What Matters Most Isn't Always Measurable
Judging by statistics alone is a fool's game
By GregMeinholz
Years ago, when I first started here with Cheesehead TV, my role was to publish game recaps after every single Packers game. When this role was first presented to me, my first thought was that I needed to paint a picture beyond the box score. Any somewhat educated person with a keyboard can copy/paste stats from the end of the game and call it a recap. I wanted to do my best to immerse the reader in each drive and not just tell them that Jordan Love threw a 30-yard touchdown pass to Christian Watson, but tell them how they got there and what helped Watson get wide open down the field for the big play.
I thoroughly enjoyed the comments I received from folks who may have missed the game, saying they felt like they didn't need to watch their recording, they just had to read my recap. And obviously, I did something right, as I'm still on this platform today. But it's exactly that detail that separates many of us fans. You have your box score watchers who define games and players by the numbers they look at for ten seconds, and then you have your detail-oriented fans who are able to break down the cause and effect of most plays/drives. This isn't a gate-keeping statement; everyone can "fan" how they want, but when it comes to passing judgment, it's better to have the full breakdown.
You hear it time and time again that football is the ultimate team sport. 11 players on that field need to do their job in order to find success. If Josh Jacobs breaks out a 40-yard touchdown run, of course, the camera is going to zoom in on Jacobs, and the stat sheet is going to be padded in his favor. But what doesn't the stat sheet show? How he got there. It doesn't show Zach Tom and Tucker Kraft sealing the edge, it doesn't show Christian Watson walking his defender ten yards down the field and out of the play. But that's what makes that play happen, and those players deserve the credit due for getting the job done.
Football is all about cause and effect. If this happens, then that can happen. The sheer presence of one player alone can change an offense or a defense dramatically. One player who can do exactly that for the Green Bay Packers is Christian Watson.
Going Beyond the Box Score
Ever since Christian Watson was drafted, he's been defined as a deep-threat receiver. If he gets behind a defender on a route or has the ball in open space with an open field ahead, there is no catching him. As a result, secondaries need to account for his speed on every play. If Christian Watson takes off on a fly or post pattern, there's a good chance he's going to pull his assigned corner, as well as a safety to defend him.
That attention draw can easily leave other receivers, or a tight end like Tucker Kraft, in favorable one-on-one mismatch situations in the short or medium game. A prime example of this was Watson's return from his ACL injury to face Pittsburgh. The attention of the Steelers' defense immediately went to the threat of Watson deep, and as a result, Kraft went off for the best game of his career, making 7 catches for 143 yards and two touchdowns.
A box score watcher would look at this as "wow, Kraft really went off in this game," and then look at Watson's four catches for 85 yards and say, "pretty decent for his first game back." When honestly, Watson shared in the majority of Kraft's success. But there's no way to truly measure the impact of essentially acting as a decoy. Nor is there a good way to measure impact blocking from a receiver. PFF might try to grade a receiver's blocking abilities, and Christian Watson has ranked high on their lists, but "key block to spring a big play" isn't listed on the stat sheet.
Rest assured, though, coaches and GMs see those unheralded actions, and they don't forget. Yesterday, Matt LaFleur praised Christian Watson, noting that Watson embodies the team's culture and that he never complains about targets, always puts the team first. Some fans may roll their eyes hearing this term if the player talked about is one they're not a fan of, but the term "good locker room guy" is one some teams value more than others. If statistically, a player is ranked 20th in the league, but is considered a "good locker room guy," the team may value him as if he's ranked in the top-10.
Much like the game recaps I used to write, the full story of a game doesn't always lie in the box score. Many fans balked at Christian Watson's extension this week. But Watson's value in Green Bay goes way beyond catches, yards, and touchdowns. He commands a defense's attention, and he selflessly creates opportunities for his teammates, whether it be by throwing blocks or running routes as a decoy. Those contributions don't show up on a stat line, but they're often the reason why a teammate's stats do.
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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz and Bluesky @gmeinholz.bsky.social for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.
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Comments (26)
Leatherhead
June 10, 2026 at 10:43 am
It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.
T7Steve
June 10, 2026 at 12:53 pm
You made that up! Ha.
TKWorldWide
June 10, 2026 at 01:36 pm
And if the dog can run a 4.3 forty, all the better. 😂🏈
BuckyBadger
June 10, 2026 at 10:58 am
As a hobby handicapper I spend a lot of my free time playing with box scores and "advance" analytics. I love to play with numbers and see if there is anything that can be predictive. I agree 100% on this article. There is only so much you can pull out of a box score or even the most advance stats. There are things like depth of target, success rates for DVOA and about 100 different QB rating systems that try to incorporate more of the nuances of the game but nothing will ever replace good ole film review in football. There is just too much. Watson blocking down field or running his route with purpose doesn't show up in the stat sheet. The safety biting down on the run or holding his position because the RB has been punishing them all game is hard to show in a box score.
LambeauPlain
June 10, 2026 at 11:03 am
Anyone who has played football knows the value of team leaders. They often are not the marquee guys either...but some are. Letting their play do the talking quickly gets noticed by teammates and soon leadership roles find them.
As a rookie, Watson was one of those "marquee guys" who let his play to the talking. His injuries, after a fairly injury free, highly productive college career were disheartening...but Christian did not whine or lament. He just went to work. He genuinely loves football and it shows.
You win in a team game with guys like Watson...who naturally become team leaders.
GregC
June 10, 2026 at 11:34 am
This is very true, and it is something that is not emphasized enough. PFF invented a rating scale that takes some of those hard-to-measure things into account, such as blocking by receivers, but there's only so much you can do, and it's hard to tell if PFF's numbers are accurate, especially now that they've apparently reduced their staff.
T7Steve
June 10, 2026 at 01:01 pm
The only thing you can do is compare others stats when he's on the field versus when he's not and wins and losses.
BuckyBadger
June 10, 2026 at 01:20 pm
I have done some deep dives into how PFF goes about their ratings and I think they do a very good job over all but even they will tell you that there is a certain amount of error in what they do. Their film study is intense but they don't know the play called and without that a lot of what they base their stats on (like positive or negative play) can be off. Maybe he didn't miss his assignment but it appears to us and our NFL consultants he did.
Sort of like combine results, just one piece of the puzzle.
GregC
June 10, 2026 at 01:33 pm
That's what I've always wondered about with PFF. For example, I think judging the performance of CBs in pass coverage is usually (but not always!) straightforward, but if a linebacker or safety gives up a completion, you often can't tell whether they made a bad play or whether they did everything right but just happened to be the closest player to the guy who caught the pass. Maybe it was another defender who screwed up and got out of position.
BuckyBadger
June 10, 2026 at 02:47 pm
Would be a great job. Sit around all day watching football, many times with past players to pick their mind.
Snap the ball
June 10, 2026 at 12:22 pm
When we play the Vikings they cover him with 3 defenders sometimes 4 if they think Love is throwing to him.
Need to do some other things with line up etc vs last year with him.
He learned a lot from Rodgers the first year then a switch in QB takes time.
Since'61
June 10, 2026 at 02:18 pm
Box scores have always been the facts of the game without context. They are data but not information. They don't tell you that a DB fell down leaving a WR . wide open on the play or that an interception was caused by the pass going off a receiver's hands and into the hands of a DB. The variables are too numerous to mention. It's true for the box scores in every sport.
They are a piece of all the information needed to assess what happended on the field that produced the results in the box score. That is why for me it is best to watch the game either live or taped or both. Thanks, Since '61
GregC
June 10, 2026 at 03:00 pm
Yep, there are just too many variables. Of the major team sports, football is by far the most difficult to analyze. Baseball is the easiest because most of the action takes place in direct relation to the ball. Basketball is pretty easy too because the action takes place in a small area. Hockey, on the other hand, is confusing to me, partly because I did not watch it when I was growing up, but I think it really is hard to tell what the players are doing out there and who is responsible for what.
Since'75
June 11, 2026 at 02:07 pm
Those are great points '61, as we come to expect from you.
I know you're talking box score for an individual game.
i'm looking, overall, in the context of stats.
So i'm not refuting your premise.
Just defending the legitimacy of stats.
Things like tipped passes, a db falling down.
Those things to me are somewhat fluky, they happen, but here and there.
I can remember TW getting some picks (right to his chest) playing mid/deep center field, when the QB would overthrow the receiver in the middle.
That i can see as somewhat misleading in a box score, but f it...it's still a pick.
******
If a RB gains 1,400 -1600 yards in a season and 12-15 TD's, that's a stat that is not misleading.
If Rodgers/any QB throws for 4,500 yards, 40 TD's and 7 picks, that wasn't because db's fell down.
It happened because he's Uber talented.
If a safety/corner has 6/7 interceptions, and one or two of those were tipped passes, i'm still calling that a great season.
Yea, things happen, but usually over the course of the season. the stats don't lie.
Since'75
June 10, 2026 at 03:22 pm
Not sure why this article came out.
It looks like someone wants to defend Watson.
Which is fine, i just thought this was already played out.
Was it because of the critique of Watson.....
Too much money?
Too little production?
Stats are bogus?
Someone had to be paid?
When i get some more time, i'll gather up some more thumbs down and weigh in on this with some truths and realism.
It's not negative, as i said before, Watson has skills.
But when someone gets a new contract, it's not unfair to look at it, compare it with others at the same position, etc.
Watson isn't crying. The Packers aren't crying, and we shouldn't be crying.
I did the same thing (down the hall) when Gary got his 2nd contract
We didn't have thumbs down over there, instead... we actually formed thoughts, and voiced opinions.
When i get some more time, i'll gather up some more thumbs down concerning this article, among other things. 😉
Snap the ball
June 10, 2026 at 07:20 pm
Gary knows don’t get hurt and take what they give you. He played well a few years and had an off year last year
We drafted him for the 3-4 Defense not 4-3. That’s on the Packers …now back to 3-4. He would have stayed for less money ..I think we blew this one.
Since'75
June 11, 2026 at 01:08 pm
I 'never' blame a player for taking what he can get.
What's to blame, it human nature.
He may have played well (at times)
but he never....played to expectations.
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You might be right about keeping him for less money.
I stated the same back when.
I really thought that was how the Gary situation would play out.
I figured he'd keep Gary for insurance on the edge
Somewhat like Guter kept Kevin King when he drafted Stokes.
Gary is going to make over 100 million in this league, without really being anything special.
Only in America.
Snap the ball
June 10, 2026 at 07:25 pm
I was hoping Watson got more. Then down the line Bears and Vikings will have to pay more …the bears are the Packers two years ago. Young team all in first contracts. Sooner or later you have to pay someone and turn others go.
Jordan needs to get on the same page ..with him. The eagles game 1st qtr at home the long pass hit him in the helmet that totally changes that game.
But he ran straight and never really turned around ..vs a side line pass so he can catch the ball at an angle.
The new receiver coach will correct lots of things ….and I think he would be good offensive coordinator…. I hope they give him some input
Vachio
June 10, 2026 at 07:26 pm
This is so true and so overlooked by a lot of fans. The Packer offense was better with John Kuhn on the field, even if he didn't post gaudy stats. Any time he was out, you could see the offense drop a couple of notches in performance.
Go back to 1998 and watch the Buffalo Bills. Rob Johnson put up gaudy stats only for them to lose the game. Doug Flutie goes in, puts up mediocre (at best) stats, but they win. Stats do not, never have, and never will tell the whole story.
Swisch
June 10, 2026 at 09:10 pm
A thumbs up for this article about immeasurables.
Another thing about Watson over the years is that he seems to make catches in big moments throughout the game. It seemed to me this was also true, to a smaller extent, with Golden last season. The rookie may not have racked up the stats, but it seemed that many of the catches he did make were in big moments.
I watch the Packers avidly, but don't take in nearly as much as other fans seem to do -- an ability and an effort which I admire.
I rely a lot on other fans here at CheeseheadTV, and well as the staff writers, plus some analysis from other places. I'm not all that systematic about it, but try to think critically about what I do read.
***
This leads me to my recent comments here at CheeseheadTV about Bart Starr being the best quarterback of all time.
I was too young to see Starr play, but I have inhaled documentaries and books and articles about the Packers over the years with enthusiastic deep breaths.
As perspective, I didn't see a lot of other quarterbacks play, like Johnny Unitas and Otto Graham. The QBs I have watched -- such as Bradshaw, Montana, and Brady -- were not studied by me on a comprehensive basis, but mostly in their games against the Packers, or against other teams in the playoffs.
Like so many different aspects of life, it seems we have to rely on others to come to our best understanding. We try to make good judgements about whom we trust. We try to compare what the various analysts have to say, where they agree and differ, and why. Then we apply our own thoughts on the matter as mulled over logically -- while also acknowledging our hunches.
I like to get the point of view of experts who have shown themselves trustworthy in usually having something of value to say, as well as regular fans who may also have points of view worth listening to, sometimes as a complement the experts, sometimes even as a corrective to them.
If we believe in a representative democracy, a government of, by, and for the people, it seems we would have to give some credit to the common man of common sense and common kindness. Sometimes the outsiders have unique insights.
***
Anyway, from what I can tell, Bart Starr was the master of immeasurables. As a quarterback, he prepared diligently, paid attention to the details of his craft that tend to go unnoticed, and made sure to look out for his teammates, even putting them ahead of himself.
Instead of continuously questioning and challenging Lombardi, he worked with him earnestly and respectfully -- although Starr was not afraid to put forth his take on situations that came up in planning or on the field. While it's true that Lombardi lifted Starr up from obscurity, it's hard to overestimate how much Starr helped Lombardi by quietly but confidently managing the team in the thick of the action.
If Lombardi was instrumental in making Starr a star, then it seems that Starr was instrumental in making Lombardi a legend. Maybe Lombardi wins those first two titles with a different quarterback, but does he go on, a couple of seasons later, to win another three titles in a row. I doubt it. Teams tend to unravel. It's so difficult to sustain excellence.
***
Anyway, I try to be open to being wrong. If, for example, Starr was actually lax in the details of being a QB -- things like handoffs and pitchouts and play fakes -- then I'd like to know it.
I admit to going largely by impressions and surmises, so I may well miss something. However, after being a loyal and attentive Packers fan for more than five decades, I like to think I do have some worthwhile things to say about our favorite team from time to time.
I wish I knew a lot more about a lot of things in life. Yet, if we do our best to think rightly, to cultivate good sources of information and analysis, and to be always learning -- well, I think all of us have something to contribute to any given discussion.
My best to all of the other fans here at CheeseheadTV, and the staff writers. I have sincere good will to all, and like to think I have a genuine camaraderie with at least some.
Savage57
June 11, 2026 at 06:18 am
I'm old enough to have seen Starr play. The best thing about Bart?
He was an even better man than he was a QB. And considering how good of a QB he was, that's saying something.
Swisch
June 11, 2026 at 12:23 pm
It's good to see that nice guys do finish first.
Guam
June 11, 2026 at 07:26 am
I'm old enough to have watched almost all of Starr's career with the Packers. I don't believe he is the GOAT of QBs, but he certainly belongs in the discussion. Starr was a true student of the game and a master of most of its aspects. The only knock I ever saw against Starr was his mobility. He was not elusive in the pocket and had very minimal running skills. Which was fine because he had an all star offensive line protecting him for most of his career.
And Savage got it right - as good as Starr was a QB, he was a better person. I had the privilege of meeting him on a couple of occasions and he was a true gentleman and an outstanding representative of the Packers.
Swisch
June 11, 2026 at 12:39 pm
In the late 1980s, when my cousin was a teenager, he caddied for Starr at a celebrity golf tournament for charity at North Hills Country Club, near Milwaukee.
At the time, his mom, my aunt, was afflicted with cancer. Starr couldn't have been more caring to my cousin. He lifted him up.
It seems Starr was diligent about lifting people up, and highly effective. We're blessed to have him so prominently associated with our favorite team.
Since'75
June 11, 2026 at 02:33 pm
I didn't watch his games, but in a direct/indirect way helped with Rawhide.
The thing about Starr was, i'm not so sure anyone's ever said anything negative about him as far as i know...ever.
I think that speaks volumes.
******
Now if you can excuse me, i have some more thumbs down to gather. 😲
********
Well, that's one!.....how dare me write that. 😏
Never give up!!😁
Since'75
June 11, 2026 at 01:46 pm
Ok.....
This article talks about how Watson influences a game, even if he isn't in the play.
This isn't groundbreaking.
Is it a way to increase his value in Packer fans mind?
Of course it is.
It's called.....Complimentary football.
Complimentary football, running a route, Off. line blocking, chipping, a receiver running a go route, a trick play,
Running back following blocking, a pick play, and on and on and on.
It happens with hundreds of players, hundreds of plays, every week.
It's called....football.
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Some like to say, stats don't tell the whole story.
Although there is some truth to that, its brought up usually to build a players value/asset.
As it has for decades and decades.
Stats also tell a 'story', it tells the production a player has put on the field
And everyone uses them...EVERYONE.
From A-Z, no matter where you look, what you read/watch.
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Now, we have the details of Watson's contract.
Which is 4 years, 92 million.
With incentives that could total 110 million.
Incentives, most likely tied to, games played, yards, perhaps touchdowns.
THOSE...are stats, they do matter.
Watson said....this was a win/win deal.
I couldn't agree more.
But i say it's a win/win/win.
Packers
Watson
Us....the fans
******
Watson....even though his yardage high has been 620 yards/season.
He gets 31 million....today,
Generational wealth!!
Good for him, and his family.
*****
Packers....Lets be honest, this was a must sign.
They haven't had a 1,000 yard plus guy, but they are going to pay him as if he was, which is fine.
We all hope that comes to fruition.
It would be nice to have a true #1.
This contract is essentially a 2 year deal, there isn't much risk at all to the Packers.
Watson has already received all his guaranteed money.
In the next two season, the Packers will pay Watson 34 million. Not unmanageable by any means.
*****
Us...The fans.
We all love NFL football, Green Bay Packer Football.
Any good players we can sign, is good. and Watson is good.
I don't want to speak for everyone, but we get the joy and fun of watching our Green Bay Packers every week for 4 months or longer.
Something i've done for almost as long as i can remember.
WIN/WIN/WIN