Teams Pay for the Future, Not for the Past
New contracts are more future incentive than reward
By GregMeinholz

When you sign a contract with a person or a company to obtain a service, or they sign you to one, what is it for? Are they giving you a prize for having a good resume? Are you just rewarding them for having the ability to complete a task that you can't? No. Your signature on that contract indicates that you, or they, will perform the agreed-upon service for an agreed-upon compensation. Sure, a past resume can dictate the terms of the agreement and the compensation, but those new dollars are all payment for future performance. In the NFL, it's no different.
You read it every single year. Fans complaining about how much a player just signed for. Even the writers and talking heads on the radio, TV, and podcasts will look at a player's stats and think, "Why on earth did they sign him for that amount?" He's going to receive $2M more than this guy when he scored 2 touchdowns less and rushed for 150 yards less than him? How? The answer is quite simple. That team values that player's future services more than the other. That team is going to pay that player more money because they believe throughout that contract, he's going to outperform the other. Overpays can never be truly recognized until that contract is over.
Sometimes, that can be the anecdote whenever a team pays a WR3 from another team, WR1 money, despite that player not exactly having the stat sheet of a WR1. That team believes that wearing their uniform, in their system, that player can become a WR1, and they're going to pay him to do that. You don't pay a Super Bowl-winning Quarterback a record-breaking contract to just show up and sit on their hands and collect a check just because they won a Super Bowl once. You pay them that contract to go and win you another Super Bowl.
That's what makes the current situation the Packers have with Elgton Jenkins requesting an extension interesting in a way. From the outside looking in, many fans are disgusted with the situation. "He should play out the contract he currently has." Or, "He gets paid a lot of money already; he should be happy with that." The latter comment is always funny. Imagine negotiating a raise with your boss at your job, and your boss says, "You make enough already; you should be happy with that." That type of comment will likely cause you to want to walk out on the spot. Also, imagine your coworkers making more money than you do, despite you having superior production to them. It doesn't matter what amount of money you make; you're going to want more to achieve your "worth."
When Elgton Jenkins signed his four-year extension in December of 2022, he was slated to be the Packers' left guard of the present and future up until his contract expired in 2026. There were times when Jenkins slid over to center, but he only did so on a needful basis when injuries occurred to current centers. With the signing of left guard, Aaron Banks, to a large four-year contract in free agency, it became obvious that Jenkins was going to be asked to move to center permanently. This move comes with a bit of a caveat.
Generally, NFL centers do not make as much as guards. Jenkins is a proven guard with two Pro Bowl appearances. If he moves to center, how is that going to work out when he attempts to negotiate a new contract following the 2026 season? Is he going to be asked to accept center money from the Packers? Or will he be compensated fairly for his abilities to play all over? He is willing to move to center, but he does not want to do so if it could jeopardize his future contract negotiations.
For the statement that Jenkins should play out his deal as negotiated in 2022, this is a fair ask. However, the terms of his situation have changed. He is no longer going to be playing left guard; he will be playing center instead. Due to this change in his situation, he believes he should be able to negotiate an extension now to give himself that job security and make his move to this new position worth his time. Considering the change in Jenkins' status is more voluntary and is him doing the team a favor, his request isn't as ridiculous as some think.
What if a Pro Bowl wide receiver were asked to play running back by their team? Running backs make considerably less than receivers. How could that receiver feel good about contract negotiations in a year, knowing that due to this change, they could be paid significantly less? They might ask to negotiate their extension now and avoid that risk.
Teams pay players not for what they've done necessarily, but for what's to come in the future. Elgton Jenkins is well aware that if his future is center, his past as a guard may not matter, and he may not be compensated as well as he would be a left guard, so he's reluctant to make that move without the Packers adding a bit of collateral or job security to the negotiation table.
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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz and Bluesky @gmeinholz.bsky.social for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.
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Comments (38)
maxximus
July 22, 2025 at 09:47 am
and i thought this article was going to be of another tone, but i'll bring it up - team's pay for future so just because EJ was a top level guard 4 years ago doesn't mean he should be paid like one for the back half of his career, regardless of what position he wants. He's still a good LG but he isn't an all-pro or up for discussion as best in the league anymore (which is also a reason they figured signing Banks and moving EJ would be doable - they don't move the best LG in football if they thought he still was).
I support players getting all they can and deserve, but i fail to see how the analogies of "what if your boss told you that you don't need a raise" work - it is not the same because most people don't sign contracts for multiple years with their employers. I understand EJ's feelings, but it doesn't change that he is under contract. If he wanted to try and be paid top dollar every year, he should play on 1 year contracts. There's give and take with signing longer, he got the "take" by getting his money that covered him in event of injury/ending his career, etc. so now it's time for the "give" in which you have to show up for part of a contract he deems beneath him/his value.
Thegravedigger
July 22, 2025 at 04:03 pm
You make a great point that nobody ever makes. Ej had no problem signing that deal because it gave him security. He just had an ACL injury right before he signed if I remember correctly. I get his point here, but as you said he couldve did some bet on yourself Kirk cousins deals and instead he chose security
crayzpackfan
July 22, 2025 at 09:49 am
If only we had another viable option at center or a youngster who looked like he was really ready to step up. Then we just move Jenks over to RG under this current contract and problem solved. If only I guess...
Ihappydirt
July 23, 2025 at 12:52 am
I mean Monk, but maybe they don't feel he's ready or equivalent ...
This is not a bad idea, but it feels like GB is going to go big on the line (ala Phil) with Banks and Belton, and would like EJ at center.
dobber
July 22, 2025 at 09:50 am
I agree with your premise, Greg. Teams that regularly pay for past performance or out of "loyalty" rapidly end up with an old, declining, and expensive roster and a cap loaded with dead money. We like to point to DBak in this case--the Packers were forced to take their chances on a guy they might not have extended because Jason Spriggs failed. I'll take a young roster and a forward-looking succession and roster-building plan any day. You paying attention Kwesi?
"What if a Pro Bowl wide receiver were asked to play running back by their team?"
I think this comparison is a bit of a stretch. I think G<-->C isn't nearly the reach that WR<-->RB is.
Savage57
July 23, 2025 at 06:45 am
Ty Montgomery approves this message.
Cheezehead72
July 22, 2025 at 10:35 am
This is a fair argument but not very well thought out. I understand that a player wants to make as much as he can whether he is worth it or not. I do have issues with a player not honoring the contract he signed. In Jenkins' case he signed a contract to play for the Green Bay Packers. I do not believe the contract states he will play left guard or either guard position. I might be wrong on that. He is being paid decent guard salary to play center that puts him in the top five of centers.
The arguement about Banks does not cut it either. So if they signed a RG for the same amount of money as Banks or Banks was signed to play RG and they keep Jenkins' at LG that means it would be ok for Jenkins to hold out for more money even though he is playing guard. No Jenkins signed the contract and the team made financial plans expecting Jenkins to play out his contract so he needs to play. In the end Jenkins is getting paid good money to play a position in a childs game.
Lastly this argument as weak as it is depends on the idea that after the contract expires Jenkins only alternative is to sign as a center for the Packers or any other team. Yes the Packers could tag him and keep him at center but his salary for that year would be much higher as all lineman are considered the same so that would not happen. Jenkins best move is to show up, play well, and after his contract is over he will get paid by a team to play guard or center because he is a good lineman and every team needs linemen.
Its simple shut up and play or retire. Stick to the contract you agreed to.
13TimeChamps
July 22, 2025 at 11:18 am
"Stick to the contract you agreed to."
If only the teams would do that as well, instead of asking players to restructure once the big money comes due in the contract or release them outright. I'm not saying that's what's happening here, but it happens all the time throughout the NFL.
Cheezehead72
July 22, 2025 at 12:11 pm
Teams are sticking to the contract most of the time when they restructure or release a player. The player receives their guaranteed money the rest is if the player stays on the team. That is the contract. Plus many times the player can go out and sign another contract with another team. When they restructure the contract the player gets more money paid to him right away providing him with more guaranteed money. Looks like the player wins when that happens.
Bitternotsour
July 22, 2025 at 12:26 pm
it's straight forward, if the money isn't guaranteed, it isn't contractually obligated. both sides abide by the CBA, which is, you know, collectively bargained.
13TimeChamps
July 22, 2025 at 02:03 pm
You seem more knowledgeable than myself on the subject so I defer to you. The business, contracts, salary cap part of football has always been of minimal interest to me. The 3 hours or so a week they provide me entertainment has always been my primary focus.
I've always liked Jenkins as a player. I hope they get this worked out.
LLCHESTY
July 22, 2025 at 07:44 pm
Do you expect teams to follow the contract as well? How many players on the Packers actually get the back loaded 4th year?
Ihappydirt
July 23, 2025 at 12:59 am
Yeah, but he sees the writing on the wall that if they can replace him they will do it next year and cut him free to save a big cap hit next year (that they pushed back for contract purposes). I like the guy and believe he could be a great center, but he's getting older and he knows Gute and GB likes to be younger.
TarynsEyes
July 22, 2025 at 11:06 am
How long does Jenkins actually have with the team, regardless of position? He's play will decline, and if the FO is thinking he's the guy for another 4 years, then there is a bigger problem than moving him to C because they're not sure if they have a good enough player to keep him at G. The OL needs help, and thinking Jenkins is the 4-year future as part of it is nuts. He's already overpaid for wherever he plays, and giving him more won't stop his decline or straighten out who plays where issue at hand. The FO seems to be one step away from hammering a square peg into a round hole, and not at one OL position.
crayzpackfan
July 22, 2025 at 11:12 am
I agree with you. Maybe If they restructure his two years left into a two year with guaranteed money maybe? Not thinking he would go for that anyway? But like you stated, I don't see a 4 year extension for him as wise business unless they give themselves a huge out after 2026.
Cheezehead72
July 22, 2025 at 11:17 am
He has this season and next. He is paid 12 mil this year and 18 mil next year. He is 29 years old. Yes his play might decline but this is when many OL hit their prime. He could cash in in two years if he continues to play at a high level.
I do not see the Packers releasing him next year because of the cap hit. I do see the Packers trying to restructure or just letting him play out his contract.
Cheezehead72
July 22, 2025 at 12:39 pm
My mistake on this comment. After looking closer at his contract if the Packers release him after this year they will save $20 mil. I guess I will not be replacing Ball anytime soon.
BuckyBadger
July 22, 2025 at 11:31 am
You do pay for what they will do while they are under that contract. It is why I am OK with Tom's deal. It is a big one but it will be passed up before the 1st preseason game and will look cheap midway through it. The deals I worry about are the 3rd contract when the player is aging and more acceptable to injury. Makes perfect sense for EJ to want a new deal, he and his agent know that every year makes it harder to get demand that top dollar. He is changing positions and wants his current work to be his edge in negations. For the Packers EJ is 29 and probably past his prime. How many more years can he give the team worth that top dollar deal? Don't want to lose EJ but the Packers don't want a big cap hit on a player in his 30s.
Cheezehead72
July 22, 2025 at 12:13 pm
Tom's deal is big but not out of the ball park. If he keeps playing well the Packers made a good deal.
PackerBackerAZ
July 22, 2025 at 11:55 am
Because the Packers felt Jenkins might be needed at left tackle, when he signed the contract in 2022, they overpaid him at left guard. He is now way overpaid at center. I don't see where Jenkins has any leverage for renegotiation. To be honest, I don't see why he should feel undervalued in any way. He's making elite center money and, given his last performance at center, is probably overpaid.
Alberta_Packer
July 22, 2025 at 11:56 am
I think that the principle of Occam's Razor is in play with the Jenkins issue - i.e., - choosing the simplest explanation from all. That being greed - as Jenkins and his agent attempt to pressure the Packers into guaranteeing a portion of his last year - through a hold-in and by feining a hold-out. When it's definitely not in the Packers interest to do so. So in reply - I simply remind Jenkins (and his agent) about the legality of a binding contract.
TarynsEyes
July 22, 2025 at 12:13 pm
"I simply remind Jenkins (and his agent) of the legality of a binding contract".
How is the contract worded? Does it say that the player agrees to play football for the Packers, or does it say, the player agrees to play LT/G/C etc., for the Packers?
The first gives the Packers the leverage, the latter to Jenkins.
Alberta_Packer
July 22, 2025 at 12:21 pm
As the Packers like their O-linemen to potentially play multiple spots - I highly doubt that they would eliminate this option with restrictive legal language.
TarynsEyes
July 22, 2025 at 01:01 pm
Yes, and why the player who got paid for the high value position, shouldn't have an issue having to play for the lesser, especially while retaining the higher pay day.
Leatherhead
July 22, 2025 at 12:11 pm
I think Jenkins likes the Packers, and the Packers like Jenkins, and he's a good player for us. He'll be a good Center for us. Jenkins doesn't want to be a cap casualty after this season. I get the impression that some of the posters here think this is an adversarial situation, and I don't think it is. The Packers have Tom locked up for 4 years. Morgan, too, if they wish. Belton. Why not extend Jenkins a little? This is The Love Window. All in? Super Bowl or Bust? We should be finding ways to keep our good players around, and that would include Jenkins.
I'm 100% confident the Packers and Jenkins will work something out that benefits the team and Jenkins. He's the leader of the offensive line and the most veteran player we have on offense. And a pretty good player.
TarynsEyes
July 22, 2025 at 12:22 pm
"This is The Love Window. All in? Super Bowl or Bust? We should be finding ways to keep our good players around, and that would include Jenkins".
If they don't win, or get into the SB, why would you keep players that were obviously not good enough to win it all, or get in it?
What if the players are good enough, but Love isn't? Do you stay with Love and waste the good players years?
What if this SB or Bust ends with a first round exit as a 7th seed or missed the playoffs altogether? How long before the tears come for the contracts given to those who don't achieve what they got paid to do.
Do you honestly think the better teams are worried about the names on this roster?. No. They're a middle of the pack roster at best, and hope for better is all we have right now.
Ihappydirt
July 23, 2025 at 01:06 am
I like this take, Leatherhead. More measured than many and I believe it's close to what's actually happening right now.
Ihappydirt
July 23, 2025 at 01:10 am
BTW, how's it going. Haven't talked much since Vic was in charge!
NJMagic
July 22, 2025 at 12:16 pm
Word is he is not asking for a RAISE. He wants the remaining years guaranteed so that he will play out his contract. That doesn't seem unreasonable on his part with the move being asked of him- and i suspect there is a middle ground where they guarantee this next year and perhaps not the final year.
One aspects that seems to be flying under the radar is that nobody is panicking b/c the OL has options even if he doesnt sign - kudos to BG for investing in the line (perhaps under the radar from this group because it is a sign of a good job by BG instead of criticism...)
NJMagic
July 22, 2025 at 12:27 pm
From Acme today - even MORE sense:
"the best compromise if Green Bay is going to make one, is for Jenkins to ask the team to convert most of his $18.5 million base salary in 2026 into a roster bonus that would trigger early in the next offseason. The money doesn’t have to be guaranteed automatically, but it would become guaranteed on a specific date (such as the third day of the new league year).
i.e., Same flexibility for Packers to cut him if they want to, but forces them to do it EARLY in FA so he doesn't get Jaire'd.
GregC
July 22, 2025 at 12:53 pm
Yes, I read that Acme article, and it makes sense. It would be nice if this was all Jenkins wanted. I doubt it, but we'll see. The "injury" does not bode well, as it likely means that this impasse will drag on for awhile longer. Jenkins can afford to sit out, because he doesn't have to worry about Jacob Monk, Sean Rhyan, or Trey Hill taking his job.
maxximus
July 22, 2025 at 01:01 pm
the thing i come back to - his agent and he knew that's how it was set up all along when they signed the contract. it's not like the packers sneakily changed the wording of the contract after he signed it
Cheezehead72
July 22, 2025 at 12:43 pm
Whatever they move from his base salary for next year to guaranteed money is a raise. His base salary only gets paid if he is on the team. So if he gets hurt and cannot play and the Packers release him he gets paid. If the Packers just release him he got paid. He wants to make sure he gets paid.
GregC
July 22, 2025 at 12:25 pm
It's true that contracts are given based on future expectations rather than past performance. But that doesn't explain why Jenkins is looking for a new contract. On the contrary, it explains why the Packers don't want to give him one. They don't often give players third contracts because at that point in their career, their production is likely to decline, usually due to injuries.
While Jenkins has been better than Aaron Banks, Banks got the big contract because he is young and is viewed as an ascending player. Giving that kind of money to Jenkins at this point would be risky, at least if a lot of it is guaranteed after more than a couple years.
I was hoping the Jenkins holdout would lead to a new contract with a manageable cap hit in 2026, but the only way to make that palatable for Jenkins would be to give him significant guaranteed money at least through 2027 and maybe 2028. But that would be risky for the team, due to his age. So I just don't see any common ground here that could be the basis for a new contract.
Bitternotsour
July 22, 2025 at 12:32 pm
I contend that (my) fandom is much more entertaining not concerning myself with cap hits or contracts. I've never seen the Packers unable to field a 53-man roster due to cap constraints. And conversely, I've never seen a player on the field who isn't getting paid.
LeotisHarris
July 22, 2025 at 02:41 pm
Yep, another stock sale is our "there's always money in the banana stand." Came close in 1950.
HarryHodag
July 23, 2025 at 07:48 am
Jenkins has a strong negotiating position. Who is going to play center if he doesn't? Monk isn't there yet. As we saw last year Rhyan isn't as good at center. The Packers should guarantee his money or risk having a gaping hole in the middle of their offense.
Bitternotsour
July 23, 2025 at 08:39 am
He's under contract. He has no negotiating position. He can play or he can retire. He literally has his hat in his hand.