The Past

While definitely not as bad as the “Fail Mary” or NFC Championship games, the last time the Packers faced the Chiefs in 2011 was also one that many Packers fans would like to forget.  Sitting at 13-0 and on pace to make history, the Packers stumbled badly against the lowly Chiefs at Arrowhead stadium.  Aaron Rodgers uncharacteristically only completed half of his throws and was sacked 4 times in the process while the defense let Kyle Orton throw for almost 300 yards and a 104.1 QB rating.  Obviously the Packers were a lock to make it to the playoffs at that point and Chiefs were 5-8 and most certainly not but it still stung a little bit by just how off the Packers were that week.  It seems like every once in a while the Packers inexplicably lay a dud; it happened against the Bills last year and it happened against the Chiefs in 2011. 

The Present

(All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, click here for a detailed description of DVOA and DYAR.  And as always defensive DVOA is the inverse of offensive DVOA so negative numbers are better.)  

Technically DVOA at this point is just VOA since Football Outsiders don’t account for opponent strength until the 3^rd game (my assumption is it’s about statistical variation, hence at the moment the Arizona Cardinals are blowing the rest of the league away but only because they’ve played Chicago and New Orleans). 

While you might not have guessed it, Kansas City will be the best team the Packers have faced thus far; while Chicago has a fantastic chance of getting the top pick in next year’s draft, Seattle has been uncharacteristically bad at just about everything. 

The biggest matchup will likely be the Packers running game versus the Chiefs run defense.  While the Packers don’t really rely heavily on the running game, they do prefer to use a balanced approach that helps set up the passing game.  With Eddie Lacy unlikely to be at full health even if he does play, James Starks will have a tough time running the ball against the 3^rd ranked run defense.  On the flip side, the Packers defense should be able to contain a mediocre Chiefs defense with only a handful of talented players.  

The Future

The Kansas City Chiefs have maybe the biggest problem in the NFL: the mediocre team.  Are the Chiefs a dumpster fire like the Browns or Redskins?  Nope, they are a solidly run organization with a good control of their salary cap and roster.  Are they a perennial Super Bowl candidate?  Vegas currently lists them as the 19^th most likely team to make the Super Bowl and I would venture a guess that not many people outside of Chiefs fans would really think that this team is a viable championship contender. 

And that’s a big problem.  The Chiefs aren’t likely to go into full rebuilding mode any time soon but they’re also likely to play well enough at this point that they’ll never pick all that high in the draft as well.  As with the Bears, again this points back to the quarterback; while Alex Smith is a better quarterback than Jay Cutler 9 times out of 10, Cutler is a much better talent and Smith has been shell shocked enough in his 11 years in the league that he’s the epitome of a “game manager” quarterback.  Neither inspires his team, and neither is going to get it done with the game on the line.  Cutler and Smith have comparable contracts and thus both the Chiefs and Bears have the same problem; they can’t win with their current quarterbacks but they also can’t win without them. 

The Chiefs did have a chance to find their quarterback of the future when they had the 1^st overall pick 2 years ago, but unfortunately for them the 2013 draft might have been one of the biggest collective busts in recent memory.  The Chiefs ended up taking left tackle Eric Fisher, who has been a massive bust so far, but its not like the 1^st round produced many stars period.  Of quarterbacks, the most successful might be Mike Glennon and that’s saying something. 

Overall, the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be the most boring of teams; good enough that people who like to watch dumpster fires (the only reason I watch Bears games) will ignore them but bad enough that fair weather fans looking to follow the next Super Bowl winner will steer clear of them as well.  Pundits will throw out a hollow cliché just to fill in the space and I know I had to do much more research than normal simply because I knew nothing about this team.