We’re back! After spending last week looking at 3rd & long and talking about the philosophy around how you approach that down & distance, we’re stuck in a murky middle-ground this week. That’s right; we’re talking 3rd & medium (4-6 yards to go). 

I say murky middle-ground because of what you’re realistically trying to accomplish in this down and distance. With 3rd & long, you can make a call based on your 4th down philosophy. Maybe you decide you’re comfortable with a play that will pick up 90% of the needed yards because you know you’ll go for it on 4th down. But 3rd & medium? If you’re throwing short of the sticks here, it’s likely a concept you like a lot for short-yardage situations, so you don’t necessarily want to burn it here. 

Let’s look at how the Packers did on 3rd & medium in 2022.

They faced this situation 2.8 times per game, 25th in the league. “They didn’t face this too many times per game, so it should be easy to find 3 concepts that worked for them, right?"

Wrong. They were not particularly successful in this area. They picked up a 1st down 39.6% of the time, 21st in the league. To make that look even worse, they needed an average of 4.7 yards to get the 1st down, tied for second lowest in the league (the Patriots faced the longest distance with 5.2 yards). However, they only gained an average of 4.3 yards per play, 28th in the league.

The Packers had a passing rate of 85.4% on this down and distance, which is actually fairly low from a leaguewide perspective. That ranked them 26th in the league in terms of passing % on 3rd & medium. The Dolphins didn’t dial up a single run in this down and distance all season. (Just wanted to make sure I put this in here before people started saying “they should run more in this situation.”)

Alright. Enough of all that. Let’s look at the plays.

Passes

Follow-Slant (8.0 YPA)

This is one of my favorite concepts, as simple as it is powerful. The inside receiver runs a slant, then the outside receiver follows with a slant. The QB reads this inside-out. If the defender over the inside slant follows to the middle, throw the follow slant. If the defender over the inside slant holds in place or fades back under the follow, throw the first slant.

Rely on your playmakers to create space and create a quick, easy read for the QB. Sounds like a winner to me.

A little follow-slant on 3rd & medium from the trips side. The #3 receiver runs a now slant, bringing his defender with him to the middle. The #2 receiver pushes vertically for a couple steps then attacks the vacated space. pic.twitter.com/FvcZ5N9yyA

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) May 24, 2023

Sail (8.7 YPA)

Seeing this concept off a straight dropback from the QB is a little like when you saw your kindergarten teacher in the grocery store: you knew you recognized them, but it took your brain a minute to register what it was seeing. They live at the school, right?

Anyway, the Packers run this concept almost exclusively off their play action bootleg look. It’s one of the keys to their entire offense, but you rarely see it in this state. One thing I like about this is that you have the ability to attack the main flood concept (choosing between the clear-out/go route, deep corner route or flat route). But if that’s covered up, the QB can work back to the backside dig in a way that he can’t if he’s rolling towards the main concept.

Always weird seeing this concept without the play action bootleg. I always tag it as something like "Smash (Layered)" then stare at it for 2 minutes before I correct myself.
Nobody cares about this. pic.twitter.com/sCy1pKNNTS

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) May 24, 2023

RPOs

Inside Zone/Stick (8.0 YPA)

As I’ve talked about before, the Packers’ RPO game mainly consisted of pre-snap reads, and this one is no different. The QB will look at the Stick/quick-out receiver in the slot before the snap and make a decision to hand off the ball or throw based on the leverage of the defender. If the defender is playing inside leverage and the QB likes the match-up, he’ll throw. If the defender is playing straight-up or outside leverage, he’ll hand the ball off.

A little RPO for ya. Inside Zone with the Stick/quick-out option on the left. As is the case with most of these, it's a pre-snap determination on the throw, based on match-up and leverage. pic.twitter.com/IKVMwwBsvx

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) May 24, 2023

If you missed the prior installments, no worries! I've gathered them all here.

The Introduction
1st & 10
2nd & long
2nd & medium
2nd & short
3rd & long

Albums listened to: Sarah Bethe Nelson - Weird Glow;boygenius - The Record; My Lucky Day - All Shimmer in a Day; Eliza Hardy Jones - Because Become