draft Board cooperates.
dobber
April 18, 2022 at 01:25 pm
Yep. I can see going down from 22 to 24 or 26 if you're looking at a tier of players you really like and know some will still be available in 2-3 picks, but going down 15+ picks seems like a risky strategy when you need play-ready guys, even if it nets you extra second day selections.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 01:44 pm
It would have to be for a Ransom's Haul.
stockholder
April 18, 2022 at 10:08 am
I have Confidence. And All I trust, I leave my heart to.-... It has nothing to do with Confidence. Vrable is feeding you BS. I saw the improvement in Adams. The cuts, The work, The Routes. He wanted the ball. When you don't. You look around and feel stupid. YOU LET YOUR TEAMMATES DOWN. And get Bitched at. We don't draft anybody because of confidence. We see concentration, and the physical tools that made them special. And if you don't see that. They're a mistake! Someone has to face the music. Finding the "Packer Type" can be an illusion. ( Especially when you look at the history of injuries behind the name. ) It's all about NEED, when you draft a position. ( Not Fools Gold). So which of these WRs fit our "Needs". 1. Speed. 2. hands. 3. Durability. 4. Smarts. Thats a lot more than Confidence. And since I'm old school. The "Packer Type" means Fearless. The heart can't be trusted. The production of a player is the measurement of what to expect. Take the draftee has it all.
stockholder
April 18, 2022 at 09:56 am
Since it's mock Draft Monday.
#22. Jameson Williams. WR Alabama- Worth the shot? - IMO-YES!
#28. Christian Watson WR. ND state.
#53. Bernhard Raimann OT Central mi.
#59. Leo Chanal. LB. WI.
#92. Kingsley Enagbare. DE. SC
#132. Darrian Beavers LB. Cinn
#140. Carson Strong QB. Nevada
#171. Matt Araiza. P SD State
#228. Tycen Anderson S Toledo
#249. Micah McFadden LB. Indiana
#258. Tyquan Thornton WR Baylor
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 12:48 pm
No viable offers to move down from the first and retained a defensive and an offensive player on the options.
Tough call on #28 as Watson will be gone @ #29. I would still lean to picking him in real terms as they can hunt DE later. Pierce off at 39, Pickens 34, Skyy at 60.
#22 Olave Wr thought he would be gone.
#28 Winfrey Dline, five tech.
#41 Mc Bride TE( #53 ,132 and a 2023 3rd=high fourth to SEA)
#59 Abe Lucas RT
#92 A.Taylor CB dime guy and a gunner
#140 Gunter Edge
#171 Z White RB
#188 Munford OG ( #258 and 2023 5th comp to Jags)
#211 K.Barnes CB 4.23 ( #228 and 249 to Rams)
#221 Horvath FB ( 2023 5th comp)
Teams with multiple picks have to be maneuvered around. Some will have a boatload and they can poach some after cut-downs for P squad depth.
stockholder
April 18, 2022 at 01:14 pm
I'm not a fan of Olave or Winfrey. I'd take Travis Jones first. If they don't get Watson by #28. They won't get him. And I'm still a fan of Burks @22. Durability is priority #1. Williams was just my gamble.
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 01:54 pm
Speed Kills. Winfrey with the 4.89 40 and wide wingspan. Not looking for another NT. Want a guy to go 3 to six tech and bring pass rush skills. Olave is just too smooth for people to see. One scout compared him to Tory Holt. He has shown the evidence for three years running against top competition and has played in the return game.
LaFleur should watch some of Day's offense.
LLCHESTY
April 18, 2022 at 02:41 pm
Agree on Winfrey, I think he has the most upside at 3T of anybody in the draft. 10 sack a year potential. But Jones is more than just a NT. He has the length to play 5T and played 3T more than 4 times as much as NT last year. I could see him come in and get snaps at all three IDL spots as a rotational piece and maybe as a 5T starter.
I just hope they grab one of Jones, Winfrey or Hall.
stockholder
April 18, 2022 at 04:04 pm
Not Arguing Winfrey would fit the packers DL. I'm only saying Jones will be better. Better push. Always faced Double teams. Has a lower pad level. He does tire. And thats when he gets into trouble. But he can play outside. He's got the feet to do it.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 18, 2022 at 08:40 pm
Would I complain if they took Jameson and Watson with first 2 picks, but doesn't make sense. They are too similar doing the same things well. Need the 2nd receiver to be like Dotson, Moore, or Khalil IMO!
beerandbrats
April 18, 2022 at 10:39 am
The Packers are in a tough spot because 3-4 receivers could be off the board before we get to 20. Ideally, the Packers use lower round picks to put together a trade package to move up if need be. I would really like to see the Packers use their top 4 picks to draft 4 players in the first two rounds. 4 players who can contribute immediately!
Gibsonsupreme
April 18, 2022 at 01:15 pm
While this is absolutely accurate in terms of what is a Packers receiver historicaly, you have to remember that this offseason Matt Lafleur said that they wanted to add speed to the WR room. It was a public message to his GM. Since Gutey and Lafleur seems to work very well together, one might think that they could be looking for a different kind of receiver this time around.
murf7777
April 18, 2022 at 01:36 pm
It also could mean that they want Burks and are throwing a smoke screen on the 4.3 guys. This is the time where teams play games with each other and don't really talk honestly about what they truly desire. Why would a HC or GM do that?
jannesbjornson
April 18, 2022 at 01:56 pm
If they really want to blow the Fan's Minds, they can trade for Deebo Samuel.
LLCHESTY
April 18, 2022 at 02:44 pm
Burks is far from slow.
https://twitter.com/HAFFnHAFF_TPL/status/1515715932123025415?t=frrZa7WQl...
murf7777
April 18, 2022 at 03:15 pm
That is very true, but he ran a 4.55 at the combine. I watch his game speed and he is as fast as you need. Never getting caught from behind and can create separation.
dobber
April 19, 2022 at 08:43 am
I agree. People want to pigeonhole him based on his 40-time, but the dude can run. He's not a straight-line burner, but he has good vision and doesn't often get caught with the ball in his hands. He's what Laviska Shenault was supposed to be.
MooPack
April 19, 2022 at 04:22 am
The difference between 4.3 and 4.5 40 is 1.8 yards (5.4 ft). That's actually quite a bit of space to drop a pass into. Even at the splits you're going to be an arms length away. That's all you need. Granted you have to beat the jam, if there is one, but then you have to think about a CB having to turn his hips and try to keep up. Only the best DB's can do that against tremendous speed or they are sitting 5-10 yds off the receiver at the snap. And I'm guessing most CB's aren't going to try and jam a bigger 4.3 guy much or they are toast on a whiff. That is most significant for the WR-x position that runs the majority of the Go routes. 40 times may be overrated on most positions, but on WR-x, I don't think so. That's the one position where you are a definite advantage. A lot of CB's that can't match that speed are going to try to grab at the WR to slow him down. I'll take a flag any day. Luckily Packers have a couple of really fast outside CB's.
The other WR positions, not so much. I'll take quickness agility.
Check out the 40 yd dash simulcam from the combines. It's a game of inches.
dobber
April 19, 2022 at 08:44 am
"The other WR positions, not so much. I'll take quickness agility."
I tend to agree. It's not how fast you run, but how quickly you get to speed.
NoNonsense
April 18, 2022 at 04:21 pm
Sadly I think there won't be a WR worth pick 22 left and if you don't take one at 28 the Chiefs will.
I see George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, Boye Mafe or Perrion Winfrey at 28. I'd might be a little bit of a reach for any of them but don't want to take the chance they are all gone by 53.
A trade down from 28 is probably our best bet but not sure anyone wants to give up 2nd or 3rd round picks in this draft.
Here's a decent thought, KC trades 29 and 30 to GB for 22 and a 2023 3rd rounder. (Value chart? Gotta be close) GB picks 28th, 29th, and 30th.
greengold
April 19, 2022 at 06:37 am
It might be good, unless KC were to take Velus Jones Jr.… ha!
Your bringing up KC is interesting, as VJJ is their perfect replacement for the loss of Tyreke Hill. Keyshawn Johnson (USC Alum) made mention of this recently, where drafting the former Trojan R1 is their top goal, and to me, the same player should be our top target as well at WR.
They will be watching us, daring us to not take him. KC has 6 picks in the first 3 rounds. They might try to package to jump ahead of our 22.
Just fyi, the trade is a bit wonky, but this makes it close:
22+53+93 = 1296 pts to KC for 29+30+135 = 1298.5 pts