What are your expectations for the Packers' first-year tight ends?
History suggests that there may be a prolonged period of acclimation.
By rex.sheild
After general manager Brian Gutekunst decided against re-signing tight end Bobby Tonyan, the tight end room for the Green Bay Packers needed a spark, a breath of fresh air. So, Gutekunst & Co. drafted not one tight end, but two tight ends in the first three rounds of this year's NFL Draft. It was only the fourth time in team history since the NFL-AFL merger that the Packers drafted two tight ends in the same draft (1967, 1969, 2011) and the first time they drafted two tight ends within the first three rounds in the same draft, according to Pro Football Reference’s Stathead.
Adding two young, athletic tight ends is exciting, from a fan perspective, but history suggests Luke Musgrave (drafted 42nd overall) and Tucker Kraft (drafted 78th overall) will not hit the ground running in 2023.
In the league's history, only 12 tight ends have eclipsed at least 600 receiving yards in their rookie seasons; only seven have amassed at least 700 receiving yards; and only five have accumulated at least 800 receiving yards. Mike Ditka (1,076 yards in 1961) and Kyle Pitts (1,026 in 2021) are the only rookie tight ends to have at least 900 receiving yards as rookies. In terms of receptions, only five players have registered at least 60, including Pat Freiermuth in 2021 (60), Evan Engram in 2017 (64), and Pitts (68).
Even some of the most accomplished players at the position, such as Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Jason Witten, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates and Greg Olsen, did not initially light the NFL world on fire. Among those players, only Gronkowski had more than 500 receiving yards his rookie season.
The results over the last ten years are no different. There were 55 tight ends drafted in the first three rounds from 2012 until 2022. Only six players registered at least 40 receptions during their rookie campaigns, and a mere 12 of the 55 draftees accumulated at least 400 receiving yards. How many players over 500 yards? Five. Over 700 yards? Two. On a yards-per-game basis, 11 averaged at least 30 receiving yards per game, and four averaged at least 40 receiving yards per game.
Depending on the offense, yards can be hard to come by for tight ends, but tight ends can be a quarterback’s best friend in the red zone. Did the touchdown numbers reflect that? Not exactly. Only seven players had at least four touchdowns, led by Hunter Henry’s eight scores in 2016, and 14 had at least three touchdowns. In total, the average stat line produced for those 55 tight ends in their rookie season: 36 targets, 21.8 receptions, 252 yards, and two touchdowns.
As you may recall, the Packers have drafted two other tight ends in the first three rounds under Gutekunst – Jace Sternberger in 2019 (75th overall) and Josiah Deguara in 2020 (94th overall). Sternberger did not register a single reception (one target), while Deguara produced one reception for 12 yards in two games. (Deguara suffered a season-ending ACL injury in Week 5.)
So, why have rookie tight ends historically struggled to stuff the stat sheet in their first professional season? For starters, the depth of knowledge required to play the position is much more extensive than other skill positions. “I always make this argument: Besides the quarterback, the tight ends have to know more than anybody else offensively," Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell said, according to the Associated Press. Campbell played the position for three NFL teams over a 10-year career.
Not only are tight ends entrusted to elevate the offense in the passing game with their receiving prowess, but they are also called upon to help in the running game and in pass protection. The latter can pose a challenge for some rookie tight ends. Adam Shaheen, who was drafted by the Chicago Bears in the second round of the 2017 NFL Draft and last played for the Miami Dolphins in 2021, told Sports Illustrated in 2017 that the former Division-II star, who registered a Division-II record 16 receiving touchdowns for Ashland (Ohio) University in 2016, “really had never pass-blocked.”
“The tight end position is just so dynamic, being a part of the run game and pass game. You’ve got to be smart to play it, and I think, behind quarterback, it’s one of the toughest to learn and make that transition not only in the playbook but also in techniques.”
Kraft and Musgrave, both of whom registered at least a 9.68 Relative Athletic Score (RAS), are primarily receiving tight ends. Will they be able to hold their own in terms of run and pass blocking?
Ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft, Dane Brugler of The Athletic wrote that Kraft “might not be polished” as a blocker, “but he gets after it with the body control and desire to sustain and finish blocks. … Overall, Kraft needs development time to refine his route running and blocking techniques.” As to Musgrave, Brugler pointed out that the Oregon State product “blocks with outstanding body control and leverage to be a physical edge setter and engage defenders at the second and third levels, although he still needs to improve his sustain skills and steadiness as a pass blocker.”
There are always exceptions to the rule, with the rule here being that rookie tight ends have historically not been overly productive in the stat sheet in their first season. The question for the Packers is: will Musgrave and/or Kraft be the exceptions?
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Rex is a lifelong Packers fan but was sick of the cold, so he moved to the heart of Cowboys country. Follow him on Twitter (@Sheild92) and Instagram (@rex.sheild).
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Comments (30)
SJPack
July 31, 2023 at 12:20 pm
I'm bullish on their combined output with a lot of snaps between the 2. Coupled with being outlets for checkdowns and Musgrave up the seam a few times each game, I see, 70 catches(4 per outing), 750 yards, and 6 TDs in aggregate this season. Lots of fun to watch this part of our attack develop. Paving their way to become huge impact players in 2024.
marpag1
July 31, 2023 at 12:41 pm
I'd like to think they'll both be awesome, but I just can't go against all those years of history. Statistically I think they will be pretty average, especially since they will both be competing for snaps. However I think their presence on the field will affect the game more than their statistics might suggest. It's been a while since the Packers have had someone who can stretch the seam. (I don't want to start a throw down by talking about him who shall not be named - and by "him who shall not be named" I mean Aaron Rodgers - but maybe there was a reason why Aaron Rodgers did not throw over the middle of the field as much as we wanted him to. I've always thought that Robert Tonyan was a very ordinary tight end). Having some guys who can threaten the middle will be nice.
In the running game we are going to seriously miss Marcedes Lewis. That's just a given. Lazard, too.
ImaPayne
July 31, 2023 at 06:01 pm
Gutt sure passed on some top TE's analyst had slated for the team in round one. Lets hope these guys can play ball. I wonder how far they would have fallen without Gutt's pick?
cdoemel
August 01, 2023 at 06:04 pm
So you’d trade Van Ness for a TE at that position?
PhantomII
July 31, 2023 at 12:50 pm
I'm sure there is some truth to the position...But blocking the right direction for the RB is just the start of it. A RB is gonna run in the open hole every time and it doesn't matter how you block it up as the game is fluid and players will miss their spots for leverage and players will get beat or over pursue and things change in an instant. Good RB vision trumps anything that a TE or anyone else can do as he speeds up or down or puts his foot into the ground and makes a cut or powers into contact. The main thing I am looking for is our TE's to block some and release out into a route and catch the ball...Something big dog RARELY did. That was indeed the biggest problem with running out 2-TE sets the past several seasons. Both new TE's are athletic and Deguara was rarely used also. I want ML to use the TE position as it should be for power when running the rock and matchup issues in the pass game. Looking forward to the new system changes to come. ML does not want a big nasty OL....So we will endure the limited effectiveness to TE's against bigger bodies and lesser effective run game in the hopes the TE's make more of a difference in the pass game. A bigger stronger OL is what we have needed from all our playoffs...But here we are, and it's ML dictating what he wants to Gute. On the other hand, Our Offensive weapons have increased in athleticism and Speed. Maybe the mix will finally work with QB1 that will spread it around better. Looking forward to 2023....GPG
cdoemel
August 01, 2023 at 06:17 pm
“ML does not want a big nasty OL”. What a ridiculous thing to say! Bakhtiari and Jenkins are pro-bowlers!
PhantomII
August 01, 2023 at 09:02 pm
Nope, ML wants athletic OL that runs spread...Not strait ahead most of the time. If you had watched all of our Playoff fails, the OL was man handled by bigger, stronger Bucs or SF Defense. I want an OL that can use TE's to block....but don't HAVE to be used even on pass plays because the majority of them are undersized.
T7Steve
July 31, 2023 at 12:52 pm
If only they can cause the Ds to have to respect them, it's a win for this season. That will open up so much more. Face it, they won't even have to catch many passes to outdo the output from last season, so it's not necessarily a downgrade in receiving. Hopefully our line won't need as much help from them this season, because they might not be an upgrade in blocking.
WD
July 31, 2023 at 01:20 pm
The performance of the TEs will be correlated to the number of times they are thrown at. The former QB hardly ever threw Tonyan's way. Rodgers had his favorites. Tonyan was not one of them. I think it hurt the Packers. Obviously, they are rookies but they appear to have the talent. I am optimistic about their production.
dobber
July 31, 2023 at 02:17 pm
ARod targeted Tonyan the same as Doubs and Watson, just more on short outs and dumpoffs than he did downfield. I think that's the key more than anything else: targeting Musgrave and Kraft on 6 yard outs and having them average 8.9 ypc (like Tonyan) would make that draft investment a total waste. Richard Rodgers could do that.
dobber
July 31, 2023 at 01:45 pm
"In the league's history, only 12 tight ends have eclipsed at least 600 receiving yards in their rookie seasons"
Since Jermichael Finley put together back-to-back 600+ yard seasons in 2011 and 2012, only one Packer TE has eclipsed 600 yards at all (Jimmy Graham, 2018, 636 yards).
Something's gotta give.
Leatherhead
July 31, 2023 at 03:38 pm
93 passes thrown to our TEs last year, most of those to Tonyan. That's only about 5 or 6 targets to the entire unit, and we still have to consider that we have DeGuara, who has taken quite a few reps with Love over the last 3 years and caught 13 out of 15 last year.
My gut is saying the Packers will rely on Deguara early in the season, and that we'll see Deguara and Musgrave on the field together. IMO, Musgrave is going to be used as a big slot, and the Packers like big slots. Look at how many snaps Lazard took in the slot last year.
On most plays, the TE is a blocker, and the guy who can get his guy blocked is the guy who'll be on the field the most.
Coldworld
July 31, 2023 at 06:19 pm
Musgrave was lined up as the X today. I expect him to see the field more than some think but not necessarily as a TE in the traditional sense. Like it or not, the true TE snaps are going to go in large part to the best blocker/protector. Until that is Kraft, his opportunities likely won’t come as frequently as many project.
Leatherhead
July 31, 2023 at 06:47 pm
Agree on the blocking. The TE is a 6th offensive lineman on a majority of plays. And agree that Musgrave will be on the field more than you'd think, but not always as a TE. He allows you to have a 2 TE formation at the same time as a 3-1-1 look. It's a hard calculation for the defense.
I'd line up Watson and Doubs, and Musgrave and DeGuara in the slots. Put people in motion as desired and I think the opponent has to play nickel, which is only going to leave them with six run defenders against a 7 man offensive line. I've always liked the Math on that.
Bearmeat
July 31, 2023 at 02:02 pm
I don't expect much from the TEs this year and maybe not next year. TE takes time. Musgrave maybe 400 yds and 3 TDs. At most.
dobber
July 31, 2023 at 02:18 pm
If you're going to put that kind of draft capital into the TE position, you'd better have a plan to use it.
Bearmeat
July 31, 2023 at 03:46 pm
Agreed. But look at the history of TEs. It takes time. Why are GBs TEs going to be any different?
Coldworld
July 31, 2023 at 06:54 pm
If this was a win now year perhaps that would need to bear fruit this year. However, this is a year where we are investing not so much for now as for the next 4 years. That’s the period over which we need to recoup on this investment.
LeotisHarris
July 31, 2023 at 02:36 pm
I expect seeing that oft-used photo of the two of them will continue to make me feel old. It's not quite the J.K Scott Effect, but it's close.
Packers0808
July 31, 2023 at 04:24 pm
My guess once they bring back M Lewis to mentor them, they will get much better. Packers don't Lewis for pass plays as much as they will definitely his 6th man OL capabilities~
PhantomII
July 31, 2023 at 04:56 pm
As much as our previous QB1 changed run plays to passing plays....Lewis was a not an effective receiver and as good as he was blocking and a good dude, he was not a big threat catching the ball and YAC. I would be more than happy for him being a TE coach, but I doubt he would be willing to take the pay cut.
Turophile
July 31, 2023 at 04:34 pm
The TEs will get more snaps than rookies normally get (especially TE rookies) due to the TE room being almost bare before they were drafted.
I expect mistakes, fumbles, wrong routes, blocking errors..............but this will be a learning on the job experience and both TEs are very talented. It is unlikely to all come together early, but what I want to see is flashes of what they can do - more consistency will come, over time.
jannesbjornson
July 31, 2023 at 04:37 pm
I expect them both to start and go from there...
LGDaub
July 31, 2023 at 04:44 pm
I expect better production than last season's squad, and a lot more catches in the middle of the field regardless. That may not be the case early on, but I think it will be by the end of the season and going forward.
Qoojo
July 31, 2023 at 04:55 pm
Just keep the average historical performance of rookie TEs in mind. Given how much packers will be forced to play the rookies, I think one might end up with slightly better than average stats.
There is already talk from training camp about Davis being the best blocker so speculation on play time could even be wrong.
stockholder
July 31, 2023 at 05:12 pm
I don't have any expectations for them.
If they fail; they'll be scared for-ever.
Just look at DeGuara. or Jace Sterberger.
TT drafted a few TEs for Rodgers.
They all had a hand in helping where needed.
I just hope they grow with the offense.
And if they become a fan favorite- Terrific!
ImaPayne
July 31, 2023 at 06:03 pm
Too many rookies and second year guys who arent ready for prime time yet to spread the ball around.
If LeFluer go run first they will be blockers most of the season. They should have mixed emotions about being a pack versus to a passing team in need on one TE to fit in.
Rory P Scrotem
July 31, 2023 at 06:25 pm
Packers are laying in the weeds this year. They are going to surprise a lot of people. Always love reading Fubared's comments. Glass 1/2 empty "totally off the mark" guy! Fill up your glass brother & enjoy the ride! Love & Lambeau Leaps!!...Suburban Ervin
vin0770
July 31, 2023 at 08:36 pm
This year;
Hope for some….
Expect little….
Boneman
August 01, 2023 at 08:20 am
If one or both average just 3 receptions for 40 yards a game it gets them over 50 receptions and 600 yards for the season. Throw in a combined 4 or 5 touchdowns and that position is more than holding their own. To me, the most exciting thing is the threat it brings against defenses. Nobody worried about Packer TE's for the last... well, many years. Musgrave especially is a big play waiting to happen. This means many more one on one's and more space for our WR's on the outside. If the Pack plays smart and LeFleur shines, it could turn into a lethal offense very quickly. This potentially can be the best skill position group the Packers have had in a long, long time.