Packers vs. Panthers: Saturday Scoop

The Green Bay Packers head to Charlotte this weekend to take on the Carolina Panthers.  The schedule makers sure did hit the jackpot as far as marquis matchups this late in the season, tabbing the Packers to face two undefeated teams in a row on the road.  Last week, the Denver Broncos ate the Packers' lunches. . . and dinner and breakfast the next day too.  This week, Carolina is riding high after a Monday night win over the Indianapolis Colts in the rain.

Packers fans and media have spent the last six days dissecting and discussing everything that is wrong with the Packers right now.  The offense is struggling, the defense has lots its way and "did we overestimate this team?".  Yet, this is still a 6-1 football team with a lot of season left.  Winning games on the road in the NFL isn't easy.  Beating good teams is another level of challenging.  Last week, many were optimistic that Green Bay could hang with the Broncos and many expected them to win.  This week, there are still a number of experts and analysts who are taking the Packers to bounce back against the Panthers.  Vegas has Green Bay as a 2.5 favorite.

That's a lot of optimism for a team that looked like it was in Denver to do anything but play a football game last week on national television.  I don't think anyone realistically thought the Packers would run the table on their regular season schedule, but there was next to nothing to point to in that game that was positive.  Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a career-worst day and didn't even hit 100 yards passing.  He looked disinterested and frustrated much of the night.  Certainly not the Rodgers that we're used to seeing.  The big question is whether Rodgers still uses a performance like that and the questions it raises as motivation the following week.  There was a time when Rodgers had the proverbial chip on his shoulder and came out and played like he had something to prove.  It remains to be seen whether that guy is in Carolina this weekend.

The Panthers looked like they were having a blast in the rain last week.  The game was close throughout and the Colts surged at the end to tie the game and send it to overtime.  Even in the face of adversity and a tight contest, Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was laughing and having a good time.  Carolina was playing loose and confident.  They don't seem to have the same level of overall talent as do the Packers, but together, they're putting together a nice 2015 campaign.  They have every reason to be riding high even with one of the tougher tests in that of Green Bay coming to town.

The other frustrating aspect of the Packers stinker in Denver was that they had quite a few guys return from injury following the bye week.  Morgan Burnett, Davante Adams, B.J. Raji and Nick Perry were all active after missing some time previously.  It didn't matter one bit last week.  This week, the Packers could be without cornerbacks Sam Shields (shoulder) and Quinten Rollins (neck) as well as receiver Ty Montgomery (ankle).  The loss of Shields would be the biggest to a Packers defense that desperately needs his speed.  Damarious Randall likely would fill in for Shields on the outside, which isn't as big of a drop-off, as Randall has moved outside when Casey Hayward has moved into the slot in nickel and dime coverage.  With no Shields, however, Hayward would be called upon on the outside opposite Randall and that hasn't proven to be a good place for Hayward to be.  There has been some talk that the Packers may try Demetri Goodson on the outside due to his speed.  Panthers receiver Ted Ginn, Jr. has wheels and can get behind a defense.

The bigger issue (no pun intended) is tight end Greg Olsen.  Olsen has had some good games against the Packers both with the Panthers and during his days with the Chicago Bears.  He's not a burner, but he has enough speed to get past a linebacker in coverage and the size to out-muscle a defensive back.  The Packers won't likely find success trying to match Hayward or Micah Hyde up with Olsen so look for one of the safeties to help out in that capacity.  But watch out.  Taking a safety away from the line leaves more running room for Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert.  Carolina has one of the top rushing attacks in the league and let's not forget that a lot of that production has come from Newton.  Will the Packers ever get a break from facing teams who run the read option?  It doesn't seem like it.  Even Peyton Manning lined up in the pistol last week.  And rightfully so.  The Packers are going on their fourth season in a row still not seeming to have the best ability to hang with that system.  Opposing offensive coordinators seem to do a good job of scheming opportunities for their quarterback to run or find a sweet spot in the middle of the field.  With Clay Matthews still listed as questionable, as of Friday, it's not likely that he'll be very effective in coverage if he does play.  

I mentioned the Carolina run game and this is an area the Packers have to find a way to produce at on offense.  Eddie Lacy and James Starks are a big key to neutralizing a very active Carolina front and opening opportunities in the passing game.  The same offensive line that opened lanes on the regular in 2014 isn't finding the same success this year.  Opposing defenses eventually catch up with good offenses and the league seems to have thwarted the Packers running attack enough that they aren't sticking with it much, even with a lead or a small deficit.  Lacy has struggled through an ankle injury and doesn't look to be 100%.  Starks had a nice day against the San Diego Chargers before the bye, but I'd like to see him get a few screen opportunities on Sunday.

As far as the Packers passing attack, it's still all about Rodgers.  He's been forced to try and get the ball into windows much tighter than he's used to or comfortable with.  Add in Rodgers' typical risk-averse style and you have the lite version of a passing game.  The receivers said they just need to get open and had a bad game against the Broncos.  Denver's secondary is one of the best in the league, but the Packers are just not firing on all cylinders offensively right now.  Josh Norman is Carolina's best defensive back and they also have some savvy veterans in safety Roman Harper and cornerback Charles Tillman.  The Packers are all-too familiar with Tillman after facing him twice each season when he was with the Bears.  He's aging and not what he used to be, but Tillman still has something to offer the Carolina defense a la Charles Woodson in Oakland.  The task for the Packers will not be an easy one.  The lack of a tight end allows defenses to allocate more resources to the wide receivers and also in cheating up against the run.  Oh how the Packers long for the days of Jermichael Finley and Jordy Nelson.  This would be a good week for Adams to break out of his shell and regain some of that late-2014 form.

The Packers, plain and simple, just need to show up ready to play and ready to kick some tail.  Road game or not, hostile crowd or not, they have to find a way to compete for 60 minutes and get on the plan home one win richer.  They have the guys and talent to do it, but they only get one shot at it.

Gut Feeling of the Week

I normally have one that has been coming to me regularly by now.  This week, I had to pause and think for a minute.  A few pop into my head:  I keep seeing a late turnover being a problem for the Packers in this contest.  If they can avoid giving the ball away, I like Green Bay's chances.  The offense needs to hold onto the ball and keep Newton off the field.  They have to keep him under 50 yards running to give themselves a decent shot to get a win.

A win in this game would do a lot for the Packers, on many levels.  A loss will likely send the fan base into full-on threat level midnight panic, but in reality, it can be overcome and the season is still very much in Green Bay's own control.  The question is, how easy do the Packers want to make the rest of this season for themselves? 

We'll find out some of what this team is made of in a day's time.

 

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Jason is a freelance writer on staff since 2012 and also co-hosts Cheesehead TV Live, Pulse of the Pack and Pack A Day podcasts.  You can follow him on Twitter here

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Comments (4)

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PETER MAIZ's picture

November 07, 2015 at 09:18 pm

I will be jubilant if we can get a first quarter lead, say 10 zip. If that happens, we'll win.

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tm_inter's picture

November 07, 2015 at 11:43 pm

I'm worried about Cam Newton as runner. He's 6'5" and 255 lbs - just a bit smaller than Rob Gronkowski - and will be difficult to tackle. I hope Clay Matthews will stop him.

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Hematite's picture

November 08, 2015 at 05:40 am

We will have to see what adjustments McCarthy makes to the offense and if Aaron Rodgers buys into those adjustments.
The defense is what it is, not very good.
It's going to be up to the offense to win this game.

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Dan Stodola's picture

November 08, 2015 at 09:55 am

This game will be completely different than Denver. On the surface it looks similar, on the road against a tough D. However, Carolina doesn't have the edge rushers that Denver had nor do they have the CB talents that Denver did. Denver could play Press coverage and man up. Carolina has one good CB and plays mostly zone anyway. THey don't have the same ability to press the WR and man coverage after the press. This will actually be a game the Packers may not need to make any adjustments for. The WR should be able to separate better, Rodgers will have more pressure in front of him, but will be able to get out of the pocket to make plays.

Cobb and the WR should be able to find a lot more room. R. Rodgers playing against his Father the Safeties coach for Carolina, may be able to find soft spots in the zones and make a couple plays for a change.

This game will be much different than Denver, still a tough hard fought game, but much different.

Packers W 27-20.

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