Trading Rodgers Doesn't Solve The 2024 Cap Issues

Sustained discipline with the wallet is necessary in Green Bay.

The notion that the Packers salary cap situation will be fixed quickly simply by trading Aaron Rodgers is false.  Moreover, too many fans think executing the trade after June 1 so the Packers can split the dead money with $15.8M counting in 2023 and the other $24.5M counting in 2024 fixes the cap issues.  It doesn't: it only allows the Packers to spend money that they can ill afford on free agents in 2023.  From a strictly salary cap perspective, deferring the $24.5M to 2024 makes sense (assuming the salary cap continues to increase as expected).  $24.5M is 10.898% of the 2023 salary cap limit, but it is only 9.570% of the estimated 2024 salary cap of $256M.  The difference is 1.33%, and 1.33% of $256M is $3.4M to the good in 2024.  That will pay for a kicker, punter, or a journeyman who can actually play a position.  Using a little of the $24.5M to acquire an offensive weapon so the Packers can fairly evaluate Jordan Love is a defensible position in a football sense, in my opinion.  

That said, the cap will still be a hindrance for the Packers in 2024, so spending some of that $24.5M should be done in a sparing manner and perhaps only if there are some opportunities too good to pass up.  First, let's look at the 2024 Salary Cap as outlined by Overthecap.  The table below assumes that Rodgers is traded pre-June so all $40.3M of his dead cap is accounted for in 2023.

 

A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE OF THE PACKERS 2024 SALARY CAP
# Description Amount
1 32 players under Contract per Overthecap $242.449M
2 Add 19 more players @ the $795K min to reach 51 $15.105M
3 Add Jordan Love's 5th Year Option $20.272M
4 Delete Aaron Rodgers' Scheduled Cap # -$40.701M
5 Add Rashan Gary's Estimated '24 Cap # $22.225M
6 Add An Offseason workout charge per CBA $902,700
7 Add Nixon dead money due to void year $1.480M
  Subtotal: $261.73M
8 In-Season Piggy Bank $5.00M
9 52nd and 53rd players 2 times $795K $1.59M
10 PS - 16 players x $12.5K/week minimum x 18 weeks $3.60M
11 Estimated PS Elevations in-season to the active roster $600K
12 Cost of Signing 2024 Draft Picks - Estimated Net $6.00M
13 Additional Charges for 2023 draft class in 2024 - Net $7.13M
  Subtotal of Liabilities:  $285.689M
14 Estimated Salary Cap Limit (per OTC) $256.000M
15 Amount over the Cap $29.649M
     
16 UFAs: Nijman, Runyan, Dillon, Nixon, Deguara ?
17 Other UFAs: Savage, O'Donnell, Hollins, Wilson, T Davis ?
18 Obvious Places To Generate Cap Space:  
18a Bakhtiari:  Release saves $21.5M  
18b Aaron Jones: Release saves $4.8M  
18c Gary: Restructure for $10.4M???  
18d Other Max Void Year Restructures   

For brevity's sake, I won't explain every entry.  Line 2 could easily be an additional $2M or $3M.  The Packers will not have 19 players making the minimum.  Ten of them will each make one or two hundred thousand more than the minimum, and a few will make even more.  The Packers normally end up with only two or three players on the roster making the minimum or close to it. 

Line 5 uses an estimate Ken Ingalls put together for Gary's extension, and it seems very solid to me, though one can quibble with it.  If there is a $13M roster bonus in 2024 that can be restructured, Gary would be a prime target for a restructure of that bonus, in whole or in part.  Converting the whole $13M to a signing bonus amortized over 5 years would save $10.4M on the 2024 salary cap.  Gary would be an obvious choice assuming he returns for a good chunk of the 2023 season and plays at his expected level because he would not have been restructured yet.  Restructuring the same player multiple times leads to $40.58M cap numbers for left tackles.  

Line 12 depends on a multitude of factors.  The Packers current draft class for 2023 (without any picks from the Jets) is estimated to cost $3.88M by OTC, which includes compensatory picks in the 5th and 7th rounds.  [If the Packers acquire the 42nd pick from the Jets, that $3.88M figure jumps to about $4.68M for 2023.  Heck, they might get both pick 42 and 43 in the 2023 draft - there is no way to know at present.]  The cost to sign draft picks in general will increase considerably just due to cap inflation in 2024.  As a comparison, the cap number for the 16th pick in the 2022 draft, Jahan Dotson, was $66K more than the cap number for the 16th pick in the 2021 draft.  OTC estimates that the 2023 cap number for the 16th pick will be $223K more than Dotson's cap number. 

Should I assume that the Packers will be roughly .500 in 2023 and will earn the 16th pick, or will they be very bad, earning the 3rd pick, or pretty good, earning pick 26?  For reference, the 3rd pick's cap number is expected to be $6.8M and the 26th pick is estimated at $2.57M.  That is a big swing, and it is exacerbated because the swing would exist in each round of the draft as well.  It is hard to know which numbers to plug in.  I am going to assume that the Packers are just under .500, that they receive a later pick in the second round from the Jets, that they are awarded a 5th, 6th and two 7th round compensatory picks, and guess that the net cost to sign the 2024 draft class will be about $6M. That said, while the Jets probably will have a better record with Rodgers at quarterback, he could get hurt or just decline.  I have no way of knowing whether the pick the Packers receive from the Jets will be a top 5 pick in the first round, a late first or a high third, for example, and it seems possible though unlikely that the Packers will not get a 2024 draft pick from the Jets at all.    

As for line 13, I am indebted to Ken Ingalls for noticing this issue.  Let us assume that the 11 players Packers draft in 2023 (their own picks plus pick 43 from the Jets) will all not just make the team in 2023 but also all of them will remain on the team at least until the 2024 draft.  The second year cap numbers for those eleven 2023 draft picks adds up to $13.899M according to OTC's Draft Resources article.  [I do note that Ken Ingalls got a slightly different number from the OTC article.]  Those 11 players still should offset 11 players making at least the $795K minimum.  $13.899M minus $8.745M (11 times $795K) leaves a balance of $7.13M in extra cap charges.  Ken Ingalls calculated that the Packers would be over the salary cap limit by $28.64M and I came out at $29.65M. 

If you are discouraged about still needing to generate $29.65M number just to play the 2024 season, especially after my Nuts and Bolts article that suggested the Packers needed to generate a little over $30M to comply with the 2023 salary cap, that is understandable.  It generally takes two to three seasons to regain a healthy cap.  The Packers accounted for $16.8M in dead money plus $40.3M for Rodgers, assuming the trade happens, and that is a very good start.

As for the UFAs in 2024, so much depends on not just how Nijman, Runyan, Dillon, Nixon, and Deguara play in 2023 (and thus how much they might cost to re-sign), but also on whether players from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 drafts step up.  Cutting or trading Bakhtiari to get $21.5M in cap space (or extending him) might be necessary, but it makes letting Nijman walk as a free agent after the 2023 season more difficult.  If Runyan has a solid year, he might be in that $7M to $10M AAV area.  I do not see how a team can let 3 of their top 7 OL leave in one offseason.  Cutting Aaron Jones ($17.17M cap # in 2024) and letting Dillon walk would present a similar dilemma.  

True, the Packers could use max void years restructures on 6 or 7 players in 2024 to generate additional cap savings, but the team needs to wean itself off of that particular ploy.  All of those players have already been restructured at least once.  Using some of the $24.5M in deferred dead money to buy some veteran stopgaps to shore up some of the holes in the 2023 roster is a bad idea.  If the team signed a veteran wide receiver, safety and journeyman defensive linemen whose combined cap numbers for 2023 total $10M, then the Packers would not only have to find $39.65M for 2024, they would also have to find the room for whatever the combined total of those players' 2nd year cap numbers as well.       

I might acquiesce to using a couple/several million on an offensive weapon to give Jordan Love a fair opportunity, but the vast majority of that deferred money, if the trade is not executed until June 2, has to be rolled over into 2024.  Some sustained discipline will be necessary.  If the trade happens before June, the issue will not arise.  The Packers' effective cap space for 2023 is still about a negative $3M, pending on an extension for Gary that frees up roughly $3M, so there simply won't be any money to acquire a player, absent some real bad ideas for conjuring up more cap space.

      

 

 

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8 points
 

Comments (108)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Titletown222's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:27 pm

We have 97 mil with the following moves. 1)trade 12 in 2023. 2) cut Bahktiari with post June 1. 3) Cut a Jones post June 1. 4) cut Preston smith post June 1. Plenty to account for draft picks, Gary extension love option. It highlights the need to add quality depth in 2023. We need 3-4 players that can step up in 2024

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:41 pm

So, your answer is to cut our best LT, best RB, and only healthy veteran OLB?

That sounds like a giant cow patty hitting a flat rock to me. Don't suppose you would consider trading Bakh, AJ, and Smith before the trade deadline, instead of outright cutting them?

Granted, I'm not a cap guru like Tgr, but straight out cutting our best assets seems kind of counterproductive to me.

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Guam's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:09 am

If I recall correctly, Bahk's cap hit in 2024 is $40 million. That is untenable even for the best LT in the league. That contract will either be renegotiated or Bahk will be cut (don't think he will be tradable with that contract). Given Bahk's age, I suspect he will not be with the Packers in 2024.

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dobber's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:21 am

Bakh seems to have gotten what he wanted with his restructure, but it's really a one-year deal, yes. I'd argue AJones is in his last year in GB, too.

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Frolio's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:08 am

Bakh may be tradeable with the contract, as the Packers eat the ~$19M dead money hit on it. The team trading for him would have a $21.5M cap hit in 2024, which is not crazy for a high-end LT.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 05, 2023 at 04:47 pm

Guam, exactly why they shouldve cut him this year. Now theyre forced to keep kicking the can down the river cuz they wont be able to afford the dead cap hit by moving on. Same story with Clark and Jones.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 12:16 pm

I agree Bird.

At this point Bahktiari would bring back a 1st round pick easily.
Jones would also be very popular on the trade market-Pack get a 2nd or 3rd back
Preston Smith probably get us a 5th, 6th, or 7th at the worst.

It would be insane just to cut them when those picks coming back would replace them with younger, CHEAPER players.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 05, 2023 at 04:50 pm

Nobodys giving up a 1st rounder for a 31 year whos making that much money and also has a chronic knee problem. Packers would likely have to give up a draft pick just to get a team to take on his salary. Think Rams dumping Goff on the Lions. Thats the only reason the Lions got 2 1st round picks in the deal. Because they took on one of the worst contracts in football.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 05:40 pm

Outside of quarterback, Left Tackle is the most important and highest paid position in the NFL. Teams would be lining up for David. His contract would not be a problem. He has made the All Pro team 5 out of the last 6 years. Do you seriously think we would have to give a team a pick to get them to take Bahk? Wake up.

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Packers2020's picture

April 06, 2023 at 12:02 pm

No way Bak brings a 1st round pick. He is over 30.

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HarryHodag's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:15 am

Careful. Folks don't want bad news. They assume the Packers operate in a vacuum, can spend as much money as they want with no consequences and if it doesn't work, fire everybody.

The fans demanded keeping Rodgers and bring back all his pals. "All in". Well, all in failed and now they team is really in a financial pickle.

It's time to face facts. You can't gain sobriety until you face the problem head on. Most Packers fans won't do that. The Packers won't be able to keep key players like it or not.

Oops, here comes the 'fire everybody' crowd.....

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greengold's picture

April 05, 2023 at 11:16 am

You're right. It's true, Harry. We are now facing the music.

Look at all the contract restructures/extensions completed recently, pushing $$$ further into the future just to clear enough cap room to absorb the AR dead money hit in a draft day trade scenario.

This may, indeed, take us 2-3 years or more to fully recover from, as TGR has mentioned.

No big FA splashes this year or next, which means Gutekunst will have to draft very, very well.

It all reeks of Mark Murphy. This is his baby, not Gutekunst's.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 05, 2023 at 04:56 pm

Not yet GG. We aint seen nothing yet. It gets a lot worse. Just wait till theyre forced to choose between cutting core players in their prime or having to forfeit draft picks cuz they cant get under the cap. Its coming.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:32 pm

Pretty much this year and next. Note for 2024, I suggested just one restructure (Gary) not the 8 restructures GB did last March. And while I suggested trading Bakh and releasing or trading Jones, that was in part not money related so much as age and injury driven.

If GB thinks Bakh's health will allow him to play 4 more years at a high level, they could opt to extend him while securing $15M or so in cap savings for 2024. I think they need to watch him play over part of or all of the 2023 season and either trade him in week 8 at the trade deadline if he looks healthy and isn't missing practice all the time or keep him and decide what to do with him next season. Jones is simply acknowledging that RBs don't last forever.

I think 2025 should look like a reasonably healthy cap situation with a bit of discipline.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 12:17 pm

Not all the fans demanded "all in". And fans didn't make the actual decision either.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 05, 2023 at 04:45 pm

Cutting those guys is no longer feasible since their contracts have all been restructured. That ship has sailed. I agree its what they should have done but its too late.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:32 pm

Great job Tgr!

I think the only way the cap gets better is when people are held accountable. Right now, Murphy doesn't hold Gutey or Ball accountable, in fact, I think he's probably encouraged the spending sprees, because he'll be gone shortly anyway. What happens once Murphy is gone through forced retirement, or will he change those goal posts too?

Whoever is brought in to replace Murphy, will they replace Gutey and Ball? Will it be status quo? So many unanswered questions. If Love balls out next season, will Gutey be King of the Mountain? If Love looks good enough to give a second year, but falls short, will Murphy, Gutey, Ball, Love, MaLF, and company all be out the door?

Who is going to force the current management to be fiscally responsible? (I mean besides the Salary Cap itself.)

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Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2023 at 07:01 am

When Murphy goes, the first question should be whether that sees an immediate return to the Harlen structure to prevent any future President becoming the de fact GM at the same time as controlling the board and restore separation of powers and oversight.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 05, 2023 at 03:11 pm

If Gutey goes with him I think that's the only way to attract a top level GM.

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Turophile's picture

April 06, 2023 at 03:43 am

@BirdDogUni and Coldworld.
There are assumptions here that are pure speculation. You are assuming Murphy is the secret hand behind decisions you don't like, but it might be the influence of Gutekunst, or Ball, or LaFleur that drove the bad contract to Rodgers and the cap hell it created.

It could just possibly even be influence from the board of directors - without an ear inside 1265 we just don't know. Maybe in the coming years we will get a better sense of who was largely responsible, but for now, as I said.............it's just speculation.

Certainly there is blame to be apportioned towards who it was that pushed for the awful situation we are now in, but who should take the bulk of the hit ? I'm not sure and I don't see how you can be.

Also, @ LLCHESTY, you think good GMs grow on trees ? You might do a lot worse. Remember rule 101 for investors, stocks can go up and down.

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stockholder's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:39 pm

The more you know, the more the FO looks like idiots.
I'm just going to wait for the backlash now.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 04, 2023 at 08:25 pm

Idiots who have compiled a 47-19 record.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 04, 2023 at 09:35 pm

They took a shot. I think that made sense. It is time to regroup, reload, perhaps re-think a couple of things, and then move forward.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 12:21 pm

Right Reynoldo. They took a shot, it didn't work and now we start the rebuild and get financially healthy.

But trading Rodgers made so much sense. Look at what we missed out on. WOW!

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Coldworld's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:43 pm

Signing that extension should get Murphy an early retirement. Sad that his self-appointed promotion and gutting of the GM role has led to this.

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Turophile's picture

April 06, 2023 at 03:56 am

I see from the likes you got here this is a very popular sentiment, but is this reality ?

As I stated elsewhere, it is difficult to point to the main cause of this situation. It might be Murphy, but it also might be that he has stayed in the backseat and let the GM drive the Packers car.............or even that LaFleur has Gute's ear and has campaigned strongly to keep Rodgers at all costs.

Everyone takes a bit of blame for allowing this situation to happen, but who was at the wheel of this car ?

PS Many thanks to TGR for the breakdown, he's always on point with the cap situation.

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Coldworld's picture

April 06, 2023 at 08:26 am

“ it is difficult to point to the main cause of this situation. It might be Murphy, but it also might be that he has stayed in the backseat and let the GM drive the Packers car.............or even that LaFleur has Gute's ear and has campaigned strongly to keep Rodgers at all costs.”

It is difficult only because of the structure that Murphy created. As such he bears the responsibility for the result for two reasons: firstly, he facilitated the silos by making the HC and contracts separate from and equal with the GM which allows for competing and perhaps shifting directions.

Secondly, the person in charge bears ultimate responsibility. Under Harlen, for football, that was the GM. Murphy changed that and made himself the ultimate decision maker, saying “In my position as president and CEO, if the organization is not doing well, that's on me."

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Lootstone's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:47 pm

Here's a solution...

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/4/4/23670319/aaron-rodgers-trade...

Bout time the FO saw my posts on CHTV. Just here to help :D

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stockholder's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:54 pm

I hope realize the SF has only 3rd rd comp picks.
100s-

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Lootstone's picture

April 04, 2023 at 08:02 pm

And Trey Lance. Who was worth 3 first rounders at one point.

It's quite perfect to have a trade for two high caliber quarterbacks whose recent stock has tanked.

Still start Love, but we signed two back up plans for Rodgers back when he started. I expect no different for Love. As much as I want to see him succeed. Lance is the perfect plan B for us with a 5th year option still next year. Something I think that translates over in a trade, unless someone can correct me there since I'm not 100% sure on trade contract guidelines.

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Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2023 at 07:13 am

There is that and/or other players. The 49ers have all their picks next year as well. As the draft approaches, the fact is the chance of picks this year recedes unless the Jets step up. I don’t see Rodgers situation fitting a sudden draft day trade. One thing that is a factor is how the 49ers would free cap space and what that would mean for any trade. Lance has a hit of 9.3 million this year from a brief look. Lance would be our Brohm pick up. Seems like a curse …

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:59 am

If SF sent Lance to GB, his cap number for GB would be $3.76M.

SF only has $3M in cap space, per OTC, but they have quite a few places to generate more. They'd have to decide to go more "all-in" with AR's window in mind. Trent Williams is due $19M in cash, Armstead almost $16M, Kittle $11.6M and Bosa $17.8M. Probably not enough to make AR's cap number $59M, but $30M should not be hard. Their 2024 looks good, too, at least until they restructure 2 or 3 of those players to make room for AR.

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Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2023 at 10:29 am

Actually sounds approximately feasible.

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Lootstone's picture

April 05, 2023 at 05:46 pm

I don't know Brohm's history very well, but I doubt he was worth a #3 pick and a giant trade to move up and snag like Lance was. Lance is more of a unicorn right now. He's a boom or bust because he never really got a chance to prove consistency, had a rocky start for his first few games, but I would argue more promise in flashes than Jordan atm. Probably has a better QB rating as well based on a guess. But I don't even feel the need to double check.

That's what I've seen, and maybe the Packers have seen something in Jordan during practice and because of that, I'm rooting for Love. But, Lance is going to be far better than a back-up and I'd put money on it. So much that I would say his trade value, if need be, would be worth way more than what we would have to pay for him. Since Rodgers is only worth so much (since only few teams will take someone who is 40 at QB). For a Lance future trade, he's younger than his former teammate Christian Watson, plenty of teams will throw capital at a chance to acquire that because the goal would be to showcase Lance anew during pre-season, and possibly during the season if needed.

The idea is to trade for an INVESTMENT - which seems to be a course very much needed by the current state of affairs at GB.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:58 pm

Deforest Buckner is the lesson GB should learn. SF had a great DL in part due to his efforts. But they didn't want to pay him huge dollars which would harm their cap so they traded him for a first when he had a year left on his deal even though he was young. I don't remember whom they drafted with that first round pick or if that prospect worked out - it might have been Javon Kinlaw - but they still have a great DL.

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:01 am

The 49ers drafted Javon Kinlaw a DT out of South Carolina with the 14th pick in 2020 after exchanging the 1st rounder they received from the Colts with Tampa Bay.

Kinlaw played ok in 2020 and was injured in 2021 and missed the entire season and injured again in 2022 and missed the entire season.

Buckner was all pro for the Colts in 2020 and 2021 and had another solid season in 2022 and is only 28 years old

To date it seems like the 49ers gave away a All Pro player for nothing.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 07, 2023 at 04:19 am

SF rolled over $1.9M from the 2020 cap into the 2021 cap, and just $1.5M from 2021 into 2022. They didn't have enough cap space to sign Buckner. SF could have kept Buckner for a year and gotten a 3rd round comp pick in 2022, or they could take the 13th pick in the 2020 first round pick.

Kinlaw has been unproductive. SF traded pick 13 to Tampa Bay (who selected Tristan Wirfs, a first team and a second team All-Pro) in return for pick 14 and 117. They took Kinlaw and used 117 to move up from 31st to 25th to take Aiyuk. Aiyuk put up 700, 800 and now 1,000 yard seasons with garbage QBs. But Kinlaw has busted.

Your fixation on Kinlaw is pure hindsight. If you can't pay a player, get a first for him rather than a comp pick.

If the Pack can't pay Nijman in 2024, they should consider trading him.

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 08:42 am

Can we trade Jordan for Lance?

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Leatherhead's picture

April 04, 2023 at 08:02 pm

So, an abstract: The Packers need to reduce their use of max void years, and we don’t have any money to pursue guys. We could let some good players go to save money..

This is Cap Hell? Seems to me more like Cap Constraint.

Totally agree we need to be disciplined financially.

8 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2023 at 07:06 am

As TGR said, we went for it. We can debate how, but we can’t deny that. I think most of us agreed that it made sense to do so given Rodgers age, the then ascending roster. The problem was we didn’t know when to stop and overshot. Now we have to take out medicine.

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Frolio's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:15 am

At least it appears we're taking our medicine. The Saints, on the other hand, appear to have delusions of being contenders, digging their hole deeper each year, acting as if they still have a HOF QB on their roster.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 05, 2023 at 11:51 am

That’s uncharacteristically Zen of you, CW. It’s all water under the bridge at this point. We took a shot, it didn’t work, let’s focus on winning the division.

It is my opinion that if we add a good complementary WR (Tillman), a starter at RT(Harrison), a TE (Kunst)……this offense should have what it needs. If we get the Jets 43, and we traded down our 15 with AZ to get 34, 66, and 96, that
would leave us with 34, 43, 45, 66, 78, and 96.

Since Kunst is a Day 3 guy, we’d still have 4 picks in the Top 100 after we took Tillman and Harrison. We could try to get Adebawore at 34, and a safety at 78. And if Hooker is available at 96, we should go for it.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 05, 2023 at 04:59 pm

But how many years will this team have to pay for those previous years of going for it? They just keep kicking the can and kicking the can. The team is laying on the tracks and I can hear that train a coming.

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:14 am

It is interesting how people on here Parrot what Packer Management feeds them.

The Packers actually have the 4th most cap space in the NFL behind only the Bears, Panthers and Lions.

Google cap space by team 2023 or go to spotrac.com

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dobber's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:23 am

...and most of it is already spoken for between signing and paying draft picks, extensions, in-season roster changes, the last couple players on the 53, and accommodating the additional cap hit for dealing 12.

Plenty of that has been well-documented by many different sources.

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 05:27 pm

Draft choices are already in both sets of numbers - first 51 and all players - and the Packers have the 4th most cap space of all 32 teams in both categories.

Please see below.

It is interesting how people here parrot the propaganda and "talking points" Packer Management feeds to them and read to them.

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

Like a bewildered heard of lemming and an angry mob they drink it down.

How about doing your own independent research and making some comparisons with other teams.

The Packers actually have the 4th most cap space in the NFL,

And that is including the playing $31.6 cap hit of Aaron Rodgers - one year removed from leading all 32 teams' starting QBS in passer rating, a composite of completion %, interception %, touchdowns per pass attempt, and yards per pass attempt, not once but 2 years in a row and one year removed form 2 consecutive MVPs as well!!

And the Packers have the 4th most cap space in the NFL not only in terms of first 51 players, which is all that matters until September 2023:

Bears $38.3
Panthers $27.2
Lions $24.0
Packers $22.6
Texan $22.5
Least Cap Space:
Vikings $1.1

and also 4th most cap space in the NFL in terms of total players:

Bears $27.7 (64 players signed)
Panthers $19.0M (62 players signed)
Rams $13.4M (45 players signed)
Packers $12.6M (65 players signed)
Lions $8.7M (70 players signed)
Least Cap Space
Commanders -17.2 (75 players signed)

Google 2023 salary cap by team.

The Packers are 12 months removed from 13-3, 13-3, and 13-4 seasons.

They are also the 9th youngest team in the entire NFL.

Team age:
Rams 25.91
Titans 26.15
Browns 26.25
Giants 26.24
Colts 26.24
Chiefs 26.24
Bears 26.25
Bengals 26.27
Packers 26.29

Oldest Team:
Patriots 27.59

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

And Packer Management is destroying the team out of ignorance and emotion and their hurt egos because their quarterback is more truthful and intelligent and communicative than they are.

In the 2028 season the Packers then 2 time MVP breaks the all time NFL record for fewest interceptions by a QB attempting 500 passes in a season

The next season the Packers then 2 time MVP once again surpasses all Quarterbacks in NFL history and finishes 2nd - behind his own 2018 record setting performance - for fewest interceptions by a Quarterback attempting 500 or more passes, with 4 interceptions.

And what does GM Brian and President Mark do following Aaron's 2nd record breaking season for protecting the football?

They draft the quarterback that in the season he has just completed led all of college football in interceptions - giving the ball away.

And they trade up in the first round giving up their 30th pick and 136th pick (4th round. Rams tight end Brycen Hopkins) to move to slot 26 to get him!!

1 points
1
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 07, 2023 at 04:22 am

The draft picks are not included by OTC and Spotrac, or the NFLPA. Certainly the PS and 52nd and 53rd contracts aren't either. And keeping a piggy bank isn't included.

You are simply wrong.

0 points
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Dragon5's picture

April 04, 2023 at 08:18 pm

Suggested article title: "Kick the Cap." Our front office has made an annual game of it...side note, I last played kick the can in 1984.

3 points
4
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Leatherhead's picture

April 04, 2023 at 08:24 pm

Well, that’s too long. You should have a Kick The Can party . With beer, of course.

2 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

April 04, 2023 at 09:22 pm

What is ironic is not that long ago the Packers were incredibly frugal with the cap.

I also believe Gutey is not the one printing money...it is Acting GM Murphy.

After the season, Gutey was asked "how are you going to keep all your top players with the cap issues?" He said "I suppose we will just extend some more contracts with void years...it's kind of what we do around here now." I sensed a little disgust with that comment.

6 points
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dobber's picture

April 04, 2023 at 10:33 pm

They're still feeling the hangover of the covid cap contraction in 2021, too. Nobody was planning for or prepared for a cap contraction like that, and it forced the Packers to sprint down this road.

4 points
4
0
Frolio's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:18 am

Yep. Perfect storm, going on a first-in-forever spending spree in free agency in 2019 (the Smiths, Amos, and Turner - all of whom were at minimum good players) and having the pandemic hit a year later when the bigger hits on the contracts were coming due.

-1 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 05, 2023 at 05:01 pm

LP, he made another comment too like right after the season ended. Something to the effect of "this hasnt been the normal operating procedure here in the past." Its almost like hes taken after Rodgers a bit with the passive aggression when he really has something to say.

0 points
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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:16 am

It is interesting how people on here Parrot what Packer Management feeds them.

The Packers actually have the 4th most cap space in the NFL behind only the Bears, Panthers and Lions.

Google cap space by team 2023 or go to spotrac.com

-1 points
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dobber's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:24 am

The posting and reposting and reposting has gotten old.

0 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 04, 2023 at 08:26 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OglVmfwjhB0&t=151s

Anybody else heard the 9'ers are talking to the Packers about AR12?

What happens if 9'ers swoop in and steal AR12?

Holy crap. NY would implode. I mean, NYC, not just the Jets.

1 points
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Oppy's picture

April 05, 2023 at 03:55 am

whatever gets the guy out of town, I don't care who.
It would be great entertainment to see a NY meltdown though.

3 points
5
2
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 05, 2023 at 05:02 pm

We might just have a chance in the playoffs against the 49ers for a change. Just play pass every single play and watch Rodgers implode.

0 points
1
1
stockholder's picture

April 06, 2023 at 07:08 am

I heard a #1 2024 conditional and the 3 -3 rd round comp picks.
Thats better than the Jets offer.
Rodgers would be much happier in SF.
99, Noah Sewell LB O 101, Jaquelin Roy DT LSU 102. Jamie Robinson S FL, ??

1 points
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fthisJack's picture

April 06, 2023 at 08:45 am

If the Jets knew we were in serious talks with SF, that might push them to meet our demands...whatever that is.

0 points
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jurp's picture

April 04, 2023 at 09:10 pm

Thanks TGR. Excellent article as usual.

5 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 04, 2023 at 09:32 pm

So, I just read Cory's article and the comments so I gather my willingness to use the jaws of life on the Packers' wallet to pay for a veteran wide receiver is not going to meet with universal approval. Fair enough. Because by extension acquiring a safety also makes a ton of sense: Chuck Clark a week or two ago and now Ryan Neal is an unrestricted free agent who would not count against the comp pick formula. And or course acquiring a veteran defensive lineman - perhaps a DE - who might run $3.5M to $5M makes a good deal of sense.

But the defensive guys in my view make sense only if one is concerned with winning one or two more games in 2023 rather than taking a longer view. I thought this team had too many holes with AR at QB. I view 2023 as an evaluation year and a year to start to fix the cap, and I am not overly concerned about the win/loss record.

Nor am I hellbent on trading or releasing Bakhtiari. A lot depends on his medicals, to which I am not privy. I do have a theory about perhaps trading him at the trade deadline. GB would get cap savings of about $700K at that time for 2023, and they would still have $19M dead in 2024, but it in practice still works out to $21.5M in cap savings for 2024. If GB thinks Tom, Nijman, Jenkins, Rasheed Walker and Caleb Jones can handle LT and RT (or if they draft a tackle who looks good in TC and shows something in those first 8 games), flipping a healthy Bakh if he is playing at very high level for a future first or even a second rounder should be considered. Nor am I hellbent on dumping Aaron Jones when Dillon also will be a UFA.

The math was stark. GB might need $28M or $29M and Bakh provides cap savings of $21.5 on a release or trade for 2024. Jones is $4.8 IIRC. Gary might be good for $10.4M. Those three provide enough space and would allow GB to retain one or two of their own UFAs. I don't want to restructure Jaire, Preston, Campbell, Douglas, Clark, or Aaron Jones again, but that's where the money is if the team wants to spend money on free agents. Clark, Douglas and Jones have contract that expire after the 2024 season.

7 points
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greengold's picture

April 05, 2023 at 02:55 am

Great share, TGR, and very much appreciated.

For the record, I’m not hell bent on trading David Bakhtiari. I simply put 2 and 2 together when the AR to NYJ trade became a thing, and we know a likelihood exists that Bakhtiari follows him there.

There’s been a lot of that kind of talk.

Please excuse my having made an observation (wink), and know this one hasn’t been readily embraced by many of my friends here since.

Maybe it’s best to look at what we know of AR instead. I don’t want to trade DB, but it’s highly likely that it happens.

What else do we know about AR? That he doesn’t trust rookies? That he likes “his” guys, and makes those kinds of personnel demands?

Lazard is already a Jet.

What else do we know about the Jets? That they don’t really have an OL?

That’s some pretty simple math to envision one or two more OL becomes part of the AR trade package. Runyan & Myers? That math adds up, as dead cap on both players combined is $1.1M.

TGR, I’ve seen your very own comments regarding Runyan & Myers as being less than stellar talents.

“Hell bent?” No. Just a simple observation that makes sense.

Aaron’s going to want his guys up front. No?

The Packers are in a unique position to actually be able to provide 3 OL as part of a larger package, or set of packages. No?

The Packers may benefit from that kind of reset at LT, LG and C. No?

The Jets might benefit greatly by adding 3 veteran OL AR knows & trusts, fully scheme trained. No?

Would AR prefer Bakhtiari (in a separate post June1 deal) protecting his blind side, or a rookie LT with the #13 pick?

Personally, I think the Jets might prefer to unload that #13 pick for the cap savings, bring Bakhtiari in via trade to cover LT, and use those 13 pick monies saved to re-sign Quinnen Williams.

0 points
1
1
Leatherhead's picture

April 05, 2023 at 12:04 pm

I am always overly concerned about the W/L record. That’s the measuring stick for the regular season. Good-Average-Poor.

We need to put ourselves in a better position financially , but we can win games with the guys we have. If we don’t win at least 10 games I’m going to be disappointed.

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

April 05, 2023 at 03:18 pm

Prepare to be disappointed. Maybe if they'd dropped Barry for a better DC I could see 10 wins but he's never finished with a defense in the top half of DVOA and I see no reason that would change.

1 points
1
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Leatherhead's picture

April 05, 2023 at 05:06 pm

DVOA is a good measure of defense, and valid, IMO. So is points.

Defensively last year, we were 20th in DVOA, which puts us on the low end of average. We were 8th in the NFC in Defensive DVOA, and Seattle, Minnesota, and the Giants all finished lower than the Packers, so I'm not sure how that adds up to us not being successful this year. They manhandled the Lions offense twice and the Vikings once, and kept a leash on teams like Buffalo and Miami.

The ranting about Barry is nonsensical, IMO. We were 6th in passing yards surrendered, 5th in interceptions. Only 1 team scored over 28 points on us, half the teams couldn't get past 20. We are an average defense, and a better than average pass defense.

Now, this is when people start talking about run defense.....and then turn around and say it's a passing league. As long as the average run is 5 yards, and the average pass attempt is 7, it just makes more sense to encourage your opponent to run.....especially if they've got a real good passing attack. At some point, people will start to understand this and quit hyperventilating everytime the opponent has a couple of successful run.

Defense in the NFL means pass defense, and we have a pretty good one.

-2 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:12 pm

The pass D doesn't mean much of you can't put offenses in disadvantages as far as down and distance. It's like bringing a knife to a gun fight. Kenny Clark talked about it at length before the season started. Then they went out and shat the bed repeatedly.

1 points
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fthisJack's picture

April 06, 2023 at 08:55 am

Not when Barry has his corners 7 yards off the line on third down. Big mistake to retain him.

1 points
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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:19 am

" And or course acquiring a veteran defensive lineman - perhaps a DE - who might run $3.5M to $5M makes a good deal of sense."

How about Jarran Reed?

Seahawks jumped on him at $3M.

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 07, 2023 at 04:26 am

2 years, $9M, or $4.5M. Reed's first year cap is indeed $3M but he has $1.5M dead if released after one year. So a one year deal ends up at $4.5M. Reed's cap number in year two of his deal is $5.97M.

0 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

April 04, 2023 at 09:57 pm

We're fortunate to have you here, TGR. While all them numb3rz make my brane hirt, it's presented so clearly even I can understand what the Packers are up against.

Which brings me to Russ Ball and all the other "Cap Gurus" around the NFL. It seems SOP is to add void years to contracts, and kick the can down the road. Then it's "Oh, Sweet Baby Jeebus we're in Cap Hell", until we're not. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

After a few gyrations and some posturing, we have calls for fiscal restraint. We have calls for common sense and wacky comparisons to household budgets. We have the Hoarders and the Wasters screaming at each other. And, then it's time, cuz we've been waitin' all day for Sunday night. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was. Same as it. Ever. Was.

5 points
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1
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 04, 2023 at 11:06 pm

For those who are a little disappointed the 2024 cap would look brighter but for having two players with unusually large cap numbers hitting the cap at the same time. Gary's first new year hits in 2024. And his cap number for 2024 need not be $22M as no one would blink an eye at $17M.

The other is obviously Jordan Love having a guaranteed $20.72M cap number. I could have put this in the article, but I tried to only discuss pretty tangible things, not maybes. If Love plays really well in 2023, the Packers might feel comfortable extending Love in 2024 and reducing his cap number from $20M to $12M or $15M. Those two things might allow GB to just keep one of Bakh (with an extension) or Jones, for example.

Not to beat a dead horse, but if AR had been traded to Denver last year and I was looking at the cap for the following year, Love would be $3.9M and Gary would be $10.9, a total of $14.8M instead of the $42.7M they cost in 2024.

Cap-wise, things are looking better.

3 points
3
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Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2023 at 07:21 am

It’s no fun being the voice of reason. It’s very necessary that there be one and that it is heard. Last season’s extension really flipped the balance from rational to irrational risk.

6 points
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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:29 am

What do the Packers do if, on May 1, 2023, per your recommendation, the Packers exercise the 5th year option to pay Jordan $20 million in 2024 and Jordan fails miserably this year, 2023?

The 5th year option is exercised is fully guaranteed isn't it?

0 points
2
2
dobber's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:32 am

He's documented that. Go read the article.

1 points
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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 05:36 pm

Dobber, I did read the article in its entirety. There is not a word in the article about what happens if the Packers on May 1, 2023 exercise Jordan's $20 M option for 2024 and Jordan proves to be a disaster based on his playing in 2023.

The $20M is guaranteed money for 2024 and a $20 cap hit for the Packers and now they have a QB disaster on their roster.

This is why the Giants did not exercise their 5th year option on Daniel Jones last year even though they already had the evidence of 36 more starts than Jordan's 1 start.

So why does Reynoldo have the $20 in 2024's cap number?

I will be SHOCKED SHOCKED SHOCKED if Come the May 1, 2023 deadline the Packers exercise the 5th year option for Jordan.

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 07, 2023 at 05:22 am

I used $20M because I think GB is likely to exercise Love's 5th year option. Of course, they might not. In which case, I would have to plug in a question mark for his cap number in 2024, as it might be zero if he looks terrible or has a devastating injury, and thus it could range from $0 to $40M.

Daniel Jones, after passing ratings of 87, 80, and 84 in his first three seasons, put up a rating of 92.5 in his fourth season, which in today's NFL merited a $40M per year deal, or 4 years, $160M with $80M fully guaranteed, and $112M guaranteed if you count money guaranteed for injury or that later vest into fully guaranteed money. Jones' cap numbers are $21M, $45M, $39.5M and $56.5M. That deal does not appeal to me, and Jones isn't even a one-year wonder, he is a one-year maybe franchise QB someday.

Jimmy Garopollo got $24.25M AAV (3/$73M with $33.7M fully guaranteed). There is no comp for a QB who has one season of full-time starting and is a UFA or Franchise candidate. OTC projects the QB transition tag in 2024 at $33.3M and the non-exclusive franchise tag at $38M. Those numbers don't appeal to me, and since the packer could not really pay that, the threat would lose a lot of vitality.

So, I think it far more likely than not that the Packers will exercise the 5th year option rather than try to compete for Love in 2024 with 31 other teams or try to hold the franchise tag over his head. Obviously, Love's quality of play in 2023 might make the course of action obvious (either very low money or very high), but GB has to decide on the 5th year option prior to having that data. And the quality of his play might make it murkier.

The Packers also might decline to extend Gary. It is within their rights to allow him to play on his fully guaranteed $10.9M 2023 salary and then compete with the other 31 teams while keeping the option of the franchise tag open (but only one Franchise tag per season, so if they want to use it on Love, they can't use it on Gary). OTC projects the tags for Gary at $16.6M and $20.06M as OLBs are LB, not DEs, and there is no Edge category. That is doable for GB.

EDIT: I forgot. Yes, the 5th year option for $20.272M is fully guaranteed if exercised. I put it in because that's what I think GB will do. That amount makes it a significant decision. And the merits are up for debate. I get uneasy making big dollar decisions when there are huge variables out there. This decision has to be made before anyone sees Jordan Love in action over a substantial period of time with a game plan designed for him. But it is a decision that cannot be delayed. I was a trifle uneasy signing Jenkins for $17M AAV, though he seemed to be regaining his healthy and reverting to his normal quality of play. I will be a little uneasy if or when they extend Gary unless they wait until mid-season.

0 points
0
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greengold's picture

April 07, 2023 at 05:45 am

TGR, your work is phenomenal, well reasoned, and very much appreciated. All of it. Thank you.

Does all the trade talk make numbers appear to swirl around your head? I always laugh to myself, thinking, "I wonder what TGR makes of this?"

Do you see GB trading out of some slots to stack capital for next year? Been guessing that would have to be a consideration just for the cap savings alone.

Might play more into a 2 year plan.

--
I'm looking at line 13, wondering what the Packers might look to do? If this trade is big, is trading out of R1 entirely beneficial? Or, maybe a need? There's been a lot of trading down talk, and I was just curious to know what you make of it?

That cost jump in adding just 42 is significant. What if the Packers wind up getting closer to market value for AR, and we land 13, 42 and 43?

Would a David Bakhtiari trade to NYJ on June 2nd alleviate that concern completely, allowing us to pay for such a high number of draft picks?

Agree adding veterans in FA seems to be a bad idea, just from the cost standpoint. We should be planning to run lean & mean to aid our own fiscal recovery. I looked at all those VOID years on our restructures at OTC. Wow.

0 points
0
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 07, 2023 at 07:03 pm

No, I don't think it makes sense to trade down in the first round due to cap concerns in general. The first five picks range from 4 years/$40M to 4 years/$34M. Pick 6 drops to $29.9M (first year $5.4M), and 10th drops to 4/$22M. GB's pick, # 15, is 4/$17.27M per OTC, which is modest. The first year cap number should be roughly $3.14M. All four years of nearly every first round pick is fully guaranteed, however, which ups the ante noticeably.

Cap numbers for 2nd impact the cap (first year 45th pick is $1.5M) but the 3rd and 4th are minimal, and the 5th and later have almost no impact on the cap while teams are under the rule of 51. 6th and 7th round picks won't even count as they will be in the late fifties in terms of value. The 51st player under contract at present has a cap number of $870K.

GB should not forego receiving the 13th pick or any high pick just because the cap is so tight. They do have a couple of things they can still do to generate cap. If nothing else, just guarantee all of those workout bonuses and game active bonuses to a signing bonus: that should generate close to $8M in cap space.

Draft picks are cheap. Do whatever it takes to get them. Fans rightly noted that it was tough for TT to strike gold in the first round because he was always drafting in the 20s, often the late twenties, and they were right. Trading back might be the right thing to do, sometimes, but not because of cap.

A post June trade of Bakh provides $2.2M in extra cap space. That would help. The merits are another matter. I think GB can get a first October at the trade deadline if he looks healthy and plays very well. What can GB get from the Jets on June 2nd? What can they get from any other team? IDK. I imagine every team would want their own doctors to examine him.

1 points
1
0
CheesyTex's picture

April 04, 2023 at 10:42 pm

Before we bash the FO too much, remember that Covid ate a huge chunk of cap for the last couple of years. Tough to plan your way through that. No idea of the actual numbers, but I'd bet that PACK would project under cap if pre-Covid cap projections were in place. Just sayin'.

1 points
3
2
Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2023 at 07:25 am

If we had stuck to what I believe most accept was the plan and parted ways with Rodgers last year, then the cap management would have remained within reasonable bounds, stayed in decent alignment with the roster and we’d be able to be starting recovery. For some reason, I believe Murphy, we threw all of that in the bin. Right now, last season and this off season suggest that that really was an indefensible decision that we will be paying for for a while.

2 points
4
2
StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:33 am

It is interesting how people on here Parrot what Packer Management feeds them.

The Packers actually have the 4th most cap space in the NFL:behind only the Bears, Panthers and Lions.

Google 2023 salary cap by team.

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

The Packers are 12 months removed from 13-3, 13-3, and 13-4 seasons.

And Management is destroying the team out of ignorance and emotion.

-1 points
1
2
EnemyTerritory's picture

April 05, 2023 at 06:42 am

When will they go all in? Why don’t the packers ever go after (expensive) free agents to support the HOFer? /s Fanbase 2015-2021. They did and this is where we are. The teams with lots of cap space have, generally, been bottom feeders for many years…. Houston, Chicago we have a problem.

0 points
1
1
PhantomII's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:04 am

Going all in to me is burning future #1 maybe even a #2 either during the draft or at the trade deadline... Something I have never seen our FO do...Unfortunately.

2 points
2
0
dobber's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:18 am

For a team rebuilding and with cap issues, keeping those picks in 2024 seems to be the more prudent path.

Conventional wisdom is that a future #1 only has #2 value in the current draft. I think you need to be really sure about a guy to make that move and shift high-end draft capital into the current year.

0 points
2
2
PhantomII's picture

April 05, 2023 at 05:38 pm

It has the value of what you want NOW... like everything else in life. There is maybe 1 WR with a first round grade to me and he’s from Ohio State. There are at least 10 WR’s and TE’s in the 2nd. This would be a great year to get either the turnkey slot guy or a double WR and TE group in the Second and even the top RB looks like a perfect eventual replacement for Jones but we would have to take him at 15. I know dime a dozen...blah blah..Really good weapons are not dime a dozen backs. Use Jones and him together. Trade Dillon off to Titans.

1 points
1
0
StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:35 am

It is interesting how people here parrot what Packer Management feeds them.

The Packers actually have the 4th most cap space in the NFL:behind only the Bears, Panthers and Lions.

Google 2023 salary cap by team.

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

The Packers are 12 months removed from 13-3, 13-3, and 13-4 seasons.

And Management is destroying the team out of ignorance and emotion.

-1 points
1
2
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 05, 2023 at 04:37 pm

Which is exactly why they have not had to go into a hard, multi-year rebuild like the other teams who make such horrible decisions. Say Thompson or Gute mortgaged future picks for players like so many fans have demanded. Would that keep these same fans from crucifying them when it doesnt work out? Absolutely not. The fans would still crucify them. Ted Thompson drafted Rodgers and built a super bowl winning team and yet so many fans still trash him even after his death. No matter what, these guys will always be punching bags for overly entitled fans who think they can do it better. By all means, I encourage you to apply for the job. Put your livelihood on the line so you can have every single move analyzed and criticized.

-2 points
0
2
HarryHodag's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:07 am

It's fun for some to grab the credit card and go shopping before Christmas. Spend! Spend! Spend! In January the holiday is gone but the bills for the spending come home. Well the bill has come due for Green Bay's spending.
My criticism of the spending spree has nothing to do with the ability of the players. But long term the most feasible answer is to bite the bullet now or prolong the cost, like credit card bills, over a long time. Perhaps there's a middle ground.
The Packers should unload as much as they can now, regardless of position, and look for 2025 to rebound.
Of course the 'fire everybody' crowd wants top Packers brass beheaded. The brass did what they had to to keep His Darkness happy. They signed a bunch of players to outrageous contracts. No one can say the Packers are cheap but the spending has a cost. Yes, hindsight is 20-20, but the future is clouded by the 'all in' of the past. A good example is the Rams except the Packers never got to the Super Bowl.

-2 points
0
2
fthisJack's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:04 am

That's why trading Bahk makes so much sense.

0 points
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0
TxFred's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:13 am

Don't ever paint yourselves in "cap hell corner" again. Only MVP that counts is the MVP of the SB. End of. A team sport. No individual is worth, cap space hell. Spending money like socialists.

-1 points
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jurp's picture

April 06, 2023 at 11:16 am

"Deficits don't matter" - Richard Cheney

1 points
1
0
Ima Payne's picture

April 05, 2023 at 01:06 pm

Thank you for taking the time and throughly explaining the salary cap issue. You could have just said quickl, the 2004 salary cap for the packers is a cluster f and we would have gotten it but you did way more then that to explain how next year most definitely is a cluster f.

-1 points
0
1
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 05, 2023 at 04:29 pm

Exactly why they shouldve moved on from Bakhtiari, Clark, and Jones. 3 horrible contracts made worse by a series of annual restructures that only perpetuate the problem. Love all 3 of them and what they've given this team over the years, but the smartest move was to take the short term hit to get those awful contracts off the books and then look to take advantage of the rise in salary cap next year. Instead, they'll be pinching pennies for the 5th year in a row just to maintain the status quo that already wasnt good enough while their opponents actually make their teams better with cap flexibility the Packers just dont have and wont have anytime soon. Salary cap management is paramount to the longterm health of any franchise and the goofballs out there crying "the cap isnt real!!!" are beyond clueless. You pay it, you cap it. Its as simple as that. And the bill always comes due eventually. Chiefs just won the super bowl and began the offseason with like $70 mil in cap space. Dont see them scrambling to dump awful contracts cuz they take care of their salary cap. As a wise man once said, "take care of the cap and it will take care of you." Teddy T wouldve broke his foot off in someone's ass for such awful cap mismanagement.

-1 points
0
1
StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:37 am

It is interesting how people here parrot what Packer Management feeds them.

The Packers actually have the 4th most cap space in the NFL:behind only the Bears, Panthers and Lions.

Google 2023 salary cap by team.

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

The Packers are 12 months removed from 13-3, 13-3, and 13-4 seasons.

And Management is destroying the team out of ignorance and emotion.

-2 points
0
2
joejetson's picture

April 05, 2023 at 10:55 pm

Spectacular mismanagement of the entire salary structure. They've bungled it so completely they can't fix it for several more seasons. The cherry on top was when they unnecessarily rewrote Rodgers' contract last season to appease his ego, and now even trading him off the team still costs them millions. They screwed themselves financially AND simultaneously reduced 12's trade value. And Murphy has the gall to defend them with his "We're not idiots" comment.

-1 points
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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 08:29 am

"The Great Reynoldo", very informative article.

Please let me point out a couple corrections you may wish to make.

In your table, "#1 32 players under Contract per Overthecap - $232,449.000" the $232,449,000 is incorrect. If you go to Over the Cap and add the 32 players - from Rodgers through Tyrell Ford - you will see that the number/total should be $242,449,000.

If you do not make this correction, your #s 1 through 7 will not add up to your subtotal of $261,730,000 after #7.

Also, for:

"# 13 Additional Charges for 2023 draft class in 2024 - Net $7.13 M As for line 13, I am indebted to Ken Ingalls for noticing this issue. Let us assume that the 11 players Packers draft in 2023 (their own picks plus pick 43 from the Jets) will all not just make the team in 2023 but also all of them will remain on the team at least until the 2024 draft. The second year cap numbers for those eleven 2023 draft picks adds up to $13.899M ...."

the 2023 Packer draft picks Quay Walker through Samouri Toure and their full salary cap hits are already included in Over the Cap table and total which is included in your "#1, 32 players under Contract per Overthecap - $232,449.000" and , consequently you are double counting the $7.13 million. By the way, the 2023 draft picks total $18,543,869 in 2024 salary cap hit, not $13,899,000.

"The Great Reynoldo" of the 29 writers that Cheese Head TV lists you are the only one without a first and last name and also no photo or background as to your expertise. Are you employee or an independent contractor for the Packers? It is hard to imagine anyone digging as deep into the weeds and nuances of the NFL contracts without being paid for it.

And what is the origin of the name "The Great Reynoldo"? Is your first name Reynoldo?

"The notion that the Packers salary cap situation will be fixed quickly simply by trading Aaron Rodgers is false."

In fact, trading Aaron Rodgers before June 1, 2023 rather than keeping Rodgers for the 2023 season increases the 2023 Cap hit by approximately $9 million, as you know.

That cap savings however is NOT the obvious reason not to trade Aaron Rodgers, the fact that Rodgers is one year removed from 2 consecutive MVP seasons and 2 consecutive passer rating titles (the passer rating being a composite of the most important criteria in judging a QB's individual performance interception percentage, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, and completion percentage) in which Rodgers bested every other one of the thirty one starting quarterbacks and the presumed replacement for Rodgers is Jordan, who, as nice a kid he is, has one NFL start in which he failed, and led all of College of football in throwing interceptions his last year of college is the obvious reason not to trade Rodgers.

"Moreover, too many fans think executing the trade after June 1 so the Packers can split the dead money with $15.8M counting in 2023 and the other $24.5M counting in 2024 fixes the cap issues. It doesn't: it only allows the Packers to spend money that they can ill afford on free agents in 2023."

The Packers already had the cap space to sign free agents in 2023 without any need for a Packers trade before or after June 1, 2023.

The Packers are currently $22.6 million under the salary cap per "Spotrac" and $21.8 million under the cap per "Over the Cap" (both Spotrac and Over the Cap's numbers will need to be adjusted downward probably by $300,000 or so for the net effect of the Leavitt signing) on their first 51 players, which is all the Packers need to account for until September 2023 under NFL salary cap provisions before even considering the approximate $15.8 million more ($31.6 cap hit if Rodgers plays for the Packers in 2023 minus $15.8 cap hit) cap accounting dollars the Packers would save with a trade of Rodgers after June 1, 2023.

Nonetheless, the Packers have blown their chance to use some of that $22.6 million - or $21.8 million if you prefer - to sign their own free agents - Tonyan (Bears 2023 cap hit $2.6 million) , Lazard (Jets 2023 cap hit $3.2 million), and Jarran Reed (Seahawks $3 million) or Cobb and Lewis who are both still unsigned and will each probably sign one year deals in the $2 to $2.5 million range.

And the Jets, who just signed Lazard two weeks ago have $9.8 in cap space for their first 51 players compared to the Packers $22.6 million for their first 51 players.

All these re signings of Packer veterans Tonyan, Lazard, Reed, Cobb and Lewis will prove to have been more valuable for the $ spent than whatever Brian comes up with as replacements due to these veterans positive effect on team morale and chemistry - intangibles - and obvious on field performance relative to the current "veteran" Packer wide receivers and current tight ends as a group and defensive linemen.

Whatever management comes up with as replacements - be at the same salary cap dollars as the Jets and Bears paid to Lazard and Tonyan and Seahawks paid for Reed or a million or 2 million cheaper at the league minimum $750,000 for a first year player, league minimum $875,00 2nd year player or league minimum $940,000 3rd year player - the value per dollar will not be the same as having kept Lazard, Tonyan, and Reed.

Current Packer management just seems to know the cost of everything and the value of nothing - including intangibles.

The Packer 2023-24 team should be a 13-4 playoff team again - as it was a year ago at this time - if it were managed prudently.

Anyone can be a Packer Front Office Bean Counter, the value comes with thinking and recognizing value, both intangible and tangible.

"Using a little of the $24.5M to acquire an offensive weapon so the Packers can fairly evaluate Jordan Love is a defensible position in a football sense, in my opinion."

The Great Reynoldo, if the Packers Management - Brian - were going to acquire an offensive weapon, wouldn't the time to do it have been on March 13 when the Packers could negotiate with all the various offensive weapons - including Lazard and Tonyan- that were quickly jumped on by other teams? Are we waiting for Sammy Watkins "value" again?

The Packers have $22.6 million of cap space right now to acquire an offensive weapon right now.
The Great Reynoldo, I read over the numbered items in the table.

I will comment on some of them.

"#1. 32 players under contract per Overthecap for $232.449."

Spotrac shows 38 players under contract at about $242 million he differences being Allen, Delance, Goodson, White, Franklin and Thomas.

"#2 Add 19 more players at the $795K min - $15.1 M"

If you use Sportrac's 38 players under contract that would be 13 more contracts at $0.795 or $10.3 million

"#3 Add Jordan Love's 5th Year Option"

I will be SHOCKED SHOCKED SHOCKED if the Packers exercise their $20 million 5th year option for Jordan for 2024 come May 1, 2023.

Talk about cap space for 2024?

What a waste of cap space that could be.

THE GIANTS DID NOT EXERCISE THEIR 5TH YEAR OPTION ON DANIEL JONES LAST MAY AND JONES HAD 36 MORE STARTS THAN JORDAN LOVE AND JONES DID NOT LEAD ALL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL IN NTERCEPTIONS THROWN IN ANY OF HIS 3 YEARS AS DUKE'S STARTER!!!

The calculating "business" thing for Brian and Mark to do - not the morally and ethically and Packer Identity protecting thing to do but the calculating business thing to do - would be to drop the ignorant and emotion driven trade and exercise the option for Aaron's 2025 season by paying Aaron the $58.3 million payment which can then be spread over the life of the remaining 4 year contract and bring Aaron back for 2023-24 and let Jordan compete for the starting job.

Give Jordan the starting job the first few games of the regular season and see how he does.

If Jordan performs better in 2023 than Rodgers did in 2008 (and better than Aaron did in 2022, which was also better than most QBs in the NFL despite the nonsense of some posters on this board), then the calculating "business" minded soulless Brian and Mark can trade Aaron in between the March 15, 2024 season's first day until the September 2024 deadline for the Packers to exercise their option for Aaron's 2026's season when they must pay $47 million to be able to spread that $47 million over the remaining 3 years of the contract.

If Jordan - after 4 years as an NFL QB at a time when most franchise QBs drafted in the first round are starting year one - performs much worse than Aaron did in 2008 (and worse than Aaron did in 2022 which was also better than most QBs despite the nonsense of some posters on this board), then no team in the NFL will be chomping at the bit to sign Jordan Love to a new contract for 2024 going forward and the Packers can look at drafting a QB in 2024, if they have not already drafted one on April 27 or April 28, 2023 that did not lead all of College Football in interceptions.

If you look at the year by year 2000 through 2022 NFL statistics for total QB performance:

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-league-average-passer-rating-each-y...

totals for all 32 teams quarterbacks - you will notice that quarterback performance numbers have improved significantly. This improvement in QB numbers is in no small measure due to the continuous rule changes to protect quarterbacks and create more offense and scoring.

If you compare 2008 totals for all QBs - Aaron's 1st year as a starter - to 2022's totals for all QBs, you will notice the following:

Passer Rating - has increased 7.1% (Aaron's 93.8% in 2008 would have been 100.4% in 2022)

Pass Attempts per season has increased 9.3% (Aaron's 536 in 2008 would have been 586 in 2022)

Completion Pct. - has increased 5.2% (Aaron's 63.6% in 2008 would have been 66.9% in 2022)

Yards per Attempt - has increased 1.4% (Aaron's 7.5% in 2008 would have been 7.6% in 2022)

Yards per Game - has increased 4.5% (Aaron's 252.4 or 4,038 yards over 16 games in 2008 would have been 263.88 or 4,486 yards over 17 games in 2022)

TD% per pass attempt - has increased 7.6% (Aaron's 5.2 % in 2008 and 28 TD passes would have been 5.6% in 2022 and 32.5 TD passes in 2022)

Interception % per pass attempt: has fallen 17.1% (Aaron's 2.4% in 2008 would have been 1.9% in 2022)

Interceptions: have fallen by 10.2% (Aaron's 13 in 2008 would have fallen to 11.6 in 2022)

Keep these numbers handy as we compare Jordan in his 4th year relative to Aaron in his 4th year in this Ignorant, emotion based Packer Management trade goes through.

So the $20 million to Jordan Love in 2024 should be removed at this point until we have an idea of what we have in Jordan which may be a BIG ZERO. Plus I don't think Packer Management will exercise Jordan's 5th year option come the May 1, 2023 deadline to do so.

"4 Delete Aaron Rodgers' Scheduled Cap # of $40.7M"

I would keep the $40.7 cap hit in for 2024 and Aaron has said following the Lions loss - 5 dropped passes and an Aaron Jones fumble that go unmentioned - and thereafter that he would be willing to re structure his contract and expected this, so the $40.7 may be lower with the implied renegotiation of his contract and $58.3 option payment

"5. Add Rashan Gary's Estimated '24 Cap # - $22.5 M"

Given Matt Judon at $18M, Nick Bosa at $17.8, Demarcus Lawrence at $17.1, Khalil Mack at $16.6, Joey Bosa $15.7, Za'Darius Smith $15.5, etc. etc. isn't $22 million quite high for Rashan, especially as Rashan is just coming off the ACL tear?

With all due respect to Rashan, but Za'Darius Smith wreaked more havoc when he was with the Packers - and Vikings last year too - when they were both healthy. Rashan is younger and was up and coming before tearing the ACL, but $17.5 sounds more appropriate than $22.

I don't quite understand the idea of a nearly $35 M signing bonus paid in 2023 at the same time as a new 4 year contract.

As Rashan is coming off of an ACL tear that took place on the artificial turf - which Bakhtiari will never agree to play on in New York (capitol of non contact leg injuries) - in Detroit in Week 9 in November and an ACL tear usually takes a year to recover from and get back on the field:

a) Would Green Bay Management really pay a $35 million signing bonus based on a few weeks performance?

b) Even if Rashan knocks the cover off the ball, why such a large signing bonus. $20 million sounds more reasonable.

c) And if the large signing bonus is partially an attempt to convert 2023 salary to signing bonus, why? By the time Rashan will have had any time on the field to judge his performance - probably December 2023 - what would any conversion of Rashan's 2023 $10 million salary to amortizable signing bonus do for the Packers in 2023? The Packers could not use salary cap space at that point in 2023 to sign free agents and if they could who would be still available? At best you have a rollover of cap space to 2024 that you could create in 2024 by converting some additional 2024 salary (in lieu of additional 2023 signing bonus) to 2024 signing bonus.

When I recalculate the $261.7 Sub total with the noted adjustments - add $5 million net for Spotrac 4 additional players under contract in 2024, remove Jordan Love's $20.2 million, add back Aaron Rodgers $40.7 million (assuming Aaron did not restructure the $58 option in 2023 and $47 M option in 2024) reduce Rashan Gary by $4.5 million - I come up with a new Sub total of $282.7 million.

"12 - Cost of Signing 2024 Draft Picks - Estimated Net $6M - I am going to assume that the Packers are just under .500, that they receive a later pick in the second round from the Jets, that they are awarded a 5th, 6th and two 7th round compensatory picks, and guess that the net cost to sign the 2024 draft class will be about $6M."

In 2023 the Packers currently have 10 picks that Spotrac estimates will cost the Packers $11 Million dollars from $3.136 million for pick #15 to 0.726 million for pick #256. There are currently 64 Packers under contract and the lowest paid 10 are in contract for $750,000 totaling $7.500,000. Thus the difference of replacing the 10 lowest paid Packers with the 10 rookies is an incremental cost of $3.5 million in 2023. Consequently $6 million incremental cost to replace the 12 lowest paid Packers in 2024 with 12 draft choice appears to be about $1.5 million too high even if the difference between the salary cap hit of a late 2nd round choice - say $1.250 M - exceeds your estimated $795K cost of the lowest paid Packers in 2024 and even if 10% inflation in salaries - $350,000 - is added to the incremental 2023 difference of $3.5 million between drafted rookie contracts and lowest paid Packers.

"# 13 Additional Charges for 2023 draft class in 2024 - Net $7.13 M"

The 2023 Packer draft picks Quay Walker through Samouri Toure and their full salary cap hits are already included in Over the Cap table, consequently you are double counting the $7.13 million.

So if I make these 2 adjustments to your #12 (reduce by $1.5 M) and #13 (reduce by $7.13M) and add your "piggy bank" #8, #9, #10, and #11 numbers to my adjusted Subtotal of $282.7 I get calculate approximately $297.2 M salary cap usage which would put the Packers over Over the Cap's $256 M mark necessitating the same restructurings of contracts, extensions of contracts and renegotiated and lowering of salaries and roster bonuses - and some releases of unproductive players where the dead cap hit is less than the salary cap savings - that every NFL team goes through every year. The Packers being about in the middle of the NFL's 32 teams right now in terms of salary cap space in 2023.

"I might acquiesce to using a couple/several million on an offensive weapon to give Jordan Love a fair opportunity,"

As I wrote earlier, Tonyan (Bears 2023 cap hit $2.6 million) , Lazard (Jets 2023 cap hit $3.2 million), were there for the Packers and within the "couple/several million" you state.

What happened?

Packer Management just cheap or did they alienate another 2 Packer veterans by the poor treatment of long time Packers and teammates?

Well Cobb and Lewis are both still unsigned and Cobb was only behind Watson in yards after the catch and 2 drops to Romeo's 9 and each will probably sign one year deals in the $2 to $2.5 million range.

"but the vast majority of that deferred money, if the trade is not executed until June 2, has to be rolled over into 2024. Some sustained discipline will be necessary. If the trade happens before June, the issue will not arise. The Packers' effective cap space for 2023 is still about a negative $3M"

Where are you getting the "negative $3M effective cap space" from for 2023?

The Packers are currently $22.6 million under the salary cap per "Spotrac" and $21.8 million under the cap per "Over the Cap" (both Spotrac and Over the Cap's numbers will need to be adjusted downward probably by $300,000 or so for the net effect of the Leavitt signing) on their first 51 players, which is all the Packers need to account for until September 2023 under NFL salary cap provisions

The Packers are $22.6 million (or $21.8 under) the 2023 salary cap before even considering the approximate $15.8 million more ($31.6 cap hit if Rodgers plays for the Packers in 2023 minus $15.8 cap hit) cap accounting dollars the Packers would save with Packer Management's Ignorant Emotion Driven trade of Rodgers after June 1, 2023.

if Packer Management's Ignorant Emotion Driven trade of Rodgers were to occur before June 1, 2023 the Packers salary cap current surplus of $22.6 million would drop by approximately $9 million ($31 million cap hit assuming Rodgers plays for the Packers in 2023 minus $40M salary cap hit from immediate write off of remainder of 2 past bonsues) to #13.6 million. That's not a negative $3.

"but the vast majority of that deferred money, if the trade is not executed until June 2, has to be rolled over into 2024. Some sustained discipline will be necessary. If the trade happens before June, the issue will not arise."

"The Great Reynoldo", but if you take the $40.3 M salary cap hit before June 2, 2023 rather than just $15.8, that means you will have $24.5 less cap space surplus left in 2023 to rollover into 2024. Consequently, the net salary cap impact in 2024 between the 2 choices of taking a $40.3 salary cap hit in 2023 or taking a $15.8 salary cap hit in 2023 is ZERO.

"As for the UFAs in 2024, so much depends on not just how Nijman, Runyan, Dillon, Nixon, and Deguara play in 2023 (and thus how much they might cost to re-sign), but also on whether players from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 drafts step up. "

"The Great Reynolodo", it is amazing how few of Brian's draft picks from 2018 (11 picks and only 1, Jaire Alexander, still on the roster), 2019 (8 picks and only 3 left on the roster), 2020 (9 picks and only 4 still on the roster), 2021 (9 and just 6 still left) are left. And Rhyan, Jean Charles, Newman and Myers should be gone already and replaced by reliable bets, but once again Packer managements seems to know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.

"As for the UFAs in 2024, so much depends on not just how Nijman, Runyan, Dillon, Nixon, and Deguara play in 2023 (and thus how much they might cost to re-sign), but also on whether players from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 drafts step up. Cutting or trading Bakhtiari to get $21.5M in cap space (or extending him) might be necessary, but it makes letting Nijman walk as a free agent after the 2023 season more difficult. If Runyan has a solid year, he might be in that $7M to $10M AAV area. I do not see how a team can let 3 of their top 7 OL leave in one offseason. Cutting Aaron Jones ($17.17M cap # in 2024) and letting Dillon walk would present a similar dilemma."

Cutting Jones or Bakhtiairi would be more ignorant decisions. Bakhtiari is an immovable wall - watch him on "All 22/Coaches film". Dillon had a lot of drops last year after being a very reliable pass catcher the 2 years before. Dillon also appeared a little slow last year but he was getting absolutely no help from Myers - who should be benched or cut (there is some salary space room for you) - and not much from Runyan either - my fellow Packer fan friends and I have the NFL Plus' "All 22"/Coaches film and run back the plays from different angles and Myers gets manhandled and does not sustain his blocks and Runyan is not much better in run blocking and pass blocking wasn't much better. Nixon is a keeper - one of those top performers that you don't let go. Nijman was solid when not injured. Deguara seems to have potential and was a reliable pass catcher and blocker, though not a game breaker/game changer like Donyell Washiington may be in the red zone.

"Restructuring the same player multiple times leads to $40.58M cap numbers for left tackles."

"The Great Reynoldo" left tackles are one of the highest valued positions in the game and David Bakhtiari is one of the best. In addition left tackles normally have long careers often stretching into their late 30s or early 40s, Bakhtiari is but 31 years old Jake Matthews, Trent Williams, Laremy Tunsil, Ronnie Standley and Cam Robinson all have larger 2023 salary cap hits than Bakhtiari and Baktiari's 2024's $40.5 cap hit is composed of $10.7 m salary and $9.5 M roster bonus which be either renegotiated or all be converted to signing bonus spread out over a 4 year contract extension if Bakhtiari - like Gary - shows he is fully recovered from his ACL tear. If Bakhtiari finishes out that 4 year contract the salary cap hit at retirement is zero.

There is a nucleus of top performers that you just do not let go on the hope and prayer that you will find some one half as productive.

-3 points
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5
Coldworld's picture

April 06, 2023 at 10:48 am

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Fred Tomlinson / Michael Edward Palin / Terry Jones

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 07, 2023 at 04:40 am

No substance from you of course, just mindless dribble.

But no TRUTH or substance can be expected from those paid by Packer Management to repeat their propaganda and defend them.

It is interesting how people here parrot the propaganda and "talking points" Packer Management feeds to them and read to them.

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

Like a bewildered heard of lemming and an angry mob they drink it down.

How about doing your own independent research and making some comparisons with other teams.

The Packers actually have the 4th most cap space in the NFL,

And that is including the playing $31.6 cap hit of Aaron Rodgers - one year removed from leading all 32 teams' starting QBS in passer rating, a composite of completion %, interception %, touchdowns per pass attempt, and yards per pass attempt, not once but 2 years in a row and one year removed form 2 consecutive MVPs as well!!

And the Packers have the 4th most cap space in the NFL not only in terms of first 51 players, which is all that matters until September 2023:

Bears $38.3
Panthers $27.2
Lions $24.0
Packers $22.6
Texan $22.5
Least Cap Space:
Vikings $1.1

and also 4th most cap space in the NFL in terms of total players:

Bears $27.7 (64 players signed)
Panthers $19.0M (62 players signed)
Rams $13.4M (45 players signed)
Packers $12.6M (65 players signed)
Lions $8.7M (70 players signed)
Least Cap Space
Commanders -17.2 (75 players signed)

Google 2023 salary cap by team.

The Packers are 12 months removed from 13-3, 13-3, and 13-4 seasons.

They are also the 9th youngest team in the entire NFL.

Team age:
Rams 25.91
Titans 26.15
Browns 26.25
Giants 26.24
Colts 26.24
Chiefs 26.24
Bears 26.25
Bengals 26.27
Packers 26.29

Oldest Team:
Patriots 27.59

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

And Packer Management is destroying the team out of ignorance and emotion and their hurt egos because their quarterback is more truthful and intelligent and communicative than they are.

In the 2028 season the Packers then 2 time MVP breaks the all time NFL record for fewest interceptions by a QB attempting 500 passes in a season

The next season the Packers then 2 time MVP once again surpasses all Quarterbacks in NFL history and finishes 2nd - behind his own 2018 record setting performance - for fewest interceptions by a Quarterback attempting 500 or more passes, with 4 interceptions.

And what does GM Brian and President Mark do following Aaron's 2nd record breaking season for protecting the football?

They draft the quarterback that in the season he has just completed led all of college football in interceptions - giving the ball away.

And they trade up in the first round giving up their 30th pick and 136th pick (4th round. Rams tight end Brycen Hopkins) to move to slot 26 to get him!!
.

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greengold's picture

April 06, 2023 at 11:54 am

You, Sir, have a problem.

Take it from us. We right some long fucking posts...

SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM!

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 07, 2023 at 04:43 am

You lack any substance and like others just repeat - like a parrot - what Packer Management reads to you.

How about doing your own independent research and making some comparisons with other teams.

Know the facts:

The Packers actually have the 4th most cap space in the NFL,

And that is including the playing $31.6 cap hit of Aaron Rodgers - one year removed from leading all 32 teams' starting QBS in passer rating, a composite of completion %, interception %, touchdowns per pass attempt, and yards per pass attempt, not once but 2 years in a row and one year removed form 2 consecutive MVPs as well!!

And the Packers have the 4th most cap space in the NFL not only in terms of first 51 players, which is all that matters until September 2023:

Bears $38.3
Panthers $27.2
Lions $24.0
Packers $22.6
Texan $22.5
Least Cap Space:
Vikings $1.1

and also 4th most cap space in the NFL in terms of total players:

Bears $27.7 (64 players signed)
Panthers $19.0M (62 players signed)
Rams $13.4M (45 players signed)
Packers $12.6M (65 players signed)
Lions $8.7M (70 players signed)
Least Cap Space
Commanders -17.2 (75 players signed)

Google 2023 salary cap by team.

The Packers are 12 months removed from 13-3, 13-3, and 13-4 seasons.

They are also the 9th youngest team in the entire NFL.

Team age:
Rams 25.91
Titans 26.15
Browns 26.25
Giants 26.24
Colts 26.24
Chiefs 26.24
Bears 26.25
Bengals 26.27
Packers 26.29

Oldest Team:
Patriots 27.59

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

And Packer Management is destroying the team out of ignorance and emotion and their hurt egos because their quarterback is more truthful and intelligent and communicative than they are.

In the 2028 season the Packers then 2 time MVP breaks the all time NFL record for fewest interceptions by a QB attempting 500 passes in a season

The next season the Packers then 2 time MVP once again surpasses all Quarterbacks in NFL history and finishes 2nd - behind his own 2018 record setting performance - for fewest interceptions by a Quarterback attempting 500 or more passes, with 4 interceptions.

And what does GM Brian and President Mark do following Aaron's 2nd record breaking season for protecting the football?

They draft the quarterback that in the season he has just completed led all of college football in interceptions - giving the ball away.

And they trade up in the first round giving up their 30th pick and 136th pick (4th round. Rams tight end Brycen Hopkins) to move to slot 26 to get him!!
.

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 10:14 am

It is interesting how people here parrot what Packer Management feeds them.

The Packers actually have the 4th most cap space in the NFL:behind only the Bears, Panthers and Lions.

Google 2023 salary cap by team. Go to:

spotrac.com and nfl and cap

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

The Packers are 12 months removed from 13-3, 13-3, and 13-4 seasons.

They are also the 9th youngest team in the entire NFL.

And Management is destroying the team out of ignorance and emotion.

-3 points
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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 06, 2023 at 05:48 pm

"The Great Reynoldo", very informative article.

Please let me point out a couple corrections you may wish to make.

In your table, "#1 32 players under Contract per Overthecap - $232,449.000" the $232,449,000 is incorrect. If you go to Over the Cap and add the 32 players - from Rodgers through Tyrell Ford - you will see that the number/total should be $242,449,000.

If you do not make this correction, your #s 1 through 7 will not add up to your subtotal of $261,730,000 after #7.

Also, for:

"# 13 Additional Charges for 2023 draft class in 2024 - Net $7.13 M As for line 13, I am indebted to Ken Ingalls for noticing this issue. Let us assume that the 11 players Packers draft in 2023 (their own picks plus pick 43 from the Jets) will all not just make the team in 2023 but also all of them will remain on the team at least until the 2024 draft. The second year cap numbers for those eleven 2023 draft picks adds up to $13.899M ...."

the 2023 Packer draft picks Quay Walker through Samouri Toure and their full salary cap hits are already included in Over the Cap table and total which is included in your "#1, 32 players under Contract per Overthecap - $232,449.000" and , consequently you are double counting the $7.13 million. By the way, the 2023 draft picks total $18,543,869 in 2024 salary cap hit, not $13,899,000.

"The Great Reynoldo" of the 29 writers that Cheese Head TV lists you are the only one without a first and last name and also no photo or background as to your expertise. Are you employee or an independent contractor for the Packers? It is hard to imagine anyone digging as deep into the weeds and nuances of the NFL contracts without being paid for it.

And what is the origin of the name "The Great Reynoldo"? Is your first name Reynoldo?

"The notion that the Packers salary cap situation will be fixed quickly simply by trading Aaron Rodgers is false."
In fact, trading Aaron Rodgers before June 1, 2023 rather than keeping Rodgers for the 2023 season increases the 2023 Cap hit by approximately $9 million, as you know.

That cap savings however is NOT the obvious reason not to trade Aaron Rodgers, the fact that Rodgers is one year removed from 2 consecutive MVP seasons and 2 consecutive passer rating titles (the passer rating being a composite of the most important criteria in judging a QB's individual performance interception percentage, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, and completion percentage) in which Rodgers bested every other one of the thirty one starting quarterbacks and the presumed replacement for Rodgers is Jordan, who, as nice a kid he is, has one NFL start in which he failed, and led all of College of football in throwing interceptions his last year of college is the obvious reason not to trade Rodgers.

"Moreover, too many fans think executing the trade after June 1 so the Packers can split the dead money with $15.8M counting in 2023 and the other $24.5M counting in 2024 fixes the cap issues. It doesn't: it only allows the Packers to spend money that they can ill afford on free agents in 2023."

The Packers already had the cap space to sign free agents in 2023 without any need for a Packers trade before or after June 1, 2023.

The Packers are currently $22.6 million under the salary cap per "Spotrac" and $21.8 million under the cap per "Over the Cap" (both Spotrac and Over the Cap's numbers will need to be adjusted downward probably by $300,000 or so for the net effect of the Leavitt signing) on their first 51 players, which is all the Packers need to account for until September 2023 under NFL salary cap provisions before even considering the approximate $15.8 million more ($31.6 cap hit if Rodgers plays for the Packers in 2023 minus $15.8 cap hit) cap accounting dollars the Packers would save with a trade of Rodgers after June 1, 2023.

Nonetheless, the Packers have blown their chance to use some of that $22.6 million - or $21.8 million if you prefer - to sign their own free agents - Tonyan (Bears 2023 cap hit $2.6 million) , Lazard (Jets 2023 cap hit $3.2 million), and Jarran Reed (Seahawks $3 million) or Cobb and Lewis who are both still unsigned and will each probably sign one year deals in the $2 to $2.5 million range.

And the Jets, who just signed Lazard two weeks ago have $9.8 in cap space for their first 51 players compared to the Packers $22.6 million for their first 51 players.

All these re signings of Packer veterans Tonyan, Lazard, Reed, Cobb and Lewis will prove to have been more valuable for the $ spent than whatever Brian comes up with as replacements due to these veterans positive effect on team morale and chemistry - intangibles - and obvious on field performance relative to the current "veteran" Packer wide receivers and current tight ends as a group and defensive linemen.

Whatever management comes up with as replacements - be at the same salary cap dollars as the Jets and Bears paid to Lazard and Tonyan and Seahawks paid for Reed or a million or 2 million cheaper at the league minimum $750,000 for a first year player, league minimum $875,00 2nd year player or league minimum $940,000 3rd year player - will not return the value for the dollar that re-signing Lazard, Tonyan, Reed, Cobb and Lewis would bring.

Current Packer management just seems to know the cost of everything and the value of nothing - including intangibles.

The Packer 2023-24 team should be a 13-4 playoff team again - as it was a year ago at this time - if it were managed prudently.

Anyone can be a Packer Front Office Bean Counter, the value comes with thinking and recognizing value, both intangible and tangible.

"Using a little of the $24.5M to acquire an offensive weapon so the Packers can fairly evaluate Jordan Love is a defensible position in a football sense, in my opinion."

The Great Reynoldo, if the Packers Management - Brian - were going to acquire an offensive weapon, wouldn't the time to do it have been on March 13 when the Packers could negotiate with all the various offensive weapons - including Lazard and Tonyan- that were quickly jumped on by other teams? Are we waiting for Sammy Watkins "value" again?

The Packers have $22.6 million of cap space right now to acquire an offensive weapon right now.

The Great Reynoldo, I read over the numbered items in the table.

I will comments on some of them.

"#1. 32 players under contract per Overthecap for $232.449."
Spotrac shows 38 players under contract at about $242 million he differences being Allen, Delance, Goodson, White, Franklin and Thomas.

"#2 Add 19 more players at the $795K min - $15.1 M"
If you use Sportrac's 38 players under contract that would be 13 more contracts at $0.795 or $10.3 million

"#3 Add Jordan Love's 5th Year Option"

I will be SHOCKED SHOCKED SHOCKED if the Packers exercise their $20 million 5th year option for Jordan for 2024 come May 1, 2023.

Talk about cap space for 2024?

What a waste of cap space that could be.

THE GIANTS DID NOT EXERCISE THEIR 5TH YEAR OPTION ON DANIEL JONES LAST MAY AND JONES HAD 36 MORE STARTS THAN JORDAN LOVE AND JONES DID NOT LEAD ALL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL IN NTERCEPTIONS THROWN IN ANY OF HIS 3 YEARS AS DUKE'S STARTER!!!

The calculating "business" thing for Brian and Mark to do - not the morally and ethically and Packer Identity protecting thing to do but the calculating business thing to do - would be to drop the ignorant and emotion driven trade and exercise the option for Aaron's 2025 season by paying Aaron the $58.3 million payment which can then be spread over the life of the remaining 4 year contract and bring Aaron back for 2023-24 and let Jordan compete for the starting job.

Give Jordan the starting job the first few games of the regular season and see how he does.

if Jordan performs better in 2023 than Rodgers did in 2008 (and better than Aaron did in 2022, which was also better than most QBs in the NFL despite the nonsense of some posters on this board), then the calculating "business" minded soulless Brian and Mark can trade Aaron in between the March 15, 2024 season's first day until the September 2024 deadline for the Packers to exercise their option for Aaron's 2026's season when they must pay $47 million to be able to spread that $47 million over the remaining 3 years of the contract.

If Jordan - after 4 years as an NFL QB at a time when most franchise QBs drafted in the first round are starting year one - performs much worse than Aaron did in 2008 (and worse than Aaron did in 2022 which was also better than most QBs despite the nonsense of some posters on this board), then no team in the NFL will be chomping at the bit to sign Jordan Love to a new contract for 2024 going forward and the Packers can look at drafting a QB in 2024, if they have not already drafted one on April 27 or April 28, 2023 that did not lead all of College Football in interceptions.

If you look at the year by year 2000 through 2022 NFL statistics for total QB performance - from Statsmuse -
totals for all 32 teams quarterbacks - you will notice that quarterback performance numbers have improved significantly.

This improvement in QB numbers is in no small measure due to the continuous rule changes to protect quarterbacks and create more offense and scoring.

If you compare 2008 totals for all QBs - Aaron's 1st year as a starter - to 2022's totals for all QBs, you will notice the following:

Passer Rating - has increased 7.1% (Aaron's 93.8% in 2008 would have been 100.4% in 2022)

Pass Attempts per season has increased 9.3% (Aaron's 536 in 2008 would have been 586 in 2022)

Completion Pct. - has increased 5.2% (Aaron's 63.6% in 2008 would have been 66.9% in 2022)

Yards per Attempt - has increased 1.4% (Aaron's 7.5% in 2008 would have been 7.6% in 2022)

Yards per Game - has increased 4.5% (Aaron's 252.4 or 4,038 yards over 16 games in 2008 would have been 263.88 or 4,486 yards over 17 games in 2022)

TD% per pass attempt - has increased 7.6% (Aaron's 5.2 % in 2008 and 28 TD passes would have been 5.6% in 2022 and 32.5 TD passes in 2022)

Interception % per pass attempt: has fallen 17.1% (Aaron's 2.4% in 2008 would have been 1.9% in 2022)

Interceptions: have fallen by 10.2% (Aaron's 13 in 2008 would have fallen to 11.6 in 2022)

Keep these numbers handy as we compare Jordan in his 4th year relative to Aaron in his 4th year in this Ignorant, emotion based Packer Management trade goes through.

So the $20 million to Jordan Love in 2024 should be removed at this point until we have an idea of what we have in Jordan which may be a BIG ZERO. Plus I don't think Packer Management will exercise Jordan's 5th year option come the May 1, 2023 deadline to do so.

"4 Delete Aaron Rodgers' Scheduled Cap # of $40.7M"

I would keep the $40.7 cap hit in for 2024 and Aaron has said following the Lions loss - 5 dropped passes and an Aaron Jones fumble that go unmentioned - and thereafter that he would be willing to re structure his contract and expected this, so the $40.7 may be lower with the implied renegotiation of his contract and $58.3 option payment

"5. Add Rashan Gary's Estimated '24 Cap # - $22.5 M"

Given Matt Judon at $18M, Nick Bosa at $17.8, Demarcus Lawrence at $17.1, Khalil Mack at $16.6, Joey Bosa $15.7, Za'Darius Smith $15.5, etc. etc. isn't $22 million quite high for Rashan, especially as Rashan is just coming off the ACL tear?

With all due respect to Rashan, but Za'Darius Smith wreaked more havoc when he was with the Packers - and Vikings last year too - when they were both healthy. Rashan is younger and was up and coming before tearing the ACL, but $17.5 sounds more appropriate than $22.

I don't quite understand the idea of a nearly $35 M signing bonus paid in 2023 at the same time as a new 4 year contract.

As Rashan is coming off of an ACL tear that took place on the artificial turf - which Bakhtiari will never agree to play on in New York (capitol of non contact leg injuries) - in Detroit in Week 9 in November and an ACL tear usually takes a year to recover from and get back on the field:

a) Would Green Bay Management really pay a $35 million signing bonus based on a few weeks performance?

b) Even if Rashan knocks the cover off the ball, why such a large signing bonus. $20 million sounds more reasonable.

c) And if the large signing bonus is partially an attempt to convert 2023 salary to signing bonus, why? By the time Rashan will have had any time on the field to judge his performance - probably December 2023 - what would any conversion of Rashan's 2023 $10 million salary to amortizable signing bonus do for the Packers in 2023? The Packers could not use salary cap space at that point in 2023 to sign free agents and if they could who would be still available? At best you have a rollover of cap space to 2024 that you could create in 2024 by converting some additional 2024 salary (in lieu of additional 2023 signing bonus) to 2024 signing bonus.

When I recalculate the $261.7 Sub total with the noted adjustments - add $5 million net for Spotrac 4 additional players under contract in 2024, remove Jordan Love's $20.2 million, add back Aaron Rodgers $40.7 million (assuming Aaron did not restructure the $58 option in 2023 and $47 M option in 2024) reduce Rashan Gary by $4.5 million - I come up with a new Sub total of $282.7 million.

"12 - Cost of Signing 2024 Draft Picks - Estimated Net $6M - I am going to assume that the Packers are just under .500, that they receive a later pick in the second round from the Jets, that they are awarded a 5th, 6th and two 7th round compensatory picks, and guess that the net cost to sign the 2024 draft class will be about $6M."

In 2023 the Packers currently have 10 picks that Spotrac estimates will cost the Packers $11 Million dollars from $3.136 million for pick #15 to 0.726 million for pick #256. There are currently 64 Packers under contract and the lowest paid 10 are in contract for $750,000 totaling $7.500,000. Thus the difference of replacing the 10 lowest paid Packers with the 10 rookies is an incremental cost of $3.5 million in 2023. Consequently $6 million incremental cost to replace the 12 lowest paid Packers in 2024 with 12 draft choice appears to be about $1.5 million too high even if the difference between the salary cap hit of a late 2nd round choice - say $1.250 M - exceeds your estimated $795K cost of the lowest paid Packers in 2024 and even if 10% inflation in salaries - $350,000 - is added to the incremental 2023 difference of $3.5 million between drafted rookie contracts and lowest paid Packers.

"# 13 Additional Charges for 2023 draft class in 2024 - Net $7.13 M"

The 2023 Packer draft picks Quay Walker through Samouri Toure and their full salary cap hits are already included in Over the Cap table, consequently you are double counting the $7.13 million.

So if I make these 2 adjustments to your #12 (reduce by $1.5 M) and #13 (reduce by $7.13M) and add your "piggy bank" #8, #9, #10, and #11 numbers to my adjusted Subtotal of $282.7 I get calculate approximately $297.2 M salary cap usage which would put the Packers over Over the Cap's $256 M mark necessitating the same restructurings of contracts, extensions of contracts and renegotiated and lowering of salaries and roster bonuses - and some releases of unproductive players where the dead cap hit is less than the salary cap savings - that every NFL team goes through every year. The Packers being about in the middle of the NFL's 32 teams right now in terms of salary cap space in 2023.

"I might acquiesce to using a couple/several million on an offensive weapon to give Jordan Love a fair opportunity,"

As I wrote earlier, Tonyan (Bears 2023 cap hit $2.6 million) , Lazard (Jets 2023 cap hit $3.2 million), were there for the Packers and within the "couple/several million" you state.

What happened?

Packer Management just cheap or did they alienate another 2 Packer veterans by the poor treatment of long time Packers and teammates?

Well Cobb and Lewis are both still unsigned and Cobb was only behind Watson in yards after the catch and 2 drops to Romeo's 9 and each will probably sign one year deals in the $2 to $2.5 million range.

"but the vast majority of that deferred money, if the trade is not executed until June 2, has to be rolled over into 2024. Some sustained discipline will be necessary. If the trade happens before June, the issue will not arise. The Packers' effective cap space for 2023 is still about a negative $3M"

Where are you getting the "negative $3M effective cap space" from for 2023?

The Packers are currently $22.6 million under the salary cap per "Spotrac" and $21.8 million under the cap per "Over the Cap" (both Spotrac and Over the Cap's numbers will need to be adjusted downward probably by $300,000 or so for the net effect of the Leavitt signing) on their first 51 players, which is all the Packers need to account for until September 2023 under NFL salary cap provisions

The Packers are $22.6 million (or $21.8 under) the 2023 salary cap before even considering the approximate $15.8 million more ($31.6 cap hit if Rodgers plays for the Packers in 2023 minus $15.8 cap hit) cap accounting dollars the Packers would save with Packer Management's Ignorant Emotion Driven trade of Rodgers after June 1, 2023.

if Packer Management's Ignorant Emotion Driven trade of Rodgers were to occur before June 1, 2023 the Packers salary cap current surplus of $22.6 million would drop by approximately $9 million ($31 million cap hit assuming Rodgers plays for the Packers in 2023 minus $40M salary cap hit from immediate write off of remainder of 2 past bonsues) to #13.6 million. That's not a negative $3.

"but the vast majority of that deferred money, if the trade is not executed until June 2, has to be rolled over into 2024. Some sustained discipline will be necessary. If the trade happens before June, the issue will not arise."

"The Great Reynoldo", but if you take the $40.3 M salary cap hit before June 2, 2023 rather than just $15.8, that means you will have $24.5 less cap space surplus left in 2023 to rollover into 2024. Consequently, the net salary cap impact in 2024 between the 2 choices of taking a $40.3 salary cap hit in 2023 or taking a $15.8 salary cap hit in 2023 is ZERO.

"As for the UFAs in 2024, so much depends on not just how Nijman, Runyan, Dillon, Nixon, and Deguara play in 2023 (and thus how much they might cost to re-sign), but also on whether players from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 drafts step up. "

"The Great Reynolodo", it is amazing how few of Brian's draft picks from 2018 (11 picks and only 1, Jaire Alexander, still on the roster), 2019 (8 picks and only 3 left on the roster), 2020 (9 picks and only 4 still on the roster), 2021 (9 and just 6 still left) are left. And Rhyan, Jean Charles, Newman and Myers should be gone already and replaced by reliable bets, but once again Packer managements seems to know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.

"As for the UFAs in 2024, so much depends on not just how Nijman, Runyan, Dillon, Nixon, and Deguara play in 2023 (and thus how much they might cost to re-sign), but also on whether players from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 drafts step up. Cutting or trading Bakhtiari to get $21.5M in cap space (or extending him) might be necessary, but it makes letting Nijman walk as a free agent after the 2023 season more difficult. If Runyan has a solid year, he might be in that $7M to $10M AAV area. I do not see how a team can let 3 of their top 7 OL leave in one offseason. Cutting Aaron Jones ($17.17M cap # in 2024) and letting Dillon walk would present a similar dilemma."

Cutting Jones or Bakhtiairi would be more ignorant decisions.

Bakhtiari is an immovable wall - watch him on "All 22/Coaches film".

Dillon had a lot of drops last year after being a very reliable pass catcher the 2 years before. Dillon also appeared a little slow last year but he was getting absolutely no help from Myers - who should be benched or cut (there is some salary space room for you) - and not much from Runyan either - my fellow Packer fan friends and I have the NFL Plus' "All 22"/Coaches film and run back the plays from different angles and Myers gets manhandled and does not sustain his blocks and Runyan is not much better in run blocking and pass blocking wasn't much better.

Nixon is a keeper - one of those top performers that you don't let go.

Nijman was solid when not injured.

Deguara seems to have potential and was a reliable pass catcher and blocker, though not a game breaker/game changer like Donyell Washiington may be in the red zone.

"Restructuring the same player multiple times leads to $40.58M cap numbers for left tackles."

"The Great Reynoldo" left tackles are one of the highest valued positions in the game and David Bakhtiari is one of the best. In addition left tackles normally have long careers often stretching into their late 30s or early 40s, Bakhtiari is but 31 years old Jake Matthews, Trent Williams, Laremy Tunsil, Ronnie Standley and Cam Robinson all have larger 2023 salary cap hits than Bakhtiari and Baktiari's 2024's $40.5 cap hit is composed of $10.7 m salary and $9.5 M roster bonus which be either renegotiated or all be converted to signing bonus spread out over a 4 year contract extension if Bakhtiari - like Gary - shows he is fully recovered from his ACL tear. If Bakhtiari finishes out that 4 year contract the salary cap hit at retirement is zero.

There is a nucleus of top performers that you just do not let go on the hope and prayer that you will find some one half as productive.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 07, 2023 at 06:08 am

Line 1 should indeed read $242.449 rather than $232.449. I have made the adjustment in the article. As noted, the Subtotal under Line 7 was correct as $232M was a typo. Good catch.

Spotrac does indeed list 38 players under contract for 2024, including Tyler Goodson, Benjie Franklin, Jean Delance, Kiondre Thomas, and Austin Allen. They are ERFAs, so the Packers do have their rights but until that right is exercised they are not under contract for 2024. Spotrac also extrapolates those five earning a credited season in 2023 and thus increased their base salaries $915K but that is speculative. As of today, GB has 32 players under contract. That means one needs to add 19 more players, so Line 2 is correct.

Spotrac also included Jordan Love as one of the 38 players under contract for 2024, but until the Packers exercise his 5th year option, he is not under contract for 2024. Indeed, you indicated you would be shocked were the Packers to exercise Love's option. I might have indicated that I added an offset for Love when I added his $20.27M cap number but I also removed an offset when I deducted Rodgers, for a net of zero. Since it didn't change anything, I saw no need to complicate the article further. So, Spotrac had 38 players at $267.746M, but removing Love's $20.27M cap number leaves $247.474M. Removing the five ERFAs who are not in fact under contract (5 times $915M) and we're back to $242M.

As for Line 13, OTC and Spotrac have indeed fully included the scheduled increases for the draft class from Quay Walker to Samori Toure, but that is the 2022 draft class. Here, I have projected the 2023 draft picks and their projected 2024 cap numbers. This is an estimate as we don't even know their names, or the exact picks GB might make. Moreover, some of the draft picks might not make the team in 2023, let alone 2024. After all, GB has four seventh round picks. Line 13 is a reasonable guestimate.

As for the rest of your comment, I read a lengthy comment or two above, four or five copy and paste comments, and now I read some of this one. I do try to be responsive, and I think this is a reasonable effort.

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 07, 2023 at 10:59 pm

TheGreatReynoldo: "Line 1 should indeed read $242.449 rather than $232.449. I have made the adjustment in the article. As noted, the Subtotal under Line 7 was correct as $232M was a typo. Good catch."

Thanks.

TheGreatReynoldo: "Spotrac does indeed list 38 players under contract for 2024, including Tyler Goodson, Benjie Franklin, Jean Delance, Kiondre Thomas, and Austin Allen. They are ERFAs, so the Packers do have their rights but until that right is exercised they are not under contract for 2024. Spotrac also extrapolates those five earning a credited season in 2023 and thus increased their base salaries $915K but that is speculative. As of today, GB has 32 players under contract. That means one needs to add 19 more players, so Line 2 is correct."

Spotrac's Packer player salary cap usage numbers are higher and thus more conservative and show the Packers with less salary cap space than Over the Cap with regard to these 4 players.

As far as speculative, adding Jordan Love as if the Packer Management has exercised their $20 million 5th year option is also speculative. As is assuming the trade of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets or any team until such trades are completed. Just about all of these estimates for 2024 are speculative and either speculatively conservative or speculatively less conservative.

That said, nothing wrong with speculation as long as we recognize much of these future numbers a based on speculation, including your numbers.

TheGreatReynoldo; Spotrac also included Jordan Love as one of the 38 players under contract for 2024, but until the Packers exercise his 5th year option, he is not under contract for 2024. Indeed, you indicated you would be shocked were the Packers to exercise Love's option.

That's correct that is why I did not follow Sportrac's inclusion of the Packers' Jordan Love 5th year option of $20M or your inclusion of the Packers' Jordan Love 5th year option of $20M in the calculations I made.

TheGreatReynoldo: I might have indicated that I added an offset for Love when I added his $20.27M cap number but I also removed an offset when I deducted Rodgers, for a net of zero. Since it didn't change anything, I saw no need to complicate the article further.

I am not sure what you mean here. Jordan Love is not included in the $242 M in your line #1 but is included in your line #3 at $20 M. I don't see any offset. Taking Rodgers $40 M out does not offset leaving Love's $20 in, it decreases the Packer salary cap usage by approximately $20 M.

TheGreatReynoldo:So, Spotrac had 38 players at $267.746M, but removing Love's $20.27M cap number leaves $247.474M. Removing the five ERFAs who are not in fact under contract (5 times $915M) and we're back to $242M.

Yes, but your table includes Jordan Love's $20M and deducts Aaron Rodgers $40 - that is not a "net of zero".

TheGreatReynoldo: As for Line 13, OTC and Spotrac have indeed fully included the scheduled increases for the draft class from Quay Walker to Samori Toure, but that is the 2022 draft class. Here, I have projected the 2023 draft picks and their projected 2024 cap numbers. This is an estimate as we don't even know their names, or the exact picks GB might make. Moreover, some of the draft picks might not make the team in 2023, let alone 2024. After all, GB has four seventh round picks. Line 13 is a reasonable guestimate.

You are correct. I was using 2022's draft class - I should have used 2023's draft class.
That said you are speculating for lines 12 and 13 of your table:

1) the Packers trade with the Jets goes through

2) the Packers receive 2 draft picks from the Jets - #43 in 2023 and a late 2nd round choice in 2024

3) the Packers receive compensatory picks - 5th, 6th and 2 in the 7th.in 2024 for net Packer free agent losses in 2023

TheGreatReynoldo: As for the rest of your comment, I read a lengthy comment or two above, four or five copy and paste comments, and now I read some of this one. I do try to be responsive, and I think this is a reasonable effort.

My most important points are:

1) The sky is not falling for the Packers as to Packer Salary Space Cap as Packer Management is trying to communicate to the Packer Fan Base in order to reduce Packer Fan Expectations. The Packers have the 4th most salary cap space of 32 teams currently both for the first 51 players - which is all that is required to be counted until September 2023 - and all Packer players under contract.

2) Aaron Rodgers salary cap hit numbers for 2023 and 2024, if he were to play for the Packers, is not any the reason for the Sky Falling, since in fact is Sky is not Falling not falling - i.e. the Packer Salary Cap usage in fact 4th lowest of the NFL's 32 teams.

3) Packer Management appear to know the cost of everything but the value of nothing.

4) Aaron Rodgers salary cap hit numbers for 2023 and 2024 if Rodgers were to lay for the Packers are in fact right in line with other to quaterbacks, even lower than some

5) It is not prudent to exercise Jordan Love's $20M 5th year option for 2024 and if Brian and Mark are prudent they will not do so.

6) the most prudent thing for Brian and Mark to do is what I wrote in my original post:

THE GIANTS DID NOT EXERCISE THEIR 5TH YEAR OPTION ON DANIEL JONES LAST MAY AND JONES HAD 36 MORE STARTS THAN JORDAN LOVE AND JONES DID NOT LEAD ALL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL IN NTERCEPTIONS THROWN IN ANY OF HIS 3 YEARS AS DUKE'S STARTER!!!

The calculating "business" thing for Brian and Mark to do - not the morally and ethically and Packer Identity protecting thing to do but the calculating business thing to do - would be to drop the ignorant and emotion driven trade and exercise the option for Aaron's 2025 season by paying Aaron the $58.3 million payment which can then be spread over the life of the remaining 4 year contract and bring Aaron back for 2023-24 and let Jordan compete for the starting job.

Give Jordan the starting job the first few games of the regular season and see how he does.

if Jordan performs better in 2023 than Rodgers did in 2008 (and better than Aaron did in 2022, which was also better than most QBs in the NFL despite the nonsense of some posters on this board), then the calculating "business" minded soulless Brian and Mark can trade Aaron in between the March 15, 2024 season's first day until the September 2024 deadline for the Packers to exercise their option for Aaron's 2026's season when they must pay $47 million to be able to spread that $47 million over the remaining 3 years of the contract.

If Jordan - after 4 years as an NFL QB at a time when most franchise QBs drafted in the first round are starting year one - performs much worse than Aaron did in 2008 (and worse than Aaron did in 2022 which was also better than most QBs despite the nonsense of some posters on this board), then no team in the NFL will be chomping at the bit to sign Jordan Love to a new contract for 2024 going forward and the Packers can look at drafting a QB in 2024, if they have not already drafted one on April 27 or April 28, 2023 that did not lead all of College Football in interceptions.

If you look at the year by year 2000 through 2022 NFL statistics for total QB performance - from Statsmuse -

totals for all 32 teams quarterbacks - you will notice that quarterback performance numbers have improved significantly.

This improvement in QB numbers is in no small measure due to the continuous rule changes to protect quarterbacks and create more offense and scoring.

If you compare 2008 totals for all QBs - Aaron's 1st year as a starter - to 2022's totals for all QBs, you will notice the following:

Passer Rating - has increased 7.1% (Aaron's 93.8% in 2008 would have been 100.4% in 2022)

Pass Attempts per season has increased 9.3% (Aaron's 536 in 2008 would have been 586 in 2022)

Completion Pct. - has increased 5.2% (Aaron's 63.6% in 2008 would have been 66.9% in 2022)

Yards per Attempt - has increased 1.4% (Aaron's 7.5% in 2008 would have been 7.6% in 2022)

Yards per Game - has increased 4.5% (Aaron's 252.4 or 4,038 yards over 16 games in 2008 would have been 263.88 or 4,486 yards over 17 games in 2022)

TD% per pass attempt - has increased 7.6% (Aaron's 5.2 % in 2008 and 28 TD passes would have been 5.6% in 2022 and 32.5 TD passes in 2022)

Interception % per pass attempt: has fallen 17.1% (Aaron's 2.4% in 2008 would have been 1.9% in 2022)

Interceptions: have fallen by 10.2% (Aaron's 13 in 2008 would have fallen to 11.6 in 2022)

Keep these numbers handy as we compare Jordan in his 4th year relative to Aaron in his 4th year in this Ignorant, emotion based Packer Management trade goes through.

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Spawny's picture

April 07, 2023 at 10:52 am

Mr. S-R,

I could have simply written a reply to your diatribe but it is obvious that you dont understand the words respect and nepotism. Where is your respect for my front office? It takes crafty, sneaky manipulation to hire a shill like Thegreatreynaldo and you should appreciate my wisdom.

Furthermore, I take great umbrage with you bashing my nephew Thegreatreynaldo.

Let me also point out to you that living here in the frozen tundra clearly outweighs the seedy, crime infested streets of New York or San Francisco or Baltimore. Free agents certainly understand that there are far more wholesome benefits to living in Green Bay. Afterall we have cornholios, cheeseturds, the best brewed beer. Where else can you take a walk, water your neighbor's flowers and run from a black bear for nightly exercise? Meanwhile in New York you must dodge muggers in Central Park. In Baltimore one must always keep an eye out for syringes lying on the side walks, everyone has a gun and everyone uses a gun to settle disputes. I'll have you know that home owners in San Francisco are fed up with humans crapping on their sidewalks and hippies smoking strange smelling cigarettes. As I said free agents understand that Green Bay is heaven compared to the aforementioned metropolitan hellholes.

Now Mr. S-R these are facts and you will agree to them whether you like it or not. We hired Matt LaFleur and you will stop complaining about him. I hired Rusty Zipper Ball and Brian Grubbyshorts. I am infallible because I am the boss of the Green Bay Packers. Yes, my name is Mark Murphy and I am the man.

Try learning some humility and quit fabricating monetary stats. We have Rusty to do all the fabricating we need. Try learning some humility and learn how to evaluate third round picks. We have Grubby to evaluate the third round. I think it is apparent that we have the second coming of Vince Lombardi in our outstanding coach Matt LaFleur? And as for me "I have a secret...I know nothing...err I know everything.

Now if you will excuse me I need to grab my fishing pole and go hook Mr. Waldo E. Eyeball.

Sincerely Mark Murphy

If you build it, they will come.

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 07, 2023 at 11:07 pm

Funny, thanks Mark (Murphy).

What does the trade of Rodgers to the Jets do for projected 2023-24 NFL Television Viewers both in the New York Market and Nationally?

When are the gambling kiosks coming on board at Lambeau?

Is Lambeau Field really to be renamed Twitter Field or Amazon Park?

Any sales of the team to Billionaire Parasites being considered?

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 07, 2023 at 11:13 pm

It is interesting how people here parrot the propaganda and "talking points" Packer Management feeds to them and read to them.

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

Like a bewildered heard of lemmings and an angry mob they drink it down.

How about doing your own independent research and making some comparisons with other teams.

The Sky is not Falling.

The Packers actually have the 4th most cap space in the NFL,

And that is including the playing $31.6 cap hit of Aaron Rodgers - one year removed from leading all 32 teams' starting QBS in passer rating, a composite of completion %, interception %, touchdowns per pass attempt, and yards per pass attempt, not once but 2 years in a row and one year removed form 2 consecutive MVPs as well!!

And the Packers have the 4th most cap space in the NFL not only in terms of first 51 players, which is all that matters until September 2023:

Bears $38.3
Panthers $27.2
Lions $24.0
Packers $22.6
Texan $22.5
Least Cap Space:
Vikings $1.1

and also 4th most cap space in the NFL in terms of total players:

Bears $27.7 (64 players signed)
Panthers $19.0M (62 players signed)
Rams $13.4M (45 players signed)
Packers $12.6M (65 players signed)
Lions $8.7M (70 players signed)
Least Cap Space
Commanders -17.2 (75 players signed)

Google 2023 salary cap by team.

Try Over the Cap or Spotrac.

The Packers are 12 months removed from 13-3, 13-3, and 13-4 seasons.

They are also the 9th youngest team in the entire NFL.

Team age:
Rams 25.91
Titans 26.15
Browns 26.25
Giants 26.24
Colts 26.24
Chiefs 26.24
Bears 26.25
Bengals 26.27
Packers 26.29

Oldest Team:
Patriots 27.59

Rebuilding, cap hell, blah blah blah.

And Packer Management is destroying the team out of ignorance and emotion and their hurt egos because their quarterback is more truthful and intelligent and communicative than they are.

In the 2028 season the Packers then 2 time MVP breaks the all time NFL record for fewest interceptions by a QB attempting 500 passes in a season

The next season the Packers then 2 time MVP once again surpasses all Quarterbacks in NFL history and finishes 2nd - behind his own 2018 record setting performance - for fewest interceptions by a Quarterback attempting 500 or more passes, with 4 interceptions.

And what does GM Brian and President Mark do following Aaron's 2nd record breaking season for protecting the football?

They draft the quarterback that in the season he has just completed led all of college football in interceptions - giving the ball away.

And they trade up in the first round giving up their 30th pick and 136th pick (4th round. Rams tight end Brycen Hopkins) to move to slot 26 to get him!!
.

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