There is an old adage in football: games are won or lost in the trenches. Generally speaking, if a team can control the line of scrimmage, the likelihood of victory is high. (Unless the opposing quarterback throws three interceptions in the second half, then not much usually matters outside of that.) During the team’s three-game winning streak, the Green Bay Packers, particularly the offensive line, have performed well at the point of attack. But it has not always been sunshine and rainbows for the big uglies on the offensive side of the ball. 

For starters, the unit has had a whole host of different lineups throughout the season, with the only consistent mainstays being center Josh Meyers (99.69% of the team’s snaps) and guard Jon Runyan (95.57%). That has largely been due to injuries. Left tackle David Bakhtiari has only played in every snap in a game this season on four occasions (vs. Buffalo, Dallas, Tennessee, and Philadelphia) due to his lingering knee injury and, more recently, due to an appendectomy, though he did play in at least 95% of the snaps against New England and the New York Jets in Week 4 and Week 6, respectively. Left guard Elgton Jenkins missed Week 1 as well as Week 8. Due to the injuries, tackle Yosh Nijman has started 11 games; Royce Newman has seen time at both tackle and guard; and rookie Zach Tom has filled in nicely for Bakhtiari as Rodgers’ blind side. 

The unit might get reshuffled again if Nijman (shoulder) is unable to go versus the Vikings, an absence that may loom large because of Nijman’s overall body of work in 2022. The former undrafted tackle has been one of the best offensive tackles in pass block win rate (9th; 93%) and the best offensive tackle in run block win rate (86%), according to ESPN Analytics. If Bakhtiari is able to go on Sunday, which quarterback Aaron Rodgers hinted could be the case during his weekly appearance on the Pat McAfee Show, and Nijman is unable to go, then it would make the most sense to move Tom to right tackle to replace Newman given Newman’s play on Sunday against the Dolphins. The Ole Miss product committed two penalties and was one of the worst-graded players on the team, according to the Athletic. 

Regardless, despite the constant retooling of the offensive line, the unit has made more than a favorable impression. When combining ESPN and Pro Football Focus numbers, the Packers’ pass protection ranks 3rd in the NFL. Looking specifically at ESPN, Green Bay is 12th in run block win rate (72%). Another feather in the unit’s cap: they are seventh in sacks allowed (29). 

Blend of the PFF and ESPN pass protection measures to rank teams in pass protection

The Eagles and Ravens might have good offensive lines pic.twitter.com/41KZGq4NTH

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 27, 2022

All of those figures are significant when viewed in the proper context, not only because of the different combinations of players but also because of their early performances, particularly against the Jets in which they allowed four sacks. One of the reasons why the offensive line eventually grew stronger was moving Jenkins from right tackle to left guard, a position he is far superior at. Plus, Tom, the 2022 fourth round selection, has more than held his own at the left tackle position in No. 69’s absence. 

If the Packers are able to start their best five on Sunday – from left to right: Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Meyers, Runyan, and Nijman – they should be able to assert their dominance against an opposing front that has struggled throughout the 2022 campaign. While the Vikings are averaging 2.4 sacks/game, good for 15th in the NFL, they are 28th in pass rush win rate (34%) and the lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks has certainly been one of the reasons why the secondary ranks dead last in the league in pass defense, allowing 281.5 passing yards per game. Further, the unit up front has offered little resistance against the run – their 30% run stop win rate ranks 17th while they are allowing 120.8 rushing yards per game, which is 19th in the NFL. 

There is nothing quite like watching the big boys battle in the trenches in late December in the cold. Against a divisional rival with the season on the line.