People Forget: Packers Move Towards Camp as "Dogs"
By Ross Uglem
It can certainly be argued that the internet has removed the utility of the newsstand preview. Not the fantasy preview, of course those have utility. Many drafts still have the "old" rules. No computers, no phones. Everyone in the room with a draft board and a few permanent markers, cheat sheets and magazines only. It makes for a better draft, otherwise everyone just ends up picking off of ESPN or NFL.com's default rankings. I'm talking about the NFL previews. "New" rosters, position by position breakdowns and grades and predictions with a few feature articles .
The thing is, though, I still buy them. They're sold at the hardware store right by our lake cabin and they still work as coffee table books or "bathroom" reading. What I'm about to say of course is the oldest, lamest "fan" thing to do in the world. The stuff I read didn't have my favorite team at the top, so it must be wrong.
Sometimes though, they really are wrong:
lmaoooooo pic.twitter.com/hRaLZjfaU1
— Ross Uglem (@RossUglem) June 8, 2018
All joking aside, two of the three preview mags that are in circulation at the Uglem households currently pick the Packers to finish third in the division, and one second. The Minnesota Vikings, despite achieving back to back winning seasons just once since the turn of the millenium were the choice in all three, with Detroit as the runner up in the two I mentioned before.
All in all, this is an extremely small sample size, and just the opinion of three random writers. Green Bay and Minnesota are, or at least were tied with the same Super Bowl odds at 12:1. The general consensus is a toss up.
There are a number of reasons to disagree with that. As I've mentioned, the Minnesota Vikings, under this or any other front office / coaching staff situation have shown absolutely no ability to sustain any type of success. In addition to the inability to put together back to back winning seasons, Minnesota hasn't won back to back playoff games in my lifetime. I am just two weeks younger than Nate Solder. Think about that.
The Vikings are again put together by their Madden GM Rick Spielman. The starters are very good, but almost no attention has been paid to depth or the salary cap. A nearly identical roster to the one Minnesota has now went 8-8 in 2016 with a 1st place schedule after a few injuries. The Vikings have a 1st place schedule after last season. The Vikings' defense (the heart and sould of their team) achieved an incredible 171 / 176 starts from their preferred starters on "D". That injury luck is both incredible and unsustainable. Minnesota also went from the 1st (DVOA) / 9th (PFF) ranked QB in Case Keenum to the 18th (DVOA) / 19th (PFF) ranked QB in Kirk Cousins despite increasing what they paid Keenum a season ago by 1400%.
People also forget just how good Green Bay was before Rodgers got hurt last year. Yes, the Packers proved (despite a lot of injuries outside of Rodgers), that they were not a talented enough roster to win more games than they lost with poor quarterback play. Brett Hundley gave them poor quarterback play. Dom Capers gave them poor defensive play. The Packers weren't good enough.
The reality is, though, that before Rodgers was injured in Minnesota, Green Bay had gone 12-2 in their last 14 games including two playoff wins and their only two losses coming to the same team (Atlanta). This included double digit victories over both Minnesota and Philadelphia, the NFC's two NFC Championship participants a season ago. Things may have gotten out of hand when the QB went down, but with the QB, this team wasn't good, it was elite.
They're better than they were then, too. The Packers used a 7-9 season to have a draft recognized as one of the very best in the league. Other positions were overhauled and upgraded through free agency. Joe Philbin is a better offensive coordinator than Edgar Bennett. Mike Pettine is better than Dom Capers too, and by a wider margin. The personnel has also been upgraded. See below:
Green = An upgrade at the position outright or a young player on a rookie deal who can be reasonably expected to develop / improve
Yellow = Same player or a player expected to have the same impact
Red = Team got worse at this position, or at the very least unproven.
The bottom line is that Green Bay has won either the NFC North or the Super Bowl in six of the last eight seasons. They've advanced the furthest in the playoffs in eight of the last nine seasons. They have the best player in the National Football League. That player has led them to divisional dominance and nine playoff wins in the decade. They've been the standard. They're the real division favorites to anyone who is really paying attention and not just writing down the last thing they saw as a prediction.
That's fine, though. The Eagles made an entire Super Bowl run about being underdogs. The Packers have spent most of Rodgers' time in Green Bay with a 1st place schedule and a bullseye on their backs. Let Kirk Cousins (lol) wear one for the first few weeks.
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Ross Uglem is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @RossUglem
Comments (24)
Mojo
June 18, 2018 at 01:38 pm
Most sports previews are simply a person rehashing and abiding by the previous years ending standings then tweaking a few teams up or down.
They really haven't studied the personnel of every team in the league. They might know their local team fairly well and some division rivals, but only vaguely the other teams and then with a focus on the house-hold name players.
If one of their draft crushes landed on a certain team they might throw some love that way, else most of their analysis focuses on maybe a quarter of a teams roster - if that.
So simply pick who won last year, sprinkle in a couple of dark horses to rise and a couple of older teams to fade and voila - there you have it - this years projections.
It's lazy and predictable, but it gets product out.
Electric Packerland
June 18, 2018 at 02:21 pm
I agree completely. To illustrate your point, just this morning I heard a pundit on some national sports radio broadcast say the Packers don't have a running game this season. Excuse me??? I'd say most of us fans are pretty excited about the possibilities of our 2nd year guys who were much more than serviceable last year taking that 2nd year jump, along with Ty who does so many things well and D. Mays who gives us good depth. Those writers often just don't do their homework.
Oppy
June 19, 2018 at 09:24 am
The irony is, as soon as I see "NEXT >" or "Begin SlideShow>", I immediately close the browser window and look for a real article. Lol, they'll get no clicks from me 99% of the time.
GBPDAN1
June 18, 2018 at 03:31 pm
I like the underdog roll. Our team will play with a chip on their shoulders.
That week 2 home game with the Queens is huge ! Go Pack
TheVOR
June 18, 2018 at 05:33 pm
If we stay healthy, which granted, is unlikely, I think they'll go right back to winning the north.
The world aligned itself for the Vikings last year, and they couldn't get it done, and in fact couldn't really win against the Saints at home. They were beaten! You can't keep relying on miracles to advance your football team.
Cousins is granted a decent QB, but it's not like Keenum had a bad yea, it's not really a QB play issue in Minnesota.
They're a solid team, but just another solid team on a schedule. You're either good enough, or you're not. Looking at all this stuff on paper is meaningless if they can't play together, play well, and stay healthy.
GB entering this season as a dog is humorous.
Oppy
June 19, 2018 at 09:29 am
Minnesota is a decent team with a very good defense that not only enjoyed unheard of health on their D, but also faced a completely injury decimated and down year for the NFC in general.
I expect the Vikings to have a good year in 2018, but I don't believe for a second they will be dominant or that this is a long-term trend developing.
Vikings: Perennial bed sh****rs.
GBPDAN1
June 18, 2018 at 06:26 pm
Boy, that BiQueens D sure looked good when it counted in the NFC championship game......NOT !
Additionally, the Packers would have easily beaten the Queens at Lambeau last year if Rodgers was playing. Our tattered, depleted, D held them to 16 pts and it would have been less if Hundley wasn't turning the ball over.
Since'61
June 18, 2018 at 04:09 pm
Just look back and see how many of those alleged pundits picked the correct division winners and playoff winners over the last several years. They have deadlines to meet and they go with the most obvious and most convenient approaches to meet their deadlines.
They add little value but at least they are quiet compared with the shouting airheads on ESPN, the NFL network, Fox, CBS, etc.
None of this is about the game. It's all about getting readers, click bait, and/or ratings depending on the venue and of course $$$$. Thanks, Since '61
Spock
June 19, 2018 at 09:28 am
Since '61, "shouting airheads". I wish I could give you more thumbs up for that (accurate) description! Well said.
Lphill
June 18, 2018 at 04:21 pm
So Kirk Cousins who has won nothing is going to lead the Vikings to the promise land? As long as the temperature stays above 50 .
Remember he said he doesn't like the cold , did he not know where then Bears and Packers play?
Bearmeat
June 18, 2018 at 06:03 pm
THANK YOU! You just articulated what I've been shouting from the rooftops all offseason. Yes, the Vikings are very good. No, they're not world-beaters. No, they won't repeat last season's success, nor improve on it. Yes, Green Bay will be better. Yes, this likely means that Green Bay wins the NFCN.
People get on me for being "negative." I'm just calling out perceived holes in the roster that could keep Green Bay from being a SUPER BOWL champion.
The division is not what I'm worried about. I expect to win it every year.
4thand1
June 18, 2018 at 08:59 pm
The Eagles at the end of the season gave a blueprint on how to attack the queens defense. Don't think teams won't notice. Cousins is the most overpaid player in the NFL, the pressure is on him. I see the Packers going 7-1 at home with 4 roads wins. Either way no worse than 11-5, I say 12-4. I like being a dog, ruff ruff. GOPACKGO
jeremyjjbrown
June 19, 2018 at 03:11 am
Well, the Eagles used the short passing game, rub routes, slants, crossing patterns, etc to open things up and then Zimmer refused to adjust. Bennett and McCarthy have adverse to those routes and have been similarly stubborn to adjust far too often.
Here's to hoping Joe Philbin can bring some flexibility back to the Packers Offense.
Bure9620
June 19, 2018 at 12:59 am
I am a firm believer in your are champion until someone else says otherwise. Yet, I am somewhat confused by my Vikings friends notion of "we are better at every position." Argument. The Vikings are good, not great. Great teams don't get blown out in the NFCCG and get outplayed at home by the Saints. I actually think the Packers take back the division, but I get the underdog role, won't argue right now. Also, losing Shermer is going to show this year, it's totally new systelm and new QB, there WILL be growing pains. Also, Cousins nedds to build chemistry and that does not happen right away.
jeremyjjbrown
June 19, 2018 at 03:14 am
The Vikings where big benefactors of last years week NFC North. I don't think winning the NFC North will be so easy this season. Chicago is drafting well, Detroit has a real HC and in GB Rodgers is back and Capers and Bennett are gone.
Oppy
June 19, 2018 at 09:55 am
The entire NFC was down last season.
NickPerry
June 19, 2018 at 04:58 am
'The Vikings' defense (the heart and soul of their team) achieved an incredible 171 / 176 starts from their preferred starters on "D"."
That's just 5 starts lost over an entire 16 game season lost on the defense. Christ the Packers lose 5 games from preferred starters by week two most seasons!! THAT'S just unbelievable when you think about it. That's the number of games Morgan Burnett missed 3 years ago by HIMSELF and one shy of what he missed last year...
The Vikings IIRC also had unbelievable luck at the O-Line positions, WR, and TE positions. Yes they lost Cook but they also had Murray and McKinnen to step in without losing to much. I've mentioned this in other comments about Cousins..His QB rating has gone down each year since his best season in 2015 when he still won ONLY 9 games AND BTW was eliminated by the Packers in the Playoffs. Cousins record as a starter is 26-30-1. ONLY in Minnesota does a team give the farm to a player with a LOSING record!
The reality of it all is Minnesota Fans are scared S***less this season. They all KNOW the Vikings haven't been able to win on a consistent basis since the 60's and 70's. I like being ranked 9th by the "Experts" this year in the Power Ratings. I like being picked 3rd to win the NFC North. Now it won't take long to prove these "Experts" wrong but I'm all for whatever extra motivation they give to the Packers in 2018.
Bearmeat
June 19, 2018 at 08:39 am
I fully expect the Queens to regress this year. It's in their DNA. They had all the injury luck in the world, and Cousins is just not a top 10 QB. They're going to run into cap hell - starting next year - and they're going to lose some of their best defensive players. Their OL blows goats. They have 2 very good WRs and bunch of schlock.
Not buying it.
Green Bay wins the division in 18 and runs away with it in 19 - unless Chicago continues to improve. Vikings peaked last year and it's all downhill. :)
Spock
June 19, 2018 at 09:39 am
I'm not crazy about the schedule putting the Packers against NFC foes with the first two games when the teams are (essentially) still in "preseason" form due to the limitations of practicing under the current players agreement. That said, if (Who am I kidding, WHEN) the Packers win those two games this season could be sweet as the defense and offense jell together for the second half of the schedule!
I'm more excited about this season than I have been for a long time. Go, Pack, Go!!!!!!!!
Hawg Hanner
June 20, 2018 at 02:42 pm
Very well written article! The two red dots you awarded on defense with the departure of Nelson who was awful
and at guard where we have depth and also a multi position FA seem unwarranted. I think we are red at left tackle only.
Rak43
June 21, 2018 at 02:06 am
I've been saying the exact same thing amongst many naysayers. The Packers were 12-2 before Rodgers got hurt and this team should be infinitely better with an influx of young athletic talent and veteran proven leadership. "THE" biggest changes or upgrades imho are the hirings of Philbin and Pettine who are quantum leaps ahead of Capers and Bennett in every way right now. I truly expect the Packers to pick right up where they left off once Rodgers got hurt.
dobber
June 21, 2018 at 08:04 am
In an offensive league, having the biggest offensive difference maker in the league is huge.
TKWorldWide
June 21, 2018 at 09:52 am
This is one scenario in which being offensive is a positive.
richard_kilroy
August 22, 2020 at 10:51 am
The Minnesota Vikings have tagged safety back Anthony Harris as a franchise player for the 2020 season.
“Minnesota has become my home and this is where I want to continue to develop. This is just the start for me! Smith wrote on social media. The 28-year-old Harris has spent his entire five-season career with the Vikes so far. He joined the team in 2015 as an undrafted free agent. In 14 games last year, Harris totaled 60 tackles and knocked down 11 assists. He also had six interceptions, the highest in the NFL.
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