The Playoff Path For the Green Bay Packers

If the Packers beat the Vikings and the Lions, they have a good shot to make the playoffs

When the Green Bay Packers were 4-8, anyone could say (and almost everyone in fact did) that their season was over. Four weeks and three games later, they are truly alive in a murdy NFC playoff race. Their chances of making the playoffs were as low as 3% according to Five Thirty Eight. They were 11% before the win over the Miami Dolphins, and now they stand at 27%. If the Packers win out, beating the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions, they only need the Washington Commanders to lose one more game (to the Cleveland Browns or Dallas Cowboys) to get in.

"Definitely better than three weeks ago, or four weeks ago I guess, with the bye," quarterback Aaron Rodgers said after the game in Miami. "Yeah, getting better."

The path, however, is still extremely difficult. Getting in would already be hard enough, but a qualification means the Packers would probably be the seventh seed — unless the Commanders lose one game and the New York Giants lose both, to the Indianapolis Colts and to the Philadelphia Eagles. As the seventh seed, the Packers would face the second seed in the NFC. Considering the Packers would have beaten the Vikings, that would open the way for the San Francisco 49ers to be there. If they win in San Francisco, as the worst qualified seed, the Packers would face the first seed Philadelphia Eagles right out of the bye.

That's a similar scenario to the one they faced after the 2010 postseason. By that time, though, only six teams qualified for the playoffs, so the Packers faced third seed Philadelphia Eagles in the wild card, first seed Atlanta Falcons in the divisional round, and then the second seed Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship Game.

The NFCCG would probably be against the winner of the game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Dallas Cowboys.

Scenario as the sixth seed

An easier, yet improbable scenario, happens if the Packers win out, the Commanders lose one game and the Giants lose both. In that case, Green Bay would be the sixth seed, increasing the chances of playing the Minnesota Vikings in the wild card round. In the divisional round, they would probably still face the Eagles — unless the seventh seed, potentially the Seattle Seahawks, beat the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara. The NFCCG would most certainly be against the 49ers or the Dallas Cowboys.

Nonetheless, even with such a difficult picture designed, the Packers making the playoffs in a transitional offensive season would already be a huge win for the franchise, especially considering how far the Packers were from contention one month ago. And if they are in, there will be no reason not to dream and enjoy the party.

Photo: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

-----------------------------

Wendell Ferreira covers the Green Bay Packers for Zone Coverage and Cheesehead TV. He is a Brazilian journalist with over a decade of experience covering the NFL, soccer, NBA, and MMA. Follow him on twitter at @wendellfp  

__________________________

PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.

__________________________

NFL Categories: 
3 points
 

Comments (49)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
ricky's picture

December 26, 2022 at 10:47 am

As Ric Flair used to say, "To be the man, you have to beat the man." Tough games? Of course. But I said it earlier, and I'll repeat it: this seems to be a repeat of 2010. Regular season records don't mean a thing, except where you'll be seeded in the playoffs. And, as the Giants proved twice, all you need to do is become the "hot team" at the right time, and you can win the SB. Right now, the Packers are hot. They still have a long way to go, but this is a team that won't be taking anyone lightly, or looking at their record and feeling they have already accomplished enough. This is a team that knows they have underperformed, and are now playing their best ball of the year. And, to close, there is that quote from Kevin Greene to Clay Matthews the last time the team made the SB: "It is time."

-4 points
1
5
13TimeChamps's picture

December 26, 2022 at 02:54 pm

A. 2022 Rodgers is not 2010 Rodgers. Not even close.
B. 2022 receiving group pales in comparison to 2010 receiving group.
C. 2022 defense does not remind anyone of 2010 defense.

But hey...it's nice to dream.

6 points
8
2
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

December 26, 2022 at 06:33 pm

"This team is hot" is quite a stretch. They've been playing mediocre football at best. They could play the 49ers or Eagles 100 times and not win a single game.

1 points
2
1
ricky's picture

December 27, 2022 at 02:52 pm

Or, like the Giants, they could face an unbeaten New England team, and win the whole thing. I'll freely admit that it took luck, and two lifetime achievement plays (Eli escapes the pass rush, and David Tyree traps the ball against his helmet) to accomplish their goal. Will it happen? Probably not. But it's either give up completely, or hope for a miracle or two. Because if you don't have hope, you have despair. And I always hope for the best.

0 points
0
0
PhantomII's picture

December 26, 2022 at 12:06 pm

GB can only control what they can at this point. We have played the Cowboys and Eagles and Vikings. SF seems to always be our Achilles. They are without Deebo now who was the player who beat us last year along with ourselves. ML needs to involve the rookie WR more and they will need to grow more ... and faster if we are to do anything in the post season. AR will need to spread it around even more and always just move the chains. This is where Gute, not putting picks on the table at the trade deadline really comes back to haunt us. Our offense would have a couple mature receiving weapons along with a couple Rooks...That would be pretty hard to stop.
But no...Draft picks cary something special...EGO...if you yourself pick a good player you are lacking, of course a season or 2 too late to make a difference...NOW. Timing is everything and I'm sure we missed our opportunity, but I will hope for the best.

0 points
4
4
Nate-1980's picture

December 28, 2022 at 05:29 pm

I agree, finally another person that sees that Gute has put us here, we don’t have weapons because he thought the draft would provide enough..

-1 points
0
1
Leatherhead's picture

December 26, 2022 at 01:17 pm

Now there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run, there's still time to change the road you're on.

You can win the division, which guarantees you a playoff game at home.

You can hope to have a better record that most of the other 11 teams. The bottom 9 in each conference stay home, where they belong.

1 points
5
4
jannes bjornson's picture

December 26, 2022 at 02:06 pm

The Vikings have Clinched the Division, so now it is the path less taken and win out for a Wild Card spot, or else it's the Wild Turkey vacation.

3 points
3
0
Leatherhead's picture

December 26, 2022 at 06:13 pm

No fans of Led here?

6 points
6
0
LeotisHarris's picture

December 26, 2022 at 06:21 pm

There's a bustle in my hedgerow.

4 points
4
0
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

December 26, 2022 at 06:36 pm

Dont be alarmed man
Its just a spring clean for the may queen

1 points
1
0
friedt's picture

December 27, 2022 at 04:15 am

.......can you hear the wind blow? And did you know. Your stairway lies on the whispering wind?
The Pack are climbing the stairs.

1 points
1
0
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

December 26, 2022 at 06:37 pm

The piper's calling you to join him

0 points
0
0
LambeauPlain's picture

December 26, 2022 at 02:00 pm

If Barry plays Jefferson the way he did in game 1, this could be a sour ringing in the New Year.

Even when Jefferson is covered in man to man, his ability to get open is unbelievable. Cousins is having a good year, mostly because he just plays catch with Jefferson. Cousins has a good enough arm to hit the open man and Jefferson is perfect for a non elite QB.

Please weld Alexander to Jefferson. Great matchup!

4 points
4
0
jannes bjornson's picture

December 26, 2022 at 02:09 pm

Cousins must be kept under constant pressure. Barry cannot set a static line and expect to control the Three WRs and Hockenson. If Nixon is gone from the dime spot, this game, there will be mismatches with Theilen and Osborne.

7 points
7
0
Packers1985's picture

December 26, 2022 at 02:50 pm

Yes they have too many weapons like you mentioned he should be kept under constant pressure.

4 points
4
0
Fubared's picture

December 26, 2022 at 07:49 pm

The vikes have two other receivers lighting it up plus two very talented tight ends. They should have a big day against our pos pass d. I see the season dying on Sunday.

-3 points
0
3
LLCHESTY's picture

December 27, 2022 at 05:49 am

Well you're a Vikings fan, you would see that.

2 points
2
0
Nate-1980's picture

December 28, 2022 at 05:35 pm

I used to think Alexander could shut down any receiver, but this year he hasn’t, I think Jefferson goes off no matter what, I’d like to be surprised and wrong..

-1 points
0
1
Philarod's picture

December 26, 2022 at 02:37 pm

If we scrape in at 9-8 (which of course, I'm hoping for) it should be tough.
At least, we have a shot at the playoffs still, and I hope I can still say that after the Vikings game.
Thing is, can the Browns beat the Commanders? We may need that to happen.

3 points
3
0
Packers1985's picture

December 26, 2022 at 03:00 pm

First we need to win out against the two very good teams one being our division winners the other a very resurgent team the lions.

Coming to commanders there is glimmer of hope against the browns as they sat Hienickie for Wentz. So there is a slight chance that browns can help us a bit and the following they have to face Cowboys though it is of no use for cowboys still it'll be a tough match to win for the commanders against the Cowboys.

3 points
3
0
murf7777's picture

December 26, 2022 at 03:40 pm

“First we need to win out against the two very good teams one being our division winners the other a very resurgent team the lions.“

They are both average teams IMO. Both have very good offenses and terrible defenses. On defense, Minnesota and Detroit give up the most yards in the NFL. And taking points allowed into consideration, Minnesota is 28th and Detroit is last.

I would say they are both very winnable games and Packers will be favored in both to win. Now, will they do anything in the playoffs if they get there? Probably not, but it would be fun to see them try.

3 points
3
0
Leatherhead's picture

December 26, 2022 at 05:25 pm

Having the opportunity to end the Minnesota season in the first round of the playoffs is about as much as you dare to hope for.

Everybody's mostly average. 20 teams are average. Five or six are better, five or six are worse. I, too, think that we're at home and could win both these games. That would certainly create a different offseason here than a loss would.

2 points
3
1
jannes bjornson's picture

December 26, 2022 at 05:50 pm

Is this team mentally tough enough to show up for 60 minutes?

4 points
4
0
BirdDogUni's picture

December 27, 2022 at 11:56 am

If they aren't, it's on the HC...

Just saying.

2 points
2
0
Ikrispy's picture

December 26, 2022 at 03:00 pm

I’m a packer fan living in SF. The niners have GB’s number. It’s still waaaay optimistic to think the road goes there, but if it does, it stops there.

-1 points
2
3
Packers1985's picture

December 26, 2022 at 03:04 pm

Agreed there are still alot of if's but i doubt we'll be able to beat the 49ers looking at how unstoppable they looked the last 8 games. They peaked at the right time the only disadvantage i see in the Team in the qb experience other than that they look to be SB bound team.

-3 points
0
3
barutanseijin's picture

December 26, 2022 at 04:59 pm

I imagine Brock Purdy doing a Wily Coyote: looking down, realizing he’s airborne and plummeting like a rock. Still, therest of the team is still pretty good.

0 points
1
1
Packers1985's picture

December 26, 2022 at 03:02 pm

BTW this is out of topic but looks like Hackett has been fired by the Broncos. How many of you would be ok with the idea us brining him back as the offensive coordinator and moving stevanich back to Oline coordinator?

-2 points
2
4
barutanseijin's picture

December 26, 2022 at 05:01 pm

I doubt Stenovich would want to stay and be demoted.

5 points
5
0
dobber's picture

December 26, 2022 at 07:21 pm

No interest in having Hackett back.

4 points
6
2
TarynsEyes's picture

December 26, 2022 at 03:39 pm

I mentioned in another article a before the Miami game that either path for the Packers led to a failure, with both hurting the future, in ways argued ad nauseam already.

Winning any games erases the better draft selection, and getting in the playoffs will not lead to an SB, which is a failure for on top of the loss draft position.

Can this team achieve the near impossible again, sure, if the true top 6–8 teams beat each other and then fall down on the field, but that isn't happening.

This Packer team isn't the Fool's Gold it looked to be a few weeks ago, but it is still a folly to think there is a victory within the two paths mentioned first. One is already evaporating, and the other will remain so far, even the validity of the dream will be questioned.

Some will defend the playoff spot as a success, it isn't, but rather a delay in the dealings that need to have taken place, with the last games being the platform to conduct and evaluate what comes next.

With every win that comes, I will smile with pain that the FO again didn't see the better path.

2 points
8
6
murf7777's picture

December 26, 2022 at 04:28 pm

So your saying the FO should tell MLF to tank? That’s a losers attitude and one I’m happy the team I root for isn’t doing. Trying to win any game is important to building strong culture.

2 points
6
4
TarynsEyes's picture

December 26, 2022 at 05:58 pm

Playing as many young guys as possible in a season that ends with nothing is valuable to young players and the coaching staff. It isn't tanking, unless you see it that way. I see it as a vital path for the future that might field a better team. If losing a little pride means enhancing, I'm 'all-in'. One can gain/learn so much from losing, and the young guys will grow via loss. Who knows, maybe they don't lose, and it's now a win-win. Can't be afraid to get punched.

4 points
7
3
croatpackfan's picture

December 26, 2022 at 11:27 pm

No. No one should tank the games/season. But, no matter how much we hope, there is the truth that this Packers team play hot and cold. You can not predict that Packers will be hot all the way from now.

And, while there is some similarity with 2010 season, you forget one big question/problem Packers has. In 2010 Packers had clear FO structure with GM, HC and other coaches that were capable of preparing team to do their jobs!

Second. ACR was coachable at that moment and play as the part of the team, not as "leader" above everybody else. And his physical traits were at top. What was and is important.

If Packers miss playoffs or be kicked out of competition in wild card game, I hope there will be big turmoil in organisational structure of FO and we will get true GM, better HC and quality coaching stuff. Because we witness that present coaching stuff are unable to solve problems (as very eloquently stated by MLF: "I do not know what to do and what is the cause of problems!".

1 points
1
0
murf7777's picture

December 27, 2022 at 07:51 am

And in 2010, the Packers had a top 5 defense, which goes a long way in the playoffs.

3 points
3
0
Rarescope's picture

December 27, 2022 at 08:50 am

“ getting in the playoffs will not lead to an SB, which is a failure”

My offer to notify you when the Packers are hoisting the Lombardi trophy to save you the drudgery of actually watching the games still stands.

-3 points
0
3
Leatherhead's picture

December 26, 2022 at 04:49 pm

When I was a young boy, an old man asked me "If you saw a Lion, a Bear, and a Viking
all coming at you, and you only had two shotgun shells, what do you do?" It wasn't until I was older that I realized the answer was shoot the Viking and the Bear and the Lion would leave. Or better yet, shoot the Bear twice, club the Viking with the gun, and the Lion would leave.

Do you realize, for all the drama, and the apocalyptic statements regarding competence and malfeasance, that we have a chance to beat the Vikings and make the playoffs, and beat them again? In the process, we can ruin the Lions' season and send a message to the Vikings that We'll Be Back. What a beautiful world. And all we have to do is club the Vikings into submission in six days.

The Viking defense is no better than Miami's. If we can hang onto the rock, move the clock, and put 26 points on the board, we're going to beat these guys like a rented mule.

To all the people who were willing to throw this opportunity away weeks ago when we were 4-8.........see what you would have missed? The Packers have rallied, it's all on the line, and we just played the best half of football we've played all season. After the season, we can talk about after the season stuff, but I'm really enjoying this 3 game, do-or-die win streak, and it does remind me of 2016.

1 points
5
4
barutanseijin's picture

December 26, 2022 at 04:55 pm

Whatever. I’m not on the team. My attitude towards the game does not affect its outcome.

-2 points
2
4
HarryHodag's picture

December 27, 2022 at 08:49 am

Good perspective. Having a shot at the playoffs is better than wondering what about Jordan Love?

It was revealed to me the opposite side of the argument which I will illucidate below.

1 points
1
0
PhantomII's picture

December 27, 2022 at 08:30 pm

The key to beating the Vikings is to put a lot of pressure on the QB every play...That's what the defensive game plan has to be and it needs to come from DL/ OLB/S and CB's at different times. If we do that we win.Unless they run the ball all over us instead. LOL

0 points
0
0
13TimeChamps's picture

December 26, 2022 at 05:18 pm

Perspective.

With the highest paid player in NFL history on the roster, we beat a horrible Bears team at home, a horrible, injury riddled Rams team at home, and a Dolphins team in the midst of a 4 game free fall losing streak to climb out of a 4-8 hole.

I wish I could get on board with the excitement of possibly securing the 7th seed in the playoffs, which until last year didn't even exist, until the latest money grab from the NFL.

Yippee!

-4 points
5
9
jannes bjornson's picture

December 26, 2022 at 05:58 pm

It ain't over, 'til it's over. Just get to the dance. The rookies are now veterans. Lowry hopefully is shelved. Doubs has to pick up his game. Keep Barry away from the defense and score points.

3 points
4
1
13TimeChamps's picture

December 26, 2022 at 06:12 pm

Clichés are fun, I get it.

Just curious...how would you propose keeping the DC "away from the defense"?

0 points
2
2
LeotisHarris's picture

December 26, 2022 at 06:24 pm

Box and One? Half-Court Trap? Steal his swipe card?

1 points
2
1
13TimeChamps's picture

December 26, 2022 at 06:30 pm

Turn off his headset?

3 points
3
0
LLCHESTY's picture

December 27, 2022 at 05:56 am

LOL picturing Barry unable to get in the building. "Just hang tight Joe, we'll send someone down to open the door for you. After practice."

2 points
3
1
jannes bjornson's picture

December 27, 2022 at 08:59 am

Covid Quarantine. Just like last season.

2 points
2
0
HarryHodag's picture

December 27, 2022 at 08:54 am

While all the national sports media dopes have been slathering on about how the Packers can MAKE the playoffs, someone pointed out the other side of their chances. That side of the argument is brutally simple.

This Sunday, if the Vikings beat the Packers and the Lions beat the Bears the Packers chances are finished. El finito, done-ski.

While I will remain an optimist those two game finals are VERY possible, as well. But again, we'll see with "Any Given Sunday".

0 points
0
0