The Lass Word: Lawrence Deal Sets the Market for Love
The price has gone up.
By KenLass
When Joe Burrow signed a contract extension with the Cincinnati Bengals for an annual average of $55 million per year, it reset the market for “elite” quarterbacks. But when Trevor Lawrence recently inked a new deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars, which also averaged $55 million per season, it reset the market for second tier signal callers as well.
The Green Bay Packers are in the process of negotiating an extension with Jordan Love. No doubt Love and his agent were joyful about the Lawrence deal, while there likely was consternation at 1265 Lombardi Avenue. Any hope the Packers had of bringing Love’s new deal in around the $50 million per year mark went up in smoke. In negotiations, the team at first could always point to Burrow having led his team to a Super Bowl, using that as at least a partial bench mark for a top of the league salary average.
But no more. Now Love and his agent can legitimately claim the Lawrence deal as the base line. Is that fair? How exactly do Love and Lawrence compare in terms of accomplishment?
What makes such a comparison tricky is it’s a bit like apples to oranges. Lawrence was a number one overall pick, and had been a three year starter leading up to his new contract. Love sat behind Aaron Rodgers for three years, and only last season did he have a chance to prove himself as a franchise signal caller. The only parallel season they had was 2023. In addition, Jordan Love’s stats for the final ten games, including playoffs, are vastly different from the first nine. So I’ll include both for perspective.
Lawrence missed one game during the last regular season while Love played in all seventeen, so total stats can’t be compared straight up. Let’s use per game averages. Lawrence finished ninth in passing yards per game at 251. Love was right behind at tenth averaging 244. However, in the last ten games Love averaged 261. Lawrence was fourteenth in completion percentage at 65.6, while Love was twentieth at 64.2. In the last ten games Love was at 69.8, which would have ranked second in the league.
Lawrence threw an average of 1.3 touchdowns per game, Love was at 1.9, and 2.3 in the final ten contests. Lawrence was 21st in passer rating at 88.5. Love was 11th at 96.1, and 112.1 in the last ten, which would have ranked him second in the NFL.
Lawrence had 14 interceptions in sixteen games. Love had 11 in seventeen games, and just three in the final ten games. Lawrence was sacked 35 times, Love 30, which could be an indication Love played behind a slightly better offensive line.
Lawrence had two game-winning drives in the fourth quarter. Love had three. Lawrence had 339 rushing yards, Love had 247. In three seasons, Lawrence has led the Jaguars to the playoffs just once (2022) and his playoff record is 1-1. In one season as a starter, Love has led Green Bay to the playoffs once and has an identical post season record of 1-1.
As you can see, in nearly every statistical comparison, where a comparison is at least somewhat reasonable, Jordan Love ranks better, or at least reasonably equal to Trevor Lawrence. This proves even more true if you use only Love’s final ten game tear. No doubt, if you are Love’s agent, this makes for a compelling argument that the former Utah State star should get a new deal at, or slightly above the $55 million annual average the Jags are paying to Lawrence. The Packers can claim Love doesn’t have the track record length to be at the top of the salary chart, but that won’t help them much. In today’s NFL, you pay the going rate or you start over.
Of course, Love is currently still under contract for the 2024 season. The Packers could wait and let their signal caller play out the season to determine if he is the real deal. But if he does perform well, and there’s no reason to think he won’t, Love will only get more expensive, plus the contract extension issue will be a stench in the locker room all season long. Just look at the drama in Dallas and Miami with the lingering extension questions surrounding Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa.
The Packers don’t need that kind of distraction. Love should be able to start training camp with a fat new deal in his back pocket. And along the way, he should take Trevor Lawrence out for a steak dinner.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (30)
TKWorldWide
July 01, 2024 at 06:20 am
There are 2 kinds of NFL teams: those that are shelling out big $ for their QB1, and those that are LOOKING for a QB1 to shell out to.
The “debate” (among fans, seemingly not among GB mgt) is whether or not Love has proven himself enough to earn the big $.
What I think is odd is that every new QB contract sets the market, regardless of whether or not that QB is BETTER than the previous guy that just got paid.
I believe JL and GB are in great shape. GPG!
stockholder
July 01, 2024 at 06:24 am
Miami Dolphins won't pay Tua Tagovailoa 'Jared Goff money'
TKWorldWide
July 01, 2024 at 08:06 am
Lay off the mushrooms.
You Know Which
kind, RITE?
(Shiitake)
😉
BTW: both Eeyore AND Chicken Little called: they want their takes back.
ricky
July 01, 2024 at 08:36 am
And if they don't? They get to start over with a rookie QB who may or may not be viable. And as Tua himself said, "The market is the market." Whether we like it or not is irrelevant. Besides, in two years, when the Lawrence contract kicks in, that amount of money could look reasonable, if not a relative bargain.
mnbadger
July 01, 2024 at 12:08 pm
it won't look so reasonable if (as reported) the nfl continues its losing ways with the anti-trust issues.
If broadcast rights get shared amongst providers but total values dip by as much as $2B/annually as reported, some of those very heavy contracts will go from 22% of cap to nearly 30%
No single player in this game is worth that and it will kill franchises for a few years.
Again, only a potential, but damn I hope we don't go back to Cap Hell.
We just read and celebrated a well written article about great team chemistry no less.
GPG!
GregC
July 01, 2024 at 06:58 am
"Lawrence missed one game during the last regular season while Love played in all seventeen, so total stats can’t be compared straight up. Let’s use per game averages."
Thank you so much for this. Most writers would not have bothered to make the distinction. This entire article is a rare example of using statistics in the best way possible and admitting their limitations.
The conclusion is inescapable. Love has earned a deal that is at least equivalent to Lawrence's, and probably a little above it. Considering that Lawrence's deal was done first, Love's deal almost HAS to be higher than Lawrence's. I doubt that the Packer front office was very much surprised by Lawrence's deal. I hope both parties can reach an agreement before training camp.
HarryHodag
July 01, 2024 at 07:32 am
Love's new contract has a bit of a disparity to consider. He had a really outstanding year in 2023, especially in the final games. He played without major injury. He was deadly accurate in the passing game with a beat up tight end corps and young receivers. Good guy and a good leader.
But he's only started one year. Lawrence has started more years. True, Love has been around a few years behind His Darkness.
But in the end you have to pay him. Do you chew over money, make him discontented and he walks when the contract is done? It's certain another team(like the Raiders) will pay him. Where would the Packers be then?
It's possible that the Packers will make Love a contract that starts with a 6, as Mike Tannenbaum, former GM, suggested recently on NFL Live. He suggested it could be structured so the Packers could opt out after two or three years. Oddly enough the recent court ruling regarding Sunday Ticket might also be in the back of the the team's head.
But when all the messing is done, you pay him. I think he will deliver.
jont
July 01, 2024 at 10:51 am
I'm with you, Harry. GB is going to pay Love, and I believe they should.
There is one little point where I'll dissent, though. You describe Love as "deadly accurate" when he was actually 6th from the bottom in the NFL last season according to https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/
highest rate of incompletions due to inaccurate passes:
43.9% - Deshaun Watson
40.6% - Tyrod Taylor
38.8% - Trevor Siemian
37.7% - Bryce Young
36.7% - Lamar Jackson
36.2% - Jordan Love
36.1% - Trevor Lawrence
35.6% - C.J. Stroud
35.4% - Aidan O'Connell
35.0% - Kenny Pickett
34.9% - Easton Stick
34.9% - Matthew Stafford
34.8% - Joshua Dobbs
34.6% - Daniel Jones
34.3% - Tua Tagovailoa
33.1% - Mac Jones
33.0% - Sam Howell
32.9% - Bailey Zappe
32.2% - Jimmy Garoppolo
32.1% - Ryan Tannehill
30.9% - Joe Flacco
30.8% - Gardner Minshew
30.8% - Justin Fields
30.1% - Derek Carr
29.5% - Desmond Ridder
29.2% - Baker Mayfield
29.0% - Jalen Hurts
28.9% - Joe Burrow
28.7% - Brock Purdy
28.6% - Zach Wilson
28.3% - Kyler Murray
27.8% - Josh Allen
27.4% - Will Levis
27.2% - Dak Prescott
26.4% - Justin Herbert
26.3% - Jared Goff
25.3% - Russell Wilson
24.5% - Patrick Mahomes
23.2% - Kirk Cousins
22.2% - Jake Browning
21.6% - Geno Smith
*2023 regular season, min 175 attempts
I take this as another reason the Packers 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 sign him. With Tom Clements working with him and a little more experience, he'll just get better.
LambeauPlain
July 01, 2024 at 12:28 pm
But what did the final 10 games display?
Lies, damed lies, statistics.
ricky
July 01, 2024 at 08:41 am
This is the second mistake the Packers have made with Love. The first was not trading Rodgers to Denver for a few high draft picks, and a player or two. Now, they have waited too long to re-sign him. And they'll pay a steep fine to get him under contract. If he's not the highest paid QB in the league, his agent will be asking for at least the Lawrence contract. But how the money payouts are structured, and how much is guaranteed will be crucial. Wait until the initial blather dies down, then go to "Over the Cap" to find out what the contract really pays, and when.
GregC
July 01, 2024 at 09:54 am
I wanted them to trade Rodgers a year or two earlier than they did. It was not an easy call to make though. He was playing at a very high level, and there was a lot of uncertainty about whether Love was going to be good. I think if Love had played in 2022, he would've been under a lot of pressure and would have struggled more than he did in the first half of 2023.
As for the Packers waiting too long to get a contract done, we can't say that's happened because we don't know what they've offered. It might just be a case of Love's agent being very shrewd, knowing that if he played it slow, the QB market would work in his client's favor.
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 01, 2024 at 04:04 pm
How do you know GB waited too long? The earliest they could have extended him was in May, and this is the normal negotiating period for a big deal like this. We can't know which side is taking its time in finalizing this contract.
Or did you want them to sign him for longer than one year prior to his starting gig in 2023? Last year was a tryout and he played the odds and won big time. But GB won, too. They got a starting QB out of the deal.
13TimeChamps
July 01, 2024 at 08:59 am
Being more of a "right" brain person vs "left", I'm probably the last person on here to discuss salary cap issues, dead money, post June 1st signing, etc. It's just never interested me very much.
That being said, my more intuitive right brain is telling me the overall size of the contract has probably already been agreed upon. Which leads me to believe, at this point, they're probably just haggling over the structure of the contract....signing bonus, guaranteed money, etc. Which, of course, gives my left brain a major headache.
But, in the end, my right brain is assuring me this will be done by the start of training camp.
bsteinwagner30
July 01, 2024 at 09:01 am
Your assumption that the Lawrence contract is going to effect the Love deal in mostly inaccurate. The true numbers per Over The Cap are listed. He are the cap numbers by year
2024 $15,700,000
2025 $ 17,000,000
2026 $ 24,000,000
2027 $ 35,000,000
2028 $ 47,000,000
2029 $ 78,000,000
2030 $ 74,000,000
The last two years have base salary's of 50,000,000 and $53,000,000. The signing bonus was $37,500,000 over 5 years, ending in 2028. The guaranteed money was $34,500,000 over 4 years. Last guarantee was in 2027.
This is not as big of contract as the overall numbers lead you to believe.
mnbadger
July 01, 2024 at 12:10 pm
Thank you so much for the details.
I'm skeptical of JL's elite status at this point in his career.
A contract structured like the one above would temper my fears greatly.
GPG!
vin0770
July 01, 2024 at 03:29 pm
Thanks
People only like talking points not facts. Anyone think he’s really getting the money in the last two years of that contract?
Swisch
July 01, 2024 at 11:08 am
The key for the Packers is to do things their own way and not be too affected by what other teams do.
What other teams do is a consideration that should be taken into account, but let's not be too quick to follow the crowd.
***
I'm really not sure what to do about Jordan Love.
I'm enthusiastic about Love as our QB of the future, but he is still largely unproven.
Didn't Lawrence and the Panthers have a significant drop off last season? Also, look at what happened with Hurts and the Eagles in their late-season collapse. Burrow is oft injured for the Bengals. Do the Bills have much room to sign other top players with the contract for Allen?
These QBs may bounce back big time, but maybe not to the point of justifying huge contracts.
***
So much of it is what the Packers see in Love day-to-day as a player and a person.
I hope they see someone like Patrick Mahomes who stands out even among the elites at QB as a guy who is exceptional at leading teams to championships.
If not, I would be reluctant to sign Love for $55 million per year.
I'd keep the salary cap balanced to pay key players throughout the roster.
I'd give Clifford and Pratt an opportunity to shine, or seek another replacement for Love.
As a longtime supporter of Love, I definitely want him as our QB of the future -- but not at all costs.
mnbadger
July 01, 2024 at 12:13 pm
Great summary of my feelings. It seems we are in the minority.
Hopefully Ball/Gutey make a strong decision that we can be happy with 3 or 4 years from now.
GPG!
Swisch
July 01, 2024 at 01:01 pm
Hey, mnbadger, it seems we as fans are prone to get too low on a player and then too high on him, then vice versa.
Just look at the difference as to how Jordan Love is viewed now versus how he was viewed as recently as this past November -- only about 10 games ago.
We do really have to hope that our front office and coaches are truly discerning as to whether Love is more like Mahomes, or more like a lot of other highly talented quarterbacks who may make the pro bowl but are not especially likely to take the Packers to a title.
It's a tough call, especially in the context of juggling a salary cap for the entire team.
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 01, 2024 at 04:40 pm
There is no "doing it your own way" in negotiating deals in the NFL. Agents work for multiple players and are familiar with multiple teams, and they drive the negotiating based on the market value of the player relative to others at that position. Love had a great second half of the season and has every reason to want to get paid and get paid well. GB gambled by extending him just for 2023 and seeing how he'd play and now they have to pay or start over with looking for a starting QB.
Swisch
July 01, 2024 at 07:19 pm
If agents are getting obnoxious, it's about time to stop them from pushing around both players and GMs.
The agent works for the player, not the other way around. If the agent doesn't really have the unique personal interests of the player at heart, then he should be replaced.
The player works for the team. While I don't think management should be heavy-handed with any of its players, from the superstars to the subs, I also don't think management should let themselves get pushed around by players or agents.
As much as I really like Love -- and want him to be the leader of the Pack for a decade to come -- at some point in the negotiation for salary I'm good with starting over for a new starting QB.
My hunch is that at least one of Clifford/Pratt may be able to get the job done quite nicely, as has Purdy with the 49ers as they moved on from Lance and Garropolo (both of whom were once thought to be of elite talent).
Nothing is for certain, anyway. We don't know the future for any of our current QBs as far as potential and attitude and health.
We have to hope Gute and LaFleur make the right call.
PhantomII
July 01, 2024 at 11:10 am
JL is a top 10 QB. With GB OL, RB's and ton of WR talent and TE's...He is a top 3 talent. It's what's around you that makes or breaks you...JL is as well positioned to succeed as any QB1 in the NFL. Add in our prospective defensive changes and we are even more of a Championship contender. JL showed anyone with eyeballs he's able to do his job at an extremely high level. I hope JL leaves some coin on the table to pay some other great players...so far I have been impressed with his God given skills and abilities and his mental toughness to rise above some pretty serious gut punches in his life.....Thank you Lord. JL, it's your time to shine....Praise God...
mnbadger
July 01, 2024 at 12:14 pm
on this site, I'll thank god as soon as I see him/her? beat a LT around the edge and blow up the backfield!
GPG!
PackerBackerAZ
July 01, 2024 at 04:03 pm
Love showed me that he will make critically poor decisions in the final stages of winnable playoff games. Then again, maybe God made him throw that last interception. Maybe God was humbling Love. Love might want to wash the feet of the other 53 men on the roster and play for God and not man's iniquitous money. After all, God will take care of him on a veteran minimum contract. Do any of the NFL hypocrites spouting off about their imaginary omnipotent deity play for her, him or it and not money? From where I sit nobody plays for God. Love has a chance to show the heathen that a talented quarterback will play for God by taking a veteran minimum contract and shouting hallelujah to the heavens.
PhantomII
July 01, 2024 at 11:27 pm
Arizona State Flag (Setting Sun)
Japan Navy Flag (Rising Sun)
I-OWA-San Pedro "Saint Peter"BB-61
A-(RIZON)A "PEARL" BB-39
M-ISSOURI "PEARL" BB-63
IAM
LambeauPlain
July 01, 2024 at 12:49 pm
The right price is where the buyer and seller agree. Both already agree it is going to be crazy money.
I do believe Love will be more amenable to discuss a more team friendly deal than his predecessor did...who seemed to believe the right price was what he demanded.
Love is already a millionaire on a very young team loading up on talented players who want to follow him, respect him. I can see a huge signing bonus, lower cap hits early with lucrative performance incentives, and a loooong deal.
For the most part, I don't get too concerned about the crazy money paid out to Packers players. I am more concerned about Salary Cap destruction and mortgaged futures the Packers (with few exceptions), have mostly avoided.
The new team President also has a stellar resume of experience in financial "Policy" and expect he is deeply involved in the Love Contract since he will have to manage it after 2025.
PatrickGB
July 01, 2024 at 03:17 pm
It’s gonna be a high cap hit. Yet what choice does the team have? Many have suggested that it could be a bargain down the road.
dark41
July 01, 2024 at 04:11 pm
I'm in favor of paying Love, but only if it is a front loaded contract with the Packers being able to walk away after 3 years. The last thing we want is another David Bakhtiari situation where they're paying cap breaking salaries and guaranteed money while he is unable to play, or if doesn't play at a high level.
I don't buy into the "stench" in the locker room. Players know that this is a business.
Someone who knows the rules better than me for contract extensions is welcome to point out if this scenario is possible: Ideally, I'd rather sit Love down and explain that a deal will be done by (for example) week 5. Waiting until a few games into the 2024 season to evaluate him may cost the Packers more, or it may cost less - depending upon his performance.
We can make excuses for why, but we can't ignore how he started in 2023 - after the Bears game his performance was mediocre at best for many weeks. We also need to see if our defense is improved, if our O-line performs well with new pieces, how successful is our run game - all of which have a big impact upon what will be required from Love.
Bottom line for me is that there are too many unresolved variables to sign Love to a huge contract now. If possible, play a few games in 2024 and the Packers and Love will have a better understanding of what his contract should be.
TXCHEESE
July 02, 2024 at 09:21 am
Regarding the start of the '23 season, the entire offense struggled. With the entire receiving group having only 1st and 2nd year players, and the OL still trying to figure things out, it just took some time for them the settle in. The latter half of the year, the offense played pretty consistently.
Love showed he can lead and showed a lot of growth. There's no reason not to buy now, when the price is only going to go up. It's just the nature of the business. QB's are gonna get paid.
NFLfan
July 02, 2024 at 08:53 am
I think Love needs to be paid. Otherwise, this becomes a distraction and the media will have a feast.
Personally, I don't enjoy 1-2 players receiving bloated contracts as it shorts other important players but this is currently the norm.