Packers Periscope: Week 2 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Up periscope for week 2 versus the Seattle Seahawks.
By hobbes
The Past
I don’t want to talk about it and I’m betting you don’t either.
The Present
|
Overall Team Efficiency |
Packers |
Seahawks |
|
|
55.9% |
-32.6% |
||
|
Offense |
Overall |
54.5% |
-19.4% |
|
Run |
18.5% |
-5.7% |
|
|
Pass |
110.2% |
-23.7% |
|
|
Defense |
Overall |
4.2% |
14.3% |
|
Run |
24.7% |
-21.0% |
|
|
Pass |
-15.0% |
52.2% |
|
|
Special Teams |
5.6% |
1.1% |
|
|
Quarterback (DYAR) |
152 |
-62 |
|
(All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, click here for a detailed description of DVOA and DYAR. And as always defensive DVOA is the inverse of offensive DVOA so negative numbers are better.)
Technically DVOA at this point is just VOA since Football Outsiders don’t account for opponents until the 3rd game (my assumption is it’s about statistical variation, hence the Titans right now have the best DVOA since they clobbered the hapless Bucs last week)
While one game does a season not make, DVOA is definitely tilted in Green Bay’s favor for almost every category after week 1. The Packers ranked 1st on offense and 19th on defense while the Seahawks were 25th and 23rd respectively. Surprisingly the Seahawks did not run the ball all that effectively last week, while that may be unsurprising given how loaded the Rams defensive line is, the Seahawks in recent history have been able to impose their running game regardless.
While the Seahawks are known for their defense, they sure didn’t show it last week; while they were one of the best run defense teams (though they didn’t have much of a challenge as the Rams were forced to start their 3rd string running back) they also gave up a huge number of passing plays to Nick Foles and a bunch of gadget type receivers.
Based on the statistics, the biggest matchup is probably not Marshawn Lynch versus the Packers run defense but rather Eddy Lacy versus the Seahawks run defense. The Packers likely have a much higher chance to win the game if Lacy forces the Seahawks defense to respect the run.
The Future
The biggest issue for the Seahawks both short and long terms is financial. While GM John Schneider has been fantastic at acquiring talent, often with bold trades, it’s now time to pay up and there’s never enough money to pay everyone. The Seahawks have been aggressive in retaining their own players including Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner but also have Russell Okung and Bruce Irvin on deck.
However, the Seahawks may have opened up Pandora’s box by giving Marshawn Lynch more money while under contract. The direct result was Kam Chancellor sitting out (who will almost certainly not suit up for the Packers game) and if they cave as well, a floodgate of players may follow suit. While it might have been best to tighten the purse strings and save up money for to retain your own (i.e. the Ted Thompson method), the Seahawks instead went out and traded their best offensive linemen in Max Unger for tight end Jimmy Graham, whose contract is worth nearly double.
From a team perspective, the Seahawks can’t pay Wilson to not be the face of their franchise which means they have to throw the ball, hence the trade for Graham. The biggest question is can Wilson carry a team like Lynch? Can the defense maintain the legion of boom when everyone is looking to cash in? Furthermore, can the Seahawks replenish their ranks with cheap talent when they keep constantly trading high draft picks?
My opinion is that the Seahawks are at a turning point: they can either turn into a stable franchise who makes the playoff every year like the Packers and Patriots or they can be a flash in the pan like the 49ers a couple years ago. The Seahawks are no longer young and hungry, but can they maintain that edge?
Comments (30)
EddieLee
September 18, 2015 at 12:30 pm
Something doesn't smell right with this franchise. I think it starts with their coach who may be a good coach but is schetchy in the honesty/personality department. There seems to be a whole bunch of ego and selfishness all over that roster. Lynch and Sherman are faces of that franchise and both have odd a--hole personality quirks. Chancellor signs a contract not that long ago and wants the team to rip up less then half way through it. I'm just not sure they have a culture there that can maintain success.
DrealynWilliams
September 18, 2015 at 12:48 pm
I disagree with the majority but the maintaining success part. The guys you mentioned are the best players on their side of the ball on that team. This is a business. We don't know what those contract talks are like so we can't be quick to judge how those players act out when things don't look good for them. It wasn't that long ago when we could have had Lynch and before grabbing Lacy a lot of fans were still bringing up TT not giving up a 3rd for him. I don't think it's the players - I think it's the ownership/coaches that bring that out of players.
I wish this team had SOME of what the Seahawks Defense has and I'm not just talking about talent. What's the difference between Richard Sherman and Mike Daniels?
Do not forget that this is a business first and that a team can cut whoever and whenever they feel.
TarynsEyes
September 18, 2015 at 01:02 pm
"What's the difference between Richard Sherman and Mike Daniels? "
100+ lbs less in weight and the right to talk via his play.
hobbes
September 18, 2015 at 01:20 pm
"I wish this team had SOME of what the Seahawks Defense has and I'm not just talking about talent."
If you are referring to their identity or swagger, then you are going to be dissapointed. The Packers aren't built that way nor should they try to emulate the Seahawks. The Packers are a offense first, offense second and then maybe defense 3rd type of team because of Aaron Rodgers.
Also remember its a business for the players as well, they demand guaranteed contracts and bonuses for this reason.
DrealynWilliams
September 18, 2015 at 02:03 pm
Why would I be disappointed if the Pack had a similar identity or swagger of the Seahawks? How long have we (all Packers fans) been talking about how bad the defense is? What's been the only thing holding the Pack back? In 2010 the Pack had a top-what defense? The Seahawks have had a top-what defense these last few seasons?
Tackling
Communication
Discipline
Talent
What the Seahawks defense doesn't lack.
Please don't take this the wrong way. I'm no fan of the Seahawks and I'm not one of those asking for Dom Capers to be fired. I just recognize what the Pack lack on defense and it's been going on for quite a long time. We should be able to lose a player (any player) on defense and still be respectable. The second Clay goes down -- aww hell breaks loose. Let Sherman go down. Let Earl Thomas go down. Let Kam sit out. The Seahawks defense is still feared and respected. Most importantly - I bet they all truly believe they're still a #1 defense.
hobbes
September 18, 2015 at 03:04 pm
My point was more akin to the fact that you can't have it all, especially when you consider the salary cap. The Packers have invested much more money on offense than the Seahawks and it shows. The Seahawks have invested a lot more money on defense and it also shows.
The same could be said about the Packers offense: Jordy was lost to IR and the Packers are still feared and respected and I bet they still think they're offense is #1.
DrealynWilliams
September 18, 2015 at 04:17 pm
That's why I didn't say I wanted the players. I wanted the swagger/identity. The 2010 squad didn't have any big bank players on defense (not 100 percent sure). Maybe Charles Woodson via Free Agency? But I doubt it crippled the Pack from being able to sign/re-sign anyone. Clay was still on his rookie contract, right?
I think this Defense is set on just getting by because of Rodgers' greatness. That bend but don't break mentality.
We need some (more) of that dog attitude. That "soft" title was thrown around on both sides for a reason. The offense hasn't been labeled as such since Lacy's been here. The defense needs get it together. The opposing team needs a deep 3rd down conversion I bet they target the middle. No one is going to get popped.
hobbes
September 18, 2015 at 06:24 pm
Sure, but you can't have the swagger or identity without the players to back it up and then even if you do have the players to back it up, its not many times you end up with the legion of boom. The Bills, Jets and Lions all have fantastic defenses that carry their teams and they don't have the same swagger that the Seahawks have. I have no idea why that is, but as people have mentioned before, the Seahawks just seem different from everyone else.
"I think this Defense is set on just getting by because of Rodgers' greatness." They are and they've been built that way too. I don't see this as any different than Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson getting carried by the Ravens or Bucs defense. No team is complete and every team is going to have a unit being carried by another.
4thand1
September 18, 2015 at 07:06 pm
Its not just the seattle defense.The whole team gets it from Carroll. they have a smart ass attitude and they all trash talk, with the exception of Wilson. Young and cocky, they are good and they know it. Smash em in the mouth.
DrealynWilliams
September 18, 2015 at 09:45 pm
You can have that swagger and identity without having those players. We had it with the 2010 squad that helped win the SB. That was a Top 10 Defense. With just 1 All-Pro player ( Woodson)
"No team is complete and every team is going to have a unit being carried by another."
Wrong. The Patriots team last year had a Top 10 Offense AND a Top 10 Defense.
Again, I don't want the Legion of Boom. I want players out there with confidence and assurance. I bet you can't name the Bills, Rams, Jets (minus Revis) secondary without Googling. They have an identity and they have a swagger about them.
croatpackfan
September 18, 2015 at 03:58 pm
Sorry to disagree, but I think NIck Foles showed you how Seattle D looks like less Kam Chancelor... 31 point. And STL is not considered as the league best offense...
DrealynWilliams
September 18, 2015 at 04:33 pm
You go into this game expecting 31+ points against this Defense if you want to.
hobbes
September 18, 2015 at 01:05 pm
I agree, but it works so they're doing something right for the moment. I think their biggest test will be how well players buy in once they start faltering. It's pretty easy for big personalities to get along when they are winning. Just take a look at SF, they were a fantastic team, but Harbaugh vs. front office, the dissension within the offense (notably with Crabtree) and spate of suspensions and criminal charges have left SF a mess. Sure they might still have a winning season this year but they aren't the powerhouse they used to be.
DrealynWilliams
September 18, 2015 at 01:18 pm
"...but they aren't the powerhouse they used to be."
Could be said about every team every season.
For consistent success:
Stars
Role players
X-Factors
As long as there are horrible teams with big cash to spend those 3 will never stay on 1 team for more than 1 SB run.
hobbes
September 18, 2015 at 01:23 pm
Thus is the curse of the salary cap, good teams can't stay powerhouses forever.
I would argue that above all that consistent success has more to do with ownership and the front office. You can't be the Browns or Redskins with a screwball owner and a new front office/coaching staff every season and expect consistent success.
DrealynWilliams
September 18, 2015 at 02:04 pm
I agree with you.
hybridauth_Facebook_100004084225446
September 18, 2015 at 01:18 pm
That's why they play the games .........
Archie
September 18, 2015 at 01:18 pm
It's true that SEA is somewhat a strange bird. Teams that have achieved as much as the SEAHAWKS usually are pretty tough on the road. This team isn't. And now they are weak on the OL. Wilson is akin to Fran Tarkenton and Lynch and Graham is a nice 1-2 punch and their defense can play. Loss of Chancellor creates a big void. Bottom-line, SEA doesn't usually score lots of points, especially on the road. I am actually surprised by how many points they managed last week vs one of the NFL's best defenses despite all the sacks and shoddy OL play. Pack better come to play but if they do, it's winnable.
hobbes
September 18, 2015 at 03:06 pm
I agree with you, the Seahawks really don't fit the usual mold of a championship caliber team and I don't think many franchises are trying to do what they've done. Maybe Seattle has just gotten incredibly lucky but outside of maybe the use of big corners, I don't think many people are looking at them as a template for success.
Tundraboy
September 18, 2015 at 03:05 pm
Rodgers will lead the way. He has to be at his best for this one and I have a strong feeling he will. Whether it's enough. we'll see. Rest of team must step up for sure.
4thand1
September 18, 2015 at 03:05 pm
The Packers are built around #12. As he goes so do the Packers. They have to continue to play mistake free football, and nobody is better than AR at doing so. The int in Seattle , AR said he had a free play because Seattle jumped. No flag was thrown. By the way green machine, no QB usually has a good game in that noise infested stadium in Seattle. I'd be thrilled if the fans in Lambeau could muster half that noise. Free beer through the 1st quarter should do it.
Tundraboy
September 18, 2015 at 04:11 pm
Great idea on the beer.
EdsLaces
September 18, 2015 at 07:55 pm
It's a thought ....100,000 $ + thought ....but still a pretty decent one.
William Dickson
September 18, 2015 at 03:35 pm
relax and enjoy this weeks beat down. heard it here first. BEEEEEEEEEEAT DOWN
John Galt III
September 18, 2015 at 05:45 pm
Glad you dislike the Seahawks so much. Totally agree.
jh9
September 18, 2015 at 07:07 pm
Seahawks have too much distraction and the Packers have too much motivation... Packers 27 Seahawks 20
EdsLaces
September 18, 2015 at 08:20 pm
Lynch has 100 ...Jimmy has 100. AR has plenty of yards ....we pick off RW 1 time ...and that's the deciding factor. 24 21 pack....go pack go!
DrealynWilliams
September 19, 2015 at 10:42 am
What happened last...never mind.
porupack
September 19, 2015 at 02:05 am
Thomas,
As you point out, the DVOA stats you put up there are a bit problematic for an article on "Periscope" and 'what shall come to pass' on Week 2. Your bits on the Seattle future are interesting, and I agree somewhat. But I think it isn't that relevant to Game #2. I thought you would focus more on key match ups.
I think the ultimate fight is CMIII v Jimmy Graham. One will spy and key off what the other does. If CMIII patrols the middle, JG will decoy him off so Lynch gets play action. If CMIII bites in on Lynch, or rushes RW, then JG slips into the void for serious damage. CMIII will have challenge on whether to spy JG or RW. He'll have his hands full, but I think CMIII is the key to defense, and how he is used, and how he plays will be huge factor in the game. I think CMIII and JG are the two chess-pieces doing battle all game (the knights). Should be awesome for the strategists.
What other key match ups do you think make up the 3 top determinants of the game?
Daniels v Okung?
How does Seattle compensate for weak Oline (hint screens and bootlegs), so how does DC contain; a spy on RW? Who?
> Does MM run an assigned WR v Sherman; JJ or DAdams, and will he test Sherman or avoid his side so that the #2 WR has huge day? What is this best WR v Sherman matchup to get the best advantage for Rodgers?
> Is Rodgers (the TE) able to be a big impact?
> HHCD v JG?
> Is Ty Montgomery v Seattle coverage ready for highlight moment? (I think so).
> Crosby the hero? (I think so).
I really don't think Lynch will tilt the game as a RB, and he can have his 25 carries for 155 yards rushing and in fact let him do it and Seattle loses; but if seattle RBs have a night as receivers, the game arrow points Northwest.
Keys to the D-game: blanket JG; contain Lynch as receiver, contain RW from scramble.
Keys to O-game; DAdams on Sherman. RRodgers (as blocker and slipping through for seam routes and underneath Sherman's side. Steady Eddie pounding runs, and outlet passes.
Thus, home team wins.
hobbes
September 22, 2015 at 01:24 pm
I tried writing more on match ups last season and I felt the results were mixed. It was basically a coin flip as to whether or not the matchup was relevant during the game. Your example of Jimmy Graham and Clay Matthews was a logical and sensible pick but ultimately ended up not happening cause the Seahawks appear to have forgotten that they traded for Graham. In the end the Packers appeared to do nothing special for Graham, do nothing special for Lynch as a receiver but did get burned by Wilson on scrambles, which basically mirrors the results I got last season.
I figured rather than writing about match ups that has a decent chance of being a non-factor during the game, I went more with a statistics based matchup, which also allows fans to get a quicker and more broad look at the two teams. While fans might know the Packers run defense is atrocious, but I doubt many fans knew that the Seahawks have run the ball terribly this season (albeit the season being 1 game at this point), simply because historically they've done it well and it's Marshawn Lynch.