Packers Mock Draft Monday 4.0
By Ross Uglem
Ross will provide a semi-weekly roundup of national mock drafts relating to the Packers picks. He'll also utilize Fanspeak's software to do a few mock drafts of his own. In 2019 the Packers will pick six times in the first four rounds, so those are the rounds that we will focus on.
This mock was done using DraftCountdown's Big Board, user-voted team needs and the "Difficult" algorithm on Fanspeak.
So this is kinda what happens when you get a premium player that sort of falls in your lap. Ed Oliver is what I'd call a "blue-chipper". He's the kind of athletic freak that a team like Green Bay with a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers should not have the chance to draft. Olivers' the kind of guy that if everyone's paying attention, he goes in the top five. Teams like the Packers don't pick in the top five. In this draft, though, Quarterbacks and EDGE defenders pushed Oliver to me at #12. That removed the ability to take any of my "big 6" EDGE guys. At this point you're hoping the Packers have added some rush in free agency as we bring along the long levered Anthony Nelson and Joe Jackson, the kind of players that Pettine has used on the edge in the past. Hockenson is the crown jewel of the offensive class, but Hyatt is the type of tackle convert that has worked for Green Bay in the past.
Roundup:
Joe Marino - The Draft Network - Hockenson and Jachai Polite - This is a pretty popular combination. I am starting to realize that this is accurate, though and the Packers are likely to have to pull the trigger on Hockenson at 12 because it's unlikely he'll actually be available at 30. Polite has size issues and potentially surfacing attitude issues (unconfirmed) that could push him (foolishly) into that Harold Landry territory. An excellent haul. I would need to be pulled off the ceiling.
Matt Miller - Bleacher Report - Brian Burns, N'Keal Harry, Mack Wilson, Connor McGovern, Isaac Nauta, Jaquan Johnson - wow this one is up and down. The Burns pick is definitely one that I can get behind. The Harry pick is definitely not. The Packers aren't a first round wide receiver type of team and I hope to God they don't break that trend by taking a receiver that can't separate. Harry is a YAC wizard but if he can't get open then he's a gadget player that you have to scheme open. Not a 1st round pick. I also kinda hate the Mack Wilson and Connor McGovern picks, but the Nauta and Jaquan picks are nice. Seriously though, if the Packers take N'Keal at 30 and then Hock and Fant go 32, 33, I'm going to need some emotional support.
Dan Kadar - Mocking the Draft - Burns, Harry, Irv Smith- I just would hate that Harry pick so much. He's a third round value to me. I can't get behind it as much as I'd like the other two picks.
Lance Zierlein - NFL.com - Jeffery Simmons, Dalton Risner- As much as I love Dalton Risner, I really don't care for prospects that put their hands on women, especially in the top 12. Especially when I'm not even convinced he affects the pass game (seven sacks in three seasons) to really be considered in the top 12. The NFL isn't even inviting Simmons to the combine. This one goes in the trash.
Brad Weiss - Fansided - Oliver and AJ Brown- I like Brown much more than Harry as a prospect, but the Packers haven't really addressed their needs in this mock. I understand the BPA philosophy certainly, but unless the needs have been addressed in free agency (which is how you should do it needs=FA, value=draft) this makes reasonably strong parts of the roster stronger. Year one production sure projects either ESB or MVS as future legit WR2 and the Packers already have a WR1 in the top 5 in football. Can they add talent to that group? Sure. Should they fix it before EDGE or TE or S? No. To give everyone a little credit, mocks make more sense after free agecny.
Timothy Rapp - Bleacher Report - Burns and Deionte Thompson- There is plenty of good Deointe Thompson tape to go with the bad tape that has removed him as a top 15 prospect for me. A person could certainly be talked into Deionte Thompson and whatever he'll be as a pro it will at least be better than Kentrell Brice. Thompson could come in and even if he doesn't work out at free, he'd likely be a plus #2 safety alongside Tramon Williams until they either sign Earl Thomas or figure that out in 2020.
Packers Draft Prospect Vid of the Week (no highlights):
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Ross Uglem is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @RossUglem
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Comments (40)
PackEyedOptimist
February 04, 2019 at 02:17 pm
Miller's draft was really annoying to me because he could have (based on his selections) drafted this:
12. Montez Sweat, EDGE,
30. Dalton Risner, OT,
44. Nasir Adderley, S
75. Devin Singletary, RB
107. Andy Isabella, WR
111. Beau Benzschawel, OG,
Jace Sternberger, TE,
Myles Gaskin, RB
Foster Moreau, TE/FB
Tony Pollard, WR/R
HankScorpio
February 05, 2019 at 05:34 am
I really want the Packer to add OL and TE with 30 & 44. Personally, I think TE at 30 and OL at 44 but i'd be fine with it the other way around. Miller has the Packers passing on the Big 3 TE prospects of Hockenson, Fant and Irv Smith @ 30 and all 3 being gone by 44. I think Kaden Smith is the consolation prize and he has the Packers passing on him @ 75. I would hate it if things turned out that way.
For the OL addition, Miller has Chris Lidstrom going early 5th. What I've read suggests he should be in play @ 44 and a no-brainer @ 75--where Miller has them taking Conner McGovern. I also think Michael Dieter's experience at OT makes him a more attractive prospect than McGovern. Dru Samia and Ben Powers both go off the board after the Packers 5th and before their 6th. Unless they had already doubled-up on OL by the 5th, seeing that happen would give me the sads.
Circling back to the too-early pick of N'Keal Neal at 30, I think there is a really good chance to find some value at WR in the 4th, Colleges have been cranking out WR prospects at a prolific rate.
mrtundra
February 06, 2019 at 10:07 am
Dalton Risner should be available at #30
KeepErMovin
February 05, 2019 at 09:15 am
Nice. Here's mine (Based on Miller's selections)
12: Jachai Polite - EDGE
30: TJ Hockenson - TE
44: Nasir Adderley - Safety
75: D'Andre Walker - EDGE
107: Beau Benzschawel - OG
111: Darnell Savage Jr - Safety
139: Jace Sternberger -TE
171: Penny Hart - WR
180: Nate Davis - OG
202: Tony Pollard - WR/RB
PackEyedOptimist
February 06, 2019 at 08:51 am
Great draft!
Ryan3468
February 04, 2019 at 02:38 pm
No clue who they will get. Just hope they finally get some young talent on the offensive line, tight end, outside linebacker, corner/safety, safety/middle linebacker. Emphasis needs to be offensive line, and quarterback. We don’t need another nuclear winter.
stockholder
February 04, 2019 at 03:06 pm
Ross- You made a great choice! If the packers don't take a DT to replace Wilkerson, It will be the biggest mistake in 5 years. Oliver could be Sapp! Simmons could be Suh! And I'm going to throw a new one here too. Wilkins. A Pff #2 rated, among Dts. The Pass rushers Polite, Burns, and even Sweat are 15- 50 on Top 50 boards. TJ Hoekenson/Fant/ is logical. But I just can't go along with taking offense yet. @#30 Still defense, If Devin Bush is there, I'm all over him. This defense has NO Heart. Mike Singletary was so good. Even Ray Nitschke. I heard their high on Harry WR, I would take Harry/or edge, over a TE. @44 If Harry goes as planned, Mack Wilson ILB.or Risner \\ Lindstrom G ,Jackson, Jace Sterberger TE. I believe the packers don't take a TE early.
Community Guy
February 04, 2019 at 03:10 pm
at this point mocks are a mockery.
dobber
February 04, 2019 at 03:16 pm
Everything scrambles in a couple weeks....
hybridauth_Facebook_100001556211276
February 04, 2019 at 03:15 pm
I realy like de pick ed oliver at 12, 30 one of 2 TE from Iowa, in a second rond maybe Politte will fall because is shor like Harold landry last year. 3 rond safety TRapp is a dream. 4 rond pick big guys for the Oline, maybe the guys from Wisconsin if is there.
Lare
February 04, 2019 at 03:20 pm
I don't know much about a lot of these players, but I'd be willing to bet that the Packers will use (at least) one pick in the first three rounds to improve the offensive line.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
February 06, 2019 at 07:51 pm
None of the posters know much about these players let's face it, however fun to read the enthusiasm.
Rossonero
February 04, 2019 at 03:38 pm
Deionte Thompson should fall to the earl to mid 20's. I remember seeing Haha Clinton-Dix being as high as #10 overall in mocks several years ago. It's that Alabama brand name and a thin safety class.
Give me Nasir Adderley any day over Thompson. And we should be able to get Adderley in the 2nd round. I doubt he'll go in the 1st round simply based on the fact that teams will look down on him playing vs. lesser competition. Let's hope he's the next Nick Collins.
jannesbjornson
February 04, 2019 at 07:22 pm
Watching quite a bit of SEC this past autumn, Abram from Miss. State stood out as the best safety.
jannesbjornson
February 04, 2019 at 07:23 pm
Watching quite a bit of SEC this past autumn, Abram from Miss. State stood out as the best safety.
KeepErMovin
February 05, 2019 at 09:17 am
I would take Adderley at 30. I think he is that good.
Skip greenBayless
February 04, 2019 at 03:58 pm
I agree.
Dash
Rash Diprock
February 04, 2019 at 04:05 pm
I agree with your agreement. :)
Turophile
February 04, 2019 at 04:27 pm
With Bleacher Report big board (30 Jan), user-voted needs and set on difficult, I got this:
1A Edge Jachai Polite
1B OT Andre Dillard
2 S Juan Thornhill
3 G Chris Lindstrom
4A TE Isaac Nauta
4B RB Mike Weber
5 LB Te'von Coney
I was pleased to get both G Lindstrom and OT Dillard to boost the Packers OL, they both looked very good at the practices in the Senior Bowl. I'd rather someone like Ferrell than Polite, but he was gone. Coney at round 5 looked good value.
stockholder
February 04, 2019 at 05:56 pm
I heard Dillard had a back problem. 6'7". Risner and Lindstrom 2nd rd. Lindstrom will be an all-pro RG. Thornhill and Adderley had trouble in the press. Levon Coney goes in the second. Polite is dropping. Ross doesn't like Simmons. But he gets double teamed so often. If you watch film on Sweat, Simmons is right there with him. The invite won't scare off clubs. But charges/lawsuits could. Top 15. The Pittsburgh steelers need to replace Shazier. An ILB will go there. They also need a CB, Breeland?
jannesbjornson
February 04, 2019 at 07:12 pm
Lindstrom not likely to drift past the second round. Someone may pick him with a lower # one.
Mike Wendlandt
February 04, 2019 at 06:38 pm
Did a Mock for my personal blog on Wix using Matt Miller's board. Let me know what you fellow Cheeseheads think.
Round 1 (12) - Clelin Ferrell, EDGE. Clemson
Round 1 (30) - Jachai Polite, EDGE. Florida
Round 2 (44) - Nasir Adderley, S. Delaware
Round 3 (75) - Dalton Risner, OL. Kansas State
Round 4 (114) - Dakota Allen, LB. Texas Tech
Round 4 (118) - Zach Gentry, TE. Michigan (Thanks HHCD)
Round 5 (151) - Myles Gaskin, RB. Washington
Round 6 (187) - Penny Hart, WR. Georgia State
Round 6 (195) - Alize Mack, TE. Notre Dame (Thanks Hundley)
Round 7 (228) - Trace McSorley, QB. Penn State
jannesbjornson
February 04, 2019 at 07:16 pm
Some have Ferrell in the top five, maybe going @ three in some mockery.
LambeauPlain
February 05, 2019 at 06:44 am
Watch the highlight reel on Adderly and you will take him at 30.
He also really stood out at the Senior Bowl.
He is an instinctive, ball hawking tackling machine. He has that “Nick Collins” feel about him. And he can play slot CB too and retun kicks.
Plas his cousin Herb says Nassir “is the real deal”. Good enogh for me! Pack would be set at center field for years.
KeepErMovin
February 05, 2019 at 10:10 am
Ferrell went 8th, Polite went 21st, Risner went 39th, and Allen went 76th in Miller's latest mock (released on 2/4/19). Also I don't like the idea of taking a QB from the weak class this year. Her are my packers picks using Miller's latest mock.
12: Jachai Polite - EDGE
30: TJ Hockenson - TE
44: Nasir Adderley - Safety
75: D'Andre Walker - EDGE
107: Beau Benzschawel - OG
111: Darnell Savage Jr - Safety
139: Jace Sternberger -TE
171: Penny Hart - WR
180: Nate Davis - OG
202: Tony Pollard - WR/RB
PackEyedOptimist
February 06, 2019 at 08:47 am
I'd be very happy with that draft! I'm not a huge Polite fan, but the rest of your picks look great!
PackEyedOptimist
February 06, 2019 at 08:49 am
Holy crap, that would be an amazing draft! Sadly, I expect several to go earlier than listed here.
JonR005
February 04, 2019 at 08:30 pm
CUTS:
Cut N. Perry to add $10.7 mil in cap space this year.
Cut Bulaga (if we add an O-Lineman) for about $6.6 mil in cap space.
FA with $44-50 mil cap space :
Sign 1-2 EDGE defenders. (P. Smith, T. Flowers, B. Graham, J. Houston, S. Barrett, Z. Smith, D. Fowler)
Sign 1 O-Lineman. (D. Williams, J. James, R. Saffold, T. Brown)
Sign 1 Safety. (E. Thomas, L. Collins, L. Joyner, A. Amos, T. Mathieu)
DRAFT:
Trade up for Bosa or Allen
OR
Take BPA @ EDGE/OT/DI/CB @ 12 and be willing to trade up to take Hockenson or Adderly late 1.
jannesbjornson
February 04, 2019 at 09:01 pm
Mock one from outer space:
1. Jachai Polite OLB, Florida
1b. . Jonathan Abram S, Miss State.
2nd..Bennie Snell RB, Kentucky
3rd. Michael Dieter G, Badgers
4a. Tre Watson, ILB, Maryland
4b. Jarrett Stidhem, QB, Auburn
5. Josh Oliver TE, San Jose State
6a Michael Jackson CB , Miami
6b Dionte Johnson WR, Toledo
7. Alec Ingold FB, Badgers
Bert
February 04, 2019 at 09:21 pm
Let's face it. If we are counting on the 2019 draft to plug gaps and propel us to the 2019 playoffs we will probably be sadly disappointed. Most of these draft picks will start making an impact in 2020/21 if at all, not 2019. It's gonna take some real creative work by Gute and MLF to get this team in the playoffs in 2019. If things go well with the draft, FAs and the new rookie HC I think a 2020 playoff run is more realistic. To that end, drafting for talent and upgrading the roster would be more beneficial that trying to pick for immediate need.
Minniman
February 04, 2019 at 10:55 pm
I somewhat agree with you Bert, and while I can't speak for other posters here, I personally place no expectation on the 2019 Packers to do anything other than be an improvement on the 2018 ones.
If FA are able to provide the plug-and-play upgrades at least at Safety and Guard (assuming retention of some other key FA pieces) and the Draftees show development through the season (hopefully in areas of Edge, TE, DL and OL) then I'll get excited again about a run in 2020 - A 2019 run will depend on injury luck, FA and Draft paydirt.... a lottery-esque alignment of fate.
stockholder
February 04, 2019 at 11:05 pm
Bert thats True. Pass Rushers take 3 years. Wrs, well look at Adams. Safeties 2yrs. OL. either they start or end up like Spriggs. So This is why you draft a DT.#1 for Wilkerson .. Sure Adams might be ready. But this could be Daniels last year. #2 ILB, Ryan? Morrison ? or Burks? (Draft Bush ) #3 OL. If only Spriggs could start. The packers have to keep Bulaga. T. Williams, and move T. Brown to FS. Don't draft a safety. Sign Breeland. It frees T.Brown and Williams to play FS. Graham is the TE. Perry and Frackwell are your edge/OLB. The packers have two glaring Holes. Wilkerson and Bell at RG. CM3 is done. Cobb is done. Who replaces them? Cobb -St Brown or MVS. CM3 ? Frackwell has too. The packers still need Help. But upgrades take time. Biegal failed. And so will other edge/OLB rushers. Nick Perry is still under contract. The packers must pick sure bets.
PackEyedOptimist
February 05, 2019 at 08:12 am
As usual, I agree with most of what you've said here, Stockholder. My preference for pick 12 is a DL to replace Wilkerson and Daniels. However, if a good safety candidate is available at 30 or beyond, I'm taking him--UNLESS Pettine is convinced that a young guy on the roster (Greene or Campbell probably) is ready to make a jump. Other than RG, I think safety is the weakest place on the roster. I also see Perry and Fackrell as the starting OLBs next year, but unless Donnerson suddenly comes on (or darkhorse Sheldon?), the roster needs a serious OLB candidate. I actually think the Packers OT situation is pretty good--I see potential in Light and DeBeer and Spriggs was better last year than he's given credit for. However, we NEED a guard and a good backup center.
fthisJack
February 05, 2019 at 08:55 am
who's Frackwell?
4zone
February 05, 2019 at 01:29 pm
I think we get two instant contributers at 2 of our top 3 needs in this draft. We could get lucky with 2 or more solid rotation guys with the rest and maybe one shocking, under the radar impact guy. I've got OT/G Edge and TE as our top 3 needs. You could argue Safety as well but I am hoping for a FA signing there and maybe a project guy in the draft.
Which of those three we get will depend on how the top 6 picks go. If Edge gets a run early, we could have a top OT fall into our lap and I expect TE to be our pick at #30 unless an Edge guy we like falls that far. Long way to go before we get there though. Will see what happens until then.
jannesbjornson
February 09, 2019 at 09:19 pm
Those are valid points.
HankScorpio
February 05, 2019 at 05:27 pm
"A person could certainly be talked into Deionte Thompson "
Not this person.
Maybe the tape doesn't lie. But when the tape is showing you and 10 other elite athlete 5-star recruits playing teams that are physically over-matched at nearly every spot, it does fib a little bit. That effect is more pronounced at some positions. Safety is definitely on the higher end of that scale, IMO.
PackEyedOptimist
February 06, 2019 at 08:45 am
Completely agree. I didn't want HahaCD for the same reasons. I'm much more impressed by Adderley's and Thornhill's tapes.
stockholder
February 06, 2019 at 01:07 pm
Thompson should go to Wash. @15. Good Bye Dix. I have Adderley , Rapp and the Johnsons, rated ahead of Thornhill and Abram. All 2nd rd. The problem from #13 to @17 is this. All have a need for an edge rusher. Atl. and Carrolina want a IDL. Wilkins (ATL) Polite (Clev), Sweat (Carr), and Burns (Minn.) . Compare them to Barr. It's all boom or Bust. The size goes to Sweat and Burns. Not Polite. Sweat was helped by Simmons. Burns needs muscle.
albert999
February 05, 2019 at 06:01 pm
OL
ER
TE
SLOT
QB
S
ER
Uncle Albert