Love was drafted before Hurts, seems a good fit for LaFluers Scheme. Hope he turns out as good or better.Last year wasn’t LaFluers scheme. I think LaFluer likes RBs and TEs…..it’s how we got Marcedes and Dillon. Would t surprise me one bit of they Go TE rounds 1 and 2 and dip back in pending anything from the Jets. I once believed that McCarthy would be a TE guy since he was a TE..but that really didn’t materialize too well. 2 facts I know…Lafluer likes running systems and Rodgers liked passing systems. Once GB decided to start running the ball, keep the defense rested…the more games were won.

With a combination of perfect vision in hindsight and cherry picked selections, you can make almost any case you want.

Having said that, trading back is often a good choice, especially with the value you get from moving down several spots in round one.

I like the article. Those were three players that were duds we lost by trading up.

I prefer trading down where possible to pick up more players and better chances at hitting on one.

People say that Edge and TE are deep especially for the first two rounds. So I hope they don't trade up to get either of those positions.

It is difficult to suggest here since we don't know what compensation we get from Rodgers.

I would be OK with trading 1st and 3rd round picks to move up a few spots in the first round to get WR Smith from Ohio State.

But ny sense and preference is to trade down and get another 2nd round choice. Having 4 or 5 players in the top 60 should yield 2 or 3 good players.

Good article Jonathan, but I disagree with your argument that TE is the most important need for the Packers. I believe it is important and I hope they draft a couple, but there is no way one of those should be at #15.

Hopefully the AR trade is going to gets us 42 and 43. Combined with our #45, there will still be solid TE's available in that range. I know everyone loves Washington, Kincaid and Musgrave (personally I would prefer Mayer because I think he is ready now), but I would be fine with Laporta, Kuntz or Kraft combined with a later pick to build up the room.

They’ve got to trust their evaluations, and be aggressive when necessary. The problem is, there is still a crapshoot element to the whole thing. Bold moves are lauded as “aggressive” when they work and “foolish” when they don’t.

Were the Bucks universally applauded when they chose Giannis 15th overall? Doubtful. Given a “do-over” for that draft, knowing what we know now, would he again be passed over 14 times? I have my doubts.

But they really haven't excelled past the second round for quite a while. Lately they've come up with Slaton, Tom, and Runyan; toward the end of the Ted era they found a couple of serviceable players in Fackrell and Martinez.

I guess like every GM, Gute just has his favorites; sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. He said he just couldn't resist someone with Wyatt's athletic ability, so he pulled the trigger. And I'm kind of happy that he did.

Although not a trade situation, what turned out to be a poor decision in the last couple of drafts was not selecting a safety. And last year Kerby Joseph was available at #92, and Gute took OL Rhyan. Sigh.

I don't think (at least I hope not!) they'll dawdle too long in addressing TE, simply because the lack of quantity and quality is staring us right in the face.

I've been worried about this as well; Gute has traded up several times, and I HATE it when we trade up! I'm all in favor of trading down, especially if you can get better-than-equal value in the future, such as giving this year's first for someone's first next year plus their second this year. (I probably wouldn't do that with pick 15, but I'd have loved it all these years when we've picked in the bottom 10).

Another part of this, in my opinion, Jonathan, is that everyone gets attached to their draft "crushes." It's hard for ME (with no real skin in the game) to consider taking someone I don't really have that crush on, when one I DO like is still available. I think experiences can make someone even more adamant about their preferences--our successes often overcome our losses in "gambling" circumstances like the draft. So a manager is more likely to remember the "success" of trading up for Clay Matthews than the "mistake" of an Amari Rogers.

Nonetheless, that's what you need to do to be successful.

Time is a flat circle. Everything Gute's ever done or will do, he's gonna do over and over and over again. And the scouts and all the personnel staff, they're gonna be in that Draft room again and again and again forever.

Trade down.

I don't want him trading up, at all. Not in R1, that's for sure.

If he has to, make it back into R3-R4. He'll probably trade #78 away to get back into R2. Please, NO!!!! There are dynamite players in R3. Too good to pass up.

The meat of this draft is R1 thru R4, and there's a lot to be had. R4-5 is still a gold mine this year with the depth at EDGE, DT, CB, RB and OT.

You want more swings, Brian? Trade down in R2 with the 45.

Be assured, Gutekunst will screw it up just like he has in all his drafts. He hits on only 2 maybe 3 contributors per draft. Only 1 player he has drafted has been offered a second contract.

False information.

We need ONE primary weapon on offense, one complementary weapon.

We need ONE starting RT, because that would put Tom and Nijman on a good bench, and it might pave the way for after Bakhtiari.

We need ONE Edge Rusher
We need ONE Safety.

That's 5 picks. We could trade down from #15 and get all 5 guys on Day Two. Even if we had to use some Day 3 picks or 2024 picks to move around, we could get the 5 guys we'd want to have.

Primary Weapon: Jahmyr Gibbs
Complementary Weapon: Cedric Tillman
Starting right tackle: Blake Freeland.
Edge: A. Adebawore
S: Jake Skinner.

There are other combinations that work, too.

I think MaLF ought to have a tranquilizer gun in the War Room and shoot Gutey with it if he even thinks of trading up. (Fast acting, though, so he can get our pick in on time.) It's a joke people. Calm Down. Not condoning violence.

TRADE DOWN: GOOD!

TRADE UP: BAD!

Tattoo it on the back of Gutey's hands...

Granted, there are exceptions to every rule, but personally, I would rather he trade down to get where he wants to go as opposed to trading up and wasting picks.

Hind sight is always 20/20. While there might be some validity to whether they were worth trading up for or not it's easy to look in the rear view mirror to try to justify his point. Bottomline, only the F.O. knows how they had those players rated. It's quite possible they had them rated as value picks where they were and didn't want to miss out on them, as they believed other teams were ready to pick.them. Other needs maybe out weighed the position needs for those positions earlier in the draft. I would argue that despite Tight End arguably being their biggest need that picking at 15 does not mean that should be their pick. There is great depth at the position in this draft. Passing on the top 3 to maybe take the 4th or 5th one in the 2nd round would likely be the better value, even if they felt they needed to trade up. For example, would picking Kincaid, Washington or Mayer at 15 be better than picking JSN or an edge at 15? If one of those was available in the low-mid 30's or they felt Musgrave or Laporta was ranked in that area and the Packers traded up to get the one they wanted, having to give up a 4th or 5th rounder to do so. The author basically says that would be a desperation move. To me it sounds like they were prioritizing other positions / players as offering greater value at those points in the draft and that they are being smart in trying to maximize the value of the picks they are making.

"Which brings us to this year. I have argued that tight end is positionally undervalued and is the most important need for Green Bay, and why a couple of players in this year’s TE class are potentially elite difference-makers who are deserving of the 15th pick.
The worry is that the Packers will look at the depth of the TE class, get cute and choose to wait. So imagine taking a safety, edge or wideout at 15 and then having the top three tight ends in the class gone by pick 45, which I believe is inevitable.

Jonathan,

Good work. Great article.

I don't think you have to worry about the Packers drafting a wide receiver in the first round as it is only Seattle and Green Bay that in the last 20 years have not drafted a wide receiver in the first round.

In fact, the Packers also are one of 3 teams that have gone the longest without drafting a tight end, wide receiver or running back in the first round.

Aaron Roddgers was expected to perform miracles - and he did - but now Packer fans want Jordan to have all these weapons.

Double standard.

Please see more details below.

And Aaron Rodgers in his 15 years as Packer QB succeeded in leading the Packers to as many Super Bowl wins as any other NFC QB despite the fact that over the last 20 years only the Packers and Seahawks failed to draft a receiver in the first round.

The Packers last draft of a wide receiver in the first round was Javon Walker in 2002. Walker - google him, he is a competitive body builder in his 40s today - was a 6 foot 2, 225 pound stud that ran a faster 40 – 4.35 - at the combine than Christian Watson’s 4.36 last year. Walker made the pro bowl in 2004 and established several NFL records in first 3 years, but the Packer management played hard ball with Walker – with the help of Favre – and alienated Walker much like they did Davante Adams last year.

And don’t let anyone tell you’re the probability of finding an all pro receiver in rounds 2 through 7 are higher than finding an all pro receiver in round 1. You are nearly 10 times more likely to find an all pro receiver in the first round – 20% chance - than in rounds 2 through 7 – 3.38% chance.

“Of the 80 first-round receivers, 16 (20%) have been selected to multiple Pro Bowls, including 11 with at least four. In the final six rounds, 562 receivers were drafted. Of that huge group, 19 (3.38% have been selected to multiple Pro Bowls, including eight with at least four.”

Jonathan,

When I saw the word "overpaying" I thought this article was going to be more repeating of Packer Management propaganda about how little cap space they have, which is complete nonsense.

Thanks for sparing us.

Tha said, It is interesting how people here parrot the propaganda and "talking points" Packer Management feeds to them and read to them.

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

Like a bewildered heard of lemming and an angry mob they drink it down.

How about doing your own independent research and making some comparisons with other teams.

The Packers actually have the 4th most cap space in the NFL,

And that is including the playing $31.6 cap hit of Aaron Rodgers - one year removed from leading all 32 teams' starting QBS in passer rating, a composite of completion %, interception %, touchdowns per pass attempt, and yards per pass attempt, not once but 2 years in a row and one year removed form 2 consecutive MVPs as well!!

And the Packers have the 4th most cap space in the NFL not only in terms of first 51 players, which is all that matters until September 2023:

Bears $38.3
Panthers $27.2
Lions $24.0
Packers $22.6
Texan $22.5
Least Cap Space:
Vikings $1.1

and also 4th most cap space in the NFL in terms of total players:

Bears $27.7 (64 players signed)
Panthers $19.0M (62 players signed)
Rams $13.4M (45 players signed)
Packers $12.6M (65 players signed)
Lions $8.7M (70 players signed)
Least Cap Space
Commanders -17.2 (75 players signed)

Google 2023 salary cap by team.

The Packers are 12 months removed from 13-3, 13-3, and 13-4 seasons.

They are also the 9th youngest team in the entire NFL.

Team age:
Rams 25.91
Titans 26.15
Browns 26.25
Giants 26.24
Colts 26.24
Chiefs 26.24
Bears 26.25
Bengals 26.27
Packers 26.29

Oldest Team:
Patriots 27.59

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

And Packer Management is destroying the team out of ignorance and emotion and their hurt egos because their quarterback is more truthful and intelligent and communicative than they are.

In the 2028 season the Packers then 2 time MVP breaks the all time NFL record for fewest interceptions by a QB attempting 500 passes in a season

The next season the Packers then 2 time MVP once again surpasses all Quarterbacks in NFL history and finishes 2nd - behind his own 2018 record setting performance - for fewest interceptions by a Quarterback attempting 500 or more passes, with 4 interceptions.

And what does GM Brian and President Mark do following Aaron's 2nd record breaking season for protecting the football?

They draft the quarterback that in the season he has just completed led all of college football in interceptions - giving the ball away.

And they trade up in the first round giving up their 30th pick and 136th pick (4th round. Rams tight end Brycen Hopkins) to move to slot 26 to get him!!
.

"Which brings us to this year. I have argued that tight end is positionally undervalued and is the most important need for Green Bay, and why a couple of players in this year’s TE class are potentially elite difference-makers who are deserving of the 15th pick.
The worry is that the Packers will look at the depth of the TE class, get cute and choose to wait. So imagine taking a safety, edge or wideout at 15 and then having the top three tight ends in the class gone by pick 45, which I believe is inevitable.

Jonathan,

Here is another article from CBS - for some reason the Cheesehead website will not allow me to post links:

2023 Packers seven-round NFL mock draft: Green Bay finally drafts first-round offensive skill position player
Green Bay snaps a historic first-round drought by selecting one of the best pass-catchers in the entire draft

Excerpt:

"The Packers have the longest drought in the common draft era (since 1967) without selecting a running back, wide receiver or tight end in the first round. The last time the Packers selected an offensive playmaker in the first round was 20 drafts ago when they took wide receiver Javon Walker 20th overall in 2002. That drought ends in 2023."

How fortunate that the Packers had Aaron to make miracles.

Now if Brian and Mark's hurt egos prevail because their quarterback is more intelligent, truthful, and communicative than they are, their ignorant emotion based trade of Rodgers will go through and my Packer fan friends and I - who have been watching and attending Packer games since Starr will most likely be cheering each week as we were from 1968 through 1991 - 2 playoff years in 23.

My long time fellow die hard Packer fan friends and I are still hoping sanity prevails.

Worst case, here is an idea:

I will be SHOCKED SHOCKED SHOCKED if the Packers exercise their $20 million 5th year option for Jordan for 2024 come May 1, 2023.

Talk about cap space for 2024?

What a waste of cap space that could be.

THE GIANTS DID NOT EXERCISE THEIR 5TH YEAR OPTION ON DANIEL JONES LAST MAY AND JONES HAD 36 MORE STARTS THAN JORDAN LOVE AND JONES DID NOT LEAD ALL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL IN NTERCEPTIONS THROWN IN ANY OF HIS 3 YEARS AS DUKE'S STARTER!!!

The calculating "business" thing for Brian and Mark to do - not the morally and ethically and Packer Identity protecting thing to do but the calculating business thing to do - would be to drop the ignorant and emotion driven trade and exercise the option for Aaron's 2025 season by paying Aaron the $58.3 million payment which can then be spread over the life of the remaining 4 year contract and bring Aaron back for 2023-24 and let Jordan compete for the starting job.

Give Jordan the starting job the first few games of the regular season and see how he does.

if Jordan performs better in 2023 than Rodgers did in 2008 (and better than Aaron did in 2022, which was also better than most QBs in the NFL despite the nonsense of some posters on this board), then the calculating "business" minded soulless Brian and Mark can trade Aaron in between the March 15, 2024 season's first day until the September 2024 deadline for the Packers to exercise their option for Aaron's 2026's season when they must pay $47 million to be able to spread that $47 million over the remaining 3 years of the contract.

If Jordan - after 4 years as an NFL QB at a time when most franchise QBs drafted in the first round are starting year one - performs much worse than Aaron did in 2008 (and worse than Aaron did in 2022 which was also better than most QBs despite the nonsense of some posters on this board), then no team in the NFL will be chomping at the bit to sign Jordan Love to a new contract for 2024 going forward and the Packers can look at drafting a QB in 2024, if they have not already drafted one on April 27 or April 28, 2023 that did not lead all of College Football in interceptions.

If you look at the year by year 2000 through 2022 NFL statistics for total QB performance - from Statsmuse -
totals for all 32 teams quarterbacks - you will notice that quarterback performance numbers have improved significantly.

This improvement in QB numbers is in no small measure due to the continuous rule changes to protect quarterbacks and create more offense and scoring.

If you compare 2008 totals for all QBs - Aaron's 1st year as a starter - to 2022's totals for all QBs, you will notice the following:

Passer Rating - has increased 7.1% (Aaron's 93.8% in 2008 would have been 100.4% in 2022)

Pass Attempts per season has increased 9.3% (Aaron's 536 in 2008 would have been 586 in 2022)

Completion Pct. - has increased 5.2% (Aaron's 63.6% in 2008 would have been 66.9% in 2022)

Yards per Attempt - has increased 1.4% (Aaron's 7.5% in 2008 would have been 7.6% in 2022)

Yards per Game - has increased 4.5% (Aaron's 252.4 or 4,038 yards over 16 games in 2008 would have been 263.88 or 4,486 yards over 17 games in 2022)

TD% per pass attempt - has increased 7.6% (Aaron's 5.2 % in 2008 and 28 TD passes would have been 5.6% in 2022 and 32.5 TD passes in 2022)

Interception % per pass attempt: has fallen 17.1% (Aaron's 2.4% in 2008 would have been 1.9% in 2022)

Interceptions: have fallen by 10.2% (Aaron's 13 in 2008 would have fallen to 11.6 in 2022)

Keep these numbers handy as we compare Jordan in his 4th year relative to Aaron in his 4th year in this Ignorant, emotion based Packer Management trade goes through.

Jonathan, I understand you think the Packers should put more of the TE in the passing offense, and that is our greatest need,

That is not the way we play in Green Bay. That's not us. We have HOF QBs. We have high scoring offense. And we win. That's been our identity since Wolf arrived. Bubba Franks was the last TE we took #1, and he gave us about 4-5 real good seasons, and Finley made a brief flash. We got a good season out of Richard Rodgers and another out of Graham and another out of Tonyan.

But as I've said, these guys are blockers first, pass catchers, second. We're not going to get a guy who gets 6 catches for 60 yards. We'll be fortunate if he catches 50 for 500, which is what we got from Tonyan, who we just let leave in FA. I suspect we'll get a TE later in the draft who'll give us 35 for 400, but most of the time he's our 6th offensive lineman.

In the Offensive Order of Battle it's the RB with 50% (32) of the plays, the primary WR gets about another 15% (9-10), and all the other 'weapons' split up the remaining plays, about 20, between the other WRs and the TEs.

IMO, draft a starting tackle and put a horse in a jersey with an eligible number at TE and run behind these guys until teams stop you. Save the high pick for something else.

Couldn't agree more of course. Definitely don't want to trade up first round and if we were able to land an outstanding offensive tackle at 15 that would be great.

Going back and forth between trading 15th pick down and getting more picks in the 2nd or keeping it because I want to capitalize on the high draft position that we normally never have. But one thing for sure is I don't want to see any trading up unless it means getting more 2nd picks. Avoid the 3rd. ? Maybe not. Who knows. Maybe they'll get lucky this year.

Fantastic article and synopsis. Until….you went TE nuclear at 15 in Round 1. This isn’t a prudent decision as the top 5-7 TE’s in this draft all have similar gradings and collegiate production levels. Rounds 2-7. Fine. Round 1? Hell no. GPG! 👍👊🏈

Question: does our salary cap situation impact the decision to trade down in the draft for more picks? More picks equals more money going to rookie contracts, although of course picks in later rounds cost less money.

I know that we’ll lose $9 million if/when the Rodgers deals go through and that it won’t leave us with much money, but frankly cap money all seems like Monopoly money to me; seems like even cash-strapped teams find ways to get a deal done if they want it badly enough.

What do you think, capologists?

The draft is a big part of teams being able to field a team and still be under the salary cap. Cheaper, younger, but still very talented players. Players selected after the 3rd round are basically minimum salary players so it wouldn't hurt to have 10 picks in the last 4 rounds. The players still have to make the team but maybe 5 of them are better than what you have now. You still want the best 53.

As far as picking @ #15 or trading back for more picks, I would argue that 99% of the time unless some top 10 players fell to us @ 15, the talent level of the prospects at any position from 15 to 100 will be very close. especially at our critical positions of need, TE, Edge, and Safety. So, the smart, team building move, would be to trade back for more early picks. It shouldn't even be a thought to not do so.

Green Bay is not in a position this year to just say "Damn, picking a player @ #15 in the 1st round of the NFL draft is so SEXY that we should abandon the plan of rebuilding our team by trading back and getting more highly rated players to try filling all of the holes we have."

We are rebuilding and emotion should have no bearing on picking @ #15 or trading back to get 3 really good players instead of 1really good player. The #15 pick is not getting an ELITE player in almost every year, they are gone after top 10. Accept that and build the team.

It's about making an accurate assessment of if the position of the player we are considering picking @ #15 can be filled by the same talent level of a player @ #25 or #30 or #35 or #40, etc. For Green Bay, that is the best business move this year. A hypothetical trade back from #15 to say #20 or #25 or #30 would net us another 2nd round pick and at least another 4th round pick. Those are huge chances to add players we need.

I can't see the argument in favor of not trading back. The only player that would merit picking @ #15 is Bijan Robinson and 1/2 of us see the value and 1/2 don't. Some team WILL trade up to get him or Hendon Hooker and they will probably offer more than normal compensation than the trade chart specifies to get either of them. It happens every year. Some team will benefit because another team gets emotional caught up in thinking this player will get us to the next level. Why not Green Bay being the team getting rich with the extra picks?

This draft is about our future. With the Packers making the big business decision to move on from Rodgers now. And probably this is the last year for Bahktiari, AJ, Preston Smith, Savage, Campbell, etc. A new chapter is starting with the 2023 draft.