What are realistic expectations for Jordan Love in 2023?
By rex.sheild
Expectations shape perception in sports, to a great extent. If fans and media hype a player up and that player does not deliver relative to expectations, the player is no good in the public’s eye, generally speaking anyway. On the contrary, if a player flies under the radar and has his bar set low by the fans and the media, only for him to outperform relative to expectations, that completely changes the narrative.
Entering his first year as a starter after sitting on the bench for the past three seasons, quarterback Jordan Love has massive shoes to fill. There is no denying that nor is there any way around that. He is, after all, replacing a four-time MVP and one of the best quarterbacks to play the game. Thus, what are realistic expectations for Love in his first year as QB1?
It may be best to look at how Rodgers did during his first year as a starter after replacing Brett Favre. The 25-year-old played in all 16 games of the 2008 season and completed 63.6% of his passes for 4,038 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He also registered a passer rating of 93.8, with an Adjusted Yards gained for pass attempt (AY/A) of 7.5. How did those numbers stack up with the other quarterbacks in 2008? Quite well.
- Yards/game: 6th
- Completion percentage: 10th
- Touchdowns: 4th
- Interceptions: 8th
- Passer rating: 6th
- AY/A: t6th
So, Rodgers was definitely an above-average quarterback based on important QB metrics, with interceptions being the only stat bringing him down slightly. What helped Rodgers the most were his weapons on the outside. He had three players with at least five receiving touchdowns (TE Donald Lee, WR Donald Driver, and WR Greg Jennings) and had two wide receivers with at least 1,000 receiving yards (Driver: 1,012 yards; Jennings: 1,292). Rookie WR Jordy Nelson also chipped in 33 receptions for 366 yards and two scores. And while the rushing attack was a one-man show, Ryan Grant ran for over 1,200 yards.
One thing that should lighten Love’s load in 2023 is the Packers’ backfield tandem. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for almost 1,900 rush yards and over 600 receiving yards in 2022. Will they replicate that production in 2023?
Unlike Rodgers’ receiving options in 2008, I would be hard-pressed to see the Packers having two wide receivers with at least 1,000 receiving yards. A season ago, the Packers did not have a single player register over 1,000 yards, and the only player that came close was Allen Lazard (788), who is no longer on the team and joined forces with Rodgers in New York. In fact, three of the top-five players in terms of receiving yards in 2022 are no longer on the team. Do I expect Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to take a jump? Yes, but it would be a considerable jump for both of them to produce at least 1,000 receiving yards.
Given the youth in the tight end and wide receiver rooms, I think the expectation for Love next season is for him to be a top-15 quarterback next season. Let’s look at five quarterbacks to give a realistic range of the play that we might see from Love this season.
Trevor Lawrence (17 games)
- Yards/game: 241.9 (12th)
- Completion percentage: 66.3% (13th)
- Touchdowns: 25 (10th)
- Interceptions: 8 (20th)
- Passer rating: 95.2 (10th)
- AY/A: 7.3 (11th)
Aaron Rodgers (17 games)
- Yards/game: 217.4 (18th)
- Completion percentage: 64.6% (20th)
- Touchdowns: 26 (7th)
- Interceptions: 12 (9th)
- Passer rating: 91.1 (t15th)
- AY/A: 6.8 (20th)
Derek Carr (15 games)
- Yards/game: 234.8 (15th)
- Completion percentage: 60.8% (29th)
- Touchdowns: 24 (12th)
- Interceptions: 14 (t2nd)
- Passer rating: 86.3 (24th)
- AY/A: 6.7 (22nd)
Mac Jones (14 games)
- Yards/game: 214.1 (20th)
- Completion percentage: 65.2% (16th)
- Touchdowns: 14 (25th)
- Interceptions: 11 (t8th)
- Passer rating: 84.8 (26th)
- AY/A: 6.3 (26th)
Dak Prescott (12 games)
- Yards/game: 238.3 (13th)
- Completion percentage: 66.2% (14th)
- Touchdowns: 23 (13th)
- Interceptions: 15 (t1st)
- Passer rating: 91.1 (t15th)
- AY/A: 6.7 (22nd)
Head coach Matt LaFleur and general manager Brian Gutekunst will have the next two seasons, perhaps only one depending on how 2023 goes, of evaluating Love to decide whether the Utah State product is the long-term answer at quarterback. Their expectations for him may go a helluva long way.
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Rex is a lifelong Packers fan but was sick of the cold, so he moved to the heart of Cowboys country. Follow him on Twitter (@Sheild92) and Instagram (@rex.sheild).
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Comments (111)
T7Steve
May 15, 2023 at 12:14 pm
An average QB with a good team is going to be a winner. What kind of complete team can the Packers put around Love?
He proved in school that he can be very productive with a good team. With a poor team, after losing his receivers the next year, not so much.
I think he'll be better than average, and best in the NFC North.
T7Steve
May 15, 2023 at 12:14 pm
Tried to edit. Bad coaching!
TheVOR
May 15, 2023 at 08:12 pm
He’s in YEAR 4 PEOPLE. If he doesn’t have “IT” We need to move on and find the next NFL QB. If he was a first, or even 2nd year player, it would be different. If he’s not ready, he’s never going to be. JMO.
Bure9620
May 15, 2023 at 08:46 pm
Agreed. Love just needs to take care of the football, take what is there. Honestly my bigger concern is the offensive line. Bahk has a bionic knee, Meyers has been very inconsistent and Nijman is fine, an average player but really should be a swing tackle. He is a great fire extinguisher in an emergency but not a starter. I hope they find a way to get Zach Tom on the field. If the O-line plays well, we move the ball. Love will be atleast average.
greengold
May 15, 2023 at 12:19 pm
Getting the ball snapped with more than 1 second on the play clock is a good place to start.
BAMABADGER
May 15, 2023 at 01:00 pm
Amen on the play clock. That alone should keep Love on his feet and the OL happy that the DL doesn’t just tee-off. My concern still remains whether a true HC/OC-play call genius emerges or MLF is nothing more than a GQ, Head cheerleader. In Love’s one start when MLF had a week to prepare (Chiefs in 2021) his play calls against a constant blitz was a pitiful effort. In spite of the offensive play calls, the D’s effort and an inexperienced, yet combative Love kept the game in question until late. I can’t wait for the season to begin. GPG!
T7Steve
May 15, 2023 at 01:34 pm
Extended drives with lots of plays. YES! We won a lot of times of possession battles last season, but were we having more offensive plays? I know we wasted more time outs
We were very efficient with the hurry up O. We only used it when we had to.
I love keeping the Ds hurrying to sub players and getting winded. Do you see a problem with that strategy?
greengold
May 15, 2023 at 02:13 pm
BAMA!!! That was a complete dereliction of duty as HC by LaFleur that day. He admitted as much in his post game comments.
KC had the worst run D in the NFL to that point. LaFleur mailing in the typical AR pass happy gameplan was a disservice to his QB Jordan Love in his first NFL start ever.
Lazy. Lacking foresight. Poor. LaFleur did own up to that.
He's going to spend the rest of his tenure here making amends to Jordan Love. That's my guess. They should fare pretty well together, given LaFleur couldn't have a more perfect player at QB to run his scheme.
DoubleJ
May 15, 2023 at 02:39 pm
"In Love’s one start when MLF had a week to prepare (Chiefs in 2021) his play calls against a constant blitz was a pitiful effort."
That game was on Nov 7th and Rodgers tested positive on Nov 3rd. The game plan was already set by then so hard to change that mid week.
In 2020 we did see more of LaFluer's offense and Rodgers had his best year. However, Rodgers didn't like the lack of hero ball that he could play and reverted in 2021/22.
BAMABADGER
May 15, 2023 at 05:11 pm
WHAT!!! "That game was on Nov 7th and Rodgers tested positive on Nov 3rd. The game plan was already set by then so hard to change that mid week."
I was going to be ugly and write a diatribe about perhaps your lack of business leadership experience and most definitely football. Let's just say a business, football, and especially battle plan is made to be modified/thrown away as situations change. 4 days advanced notice, I would not have wanted you as any soldiers battle commander. MLF was an ill-prepared on-field manager on that day. Several commenters on this site (me included) voice this skillset as a major weakness. Hopefully he can learn from those mistakes. This year and it sounds like 2024 will tell.
Oppy
May 15, 2023 at 05:25 pm
On a travel week, that's not 4 days to completely flip a game plan.
That's two dressed practices, tops.
None the less, MLF should have cut back the gameplan regardless, as Love was essentially pretending to be Mahomes and running KC plays all week up to the point where Rodgers tested positive.
The positive side of the KC game is that Love, while he started off shaky, showed improvement throughout the game, exhibited a great grasp of the offense, and made some pretty damn good decisions considereding the circumstances (like having his first NFL start fall unexpectedly on a short week
in one of the hardest stadiums for visitors to play in, while under an almost never-seen percentage of 0 blitzes in an NFL game.)
greengold
May 15, 2023 at 09:20 pm
Yeah. Changing to a more run heavy game plan not only wouldn’t have been too difficult last minute, but, it should have been the game plan all along with AR starting, facing a train wreck of a run D.
It was piss poor coaching by LaFleur and he knows it. Admitted as much afterwards.
dobber
May 16, 2023 at 08:55 am
It has been an ongoing problem for this team to spend its time throwing against teams with obvious and glaring issues stopping the run.
Whether that's a function of calls at the LOS by the ex-QB1 or just another example of how this coaching staff tries to outsmart itself, I don't know.
greengold
May 16, 2023 at 10:18 am
dobber, these very problems are widespread throughout the NFL and have been for decades.
The "Offensive Genius," status became en vogue long before Mike McCarthy even dreamt of becoming a coach. Bill Walsh & Don Coryell were the two big transformers of the game as offensive masterminds, and the godfathers of the WCO.
How many times have we Packer fans witnessed HC's becoming enamored with the passing game while forgetting about running the football? Walsh didn't. Coryell didn't.
The one in Green Bay who NEVER forgot that, and demanded his QB hand the ball off was Mike Holmgren. Dorsey & Edgar. William Henderson clearing the way.
For decades I've felt our HCs were making the game more difficult than it needs to be. RUN THE ROCK.
Rebelgb
May 16, 2023 at 12:10 pm
Excellent post, spot on. The reason for the change in direction is due to philosophical change in strategy by most teams. I say "teams" and not coaches because the adopted emphasis on game analytics had a lot to do with it. If not the primary reason why.
Analytics state that the team who has the most touches has the best chance to win.
Teams then decided running the ball took too much time off the clock and limited the chances on offense. Forget that if you keep the ball you also limit the other teams chances.
greengold
May 17, 2023 at 11:45 am
If Matt LaFleur doesn't run the F outta the ROCK this season, he's off my good list. LIKE, FOREVER.
There's no need for that man to destroy his career falling into that trap. Might as well be Mike Sherman then.
Matt, just fucking RUN THE ROCK!!! You'll win, - multiple - Lombardi Trophies.
RUN TO DAYLIGHT!!!
Since'61
May 17, 2023 at 12:27 pm
The problems have been first the rule changes that favor the passing game and secondly the analytics which support passing more often within the current rules. The league wanted to attract more fans, specifically the casual fans and the gamblers.
First they opened up the rules to facilitate the passing game and more scoring. Then they made deals with the Fantasy leagues and the gambling venues and here we are. I'm afraid that at some point down the road the NFL will look very similar to professional Wrestling!!! or maybe even Jai -Alai. All show, all noise, all stupidity and no substance. Great for the gamblers, everyone routing for individual players and fantasy teams rather than for actual home town or regional teams.
I will be gone by then and probably sooner if the league continues down their current path. The fact that the league is already considering Friday games and Tuesday games is not sitting too well with me as it is now. What kind of integrity can the league maintain if they have a schedule that is chaos for the players and the fans? How is that conducive to improving player safety? How is the current flex games fair to fans who have paid for travel to see games only to have the game moved to a different day? Thanks, Since '61
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:03 am
Might as well give up on half-time adjustments than I guess!
:)
pack69go
May 15, 2023 at 08:59 pm
there is no substitute for game experience!!!
pack69go
May 15, 2023 at 08:59 pm
there is no substitute for game experience!!!
pack69go
May 15, 2023 at 08:59 pm
there is no substitute for game experience!!!
dobber
May 16, 2023 at 08:34 am
...just like there's no substitute for a non-sticky submit key! ;)
Grandfathered
May 18, 2023 at 12:30 am
True, but AR had success in drawing offsides and free plays when he ran the clock down. He would yell a hike at 1.5 seconds and then wait till .5 seconds and have the center hike the ball, drawing the penalty. But too many times it resulted in wasted timeouts.
mnbadger
May 15, 2023 at 12:23 pm
I think the fairest way to judge JL (at the end of the year only) is his comparison to his peers for upcoming season.
15 or better would have to be considered a total success.
22 or less would start making me nervous.
Remember, virtually all other starting QB's were also first round picks, most were in the top 10 or so picks.
Especially valuable to compare to interdivision foes, as they'll have faced similar schedules.
Comparing to ghosts of the past, when many critical phases of the game were very different, isn't fair. Not for the ghosts, not for today's players.
GPG!
TKWorldWide
May 15, 2023 at 07:17 pm
15 or better, 22 or less…you mean in ranking, right?
mnbadger
May 16, 2023 at 12:27 pm
yes, sorry. GPG!
Since'61
May 15, 2023 at 12:26 pm
An inexperienced QB with an inexperienced receiving corps will most likely have difficulties early in the season.
I’m expecting Love to be inconsistent for the first half of the season. However, I believe that as the season progresses and Love gets more snaps with his receiving corps he will become more consistent and grow into the position.
This season should be a honeymoon season for Love. Next season expectations will be higher and 2024 will be a prove it season Love. Thanks, Since ‘61
Since'75
May 15, 2023 at 01:01 pm
^Realistic tempered expectations^
That's what i love about 61's comments.
They are based on knowledge, wisdom, and common sense.
10ve 💚
May 15, 2023 at 02:33 pm
Well 75, he's got 14 years on you 😊
Since'61
May 15, 2023 at 04:59 pm
PewaukeeFan - Yes, and it's getting to that time where I'm looking for the rewind button. Thanks, Since '61
Since'75
May 16, 2023 at 12:52 am
I've been looking for the rewind button since the Seattle game. from middle to upper management.
I decided since that NFCCG i would just bide my time. NEVER thought i'd still be waiting this long..lol
Although i can't remember the last time i missed a Packer game, i just try to find entertainment however it shows up.
Hi Pewaukeefan, that's 14 years wiser.
My old stomping grounds PF, Five Fields Subdivision. I miss Rosati's!!! 😣
TKWorldWide
May 16, 2023 at 07:22 am
Pewaukee also has a sweet lake and beach!
Since'61
May 17, 2023 at 12:13 pm
I appreciate your generous thoughts. Thanks, Since '61
dobber
May 16, 2023 at 08:36 am
Run the offense...
Take care of the football...
Make the plays that are there to be made...
Play within himself.
Since'61
May 17, 2023 at 12:11 pm
Bingo! Cookie for Dobber. Thanks, Since '61
Since'75
May 15, 2023 at 12:58 pm
Excellent article Rex (topic and content)
I think to an extent, Love is getting a raw deal starting his first season.
The reasons are fairly obvious.
I've commented for years how the WR/TE room is getting depleted of talent.
It came to a head last season after Adams left and we had to rely on a couple of rookie draft picks for production.
That isn't an ideal position for success, and i scratch my head wondering why Gute let it get to that point.
So now Gute/Love are faced with a wide receiver core that has amassed a total of 1,118 yards (career yards total). That's the total of the 8 wide receivers signed.
Five of those receivers have never caught an NFL pass.
For tight ends.....the Packers have Austin Allen, Tyler Davis, Josiah Deguara, Nick Guggemos, Tucker Kraft, Camren McDonald, Luke Musgrave.
Those tight ends have a total of 432 CAREER yards, 5 of which, have never caught an NFL pass.
I realize i'm not an NFL GM, i'm just Joe 6 Pack Packer fan, but i'm going to go out on a limb and say this isn't the best situation for a 1st round QB starting his first game when there are better than average expectations out of Love this season.
I'm guessing that MLF will not utilize the full playbook with so much inexperience, as he will keep it simple for awhile while these players learn the playbook and get up to speed.
As Rex Shield contemplates, the Packer offense will most likely give the backs heavy duty to simple up the play calling for awhile.
If anyone thinks last season was a work in progress, hold on to your hat.
I feel bad for Love putting him in this position to start his career. He doesn't have the weapons as Rodgers did in his first season, which Rex correctly mentioned.
Rex mentioned Rodgers 13 interceptions in his first season.
Keep in mind that 13 picks is Rodgers high point in his 15 years starting.
He's only had double digit interceptions in 3 seasons, 13,11,12 respectfully.
Try to find ANY QB who can claim that.
I hope Love can show well this season despite this handicap.
We should still be able to see how he handles pressure and blitzes, as well as how he is reading defenses and going through his progressions.
No matter what happens this season, i'm giving Love a bit of a pass considering the state of his pass catching core.
This is not to say (at all), that some of the Packer pass catchers don't have talent, or some won't emerge to be stars.
We don't know yet, they are all young and need experience on the field.
Like Love, they need to prove themselves on the field, like every other player in the NFL.
GO PACK GO!!
TKWorldWide
May 15, 2023 at 07:28 pm
Can’t argue that the receiving corps is young and untested.
BUT they do have good running backs and an above average offensive line. If GB had flashy receivers but a weak line and/or no running game, we’d bemoan that.
Another direction (which has not panned out, yet) is the concentration of premium picks on defense. Imagine if all had turned out as expected, JL would be taking the helm of a team with a dominant D (yes, with 8 1st rounders, they should dominate, not just be middle of the pack), a good line, a good running game, and talented but green receivers. Hard to find a single team that is top 5 in all phases.
But I am glad to see that most of us here seem to agree that patience and perspective are required.
GPG!
Since'75
May 16, 2023 at 01:03 am
The WR/TE room has slowly been going downhill ever since 2018 and the signing of Jimmy Graham.
Remember when we were wondering who the #2 receiver was after Adams?
If memory serves one year it turned out to be Aaron Jones.
Now after Adams left we were wondering who was the #1 receiver is. Well it turned out to be Lazard, and lets be honest here, Lazard is not a #1 receiver, in anyone's imagination..
That's how bad it's gotten.
I'm not going to forgive that because our O line has held up (debatable), or because Aaron Jones has mad skills.
The pass catching room is where it is because it's been ignored and/or mismanaged.
That may hurt some people's feelings, but that doesn't make it untrue.
Yes, it's hard to find a team that is top 5 in all phases, but were the Packers top 5 in any phase?
TKWorldWide
May 16, 2023 at 07:31 am
Top 5 in any phase…good question! I think running backs/running game and pass pro.
Oh, and how in the world could I forget special teams?? (Not saying they’re top 5 unless it’s due to Nixon’s return abilities.) But that’s just ANOTHER phase a team has to account for.
Remember when 12 broke his collarbone and missed all those games? Suddenly EVERYBODY was saying, “See? I TOLD YOU they’d pay for not having a top-flight backup QB!”
Since'75
May 16, 2023 at 09:27 am
The Packers were 15th in rushing.
They were 1st in Kickoff return yards. They had (by far) the most kickoff returns in the league (not a good thing)
Kick off return average the Packers were tied for 4th, Punt returns the middle of the league
Detroit was 3rd in kickoffs average and 1st in punt return average.
The 3-14 Bears were 2nd in kickoff average, so they had that going for them.
TKWorldWide
May 16, 2023 at 09:47 am
I didn’t mean stats from last year. I was thinking more along the lines of how talented they are, or where they would rank going forward. Strengths and weaknesses.
I do wonder what 12’s impact on the running game was. I think it’s widely believed that he frequently checked out of runs in favor of the pass. But! How often were those adjustments successful? Maybe at least some of the time he checked out of runs that would have been stuffed.
Since'75
May 16, 2023 at 01:50 pm
Yea TK...i find it more useful to check on past performance, than speculate future performance.
Like when everyone said we had a top 5 elite defense before last season.
Speculation is a fools game.
I'll speculate though just for fun 😁, i think they'll run the ball more this season, including Love running (planned or unplanned).
It keeps the offense simple, it reduces the exposure for Love on pressures and blitzes.
These guys are all young and green, and the run game is the perfect tool until the guys get more NFL situated and n'sync and then MLF can open up a full playbook.
There will be a learning curve, no doubt.
That's what i would do anyway.
Not that they won't pass it. i think they'll look to get the ball in Watsons hands in short to intermediate passes and hope he runs north into the end zone like that 64 yarder last season.
I also want to see these new tight ends and see what they can do. It will be entertaining that's for sure TK.
TKWorldWide
May 16, 2023 at 02:58 pm
Exact same page, amigo.
dobber
May 16, 2023 at 08:39 am
"I'm guessing that MLF will not utilize the full playbook with so much inexperience, as he will keep it simple for awhile while these players learn the playbook...I feel bad for Love putting him in this position to start his career. He doesn't have the weapons as Rodgers did in his first season, which Rex correctly mentioned."
The key supporting pieces are all at least in year 2 (Watson, Doubs, Jones), and Love's in year 4. He should know the reads and the guys who will play most played plenty of snaps last year and should be well developed in figuring those things out, too. They've practiced together plenty.
Run the offense. Be smart with the football.
I would say the biggest questions will be the TEs and whether THEY need things scaled back, or can step pretty directly into what they'll be asked to do.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:12 am
Since,
A big Jordan Love fan here who truly believes he is going to ball out in 2023. Having said that....I think everyone is overblowing the Jordan Love inexperienced stuff. He is going into year 4! No excuses!
Certainly there will be some jittery behavior in maybe 1 or 2 games. Maybe.......
Yes, the WR's & TE's are young & inexperienced......so what! No excuses! Certainly there will be some trial & error situations as the whole plays together and experiences some success. My expectations is that Jordan Love exceeds Aaron Rodgers performance in 2022. To me....that would be a very worthwhile goal and a good measuring stick. Aaron Rodgers is/was a good QB, but it has been 20+ games since he threw for 300 yards. He has not been a major difference maker for some time. He cannot scramble and get away from pressure, and he cannot use his legs to pick-up first downs. At the end of the year, everyone needs to fully evaluate Jordan Love and take into account his legs & mobility in addition to just his arm.
Measurement:
Aaron Rodgers (17 games) in 2022
Yards/game: 217.4 (18th)
Completion percentage: 64.6% (20th)
Touchdowns: 26 (7th)
Interceptions: 12 (9th)
Passer rating: 91.1 (16th)
AY/A: 6.8 (20th)
Jordan....NO f--cking excuses......just go out and ball out! Believe me.....Jordan will just let it rip and is not going to use his lack of NFL playing experience as an excuse. In many ways, his lack of playing experience is a positive as many defensive coordinators will not know how to defend him, or the new Packer offense.
Since'75
May 18, 2023 at 12:14 pm
@Knock....
Rodgers has not been a major difference maker for (some time)?
Like a year?
Wasn't he MVP before last season, and the previous season.
Instead of comparing 24 year old Love to 39 year old Rodgers 2022 season, why not compare Love to 24 year old Rodgers 2008 season?
4,038 yards, 28 TD's 13 picks, and a 93.8 passer rating.
NO EXCUSES
J-Rome
May 15, 2023 at 01:00 pm
I would just like to see steady improvement, especially in the red zone. In the limited time we have seen with Love he has been been able to move the ball, but he has trouble in the red zone. If that continues we will probably see a lot of field goals this year. Maybe our tight end additions will help open up that red zone offense for him a little.
T7Steve
May 15, 2023 at 01:09 pm
The Packers were horrible in the red zone last season no matter who was QB. You can't get pushed around on the LOS and expect satisfactory results.
They HAVE to change that culture (on both sides of the ball). How many times did we punch the ball in with a run last season?
J-Rome
May 15, 2023 at 01:48 pm
Agreed, They rarely tried to run the ball in the red zone. If that changes do the results change? It will be interesting to see if Rodgers or LaFleur was the one getting too cute. Love is probably much less likely to check out of running plays.
T7Steve
May 15, 2023 at 02:18 pm
Even if they aren't successful running, they have to have the push and capability to keep a Ds honest. That opens up the runs AND the passes. I think they will.
murf7777
May 15, 2023 at 04:39 pm
"They rarely tried to run the ball in the red zone. If that changes do the results change?"
That's the big questions, I believe it is more about execution. KC and GB were both very high at passing% in the red zone. Obviously, Kc was very effective and not as much for GB.
I'm also not sure what you feel rarely means. In 2020, GB was basically 50/50 or about average and in 2021 it went up to 59/41. Couldn't find anything yet for 2022. Should they be running the ball 65-75% in the RZ in your opinion?
Since'75
May 16, 2023 at 01:26 am
I can see then scheming some running plays for Love.
Love has by far, one greater skill than Rodgers, and that's running the ball.
Most people don't have their legs anymore at 39, and Rodgers is no exception.
We may see Love doing a lot of running depending how he's progressed in handling pressure and reading his progressions.
murf7777
May 16, 2023 at 07:49 am
That’s an interesting take. I agree, once upon a time one of Rodgers bigger strengths was his legs, not so much anymore. It will be fun to see how Love uses his to help him succeed.
dobber
May 16, 2023 at 08:57 am
Love is often described as "athletic" but that doesn't necessarily make him a running QB. Rodgers was never really a running QB...he was mobile and had outstanding pocket presence, but he wasn't a runner. If you look at Love's track record in college, he profiles more as a pocket passer with the ability to move.
TKWorldWide
May 15, 2023 at 07:37 pm
Do they have the horses to play that way? I always hear how athletic and mobile their linemen are. How about living in the weight room and packing on some beef this offseason? To the point that they can just mash straight ahead on short yardage and on the goal-line? I would LOVE to see that!
dobber
May 16, 2023 at 08:32 am
I would argue power-gap play is as much about mindset as it is about beef.
...but then, so is jerky.
dobber
May 16, 2023 at 08:49 am
I can't like this enough. When you score 7s, you put a lot of pressure on other teams to take chances and score 7s to keep up. When you score 7s and limit possessions--which is what this Packers offense is predicated on--the pressure goes up even more.
Turophile
May 15, 2023 at 01:28 pm
Yep, steady improvement, that is a big key.
The other big deal is if JL can look good in his second year as starter, when opposing defensive coordinators have had plenty of time to study film of him.
Since'75
May 16, 2023 at 01:31 am
Lets see how he looks in his first year before we worry about his second year. 😮
I'm not drinking the kool aid on Love just yet. 6 pass completions against the Eagles in the 4th quarter, 14 points down against soft coverage does not a QB make.
Just sayin.
Since'75
May 16, 2023 at 01:56 pm
AWE 😢
Do i want to see Love prove it on the field?
Boy, i'm mean!! 😬
Fine!
Love is an ALL-PRO QB who is a first ballot HOF'er!! 😎
Is that better kids?....lol
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 15, 2023 at 03:08 pm
If they want to improve in the red zone, getting back to using Aaron Jones is a big step. He had 25 rushing tds in 2019 and 2020. IIRC, they had the best redzone offense in football those years. They were so good they called it the "Gold Zone." Well, Jones has just 6 rushing tds since then and the Gold Zone became nothing more than a memory. The solution seems pretty simple to me. Of course adding 2 monster tight ends doesnt hurt either.
greengold
May 16, 2023 at 02:19 am
We need this. ^^^^^^
dobber
May 16, 2023 at 08:59 am
We also spent a lot of time asking why Dillon didn't get snaps in the gold zone--he did last year and got stuffed a lot.
...but he also scored a career high 7 rushing TDs.
Jgilmor08
May 15, 2023 at 09:09 pm
I wouldn’t hold your breath. Let’s see a HOF QB coming off back to back MVPs couldn’t excel in the red zone with this roster. You are hoping to see an improvement with an inexperienced QB and rookies aplenty littering the field. Love moving the ball came against defenses a) playing soft with two score leads b) unscouted and un prepared defenses. Wait until there’s film of him that defenses can watch and prepare for. Then you’ll know if this guy can play QB in the NFL.
Here’s my predicted stat line for Jordan Loves first season as quarterback. 4,100 yards 62.5% comp percentage 18 touchdowns 21 interceptions. Packers finish season 6-11. He will show improvement but probably not until late season. Just enough for the team to look into bringing him back for another season.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 16, 2023 at 12:39 am
Its not an apples to apples comparison. Rodgers failed last year while playing the game his way and expecting everyone else to adapt to him and his complex on-the-fly offense. And lets also not forget, he flat out didnt play well. 21 straight games without 300 yards and that dates back to when he still had Adams and MVS. That wont be the case this year. 21 interceptions? Cmon man.
Jgilmor08
May 16, 2023 at 11:01 am
Cmon man what? Are you honestly so biased in your belief on the fodder you’ve been fed? Where was Rodgers a poor teammate? What offensive playbook was he running that no one else had access to? The guy has gotten trashed because he didn’t get vaccinated end of story. I’m using pure subjective information to make my predictions. Rodgers threw to rookies and undrafted free agents. Jordan love threw 17 ints in 13 games against the mountain west. No not the SEC the mountain west. That was his last collegiate season. An average of 1.3 int per game. Over 17 games that’s 22.
Alas your interpretation of Rodgers not playing well is just barely missing out on a 100 qb rating for the season. 27 touchdowns plus 2 rushing vs 12 int is id say 23-24 quarterbacks career year or aspirations of a great season. This was achieved despite mediocre play calling and a front office unwilling to help in any way. One TE was Rodgers age. The other an UDFA. Two rookie receivers plus Randall Cobb. No one is scared of that lineup. This is why PFF rated the Packers as the 27th rated roster in football. It’s going to be clear as day when season rolls around. I’d love to be wrong but this is simply setting Love up to fail. A HOF qb had his worst statistical season of career off of back to back MVPs with a slightly better roster barely missing the playoffs. You think Love will over achieve with a worst one and zero experience? Cmon man.
Since'61
May 17, 2023 at 01:09 pm
TBSH - I think that you meant to post 12 rather 21 interceptions.
If you did mean 21 interceptions you should note that Rodgers threw 21 interceptions over 3 seasons;
5 -in 2020.
4 - in 2021
12 - in 2022.
During those 3 seasons he also threw for 111 TD passes.
48 - in 2020
37 - in 2021
26 - in 2022.
That is 111/21 TD interception ratio or more accurately a 5.3 to 1 TD to int. ratio. If so, I'm confident that the Packers would be thrilled if Love can provide that effective of a TD/Int ratio over the next 3 seasons.
I agree that Rodgers did not play well in 2022 but the fact is that he should not have played for 4-5 games in 2022. The HC should not have allowed him to play and should have put Love in to start the games while Rodgers was injured. That decision by Matt LaChooch probably cost the Packers the chance to reach that playoffs last season. This is assuming that Gute was truthful when he announced that Love was ready to play during last season. If Love was not ready to play we will find out once the 2023 regular season begins. Thanks, Since '61
Jgilmor08
May 21, 2023 at 09:38 pm
Tbh I think you are the one who misunderstood the topic of conversation. Why would I be suggesting Rodgers throwing 22 int on a season? I’m not Skip Bayless where spouting something stupid hopefully gets me views or clicks. I’m talking about Jordan Love throwing 22 int this upcoming season. He averaged 1.3 int per game against mediocre kid major mountain west during a down year for the conference. I think that translates into the far more capable opponents picking on him and making him pay for mistakes. I don’t have confidence in his ability to protect the ball. If needing an example please refer to Detroit last game two seasons ago and KC game he started.
During collegiate career two seasons he threw as many int and touchdowns. There was only one year where he played exceptional and he had loads of talent around him. That is a perfect segue into my belief that the front office has done nothing to help him succeed. If Aaron Rodgers can’t bring this roster to playoffs do people genuinely think someone with less aptitude, more turn over prone, poor roster, lesser arm strength and ability will do more than a HOFer?
As for Packers making playoffs if they bench Rodgers? Again front office. Trade deadline comes and goes and while everyone brings in top talent including TJ Hockenson infra division at a position of need is beyond a joke. Not taking the bye week after that Europe trip was another dumb choice. Not giving Barry an ultimatum earlier in the season. Just look at the Badgers football team. Remember when every one always said they can’t recruit receivers. Can’t recruit QBs. Can’t bring in top notch talent. When you shake out of the status quo things happen. As it currently stands this organization has had 30 years of HOF quarterback play yet two superbowls. The front office approach will continue to hold the entire organization back with its outdated POVs.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:15 am
JL has not played with a pre-planned offensive game plan, nor has he had the TE's & WR's he has not. Jordan has very good legs to pick-up yards when a play goes belly up. He will be fine!
stockholder
May 15, 2023 at 01:04 pm
NO Excuses!
Since'75
May 15, 2023 at 01:13 pm
No excuses huh?
Harsh
Just curious stockholder....
What are your expectations for this team this season...
8 wins? 12 wins, win the Division and NFC Title?
Playoffs and Super (Gulp) Bowl?
stockholder
May 15, 2023 at 01:35 pm
7 wins No Title.
IMO the Lions will win the Division.
Qb,OL, WRs, TE now, DL.
They will be one and done.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 15, 2023 at 01:47 pm
Says the guy who continues to make every excuse for the highest paid player ever.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:16 am
SH,
In this instance I agree!
No excuses! Doesn't mean though the Packers & Love are going to be world beaters this year, however I really do not want to see excuses either. We all know this is the youngest team in the league and they need experience & to grow together.
Packer_Fan
May 15, 2023 at 01:28 pm
Statistics are one thing, but defenses will try to rattle Love early in games. Causing errors and making the Pack play from behind. That's one challenge Love and Lafleur will need to overcome. Another is winning close games. That may take a few seasons. It did for Rodgers. And finally winning big games. Which Rodgers seemed to lose at the end.
The defense will also have a big impact on winning. Other than Reed and Amos, this defense can be as good or better than the defense during the late season win streak. Which one will show up? All depends on Barry. I think he lost his guys during the season last year. I see at least 7 games where the defense can help win games. Will they play like the New York games or the Miami game.
We shall see
T7Steve
May 15, 2023 at 01:45 pm
That's why I believe last season was a building season. When the D played well, it seemed the O played bad and vice-versa. They have to play complimentary football (I sound like Insider Inbox here) along with the budding STs to be successful. They were building that LAST year. This season will be the Os junior year not their rookie year. The senior D and STs will help drag them to success.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 15, 2023 at 01:46 pm
I wish them luck cuz theyre gonna need it. This offense isnt going to be lining up in shotgun spread on first downs just inviting pass rushes to come get the qb like it has over the last decade plus. Were finally gonna have an offense that dictates to the defense and its going to give defenses fits.
TKWorldWide
May 15, 2023 at 07:41 pm
One of my biggest hopes is to see a lot less shotgun! You hit the nail on the head!
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 15, 2023 at 09:28 pm
My guess is we'll only see shotgun on 3rd downs or 2nd and longs unless theyre playing catch up late in games. The way it should be.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:17 am
PF,
It will really help Jordan Love and the offense if the team starts better to prevent hero ball. Let JL run the offense and everything will work fine.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 15, 2023 at 01:43 pm
The better question is what are the expectations for this offense with Love under center? With the lone exception of 2020, we are finally about to see a complete offense. One that attacks every inch of the field using every tool at their disposal. Rushing, playaction, screens, lots of motion, jet sweeps, end arounds, etc. How "great" the qb is will matter less than it ever has in Green Bay because life will be made easy for him. Remember how easy that playaction td to Watson looked? Straight out of the Kyle Shanahan playbook. All Love has to do is his job and this offense should be top 10 with the potential to even be top 5. Love could end up with rather pedestrian numbers and this offense still be dominant. The years of only winning because of elite qb play are over which is exactly why this team will finally have a legitimate chance of competing with the big boys.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:19 am
Baloney,
" The years of only winning because of elite qb play are over which is exactly why this team will finally have a legitimate chance of competing with the big boys."
Elite QB play has been gone for sometime now!
JL will have better all around #'s in 2023 than our 'elite' QB did in 2022.
Bure9620
May 15, 2023 at 02:05 pm
I do not think a 1000 yard season is out of the question for Watson. He is going to be option 1A or 1B on most plays. He is going to be targeted heavily. Just look at his TD production when a healthy. He will have several deep shots too adding yardage.
jeremyjjbrown
May 15, 2023 at 02:42 pm
If you average Watsons last 8 games over a 17 game season it's 1105 yards. So 1000 yards isn't even an improvement in his recent play.
TKWorldWide
May 15, 2023 at 07:42 pm
Right! Just gotta stay healthy!
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:21 am
Going to come down to health for Watson! If healthy his career will be pretty amazing!
As the other young offensive weapons get experienced they will eliminate some of the double teaming/bracketing which will only help Watson.
egbertsouse
May 15, 2023 at 02:09 pm
Mac Jones level numbers seem realistic for a first year starter.
JohnnyLogan
May 15, 2023 at 02:35 pm
I looked back at the draft the year Love was drafted. It turns out the pick wasn’t that mind blowing as many had Love as the 3rd best QB in the draft. So it’s not like we’re sending a 5th rounder out there. He’s also had 3 years to learn and has been under NFL by lights. He sounds like a very bright and determined young man. I have no idea how it will play out but I have less concern that he will be bad than the duo of MLF and Barry being bad. I have zero confidence in those two. Neither seems to have the smarts or the toughness for their position. Love May turn out to be so good he’ll carry them the way Rodgers carried McCarthy and Capers. Can’t wait to see the kid play.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 15, 2023 at 03:02 pm
Brian Flores was pounding the table to draft Love over Tua with the #5 overall pick. So at least 1 NFL head coach thought he was worthy of a top 5 pick and the Packers got him at #26 overall. Could end up being the steal of the decade.
Since'75
May 16, 2023 at 01:43 am
Thanks for the entertaining post, i smiled ear to ear 🤣
jeremyjjbrown
May 15, 2023 at 02:40 pm
I don't see any reason why 1000 yards and 8 TDs is an unrealistic expectation for Watson.
greengold
May 16, 2023 at 02:26 am
First half of the season? We agree.
In all seriousness, I really do think Jordan Love is going to light it up. He’s got a very, very quick release & an accurate cannon for an arm, readily able to neutralize any pass rush.
Watson is going to get a ton of action, and there isn’t a CB or S who can stick with him. Love has the arm strength to deliver big deep.
Add Reed, Melton, Toure to this mix? That’s 4 players who can take the top off a defense at WR. When have the Packers had this previously? Never.
Are we all seeing the mismatches?
Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Lew Nichols lll? Those guys are going to eat. Chain moving extraordinaire. Especially with opposing defenses unable to load the box for fear of GB continually taking the lid off. They’re going to have to play GB honest.
Musgrave & Kraft? My guess is they’ll have a field day in the middle under these conditions, and Love will not be afraid to throw there.
What? More chain movers in Doubs? Wicks? DuBose?
This is why I believe Gutekunst keeps 7 WR again in 2023. We may need this depth over a 17 game season.
All of this behind a veteran, well seasoned OL.
********
Makes me glad to know we added this much pass rush (equally adept at run stop).
Teams will be forced to throw to play catch up. Pass rush on the outside with Van Ness, Cox Jr, Enagbare, Gary & Smith coupled with interior pass rush in Wyatt, Wooden & Brooks added to Clark.
Solid pass rush helps any secondary. The young speed Gutekunst added at Safety in Tarvarius Moore & Anthony Johnson Jr., a plus.
This is all looking very good on paper. Encouraging.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:23 am
As always GG you accurately hit a fast ball & it is arcing out of the stadium as I type this!
greengold
May 17, 2023 at 11:52 am
We're gonna have so much fun watching practice.
PRACTICE???!!!! LOL.
That first one open to the public, I'll be there, wearing a RED HOT JULIUS PEPPERS t-shirt. There's only one like it... I'll be at Kroll's after practice if I don't see you and will buy you a beer!
I can't freaking wait to see all of our new players. That is always special.
jont
May 15, 2023 at 02:58 pm
In this fan's evaluations, I try to separate the QB's performance from that of the whole offense.
For Love, I'd consider it a good year if he plays like a first rounder who's had a good few years to learn. I want to see a steady, unrattled QB back there, a guy who leads the team and makes good decisions, doesn't waste too many time outs, throws it away when he should. I want to see a few wow plays that give us hope.
Numbers? If he ends up matching 12's first year of 4,038 yards, 28 TDs vs 13 picks, and a 93.8 rating I'll consider that a pretty good year.
And even with that, it seems a consensus view that the Packers have some weaknesses and are a .500 team, give or take a win or two. We could get both.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:28 am
Jont,
I don't want to put any restrictions on Jordan Love, however I do believe it imperative to realize the following:
1. The Packers were in the NFCCG with a 13 & 3 regular season record the year prior to Rodgers starting. A far cry difference from the 2022 non-playoff team with an 8 & 9 record. That would imply Rodgers team was considerable stronger than the team Love is inheriting.
2. Why won't everyone consider rushing yards, rushing TD's & first downs when comparing Rodgers vs Love?
3. Aaron Rodgers WR's & TE's were not only significantly more experienced & successful, but the talent is far superior to the WR's & TE's Jordan Love is inheriting. Now....to be fair...with another year or two of experience one can look back and further evaluate.
My point is....this is not comparing apples to apples, but apples to oranges! Furthermore, there should not be excuses.....just let's fairly evaluate if we want to evaluate.
MainePackFan
May 15, 2023 at 03:26 pm
What I will be looking at is Love's command of the huddle. Is he a leader? Does he know the offense inside out. Does he have the confidence to learn from a mistake and not shrink from it.
We all know he has the physical talents to be a productive NFL QB, but does he have the "it factor" that wins games, or does he play not to lose.
There will be times he will have to tune up a player for running the wrong route or being in the wrong place and missing an assignment. That's the gig. I can't wait to see what his leadership style looks like, and how his teammates respond.
I feel quite confident that Love is going to be a solid QB this year. The way he has handled himself for the last 3 years tells me the moment won't be too big for him. There seems to be a chill about him. Dare I even say a R-E-L-A-X sort of countenance : )
I think we are going to see a pretty high floor with this kid, and an even higher ceiling. Can't wait. GPG!!!
murf7777
May 15, 2023 at 04:45 pm
I agree Maine....I always liked Love coming out of college. Over the past three years he has earned my respect. I agree about how you evaluate him, not just based on numbers but more about leadership and how he handles adversity. He will probably struggle a bit in the beginning due to not having any veteran pass catchers except at RB and HB. He should have a very solid OL thou.
It will be a new era of Packers football.
MainePackFan
May 15, 2023 at 06:13 pm
murf.
I don't think his struggles will be as bad as we fear. Maybe the Packers are developing a blueprint for HOF QB's. Draft one late in the first round and let him sit behind current HOF QB. Piss off said HOF QB and milk two MVP's out of him. Trade HOF QB to the Jets. Rinse and repeat
; )
murf7777
May 16, 2023 at 07:51 am
I hope you’re right, not sure you have to have 3 years, but having a year or two to sit behind a HOF QB has some serious advantage. Many forget Mahommes sat for one year.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:30 am
Well said Maine & Murf!
Vachio
May 15, 2023 at 05:08 pm
Statistically, I think Love will have a better season than Rodgers did in 2022. Watson, Doubs, and Toure are likely going to take a step or two forward in year two. Deguara might actually get utilized better. He's certainly flashed in the limited opportunities he's had. Jones and Dillon should be a formidable duo. We know teams are going to stack the box and dare Love to beat them deep while blitzing him every chance they get. In fact, I'll say right now our first play in 2023 should be the exact same one it was in 2022...except Watson catches the ball this time. I think Love & LaFleur (and the line) will be ready for the stacked boxes and blitzes.
Will that translate to a bunch of wins? Time will tell.
MainePackFan
May 15, 2023 at 06:37 pm
"Statistically, I think Love will have a better season than Rodgers did in 2022."
Vachio. Teams have no idea how to attack Love. There isn't enough tape. If Love duplicates Rodgers numbers, the defense steps up, and special teams don't take a step backwards, the Packers will win the North.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:31 am
Agreed all the way Maine!
greengold
May 17, 2023 at 11:39 am
100%. ALL. IN.
Oppy
May 15, 2023 at 05:39 pm
Expectations for Love's first season as a starter:
Demonstrate a complete understanding of the offense
Demonstrate an ability to adjust protections as needed against various looks from the defense
Display tangible leadership on and off the field of play
Take responsibility for mistakes and outcomes
Over the course of the season, show that he's learning from previous mistakes and has the ability to identify those circumstances and take steps to mitigate them going forward
Over the course of the season, showing awareness of the game clock in relation to game situation- knowing when to slow or increase the tempo getting into and out of the huddle
Stand tall in the pocket and deliver a ball while under pressure without prematurely tucking and running (we've already seen this)
Conversely, identifying when the pocket is collapsing and he has an alley to run, taking the opportunity when appropriate
Understanding of when it's appropriate to take a shot downfield, vs. just moving the sticks and living to fight another day
I feel pretty good about Jordan Love's chances of being a plus QB in his first year of play, but I do think it will take time for him to get there.
Overall, I'd look at Love's season the way that MM used to track the W-L ledger: Break in into quarters and look for improvement from quarter to quarter. I expect to see errors in games 1-4. I expect to see marked improvement on some of those items by game 8. More refinement by game 12. Etc and so forth.
I think has all the physical tools and has shown the maturity and understanding of the offense to have a successful 2023. As with all things in the NFL, he will experience a lot of adversity as he sees things in real time for the first time, and how he adapts and corrects under the stress of of his first year as an NFL starter will define the QB he will become.
Just a quick reminder- you have to watch and assess the QB, not the outcome. It's the ultimate team sport, it takes all 11 on offense to get it done. Love needs to be assessed on the things he can control.
splitpea1
May 15, 2023 at 06:10 pm
Excellent job--this gets a gold star for comprehensiveness.
TKWorldWide
May 15, 2023 at 07:45 pm
That Oppy knows him some football!
LambeauPlain
May 15, 2023 at 06:30 pm
A lot of similarities between Love and Rodgers' first seasons. Both first rounders who learned behind a legend for 3 years. And Defense will be the wild card in their first seasons under center.
Rodgers played well, but had the late game collapsing Bob Sanders' Defense. With the game on the line they couldn't stop go ahead, winning drives several games. The 6-10 record was due more to the Defense than to Rodgers.
If Love can play with his Defense playing tough and stopping teams at critical moments...I think the team will be very competitive with a winning record. Regardless, with the Packer O line and the rushing attack with more short passing and attacking the middle...I think Love will keep up his end of the bargain.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 17, 2023 at 11:32 am
Rodgers also had the monster advantage of having:
Driver, Jones, Nelson, Jennings, Donald Lee, and Finley amongst others. Driver alone had four consecutive 1,000+ seasons.
PhantomII
May 15, 2023 at 09:40 pm
Love will be fine. He spent time in the offseason with Jones and the WR's. His numbers will be better than what we had last season with 10-11 wins. The offense was smoother after Love came in against the Eagles...I expect the same. He doesn't have a problem throwing to any receiver. We will have motion in the backfield. 2-TE's to catch the ball instead of only blocking. 2-RB's who can run and catch well. If he gets blitzed a bunch ML can use more screens....and how about a screen to a RB and him pass it down field to give them something to think about. JL uses ALL the field...even the middle of it and he's more mobil than what we had...and he doesn't run the clock to zero....damn I hated that. We should run it 50-60% for 100-150 yds, JL should throw it 180+ yds with YAC ability everywhere. JL completes 63-67 % of his passes. I believe the offense will run smoother with JL than it did with AR constantly changing the plays at the LOS. I think this young fella learned what to do and not to do. AR had plenty of flaws, as good as he could be. I say it evens out over the season and JL with a pretty good overall team is playing well...just like we need him to. GPG