Green Bay Packers v. 49ers: Behind the Numbers
Here is a look at the numbers and stats the helped define the Green Bay Packers last second win over the San Francisco 49ers.
By Paul_Bretl
What a win. The Green Bay Packers came away with a last-second victory over the San Francisco 49ers to improve to 2-1 on the season.
It's Monday, so that means it is time to take a closer look at their performance by going Behind the Numbers.
25
I discussed this last week after the Detroit game, and although it helps, teams don't need huge rushing numbers in order for the run game to be effective. The important part is that the Packers stick with it -- which they mostly did -- and that the opponent respects it. And that is what happened again this week.
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined to carry the ball 25 times. The duo averaged four yards per rush and had a long of 12--not eye-popping by any means. But by the fourth quarter, those 2-3 yard runs were turning into 4-5 yard runs, and the Niners had to respect that the Packers could run the ball at any point.
1 and 2
I was incredibly concerned about how the Packers' offensive line would hold up against the San Francisco pass rush. It was a difficult road environment against a defense that came into the game with the third-most pressures and an inexperienced offensive line unit for the Packers.
However, they performed very well, including Yosh Nijman, who made his first NFL start and bounced back after a rough opening drive. The offensive line received some assistance from Marcedes Lewis and Robert Tonyan; also, Rodgers got the ball out of his hands quickly, but when it was all said and done, the Packers allowed only one sack and just two quarterback hits, according to ESPN.
261
In my Final Thoughts article, I discussed how the 49ers' cornerbacks could be the part of this defense that Rodgers and the Packers would be able to find success against. The key was giving Rodgers time in the pocket, which the offensive line did.
Rodgers finished the game with 261 passing yards with completions of 25 yards, 47 yards, and 42 yards.
54.7
The Green Bay Packers have a punter. 54.7 yards is what Corey Bojorquez averaged on his three attempts against San Francisco, and this includes a long of 63.
But in addition to those gaudy numbers, as Matt LaFleur has mentioned this season, it's Bojorquez's ability to punt directionally that has really made him effective. Not only is he recording huge distance numbers, but he pinned the 49ers' return man along the sidelines each time, giving him few options when it came to returning the ball.
4.6
The offensive line play along with how this Joe Barry Defense would handle the Kyle Shanahan offense were my two biggest concerns entering the game. But both held up well for the most part.
The San Francisco offense would average only 4.6 yards per play against Green Bay. For some context, the Atlanta Falcons are averaging 4.7 yards per play for the season, and that ranks 28th in the NFL.
We saw Joe Barry dialing up different blitz packages to create pressure, Green Bay forced two turnovers, and San Francisco struggled to get the ground game going.
3.2
I wanted to devote an entire section to the Green Bay run defense and the interior defensive line play. This is a Niners team that relies heavily on the run, and if the defense was going to have any kind of success on Sunday, they were going to have to find a way to slow San Francisco down.
As a team, the 49ers would run the ball 21 times and average only 3.2 yards per carry. The longest run given up by Green Bay was 16 yards. Kenny Clark was incredibly dominant, but we also saw improved play from Dean Lowry and Tyler Lancaster as well.
37
We shouldn't be surprised, but somehow 37 seconds and no timeouts is just too much time for Aaron Rodgers. The Niners were protecting the boundaries and against the big play, which left the middle of the field wide open for Rodgers and Davante Adams to attack.
22
Mason Crosby entered Week 3 with 19 consecutive field goals made, which was tied for the second-longest streak in team history. He would add on three more field goals against the 49ers, including the game-winner from 54 yards. It's easy to forget about the kicker, but Crosby has been so good for such a long time.
5/11, 3/5, and 2-0
Three of the bigger stats that will determine a football game are third-down success, red zone efficiency, and the turnover battle. Green Bay would finish the game 5/11 on third downs, and they'd find the end zone on three of their five red-zone trips. They would also win the turnover battle.
On the flip side, San Francisco found plenty of third-down success, converting 7 of their 11 attempts; they were also 4/4 in the red zone. Given the Niners' efficiency in both of those areas, losing the turnover battle 2-0 was a huge contributing factor to them losing the game.
Too Many
'Too Many' is the number of bad calls by the officiating crew. There was a very questionable pass interference call on Eric Stokes. This crew then somehow missed a helmet-to-helmet hit on Adams, and they flagged Jaire Alexander for a phantom roughing the passer call.
As bad as those were, they also missed an intentional grounding call on Jimmy Garoppolo before half that really swung the momentum of the game as the 49ers then found the end zone.
I hate to nit-pick the refs, it is a difficult job, but that performance on Sunday night was bad.
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__________________________
Born and raised in Green Bay, WI and I still call it home. After my family, watching the Packers, sharing my opinions on the team through my writing and interacting with other fans is my greatest passion. You can find me on Twitter at @Paul_Bretl.
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Comments (31)
PatrickGB
September 27, 2021 at 11:06 am
I agree with your take on the refs. Nuff said before I get too worked up over it.
O- Zero. There is no number for “Heart”. I saw the Packers play with heart for the first time this season. The backups played well against a tough opponent.
baldski
September 27, 2021 at 12:41 pm
My bitch with NFL Refs is that they are not full time. If they continually screw up and get fired, they just go back to their regular day job as lawyers and accountants, etc. Put more incentive on them to not screw up. What the NFL can't afford full time Refs? Cut some of Goodell's $200 million a year.
Philarod
September 27, 2021 at 11:11 am
Good job, Paul!
I enjoyed how the most telling 'numbe'; may have been "TOO MANY".
Agreed, and credit the Pack for still winning under those circumstances.
Coldworld
September 27, 2021 at 11:13 am
I think we have to temper the enthusiasm for the run D. That was not their preferred run attack by any means. That said, the swarming you the ball was definitely encouraging.
Leatherhead
September 27, 2021 at 10:13 pm
Coldworld, I think the run defense paradigm has shifted. Back in the day, you wanted to stuff the run and make your opponent one dimensional. Everybody knew that.
But if a good rushing attempt is 5.0 yards, and an AVERAGE pass attempt is 7.0, ………then why would we want them to pass instead of run? Wouldn’t you rather the ball be in the hands of some RB than in the hands of Brady or Mahomes or Rodgers?
Defensive Coordinators hate those long completions a lot more than they hate that 5 yard run, and as long as you come up with some stops (offensive penalty, dropped pass, turnover, etc.) to get off the field then those run yards don’t mean that much.
Think about it.
HankScorpio
September 27, 2021 at 11:35 am
Add a pretty big number of penalty yards on PI calls on SF pretty far down the field to the 261 yards passing. I think the 49ers got their money's worth on them, too. Legit calls, not very borderline at all.
Instead of 22 for Crosby, I'd just go with 2 for Crosby's jersey. As in the Packers dropped a #2 on the 49ers. Seems an appropriate way of describing what happened at the end.
LayingTheLawe
September 27, 2021 at 11:35 am
2 - 1
CheesyTex
September 27, 2021 at 11:37 am
Holy Crap, an OL with four inexperienced starters did that to an elite DL?
One game doesn't make a career (or does it), but it sure feels good to see a youthful group with that size, strength, and health take a big step forward.
Props to Adam Stenavich (and maybe Luke Butkus, too, who may be doing a lot behind the curtain).
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
September 28, 2021 at 07:02 am
And how about an even bigger prop to Gute and his scouts for selecting and finding those OL? Have done an amazing job. Now need to do same for DL, and ILB's.
CheesyTex
September 28, 2021 at 08:57 pm
Yup. One step at a time.
murf7777
September 27, 2021 at 11:54 am
The Packers proved to me that week one was a exception and not the norm for this team. Even with having to play against the refs, they went out west and beat a playoff caliber team, one that many predict to be top 10 with a chance to make it all the way.
I was impressed with the defense and Mlf and Rodgers play calling. Getting the ball out quickly and staying with the run was extremely important with this young OL. One thing we have to improve on is Rodgers using up the TO’s due to the clock running down. If he had two TO’s remaining with 37 seconds it would’ve gave them a much better opportunity to get closer for Crosby. Crosby is a All-Pro…..period!
edubssports
September 27, 2021 at 12:00 pm
The missed helmet to helmet hit can be blamed on the NFL moving the back judge positioning. In the past they would be in front of the play rather then behind it. If he was lined up in front of the play he sees that hit and the flag is thrown. The NBC rules guy brought this up.
If they call the grounding, the half is over with the runoff.
Houndog
September 27, 2021 at 12:30 pm
edubssports,
I agree and, in regards to the intentional grounding, you didn't need to be a professional lip reader to see MLF tell the Ref "you cost us seven F#@king points"!
gpt999
September 27, 2021 at 04:19 pm
There is NO room in the NFL - or any contact sport - for this type of head hunting! Do you think the NFL officiating "brain trust" is OK with this positioning decision now? They shouldn't be ! A premiere player in this league could have been sidelined because of this bad officiating policy. The NFL should seriously fine this player - which they won't!
baldski
September 27, 2021 at 12:44 pm
Behind the numbers, D. Campbell had twelve (12) tackles, 6 solo.
Lphill
September 27, 2021 at 01:00 pm
So on other posts a lot of negative remarks about Rodgers my question is would the Packers have won this game without Rodgers ? So he goes to his go to guy when he needs too , so does every other QB .
Since'61
September 27, 2021 at 10:40 pm
Agree LP. Rodgers went to Adams because SF had no answer and no one who could cover him. It's as simple as that. If they can't stop him why wouldn't you keep throwing to him? It's too easy. Thanks, Since '61
Roadrunner23
September 27, 2021 at 01:41 pm
The Refs were NBA bad last night, the Packers had to overcome them and the 49ers. That’s a statement win 🏆
Leatherhead
September 27, 2021 at 10:17 pm
I see it the same way. Bad officiating that did us no favors. A signature win. This is the kind of game you win if you’re going to the Super Bowl.
dobber
September 27, 2021 at 01:47 pm
0 -- the number of mishandled PAT/FG snaps by new punter and holder Corey Bojorquez. Some were concerned the holder change at the last second might adversely impact Crosby's kicking, but that hasn't been the case.
Roadrunner23
September 27, 2021 at 02:30 pm
Poor block by Tonyan on the edge tho! That kick was a hair from being blocked 🤭
gpt999
September 27, 2021 at 04:06 pm
Not mention Corey B punted long and accurately! What an upgrade he has been!
Coldworld
September 27, 2021 at 05:59 pm
My concerns were alleviated for the most part once I discovered he was thought to be an excellent holder by prior NFL teams.
Tingham
September 27, 2021 at 01:53 pm
You forgot the most important number. 20 Since 20 didn't play the defense got an immediate upgrade.
10ve 💚
September 27, 2021 at 03:45 pm
0 - the number of false start penalties.
With the young, inexperienced OL, one would have expected a few penalties. But, Rodgers did not try any fancy cadence. Instead, he made sure to help the OL with straight-forward stuff and quick throws.
gpt999
September 27, 2021 at 04:03 pm
The officiating was bad on BOTH sides of the ball! Officials should NEVER make fans and players feel so uncertain about what they are going to do next? Worst officiating I have EVER seen in the NFL! The game should be decided by the players - not by a bunch of old men who think they are the centerpiece of the game! Just like a child, an official should be seen but RARELY heard (literally and figuratively LOL). A game should be remembered for great plays by great players on both sides - not flag-happy officials!
murf7777
September 27, 2021 at 06:17 pm
The worst officiating, not really, it’s more like the norm. I agree there was a lot of bad calls on both sides. Unfortunately, officials are human and at the speed of plays in today NFL it’s easy to miss something or be flag happen so you don’t.
Since'61
September 27, 2021 at 10:45 pm
Yes the officials are human. Then the league should have a process in place that protects the players from the hit on Adams. Use an "eye in the sky" official. Use the replay to check on those type of hits. Call it from NY if necessary but to let hits like that stand when the league is preaching how good they are at player safety is unacceptable.
If the rules to protect players are not enforced what's the point? Thanks, Since '61
murf7777
September 28, 2021 at 07:33 am
I agree it should be like college.
Leatherhead
September 27, 2021 at 09:48 pm
I have some numbers for you Paul: In the 39 games under LaFleur, the Packers have scored at least 23 points a total of 29 times. We’re 26-3 in those games.
The three losses include the 4 turnover OT loss to Indy, a home loss to the Eagles, and the Championship game last year.
So, if we score 23 or more, which we do about 75% of the time, we’re 26-3
If we hold our opponent to 24 or less, which we do about 65% of the time , were 25-0.
Disclaimer: I have been enjoying some bourbon and my count might not be perfect, but the point is valid.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
September 28, 2021 at 07:08 am
Leatherhead,
Bourbon or not always enjoy your commentary. Always well thought out!