Odds Are Against Packers Finding Impact Rookie in 2026 Draft
With no 1st round pick, Green Bay's chances of drafting a rookie capable of making an immediate impact are slim.
By markoldacres

Around this time last year, I wrote about the idea that chasing ‘impact’ rookies is a fool’s errand and is not something with which to measure the quality of a team’s drafting ability.
In that article, I detailed how only 32 of 257 drafted players achieved a PFF grade of 70 or higher as a rookie, with the 70 mark representing an above average player.
That was a rate of just 12.5%, and after removing the players whom the Packers could not have drafted as they were taken before Green Bay’s 1st round pick, the rate fell to just 9%, with just 21 out of 235 rookies drafted from pick 23 onwards playing at an above average level.
This year’s update brings the unlikelihood of finding impact rookies into even sharper focus.
Last season there were only 26 rookies who played enough snaps to qualify for PFFs rankings and earned a grade of 70 or higher out of 257 draft picks. That is a rate of just over 10%, and means on average, not every team in the league had even one above average rookie.
Green Bay did have one rookie to hit the 70 mark, which was their 1st round Pick Matthew Golden. While he did not have as big of a role in the offense as he may have hoped, the quality of his play when given opportunities was high, and bodes well for 2026 and beyond.
As was the case in 2024, many of those players (9) were not even available to the Packers as they were picked before they were on the clock at number 23 overall.
The rookies picked ahead of Golden who did not clear 70 were Cam Ward, Travis Hunter, Will Campbell, Mason Graham, Mykel Williams, Kenneth Grant, Tyler Warren, Shemar Stewart, Grey Zabel, Emeka Ebguka (despite his strong counting stats), Jahdae Barron and Derrick Harmon.
As we spin forward, there is now there is a new factor to throw into the mix in that the Packers do not have a 1st round pick this year, or indeed next year.
That changes the calculus once again in a negative way for Green Bay. As hard as it is with a 1st rounder, the odds are now even more stacked against them in terms of finding a rookie who is capable of hitting the ground running.
Not only are the Packers not picking until the 2nd round, but their selection does not come until 52 overall. In 2025, only 9 rookies picked at 52 overall or later posted a PFF grade of 70 or better. The hit rate there is just 4.4%.
That doesn’t mean Green Bay can’t find a hidden gem, as they have done in the past in the later rounds. Evan Williams had a 72.3 grade as a 4th round rookie just two years ago, while Dontayvion Wicks put up a grade of 77.8 in his first season after being a 5th round pick.
But it more decisively drives home the point that if the Packers are going to get over the hump and back to the Super Bowl in 2026, it will much more likely be due to existing young players taking a step, free agent additions hitting, and better injury luck, rather than the impact of a rookie.
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres
__________________________




Comments (36)
Packers0808
March 30, 2026 at 01:28 pm
Its been done on numerous occasions all over the league in years past! Why not again.?
Since'75
March 30, 2026 at 02:38 pm
Yea, it's been done.
There is nothing to say it can't be done.
But perspective....the odds aren't with you, like the title stated.
Even when you have 1st round picks.
Off the top of my head, our top draft picks that made a rookie year difference in recent history, were #1 round pick Alexander, and 2nd rounder Elton Jenkins.
Both of which, are no longer with the Firm.
Under Guter...i just don't see any other rookie impactful seasons in the last 8 drafts 🤷♂️
SicSemperTyrannis
March 30, 2026 at 07:10 pm
So you're saying there's a chance?
golfpacker61
March 30, 2026 at 01:47 pm
I would disagree on finding an impactful rookie this year, in fact I think we could find multiple players who could actually start or play alot in 2026. I think there are multiple positions that if we select the right players, they could play right away. The 2 position groups are Edge and CB. First, the Edge position group is missing 3 guys that played alot of snaps last year, and the guys behind them contributed very little, not that they couldn't though. I have identified a player that could start @ Edge day 1 in GB, Dani Dennis-Sutton. He has all the tools, size, speed, rush technique, and pedigree from starting 3 years @ Penn State. And he is projected to be available into the 3rd round. Some other Edges that could start right away are Gabe Jacas, Malachi Lawrence, Zion Young & Derrick Moore, so there are multiple options into the 3rd round.
CB is the second group that could see immediate playing time, and there are a nice group that could be available in the 2nd & 3rd round. My favorite is Davison Igbinosun, if you can beat out the competition in the Buckeye DG room, you are usually good enough to compete in the NFL right away. If a team needs a CB or WR they can't go wrong selecting 1 from Ohio State.
Other solid CBs who could be available from #52 to #102 would include Chris Johnson, Julian Neal, Will Lee, Malik Muhammed, Tredan Stukes, Keionte Scott, Tacario Davis, Daylen Everette, Charlie Demmings, & Devin Moore. It's a really good year to add multiple CBs in the draft, even later in the draft. The bottom line is that even though we jettisoned the worthless Hobbs and added a solid CB in ST Juste, our CB room is really lacking talent. That's why a good CB could play alot right away.
Anyone we draft for the OL, LB, WR, TE position groups could play, but not an impactful amount unless injuries happen again. Yes we need a solid NT but even if we draft 1 he isn't going to play more than 30% of the time. I think we will sign a FA after the draft, maybe Calais Campbell.
The only thing that would change my thinking on immediate playing time for an Edge would be if we signed a solid FA like Clowney to a 1 year deal, which I would be thrilled about if after the draft so no loss of comp pick.
calabasa
March 30, 2026 at 02:16 pm
Agreed. I bet we play a lot of rookies this year.
Since'75
March 30, 2026 at 02:40 pm
That's a lot of 'IF's'.
Or as i call....silly season.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 30, 2026 at 07:13 pm
Harsh, calling Hobbs "worthless." He's a slot corner, we needed a boundary. Swing and a miss by Gutey.
TKWorldWide
March 30, 2026 at 01:53 pm
I think we are all accustomed to rookies needing “time to figure it out”, but I wonder…if GB was desperate for receiver help, could they have “forced” Golden in there? And how would he have fared? Maybe I’m too ignorant to know better, but it seems to me he could have contributed a lot more.
There are opportunities at several positions this year. Let’s have at it!
I believe I speak for the masses when I say “please, no high RAS projects!”
greengold
March 30, 2026 at 02:53 pm
Golden definitely could have done more if he had been given the opportunities. It wasn't a problem with Matthew Golden. It probably had more to do with the relationships Jordan Love had previously established with other players.
Doubs led the team with 55 rec/85 targets.
Watson 35 rec/55 targets
Wicks 30 rec/46 targets
Kraft 32 rec/44 targets
Golden 29 rec/44 targets (65%)
Jacobs 36 rec/44 targets.
Musgrave 24 rec/31 targets
Reed 19 rec/22 targets
Melton 4 rec/13 targets
Williams 10 rec/10 targets
Seems the higher grades of young talents often correlate to their having had more opportunities.
I mean, Savion Williams didn't have enough targets/reps to be graded!!! "No Data - Not Ranked." That ought to change this season.
golfpacker61
March 30, 2026 at 03:32 pm
Wow Green, Savion was 10 for 10. And that was the guy that draft gurus said had bad hands and "concentration drop." I watched highlights after we picked him and I saw a team with an inaccurate QB, and Williams making really tough catches look very easy. 1 catch where he was horizontal 6 inches off the turf and made a 2 handed grab.
I will admit the WRs I wanted last year were Jayden Higgins-Ia State and Donte Thornton-Tenn. I thought #22 was too early for a WR after Egbuka was picked and all the DTs disappeared early. I would have traded back for extra picks, took Higgins and then a Top 10 CB.
greengold
March 31, 2026 at 01:42 pm
Yeah golfpacker61, I wanted Gutekunst to take Deone Walker in the worst way. Our DL has been neglected at NT since Raji left. Gotta have 2 legit NTs to make it work, and how did he not see that, AGAIN???
Nonetheless, when Gutekunst took Golden, I was very happy. Anthony Belton? I loved that pick too, because he’s a freaking mauler. Then Savion??? I thought: “Oh, wait. The man is right. We needed help on O because we couldn’t score often enough.
Loved his R3 selection by GB. He’s dynamic af. Caught 75% of his Red Zone Contested Catches entering the draft. We are in for a treat this year watching Golden & Williams emerge.
Now, how about we quit f-ing around and add 2 proper NTs to work in rotation?
SicSemperTyrannis
March 30, 2026 at 07:22 pm
Interesting stats, GG!
I've read that #0 sometimes led defenders into our other WRs on choice routes, just as one example of rookie mistakes. That I didn't see it is probably my lack of saavy. I don't know but I hope to see lots of development from him translating into production this season, and I also hope to see Savion develop into a great player - in GB.
Generally speaking I think it's fair to say that the development side of draft and development has been lacking, and I'm not sure that's all on Gutey? One thing I love to see is young pass rushers practicing with Micah's private trainer! Hopefully LVN gets in on that. Likewise a perfect pairing would be all our fastest WRs playing catch with JL10, letting him adjust to their speed in the off season. Guys motivated to put in work like that can make all the difference in the world ...
GPG!!
greengold
March 31, 2026 at 02:00 pm
Couldn’t agree more, Sic. Micah Parsons is LEGIT!!! Great team player showing exemplary leadership.
I think the gloves are off now. No more pussyfooting around. You can see it within, top on down. Good. Bullock spouting off on the Bears falls right into that category. Hell yes.
I like what this draft has to offer the Packers in a few weeks. Serious toughness has been added, as we see, with more to come. I fully expect more mauling on O and more fully rounded iDL, LB and CB additions working thru draft/UDFA/trades/FA signings to bring that Lombardi Trophy back home.
dblbogey
March 30, 2026 at 01:55 pm
Given our history of first round picks over the last 15 years, we'll have as good a chance finding a 2nd round impact player as we would if we had a 1st round pick. I hope a quality offensive lineman is on the board at pick 52. We have plenty of needs, but If our OL play isn't improved significantly, we'll struggle on offensive at times as we did last year. I think Josh Jacobs has plenty left in the tank, but the man had nowhere to run last year and Love was pressured way too often.
golfpacker61
March 30, 2026 at 03:36 pm
My problem with taking an O-lineman @ #52 is he won't play at all unless we lose someone to injuries. I would rather draft a guy who might start or at least plays alot. And even though CB is our biggest need, an Edge like Gabe Jacas or Dani Dennis-Sutton would start in GB over anyone they have now including LVN. An Edge or a really good CB could start for GB in 2026, that's how weak those 2 position groups are. O-line depth is a problem too, but at least we have 5 solid starters there.
PhantomII
March 30, 2026 at 04:46 pm
It doesn't matter. OL and DL are weak positions....someone will get hurt...Tom is not back and is hurt EVERY season and knocked out of most playoff games as I recall. I think Sorrell is going to be a problem for teams and I hope he gets his shot. DL also would be great although I would prefer a Vet DL/DE....and Vet TE while Kraft is gone. GB will slow roll any draft pick. That is the Norm here as frustrating as it is no matter what they do on the field.
Ihappydirt
March 30, 2026 at 05:15 pm
Agree with the slow roll and the frustration. But Kraft is supposed to be ready for Week 1. I also think Cox could be a good edge now that he's healthy, and I do like Sorrell.
dblbogey
March 31, 2026 at 01:33 pm
Ever since I saw Sorrell walking out when he was drafted in the 4th round, I've loved this guy, and he showed some talent at the end of last year. The way he was so happy and grateful and appreciative of the opportunity to play in the NFL, and watching him in interviews, this is a high character, high class guy you instantly pull for.
dobber
March 31, 2026 at 07:37 am
Someone is going to get hurt...probably 2 or maybe even 3, and you need to be good in the OL depth chart or your line goes to crap with just that first one. I think the most play-ready players the Packers can draft on day 2 will be at CB/DL/IOL. It's not important to me, at least, which position groups they service on day 2 of the draft so long as they find those players to fill in the depth chart. I'll say it again: you get great OL depth and an ability to shed big contracts by drafting well and drafting the OL every year.
I think it's unlikely that they find an immediate starter in the draft at just about any position, but it could happen. With the natural 4-year turnover that comes with rookie contracts, there are several positions groups that desperately need attention. Pick the best players with the best longer-term projection that you can get, and fill with vets after the draft.
dblbogey
March 31, 2026 at 01:44 pm
I guess the obvious strategy is to take the best prospect available at one of the 4 positions we really need help. If that's an OL, I'd grab him. If not I agree, take a guy who will contribute and upgrade an area of need. But, I think an OL could step in and beat out a starter at some point in '26, IF we pick the right one. Off topic - but I was reading about LVN's 5th year option and how they passed up Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a stud CB to draft LVN. I generally support and give the benefit of the doubt to Packers management, GM, Head coach, but after considering some of Gute's many misses in the 1st round, and then the Aaron Banks, Hobbs disaster, I think Gute should maybe be on thin ice. I notice Ron Wolf's son, Elliot who was a Packers employee and candidate for our GM job, is doing well as GM with the Patriots . We maybe kept the wrong guy.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 30, 2026 at 07:26 pm
I agree that of all the team needs, improvement on the O line would translate into winning more games more than any other position group. If our offensive weapons stay healthy they'll be unstoppable, with a competent O line.
It seems to me that player development will contribute to this goal this season more than the draft, but however it happens ...
dobber
March 30, 2026 at 02:49 pm
I'm going to be that person again who says, "what do you mean by...," in this case "an 'impact' rookie." I'm not a fan of the "enough snaps for PFF to give a toot" metric. I think most people mean a guy who becomes a team leader out of the gate, but someone like Belton certainly played a major role in '25 when the OL got beat up. Without him, I think things go meaningfully worse. Cooper, Bullard, and Evan Williams all played a lot in '24 right off the bat and made a big difference for the Packers. Reed, Kraft/Musgrave, Valentine (don't scoff...they needed him) in '23?
The Packers haven't been afraid to play rookies and this year they need to draft a handful who can play. They might not start--I think it's hard to find a spot except maybe CB on the roster where you can expect a rookie in round 2 or beyond to jump into a starting role. But they can raise the talent floor on the two deep and bring something to the table when injuries call on them to play.
golfpacker61
March 30, 2026 at 03:40 pm
An Edge like Jacas, Dennis-Sutton, Lawrence, Young or Derrick Moore could easily start in GB day 1 2026. But I think the right CB could too. We are really under staffed with talent at those 2 position groups.
GregC
March 30, 2026 at 02:54 pm
This article is an unwelcome dose of reality for a lot of fans, who tend to think the Packers are the worst team in the league at using rookies. It often seems that way because the only rookies we hear about on other teams are the ones who play a lot and play well. Even when that happens, it is often because the rookie plays for a bad team, which allows him to get lots of playing time.
Using a PFF grade of 70 as a benchmark for quality play is questionable, but maybe it's about the best we can do. I have a more modest standard for a successful rookie season, which is to play a fair amount and to at least be average, with maybe a few splash plays here and there. For a lot of rookies, that's the best you can hope for. Javon Bullard is an example of a player who did that. He was not what you would call an impact player, but he was probably a lot better than whoever was behind him on the depth chart, and he set himself up for a really good second season. I'm hoping we can at least get a few players like that in the 2026 draft. A true impact rookie would be a bonus.
dobber
March 31, 2026 at 07:41 am
"This article is an unwelcome dose of reality for a lot of fans, who tend to think the Packers are the worst team in the league at using rookies. "
I agree: this narrative is off and seems to be more parlayed by those who haven't liked the Packers' first round selections. The Packers--especially under LaF--have not historically been afraid to play their draft picks, and sometimes even UDFAs, early on.
splitpea1
March 30, 2026 at 03:09 pm
The last three Super Bowl champions drafted very impactful rookies in the second round, so don't act like it can't be done... The Packers under Ted nabbed a few OL rookie starters and another one with Gute. Let's not pave the way for disappointment before the draft even gets here. Borrowing from the previous article, less "Packersy" and more impactful is what we're looking for here--it's not a fool's errand.
WestCoastPackerBacker
March 30, 2026 at 03:13 pm
Corey Linsley 5 th round started every game as rookie
Bakhtiari 4th round started 16 games as a rookie
James Jones 3rd round close to 700 yds as a rookie
There are some guys. They may trade WR for a pick to package and move up to get a higher pick. You never know.
greengold
March 30, 2026 at 03:14 pm
dobber hitting the nail on the head. Opportunities.
There are going to be some draftees (AND UDFAs) with wide open runways for take off this season in GB. Big reps should be available at a number of positions. Some with top level talents returning from injury on varying timetables. Other openings realized in the Packers switch to a 3-4 Defense. Add in those positions Gutekunst is having to cover for with underperforming/overpriced players released.
There will be plenty of opportunities at ED, DT, NT, CB, LB, RB, OG, OC, TE... K... and, who knows what other positions? A little CYA at ED, 3T and TE wouldn't hurt regarding positions to stack talents. I'm not sold on Aaron Banks, Sean Rhyan, Keishean Nixon, Carrington Valentine and depth at both OT positions. Much improvement needs to be shown by those players.
Too soon to say the job opposite Micah Parsons upon his return is set with LVN, Sorrell or Cox, Jr. Karl Brooks has some proving to do as does Warren Brinson. There is definitely room for another baller in-line blocking TE on this Packers roster too.
Position battles abound in GB. Opportunities galore for the new players coming into 1265.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 30, 2026 at 07:32 pm
So you're saying GB has a chance this season? Lol, sooo many here have written this team off.
Spring is in the air!
Alberta_Packer
March 30, 2026 at 04:06 pm
When conflating empirical probability, hit-rate analysis and Gutekunst's drafting record - there is an extremely low probability of the Packers finding an impact rookie. Especially as the odds of drafting an impact player decrease significantly after the first round (which historically has been Gutekunst's poorest drafting round). On the other hand - Gutekunst does OK on Day 2 and extraordinary on Day 3.
Still impact hope remains - as the second year is widely considered the biggest jump year for NFL players. That being so - I am looking for some degree of impact from the sophomores - Mathew Golden, Anthony Belton, Savion Williams, Barryn Sorrell, Collin Oliver and possible others.
Also in play with each draft - is the "Improbability Theory" - which in the context of NFL players refers to unexpected career trajectories. E.g. Evan Williams - 4th round pick 111.
greengold
March 30, 2026 at 04:51 pm
I look at this much differently, Alberta.
Edgerrin Cooper. Javon Bullard. Tucker Kraft. Christian Watson. Romeo Doubs. Zach Tom. Jaden Reed. Dontayvion Wicks. Rasheed Walker. They all were/are starters or starting caliber talents. 7 of those players are immensely productive.
This draft seems pretty deep with players where GB has need positions to fill. I would not be surprised to see 4 starters from this draft.
Alberta_Packer
March 30, 2026 at 06:08 pm
Some good draft picks from Gutekunst. However all Day 2 and after - which is his strength.
Conversely - Day 1 is his weakest - which ironically provides the best opportunity to find an impact player/starter .
Also the above mentioned players where all drafted between 2022 -24. In those years GB had 11, 13 and 11 draft picks - respectively. Last year (2025) GB had 8. I think that it can argued that no "impact rookies" were produced from this recent class. This year the Packers have 7 picks. Their fewest number since 2016. Fewer picks means a smaller number of opportunities to find an impact player / starter. Especially a rookie..
PhantomII
March 30, 2026 at 04:57 pm
I'm pretty sure if we had a Coach that could recognize that Golden dropped 1 pass all season and made him the GO TO WR...GB would have beat the Bears....Until common sense is common in GB....We will not see a trophy at home.
Alberta_Packer
March 30, 2026 at 08:36 pm
Ignoring Golden was asset mismanagement - to the extent of idiocy. Just another reason why I have MLF gag reflex.
golfpacker61
March 30, 2026 at 04:16 pm
It's kind of sad Greengold, that there are so many weak spots on GBs 53-man roster right now. We are weak in alot of position groups, and I honestly thought we only needed about 5 upgrade players before last year's free agency and draft. Right now, we need to overhaul the CB room. The Edge room is down 3 guys who played a ton last year, although I won't miss Enagbare or Gary at all. We need a solid NT. Our TE2 plays like a TE3 or 4. Our O-line has no solid backups. And we currently have no RB2 unless a practice Squad RB is promoted, or the ever-missing Marshawn Lloyd turns a corner. That's a lot of holes.
Maybe I am unrealistic but is it too much to ask that if we draft 3 players in the first 3 rounds of any draft, at the greatest positions of need, that they would be expected to start or play a lot of meaningful minutes. I guess when I do my mocks that is the number 1 priority, draft players that will be solid contributors if not upgrade starters.
If we select an Edge and a CB with our first 2 picks, in either order, we should have 2 potential starters right there. Every pick after that need to be solid upgrades to backups. I am holding out hope for Calais Campbell and Clowney after the draft somehow. Maybe get a deal in place now even if it means an extra Million dollars to lock them up. That would at least eliminate 2 big weak spots right away. Depending on who we draft, a veteran, cheap CB & TE would fill 2 more holes. That would be a solid effort and make us better than last year. The 2027 draft will upgrade alot of areas and make us the complete team I thought we could be in 2025.
greengold
March 31, 2026 at 02:14 pm
I think we’re going to be way better than fine.
Addition by subtraction is a thing. No more half-assed jogging from $20M EDGE players, or read & recognition along with massive coverage failures from R1 LBs.
No more GMs FAILING to insure NT rotations are available for a Packers DC.
No more GMs hanging onto their prize picks or FA acquisitions who don’t work, or get their bag$ and quit.
No more sticking with an ST Coordinator who couldn’t deliver over 8 years.
Time to fucking WIN that Lombardi Trophy. Again.