The Lass Word: It Will Come Down To Quarterback Play
Which one will rise to the occasion?
By KenLass
The winner of the game between the Bears and the Packers on Sunday will be determined by which team’s quarterback plays better.
That’s not a particularly profound statement. It could probably be said of any NFL game. But it seems especially true in this situation. That’s because the strength of both quarterbacks plays to the weakness of the opposing defense.
It may surprise you to learn that Green Bay’s defense has actually given up fewer points this year than the Bears. It’s just a one point difference, the Packers yield 21.1 per contest while Chicago allows 22.6. Green Bay has also given up fewer passing yards than the Bears. But it should not surprise you that the big difference is in run defense. Chicago actually leads the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed per game. The Packers are 28th.
The strength of Bears quarterback Justin Fields is his ability to run. The former Ohio State star has rushed for 630 yards this season, second only to Lamar Jackson among quarterbacks. Fields’ ability to run is especially effective on third and fourth down, where he has run for first downs or touchdowns 39 times. Sometimes his ability to escape is breath taking. There was a play last week against the Falcons where two pass rushers broke through the protection unblocked and had Fields dead to rights for a big sack. Linebacker Deion Jones blew in untouched, but as he grabbed the quarterback, Fields ducked and turned, causing Jones to fly over the top of him. Immediately after that escape defensive end Marlon Davidson had both arms wrapped around him, but Fields twisted and stepped out of the tackle. He then burst downfield for a thirteen yard gain. That’s why the Bears frequently design running plays for him. Fields’ greatest asset plays to Green Bay’s most vulnerable weakness.
By contrast, Jordan Love seldom runs with the ball, at least not by design. He’s rushed for a season total of 248 yards. But Love has developed into a top ten passer. He ranks tenth in passing yards, third in touchdowns, and eleventh in passer rating. He has shown the ability to move well in and out of the pocket, read defensive coverage, and adjust his throwing angle from overhead to sidearm to make big plays. He is playing behind an offensive line that has largely escaped the injury bug that has ravaged other units on the team, a line that kept Love clean throughout the Vikings game without a sack. Love’s passing prowess plays to Chicago’s greatest weakness. The Bears’ defense is 21st in passing yards allowed and 29th in touchdown passes allowed.
So when they kick it off at Lambeau Field on Sunday, which quarterback will best be able to exploit his strength against the opposing defensive weakness? Certainly, Green Bay’s pass rush strategy will have to be different from the all out, pin yours ears back blitzes they deployed against the dubious signal callers of the Vikings. Pass rushers will have to stay in their lanes and try to force Fields to stay in the pocket. Joe Barry may even use Quay Walker to “spy” Fields, assigning him specifically to keeping the quarterback from running down field. The problem with this is, even with a spy, Fields is so good in open space he has little problem evading a single tackler. You have to get him with multiple bodies while he’s still in the backfield. If he gets out, it’s a big problem.
The Bears depend on Fields to make big plays with his legs to win. He leads the team in rushing yards and because of him Chicago ranks second in running the ball. Receiver DJ Moore is having a tremendous season but there is little else to threaten you in the passing game.
The Packers are most effective on offense when Aaron Jones is providing the unit with a solid running game. The Bears’ stout run defense will no doubt focus on stopping the run, but unlike Chicago, Green Bay can offer a wide diversity of dangerous targets down field, particularly if Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed can return for this game. They would join Romeo Doubs and the suddenly productive Bo Melton as reliable targets. Toss in tight end Tucker Kraft and Jones out of the backfield, and the Bears’ shaky pass defense will have plenty to worry about. If Love gets time in the pocket, he should be able to pick that unit apart.
Both quarterbacks should be highly motivated to play at the top of their game. Besides the obvious importance of a win to their teams, Fields wants to convince the Bears he is their quarterback of the future, considering the franchise has the number one pick in the coming draft, and the team must decide whether to claim the fifth year option on him. Love has surely already convinced the Packers he is their franchise signal caller, so the better he plays, the longer and fatter that extension will be when it comes in May. Leading his team to the playoffs in his first year as a starter? With the youngest team in the NFL? That’s going to be worth a lot of bank come negotiating time.
Because of the intensity of this rivalry, it is inevitable that the progress of Love and Fields will always be compared. The outcome of this game will go a long way toward coloring that comparison.
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
__________________________
Comments (38)
pantz_bURp
January 04, 2024 at 03:15 pm
More specifically Ken, it will come down to the QB play against the D play against said QBs.
It will come down to kicker vs kicker and special teams vs special teams. Fans vs fans...
We need to be hitting on all 11 cylinders.
Get ready to hear the Beer Barrel Polka and smile at those rosy-cheeked cheerleaders with the Hardware Hank gloves.
We got this!
And if we don't...the Bears will look into the mirror the next day and know, they STILL SUCK!
LLCHESTY
January 04, 2024 at 03:20 pm
The Bears have no rushers that use quickness to defeat blocks. If the Packers OL are ready for a physical brand of football they will win, of not it could get ugly. They are the number 2 rushing offense and the number 1 rushing defense. That usually translates to good December football. Starting fast and taking them out of their comfort zone will be important.
Also the Bears have 22 interceptions on the year while the Packers have 7. It would help if the Packers could get their hands on a Fields pass or two while Love keeps up his clean streak.
jlc1
January 04, 2024 at 03:30 pm
Too true. But what about January football ;) ?
LLCHESTY
January 04, 2024 at 03:32 pm
Same!
MainePackFan
January 04, 2024 at 03:38 pm
"If the Packers OL are ready for a physical brand of football they will win, of not it could get ugly."
That's what scares me. It's been awhile since we've seen the Packers be a physical team.
SicSemperTyrannis
January 05, 2024 at 09:46 am
Not that long. Against KC our lines flat out won their 1 on 1 matchups.
Coldworld
January 04, 2024 at 03:40 pm
We also have to stop their ground game between the tackles. Of late they’ve been able to run pretty effectively at RB, which has opened up their passing game.
LLCHESTY
January 05, 2024 at 01:08 am
The threat of Fields keeping it and taking it backside is opening things up for them. Contain is going to be important on both sides.
CheesedDeadHead
January 04, 2024 at 06:30 pm
"It would help if the Packers could get their hands on a Fields pass or two while Love keeps up his clean streak."
To me that speaks to the defensive scheme more than the players (except for Walker who needs some catching training). You need to be close to the receiver to get most interceptions. Barry's soft zone often keeps the DBs too far away from a receiver to make a play on the ball.
HawkPacker
January 04, 2024 at 03:32 pm
Ken, you did not mention Musgrave. Is he available for this game?
Renllaw
January 05, 2024 at 04:45 am
Until Musgrave stops tripping over his own feet, untouched, 3 times a game... Kraft is the better tight end. And he may be even if Musgrave can fix his footwork.
SicSemperTyrannis
January 05, 2024 at 09:49 am
Musgrave is good until the catch. He gets open where Kraft cannot. He's basically a big bodied WR. There's room for both, and both can be used to good effect on the same play.
HawkPacker
January 05, 2024 at 11:49 am
Yes, I love both guys. The silver lining with Musgrave getting hurt was it gave Kraft the opportunity to play and get accustomed to the NFL. Now we have two good TE's.
Tundraboy
January 05, 2024 at 04:45 pm
Who down votes this. Its all good both, TEs are good. Way too early to harp on aspects that need improving when they both have shown more than we have seen from any other of our TEs for years. Years! And that stiff arm, dont get me started.
Lphill
January 04, 2024 at 03:55 pm
Packers 28 th against the run , Joe Barry pay attention please.
jlc1
January 04, 2024 at 04:22 pm
By this point in a season it is reasonable to think a team will play the way they have, on average, the first 16 games. Not the Pack. Who knows which version shows up Sunday. And will MLF show us something more solid in a game plan than he has last year or the years before in win or go home games (all of which were at Lambeau). He is 2-4 in those games. But this team ..... what can you say other than Go Pack Go!
Tundraboy
January 05, 2024 at 04:51 pm
Great post. Who knows which versions will show up. We certainly are overdue for the good one this time. Go Pack!
canadapacker
January 04, 2024 at 05:23 pm
The Bears have a big decision to make - on Fields . i personally dont like running Quarterbacks. Probably Lamar may be an isolated success - and remember he lost all of last year. Fields has missed time both this year and last. That is why I like what Love does - which is the same as AR was in his heyday - escapability and making the most out of those situations is one thing - but running to run without sliding and not taking hits is the demise of many of these QB's - even Hurts this year and last has taken the lumps from those hits that eventually catch up. So lets just put a lick on Fields - but it will be the defense who wins the game - if we give up less than 21 points
HarryHodag
January 04, 2024 at 05:40 pm
Here's a novel concept: the Packers offensive line needs to dominate the Bears. That will enable Jordan Love to prosper. The Packers defensive line needs to step it up to harass Justin Fields and the linebackers need to be ready to run.
This isn't flag football.
Vachio
January 04, 2024 at 05:43 pm
People keep talking up the Bears pass defense, but l think it's more a function of the schedule and not having Joe Barry making average and below QBs look like hall of famers. They haven't played a good QB since October 29th and on that day, they got torched for almost 300 yards and 3 TDs. Since then, they have faced a murderer's row of: Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Jared Goff (x2), Joshua Dobbs, Joe Flacco, Kyler Murray, and Heinicke/Ridder.
I feel like Love is going to be able to have a similar game to what he had last week, especially with some of the key pass catchers possibly getting back onto the field.
WD
January 05, 2024 at 07:19 am
If Fields plays like he did against the Falcons last week the Packers are in trouble. Frankly, it was one of the best performance by a QB I have ever seen. I am talking about his passing and throwing on the run. Moreover his ability to make yardage out of nothing is uncanny. Do not underestimate Fields . This is gong to be a nerve racking game. Trial by combat. Sunday we find out if the Packers are contenders....or pretenders. I pray for the former.
Vachio
January 05, 2024 at 09:21 am
I share that concern. Some of the throws he made last week were sick. My hope is that Love can outpace him in a shootout, because I don't think Barry is capable of calling a defense to shut Fields down when he's playing like he played last week, so it will be up to the offense. Hopefully, I'm right about the Chicago defense being overrated. :)
SicSemperTyrannis
January 05, 2024 at 09:58 am
I'd love to see #7 put as spy on Fields. #25 is the hungriest player we've got, and unafraid to tackle anybody; I fear Fields would just run over him though. We have not seen LVN put in the interior, which was announced as a possibility. I'd like to see that combined with being a spy. Fields is hard to bring down, a good strategy might be to have all this plus the line trying to meet at the QB, double team DJ Moore, and live in their backfield.
That's not Barry ball though, so jumping out to an early lead is probably critical.
In no way can beating the Bears determine that anyone is a contender, and GB is not this year. There are probably 8 teams that we can't really compete with, although the league could make amends for getting the final call in the Lion's game wrong and then they'd be #2 seed instead of the Cowboys and maybe GB wins in the wildcard round. That would be valuable experience in a building year ...
White92
January 04, 2024 at 06:01 pm
I will respectfully disagree. This game will come down to stopping the run, and that's what scares me. Joe Barry's defense is 28th vs the run. If they can't stop Herbert, it'll be another early off-season.
SicSemperTyrannis
January 05, 2024 at 10:03 am
JB has stopped the run. The problem is that when he does, it's at the expense of pass defense. Or vice versa.
On the day they were explaining that good teams do both, JB missed class.
Ferrari-Driver
January 04, 2024 at 06:05 pm
As you say the better play by the quarterback will go a long way in determining which team comes out on top.
To this point, I haven't heard anyone mention what I believe to be a major factor as well which is the WEATHER.
We are three days away from kickoff and the forecast at this time calls for a high of 37degrees with winds at 8mph at Lambeau. At this time of year that is almost as good as it gets and if the forecast holds true, I believe it will favor the Packers who have the better passing quarterback to go along with an array of young talented receivers.
RCPackerFan
January 04, 2024 at 06:24 pm
While I agree that the QB that plays the best will most likely win this game, this game will be won in the trenches.
Which team can protect the QB and which team can get after the QB will most likely succeed.
The Packers OL has been very good down the stretch. Tom has been shutting guys down all season except for when he was playing through injury. Jenkins has returned to his normal level of play. The combination of Runyan and Rhyan have been fine at RG. Walker has been improving a lot at LT. And Myers has improved also. This unit is gelling together and at the right time. They were very good against the Vikings which blitzed a ton.
I like GB's OL with the combination of having Love behind them.
The Packers defensive front has been good overall. Going against FIelds is not an easy task as you can't have the pass rushers loose contain. What I'd like to see them do is blitz the middle a bit more, and contain the edges. Getting pressure in Fields face will be huge imo from allowing him to run around a ton. Can't blitz him a ton, but can picking and choosing the right times to do it could be key. This could be a huge game for Walker. Either as a spy or as a delayed blitzer type.
I said this before the first game this year. That I was looking forward to seeing how each team has progressed from the first game to the last game. It will be fun to see how much different each looks.
SicSemperTyrannis
January 05, 2024 at 10:18 am
I agree that our D is the main variable here. I'm not so sure that blitzing a ton would be a bad idea, but let's be honest; if that happens then we know JB wasn't calling all the plays last week either. Seeing #7 and 25 blitz? Maybe JB did that, but I think not. #7 is bad in coverage simply because he doesn't always read plays that well and that's how he gets beat. If he's allowed to be aggressive he excels because the opposing offense has to try to anticipate what he's going to do. Even if they do that AND neutralize him on that one play which is not at all a given, that uses so much resources on one player that our other defenders have a better chance to get home.
Blitz or rush, hopefully they learned from their mistakes against DeVito because Fields is exponentially better. DeVito merely stepped up in the pocket and shrugged off all the pressure we generated. From there he completed passes and ran effectively, even though JB adjusted and used a spy.
What makes this aggressive style more likely to work is you just have to double team DJ Moore and there's not much else besides Chicago's running game. It would be interesting to see Ja as part of a double team; let him break on the ball while the second guy makes sure he's tackled.
golfpacker1
January 04, 2024 at 06:38 pm
Its really the perfect time for Alexander to come back and dominate DJ Moore. We wouldn't need to double anyone else so we could assign a spy on Fields. Barry probably won't do it but Fields ability to run so well is a big advantage for the Bears, so we need to take that away from them by assigning a defender to him. WE also need to lay the wood when he doesn't slide.
Is Kmet hurt and out for this game?
LeotisHarris
January 04, 2024 at 07:51 pm
Oof, Ken, reading all that ciphering and all them suh-tiss-ticks made my head feel extra woozy. Kinda like when I'm watching the game on the tee vee and the color guy says "the Packers are 16 for 21 on third down and four in the second quarter this season," while simultaneously "Matt LaFleur is undefeated as Packers HC in 2024" crawls across the bottom of the screen, and a box in the upper left displays Vegas odds *plus* which team America thinks will win the game.
I tell you what, son, when these two teams get together you can throw all the suh-tiss-ticks and records out the window because that's the narrative Jim Nantz will lead with while Tony Romo segues into how this game *is* about the two QBs because which other players will be exciting enough to hold Americans attention for most of a Sunday afternoon? I mean, this is Big! BIG! Love vs Fields on the Frozen Tundra. A heavyweight title bout. A two-man cage match for the belt. Katie bar the door!
The Packers are undefeated at Lambeau in January when the wind is from the SSE at 4-6 mph and the barometric pressure is below 30.28.
SicSemperTyrannis
January 05, 2024 at 10:24 am
See ball get ball. Simple as.
Grug smash!
T7Steve
January 05, 2024 at 07:50 am
Did the Bears suddenly produce a quality O-line? I really haven't heard.
The O-lines are the key to which QB wins the game.
As always.
SicSemperTyrannis
January 05, 2024 at 10:29 am
Are we sure GB has suddenly produced a solid O line? Their improvement includes adjusting for C Myers to get blown off the ball; an interesting strategy, but it works. Mostly. As long as you don't try to run up the middle, which largely makes #28 ineffective. I'd love to see #31 Wilson get an honest evaluation before the draft, meaning more than a line play when he's cold. I'm not sure this week is great timing for that though?
jont
January 05, 2024 at 11:57 am
"Did the Bears suddenly produce a quality O-line? I really haven't heard."
This.
If the Bears' game play is having the QB run for his life and make something good happen more often than not, they're in trouble. And this usually is their game plan.
I think we have reason to be confident this week.
lou
January 05, 2024 at 08:52 am
Yes QB play are many times keys to wins and the Bears have not had a stellar QB since Sid Luckman in 1949. But, the reason the longest rivalry in pro sports has been so close since the first time they played is somehow the Bears no matter what their season ending records are is that their defenses create considerably more turnovers and score more TD's on defense than the norm almost every year. In addition their special teams are always solid or excellent (Devin Hester). The Packers offense needs to hold onto the ball and their below average to date special teams units need to over achieve to get the big win.
SicSemperTyrannis
January 05, 2024 at 10:41 am
Our ST needs to take the LH approach: kick it out of the end zone. Force the touchback. Take the fair catch. Get the bottom of the roster off the field.
I'd love to see the stat for this season, every return attempt including penalties, how much did we lose vs taking the fair catch and touchback? I'm pretty it cost us yards rather than gained anything.
It kills #25 Nixon every time he does that. The man wants to COMPETE! He's the hungriest player on the team, but doesn't always make good decisions. He's made a few long returns, but either he lacks vision on the field this season, opponents have schemed against him successfully, or some combination.
This one game, just play it safe on ST. Avoid injuries, turnovers and penalties. If they make it to the playoffs, then maybe go with your hair on fire because why not?
TxFred
January 05, 2024 at 11:30 am
If Jones plays he game, it will just about be over. Bears can't try to stop him and cover our receivers.
MLF game plan should turn the bears defense inside out. A balanced attack run & pass, the bears are done. GPG!!!
Tundraboy
January 05, 2024 at 04:54 pm
We're Home. Time to act that way. Time to dominate, starting in the trenches. GPG