After slipping to the second round of the 2022 draft, triggering a Green Bay trade-up to grab him, Christian Watson has become an important piece on the Packers roster. However, his path to becoming an impact player hasn't always been the prettiest.

Of course, no one could ever forget the first play of Watson's career. A play drawn up for him to get the ball, he beats future Hall of Famer Patrick Peterson in coverage for a potential 75-yard touchdown, just for the ball to fall through his fingertips. Not exactly the best first impression on the fan base, who quickly slapped the "Marquez Valdes-Scantling" label on Watson. MVS, of course, having found himself in that scenario a few times with green Bay.

Plain and simple, there's no excuse for dropping a pass that hits a professional pass catcher square in the hands, especially with no obstructing player to break up the pass. And despite almost every receiver being credited with a drop during a season, even the best ones, Watson's happened to be magnified by the situation.

But his five drops as a rookie aside, Watson would eventually go on a historic rookie run. 

A fire ignited in a week 10 clash with the Dallas Cowboys that would be Watson's "welcome to the league" moment. His three touchdown receptions tied a Packers rookie record for touchdown catches in a game and set the stage for a four-week span of eight total touchdowns. In NFL history, only Randy Moss in 1998 has wracked up that many touchdowns as a rookie in the same span.

This stretch of games did more for one aspect of Watson's game than maybe anything else; his confidence. Sure, there were still moments where he wasn't attacking the ball as strong as someone his size could have, and there were still some mental mistakes, but finally looked comfortable. What flies under the radar is, per PFF, Watson produced the best passer rating when targeted on contested catches in the NFL in 2022 (156.3).

Fast-forward to his sophomore campaign, Watson only appeared in nine games after missing three as a rookie. In his first season with Jordan Love under center, Watson struggled to connect with Love, and the confidence, comfortability, and rhythm were reminiscent of the first half of Watson's rookie campaign. The combo that was expected to fuel Green Bay's offense was practically non-existent.

Watson was again dinged with a costly error tracking a deep ball in year two and had a costly third-down focus drop as the Packers tried to get on track in early November. What seemed to be a trend now was Watson's troubles coming at magnified moments rather than on simple first or second downs. 

Even for being young, it's not ideal for his place in the offense to be struggling to track the deep ball for a player whose game-breaking abilities revolve around those big plays. To make matters worse, he wasn't coming up in clutch moments. All this put Watson under a microscope, especially last season, as others like Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, and Romeo Doubs started to emerge over Watson in the offense.

As it did in year one, though, Watson hit another hot streak. He wracked up four touchdowns in three weeks as the Packers wrapped up a dominant late-season stretch, a span that included as many catches (14) as his entire season until then. Despite minimal usage in the playoffs, it's at least an encouraging note to end the season on.

Watson had a fairly prototypical "sophomore slump" season, largely due to nagging injuries, lacking chemistry with a new quarterback, and other weapons emerging. Despite injuries and never really clicking with Love, Watson still totaled the fifth most receiving touchdowns in a player's first two seasons in Packers history (12).

Either way, Watson's 2024 season started to tilt into "make it or break it" territory and second contract talks aren't far off.

Despite falling victim to another deep ball "drop heard around the world" in week 12 against the 49ers, all signs have been encouraging for Watson's development.

Christian Watson ... SHEESHpic.twitter.com/fzZHbPGRrU

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 24, 2024

No matter his involvement in the passing game, three things have always been true of Watson: he's entirely unselfish, willing to get his hands dirty blocking, and his game-breaking, "take the top off" talent opens up the rest of the offense.

After jumping out of the gates hot in week one with a touchdown, Watson would only have two catches on three targets in the next three games. But like seasons past, as Watson does not garner 34th pick in the draft type of involvement early on in seasons, he's still impacting the offense while not making a peep about his usage. A lost art among modern wide receivers. That said, all Packer receivers have taken turns going missing for most of a game this year.

Watson notched his first 100-yard game in week 11 against the Bears, and despite getting blanked in week 12, he's seen his snap count tick up since week eight. In the reclaimed expanded role, he's converting contested catches and has displayed far more pass-catching finesse than in past seasons. He's been far and away the Packers' most reliable hands this season.

But it shouldn't be surprising. Sticking true to the trend, Watson's hands have only improved in year three. It took until week 12 for Watson to get credited for a drop, and because it was another monumental drop with significant implications on the game, there's been renewed chaos over Watson's place on the Packers long-term. However, approach cautiously, as Watson is the only player in the NFL with ten or more contested catch targets and at least an 80% catch rate. Regardless of targets, his 80% contested catch rate is also the third-highest mark in football.

Watson should be measured for the type of player he is, which is not a Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase type. Instead, he's more your prototypical "field stretcher" that defenses have to respect with safety help over the top more often than not.

When stacking up Watson with other players with at least 30 targets and 19 or more yards per catch, Watson has the most contested catches (8), fewest drops (1), lowest drop percentage (4.8%), and the second-best separation grade against single coverage. This is despite having the second-highest depth of target (18.7). For context, Valdes-Scantling never achieved anywhere near similar output in his tenure with the Packers. Watson's 19.2 yards per catch is currently a career-best and the 93.1 quarterback rating when targeted is second among Packers' receivers after 12 weeks.

It's reasonable to be concerned about focus drops on deep passes still causing pause with Watson, but one really bad play this season, regardless of its implications, shouldn't negate his evident development. It's hard to say there's been a more desirable field stretcher specialist in the NFL this season, even though Watson has always lacked the targets.

Bear in mind Watson has only been credited with three regular-season drops since week 12 of 2022. That's fewer than Doubs, Wicks, and Reed all have this season. Besides Reed, no one has really emerged as another strongest contender to land the other hefty extension in the receiver room, but Watson may find himself back in the driver's seat at the expense of Wicks. Watson's "prime" years at his talent ceiling may perfectly align with a second contract and be an exciting experience for, ideally, the Packers.

If Watson's snap share continues to stay over 60%, as it has in three of the last four weeks, his deeper installment back into the offense could be a catalyst to a Packers playoff run as his game appears to be hitting stride.

Best of all, with rigorous off-season recovery efforts after revelations about understanding and solving his hamstring issues, Watson hasn't experienced any setbacks in his health.