The Lass Word: Stats That Make No Sense

Why is the defense at its worst against the worst?

The Tampa Bay Bucs rank 20th in the NFL in points per game at 21.1.  The Minnesota Vikings rank 21st in points scored averaging 20.7.  The Atlanta Falcons rank 26th and are scoring just 18.4 per game.  The Pittsburgh Steelers rank 28th and score just 15.9 per contest.  The New York Giants rank 31st and they are putting a paltry 13.5 points on the board each game. 

These teams have several things in common and I’ll bet you can guess what they are.  First of all, they all rank below the Green Bay Packers, who stand 18th in points per game scoring at a clip of 21.4.  Yet all five of these teams defeated the Packers this season.  And in the process of doing so, all five exceeded their points per game average.   

But now consider these stats.  The Detroit Lions rank 5th in points per game at 27.3.  The Los Angeles Rams stand 9th in scoring and average 23.4  The Kansas City Chiefs are tenth at 22.8  The New Orleans Saints are 13th and average 22.1.  These teams also have several things in common.  They all rank ahead of the Packers in scoring.  Yet Green Bay beat all four of them, and in doing so held each of them below their per game scoring average. 

What conclusions can we draw from this?  Well, for one thing, it tells you the Joe Barry defense is not completely hopeless. They are capable of playing well.  They have the talent.  They have shown the ability to rise to the occasion at times.  They seem to play their best against the better teams.  But for some curious reason they are least prepared, least organized and least effective against the worst teams.  They have contained quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff and Justin Fields.  But they fail miserably against the likes of Desmond Ridder, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kenny Pickett, Baker Mayfield and Tommy De Vito.  The worst quarterbacks in the league seem to have career highlight days against Green Bay. 

Which makes Sunday’s contest against the 2-12 Carolina Panthers quite interesting.  The Panthers bring another anemic offense to the field against the green and gold.  They stand 29th in scoring at 14.7 per game.  They haven’t scored twenty points or more since October 15th.  Their quarterback, Bryce Young, was the number one overall pick in the draft last spring, but has struggled mightily.  He hasn’t been getting much help from an ineffective run game, an offensive line that can’t protect, and a lack of quality receivers.  When aging Vikings castoff Adam Thielen is your number one receiver you’ve got issues. 

Young has had just one impressive game all season.  He broke out against the Lions, of all teams, in week four, throwing for a career best 247 yards and three touchdowns.  But the former Alabama All American has wallowed in mediocrity ever since.  Last Sunday in a driving rainstorm, the Panthers managed somehow to beat the Falcons 9-7, a game in which Young threw for just 146 yards with two interceptions. 

On paper, the Packers should have a tremendous advantage at quarterback in this game.  Jordan Love ranks 10th in the league in passing yards.  Young is 22nd.  Love stands 5th in touchdown passes.  Young is 26th.  Love ranks 24th in completion percentage, while Young is 30th.  Love is 17th in quarterback rating, Young is 32nd.  Love has even out rushed Young 234 yards to 210.  It should be no contest.  But one has to wonder if the rookie will join the ranks of De Vito, Ridder, Mayfield et al who suddenly become Dan Marino when they play the Packers defense. 

Another intriguing thing to watch will be the Panthers running game.  Their leading ball carrier is Chuba Hubbard, who ranks 19th in the league, averaging 3.9 yards per carry.  He’s been hot lately, averaging 92 yards per game over the last three weeks. By now you are well aware of Green Bay’s inability to stop the run.  Will Hubbard suddenly look like the second coming of Barry Sanders against the Joe Barry defense? Dominating time of possession by running the ball is Carolina’s path to winning the game and will no doubt be their strategy.  

When you look at Green Bay’s games against the good teams and the bad, the defensive stats make no sense.  They are the reverse of what logic would suggest.  The oddsmakers have made the Packers four point favorites.  This should be a get-well game. 

The question is, for which team?  

 

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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5 points
 

Comments (21)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
TarynsEyes's picture

December 21, 2023 at 04:10 pm

Stats are a by-product of coaching, player execution, scheme, and in-game adjustments, which is why the numbers vary some or a lot week to week. When watching the game, are you (everyone) looking for stats or how the game is being approached on both sides of the ball.

Stats are meaningless, unless they can be legitimately applied to what you see. Too many use averages as a guide or end -all as to production, when all they do is hide the terrible or inflate the mediocre, or support the great when actually applicable.

The margins between the 15th and 20th are often too narrow to make one seem much better than another. Success in situations makes the difference in winning and losing, regardless of rankings or statistical averages.

The Packers should win this game, because the Panthers are terrible in defining situations, at least worse than GB, and averages/rankings have nothing to do with it.

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Since'75's picture

December 21, 2023 at 07:04 pm

Stats aren't meaningless, they are used in every home, every media forum, every game by announcers, everywhere, everyday, 24/7..365.

Stats are informative, very informative, it lets you know what a player has 'accomplished overall' or in a singular games.
It is the exact same concerning team stats.
Stats just need to be used in the correct context.

Just a couple of examples
I could go on and on and on why i like stats, i like checking box scores after each game, it tells me the tone of the game.
Player stats, i like knowing if a receiver has a 72% catch rate or a 53% catch rate, among a 100 other things.
But, yea...they play the game for a reason, the game isn't won/lost on paper.

Some mention stupid stats like how a team does when it's under 34 degree's, or if there is a half moon...lol
IGNF about that stuff.
***************
The Packers should win this game against the Carolina cupcakes, because, cupcakes🧁🤷‍♂️
And....it would be damn embarrassing to lose.

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Coldworld's picture

December 22, 2023 at 06:32 am

Stats are a filter. How appropriate the stats used are is critical. If the filter is partial then the implied conclusions can be diametrically misleading. Hence the expression “lies, damned lies and statistics.”

As to the dichotomy addressed in this piece, it’s possibly a good indication of the importance of game planning and calling, in the two recent games, opponents thoroughly out planned and adjusted Barry.

Essentially they anticipated what he’d have our D do, played to exploit that and he never adjusted. In the previous games, we had leads and knocked the opponents off their plans or they were not as well crafted and didn’t exploit our weaknesses.

It’s not just players, it’s how you prepare and use them. Those stats don’t account for that in large part, particularly in a parity league.

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Since'75's picture

December 22, 2023 at 09:39 am

Lets not overthink it, stats aren't that complicated.
**************
I guess someone disagrees 🤷‍♂️😲

I hope he didn't think getting his GED was that complicated. 🙄

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LeotisHarris's picture

December 21, 2023 at 04:12 pm

Way too many maths for me, Ken. All them suh-tiss-ticks do is dumbfound those of us with slender brains and short attention spans. Here's all we need to know (I learned it from Mark Tauscher on the radio). Ya see, Joe Barry's D was designed to be effective against 8-man football teams that don't want to score. Scheme-wise, Joe's ideal opponent will focus entirely on matriculating the ball up and down the field between the 20s. No scoring. Any field goal attempts are pulled or shanked. Time of possession doesn't matter. All them analytics are just, well, you know what they say; you can't spell analytics without "anal."

See, that way, the D is always playing with a lead, and, *insert heavenly angels choir here*, any communication issues are inconsequential. If woes pop up, a big meeting will be held a day or two after the game and some things will be said. That's it!

8 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

December 21, 2023 at 08:48 pm

That was an easily understood synopsis, LeotisHarris. And sans math to boot!

And I was pleased to read there was a big meeting after Sunday's woes. Since the defense has communication issues, I hope they were overcome when some things were said.

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splitpea1's picture

December 21, 2023 at 04:14 pm

When you have as much difficulty containing the run as the Packers do, you don't need a great QB to win. With the exception of two contests, NO and MIN, we have not stymied any opponent's rushing game. You also don't need a great QB when your defenders are playing so far off the receivers that you're inviting him to complete the pass; and that's undoubtedly one of the reasons we're 25th in third-down conversion percentage.

"They have the talent." This is mostly true as far as draft status and athletic traits are concerned, but there's a lot more to than that. Is it the right mix of talent? Is physicality an issue in a couple of positions? Is pass defense stressed so much that run defense is an afterthought? Is there enough film review and preparation on the part of the individuals so that they're aware of all their assignments? Have they been trained to tackle properly? Are they mentally ready to take on all opponents or do they just perk up when the more daunting opponents lie in wait?

When you have a defense that has underperformed to this degree, the entire operation needs to be put under the microscope and viewed/corrected by a highly qualified outsider. Whether or not the Packers' decision makers have the firmness of mind and skill to make this happen still remains to be seen.

5 points
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Vachio's picture

December 21, 2023 at 06:02 pm

Said it on another post but it's worth repeating. Bryce Young might make it 3 weeks in a row that the NFC Offensive Player of the Week is the opposing QB. I'll be shocked if he doesn't have his best game of the season. Which is just sad.

5 points
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Since'75's picture

December 21, 2023 at 06:44 pm

This is as good as any article to explain my thoughts on the Packers and Barry (in a moment).

But first, i'll respond to the comment posed by Mr. Lass about why the Packers beat teams with a strong offense's.
Namely the Saints, Rams, Chiefs, and Lions....
"Yet Green Bay beat all four of them, and in doing so held each of them below their per game scoring average." - Ken.
(IDK.....give some credit to the defense?)

Well...We lose to the Saints if not for a missed field goal.
The three others.....scoring averages are a combination of playing a lot of different teams. There are different matchups, coaches game plans are different. There are many variables in a week to week league.
Games aren't played on paper.

If team X beats team Z, who just beat team Y.
That doesn't mean that team Y can't beat team X. (Give it a minute, 😏).
******************
As far as firing Barry, and i DON'T disagree.
There is no reason to fire him now, Why?...out of angst, disgust, hate, would it make you feel better?

3 games isn't going to change the defense one bit, they'll still call the same coverages, use the same language, etc.
Can MLF even fire Barry, does he need approval from the Boss man in charge, none of us know that.
I'll say this, if MLF considers Barry a friend, can you blame him for waiting until seasons end to fire him?
I mean c'mon.

The Packers have a 25% chance of making the playoffs, not the 93% if the Packers "win out".
The Packers hardly control their own destiny here.
*************************
As far as the defense giving up huge yards, huge rushing yardage, making young unheralded QB's look good.
IS THIS SOMETHING NEW?
Did this just start happening?....lmao
Hell no, this has been going on for a decade plus, any informed Packer fan knows this.

Has it continued with Barry...yes it has, but again, this is not new.

What stands out against Barry...is all the resources that the Packers have dedicated to the defense, that is part of the outrage over Barry, not putting it all together, and i agree, to a point!!

Lets not pretend that all of our so called defensive stars, play like stars week in, week out.
All the hype of top draft picks that haven't produced sans Alexander.

Plus we now have our Preston Smiths.....
Players who make a play every so often to let you know they are still a Packer.
I love me some Kenny Clark, and he just had a nice game recently, but lets be honest, we don't hear from him very often.
Rashan Gary is a one move guy with a tremendous high performance motor, but he is not in the elite.
If 'hurries' were wins, we'd have a couple more trophy's in the case.

Does anyone really believe that Quay Walker should be the 'Mike'?
I love Quay Walker, every so often he makes a play, but mostly, he doesn't let the ball carrier get to far past the first down marker (cough).
See AJ Hawk.

You could make the argument that Barry should have been let go after last season, and i wouldn't disagree.
But he wasn't for reasons we can only assume.

Bottomline........

There is shared blame here down the line, Murphy, Gute, MLF, Barry.....
He'll be let go at seasons end, no doubt.

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bleedgreen's picture

December 21, 2023 at 07:27 pm

They have wasted 3 seasons with Barry. You could argue many more wasted with Pettine and Capers. 3 seasons alone is an eternity in the nfl. We have wasted an immense amount of draft capital on this defense. Most of it in highly drafted failed defensive backs. I have no faith in mlfs coaching, game planning or motivational ability. I don't think based on track record that gutenkunst drafts well either and I don't think their scouting is very good. My preference would be to clean house but this probably won't happen until Murphy is gone

4 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

December 21, 2023 at 07:45 pm

I love to go sledding.

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Since'75's picture

December 21, 2023 at 08:15 pm

@bleedgreen....

Yea, i would have deciphered on Capers and how he was kept on too long and some result similarities.
But i figured it was long enough🙄

The scary thing about waiting for Murphy to be gone for changes, is Murphy elevating someone from within, like Ball or Policy, then all bets for change are off, but time will tell.

Although it doesn't cover all the drama under Murphy and Gute, with Rodgers and the drafting of Love..or as i called, drafting for the future during a SB window.
You might like this read bleedgreen...
https://lombardiave.com/posts/packers-plague-franchise-lacking-accountab...

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ImaPayne's picture

December 21, 2023 at 08:38 pm

Okay my two cents and I'll try and make some sense. First my ob goes back about four years.
I used to sit and say, what is wrong with the team playing us running a lot. This is the worse pass d in football, pass against us and you win.
Now the crazy part, most teams had so much freaking success running, they never really went upstairs much. So they didn't exploit the packs real weakness, the pass.
The BUCS abandoned the run and they have a great run game but they realized the big chunks of yardage was via the pass.
Thus our pass d always sucked but the run d was so bad nobody passed that much.

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Since'75's picture

December 21, 2023 at 08:47 pm

Which explains why Kevin King was (and still is) unemployed at age 27, and Amos is no longer with the Packers.

See the 2020 NFCCG.

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Coldworld's picture

December 22, 2023 at 06:40 am

Amos has quietly had a decent year. He’s higher rated by PFF than any Packer safety this year and nearly 20 points higher than last year with us despite no camp with the Jets and then moving teams. PFF has him at a bona fide starter level. It looks more than plausible that getting away from Barry has extended his career. Is it the player or what is being asked of them?

1 points
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Since'75's picture

December 22, 2023 at 09:32 am

That has also happened before CW, think Micah Hyde and.....what's his face that i'm too lazy to look up.
*************
Davon House

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exbody's picture

December 21, 2023 at 09:10 pm

Mike Daniels, former GBP D-lineman gave a very good and accurate assessment of the "culture" of the Packers philosophy on playing defense and the consistent display of a "soft" mindset.
The facts seem to support this. We need to look bi further than the complete beat down in post season play the last several plus years.
The Colin Kapernick led 49ers when he single handedly destroyed the Packers running all over lambeau field. An embarrassing performance as the defense had no answer. The physical 49ers have owned the Packers in recent history with their physical style. Physical teams have consistently punched the Packers in the mouth with little to no resistance.
It's really very simple. When you have a soft defensive philosophy you get a soft mindset on the field that results in soft performances
Barry already told all of us earlier today at his PC that there will be no drastic changes to his approach.
So be warned Packers fans. Prepare yourselves for more SOFT shell coverages and another SOFT performance (s) the rest of the season.
If MLF's main priority is winning then hearing Barry's pressor today should have sparked an immediate meeting with his buddy Joe.

3 points
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sherrygilliland's picture

December 21, 2023 at 09:56 pm

i watched this match on and i saw that. That seems appropriate. Upon powering up, WiFi ought to be available (unless the WiFi firmware still has to be flashed).

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Lphill's picture

December 22, 2023 at 06:31 am

AT the end of the day MLF is responsible for all coaching decisions , he just is not the right fit for this team .

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Coldworld's picture

December 22, 2023 at 06:48 am

He’s never grown into the Head Coach role. He’s a good communicator who sold Murphy on a vision he lacks the personality and management skills to deliver upon. After 5 years, it’s pretty clear it’s not inexperience but inability. There’s no growth or evolution and the problems are both similar and as fundamental as they were when he started.

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Packer_Fan's picture

December 22, 2023 at 07:09 am

So, Barry defended his defense yesterday. And things won't be changing much. Well we shouldn't be expecting anything different. Ken, you have caught the key. They play well against the good QB's. Meaning they respond well to a challenge. Against the poorer QB's, the challenge is to attack and don't let them get into rhythm. This never happens with Barry.

How many times do we see in games that teams make adjustments in game and by the second half, the defense can't stop anything. Happened in the Giants game. Happened in the Buc's game.

What will happen against Carolina. If they score over 20 points, They will have a chance to win the game. yup, can't wait to see what happens..... So sad

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