The Sunday Morning Packers Gameday Preview
Good Morning Packer Nation!!! Welcome to The Sunday Morning Packers Gameday Preview! This week, the Green Bay Packers are playing their regular season home finale on Sunday Night Football against one of the premier running backs in the NFL, Derrick Henry. It is not a secret that the key to this game will be whether the Packers defense can keep Henry at bay.
Will the Packers defense rise to the occasion and have their best performance of the season on Sunday Night Football? Will Derick Henry gash the Packers run defense and have a record setting day? Will Aaron Rodgers have an MVP performance and pull one out of the fire late? I will have the answers to these questions and more in this week’s edition of the Sunday Morning Packers Gameday Preview.
I am happy to have you with me here today for all things Packers; so just sit back and relax with your morning cup of Joe or drink of choice.
What to Expect Against the Titans in Week 16?
The Packers and Titans have many similarities. They both want to establish the running game so they can use play action game to make big chunk plays. The Titans however, are more reliant on the run and safe routes simply because they have an all-world back. Derrick Henry is one of those players that can’t really be stopped even when opponents know he is going to get the rock. Look for the Titans to use extra doses of Henry to expose the Packers weak run defense and then, use the play action game to get Tannehill’s trio of favorite contributors involved (A.J Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith). I see Henry rushing for 150+ yards and Tannehill working against a defense that eventually will be selling out to stop the run which will give him easier passing lanes to find A.J Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith for big plays.
The Packers success will come from establishing quick screen and safe routes early to move the ball down the field. The key for the Packers to be able to withstand the immovable force that is Derrick Henry, will be to contain him to 150 yards or fewer on 30+ carries. Make him earn his yards through volume caries and don’t let him get break away runs. Look for plenty of 12 to 17 early, then, look for the Packers to open up the running game and use that to take play action shots in the second half. I see a lot of scoring in this one; it should be a really entertaining game at Lambeau for the Packers regular season home finale.
Three Burning Questions That Will Determine the Outcome of Tonight’s Game:
- Can the Packers hold Derrick Henry under 150 rushing yards and a touchdown?
- Can the Packers make Henry gain his yards through volume carries (30+ carries)?
- Can the Packers offense give us a few 7-minute scoring drives?
Sunday Afternoon Fantasy Football Picks (Always Start the Plug and Play Guys)
- Robert Tonyan- I think Tonyan stays hot and continues to get targets from Rodgers because the Titans are going to have to devote their focus to stopping Davante Adams and Aaron Jones. We know Aaron Rodgers will not force the ball which means Tonyan should see some targets on check downs, third downs, and RedZone situations. I think Big Bob will have yet another 5+ catch, 50+ yard, touchdown performance.
- Jonnu Smith- Smith is one of Tannehill’s most reliable third down and red zone targets especially off of play-action. Look for 5+ catches and a touchdown off of play action for Jonnu Smith).
- Allen Lazard- Look for Lazard to be featured prominently in the Packers offense after having a bit of a disappearing act during the last few weeks. Like I said before, I expect the Titans to try and throw the kitchen sink at Davante Adams and Aaron Jones (which will limit Aaron Rodgers options making for more of a struggle on offense) so I am expecting Rodgers to try and establish his secondary receivers early to keep Tennessee honest. Expect a 5+ catch, 85 + yard, touchdown performance from the Lizard.
Picks, Parlays, and Game Props
- Viable Anytime TD Scorer Options: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Derrick Henry, A.J Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Bob Tonyan, and Aaron Jones.
- Anytime TD Scorer Parlay: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, and Jonnu Smith (+1432)
- Two Touchdown Scorer: Derrick Henry (+260)
- Game Parlay: Titans +5.5 and over 63.5 points (+460)
- Game Pick: I think the Packers defense will have trouble stopping Derick Henry which will weaken the unit as a whole. Look for him to run all over the defense for 150+ yards and 2 touchdowns. The Packers will be able to put up enough points, but the defense will not be able to contain Henry, Tannehill and the rest of the Titans offense during crunch time. Look for the Titans to spoil the Packers regular season finale at Lambeau by a score of 35-31.
Packer Fans, I want to hear from you! Let me know your thoughts on tonight’s game against the Titans. How do you see it playing out? Did you hit on any fantasy or game/parlay picks from the last few weeks? What are your picks for this week?
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David Michalski is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @kilbas27dave
Comments (13)
Thegreatreynoldo
December 27, 2020 at 07:14 am
1. I think GB will take a ton of deep shots, not screens, or quick hitting routes except on crossers to take advantage of mediocre ILBs.
2. No Jamaal so GB will use Jones a lot and rely on the OL to give AR time for long developing routes.
3. When the choices are Dillon or Dexter Williams, that means GB will be forced to play Dillon 20 snaps. Hope he doesn't get AR killed while he is showing us what he has.
A. I got nothing on how to defend the Titans. Hope Barnes and Martin have their breakout games (even if the stats don't suggest it since Henry is a load).
Dragon5
December 27, 2020 at 08:01 am
1-3in snow with 14mph N wind...the over in this game may be OVERestimated. Hope field crew is able to keep field conditions dry or the intermediate and long passing games are going to be scraped in favor of short+YAC. Dilly in the chilly time.
PeteK
December 27, 2020 at 09:53 am
14 MPH winds not a big hinderance for Packer players.
ricky
December 27, 2020 at 08:34 am
If things break right this afternoon, the Packers will have a chance to clinch home field and a bye by beating the Titans. And that is what is scary. This is a team that doesn't play well when ahead; give them a big lead at half time, and they tend to become sloppy and ineffective on offense, keeping the defense on the field far too much. The team seems to thrive on adversity, not prosperity.
Guam
December 27, 2020 at 08:40 am
I think the weather will have a major impact on this game. The snow and wind will slow both passing games and a cold, wet ball will produce turnovers in the running game. I think the Packers are more used to this weather than the Titans and will have an advantage in the turnover department. The Packers win a lower scoring game than expected by a Crosby field goal. Go Pack Go!
PeteK
December 27, 2020 at 10:05 am
Defense has been playing with more resolve lately and will be even more aggressive to the ball. Interested in seeing Dillon plow somebody over. Spark up those heat coils and let's get ready for a typical muddy and cold throw back to the black and blue.
10ve 💚
December 27, 2020 at 10:21 am
Someone hypnotize Dillon out of his genial-giant mode. Show him clips of Henry stiff-arming. Then turn him loose (but with stiff arm) on the Tennessee defenders. Let him plough through them, even more than Henry ploughs through opposing defenses.
Well, I can dream, can't I? :)
murf7777
December 27, 2020 at 10:27 am
Forget 30, If Henry gets 25+ carries the Packers will probably lose. One major thing we have in our favor thou is Crosby, the man is clutch and knows how to kick at the frozen Tundra!
Two X-factors:
1. Win the turnover battle
2. Special Teams must have a good game
GPG and LA Rams
jlc1
December 27, 2020 at 11:02 am
By ST having a good game I think we can agree that means that when they fail they don't give up a TD on coverage and don't turn the ball over on returns. They did do ok last week so maybe they can go one more week as a professional caliber ST unit.
PatrickGB
December 27, 2020 at 11:00 am
I am probably the only one who thinks so but I see the weather conditions to be unfavorable to the Packers. We are (in my opinion) better suited to a fast track because of our timing on the passing game. Why would conditions that slow the game down be seen as favorable to us?
The league has seen how to slow Rodgers after both the Bucs and Panthers games. And every team has seen how RB’s can have their way against us. My heart says we win but my head says that we don’t. But wouldn’t it be cool if it was our special teams is what won the day for us?
Kb999
December 27, 2020 at 11:28 am
Look for a typical Packer game where they go into the locker room leading at halftime only to have Derrick Henry destroy the defense in the 4th quarter. Packers crap the bed 41 - 24.
flackcatcher
December 27, 2020 at 12:36 pm
I am not worried about Henry at all. He is a monster back who will get his 20+ carries. Only question is will the Packer defensive front 7 be able to contain him. Much will depend on the Packer's offense being able to eat up clock and keep the Titans' offense off ball. (I see a lot of mesh tonight) Dillion may get his 10 carries tonight, but this is Aaron Rodgers against an average to weak Titans defensive front 7. How many RPOs will MLF call tonight. (I see snowmen in the Titans endzone tonight) Would not be at all surprised if Aaron Jones has 20+ carries for this offense. For all the talk the Titans are very one dimensional. Take Henry away, and their passing attack is below average. While the Titans secondary has good stats, the eye test tells a completely different story. They have real problems maintaining contact in route coverage. With this big fast physical WR group the Packers have, it could be a very long night for the Titans. Titans need this game for a playoff spot. Packers want the no.1 seed and home field in the NFC. It's playoff football tonight. Packers win. (X-factor. Special Teams. UGH...)
Swisch
December 27, 2020 at 05:21 pm
Although I agree with PatrickGB that wintry weather is not good for the Packers because it hinders our offense. I'm picking the Packer to win. I don't care about the score.
What I really hope is that we emphasize plugging the middle in a variety of ways to take away the running of Henry -- including run blitzes -- and let our secondary show its stuff by taking care of pass coverage.
This is a great opportunity for Mike Pettine as our defensive coordinator to turn things around with creative coaching and meaningful motivation, and I say Henry has less than 150 yards.
Other predictions:
(1) We'll get at least one touchdown from our speedsters MVS/Austin.
(2) Dillon will have at least one Derrick-Henry moment of plowing over tacklers, and gain at least 50 yards.
(3) Summers will have at least one big play on special teams.
This game is such a treat, especially if the Packers come out with determination and play it all the way through.