The Lass Word: Love Extension Could Become a Bargain

Like many Green Bay Packer fans, I find myself having a lot of heartburn over the prospect of the team diving into a major financial commitment to their new starting quarterback.  The memory of how the most recent Aaron Rodgers deal hamstrung the franchise is still fresh.  As pleasantly surprising as the 2023 season turned out to be, I can’t help wondering how much better it might have turned out if the team wouldn’t have had to carry Rodgers’ $40 million dead money cap hit through the year. 

Finally free of the burden of that 2022 extension, the Packers have had the freedom this offseason to significantly improve the roster with the free agent signings of Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs, and still retain the cap space to do more.   

But general manager Brian Gutekunst says the team is now convinced that Jordan Love is the franchise quarterback of the future they were hoping for, and negotiations have begun to extend his deal.   Every credible bit of speculation I have seen from sources that can be trusted indicates Love will be offered a contract worth an average annual salary of about $50 million per year. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I’m really excited about our quarterback.  The way he played the final ten games of the 2023 season gives realistic hope the Packers can be a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the immediate future.  But wow.  That’s Aaron Rodgers-type money for a player who has started just twenty games.  You kind of hate to see the franchise undertake that kind of cap load this early into Love’s career. 

However, after taking a step back and surveying the NFL landscape these days, I’m starting to feel better about it for a few reasons.  For many years, that $50 million figure functioned as a sort of ultimate threshold, a mind-boggling landmark reserved for a legendary, transcendent face of the game.  Rodgers, a first ballot Hall of Famer, four-time MVP, seemed an appropriate recipient to break the barrier. 

Time marches on.  Perceptions change.  Today four other quarterbacks have exceeded the $50 million per year average.  None of them have achieved what I would term “legendary” or “transcendent” careers.  Joe Burrow leads all at $55 million.  Justin Herbert is next at $52.5.  Lamar Jackson averages $52, and Jalen Hurts stands at $51 million.  Not a single one of these players has won a Super Bowl.  Only one of them (Jackson) has been an MVP.  Clearly, it’s time to adjust our thinking as to what the cost of doing business with franchise quarterbacks should be.  $50 million per year is no longer some kind of threshold. 

In addition, the league salary cap had a record-breaking increase this year of more than $30 million.  There is every indication it will continue to increase, as the juggernaut that is the NFL continues its unprecedented popularity.  So a $50 million per year contract, while still a truckload of money, is not quite the wound to a team’s overall cap picture that it was in 2022.  The deal can also be structured in a myriad of ways to push larger cap hits to future years, when the cap limit has grown even larger. 

The Packers cannot officially extend Love until after May 3rd, the one-year anniversary of his last contract adjustment.  If indeed the new money does come in around $50 million per year, it would currently place him fifth among signal callers.  But he won’t stay there.  I saw a report the other day that, if Cowboys’ quarterback Dak Prescott, who is in the final year of his contract, has a big year, he could demand as much as $65 million on an extension.  Brock Purdy is in a similar situation.  He has already led the 49ers to a Super Bowl.  If he performs well again this season, the Niners will not let him get to his final contract year without an extension, and that will surely be among the top salaries in the league. 

How about CJ Stroud?  He was a revelation in his rookie season.   If he continues to shine, the Texans can’t afford to let him play out his entire rookie deal, and will have to pay him top dollar to extend.  I find it hard to believe the Chiefs won’t adjust the salary of Patrick Mahomes, who is in the middle of a ten year deal that averages a mere $45 million.  Surely he deserves to be the highest paid player. 

The point is, if Jordan Love is as good as he seems to be, getting him signed to a four- or five-year deal at around $50 million per year may become a bargain. 

All of this should ease your concern over the idea that the Packers are going to open up the bank vault for their second year starter. Now let’s just hope the thing gets done quickly in May, and doesn’t linger on into training camp as an issue. 

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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Comments (112)

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NickPerry's picture

April 01, 2024 at 06:39 am

"The way he played the final ten games of the 2023 season gives realistic hope the Packers can be a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the immediate future. But wow. That’s Aaron Rodgers-type money for a player who has started just twenty games."

THIS is where I just really struggle with this. Love has started just 20 games, was good in 10 of them, and now they find themselves in a situation of $50 million in May or MORE if they wait even 10 games. Call me old fashioned, call be a big ole dud. But Loves pending contract scares the shit out of me. I get it, Jordan Love was freaking awesome last season, and he did it with the youngest skill position group or WRs and TEs in the SB era. BUT it was for 10 games...TEN!

The BIGGEST saving grace of this is the fact ALL of his WRs and TEs will be on rookie deals for at least two more years (Watson & Doubs) and everybody else for 3 years. The Packers CAN afford to pay Love $50 or $52 million a year and it will look like a DEAL in 2 years... Hopefully!!

Even though Love still scares me IMO the Packers almost have to give him the bag of cash. Lets just see we see the Jordan Love from around November and December last year and NOT the Love we saw at the start of the season.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:03 am

While it is scary to extend Love after just one season, remember in 2008 Rodgers got a big extension after just 8 games. Overall the Packers will be out of salary cap purgatory next year ($90M+ in dead cap over the last 2 years hurts) which makes me wonder if the team is going to front load the deal.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:01 am

I was explaining the Jackson Chourio contract to some friends recently. I compared it to the stock market; risks and rewards based on future events that no one knows for sure nor has complete control over.
Similar deal with Love: signing a big extension could be a bargain, could be a mistake. Depends on how he is viewed, and it seems to me that the management is pretty confident they know what’s likely to happen.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:02 pm

I like Gutey's answer. We've had him in the building for 4 years, so we know who he is. That is vastly different from extending a guy after a rookie season. Love's improvement was steady the last part of the season; he did't show a flash and then regress greatly. HIs performance in the playoffs, shows he deserves this kind of deal.

Would all the scaredy cats out there feel better if GB was like many franchises still looking for their QB? You can keep that position very cheap on the salary cap as long as you keep churning it, looking for cheap vets or rookies again. I'm not interested in that.

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Duneslick's picture

April 01, 2024 at 05:30 pm

I saw him have some good games but overall at this point in his career he has accuracy issues especially on long passes and a slow delivery. Better see that he cleans up before giving him 250 million dollars for 5 years. We could be in an AR, BAK scenario very quickly

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 01, 2024 at 06:57 am

If the "benchmark" for Love is around $50 M/season, and he touches the ball a 1,000 plays/17 game season, he will make $50,000 per touch. That includes passes thrown, runs and handoffs.

Not too bad for a 3 year backup called a draft reach, that many predicted would not be an effective starter, and certainly not the next potential elite QB in Green Bay.

I have been a fan of Jordan and happy to see him succeed. In the NFL, if you do succeed you can earn "crazy money".

The challenge for these young men is not to let the crazy money make them, well "crazy" worshiping it.

So far, Jordan seems to be guided by his solid character...has well ordered personal priorities. This should serve him well.

Very soon, money should not be a "need" in his life or for his family. Hope it stays that way.

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T7Steve's picture

April 01, 2024 at 06:58 am

Have to pay, so the sooner the better.

It will tell me more about where we stand in the long run, if he takes a team friendly deal or not. If he does, it will show his confidence in himself and help keep the players around him. He can still easily make the 50 + yearly with non-cap burdening incentives if he believes in the team and his teammates. He doesn't have to do that, but I think he will for the most part because I think he's very unselfish.

You also could look at it and say he made NFL money for 3 years just to learn and sit and owes it all to a team that thinks ahead.

The next one will be the scary one with all the guaranties.

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Duhawk_47's picture

April 01, 2024 at 12:37 pm

His representation is David Mulugheta & Athletes First. So, while of course it would be incredibly helpful, it seems quite unlikely that this is a true "Team Friendly" deal.

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T7Steve's picture

April 01, 2024 at 12:40 pm

Yes. I know I'm wishful thinking. Can extend that by saying I was wishfully thinking Love would be wishfully thinking.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:06 pm

I'm sure Jordan would have liked to start as a rookie, not sit. Any new QB wants to see the field. The guy has 3 years sitting watching and then stuns most people with a stellar season (he threw for more TDs than anyone not named Dak), and you want him to take a "team-friendly" deal? He's been working his entire life to get here. He should get every penny he can. He's earned it. It's not his fault the NFL is set up to make roster-building a challenge for teams with QBs on top deals.

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stockholder's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:02 am

Gute doesn't know how to save money.
And he Sure doesn't know how to honor contracts.
So if you were Looking as Love as an investment. Don't!
The Word Lass used is IF. It wasn't used with Rodgers.
And the pay scale for a MVP, justified the spending.
"IF" - Means We're about to pay a gamble.
On a guy that everyone got wrong when drafted?

IMO- were fighting the odds that this will turn
into good deal. And it shouldn't be made.
I'd trade him. Especially since the Packers want
to draft QBs again.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:08 am

"Gute doesn't know how to save money."
The newest CBA required teams to use an average of 90% of their cap over a 5 year period. Therefore you cannot "save money."

"And he Sure doesn't know how to honor contracts."
That is a two way street. Plenty of players hold out or demand a trade if they feel they are underpaid. Doing that shows they aren't honoring their contract either.

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dobber's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:24 am

There is so much wrong with this post.

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Guam's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:00 am

And you expected something else? Stock comes up with some good information during draft season, but otherwise I don't read his posts.

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dobber's picture

April 01, 2024 at 09:33 am

Sometimes it's curiosity about his most recent "wordsmithing".

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Guam's picture

April 01, 2024 at 10:38 am

You have a morbid sense of curiosity Dobber.........:)

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 09:46 am

you could easily get some of those posts on ChatGPT with a few queries and by asking for the responses to be generated in non-sequitur.

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stockholder's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:34 pm

There isn't Anything wrong with it.
The point was -
It's an option out of a commitment.
If the demands and money don't
fit the circumstances. Get OUT!
They're was talk of possibly trading Love.
(Before Rodgers wanted out)
If Gute wants to Save Face ,Money, etc.
Now might be the time to do it.
A rookie can throw the ball too.
What makes LOVE worth 50 mil?

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PackerBackerAZ's picture

April 01, 2024 at 03:29 pm

Him playing at the same or better level than he did the second half of the 2023 season. Evaluate him for the first half of 2024 and if the first half of 2023 Love doesn't show up.......Pay the Man

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stockholder's picture

April 01, 2024 at 05:03 pm

You went back to the word IF.
If should not get you 50 mil.
If is my problem.
FRANCHISE HIM, UNTIL THE IF IS GONE!

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Oppy's picture

April 02, 2024 at 03:15 am

I'd pay Love 50 Million just because he continues to make every post you've shared over the last three years look uninformed and idiotic.

Jordan Love is just a sterling example that you don't know jack.. and you can't stand it. You'd rather dig your heels in and continue to look like a fool rather than just admit that Gutekunst made a great selection when he grabbed Jordan Love.

It's almost like Gutekunst is a seasoned, experienced NFL personnel executive, and you're just some hack hobbyist who reads draft guides and regurgitates the opinions of others you think are experts.

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Untylu1968's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:40 am

You're a piece of work!! That asshole Gute broke your heart, and you just can't get over it. He made the correct call with #8, and he'll make the correct call with #10. GO PACK GO!

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DoubleJ's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:45 am

He made the correct call with #12 as well.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:21 pm

And notice, even the Jets reduced 12 to 8. “Saving money” indeed! 😉

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Vachio's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:42 am

The honoring contracts line has to be an April's Fool joke. It has to be. If it's not, then name a single NFL GM who honors all player contracts in their entirety. Hell, show me one who honors even half of them in their entirety. Even 25%. Name one. You can't single Gute out for something that is rampant in the league. Well, you can...you just sound really, really ignorant when doing so.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:45 am

Players don't honor their contracts either.

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Coldworld's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:42 am

A non guaranteed contract is what it says it is, not guaranteed to run its full term. Anything not guaranteed is essentially agreement by the player to a team option over the stated term. To claim otherwise is to not understand the basics of contract law let alone the workings of the entire NFL.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:57 am

There are plenty of players who sign a contract and within 2 years, while still having guarantees, want their contract redrawn because they have "out played" their contract. They hold out, demand a trade, etc... just so they can get more money. Again they are not honoring their contract either.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 09:30 am

Wants got nothing to do with it at that point. Your only options are to hold out and not get paid, or request that the team meet you half way. Seldom do players try to get out of a signed contract. What people appear to be arguing over is non-guaranteed years, which are essentially an agreement over option terms in the future. Non-guaranteed years require a team to agree again to the terms. It's not rocket science, it's contract law.

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dobber's picture

April 01, 2024 at 09:23 am

Yup. Contract management is a huge part of 2020s NFL roster management. Any team that wants to live by 1970s or even 2000s contract management is operating with one hand tied behind its back.

Most players who get cut go out and get a new contract, with a new bolus of guaranteed/bonus money put directly in their pockets.

"The Word Lass used is IF. It wasn't used with Rodgers."

Rodgers' contract went with him to NY.

"I'd trade him. Especially since the Packers want
to draft QBs again."

Again...I wonder if he even follows the news stream based on how he's lifted that comment completely out of context.

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Coldworld's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:09 am

“The Word Lass used is IF. It wasn't used with Rodgers.”

It most certainly was, as you ought to remember more clearly than almost anyone.

More generally, here’s a Packerswire conclusion by Zack Krause about Rodgers first big contract looking back from 2017.

“[I]ts amazing to look back to 2008, when the Packers rolled the dice and gave their new starting quarterback a contract extension after only seven starts. That decision – in accordance with the Packers’ backing of Rodgers over Favre during that long, difficult summer – should be viewed as one of the best pieces of forward thinking ever delivered by an NFL front office.”

Indeed Ted Thompson admitted as the news broke that that contract was based upon exactly the same bet on continued ascension now posed by Love after his one season starting:

“We think this is a good long-term investment for the organization. … We're looking at it from a longer view rather than just the last two months. We think he will continue to develop in his craft.”

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 09:33 am

Ted Thompson deserves a statue at Lambeau.

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LeotisHarris's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:23 am

Just when I thought we'd have to rely on Jennerjohn to unintentionally supply the April Fools' joke, sh steps up to word vomit a masterpiece.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:49 pm

I don't see Nix taken with pick #25. He may get a guy in Rd six. This is Entertainment, not to be confused with Football. It's just Accounting and the CAP will Increase by the annum. The only impediment to his career will be Injuries, just like any other gladiator.

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stockholder's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:04 pm

Purdy- Just a very good example on
Not showing somebody the money.
And I didn't have to use Tom Brady.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:16 pm

Alrighty then. Twice in 22 years a late round QB seemed to work out (not sure about Brock Purdy though ( his playoff passer rating last year didn't even hit 90). That's an awful lot of drafts where late round QBs didn't work out. Heck, most first round QBs don't work out. Well, maybe half. I think it's around 50%.

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Coldworld's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:42 pm

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 01, 2024 at 03:23 pm

Purdy gets his Pay Day, next month. He did get his team to the Big Game with a shout out to Barry. Lynch did burn three One Picks to move on Trey Lance, but S.O. in the Personnel Dept. had the brains to actually scout Iowa State and find out why they had a brilliant passing attack from 2019-21. If the Rules continue to be watered down, it will soon, just become all Air Raid. They already eliminated the Fullback.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:13 pm

Gute honors contract. NFL contracts are one-sides by their nature. A team can cut a player any time. All players know this. What kind of GM do you want? I like a GM that is able to build a roster strong enough to make the playoffs and compete for a title. He's done this 4 of the 6 seasons he's been the GM. ( I wouldn't actually count 2018 since he inherited most of that roster). So other than Rodgers' broken thumb year, GB has been a playoff team.

Oh wait, why am I replying. If you would trade Jordan Love, then you're not really worth responding to. Teams go years trying to find a guy of his calibre. If you'd rather have more salary cap available and keep a cheap QB, you better get used to losing.

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50yrfan's picture

April 04, 2024 at 08:26 am

Do you even watch football???

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Johnblood27's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:19 am

Draft and Develop.

At all positions... including QB.

All that "need a franchise QB" BS is just that... BS.

Where did paying AR get GB? Certainly NOT to the SB!

The league rules have made QB the most important - by far - player on the field. That doesn't mean that having a guy you really like and that performs near league best means that your TEAM gets to the ultimate prize. History shows that beyond Mahommes and Brady that just isn't so and even with those guys a TEAM is needed to stand smiling after the last game of the league season.

I will never stop being a TEAM guy. I unabashedly root for the laundry - not individual faces - while I appreciate everything individual players do to help my favorite franchise, they will come and go while I remain steadfast in my support of the G&G. I have outlasted each and every one of my 'heroes' so far, and I will right up until they throw dirt on me. I have survived each and every departure.

So... Draft 'em and then coach 'em up. The NFL is a league of replacement whose acronym stands for "Not For Long", even at the games most (but not only) important position. If CHAMPIONSHIPS are the goal, management of the TEAM in this salary cap era is what leads to ultimate victory, not hero worship with adoration equaling MONEY$$$$$.

There is a 'market' for player services, I get that. GB is subject to that market, I get that too. I am looking bigger picture and saying that bar pushing contracts guarantee NOTHING and that 'market' deals can leave enough to build around talent that deserves market money.

I really like Jordan Love, I like him on my favorite team. I do NOT think he deserves top 5 QB money. I have always subscribed to the tenet that you have to DO the job before you can GET the job. Outwork and outperform your competition to get ahead. Jordan Love has been good, pay him good. Once he becomes GREAT then-and only then- should GB pay him great.

or... draft and develop his replacement, just like what happens at each and every other position in the Not For Long NFL.

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Coldworld's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:47 am

What is top 5 or 10 money in year one is seldom so by year 2 or 3 with QBs. That’s why teams seek longer lengths of contracts for top QBs in part. What matters is whether the player stays healthy and performs to expectations, because the second half is almost certainly “cheap” if he does. Unfortunately that part is always a gamble.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 09:19 am

@johnblood27 - 30 consecutive years of competitive football would like to disagree with your assessment. Want a view of your unrealistic future - check out the Chicago Bears. The playoffs are not only key to the still growing fanbase, they are key to the damn economy in Green Bay. Pay that man, sell those jerseys, keep hope alive.

I feel fortunate that there are professionals in Green Bay deciding who gets paid and who gets cut, we might refer to them as the deep state in your world view. They do the dirty work so we get to enjoy Sundays (and Mondays, and occasionally Thursdays).

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:26 pm

Packer fans amaze me. They keep a competitive team on the field year after year, and now fans want to dump a successful QB they drafted so they can pay less? You think you are more likely to win a Title without a top QB? Give me a few examples please.

Going back over the last 20 years, Nick Foles is the one and only QB not among the league elite to win a Super Bowl. The rest were all top tier QBs getting paid a pretty penny.

In the NFL if you don't pay a guy who performs like Love, you lose him and start over. Then you can go years without making the playoffs. This is the most common experience of teams that say goodbye to a Hall of Famer or Super Bowl winning QB.

NE without Brady
NO without Brees
PIT without Big Ben
NYG without Eli
IND without Peyton (or Luck)

I think if you throw for more TDs than all but one guy - when you're starting your first year. And, you win a playoff game with a great performance. And, you come darn close to taking the team to the NFC Championship. Then, yes you are among the elite of the league. You are GREAT, not GOOD, and. you deserve to get paid.

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Johnblood27's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:40 pm

Im glad that youse guys are so brilliant at salary cap manipulations!

Please work on your reading comprehension.

I didnt say "dont pay Love".

I acknowledged the 'market' and the 'need' to pay him a good salary, probably around 5-15 ranking cash, that would probably average around 40-50 million per year. Not bad for a 10 game wonder. Gutey and Ball should try to get as many years of that as they can, with the option to renegotiate always available if Jordan goes all Brady and wins multiple SB.

In the meantime, all of the internet GM's want to declare Love the best thing since Babe Parilli, and while I am firmly in the camp that hopes Love is the melding of Starr, Favre and Rodgers and will lead the GBP to multiple SB, like Favre or AR could NOT, ...he hasn't done it YET. So... pay the man, sure, thats just good business in todays NFL, BUT... Do not write ANY bar-setting contracts for a 10 game wonder.

THAT is what I clearly said.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 10:16 pm

Saying it again doesn't make it any less ludicrous. He will get paid what the market bears. He will definitely get top 4 money, and he may just set the bar for every contract that comes after. Yes, it may appear crazy to you, but that doesn't matter. The Packers extended Jordan Love while saying "OK kid, prove it". Jordan Love signed that extension, bet on himself and he's about to go to the bank. Thank goodness he wears green and gold.

He proved it. Now they're going to back up a Brinks truck.

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Johnblood27's picture

April 02, 2024 at 05:55 am

There is no way the GBP make a bar-setting deal with JLove at this stage of his development.

THAT is ludicrous.

Pay him, yes... set the market? No way.

Rodgers first re-negotiation was not bar-setting and neither will Loves be.

Proven he can play is one thing, proven he can lead and win it all is quite another. Do you think one win against a pathetic group in Lambeau south is indicative of sustained championship level play? Wow, just wow...

I like Love, ...a lot. I have been advocating for him since he was drafted. I never said that taking him was anything but a great pick. I have wanted AR gone longer than anyone here and a lot of that is due to my faith in JLove.

but... paying him as the greatest of all time right now? That my friend is quite premature.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 02, 2024 at 11:03 am

You continue to mistake paying the market rate for paying for greatness. That is not how it works.

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GregC's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:21 am

There's no comparison to giving a big contract to a young, ascending player like Jordan Love and an old player like Aaron Rodgers who was due to decline at any time--and who did in fact decline. Plus there was a lot of concerning behavior from Rodgers before they gave him that last contract. There's been nothing like that with Love.

How many QBs would we rather have than Jordan Love? Patrick Mahomes for sure. Then there are a few others who are about as good as Love: Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts. But I don't think I'd take any of those guys over Love. Not Justin Herbert either.

The small sample size (only 20 games) is a byproduct of Love not starting until year four. It would be nice if he had played more games before he needed a new contract, but that's just not the way it played out. And he is clearly a keeper.

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jont's picture

April 01, 2024 at 12:04 pm

"How many QBs would we rather have than Jordan Love? Patrick Mahomes for sure. Then there are a few others who are about as good as Love...."

This is it. Simple supply and demand: very limited supply and highly inelastic demand means the player gets top dollar.

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GregC's picture

April 01, 2024 at 12:20 pm

Yep. I forgot to mention Josh Allen. A lot of people would take him over Jordan Love, but I don't think I would.

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RCPackerFan's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:32 am

You have to have a good QB to be competitive in this league. You have to have a top 10 QB to compete routinely for championships. If you get the luxury of having a top 10 QB, there should be no complaint about having to pay them. It is hard finding those guys and when you do, you have to lock them up long term.
The hard part is when you have a 10-20 ranked QB and have to pay them like they are a top 10. Thinking about guys like Russell Wilson and Daniel Jones.

Love has proved already that he is at least a top 15 QB. Based on his play as the season progressed he is a top 10 QB and needs to paid as such.

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Guam's picture

April 01, 2024 at 07:57 am

Pretty much where I'm at too. Would I love to see Love take a team friendly deal in the $40-45 million AAV range -of course I would as it would allow the Packers to have a stronger surrounding team. Is that likely to happen - no. You pay the market when your player's contract comes due if you want to keep him. Or you don't and he goes and plays for the Vikings.

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RCPackerFan's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:56 am

The really hard part is that there are so many bad to average QB's get paid a high dollar amounts. And then you have the deal that Deshaun Watson signed which really throws things off as well.

I have no problem paying what people deserve, but it is really hard when they have to pay for guys that just aren't that good. And then that just raises everyone else's salaries.

Here are the current top 5 2024 cap hits for QB's.
1- Deshaun Watson- 63,977,000
2- Dak Prescott- 55,455,000
3- Matt Stafford- 49,500,000
4- Kyler Murray- 49,118,177
5- Daniel Jones- 47,105,000

I personally would put Love ahead of all of those guys. Obviously that is just the cap hit. there are other categories for salaries.

Here are the top 10 QB's in AAV. I did 10 to show the range that you suggested. I think that would be a fair range.

1- Joe Burrow - 55,000,000
2- Justin Herbert - 52,500,000
3- Lamar Jackson - 52,000,000
4- Jalen Hurts - 51,000,000
5- Kyler Murray - 46,100,000
6- Deshaun Watson - 46,000,000
7- Kirk Cousins - 45,000,000
8- Patrick Mahomes - 45,000,000
9- Josh Allen - 43,005,667
10- Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford, Daniel Jones - 40,000,000

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 09:40 am

Deserves? You are worth what you get paid. It's incumbent on you (in every field, in every career) to make your best deal. Jordan Love will make and get paid what the market allows. There will be no discounts, no friends and neighbors arrangements, nothing.

Think of it this way, he's the star of your favorite TV show. I often wonder if kids who grew up putting on plays in their basements, starring in their school talent shows sit at home while watching Barbie say to themselves, goddamn that Margo Robbie, I can't believe she made $50 million for acting in that movie, I would have done that for free...

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RCPackerFan's picture

April 01, 2024 at 11:37 am

Yes you are worth what you are paid.

Unfortunately the numbers get skewed by teams paying players more then what they should be. Nothing wrong with players fighting for what they can. I don't blame them at all. No different then any worker in every trade.

When we talk about the Top QB's in the league, I never hear Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson being mentioned as one of them. Yet they are some of the highest paid QB's, depending on what metric you want to use.

I get what you are saying in terms of movies and whatnot. Though I'm not saying that these people aren't worth the money they are making. What I'm saying is comparing the players they should be paid more based on what others are making. Should any QB make more then Mahomes? No, they shouldn't. But I get when a Joe Burrow signs a deal after and he would get paid more. I get that process. But the Kyler Murrays or Dak Prescotts or Daniel Jones's shouldn't be making more.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 12:21 pm

again, my point is that it shouldn't diminish your enjoyment of football. i never watch a movie thinking dammit, that semi-talented Leonardo diCaprio has no business fucking up the salary scale for blockbuster hits with his outsized salary.

Also, I'm delighted when other teams overpay for substandard quarterbacking. There are 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL, that means there are 32 to 50 people capable of doing what they do on the planet today. That seems to be a worthy place to start salary discussions. Also, the NFL is the most popular entertainment on television by a mile, and besides being athletes, these guys are entertainers. Are you not entertained? Here we are in the deadest of off-seasons, having extended conversations on things we have absolutely no chance of influencing, I'd say whatever these guys earn, it's a fair wage.

I'm sure the proprietors of this website thank their lucky stars that they get to earn their keep in the slipstream of Jordan Love's salary negotiations.

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T7Steve's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:26 pm

Try to keep it clean, please. My mother sometimes reads this.

I guess she's old enough, since I'm 65 and the youngest of 5 kids.

Thanks.

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T7Steve's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:24 pm

Sorry I made the mistake of trying to make a joke. I realize I'm just funny in my own mind.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 04:10 pm

T7, it is April 1st after all.

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crayzpackfan's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:31 pm

Bitternotsour - Quick question for you (and everyone here) that I, myself, haven't really thought about with any amount of depth or consideration to the pros and cons, but do you think the NFL owners will ever collectively bargain for max contracts? In other words, will there ever be a cap on what players or positions can earn? What would that look like? Would it be a good thing for the NFL or a bad thing?

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T7Steve's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:02 pm

Only if the owners decided they'd made enough money. Would they cap their earnings?

I think we've talked here about a cap percentage for each position. Not a cap $ amount.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 04:08 pm

Why would players agree to that? I'm sure the owners would be delighted to have caps on position pay. Every dollar they don't pay a player is money in their pocket. The better question would be the owners giving up some of their outsized profits to create an even better product on the field.

As I've said elsewhere, I don't watch football to see Jerry Jones drinking bourbon in his suite.

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CoachJV's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:21 am

ARod had a much SMALLER sample size than Love when he received his first extension after Favre left. So why is it an issue for Love? My guess is that many people who are complaining about it were not GB fans before Arod came along.
I think it's best if we let the FO do their job while we be grateful for our 4th good franchise QB in a row.

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:35 am

I was born in Wisconsin and remained there through my entire education and have lived most all of my life in California because of my type of work. However, in my heart I still feel like a Wisconsinite and never in my lifetime would I ever thought that anyone would be paid $50 million a year to play a game that I loved as a kid and have it considered a bargain.

I still clearly remember the old days when we were little kids and we used to go over to the used car lot where John Martinkovic worked selling used cars to supplement his Packers salary. He was a defensive end for the Packers just prior to the Lombardi years and when things were slow he would throw the football around with us youngsters and we thought we were on top of the world. The Packer players in the 1950's probably made about what our dad's used to make working their jobs and since football and teaching had breaks during the year many of the people from those two professions used to supplement their incomes with additional jobs. I think Mr. Martinkovic would be surprised by what the modern day professional football player makes playing the game he loved.

I guess most football experts would just classify Mr. Martinkovic as a JAG (just another guy) in football terms, but to a handful of little kids from that era, he was a local hero.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:29 pm

Yep and in the Bart Starr era a loaf of bread cost 22 cents and a gallon of gas was 30 cent. So QB salaries are different too.

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ricky's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:35 am

As you note, around $50 million a year is the going rate, and you either pay up and hope the QB stays healthy and effective, or you refuse and join the scramble for a cheaper alternative. Is it a risk? Yes. That is why the structure of the contract is so important. Love exceeded expectations with a group of rookie receivers and a suspect defense. Pay the man, and once the hype and clamor over the size of the entire contract is over, look at what the contract actually obligates the Packers to pay.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 01, 2024 at 09:02 am

There are two major risks in not getting Love signed to a new contract. First is that he goes out and has a season like the final 8 weeks of 2023 and more QBs sign deals so Love costs more. Second is you alienate him and you have to use the franchise tag on Love and he demands a trade OR a team happily gives up 2 R1s for Love and we lose him.

On the other side there are two major risks with signing Love. First is that Love regresses and looks like Daniel Jones after signing a big contract. I think this is less likely as Love played better in 2023 than Jones ever did. Second is Love gets hurt on play 3 of the season and it ends up being a career ending injury.

Overall the risk/reward is better to sign Love IMO.

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packer132's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:39 am

I am pumped for this Packers team and can't wait to see the new players drafted to help a rising team. Love showed last year that he was willing to put in the work with the young receivers and it paid off. He is doing the same this year and isn't too good to want to get in the practice time with the "younger" WR's before team workouts start. He also has a great attitude AND the respect of the team after a year of starting. He is humble, hardworking, and ready to improve. His recent post says a lot about the man.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 01, 2024 at 08:54 am

For all of the posters who don't think Love "deserves $50 million per year for 20 games experience, including Stockholder, who never ceases to amaze me with his ability to alienate and disagree with 95% of the posters here. What is the alternative?
Let's wait and compete with other NFL teams so we can pay $60 million per year.

Do you think Jerry Jones wouldn't pay Love rather than keep paying Dak?

Hey let's start over by elevating Sean Clifford to QB1. Maybe we can win 3 games with him.

How about we just find a guy playing sandlot football somewhere and make him the QB.

Backups who never play make $15 million. Journeymen QBs like Baker Mayfield get $35 million.

If Love had played 2 full years showing the talent he has, we would be looking @ $60 to $65 million per year.

Reading this crap is mind boggling. This is how it works in the NFL. Lock him up for the $50 million before it goes up.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:43 pm

Thank you! The only non-elite QBs to win a Title since the Favre-led Super Bowl are Nick Foles and Brad Johnson. The rest had names like Brady, Brees, Manning Roethlisberger, Rodgers and Mahomes. I don't like the odds of tossing Love out for draft picks and trying to win that way.

Plus, am I the only fan that loves watching a talented team on the field, even when they didn't hoist a trophy at the end of the year? I mean, Rodgers to Jordy, or to Adams; that's entertainment right there, whether they got a ring or not. It's so tough to win a Super Bowl; I don't throw out the entire season as a waste every year but '97 and 2010.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:44 pm

SH is just lashing out cuz hes still mad about Rodgers being traded. He never gave Love a chance to begin with and now hes holding onto the remote hope that Love will regress and prove him right. SH is so full of pride and pettiness that he has basically sabotaged his own fan experience.

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Racingdad's picture

April 01, 2024 at 09:06 am

I have no problem with gb giving j love the market price contract ( maybe even more as has been the norm here) you don’t draft a guy out of the blue like many thought . The packers spent 2-yrs researching love before drafting him . They know exactly what they have in him . IMHO Gute wanted to trade arod one year earlier and Murphy stopped that . But it all worked out now. Who knows maybe we would have not found the wrs and te’s that we did . So keep the faith in gute and our fo -they will get this correct also !!! GPG

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 01, 2024 at 10:34 am

Any QB contract of this size and magnitude should have an emergency exit. I'll call it the Daniel Jones Egress (DJE). How it would work is that after 1 year into in a QBs 2nd / 3rd contract - management can release that Player with a lump sum payment equal to 50% of the Player's average annual salary X the no. of years remaining on his contract. The yearly cap hit would then be reduced accordingly - over the same no. of years - as per the original contract.

Too many times a team is shackled by bad managerial decisions and/ bad QB performance(s). The DJE could provide a way for a team to unshackle itself from a miserable future. Thus I would have little or no trepidation if Love was signed to a 50m/yr X 5 yr. contract - if it also contained a DJE.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:44 pm

You gotta get the agent/player to agree to the deal. How are you gonna do that? And you take the chance of creating bad feelings between the most important player on the field and the front office. I don't want that.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 01, 2024 at 03:19 pm

The agents nor the QBs will agree to this - unless it is included in the C.B.A. Because nothing says easy money - to both an agent and QB - like a guaranteed contract. However should the QB under perform - in any or all of his contract - it is the fans who ultimately pay. Both in terms of their personal finances and entertainment. However, rarely have the billionaire owners and myopic GMs ever put the fans interests ahead of their own.

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GregC's picture

April 01, 2024 at 04:16 pm

I don't think this hurts the fans overall. It stinks when your own team gets stuck with a bad contract, but it is quite wonderful when the same thing happens to one of your team's rivals. The rules are the same for all teams, and it is up to each GM to make the best use of those rules.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 01, 2024 at 05:11 pm

It doesn't hurt the fans? Who ultimately pays for the management and players salaries? The price of tickets has surged far beyond inflation over the past few decades. So much so - that an NFL ticket is now far beyond the affordable reach of many Americans.

In 2019 the top paid QB was Russell Wilson at 35m per year. Today (2024) the highest paid QB is Joe Burrows at an a.a.s. of 55m per year. That's an increase of approximately 64% in just 5 years. Meanwhile the inflation rate for that same 5 year period was 20.6%.

Why the big difference? Due largely that Billionaire Owners and their agents (GMs) are playing with fan monies. It's not coming from their pockets. So there are no harsh consequences for their egoism and incompetency.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 05:48 pm

The TV contract dwarfs any revenue from ticket sales. Also too, you may note that the stadiums aren't empty, and supply/demand generally sets the price.

You're wrong about money not coming from the owners pockets, if the owners could lower the cost of labor, they'd do it, and there's no way in hell that ticket prices would drop a dime.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 01, 2024 at 09:28 pm

The TV contract does not dwarf ticket sales. While TV revenue accounts for about 2/3rds of the League's total revenue - ticket sales are also significant.

As for supply and demand. Teams typically create a limited supply of seats, and increased competition for those seats among people with disposable income is driving up prices. This has been called "funflation." The NFL is focused on providing a luxury good - intended for only about 70,000 people in any given city. Frankly, Teams and the NFL don’t really care if families can’t afford the seats - as long as they can still hook them watching TV.

As for Owners interested in lowering the cost of labor. Why do they, through their GMs, persistently over pay for free agents - every year? Sometimes bidding against themselves.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 09:52 pm

The salary caps prescribe the amount of spending on contracts. It's based on revenue and it's collectively bargained. That salary pool is the same across the league, team to team. It's why there is parity in the league, and also why some franchises are better than others, based on how they spend that pool of money.

Also, the TV contract being 2/3 of all revenue means that it's the predominant revenue stream. I'm not disputing that the gate isn't a revenue source, just that it's insignificant. Teams also generate revenue thru branded merchandise and it's one of the reasons the Packers have a sledding hill for example.

As to a "limited supply of seats" that is simply the physical capability of a stadium to hold people. The NFL is premium entertainment. If you just want to watch football your local high school has games on Friday nights. You can likely see a local band at a neighborhood bar for a $10 cover charge, but if you want to see Bruce Springsteen or Taylor Swift or Beyonce you have to be prepared to the pay the freight. I'm not sure what your beef is, you want a Kia buy a Kia, you want to drive a Mercedes, it costs more.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 01, 2024 at 11:23 pm

I used to drive a Mercedes. Good engineering - but parts and labor were always at a premium cost (overpriced). Also not the best vehicle to drive during a Canadian winter. For the last 6 years I have driven a Kia Sedona. The need for parts and labor have been far less - with an operating cost at a fraction of a Mercedes. Also it has been a very dependable winter performer for me. I have come to appreciate the importance of value over price. “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” ― Warren Buffett

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NFLfan's picture

April 01, 2024 at 10:55 am

If I understand Love's current contract, the extension cannot take place until after next season concludes. That should be plenty of time to assess his value. If he continues to play @ the same level he did in the last 1/2 of the season, I am 100% in favor of paying him market rate--$50+M.

I've been carefully watching Love's words and body language in the recent slew of interviews. (I'm trying to sniff out potential narcissism or signs of disingenuous behavior). So far, my BS meter is not pinging. He seems fair, even-tempered, willing to give heartfelt compliments, wise beyond his years.

My blood pressure is finally coming down.

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GregC's picture

April 01, 2024 at 11:22 am

Love will be able to sign an extension next month (May), and that's when it's going to happen.

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NFLfan's picture

April 01, 2024 at 05:54 pm

My mistake- I was getting my 'May's' mixed up.
Packers have to pay him--my guess is $50M +/-

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cheesehead1's picture

April 01, 2024 at 11:05 am

Personally, I’d like to watch him play the first half this season then go from there. There’s still plenty of time IMO.

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GregC's picture

April 01, 2024 at 11:30 am

I doubt that this is a real option. When Love signed his extension last May, it was essentially a one-year "prove it" deal, and there was probably an understanding that if he played well enough (which he did) he would get a new longer-term contract before the 2024 season. That would make the most sense for the stability of the franchise and the locker room.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 01, 2024 at 11:30 am

May 3rd is the date that GB can extend Love, and they should get his signature on the contract ASAP. No, we shouldn't wait until 1/2 way through the season. And No, we definitely should not wait until after the year to try to extend him. Who do you think has all the leverage in those scenarios. The biggest mistake the Packers could make is to drag this out to a point where Love starts to question how much GB really wants him.

The absolute last thing we want is for other teams to get the opportunity to outbid us. $50 million might seem cheap at that point. Especially if Love has even a decent year in 2024.

The alternatives are we lose Love and get to start Sean Clifford next year? Or we could move up to draft one and give away this year's draft and next year's top 2 picks. No No No No!!!!! Get it done soon and 2025 is going to be a really big year for the Packers.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 01, 2024 at 11:31 am

Guys.....this is our Super Bowl window. Pay Love and get on with it. If he doesn't get us to the promised land, start over after this contract. IMO, that's the mistake we've made with Rodgers and Favre: Favre was given new deals long after his only Super Bowl win. Rodgers, too. IMO, if a QB is on the bad side of 30, and he hasn't been to the Super Bowl in the last couple of years, you should be replacing him, not extending him.

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T7Steve's picture

April 01, 2024 at 12:19 pm

What if it wasn't totally the QB's fault that they didn't get to the Super Bowl? It would have been hard to replace either of those QBs' production at 31, wouldn't it?

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 12:28 pm

Hard to put that Bostic fumble on the quarterback contract. That was the gods conspiring against us.

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jont's picture

April 01, 2024 at 12:11 pm

$50,000,000 is a lot of dollars.

The NFL is a multi-billion dollar business and if anybody gets a big cut it should be the players, yes?

The market sets the price and the CBA is 95% of the contract so let's hope GB manages the cap hit fairly well, and let's get the season started.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 12:30 pm

This could be easily settled by giving the players a bigger cut of the CBA money. I pay my money to watch Jordan Love, NOT Jerry Jones in an owners box.

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T7Steve's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:07 pm

I think that's going to happen in the next CBA especially if, at that time they extend the season to 18 games. I still think that they'll have to do another contract with Love before then.

I sure hope they don't dilute the NFL season further by adding another game. Getting off the subject of this discussion, I guess.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:19 pm

16 was plenty for me.

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PackerBackerAZ's picture

April 01, 2024 at 03:24 pm

I watch as many Cowboy games as I can so that I get to see the look on Jerry's face every time they lose. That is truly priceless.

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calabasa's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:02 pm

PAY THE MAN. I said it on a Packers Daily a while back- let's not alienate a 3rd consecutive franchise QB. Not saying it was the team's fault with either of those, but let's show him we're committed to him from the get go. We already bought some time to evaluate him, and he crushed it. Let's get him locked up and move on to other positions. Why not? It's not real money anyway. Let's have fun and not sew any seeds of future BS. PAY THE MAN!!

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crayzpackfan's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:37 pm

Pay Him. Pay that man his money. (In the voice of KGB's voice in Rounders).

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:49 pm

Packers never alienated the first 2 qbs. They alienated themselves from the Packers and forced the team's hand. They are victims of their own egos and nothing else. Love has nothing in common with either of them beyond the position he plays and team he plays for.

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calabasa's picture

April 01, 2024 at 03:26 pm

hard to argue, since those 2 did have crazy egos. I'm saying, let's not try to get cute with Love's extension as some are suggesting, by waiting a few games or trying to underpay in some way. Just pay him and show him he's the guy.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:03 pm

He's going to get a 5 year deal between $237.5-262.5 million($47.5-52.5 M AV), the only question is how much is guaranteed and of they make a portion incentive based.

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stockholder's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:37 pm

What makes him worth it?

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crayzpackfan's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:43 pm

What makes him NOT worth it?

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stockholder's picture

April 01, 2024 at 01:47 pm

You have to answer my Question first.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2024 at 02:55 pm

Because very few players can and have done what Jordan Love did his first year. Love and Mahomes are the only 2 QBs to have ever done the following in one season:
4000+ passing yards
30+ passing TDs
200+ rushing yards
4+ rushing TDs
5 or fewer turnovers
30 or less sacks taken

That's pretty elite company there. And it's his first year starting. Most players get better their 2nd and 3rd year as they continue to grow into the position.

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stockholder's picture

April 01, 2024 at 05:06 pm

Because of. IF- ????????????
Franchise him until the IF is Gone.

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Coldworld's picture

April 01, 2024 at 05:20 pm

You said the same thing of Rodgers, endlessly, until during the 2010 season. See talent bet on it, that’s the NFL way. Sometimes you lose, but we’ve seen more than the 8 games it took starting to get Rodgers deal done. Of course it took another 2 years for you to accept that then.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 01, 2024 at 03:43 pm

They got Love on easy money last season for a starting QB, while still writing down the Rodger's lead balloon. Love took the chips and doubled-down to a Pro Bowl performance once he had an O line which could protect him and Jones showing up for Part Two of the season. I still have him behind only Herbert in the 2020 Draft hierarchy.

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PackerBackerAZ's picture

April 01, 2024 at 03:20 pm

How does the author of this blog come to the conclusion that Josh Jacobs is a significant roster improvement over Aaron Jones? Given Jones' health and performance over his final 5 games played, I don't see any improvement signing Jacobs over Jones. In fact, given Jones' leadership, I see a potential decline at the running back position and team production.
One great half of a season, albeit the second half, doesn't earn an elite quarterback contract. It would be prudent for the Packers to evaluate Love for at least the first half of the 2024 season. Let him demonstrate that he will be playing at an elite level for the length of the contract, if healthy. The second half of 2023 and first half of 2024, at the same level of play, would be proof of his elite ability. I want the second half of 2023 Love for the Packers going forward. I just want the Packers to be sure that the first half of 2023 Love isn't going to show up half the time.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2024 at 03:45 pm

Is it prudent though? If Love plays the way he played the last half of the 2023 season, and why shouldn't he, the price just goes up and up.

There is no "sure" when giving out contracts on future performance, like EVER. And as for Jones vs Jacobs, Jones is almost 4 years older and has been on a snap count for much of his career. Jacobs has been a workhouse, not on a snap count. I mean, the guy led the league in rushing the year prior to last. That sure looks like a roster improvement, though only time will tell.

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Packers0808's picture

April 01, 2024 at 03:25 pm

Big question when the opposing coaches figure out how defend against Love will he as as effective and with the money over a long extended contract. Hope Packers learned a lesson with Rodgers and Bakh not to hurry into this! Never hurry into the really unknown yet. Give it another year or time!

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golfpacker1's picture

April 01, 2024 at 05:03 pm

Yeah, that's a great idea. Lets tell Jordan Love to play his A$$ off this year, AGAIN, and maybe we will pony up the cash after the season. But maybe Jordan, you can give us a discount to boot, for us not trusting that you really are good.

When free agency started this year there were some posters who wanted GB to just sign the best FAs no matter the cost. When I and others argued against that way of doing business, they countered with "What do you care, it's not coming out of your pocket?" Well, this money is to resign the current very talented QB to a pretty much league standard contract. In line with what NFL QBs are getting paid in 2024.

Are you "Let's wait and see how Love does this year before we pay him" fans really wanting to chance losing him to another team in a bidding war? And starting over from scratch? When we are sitting here at the start of a 5-year window of competing for championships?

I don't have an exact figure but there are probably 15-20 teams that would get in on that bidding war. stop arguing about what is merely the cost of doing business in the NFL.

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