5 Things to Watch in Packers vs Texans: Alexander vs Diggs

Jaire Alexander will look to continue his domination of Stefon Diggs in their sixth career matchup.

Jaire Alexander vs Stefon Diggs

Going back to his Vikings days, the combination of Alexander and Diggs has usually led to fireworks.

Whether it is smashing one of Diggs’ teammates into him on an attempted screen, or telling him he is a “little boy” on the way out of the tunnel, Alexander has brought the heat when facing Diggs in the past, often getting the best of the battle.

In five previous meetings, Diggs has been targeted seven times when covered by Alexander. The corner has allowed just three receptions for 21 yards. He will likely be nagging Jeff Hafley to let him shadow Diggs, although this would require a defensive shakeup.

As receivers often do as they age, Diggs has moved primarily into the slot, while Alexander mostly operates outside.

But with Keisean Nixon (more on him shortly) showing he is capable of playing outside corner, and star receiver Nico Collins missing this game, it may allow Alexander to move inside and take on Diggs this Sunday.

Tank Dell vs Keisean Nixon

If Alexander does get the Diggs assignment, that would likely mean Nixon starting at outside corner once again, and potentially spending a good deal of his afternoon across from Tank Dell.

Dell’s role had initially been muted after the acquisition of Diggs, with him and Collins hogging targets, but with Collins now on injured reserve, the door has opened again.

The undersized, twitchy receiver is an excellent route runner and plays bigger than his size, shown by his ability to play and consistently win on the outside.

His presence might make the Packers think twice about letting Alexander focus mainly on Diggs, as regardless of whether it is Nixon, Eric Stokes or Carrington Valentine lined up across from him, Dell will be a handful.

Houston’s depleted defense

A huge part of what has made the Texans so successful in the first six weeks, helping them to race out to a 5-1 record, has been their defense, which is allowing the third-fewest yards per game in the league.

Ahead of this game though, Houston has been hit by a barrage of injuries which will leave the unit compromised.

Azeez Al-Shaair, Kamari Lassiter, Henry To’o To’o, and Jimmy Ward will all miss Sunday’s game, while Folorunso Fatukasi is questionable to play. Mario Edwards Jr will also miss out through suspension.

They are down to the bare bones on the interior of the defensive line and at linebacker in particular, and that could bode well for a Packers offense which ranks second in the league in rushing yards per game.

Houston’s defensive backfield will certainly miss Ward and Lassiter as well, and Green Bay has the horses to do damage through the air. There will be no excuses not to follow up last week’s strong offensive performance.

Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson

Zach Tom has gone from strength to strength entering his third NFL season, continuing to establish himself as a top-tier offensive tackle, while Rasheed Walker has settled in after a slow start, playing rock solid football of late.

They will face a stiff test this week against Hunter, whom Packers fans will be familiar with from his days in Minnesota, and Anderson, a former 3rd overall draft pick.

The pair have combined for 10 sacks already this season, with Anderson in particular pushing on from his rookie year and nearly matching his 2023 sack total already. 

With the rest of the defense dealing with injuries, if Tom and Walker can keep Hunter and Anderson at bay, the Packers should be able to do whatever they want on offense.

Can Green Bay beat a good team?

The Packers do not need to apologize for how their wins have been earned, especially since they had to play with a backup quarterback for two games, but it is worth noting none of their four victories have come against teams who currently have a winning record.

A first-half no-show put the Vikings game out of reach, and the Packers also fell to the Eagles, who are the only other team they have played who are expected to be firmly in the playoff mix.

This week will provide an opportunity for the Packers to make a statement that although they are still the youngest in the league, they are not the same inconsistent team from last season.

The difference between being 4-3 and 5-2 is tangible, and with the Vikings and Lions facing off this weekend, a Packers win would keep them well in contention for the NFC North division title.

 

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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres

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Comments (7)

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Susieq's picture

October 19, 2024 at 04:43 pm

As always watch Jordan Love - he is now 12-12 in the regular season as a starting quarterback.

Last season Jordan finished the season ranked 26th in passing accuracy/completion % among QB that had attempted at least 143 passes and 19th in lowest interception % per attempted pass among QBs that had attempted at least 174 passes

This 2024 NFL season Jordan Love after 6 games ranks 30th in lowest interceptions per pass attempt with 4.1%. For the 32 NFL QB's with at least 77 pass attempts only Will Levis 5.6% and Anthony Richardson 7.8% are throwing more interceptions per pass attempt than Jordan Love.

When it comes to passing accuracy Jordan also ranks 30th in completion percentage. For the 32 NFL QB's with at least 77 pass attempts only Jacoby Brissett - 58.5% completion % - and Anthony Richardson - 50.6% completion % - have been less accurate.

Pro football reference takes passing accuracy a step further and measures what they call "On Target" passes and calculate an On Target % by dividing on Target passes by Passes Attempted, excluding spikes and throwaways from Passes Attempted. Here Jordan with a 69.2% On Target % ranks 31st out of 32 QBs with at least 77 pass attempts.

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White92's picture

October 19, 2024 at 05:51 pm

Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting.

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LeotisHarris's picture

October 19, 2024 at 06:08 pm

Does PFR have data for what they call "On Target" passes *including* spikes and throwaways for QBs with fewer than 77 pass attempts?

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13TimeChamps's picture

October 19, 2024 at 06:36 pm

It's interesting that you left out that Love is currently tied for 2nd in the NFL with 12 TD passes while missing 2 games due to injury.

Mayfield 15TDs/189att/6 games....Burrow 12TDs/201att/6 games...Love 12TDs/146att/4 games

When it comes to compiling comprehensive QB stats, you seem to be a tad biased.

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bossofallbosses's picture

October 20, 2024 at 12:08 am

Jordan Love in the second half of last season (after MLF opened up the playbook fully, rookie receivers and TE's started developing better chemistry with Love, running the correct routes and not having the worst drop % in the NFL Love ended up 1rst in comp% 70%, first in TD to int ratio 20:1, first in QBR 81, first in PFF 91,7 grades for all QB's. Jordan Love was the best QB in the NFL per all these metrics.

Jordan Love had missed part of Camp due to salary negotiations this year, and only had 2passes in preseason. GB is notorious for sucking ass including HOF QB Rodgers in game one if they miss most of preseason. Love was no exception as he struggled and having the worst field conditions in NFL history didn't help and he tore his MCL to end the game. He went 20 days without practicing and came back vs the Vikings and played on one leg for the first 2 games back.

Finally, vs AZ he qas fully healthy, on time and in sync with his receivers having a couple games as warm ups, and good field conditions. He ended up with an 81 QBR, 4 TD's 69% comp% and no turnover worthy passes and an accuracy percentage that was #1 in the NFL that week and basically starting right where he left off in the second half of last year as the best overall QB in the entire NFL. Apparently Love just needs a couple tune up games, full health, and a non shitty field to be elite as usual.

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GregC's picture

October 19, 2024 at 06:19 pm

Not sure that Diggs' 7 targets while being guarded by Alexander are of any significance. That's a very small sample size. A more interesting stat is that Diggs has TD catches in 8 consecutive games against the Packers, dating back to 2016. This is tied with Randy Moss's streak against the Packers, and if Diggs catches one on Sunday, he will be tied for second for having the most consecutive TD catches by any receiver against ANY team. He would trail only Bob Hayes, who had TD catches in 12 consecutive games against the New York Giants. So please Packers, let's keep this guy out of the end zone. I never liked him, and I still don't.

Considering how many defensive players the Texans are missing, I'm not sure that this will be a "quality" win if the Packers prevail, but then, I don't really care about that anyway. I agree that our OTs are the key to winning this game. If they hold those edge rushers in check, good things will happen.

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bossofallbosses's picture

October 20, 2024 at 12:33 am

Texans backup LB's have much higher PFF scores than the starters and some fans are saying they're upgrades and very excited to see their LB's in this game step up big.

The CB out has a 61 PFF his replacement has a 71 PFF and S out has a 64 PFF grade and replacement has a 65. So the so-called backups have actually been better than the starters.

Overall the defense of the Texans are below average vs the run, nearly last vs the run out of shotgun, worst in the NFL vs play action pass, terrible vs the deep pass.

Tom has dominated hunter in the past. Sheed is a great pass blocking OT but sus in the run blocking department and is a lock for at least 1 penalty per game.

Diggs is a non threat vs GB under the Jeff Haffley system. He's going to take out their best option. JA in bump and run on Diggs means he's locked up for the entire game easily. JA said he's a lil boy and I believe him.

Stroud and the Texans are drastically overrated. The 2 high quality opponents in the Vikes this year and Ravens last year held them to 10 pts and 7 pts on offense and scored 34 points each vs the Texans. Mixon is an average RB at best and when you shutdown the Texans running attack their entire offense crumbles like a cookie.

Stroud loves to throw short passes to the flats which is y man and bump and run coverage is crucial in this game. He'll then resort to passes over the middle with RB dump offs and TE dump offs. This is where Cooper and Eric Wilson can dominate.

Then if you take out the flats, dump offs, run game then the 2 things he has left is deep passes which is an instant Mckinney int so that's a no go zone or the RB screens. GB has struggled heavily in RB screens but have improved recently with Evan Williams, Brooks and Cooper receiving many more snaps as the starters at their respective positions.

If all that's taken out of the equation then all that's left is QB runs and Stroud isn't much of a threat but if u leave Cooper as a spy then he's not a threat at all except a threat to get injured or fumble the ball. They could try crossers and pic plays if they catch gb playing too much man to man coverage. Maybe some trick plays perhaps.

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