National Football League teams spend hundreds of millions of dollars on talent, coaching staffs, armies of scouts, and technology.  The Green Bay Packers will employ no fewer than thirty coaches this year.  Each one will spend countless hours this season breaking down video and formulating strategy.  They will pore over analytics, trying to identify trends and percentages.  They do this because any little edge they can find might make the difference between winning and losing.  Winning games is the way they keep their jobs.  The way they provide for their families. 

     And yet, despite all the hard work and finances invested, the fate of every team will almost certainly boil down to something over which they have little, if any, control.  Injuries.  How many players will get hurt, which players get hurt, how badly they get hurt, how many games will they miss.  The answers to these questions will make the difference between a successful season and a disappointing one.   

    Which is maddening, especially since there is no definitive evidence that any particular practice or game strategy works better to avoid injuries, short of just holding players out.  Even that is problematic.  If you hold players out, they can’t improve.  So you might as well play your guys, and let destiny play its hand.   

    The Saints, 49ers, Panthers, Patriots and Dolphins all dealt with the most massive injury issues in 2024.  It’s no coincidence that all of them finished with losing records, falling short of expectations.  According to the Sports Injury Control website, the healthiest teams in 2024 were the Ravens, Falcons, Vikings, Eagles and Broncos.  All except the Falcons made the playoffs, the Vikings and Broncos far surpassed expectations, and the Eagles won the Super Bowl. 

     Last January the Packers lined up in a playoff game against the Eagles.  They had to start the game without receiver Christian Watson and cornerback Jaire Alexander.  Green Bay lost its best offensive lineman, Elgton Jenkins, on his first snap of the game.  The loss was devastating.  Travis Glover and Kadeem Telfort were disasters as replacements.  Before the first quarter ended, defensive lineman Devonte Wyatt left the game with a leg injury.  In the third quarter receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed both had to take a seat, Doubs with a concussion, and Reed with a shoulder problem.  Remember, Christian Watson was already out, meaning the team had to go down the home stretch without its top three pass catchers. 

     Josh Jacobs had to carry the offense, and was on his way to a big day, having run for 81 yards and scoring the team’s only touchdown.  But midway through the final period, Jacobs left the game with a leg injury.  Before the contest came to a merciful end, center Josh Myers and linebacker Quay Walker had also limped off the field. 

     Would the outcome of the game have been different if all of those key players had remained healthy throughout?    We can debate that.  It would have been fun to find out.  But one thing is for sure.  Green Bay had no chance without them.  Injuries basically decided the team’s fate. 

     It should be pointed out that injuries worked in Green Bay’s favor a few times as well.  During the season they defeated a very good Houston Texans team that was missing five starters on defense, and their best receiver Nico Collins.  They also had the fortune of playing, and beating, the Los Angeles Rams, who were without three O-line starters, plus receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. 

     Coaches and players will always play down injuries.  “Next man up!”, they will proclaim.  That’s understandable.  They can’t let themselves fall into the psychological trap of using injuries as an excuse.  They must think positive.  But let’s get real.  The next man up is not as good as the player in front of him, otherwise he wouldn’t be the next man up.   

     Injuries don’t always take you down.  It is possible to overcome them.  The Packers won two games last season without Jordan Love.  Granted, the victories came against the Titans and the Colts, two of the worst teams in the league, but Green Bay still deserves credit for redesigning the offense in a week’s time to empower back-up signal caller Malik Willis.   Overcoming that kind of adversity, the loss of your starting quarterback, is rare. 

      I bring this up because injuries have been a major topic of conversation in training camp this week.  We probably give them too much emphasis because we are starved for information about our team during this time of the year.  Often coaches choose to hold players out of training camp workouts out of an abundance of caution, to ensure their readiness for the regular season.  Many would play if the games counted.  Yet it’s hard not to cringe at the laundry list of key players who are missing valuable training camp time, a list that includes Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Xavier McKinney, Nate Hobbs, Romeo Doubs and of course, Christian Watson.  To this point, the injury gods have been reasonably benevolent.  Of these critical starters, only Watson is confirmed not available to start week one, as expected.  The Packers will need all the others to heal up quickly because the season starts with a bang as the Detroit Lions come to town. 

     We ruminate over which players are the best, which will break out, which will disappoint, the difficulty of the schedule, the competence of the coaches.  We can make bold predictions and informed speculation.  But you can’t predict injuries.  To have a great season, you must be very good.  And when it comes to injuries, you must be very lucky.