Welcome back to The Call Sheet, where we’re looking back on the 2022 season by seeing what concepts worked by down and distance. Today, we find ourselves looking at 3rd & short (1-3 yards needed for a 1st down). 

The nature of this down and distance had me look at the numbers a little different. Up until this point, I’d been looking at Yards Per Attempt as the main metric. After all, yards are important. And, outside of last week’s look at 3rd & medium, we really have been trying to maximize yards. Even on 3rd & long, I wanted concepts that would get us within striking distance on a 4th & short than I was about getting the 1st down itself.

For 3rd & short, the more important metric shifted - for me - to 1st Down Rate. I don’t particularly care if we pick up a lot of yards here: I just want the 1st down. Again, this goes to the question of overall philosophy on a down and distance. I’m very much in favor of going for it on 4th & short, but, if I’m in 3rd & short, I’d prefer to pick up the 1st down here if I can. Call me old fashioned.

Part of that goes to the Explosive Rate the Packers had on 3rd & short in 2022. They generated an explosive play on 8.8% of their 3rd & short situations in 2022, tied for 19th in the league. If that number was higher, maybe I’d be in favor of doing some big game hunting here. As it stands for now, give me the concepts that give me the best shot at a 1st down.

Before we get to the concepts, let’s take a quick look at how the Packers did on 3rd & short overall in 2022. They faced 4 3rd & short situations per game, tied for 9th in the league. They had an average gain of 5.1 yards (7th in the league), but a 1st down rate of only 57.4% (tied for 22nd in the league).  They went with a more run-heavy approach, running on 52.9% of their plays.

For the concepts, I’ll list how many times they ran it in this situation in 2022 and the 1st down %.

Alright. Let’s get to our plays.

Passes

PA Boot (3 times, 100%)

This is not typically a concept the Packers use on 3rd down. In fact, they didn’t use it a single time on 3rd down in 2022. However, since it’s so closely tied to the Wide Zone run action, it makes a lot of sense to use it on 3rd & short. After all, if 3rd & short is a situation where defenses are looking for a run a little more than they normally would, it seems natural to use play action to take advantage of that aggressiveness.

Defenses have been able to make this concept less effective on early downs by not caring as much about taking away the run. But if they have to care about the run, suddenly they’re triggering on the run a little quicker, opening up those passing lanes.

PA Boot Sail on 3rd & short. I love using Watson as the slicer, and I'm always a fan of them working in the Slam route. That's Lazard on the left side, giving a little chip/release then turning to look for space to work. pic.twitter.com/OpOIZyjjNp

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) May 31, 2023

RPOs

Inside Zone/WR Screen (8 times, 62.5%)

This was the Packers most-used RPO for this down & distance in 2022, and for good reason. It gives you two ways to attack the defense: vertical run or horizontal pass. If you like what the defense is giving you up front, hand the ball off. If you like what you have in the passing game, throw the ball.

They’ll typically decide to throw the ball if they have a numbers advantage to the passing side, but sometimes they’ll still hand if off if they have an advantageous look up front. Again, we’re not looking for anything big here. Just get the 1st down and live to see another set of downs.

Inside Zone/WR Screen RPO. The Packers typically throw this based off pre-snap numbers to the pass side. In this case, they have a 3-to-2 advantage, but the defense is showing a gap on the run, so they hand off in this instance. pic.twitter.com/87IklzoLgO

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) May 31, 2023

Runs

Inside Zone (8 times, 75%)

The shortest path between two points is a straight line. When it’s 3rd & short, sometimes you don’t need to overthink it. Look to open up gaps in the middle of the line and have your RB go to work. 

On 3rd & short, sometimes you just want to get a wall of large men moving forward then slam a RB behind them. pic.twitter.com/nt8FzhQgkx

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) May 31, 2023

Wide Zone (2 times, 50%)

It kind of surprised me how few times the Packers ran Wide Zone on 3rd & short. If we really are looking at PA Boot being more of a 3rd down concept as soon as this year, it makes sense for Wide Zone to be dialed up a bit as well.

One of the things I liked seeing throughout the 2022 season was how the Packers Wide Zone game changed. The core blocking was kept roughly the same, but they started mixing in tight ends to act as pulling linemen to attack different areas of the line. They also had some fun mixing in some different pitches to get the RB a better angle to the edge.

As I’ve mentioned numerous times, I tend to get a little generic with my run tags. I tend to group Wide Zone and Outside Zone together, so the clip below is more Outside Zone than Wide Zone (the difference being the aiming point of the running back).

Man, this is just beautiful. pic.twitter.com/Wf81HH8Jym

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) May 31, 2023

Earlier this week, I dug into how often the Packers have thrown deep during the LaFleur era and how they did. Head over to Packer Report and check that out if you’re so inclined.

As we begin to wind down this call sheet series, feel free to go back through the entries we’ve already done. I hope you all have learned half as much as I have.

The Introduction
1st & 10
2nd & long
2nd & medium
2nd & short
3rd & long
3rd & medium

Albums listened to: Soundgarden - Superunknown; Miya Folick - ROACH; The Lonely Wild - Chasing White Light; Wye Oak - Civilian