Time to get Reacquainted with NFL Draft Trade Value Chart
Given that the Packers have 11 draft picks along Gutekunst's history of trading up, it's time to get reacquainted with the NFL trade value chart.
By Paul_Bretl
With the 2022 NFL Draft about a month away now, it's as good of a time as any to get reacquainted with the trade value chart--especially since under GM Brian Gutekunst, the Green Bay Packers do like to move up in the first few rounds.
In three of Gutekunst's four drafts as GM, he has traded up in the first round, while in all four drafts, he has traded up within the first three rounds.
After moving back initially in 2018, Gutey would then trade up in Round 1 for Jaire Alexander. A short while later, he would again move up in Round 3 for Oren Burks.
In 2019, Gutekunst traded up for Darnell Savage. He then, of course, moved up the following year for Jordan Love. And most recently, he traded up in Round 3 to select Amari Rodgers.
Armed with four draft picks in the top-59, five in the top-100, seven in the first four rounds, and 11 picks overall, the Packers are certainly in a position to be aggressive early on in the draft if the right player is available--which as we just highlighted, Gutekunst is very willing to do.
Today there are multiple versions of the trade value chart, but one that has stood the test of time was created by former Dallas Cowboys' coach Jimmy Johnson during his tenure with the team. In short, the chart assigns a quantitative value to each draft pick, allowing each team involved in the trade to make sure that they are getting a fair deal, with both sides wanting to receive as close to equal value as possible.
You can click here to see Pro Football Reference's version of this chart.
Now, let's take a look at the two most recent early-round trades that the Green Bay Packers have made and how it worked out for them from a value standpoint using PFR's chart.
In order to move up for Love in 2020, the Packers traded pick No. 30 (valued at 620) and pick 136 (38) for pick 26 (700). Based on this chart -- and again, depending on where you look, these values can vary -- Green Bay received more value (700) than what they traded away (658).
This past draft, the Packers would make a trade with Tennessee to move up in Round 3 for Amari Rodgers. To get to pick 85 (165), the Packers had to trade away picks 92 (132) and 135 (39), which resulted in them receiving less value (165) than what they gave up (171)--although it was pretty even.
These are just a few examples, but you get the idea. Given Gutekunst's history in the draft, the fact that the Packers have 11 draft picks, along with having a massive need at wide receiver, Green Bay is once again positioned to make a move up the draft board in the early rounds.
So as this year's draft unfolds, whether it be the trade value chart from Pro Football Reference or another one, keep it close by because there's certainly a decent chance that we will need to reference it at some point.
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__________________________
Born and raised in Green Bay, WI and I still call it home. After my family, watching the Packers, sharing my opinions on the team through my writing and interacting with other fans is my greatest passion. You can find me on Twitter at @Paul_Bretl.
Comments (107)
Ferrari-Driver
March 28, 2022 at 11:16 am
"This past draft, the Packers would make a trade with Tennessee to move up in Round 3 for Amari Rodgers. To get to pick 85 (165), the Packers had to trade away picks 92 (132) and 135 (39), which resulted in them receiving less value (165) than what they gave up (171)..."
Although it has only been one year and certainly not a final evaluation, it appears the "less value" the packers received is a somewhat greater "less value". We can hope that year two changes that for Amari Rodgers.
Coldworld
March 28, 2022 at 11:41 am
A miss is never value, no matter how much one pays, but let’s give Rodgers a chance. We have written players off too soon many times.
LambeauPlain
March 28, 2022 at 12:14 pm
Rodgers, Adams, James Jones, Gary, Preston (after 2020 season), Nijman, AJD, Deguara all come to mind as guys who didn't start well but grew well.
greengold
March 28, 2022 at 01:18 pm
Agree, but his current value remains completely unquantifiable, and actually, lesser a year post drafting, as he failed to make any kind of positive impact, at neither WR nor STs.
We’ve got absolute dick under contract.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 03:05 pm
Rodgers also barely got reps at receiver. He gets a bad wrap mostly because of his failure as a returner (something he never did in college.) I fully expect him to make a big jump this year to help lessen the loss of Adams.
CJBauckham
March 28, 2022 at 03:33 pm
He returned punts in college, avg'd around 8 yards a return IIRC. Avg'd 7, 7 and a half for us I think? Minus his fumbles, he was pretty much as advertised in that department
Your point stands, however. Still have yet to see what's there in the wr department. In the words of Leslie Nielsen..
"Good luck, we're all counting on you"
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 07:00 pm
I stand corrected as it appears be did do some punt returning in college (cant remember where, but I had heard he hadnt returned any kicks prior to being drafted). In any case, he only returned 9 punts his senior year so it had been nearly 2 years since he returned punts in bulk and it showed. All that aside, i still have complete confidence in him as a receiver. 12 has no choice but to feature him now.
greengold
March 28, 2022 at 08:29 pm
I totally agree there’s promise there with Amari. Not writing him off, and he got shafted on touches as a rookie. Maybe the staff felt he wasn’t ready. I don’t know. Pretty much spoke on what we have that’s quantifiable as a NFL player, and with Amari, none of us really knows, yet.
Like you, I have a lot of hope for him and like what he had to offer coming in, especially in this system we apparently have… abandoned…??? Jesus Christ.
LLCHESTY
March 29, 2022 at 02:54 am
It might be that they thought he could get some touches as a gadget guy and then found out he's completely unsuitable for that role. Not sure why they thought a guy with very middling returner numbers in college would be better in the pros but there we are.
Could he eventually be a serviceable slot WR? Sure. Would I count on him being that this year? Absolutely not. They're not going to cut him either so I seriously doubt they draft a slot type this year. You can't have 3 of the 6 WRs on your roster be mainly slot guys.
greengold
March 29, 2022 at 06:47 am
Gadget. Swiss Army Knife… where did THAT go in Matt LaFleur’s offense? Out the window when Gutekunst signed the slower, older Cobb.
Rico Gafford??? Maybe that’s in his future here…
On second thought, Aaron Jones should have been a bigger part of Jet concepts. He’s perfect for it. That’s a mystery to me. Thought for sure Amari would be great there too. ???
Bure9620
March 28, 2022 at 01:30 pm
Nope a miss is never value
Ferrari-Driver
March 28, 2022 at 07:13 pm
As I said, it was only one year and we can hope that Amari will take a 2nd year leap. When he was drafted, I had higher 1st year expectations for him and thought that perhaps Cobb was a luxury item with 8 million dollars spent on him that could have been better used on a defensive lineman or linebacker. However, Gute solved the linebacker issue with the late signing of Cambell.
I'm not speaking negatively of Amari Rodgers as an end product. Of course he can blossom; just look at how Devante Adams changed after his initial start with the team.
Bitternotsour
March 28, 2022 at 01:33 pm
that chart is purely subjective, and circumstances dictate how it's used. it's a discussion point and no more. logging in a bunch of subjective numbers in a crap shoot for talent generally does not make or break a franchise (unless you're the vikings trading for herschel walker, or sadly, the packers trading for john hadl).
the front office (since thompson took over) have been pretty adept in the draft.
Minniman
March 28, 2022 at 02:04 pm
Having watched a fair number of Clemson games these last couple of years I am at a loss to see how poorly AmRod played with the Packers than the Tigers.
He's a way better player than his Packers tape. Lets see what unfolds this year.
FWIW - A sleeper mid-round draft flyer for the Packers is his old team mate, Justyn Ross. He had a horror run with injuries these past 2 years, but is a legit red-zone weapon (something that the Packers struggled with these past 3 seasons).
murf7777
March 28, 2022 at 02:12 pm
I agree and Ross has a lot of talent, due to injury history it will be interesting to see if he falls late into round 3. If so, I believe he is worth the gamble. The story is yet to be told on Amrod.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 03:09 pm
I'm all in on the Justyn Ross train. Would love to see Gute snag him in the 3rd round.
LambeauPlain
March 29, 2022 at 09:44 am
Ross's speed, by WR standards today, is sluggish. He ran a 4.87 coming out as a senior in HS and a 4.64 at his pro day. He will be greatly challenged by NFL CBs.
But he makes up for his pedestrian speed with hands of glue (no drops with this kid) and his uncanny ability to fight for and earn contested catches with outstretched arms and excellent hand/eye ball tracking.
He only jumped 32 inches and is not overly athletic. He only did the bench at the combine and did 11 reps. He is not a good blocker.
What scares me is his 2020 congenital fusion spine injury and a bulging disk. Plus, his 2021 season was cut short due to surgery on fractured foot.
Lastly, he is projected as a slot only guy, most sites say he is not a boundary WR. NFL.com has him rated as a backup and/or ST player.
There will be less risky, quality prospects in the 3rd and 4th rounds.
Coldworld
March 28, 2022 at 03:23 pm
I agree with you on AmRod and his tape. I’m pretty baffled by how they handled him to be honest. I’m not all that comfortable with how LaFleur handled younger players on on offense generally, whether Taylor in the playoffs or AmRod and the other younger receivers or Nijman.
CheesedDeadHead
March 28, 2022 at 06:25 pm
There aren't an infinite number or reps or time from the coaches. Being finite and the fact that Rodgers very vocally wanted to bring in Cobb, I have a feeling they basically punted on "developing" Amari last year. I would be surprised they did anything more than give him a playbook and say "learn everything in there". Without any real world experience I'm sure he felt like a deer in the headlights. I watched a lot of tape on him after he was drafted and the player we saw last year was nothing like the player from Clemson. I hope when they informed Aaron that Davante was leaving they got some commitment that he would actually try to work with the rookies. Maybe Clements was hired to kick his ass when he acts like a dick.
LLCHESTY
March 29, 2022 at 03:15 am
According to PFF Gutey is a very average trader of draft picks and only the trade down from the 14th pick in 2018 saves him from being worse.
I can't link the article because I already linked one on this thread(which does a wonderful job keeping the spam out🙄) but the article just came out yesterday on their site and it's free.
TheVOR
March 28, 2022 at 11:24 am
Personally, I hope he stays put and makes all of the first 5 picks without losing any draft value. Make the picks as they fall and we might just have a huge draft and improved team this year.
LambeauPlain
March 28, 2022 at 11:42 am
Agree. This is a great draft for the Packers to stay put and select players rich in positions they need for possible starters or quality depth.
If anything, I would trade down as #28 and get another 2nd and a 3rd. 6 picks in the first two days of the draft adds another high quality prospect. But I am fine if they sit pat with 5 and trust their board.
Johnblood27
March 28, 2022 at 08:08 pm
completely depends on who is available at 28
LambeauPlain
March 28, 2022 at 12:16 pm
Double post.
blondy45
March 28, 2022 at 06:57 pm
I am as always wanting the most draft picks possible every year, more so this year. With last year being a covid year many more college kids stayed another year to get better. There is supposedly more talent in this year's draft class, more quality & depth. The strength of draft positions matches the Packers needs--WR, OT, Edge, S, and DL. I would love Gute to hold tight until pick 22. There are 6 WR's IMO that the Pack would love to add. I do not see all 6 taken before pick 22. Be patient at pick 28, see how Gute's board is falling. If we can trade 28 to get a 2nd, 3rd, & 6th from Baltimore (have 10 picks=1-2-3-3-4-4-4-4-4-6) I would be in favor. If not, pick the best player on Gute's board at 28. The more draft picks the better this year, especially since we have 7 picks in the first 140 presently. With little cap space this year and next, we need cheaper contracts from draft choices. Aaron Rodgers may only be here 1 more year which would give the Pack some cap relief down the road. In Gute I trust.
BirdDogUni
March 28, 2022 at 11:28 am
I wish we could send Leatherhead or Coldworld in the War Room and insist Gutey doesn't trade one pick this year, unless it's down. Over the last two decades the only move up to grab a guy I approved of was CM3. After watching him in the Combine that year (2009) I really wanted TT to draft CM3. That was the first year I watched the entire Combine from start to finish.
We have had several moves up to take guys who ended up total busts. (STOP IT!)
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 12:49 pm
They traded up for Jaire Alexander. I guess hes a bust right? And Love's career is far from over. Same with Amari Rodgers. Put down the haterade.
BirdDogUni
March 28, 2022 at 01:17 pm
I don't hate any of those guys. I hate wasting draft capital. If you go back in the last two decades (I don't have time or I would.) and take all the times we traded up there are some good ones, but many were terrible choices in the end.
Be patient, don't out-think yourself, don't waste picks, and build your roster.
Just FYI - Didn't we trade down and then trade up for Jaire? (That's a bit different to me.)
Hated the Love pick, but I do like Jordan Love. (I just thought the timing of drafting a QB was a bit off for a 1st rounder.)
Amari could easily make a 2nd year jump, because he looked terrible last year, but I didn't like the trade up at the time either. Believe me RTS, I hope Amari Rodgers becomes Randall Cobb Jr.
Bottom line for me, I hate wasting picks. I remember being very pissed when we traded up to get Jason Spriggs. Total bust. (Most of us wanted Jarran Reed or Deion Jones in the 2nd round that year.) Both of those guys went after Spriggs.
I know the draft is a crap shoot, but the only thing worse than wasting draft capital trading up is wasting draft capital to move up and totally miss on that player.
murf7777
March 28, 2022 at 02:15 pm
I agree Bird....I'd like to see Gutey with a bit more patience. Of course, wouldn't it be fun to be the mouse in the corner of the draft room so you could really understand the thinking behind the trade or pick:)
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 03:02 pm
The front office takes the long term approach that we as fans rarely take. It can be beyond frustrating at times, but thats why Gutekunst and co. get paid the big bucks....to be the adult in the room with the 40,000 ft view while we scream at our tvs LOL
Thegreatreynoldo
March 28, 2022 at 08:41 pm
There have been a ton of studies on trading up. Every academic study I ever read suggests that trading up is the wrong move ON AVERAGE.
Massey and Thaler (a couple of Nobel prize winning economists) have perhaps the best rigorous academic study. Quantification and assigning a value to obtaining a true difference maker is difficult, but really only applies to trades in the first and arguably second rounds. Trading up to grab a guy in the fourth so rarely leads to a difference maker that it is simply a de minimis piece of data.
For example, TT traded up for CM3. Big score. He traded up for Neal, Worthy, which didn't work out. He traded back and still got Eddie Lacy. TT traded back from 93 to 109 to select Bakhtiari. TT traded 146 and 173 to move up to 125 to take Jonathan Franklin (might have worked out but for injury). Traded 59 and 123 to move up to 51 for jerel Worthy. Bad. Traded 90 and 163 to move up to 62 to take Casey Hayward - big win. Traded 86 and 122 to move up to 71 for Morgan Burnett. Win. Traded 41, 73 and 83 to move to 26th for CM3 and 162 (Jamon Meredith). Big win. Traded 30 for 36 and 113 (traded) and took Jordy Nelson. Big win on another trade back. Traded 113 and 162 for 102 (LB Jeremy Thompson - I felt to need to put in the LB to jog memories of who the hell Thompson was). Traded 47 and 235 for 63 (Brandon Jackson), 89 (Aaron Rouse), and 191 (Korey Hall). Jets used 47 on ILB David Harris (11 years, 36 sacks, 1,000 tackles) but who knows who TT would have selected. Loss, probably on this one. Traded 112 for 119 (Allen Barbre) and 191 (Desmond Bishop). Trade back win, this time not on the higher pick but on bishop, though Barbre was never great despite lasting in the NFL for a long time. Traded 36 for 52 (Greg Jennings) and 75 (Jason Spitz). Huge win for GB on a trade back. Traded 37 and 139 for 47 (Darren College), 93 (traded), and 148 (Ingle Martin). Traded 93 for 109 (traded) and 183 (Johnny Jolly). Win on a trade back. Traded 109 for 115 (CB Blackmon) and 185 (S Tyrone Culver). Not much there.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w11270
greengold
March 29, 2022 at 12:07 am
Awesome stuff, TGR. Thank you for that history revisited. Wow.
croatpackfan
March 28, 2022 at 01:24 pm
Add Rashan Gary and Savage in the mix, too.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 03:03 pm
They did trade up for Savage but not Gary.
croatpackfan
March 28, 2022 at 03:52 pm
At what pick was Rashan drafted?
Johnblood27
March 29, 2022 at 02:19 pm
#12 overall, from the New Orleans trade I think
corrected: New Orleans pick was later, the 12th overall was the packers pick.
greengold
March 28, 2022 at 01:17 pm
Why?
Personally, I’m hoping they don’t make any trades at all, like I wanted them to not trade last year,..
Forget norms of WR value R1. It’s not like we are looking for players to simply develop. We need a Flanker and a pure Slot/Jet who can start Day 1.
The Packers have been far, far removed from taking the best of the best at WR, but they really ought to dedicate themselves to doing just that, when you look at what we don’t have…
jannesbjornson
March 28, 2022 at 01:34 pm
Gutedkunst has to be very active Day one and Day Two and find Value. He has 2023 picks also at his disposal.
There are no ifs ands, or buts. He has to hit on Two WRs, Edge and an OT to contribute.
greengold
March 28, 2022 at 02:00 pm
Yes. 100%.
There’s a lot already in play to hedge his bets:
1. Jarran Reed is no slouch. An accomplished veteran signing added to our DL with last year’s R5 steal, TJ Slaton, ascending, and looking to improve in his year two.
2. Yosh Nijman was nothing less than phenomenal as a starter last season. He’s a Restricted FA and can be signed anytime. He also, more importantly, has earned Aaron Rodgers’ trust.
3. Preston Smith was extended. Rashan Gary is without a doubt, ascending, and about to enter his prime.
4. Da’Vondre Campbell was re-signed.
5. Rasul Douglas was re-signed.
6. Robert Tonyan was re-signed. Added to Josiah Deguara, that’s two question marks coming off major knee injuries.
Please, Gutekunst, the cupboards are bare at WR, with huge question marks at TE.
Use your 4 top picks on the best pass catchers available at 22, 28, 53 and 59. Use the remainder of your draft in a deep OT and EDGE class, pop a CB, a S, an ILB and whatever you like, sign Yosh, Lazard if you can, extend Jaire, line ‘em up and let’s go!
Hoping this year we can all put our trade value charts away, and just take the best players we can, where we need the help.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 03:14 pm
I highly doubt the front office is as concerned about the receiver position as many fans are. I fully expect them to continue their trend of drafting the best football players available to them and will draft a receiver or two when it makes sense. Simply throwing first round picks at a position doesnt solve anything. They have to fit the valud of the pick. Despite all the hype, there arent any cant miss receivers in the first round. No jamar chase or justin jefferson. They'll get the big guys in the 1st round and draft receivers in rounds 2-5. All will be well.
greengold
March 28, 2022 at 07:24 pm
Hey RTS, I sure hope you know I’m not advocating “simply throwing first round picks at a position,” in what you’ve characterized as a kind of malpractice. I fully understand pick values and board alignments.
I’ve spoken on there not being the normally ELITE WRs as a consensus in this draft, a number of times. At the same time, we’re not really talking about that with the 22 and 28 picks. Nor the 53 and 59…
Nonetheless, we are in fact talking about addressing the team’s #1 need position, and it’s not the traditional depth need, but an altogether different “multiple starters,” need.
I’ve studied drafts for decades and the whole “don’t draft for need,” stuff really is complete garbage. Does anybody think Bill Belichick, whom I hold in very high regard as a no nonsense tactician, (despite some rule breaking conspiracies) on the field of play and in personnel procurement, that he cares if the player he wants, needs and selects is taken 30 slots earlier than prognosticated value? No.
This is more about problem solving.
All of our other needs for realizing the dream of true contention are met at most every position except WR, which is so devoid of quantifiable receiving talent and speed that those dreams are on life support.
I say, we address this patient’s #1 problem, so they can have a more legit shot at realizing the dream.
Doesn’t matter if there’s no consensus stars up top. There is, however, a consensus group comprising the top 5 or 6, or, the Top Ten of this very deep, in some aspects, WR class. Is there not? I mean, there’s a boatload of talent, enough to make it arguably the 3rd deepest position group in this draft.
The run is likely to start around #12-14 or so. Our first pick is 10 selections after that. You want two starters? 6 WRs expected to be taken in R1…
What’s your guess for how many will be taken ahead of us? 5? Are we supposed to just pass if a perfect fit slotted at #34-38 is sitting there?
When is it OK to begin? According to…?
See what I mean? With the goal to win eventually, compete, or to really make this the most potent offense we can make it to get to and win another Super Bowl?
Solve the chief problem now, with nothing but the best medicine available, so the patient and the dream can stay alive.
This is the best way I can put it, really.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 28, 2022 at 09:03 pm
Yup. Also:
1. Need WRs and it a strength of this draft.
2. GB is all-in. Thinking about 2024 is pointless if GB is holding fire sales then.
3. Need a TE probably, but the draft is poor for high end TEs. Mid rounders are not too bad. Don't throw picks at a position of need when the draft has so few even moderate prospects until 3rd to 5th round range since we have holes at WR, and depth issues at ILB, OLB, Safety, OL.
blondy45
March 28, 2022 at 07:22 pm
Greengold you express the same thoughts I have year after year. I like the way you think and more importantly express your views.
greengold
March 28, 2022 at 08:22 pm
That’s very kind of you to say, and, likewise!
I hate to be long winded, but I try to be comprehensive in sharing why I may feel a certain way about a topic I see as being of vital importance to our team. I’d rather my friends here know where I’m coming from & why.
murf7777
March 28, 2022 at 02:19 pm
I like the Edge, WR and OT picks, but I'd add, depending how the draft falls not to get too locked into having to take 2 WR's in the first two rounds. I'd like to see one of the top TE's in the 2nd round. TE is a position of need and doesn't seem very abundant in this draft. One that can burst the seam in the middle of the D.
jannesbjornson
March 28, 2022 at 03:10 pm
The best wides are in those rounds. You May find a TE in round three that can handle the passing game. He has the necessary ingredients to move for impact players. I still like Olave's game as the best wide in the top 32. He moves smoothly like Jennings did, but is faster.
Coldworld
March 28, 2022 at 03:29 pm
There really doesn’t seem to be a great TE prospect to me that is ready to contribute heavily. Some who are ok, but probably not stars and one or two that might be more with work. I’d be comfortable waiting till later from what I see at TE. Not ideal but no point in reaching.
Minniman
March 28, 2022 at 02:11 pm
When Jaire was picked, many here were asking why him and not Josh Jackson.
No disrespect to LH and CW - whose posts and opinions here I quite enjoy - but those 2 in the draft war room would be like having Waldorf and Statler (the old guys from the Muppets) there! :)
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 03:16 pm
I was one of those people that hated the Jaire pick much like I hated releasing Jordy. But then Jaire became a star almost immediately and i stopped doubting Gutey lol
Coldworld
March 28, 2022 at 03:49 pm
I want the best perimeter receiver for this season we can get. I want an Edge who is ready to give us genuine disruption and strong enough to hold an edge.
Then I want 2 more non slot specialist WRS as a minimum before the end of round 3. I would like a DT, ILB, TE and a S, but those take a lesser priority and I don’t see DT or TE value till round 3/4, within our reach. If the option Is available, trade down: do not reach.
This year readiness now is a key determinant. Use the latter part of the draft any of the above not obtained and a CB and to target ST contributors first and for that purpose, before high upside gambles. If we can snag a true punt returner, do so regardless of position as a matter of priority. There is room to accommodate one in every group room.
I don’t care how many former depth players we drop this year, or if we cut a late pick or two. We must ruthlessly improve ST potential whatever that takes. Competition is good and numbers increase the chances of successful finds.
Minniman
March 28, 2022 at 04:38 pm
I totally agree with you re how the best possible draft would pan out for the Packers.
The only wrinkle is that re Edge, non top 15 prospects tend to fall in the bucket of EITHER disruption OR edge setting. Take Z for example, he was a bona fide get after the QB type, but below average at containment. For me, I'd prioritize speed and bend as the missing skillset that the Packers OLB corps needs.
........ I also see Whitney Mercilus being retained, but put on a snap count (for both his longevity over the season and the rookies development)
crayzpackfan
March 28, 2022 at 11:35 am
Value can truly only be measured by how that pick turns out. I mean, was Tony Mandarich really worth 2600 from that chart? I say, for the most part, Gute stands pat with the picks he has. He can get a WR at 22 or 28 and another one at 53 or 59.
Coldworld
March 28, 2022 at 11:47 am
With so few QBs seeming worthy this year, am I alone in thinking this draft maybe one of the most unpredictable first rounds in s long time?
LambeauPlain
March 28, 2022 at 12:06 pm
Looking at how the draft gurus are ranking their "top prospects"...I am struck how many players are rated as a second rounder by one site, and a 5th rounder by another. I will venture the same non consensus of top players on team boards look very different to a greater degree this year.
I agree. This draft is looking like some big name "first rounders" drop to the second or third...and players expected to be day two go on day one. Hold on to your hat!
Yes indeed, weak QB class is one reason for surprises...so is the limited data of on field production from the covid chaos in 2020. So is the depth of talent at WR, OL, DB and the quality at Edge, DL, LB in the top tier.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 12:50 pm
Teams are still going to overdraft the qb position.
murf7777
March 28, 2022 at 01:54 pm
They always do and of course, that's because it is the most important position. I can't think of a more important position in all of team sports.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 02:58 pm
Quarterback is, without question, the most important position in sports. Which makes it that much more important to not get wrong and yet every year teams overdraft lesser qb's hoping they will turn into stars. Not complaining though as it will push better plays down to where our Packers are drafting LOL
Minniman
March 28, 2022 at 02:14 pm
I think that the spate of big name trades bears testament that the teams think this too.
LambeauPlain
March 28, 2022 at 12:08 pm
Hindsight is perfect vision. The draft is always a risk. Everyone in the football universe believed Mandarich was the best "can't miss" prospect in the entire draft.
Then it turns out he stopped taking the juice after college (little testing in that era) and the Packers were left with an imposter.
Then at the other end of the draft you have players like Tom Brady (6th) and DD, Tausher (7th).
croatpackfan
March 28, 2022 at 01:28 pm
And we can add that QB/TE/RB from UA, than Jonny football Manziel, than Mich Trubitsky, than ...
Minniman
March 28, 2022 at 02:23 pm
"Testosterone Tony" aside -
Talent and Team Fit are two completely different things.......... and teams constantly inflate their own ability to re-tool or control a prospect.
In another response on this topic, Croat mentioned Jonny Manziel as a bust - I see him as the wrong player selected by a franchise ill-equipped or too impetuous to hone him. He was 21 when the Brown selected him, and they installed him as QB almost straight away.
MarkinMadison
March 28, 2022 at 11:48 am
The bottom line here is that the Packers realistically have the fire power to move up into the top 10 if they really want to go and get a certain guy. So this is going to be the most interesting first round for the Packers in years because we literally have no clue where they are going to pick. I don't know if they are going to lock in on one guy or not. Maybe there is no one guy they deem worthy this year. But I'm pumped. I'm going to start smoking a brisket at 6 a.m. pumped. Most likely, the Packers end up with a top prospect or two first-rounders. Roll it!
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 12:51 pm
Theyre not going to sacrifice all that draft capital for one player.
MarkinMadison
March 28, 2022 at 09:01 pm
That would be two firsts to move into the top 10. Gutey has moved up before. I don't know if he will or he won't, but he can. That was all that I said.
PhantomII
March 28, 2022 at 12:13 pm
Draft picks are there to get players you want/ need at positions of need now/ future. Now the JA wants to be highest paid CB after missing nearly an entire year on a poorly executed tackle of a big RB......Gute may have to go CB at #22 if he does not get JA a contract better suited to reality of team finances and 1 special year of his performance and a couple good ones. JA was not repeating the 2020 season prior to injury. I think you should always try for BPA then move up and get them if they're filling a need. We don't have many needs but WR is a very big one. I believe instead of 2- WR's in RD-1 Gute goes either DL / OLB, then WR and another in 2nd RD.
jannesbjornson
March 28, 2022 at 12:52 pm
He could draft two CBs in 2023 @ the One and Two spots. No panic over Jaire.
murf7777
March 28, 2022 at 01:58 pm
I think Edge is a big need, yes we have Preston and Gary, but what else? They need to be rotated and if injury, we are in for a problem. Fortunately, there is an abundance of really good Edge rushers in this draft. I'd be surprised if they didn't take one in the first 4 picks.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 10:20 pm
Ojabo tearing his achilles may have been the best thing to ever happen to the Packers. Im all for drafting him in the first if he falls.
Packman60
March 28, 2022 at 07:39 pm
Agree completely. WR with 2 of the 1st 4 picks, Dl or Edge with 2nd 1st rounder and whatever position wasn't selected at 28, pick in the 2nd or TE, S or OT, whatever is the BPA. This draft is projected to be very deep in round 2 and early 3 due to the extra year of eligibility granted due to covid. I'd much rather see Gutey trade down than trade up.
SanLobo
March 28, 2022 at 12:31 pm
Green Bay definitely has the ability to trade up. The question is, does Green have a need to trade up. Probably not. Unless the FO has fixated on a particular prospect based on some bit of info or insight unavailable to us “normals”, this draft has enough depth to meet all our needs with the draft picks we have. Its going to be interesting to watch this play out.
oceanstrength
March 28, 2022 at 12:59 pm
I'm thinking Gutey sticks in round one; gets a great T with 22 Trevor Penning, The best RB in the draft Breese Hall with 28. The speedy Jordy Nelson-like Christian Watson with 53, and the best tight end in the draft by adding pick 92 with pick 59 and moving up for McBride..
All bases covered for AR third straight MVP, and a SB appearance.
BruceC1960
March 28, 2022 at 01:13 pm
I like your Penning pick. Who knows when Jenkins is coming back or if Yosh can be a Right Tackle. At worst, Penning could be a swing tackle this year. He looks like a monster.
oceanstrength
March 28, 2022 at 04:48 pm
Hey, who knows if Bakhtiari is even coming back...god forbid.
murf7777
March 28, 2022 at 02:00 pm
I also like your Penning pick, but a RB in the first round.....no thanks.
oceanstrength
March 28, 2022 at 04:40 pm
Ok, but Hall is not just any running back. He is the best one in the draft class; who can block, catch, and he has both power and home run speed at 3.39.
The Packers were hamstrung when they lost Dillion in the second half of playoff with SF.
He may not even be there at 28.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 10:22 pm
Packers dont use the rbs they currently have nearly enough. Drafting another one, in the first round no less, just to be neglected would be a terrible decision.
LambeauPlain
March 29, 2022 at 10:08 am
3.39 speed would make him faster than "The Flash". He is so fast at 3.39 he could sprint to the sideline between plays and hydrate with Gatorade!
stockholder
March 28, 2022 at 02:02 pm
Christian Watson will be gone by the end of the first rd. This has nothing to do with a draft crush.
jannesbjornson
March 28, 2022 at 03:17 pm
The run will be on wideouts, not QBs in the 2022 draft.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 03:18 pm
Thats fine. Let somebody waste a 1st round pick on Watson. Just pushes another good player down the board.
oceanstrength
March 28, 2022 at 04:32 pm
Of course that is possible, but Watson is the consensus 53 pick among all mocks and big boards.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 07:08 pm
I wouldnt be mad at Penning, but that would basically signal an end of the outside zone scheme. Despite his 40 time, he doesnt have that quick twitch required to reach block the uber athletic edge players in the NFL. Power run game from there on out.
Lphill
March 28, 2022 at 01:04 pm
He will trade picks to bring in a veteran receiver no way we start the season with a rookie receiver at 1 and 2 , unless they free up more money with Alexander’s extension then maybe they can sign someone and not give up any picks.
LLCHESTY
March 28, 2022 at 01:30 pm
Apparently some teams still use the Johnson chart but it's so outdated. This model makes a lot more sense, taking recent trades into account. Either way you pay a premium for going up and add value going down.
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp
blondy45
March 28, 2022 at 07:15 pm
Agreed, that is the chart I have followed for years.
croatpackfan
March 28, 2022 at 01:33 pm
I believe Packers will draft several (10 to 12) players in this year draft. Lets hope they get bingo on at least 3 of them.
stockholder
March 28, 2022 at 01:56 pm
It's going to happen. For a second #2 WR. #28 and #92. are going, going- . Here's your other Trade.= in that 2nd rd. # 53 and #140. =
stockholder
March 28, 2022 at 02:23 pm
This is what he should get if he doesn't move up.
#22 Christian Watson WR ND State
#28. Trey McBride. TE Colorado state
#53. Nicholas Petit Frère OT. OSU
#59. Leo Chanel. ILB. WI
#92. Sky Moore. WR. W. Mich.
#132. Velus Jones. WR. Tenn.
#140. Manny Jones. DE. Colorado State.
#171. Nasir Greer. S. Wake Forrest
#228. Brandon Martin. LB Ball state
#249. Isaih Pacheco. RB Toledo
#258. Percey Butler. S. Louisiana
jannesbjornson
March 28, 2022 at 03:23 pm
James Jones has Skyy moving into round one. I made trades to get four picks in rd two and using the 2023 picks to augment the "All-In Phase Three," which seems to be anathema to most armchair mock drafters living in Titletown, LLC.
stockholder
March 28, 2022 at 05:10 pm
Not at 5' 10.
jannesbjornson
March 28, 2022 at 08:16 pm
Santonio Holmes, A.Brown, Hill, McLaurin the list goes on.
jannesbjornson
March 28, 2022 at 08:21 pm
He was speculating after watching Moore's Combine workout. I watched his games. He's will be a pro. He will go high second, but then again, Andy Reid most likely has him scoped out for some of his haul and could snag him @30.
murf7777
March 28, 2022 at 02:09 pm
I'm just hoping Olave from OSU is there at pick 22 and Gutey takes him. I think he is the most NFL ready to produce out of the gate. He has great foot work, excellent route running and explosive. Does that remind you of anyone?
Just did a 1 round mock with PFN and received Olave at #22 and Devin Lloyd at #28. I'd be a happy camper if that came true.
stockholder
March 28, 2022 at 02:20 pm
Olave does not have an NFL Body. His legs are Toothpicks. He will be dominated by a press corner.
PackEyedOptimist
March 28, 2022 at 02:21 pm
Did a PFF mock simulation just now and traded (Jacksonville and Houston) out of the first round completely. I ALWAYS want to trade down into the second. Got the following:
33 l Chenal LB/ED replaces Zadarious and great on ST
37 G Pickens WR replaces Adams
53 C Muma LB better than Barnes and great on ST
59 C Watson WR better than MVSEQSB and great on ST
65 D Faale T future starting ROT
68 C Strange OL future starting OG
92 N Cross S replaces Sullivan and great on ST
140 Z Tom OT backs up Bakhtiari
171 C Okonkwo TE fast receiving threat and great on ST
228 CJ Verdell RB practice squad RB
249 N Ford C probably second string C
258 M Araiza P powerful leg, maybe starts
croatpackfan
March 28, 2022 at 04:17 pm
Packers already signed punter...
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 07:05 pm
Chenal at #33? Tell me you're from Madison without telling me you're from Madison.
nstewart1
March 28, 2022 at 04:23 pm
I don't think we really need 11 drafted rookies, plus whatever undrafted gems we may unearth; I'd like to keep our premium picks, but am perfectly fine with trading a few of our choices to get difference making players. I hate to join the crowd, but we really do need a premium WR prospect. I have faith in GMBG.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 07:04 pm
Those late round picks are where the special teamers come from. Pack are gonna need them more than ever now with very little salary cap money to spare.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 07:04 pm
Those late round picks are where the special teamers come from. Pack are gonna need them more than ever now with very little salary cap money to spare.
PackfanNY
March 28, 2022 at 06:40 pm
The one thing I’ve learned by watching many pro sports drafts (not just the NFL) is that it is not necessarily WHERE you draft but rather WHO is making the picks. Good organizations, with good General Managers, have a way of finding the players that fit the team and the Organizations they are heading. No one is perfect, but I think the Packers have done a pretty good job over the last 30 years of finding those players. I am happy we have 11 picks, the more swings the better. However, I am happier about who we have making the picks.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 07:03 pm
Going to established winning programs is a Godsend for a rookie player. Imagine being drafted by one of the bottom feeding teams who have new coaches and new schemes every other year. Forces player growth to a screeching hault, and in some cases turns a player into the odd guy out if they dont fit the new scheme. So many great talents wasted on hapless teams with no light at the end of the tunnel. Most people call them busts, but I call them tragedies.
Lphill
March 28, 2022 at 07:05 pm
A trade will be made the Packers won’t have a rookie receiver at number 1 and 2 .
stockholder
March 28, 2022 at 08:53 pm
Love to Seattle is the rumor. Atlanta the other.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 28, 2022 at 10:25 pm
Love isnt going anywhere. I really wish people would let it go.
egbertsouse
March 29, 2022 at 08:56 am
Moving up for Burks, Savage, Amari, and Love? Wow. With a history like that Murphy should order Gute to stand pat. No sense flushing picks down the toilet.
White92
March 29, 2022 at 06:20 pm
Does Gute have enough picks to take a long snapper and a punter? Oh wait he already got the punter.