If the Green Bay Packers are going to repeat as NFC North Champions for a fifth-consecutive season it will likely be decided in a showdown with the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field on January 3^rd.

For fans of the Green Bay Packers the post-season has become an expected extension of the regular season.  Under the leadership of head coach Mike McCarthy and General Manager Ted Thompson the team has earned its way into the playoffs by laying claim to the NFC North crown the last four straight seasons – the first time the Packers have won four straight division titles since the league went to the divisional format in the Vince Lombardi era (1967).  The four-straight titles is an impressive feat that no other NFC team has duplicated over that time and only two others in the AFC (New England – Denver) have duplicated.

From 2009-2014 McCarthy has lead the Packers to one of the most successful records in team history, including a 73-33-1 record (.687) which also takes into account playoff appearances. The 73 total victories from 2009-14 ranks number two in the NFL trailing only the New England Patriots who totaled 80 over the same period of time.  Making the playoffs after the 2014 season was the Packers’ sixth straight playoff appearance.  Other than Green Bay, only New England has accomplished that feat. The mark of six-consecutive playoff appearances is tied for number-one in franchise history (1993-1998).

This season the NFC North has become a two-team race between the Packers and the Minnesota Vikings.  The Packers (9-4) now boast a one game lead over the Vikes (8-5) and currently own the tie-breaker based on their head-to-head victory on November 22 in Minnesota.  With only three games to play for each team it appears that the end-of-season finale with the Vikings will decide who will be crowned NFC North Champion and likely the third seed in the NFC playoff race based on each teams’ win-lose scenarios the remainder of the season.

The Packers play on the road in Oakland, at Arizona and finish out with that home contest against the Vikings.  The Vikings host the Bears this week followed by the New York Giants a week later before setting the stage for what almost surely will be a winner-take-all game on January 3.

Here are the possibilities:

1. Both the Packers and Vikings win or lose their next two – and Packers win the finale.  The Packers win the NFC North by way of a better overall record.
2. Both the Packers and Vikings win or lose their next two – and Vikings win the finale.  Their records would be identical at 11 -5.  Head-to-head would be tied at 1 -1. The next tie-breaker is record within the division.  The Packers would be 3 – 3 and the Vikings would be 4 - 2 or 5 – 1 and would emerge as NFC North Champions.
3. Packers and Vikings split their next two games.  The Packers would enter the final with a one game lead.  A win by the Packers and they outright win the NFC North - lose and the Vikings are NFC Champs based on the second tie-breaker (Packers 3 – 3 vs. Vikings 4 – 2 or 5 - 1 Division record).
4. Packers lose their next two and Vikings split their two.  Their records are identical going into the final game (9 – 6) thereby creating a winner-take-all scenario based on the final record (10-6 vs. 9-7).
5. The Packers lose their next two and The Vikings win their next two - winner takes all.  Packers would enter one game behind but end up in a tie with the Vikings with a win.  The take the crown based on head to head competition.  Vikings win and they are NFC Champs based on a better record.

There are only two scenarios whereby the final game does not factor in the NFC North title (correction here).  In that case the NFC Champion would win based on best overall record and no tiebreaker as outlined here:

1. Vikings lose their next two and the Packers win their next two – Packers take the crown regardless of the outcome of the finale.  The Packers would take a three game lead (11-4 vs. 8-7) into the final game and would be crowned NFC North champs on the basis of the better record no matter which team wins.
2. The Packers split their next two and the Vikings lose their two.  The Packers would hold a two game lead (10 – 5 vs. 8 – 7) and would enter the finale as the NFC North Champion regardless of the outcome.

Duplicate the embarrassing performance of their home losses to the Bears and Lions and their playoff ride could be a short one.   Play smart tough football - with an awakened offense - like they showed against the Cowboys and they should repeat as NFC North Champs. 

The fate of the Packers lies in their own hands.  All they must to is win.  Easier said than done.