Are The Packers Playing With House Money?
Or, should they just think they are?
By Kalani Jones
It’s finally here, ladies and gentlemen. We’ve been dreaming of this weekend for almost exactly a year. On January 12th 2025, the Packers were eliminated by the Eagles, and we’ve been waiting for our next crack at a championship ever since. Well, it is time.
It’s been a hell of a time to get here too. The Packers arrive to the playoffs battered and bruised, riding a four game losing streak. Their prize jewel, Micah Parsons, out for the year, along with Tucker Kraft, Devonte Wyatt, and about ten other players on IR. Green Bay still got their ticket to the dance, and even though expectations are understandably diminished, could shock the world with a playoff run.
Or would they?
Would it surprise you to learn that the Packers are actually favored in Chicago this weekend? By about 1.5 points, at the time of this writing, in fact.
Is this the first time that a seven seed has actually been favored in the wildcard round? I’d imagine it must be, and I’m having a hard time deciding whether it speaks more to the Packers or the Bears. I can’t imagine that either team inspires much confidence at the national level.
Obviously, there is so much to be gained in winning this game. Playoff bonuses and checks for the players, resume builders for the coaches. Winning playoff games are the goal. That’s all well and good, but listening to people talk about this historic matchup, it seems to be almost entirely to do with gaining bragging rights for the summer over the other.
And I want to be clear that I think there’s nothing wrong with that. Whatever your thoughts are on how far the Packers can go, and how beatable the Bears are (extremely), the Seahawks await next week. How much pressure does that game carry?
Or… are the Packers once again playing with house money?
Let me explain.
“Playing with house money” means gambling or taking risks with money you’ve already won. In sports terms, it means that since you’ve already won or “exceeded expectations”, you can afford any outcome that comes now. It has a psychological name, the "house money effect". People are more willing to take risks with money that they've "won" rather than money that they've "earned".
Take a flashback to a couple years ago, to the magical time of 2023. Barbenheimer was hitting theaters, AI was only beginning to enter the public consciousness, and the Green Bay Packers had a new quarterback.
The team started that season 2-5, seemingly on their way to a top draft pick and some kind of change. Had the team’s trade of Aaron Rodgers been a mistake? Was Matt LaFleur ill-suited to overseeing the changeover at quarterback? The whispers were, at that point, gaining volume.
Of course, the struggles were somewhat expected. No one knew what the team’s offense would look like that season. Internally, the team had every confidence in Jordan, but unknowns are a scary thing in the NFL, for fans, coaches and fellow players. It wasn’t just struggles though, there were stretches where the team looked just plain old bad. The lowest point was probably the Monday Night game against the Raiders, where the Packers lost 13-17, and Love threw three picks along the way. This was after losing to the Lions, but still before getting walloped by the Vikings. It was not a great moment in Packers history, but again it wasn't unfair to be expected. It was generally understood that the Packers were entering a sort of "soft rebuild" or "reload" stage of the roster. They weren't expected to make the playoffs that year, as the youngest roster in the league.
So how did the team respond? By going on a 6-2 run to end the season, with Love lighting the league on fire along the way. They snuck into the playoffs as the seventh seed, and you already know what happened then.
Was it the earlier struggles in the season that allowed the team to play a little looser? Take a few more risks? Did embracing the "house money" of it all allow the Packers to walk into AT&T Stadium and leave with Jerry Jones' lunch money? Maybe that's a bit reductionist, and not giving enough credit to the incredibly hard work that the players put into every game. But as I mentioned, when you are an organization that finds itself so far ahead of the "timeline", can't you afford to just go where the wind takes you, so to speak?
Their magical run ended the next week in San Francisco to the eventual NFC champions, but the hype never died.
In 2024, the expectations were now sky high. It was only natural to assume that the fire they had caught on would last into next season, as the young team gained another year of experience together. They entered that season as the youngest team in the league again, and quickly fell to Earth. Love was consistently injured and struggled to get into a groove. The receivers struggled. Still, the team finished 11-6, good for... seventh place again. In a normal season, the Packers are probably competing for a NFC North title that season, but they had the unfortunate luck of having a 14 and 15 win team in their division that year. They entered the playoffs on a losing streak and with injuries mounting (sound familiar?). There were positive signs of growth all around, but the team seemed to struggle against the truly elite teams that they came up against.
Their playoff game in Philly never got off the ground, and came to an embarrassing 22-10 conclusion.
We now find ourselves on the cusp of writing the final chapter of the 2025 season, and for better or worse, it will be defined by the postseason result. The Packers stand with ten players on IR, and eleven more on the injury report. It's not fair that this is the version of the Packers that is available at the end, but injuries are the unfortunate reality of the sport we love so much. Super Bowl expectations went out the window as the injuries mounted, most notably with Micah Parsons', but where does that leave the playoff games still to play?
I'd love to see the Packers re-embrace that house money mentality of 2023. After all, is it really all that different? Green Bay is all but counted out from the championship discussion as of now. And yet, they still have a franchise QB, dangerous receiving weapons, and a defense that's proven to still be capable of shutting down the Bears. Why can't the Packers still go on a run? That's what I'd like to see out of them on Saturday night, and that's the mentality that they are going to need to get any further than Chicago too.
Only time will tell how this will all play out, but I can't wait to see.
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__________________________
Co-Owner of the thirteen time world champion Green Bay Packers. Sometimes I write about them. Follow me on Twitter at https://x.com/kjones_in_co and on Substack for film breakdowns!
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Comments (63)
T7Steve
January 07, 2026 at 10:02 am
House money. Wait and see.
How 'bout, JUST BEAT THE BEARS?
Really, just get through the game healthy and show the Bears that playoff experience matters (with players AND coaches).
heyjoe4
January 09, 2026 at 05:40 am
Well said. I think for a lot of us, and to paraphrase, "just beating the bears" would be a good season, given that 10 guys are on IR, including Kraft and Parsons.
Of course I'd love to see them go farther than that. For this week, "just beat the bears".
splitpea1
January 07, 2026 at 10:13 am
No, it's different. We finished 2023 with three straight wins and a new starting QB to start the season. We were happy to sneak into the playoffs with little expectations and responded by torching Dallas and almost beating the 49ers. Then we were playing with house money.
This year we had big expectations with the all-in approach executed by our GM. The draft and monetary capital spent was not insignificant. Going "all-in" like that is a gamble, especially when it involves parting with two first round picks. So the Packers need to show something for this--right now, starting by winning the rubber game against the Bears. Sorry, anything less is unacceptable for whatever the reason. It's put up or shut up time.
T7Steve
January 07, 2026 at 10:40 am
Couldn't it actually be considered 3-1st rounders if you include Clark? With Parsons gone wouldn't it have been nice to have Clark inside against the Ravens or anyone else for that matter?
PeteK
January 07, 2026 at 11:29 am
Yes, would be better than what we have, but Clark has had another down year.
T7Steve
January 07, 2026 at 12:42 pm
Everyone did on the Cowboys. He would have thrived on the Packers this season.
Easy to talk certainties now, I guess.
irishgary
January 08, 2026 at 09:56 am
Kenny Clark is 30 years old, so that's a hard no on him being an additional 1st round pick
GreenandBold
January 07, 2026 at 10:54 am
Nicely said . May the Packers “ split “ the uprights with the winning FG pea !
Starrbrite
January 07, 2026 at 06:07 pm
Yep—win or look for other employment LaFluer.
heyjoe4
January 09, 2026 at 05:52 am
Well said and I agree. In order for this season to be considered acceptable, the Packers need to beat the Bears again. Injuries are league-wide and the best HCs make adjustments and win, especially in the playoffs. Look at what Shanahan has done with an injury-plagued Niners team this year.
I don't expect a SB win or even an appearance. I do expect them to beat the Bears and be competitive in the post-season.
stockholder
January 07, 2026 at 10:28 am
yes - the trade of Rodgers was a mistake.
But the bigger mistake
was wasting draft picks to trade up.
Whats done is done.
Re-build -/ Reload was not worth the wait.
Because like a Heinz ketch-up bottle.
It's still hasn't come out of the bottle.
It 's just a spin to make money.
For the glory of the GM.
canadapacker
January 07, 2026 at 12:40 pm
Trading AR was a mistake ???? Not Gute letting him hold the Packers hostage was a mistake. It seems that both AR and Favre got to the point that they thought that they were bigger than the team - both the off the field antics and attitudes that you never saw out of Brady and Peyton. Must be a living in a small town mentality.
stockholder
January 07, 2026 at 02:00 pm
Hostage? It wasn't bigger than the team.
It was about player windows. $$$ and winning now.
Something all GM s admit about rosters.
Rodgers is still playing.
He like #4 led their team to the playoffs.(Minn)
Gute continues to have to turn over the roster.
Small towns have fears, are afraid, and gossip.
The lies spread faster than the truth.
jannesbjornson
January 07, 2026 at 02:27 pm
He swapped Eric Wilson for McDuffie and lost another chip from the Table. His evaluation. Wilson was named first team ALL-PRO for this season playing for Brian Flores, just like Van Ginkle last season. A guy he could have drafted out of Badger. Four more years of this clown burning cookies in the oven? No thanks.
dobber
January 08, 2026 at 07:24 am
"Wilson was named first team ALL-PRO for this season playing for Brian Flores"
But he wouldn't have been playing for Flores in GB. He'd have been playing for Hafley, who doesn't run the same kind of scheme and doesn't use that third LB the same way. Plenty of film on Wilson in that scheme from a year ago where he was decent but not great.
Coldworld
January 07, 2026 at 06:45 pm
With Rodgers contract? Are you serious? No Parsons and perhaps others gone too?
Good grief, let it go. Without that escape we’d not even be in the conversation. Rodgers has done well under Tomlin, but he’s not close to what he was even in 2022.
No, the lunacy was the “we are not idiots” Murphy deal the Jets thankfully helped us escape from under.
Since'75
January 09, 2026 at 08:28 am
"Not Gute letting him hold the Packers hostage was a mistake" - CP
Listen CP....IF...that was the case, than Gute isn't strong enough to be the Packers General Manager.
*******
Murphy and Gute, knowingly offered Rodgers a contract to extend his time here, even with JL on the back burner.
Did Murphy and Gute....not know what they were doing?
Did Rodgers have a gun to their heads?
************
My personal opinion is Rodgers should have been traded back in 2020 when he asked to be traded, and when they could have gotten a Kings ransom for him.
I don't say that in hindsight, i said it back then.
Just like i said trade Favre back at the end of 2005. Again...Kings ransom.
pantz_bURp
January 07, 2026 at 02:44 pm
"Whats done is done."
No it isn't - you still bring up #12/#8. That is your choice and right Stock. I do appreciate your consistency.
I, for one am ecstatic #12/#8 is not on the Packers roster. I appreciate his talent but grew wary of his attitude and disregard for the betterment of the team. [Look what he did to the Jets and the players he wanted brought in]. He didn't seem concerned with making the team better, but rather himself more comfortable. (From my outsider viewpoint)
That is just my opinion.
Pantz B
stockholder
January 07, 2026 at 03:30 pm
his attitude and disregard for the betterment of the team.?
Thats an assumption.
The point is- guys lost their windows.
What was a couple of players away.
Turned into roster turn-over.
I get he wanted guys that he played with.
He worked with the past NYJ OC.
So knowing the offense was his first concern.
pantz_bURp
January 07, 2026 at 06:22 pm
Best to agree to disagree Stock, thanks for the reply.
[Yes, I mentioned it is my assumption. Are your opinions also based on assumption or are you privy to conversations not made public?]
Pantz
Coldworld
January 07, 2026 at 06:50 pm
And how did his guys do in NY? Those signings were a disaster. One reason he’s done better under Tomlin is Tomlin is Tomlin/the Steelers were not that desperate to humor him.
stockholder
January 07, 2026 at 07:48 pm
Yes they did ,MVS?
Rodgers invites the whole bunch over.
They watch film and run plays with him.
The game announcers of Pitt vs Balt. (quote)
Since'75
January 09, 2026 at 08:55 am
burp, burp, belch....
Are you one of those 'Packer fans' that Rodgers hurt your feelings (somehow)?
Not saying 'you' are, just some ungrateful Packer fans in general.
Listen, you're talking about the JETS!!!....
They were a dumpster fire before Rodgers got there, when he got there, and they are a dumpster fire after he left.
**********
I'm different than a lot of you who are butt hurt with hate about Rodgers for some reason or another.
I LOVED what Rodgers did as a Packer.
He displayed QB skills with no weakness in his game, some even say he's the most skilled QB they've ever seen.
See Tom Brady, he said it.
I gave no f*** if Rodgers lied about vaccinations. Or he took his darkness retreat...lol
Or....some fans didn't like his 'body language' or didn't like him yelling at players when they f'd up.
Waa...waa waa, waa......
See Brady and Manning (did the same thing)
I appreciate and respect his presence, and his play as a Green Bay Packer
He carried this team on his back for years and years, and....
Played incredibly!!
You go ahead and hate the man if it makes you happy somehow. 🤷♂️
You all know who you are, it's clearly evident.
When Rodgers gets inducted to the HOF, maybe the Rodgers haters can do something more interesting, like watching Bugs Bunny cartoons, or playing with their leggo sets.
I appreciated and loved having Rodgers as a Green Bay Packer and always will.
Starrbrite
January 07, 2026 at 06:10 pm
Like Stock, I’m an ARod apologist. I didn’t want to let him go. But in hindsight, I wish we would have traded him to the Broncos for would have been a ransom load of goodies.
Oppy
January 07, 2026 at 08:34 pm
The mistake was Murphy not allowing Gute to ship Rodgers' ass out of town earlier.
Since'75
January 09, 2026 at 11:55 am
Did Gute tell you....that he wanted to ship out Rodgers, but Murphy wouldn't allow him to?
Did Gute tell you this on the phone, over dinner perhaps, text, e-mail?
******
People respect what people say, when they 'actually' know what they're talking about.
Think about it Opie.
**********
Rodger haters Unite!
So sad.
Life is too short for hate.
Leatherhead
January 08, 2026 at 10:02 am
When was the last time Aaron Rodgers won a playoff game.?
Since'75
January 09, 2026 at 09:06 am
Good question LH, your hate is strong.....when was the last time MLF/Love won a playoff game?
Two years ago in the wildcard round?
Impressive!
Gee, make room in Canton for MLF,
They can put his display right next to Jordan Loves and Gute's.
Pretty sure.... Rodgers will 'actually' be in the HOF (earned).
**********
The Packers are 1-2 in the playoffs, post Rodgers.
"WINNING" - Charlie Sheen
BuckyBadger
January 07, 2026 at 10:35 am
No they aren't playing with house money. The team's expectations are to make the playoffs and contend. Did the first but not sure about the 2nd due to circumstances mostly out of their control. Super Bowl runs take as much luck as it does talent. Either way a loss to the Bears won't have any Packer fan walking away satisfied.
As to the Packers being favorites, not really. The line has moved back and forth and it is pretty much a pick em game. I have confidence if Love and the main guys left remain healthy (big if considering the year we are having) they should win this game. The Bears are fugazi. They have many lucky wins over bad teams where the ball just bounced there way. Happens in the NFL all the time. If they don't turn the ball over I do trust our defense more than theirs. The money line on Draftkings is -118 which I think is about a 54% chance of winning which feels about right.
Starrbrite
January 07, 2026 at 06:12 pm
Right Bucky, there’s no way we can consider this house money.
Alberta_Packer
January 07, 2026 at 10:50 am
Whatever capital surplus the Packers had accumulated - began to diminish with their tie against the Cowboys. Since then they have made more withdrawals than deposits. Whatever they have left in their account is being managed by a HC who is 3 - 5 in the playoffs. So the immediate outlook is less than optimistic.
GregC
January 07, 2026 at 10:59 am
After the tie with the Cowboys, they went 7-2 and went into Denver at 9-3-1. That's the game in which Micah Parsons got hurt, and they've been 0-4 since then. I don't see how the tie with the Cowboys was any kind of a turning point.
Alberta_Packer
January 07, 2026 at 11:26 am
Packers were favored by 6.5 pts.. A 6.5-point spread suggests that one team as significantly better than the other. Additionally - the over-under for that game was 46.5 - with the Packers D alone allowing 40 points. For me this was the first sign of further trouble.
Starrbrite
January 07, 2026 at 06:13 pm
Right—the Broncos game was a turning point—definitely not the Cowboys.
Coldworld
January 07, 2026 at 11:04 am
There no house money till we have won something. There no winnings yet as we head to Chicago instead of them coming to us had we not choked more than one should-be-safe lead away. Not for home field advantage, not for Green Bay businesses.
If we win, we have to go to Seattle, perhaps the most difficult task in the playoffs this year. Again that’s due to us beating ourselves. If we beat the odds and win in Seattle, then maybe we are just about even. There is a long way to go before anyone should broach the existence of house money.
bjb2012sime
January 07, 2026 at 11:34 am
If indeed Jerry Jones wanted Gary as the player to be packaged with two first rounders for Micah, then Gutey made another ill-advised decision. Clark would have been nice to retain, while Gary will be a cap casualty this off-season.
GregC
January 07, 2026 at 11:51 am
I never heard anything about Jerry Jones wanting Gary. From what I heard, Jones wanted Kenny Clark all along. Also, Kenny Clark was coming off a bad season and was going to be a salary cap casualty after this year. Gary was coming off an unspectacular but not terrible season.
Coldworld
January 07, 2026 at 11:53 am
Jones has made it extremely clear, he wanted a DT and in our case, specifically Clark. Gute said the same after the transaction as well. Clark or no deal, from both sides.
jannesbjornson
January 07, 2026 at 03:56 pm
He then used acquired draft capital to move on Q. Williams who turned in an ALL-PRO year.
LeotisHarris
January 07, 2026 at 08:51 pm
C'mon, JB, the Cowboys haven't been relevant since the mid 1990s and Jerry can take almost total credit for that. JJ's been turning draft capital into shit longer than Gute has been alive. He'll find a way to eff up Q, too.
BuckyBadger
January 07, 2026 at 04:36 pm
Gary wasn't going to be traded for the same reason he won't be cut, this cap number is too high.
dobber
January 07, 2026 at 11:46 am
No such thing as "playing with house money" in the playoffs. It implies there's no risk and only reward, and I don't see it as being any different for any other team in the tournament.
Just play the games.
barutanseijin
January 07, 2026 at 06:29 pm
Exactly. The metaphor makes no sense in this context.
egbertsouse
January 07, 2026 at 12:15 pm
They are not playing with house money. They are playing with money they borrowed from the local loan shark and the vig is due next Monday. Lose and Guido pays you a visit with a ball peen hammer.
Since'75
January 08, 2026 at 06:45 am
Lose and Policy pays you a visit with the Paul B. Axe borrowed from Northwestern..
dobber
January 08, 2026 at 07:28 am
...you mean the Gophers, right?
Since'75
January 08, 2026 at 08:22 pm
My bad!!
TarynsEyes
January 07, 2026 at 12:57 pm
A delusional thought. This team hasn't had any house money to play with since Rodgers left. I know, we're supposed to hate him.
The NFL is expanding to 18 games and at least two franchises, which, as things are going, the Packers will likely be automatic 8th seed participants, I guess one might call that house money.
LeotisHarris
January 07, 2026 at 04:32 pm
What the Packers need to do is pull a Notre Dame and become an independent, then negotiate their own broadcast deal with CBS, and have assurances from the other broadcast partners that they will be awarded a playoff spot in the new 16-team playoff in 2028.
Are there enough car dealers and private equity firms to make that happen?
Since'75
January 09, 2026 at 09:14 am
"......since Rodgers left. I know, we're supposed to hate him." - Taryan
No were not, the petulant children who don't know, or appreciate good football, who's feelings get hurt easily, hate him.
Note: Those same people, cry when their Mom burns their grilled cheese, or are told to clean their room, or are told no, they can't buy any candy in the grocery store checkout isle.
canadapacker
January 07, 2026 at 01:19 pm
Definitely playing with house money. And the odds are good because of the fact that we are playing the Bears. It is always nice when you are playing a familiar team. The odds do not favor a team who has won the first 2 games against an opponent in a year when playing them for the 3rd time. But since we choked out the second game - we can put that to bed. The house money to my opinion is that we have some rookies playing and we are kind of playing with one hand behind our backs - missing Parsons, Kraft, Wyatt and Jenkins . That being the case just playing in the game is giving more of our rookies some sort of experience - time to play for some higher stakes and intensity. It is also time for management to see who can cut the mustard and who will not be around next year- because even without a first rounder we know that the team always changes from year to year . The NFL is always a Not For Long league.
pantz_bURp
January 07, 2026 at 02:38 pm
I am going to get behind this version of the Packers and wish them well. I don't hate the Bears, but rather respect them. I like da Bears that play clean and try not to Tonya Harding on the Packers players.
With that said, for me this will be one of the sweetest games in recent memory or most painful since it's da Bears.
PB
House money? House money?? We talkin about playoffs. Hopefully, it will be the house that Love built. ❤️ Is the foundation strong enough?
Since'75
January 08, 2026 at 06:41 am
"I like da Bears......." bURp
Well,
I think i'm going to send you a bear jersey, would you like that?
You still a 5XL?
pantz_bURp
January 08, 2026 at 09:13 am
"You still a 5XL?"
Ahhh S75, you must be confusing me with your old main squeeze...?
Toodles before noodles,
PANTZY
Since'75
January 08, 2026 at 08:26 pm
Good memories....Whole lotta Rosie.
She was a good time. You should be so lucky.
Now......please get rid of that bear stench, before Saturday night.
Packerpasty
January 07, 2026 at 05:17 pm
I've seen the Packers under MLF and Love crap the bed too many times in many unusual ways to get too excited about playoff chances, but beating the Bears would be nice just to shut them and ESPN up for a while...they seem to be one of the new fav's , especially the coach and QB...
EricTorkelson
January 07, 2026 at 05:30 pm
K Jones ( nice write ) THE FINAL CHAPTER 2025 you say ! Well to me how about some Packer toughness how about a little football violence will the Packers be able to slug it out with the Bears, can they avoid multiple game ending injuries ? Can the Packers avoid the stretcher or constantly hobbling into the blue tent ? This has been the 2025 version of the Packers, players getting tackled and then waving to the sideline take me out, or the defense making a hit and getting up slower than the ball carrier they hit. Remember Walter Payton after getting tackled he jumped up faster than he went down every time... How about Ray Nickie 1000 lb coach's tower fell over on him at a practice metal spike piercing threw his helmet and a sprained ankle, yet he finished the practice. Yeah that was years ago times and practices have changed blah blah blah. If the packers stay whole they will beat the Bears, if they turn back into the 2025 Packers they will loose IMHO
THESZOTMAN1
January 07, 2026 at 05:44 pm
"Why can't the Packers go on a run."
One game at a time, Kalani
The Szotman
Tundraboy
January 07, 2026 at 10:40 pm
"And yet, they still have a franchise QB, dangerous receiving weapons, and a defense that's proven to still be capable of shutting down the Bears. Why can't the Packers still go on a run? That's what I'd like to see out of them on Saturday night"
Exactly. For one night I want to see MLF have this team ready and lead, manage and motivate this team for 4 quarters!
Since'75
January 08, 2026 at 06:30 am
Kalani....dude!?
Playing with house money would only be relevant if the team wasn't expected to be in the playoffs.
That's pretty simple.
I mean, ok man, whatever.
pantz_bURp
January 08, 2026 at 09:15 am
Oh, I am okay with your moniker S75, but do you have to use a picture of my wife as well?
Come on man!,
PB
Since'75
January 08, 2026 at 08:33 pm
That's your wife?
and....O.J was innocent.
Detroit won a Super Bowl.
Vikings found their franchise QB.
Deshaun Watson was a great investment for Jimmy Haslam.
But anyway, tell her i said hi and i want the $400 she still owes me...i earned that money!!
heyjoe4
January 09, 2026 at 05:37 am
Great article Kalani. No one expected GB to demolish Dallas in Dallas two years ago, and then hold game with the Niners in Santa Clara.
Last year was not good by those standards. But now, with 10 guys on IR and expectations for even a deep playoff run all but extinguished, they are indeed playing with house money.
Well, maybe not MLF. Just my opinion but he has to beat Chicago to avoid a HC-controversy in the offseason. I don't think it's right, but Policy is in year 1 of steering the ship. If he's gonna make big changes, this is the year.
My Christmas will arrive with a Packers win over the Bears. And they will win.