The Green Bay Packers announced that they will not use the franchise or transition tags on running back Aaron Jones this season. However, GM Brian Gutekunst indicated the team was still negotiating with Jones and trying to work out a long-term contract with their Pro Bowl running back.

The Packers now have a decision to make at the running back position regarding Jones. In a league that does not place a high premium on runners, Gutekunst needs to decide how much cap space the Packers are willing to dedicated to the position and if Jones is that special back who is worth a large investment.

If you ask Gutekunst, he would like to find a way to keep Jones in green and gold in 2021 and beyond. Recently, Gutekunst told reporters, “We would love to have Aaron back. I think he’s such an important part of our offense this year, he’s a dynamic player. He’s absolutely everything we want in a professional football player. So, we’d certainly like to bring him back.”

The numbers speak for themselves. Jones gained a career-high 1,104 yards this season despite missing two games. He averaged an impressive 5.5-yards per carry and caught 47 passes for another 355 yards. He ran for nine touchdowns and caught two more.

That was Jones’ second consecutive 1,000-plus yard season. In 2019, he rushed for 1,084 yards in 16 games and scored an NFL-best 16 rushing touchdowns. He also finished second on the team with 47 catches for an additional 474 yards and three receiving touchdowns.

According to several reports, the Packers have offered Jones roughly $9 million per year but the former UTEP star turned it down and is hoping to get more on the free agent market.

With the salary cap set at $182.5 million, the Packers have some tough choices to make. They clearly want Jones to return in an ideal situation. The question is how much is a running back like Jones worth in the modern NFL? There is little doubt Gutekunst can free up enough cap space to sign Jones by extending a few players and reworking the bonuses of a few others. But is this the wisest use of the cap for the Packers?

Here’s what Jones adds to the Green Bay offense:

1. Breakaway Speed

Jones is a home run threat. Any time he touches the football, he’s a threat to go all the way. In the last two seasons, he has six touchdowns of 20 yards or longer. Defenses must respect his ability to break long runs and when he does, it can often be extremely demoralizing for opposing defenses. The old saying is that speed kills and in Jones’ case, that is true.

2. Receiving Ability

Early in his career, Jones was not considered a reliable receiver by the Packers coaching staff. He worked hard to improve his receiving and now, Jones is a very capable pass catcher out of the backfield. Getting Jones the ball in space is always dangerous and he is capable of turning a short pass into a long gain if he gets a little room. His best receiving performance came against the Chiefs in 2019 when he caught seven passes for 159 yards and two touchdowns. Over the past two seasons, Jones has seven games where he had five or more catches. Aaron Rodgers knows he can rely on Jones to be in the right place for check down catches.

In addition, because Jones has the ability to both run the ball and catch passes, the Packers don’t have to give away their offensive intent when he’s in the backfield. If A.J. Dillon is in the lineup, opposing defenses know a run is more likely since Dillon remains unproven as a receiver. Jones gives head coach Matt LaFleur the ability to run or pass out of identical formations, something his offense is predicated on.

3. Blocking

Although his pass blocking was considered a liability early in his NFL career, Jones developed into a willing and capable blocker. He knows how to read blitzes well and can help give his quarterback more time to throw the ball when called upon. This is a skill valued by the Green Bay coaching staff and something that may Jones now provides to the team.

4. Chemistry and Knowledge of the System

Another thing Jones brings to the table is his knowledge of Matt LaFleur’s offense. We saw how the entire team made a substantial jump in the second season of LaFleur’s system. Bringing in a new player means that running back must start learning the system from scratch.

Jones is also a popular teammate because of his dedication and work ethic.

While these three benefits stand out, there are some drawbacks.

1. Size and Durability

While Jones is a dangerous running threat, he is not a large for a running back by modern NFL standards. Jones is listed at 5’9” and 205 pounds which makes his long-term durability an issue.

In his four NFL seasons, the Packers Pro Bowl runner has only played in all 16 games one time. He has never played in fewer than 12 games in any given campaign, but the Packers do have to try to pace Jones and make sure he doesn’t get overworked and is still fresh and ready to run late in the season and in the playoffs.

2. Age

These days, most NFL running backs don’t have lengthy careers. Jones will turn 27 before the 2021 season is over and while that’s not ancient for a running back, it is something to consider before signing him to a long-term contract.

Most NFL backs start to slow down before they reach 30 as the wear and tear on their bodies and the number of hits they take starts to slow them down. If Jones loses a step, he will lose one of his biggest assets: his speed.

If the Packers sign Jones to a four-year contract, they should anticipate that they won’t get the same level of performance in the final two years of the contract that they get in the first two.

The bottom line is that Gutekunst has a decision to make. If it takes $10-12 million per year to sign Jones, is that the best use of the Packers scarce cap money. If the Packers are all in for 2021 and want to win now while Rodgers’ is still an elite quarterback, signing Jones probably makes sense if the price isn’t too high. Of course, this means the team will probably pay the price a few years down the road.

Or would spending less but getting less production from the running back position be worthwhile if it frees up cap space to address other significant areas of need in 2021 and beyond?

It’s a difficult but crucial choice that Gutekunst needs to make. The outcome will go a long way towards determining the Packers short-term and long-term success.