Packer Transplants 204: Will this game even happen?
Corey and Aaron try to get over the loss to the Vikings and try to sort out the mess leading up to the showdown with the 49ers.
By PackerAaron
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Comments (11)
MongoLikePack
November 04, 2020 at 08:26 pm
Hey guys, excellent show! One of your best - way to speak from your heart. Sure, yeah, you guys do that every Transplants but this one felt even more so. That is why I'm a Patreon member... this site is the real cheese. Keep it up fellas - GO PACK GO!!
Thegreatreynoldo
November 05, 2020 at 05:19 am
[Not sure where to put this.]
I've tried to have a running conversation with dobber and others about GB's philosophy. End result as far as I can determine is we don't know what it is.
Is Gute:
1) "all-in" for 2020? 1a: thinks GB has enough talent for 2020? \
1b: thinks current talent is multiple guys short?
2. Is he focusing on 2021?
3. Is he focusing on 2022?
4. Is he on the fence and doing a little for each possible plan?
1. He is not all in for 2020. GMs don't draft projects in the first round in back to back years if that's the case. 1a/1b): Looks like he knows GB could use another piece or two (surprised we have no reports of Gute looking at defensive players other than Snacks). Not sure if Gute thinks we might have jeeest enough or if he thinks the team is say three players short of reaching a SB. For all I know Gute might think GB is short one competent DC.
2 (2021). Possible this was the plan before Covid and the likely cap decrease. Gute reasonably expected to have $35M more in cap space for 2021 in January of 2020. It became fairly clear by March/April and certainly by the draft that the cap was going to go down significantly and possibly massively. Still a chance the NFL and NFLPA reach a new deal raising the minimum cap limit (now $175M) to some higher number.
The Love and Dillon picks can only thought of as building for 2021 or later. But since Gute knew he was likely to lose premium players (Bakh, Linsley, Lewis, Jones/Williams) it is hard for me to think GB is going anywhere in 2021.
3 (2022). First, will GB still have a very good to elite QB? If not, little else matters. If AR or Love is at least very good, still need to hit on draft picks, get some development from previous picks, and possibly hit on FAs signed with money from a higher cap and judicious releases of players. Davante and Alexander will need paydays unless Davante is deemed too old for a third deal.
4. This is the plan as far as I can tell. Free agency in 2019 was just getting the talent up to above average more than win-now in 2019 - perhaps the aim was for 2020 and/or 2021. Gute probably did not expect a rookie HC and AR to win 13 games. Folks who think Gute signed Z for $16.5M to mentor Gary and Amos at $9M to mentor Savage are delusional.
Too many swings and misses. Gute tried to find a street free agent like Gilbert Brown but missed. Signing Lowry for $6.77M AAV would have been money better spent on a fat two gapping lineman who has no pass rush at all instead of a tall DE who has no pass rush and gets run over far too often. It did look like Lowry was ascending - one never knows how a young person will react to getting paid almost $12M. Jaire, Jenkins and Deguara were immediate impact picks. Gary and probably Savage were picks for 2020/2021 and beyond. A little bit for every option.
Guam
November 05, 2020 at 07:30 am
I think your analysis is near perfect TGR. (1) Agreed that Gute is not all in on 2020. (2) 2021 was going to be a tough year prior to COVID19 and much tougher after. (3) Rodgers or Love is the corner stone question for the Packers. (4) Does a middle road ever produce a Super Bowl?
If the 2021 cap means we must lose some key players (and I see no way around that) and Love is the heir apparent, why not accelerate the future by trading Rodgers after this season when we can still get some good draft picks for him? It would mean a rough 2021, but if Love is the future at QB, get him some experience and surround him with better players than Rodgers had via extra draft choices and the money to keep some of our best young players (Jones, King, Williams and the RFAs).
Don't misunderstand, I would hate to see Rodgers go. But I just don't see a SB with Rodgers and otherwise average talent over the next few years. If Gute truly believes Love is the future, then get some extra draft choices and build a team around him which can all mature at the same time.
And who would trade for Rodgers? Think SF which has a SB ready team and doesn't have the QB to get them the championship. And Rodgers gets to play QB for his (near) hometown team. Win- Win?
Thegreatreynoldo
November 06, 2020 at 09:03 am
I've read reports that ESPN and ABC (?) are in a billion dollar bidding war for Thursday Night Football. That contract expires in 2021. All indications are that the networks will pony up big to televise the NFL.
That suggests to me that the cap will rebound in 2022 and beyond. If Ball and Gute are amenable, they could structure the contracts of Bakh, Jones, King, and Linsley to push most the cap hit into 2022 and beyond. They would have to be extremely aggressive though.
More to come on philosophy when we get more evidence: namely how many players GB elects to re-sign after this season. I am a go for it while AR is very good to elite guy. I don't think HOF QBs come along often, or even very good ones. I don't like the odds of any QB (so not a dig at Love) being really good. Probably will have to draft several before GB finds an heir to Favre/Rodgers. Bird in hand argument, really.
Nice downvote - it wasn't me!
link to the article
https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/sports/espn-nbc-billion-dollar-ba...
Thegreatreynoldo
November 06, 2020 at 09:14 am
Eh, the article says TNF gets negotiated and new money flows to the NFL in 2022. That means the deal won't affect the salary cap until the 2023 regular season. The other big deals apparently all get re-negotiated after the 2022 regular season, so the new money flows to the NFL in 2023 and the cap gets adjusted in 2024.
Well, that's not as good but GMs can probably expect a jump in the cap in 2023 and 2024, and a return to normal cap growth for 2022.
dobber
November 06, 2020 at 10:25 am
I think this sums it up pretty well. I think, going into 2019, he was looking at a short term run (which explains the signings) behind ARod, who started 2019 looking like a game manager and not terribly dynamic. I think that's when things started to shift...they let their key FAs walk, did little to manipulate the cap to meet immediate needs through FA or through the draft...sorry, all, but none of the 2020 picks were drafted as the answer to immediate 2020 needs. A team that's planning to be all-in on 2020 either drafts the best player at a position of need, or deals picks for impact vets.
Now the window looks as open as it's going to get...but no moves made at the deadline at either the high-end or low-end investment level. He didn't make a deadline move in 2019...not in 2020. He's not mortgaging the future for a run now...which means, to me, that roster building is projecting out to 2021 and beyond. ARod's play is making him a very valuable commodity in that construction. The upcoming cap contraction couldn't have been foreseen in February or last fall, even. That's the ultimate question: how does covid and the cap fit with any plans the Packers might have made as late as the start of FA last year, when it first became apparent that outside influences were going awry? Did the Packers PLAN to go into the draft looking for an impact rookie or two and shift based on Covid? OR was what they did the plan all along?
Leatherhead
November 06, 2020 at 11:03 am
Honest questions. I like that.
I think The Plan is to win with Rodgers, or else they wouldn't have extended him. They got some vet FAs to help protect him, and they're running more to protect him, and they're throwing shorter to protect him.
So we're using a lot of bargains at the skill positions. Rodgers-to-Adams, of course, but then after that we're looking at UDFAs, guys on their rookie deals, But it works, and as long as we keep Rodgers safe and healthy this offense is going to move . It is good enough to get us to the Super Bowl this year.
We have Rodgers and Adams this year and next
year. We'll still have Tonyan and Sternberger, and Deguara,, and Dillon, and Ervin, and Lazard and EQ and MSV and Taylor and Shepherd. Maybe a flashy new WR
After 2021, hard decisions have to be made. If you really really think Love is ready, you make the switch and use the cap savings to add some talent in FA. If you still think you're better with Rodgers as the starter, then you give him another chance as the quarterback.
Minniman
November 06, 2020 at 01:49 pm
Noted that Love was a healthy scratching against the 49ers leaving Boyle as the clear number 2 QB.
Granted that injury depletion’s at other positions necessitated that depth was carried there, but I believe that it is telling that Love has not replaced Boyle on the depth chart or even allowed to suit up - he must be still REALLY raw.
The way that Rodgers is playing and working with MLF I don’t see him going anywhere before the end of 2022 and even then Love had want to be a consistent and legitimate option.
Also, right now Rodgers is not even a top 5 paid QB any more.
flackcatcher
November 06, 2020 at 12:10 pm
Like Dobber, I think your spot on. The main factor here is age and Cap. While the Packers are a fairly young team, at the key positions of OT and QB they are old. That puts a real time limit on what moves Gute can do with the current roster. When does Gute move to remake the current roster. Heck I know. My guess sometime after Rodgers' contract expires. But as we all know, it all comes down to the Cap. And no one on either side knows what the numbers will look like. One thing I do know, is Gute will not sign third contract players, not if he can replace them via draft or if necessary by free agency. By 2022-2023 this will be a radically different team.
JerseyAl
November 06, 2020 at 07:08 pm
You should have done this as an article. Nice job.
TheNumber1PackerFan
November 05, 2020 at 10:28 am
ok,. so I see why Preston is not making the usual noise we are used to him making. He is to slow! I just saw it in the Minn game, and Ive see it in games prior, Preston literally has a lane to the qb or rb, he comes up a little bit like he is going to bring pressure but by the time he moves his feet he is getting blocked and then cant move is arms and feet quick enough to get off the block. I truly think its because Preston is out of shape. He is moving unbelievably slow!